NATO OPLAN Overview from 09-10

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    Tackling Security Challenges -An overview of ISAFs Mission

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    Tackling Security ChallengesTackling Security Challenges

    an overview on ISAFs Missionan overview on ISAFs Mission

    thth

    Brigadier General BERGER (FRANCE)

    72

    NATO International Security Assistance Force

    Overall Classification of Briefing: UNCLASSIFIED

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    ISAF Cam ai n PlanISAF Cam ai n Plan

    Brigadier General BERGER (FRANCE)

    73

    NATO International Security Assistance Force

    Overall Classification of Briefing: UNCLASSIFIED

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    Purpose & Agenda

    Purpose: Provide information on ISAFs Campaign Plan.

    Agenda:

    Assessment Situation

    Campaign Design

    Concept of Operations

    Risks

    Key Takeaways

    Way Ahead

    Discussion

    74

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    Strategic Assessment

    Situation is serious and the conflict is complex

    Resilient and growing insurgency

    Lack of confidence by population stemming from weak Government of

    Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) institutions, corruption, lack of

    economic opportunity and insufficient physical protection.

    Mission can succeed but requires a fundamentally new approach

    Operational culture of ISAF: focus Counter-insurgency (COIN) on winning

    support of the people.

    Stronger security partnership: accelerate Afghan National Security Forces

    (ANSF) and partner at all levels.

    Responsive and accountable governance: an equal priority with security.

    Internal ISAF organizational changes: Unity of Command, Unity of Effort.

    75

    Time is critical. ISAF must be properly resourced to gain and

    maintain the initiative while ANSF capacity and capability is built.

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    PathwaytoCampaignPlan&Requirements

    Objectives1

    NATO

    The GIRoA is able to

    exercise effectively its

    securit res onsibilitiesss on

    Conduct military operations to

    assist GIRoA in maintaining

    across the country

    ANSF have become

    self sufficient and are

    e ea : a an e nsurgencyno ongerposesanexistentialthreattoGIRoA

    InsurgencyreducedtoalevelwithinGIRoAcapacity

    GIRoA/ANSFcapableofprotecting,

    extension of government

    authority and the facilitation of

    reconstruction and development

    a ng e ea n

    security operations

    Opposing militantforces no longer pose

    NATO SecGen

    tasking toConduct Assessment3

    sovereigntyfrominsurgentthreat

    Plan to Implement

    NATO StrategyCOMISAF

    Overall

    Assessment

    Of Situation

    a threat to stability

    Assessment Population-centriccounterinsurgencycampaign

    Grow and Develop ANSF

    Situation is serious

    Resilient Insurgency

    Crisis of Confidenceamong Afghans and

    Resource

    Requirement

    AnalysisNotes:

    NATO, Com rehensive Strate ic Political

    76

    Improve Unity of Effortand Command

    Mission still achievable

    Military Plan for Afghanistan, 20 April 2009

    Al lied Joint Force Command Brunssum,

    Operational Plan for ISAF (OPLAN 30302

    Revision 4), 9 April 2009

    SACEUR, Memorandum to JFC-B, 1 July 2009

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    MilitaryAssessmentofSituation

    KineticEvents

    700

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    1000

    Winter Poppy

    Harvest WinterRamadan

    PoppyHarvest

    Ramadan Poppy

    HarvestWinter Ramadan

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    800

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    1000

    Winter Poppy

    Harvest WinterRamadan

    PoppyHarvest

    Ramadan Poppy

    HarvestWinter Ramadan

    200

    300

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    500

    200

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    01Jan

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    IDF DF IED SA FIRE 01 Jan 07 30 Se 07

    Kineticeventsareincreasingatasharprate;up300%since2007and60%since2008.

    Talibaninfluenceexpanding;contestingandcontrollingadditionalareas.

    TalibanProvincialShadowGovernors: 2005 11of34; 2007 28of34; 2009 33of34.

    01Jan09 30Sep09

    20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009

    77

    11 Total11 Total 20 Total20 Total 28 Total28 Total 31 Total31 Total 33 Total33 Total

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    ISAF Command Arrangements

    - -

    COMNTM-A/ CSTC-A

    RC(N)

    209 Corps

    RC(N)

    209 Corps209 Corps

    RC(W)

    207 Corps

    RC(W)

    207 Corps

    RC(C)

    CapitalDivision

    RC(C)

    CapitalDivision

    RC(E)

    201 Corps

    ANSANSNMCCANSANSNMCC

    RC(S)

    205 Corps

    RC(S)

    205 Corps

    orps

    CompositionRC(N): 1 CO, 5 PRTs; 2 ANA BDEs

    RC(W): 2 BNs, 4 PRTs; 2 ANA BDEs

    RC(S): 4 BDEs(+), 4 PRTs; 4 ANA BDEsStrength

    78

    RC(E): 5 BDEs(-), 12 PRTs; 6 ANA BDEs

    RC(C): 3 BNs; 2 ANA BNs

    RCs are NATO OPCON to IJC

    ISAF / Coalition: ~107,000

    ANA: ~100.131 Operational: 63.724

    ANP: ~96.377 Operational: 89.030

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    Mission Statement

    ISAF, in partnership with GIRoA, conducts

    population-centric counterinsurgency operations,enables an expanded and effective ANSF and

    supports improved governance and development in

    order to protect the Afghan people and provide asecure environment for sustainable stability.

    79

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    COMISAFIntent

    Purpose

    AssistGIRoAindefeatingtheinsurgency

    ProtecttheAfghanpopulationandseparateinsurgentinfluence

    Gainpopularsupportforthegovernment

    Allowsustainable

    progress

    and

    promote

    legitimacy

    Preventthereturnoftransnationalterroristsandeliminatepotentialsafehavens

    Method

    Conducttheoperationinthreestages:A)GaintheInitiative;B)AchieveStrategic

    Consolidation;and

    C)

    Sustain

    Security.

    Gaintheinitiativeandstopinsurgentmomentuminthenext1218months

    EstablishclosercooperationwiththeInternationalCommunity

    AchieveimprovedintegrationandCIVMILoperationalcohesion

    EndstateInsurgencydefeatedtowithinGIRoAscapacity

    Legitimategovernanceextendstolocallevels

    80

    SocioeconomicprogramsbenefitthemajorityofAfghanpeople

    GIRoA,withISAFsupport,iscapableofassumingtheleadforsecurity

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    TO

    OT

    CampaignStrategy

    ProtectthePopulation.

    PrioritizeeffortinhighdensitypopulationareaswhereinsurgentgroupsoperateprimarilywithdisaffectedPashtunpopulations.Reduceciviliancasualties.

    EnableAfghan

    National

    Security

    Forces.

    Accelerateandexpandindigenoussecurityforcecapacityandcapability.Partnerateveryechelon.

    Neutralizemaligninfluence.

    Identifyand

    report

    corruption;

    forge

    responsible

    and

    accountable

    governance.

    Supportextensionofgovernance.

    Gainactivesupportofthepopulationbyempoweringlegitimatesubnationalleaderswitheffectivepopulationsecuritymeasures.

    Supportsocioeconomicdevelopment.

    Gainactivesupportofthepopulationbycreatingsecurityconditionsthatprovidespacefor . .

    82

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    TO

    OT

    Gain the InitiativeAchieve Strategic

    Sustain Securit

    OPLAN38302Rev4OperationalDesign

    onso a on

    Stage A Stage B Stage C

    PROTECT

    0 1 2 3

    Secu

    rity

    the Po ulation

    ENABLE

    the ANSF

    3 4

    5

    6

    ability

    NEUTRALIZE

    Mali n Influence

    SUPPORT

    Extension of Governance 11 12

    7 8 9 10

    St

    SUPPORT

    Socio-Economic Develo ment

    1 PROTECT the Population 2 ENABLE the ANSF

    3 NEUTRALIZE Malign

    Influence 4 SUPPORT Governance 5 SUPPORT Development

    13 1514

    Partnered populationsecurity measures stabilize

    designated areas

    Accelerated ANSF growthplan complete; sustainment

    ongoing

    Malign actors aremarginalized, population

    views GIRoA as legitimate

    Legitimate, responsive, andaccountable governance is

    extended to the population

    Focused communitydevelopment bolsters

    popular support for GIRoA

    1. Support for ISAF mission

    solidified

    5. ANSF demonstrates basic

    capability

    7. Effective IO campaign

    implemented

    11. Afghan population

    recognizes GIRoA as a

    13. Essential services provided

    to key areas

    83

    .

    effective in key areas

    3. Key areas stabilized

    4. INS suppressed to anacceptable level

    . - .

    culturally acceptable level

    9. Effective border control

    established

    10. Narco-INS-Criminal nexus

    and confluence of Narco-GIRoA

    corruption suppressed

    ,

    acceptable government

    12. Effective rule of law in place

    .

    requirements met

    15. Sustainable, functioning

    economy established

    83

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    TO

    OT

    ConceptofOperations

    Economyofforce.Containtheinsurgencyincontestedareas;

    expand governanceand

    .

    eve opmen e or s.

    SupportingEffort.Generatepoliticalacceptancefor

    governanceanddevelopmentcommensuratewithsecurity.

    Shaping

    Effort.Deny

    insurgent

    freedomof

    movement;

    improve

    bordersecurityandpreparefordecisiveoperations.

    84

    threatenedbytheinsurgency;separateinsurgentsfrompopulationincontestedareas;establishcampaign

    credibility

    and

    resolve.

    Key Population Centers

    Main Effort

    Supporting EffortShaping Effort

    Economy of Force

    Key Population Centers

    Main Effort

    Supporting EffortShaping Effort

    Economy of Force

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    TO

    OT

    ComprehensiveApproach

    Central

    AsiaIndia

    China

    Iran

    Increase Regional Stability

    Enhance Cooperation

    y

    Expanding Stabili ty

    e

    Reduce Safehavens

    Reduce threats to stability

    u rus

    lStra

    te

    2014

    hip

    Acc

    ounta

    Afg

    han

    leaders

    respo

    nsive

    tothe

    peoples

    eds

    Afghan populationgains trust and

    confidence leadingto su ort for

    e eat ae a

    Defeat Insurgency

    Increase abi l i t y

    t o govern anddevelopR

    egion

    Nation

    alLead

    e

    IRoAMinis

    tries

    vernance

    GIRoAcapac i ty

    Sub-n

    ational

    CivilS

    ociety

    ational

    ity

    Nation

    al

    Politic

    al

    Effort

    Security Zones Intcommpar

    tnersto

    builds

    ecurity

    govern

    ance

    and

    develo

    pment

    apacity

    85

    2009

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    StruggleforthePopulation

    Most

    Threatened

    Po ulation

    Areas Essential Securit Influence(Present) (2014)

    PreventGIRoAdevelopmentandinfluence

    Limitpopulationabilitytochoose

    Createtimeandspace

    Enablepopulationopportunitytochoose

    Nationalthru

    local

    governance

    improved

    Securityinkeypopulationcenters

    Securityconnectedbetweenregions

    emen so nsurgen n uence

    Shadowgovernance

    Populationintimidatedand/orcoerced

    InsurgentshaveFreedomofMovement

    8686

    Majorinfrastructureprojectsongoing

    Economiccorridor

    sustainable

    r en y ree omo ovemen m e

    Infrastructuredevelopmentdisrupted

    Economiccapacity

    truncated

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    ISAF Focus District Overview

    Total: 80

    Annual Growth Projections:

    2009 252010 45 (20 more)

    2011 70 (25 more)

    more

    2013 80

    2014 80

    Selection Criteria:

    Density of population

    Threatened Population

    Nature of threat

    Infrastructure Governance capacity

    Economic potential

    Relationship to adjacent

    87

    population centers

    Relationship to national /

    regional economic corridors

    The districts in the area outside of the identified focus districts have varyingdegrees of threat and security. It is possible that security, governance and

    development activities take place. However, weight of effort and prioritzationshould orient on the focus districts.

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    Risks

    GIRoA:

    Failure to provide accountable, legitimate and responsive governance.

    ANSF:

    Lack of capacity due to poor recruiting, retention and high attrition.

    Failure to develop operationally effective COIN forces.

    International Community:

    Failure to effectively unify governance and development efforts.

    Lack of flexibility to reconfigure and create strategic effects.

    NATO and Troop Contributing Nations:

    Inability / unwillingness to conduct effective ISAF COIN campaign.

    88

    - .

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    Key Takeaways

    Analysis indicatesAnalysis indicates::

    .

    Expansion of the insurgency is outpacing GIRoAs capacity to contain it.

    regain the initiative.

    Feasible ANSF growth alone cannot contain the insurgency before 2012/2013.

    Risk increases over time if force levels are insufficient

    Insufficient force levels dont accomplish the mission slower....

    the dont accom lish the mission at all.

    Additional Coalition Forces are required between 2009-2011 to gain momentum,

    buy time for ANSF generation, and overmatch the insurgency.

    89

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    Why does Pakistan matter?

    KIRUZB

    CHINA

    1100kmHQN

    HIG

    ALQ

    TLB

    90A

    Airport of debarkation

    ISAF supplies 30%S

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    Pakistan Social divides

    91

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    Relationship with Afghanistan

    HIG

    HQN

    2009

    TLB

    92

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    Importance of Pakistan

    Triple crisis:

    Political instability

    Economic crisis

    n genous a an movemen

    Pakistan = key terrain to sustain fight vs. AQ

    sanc uar es

    Ambivalent attitude

    a s an ong erm n eres n g an s an

    93

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    TO

    OT

    Conclusion 1/2

    Major issues to consider:

    before the conditions are suitable;2) Constrained timeline (18 months to demonstrate

    .

    1) 30 000 US force flow plus 7 000 from other NATO Nations;

    2 Growin the ANSF instruction and trainin

    3) Intensification of cooperating with Pakistan;

    4) International Community (IC) commitment (44 Nations ).

    94NATO UNCLASSIFIED

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    TO

    OT

    Conclusion 2/2

    Sense of the commitment of the IC in Afghanistan:

    1) Support the Afghan people (ISAF);2 War a ainst the Insur ents;

    3) Prevent Afghanistan becoming a safe heaven and

    a support base for Al-Qaeda.

    e are a so n to ga n our own secur ty

    95NATO UNCLASSIFIED

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    DiscussionDiscussion

    96

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    ISAF

    INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE FORCE

    AFGHANISTAN RECONSTRUCTION SUMMITAn overview of ISAF Mission

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 97

    s an u

    20 January 2010Col. ITA A Mario LUPPA

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    ISAF Mission

    ISAF, in partnership with Government of,

    enables an expands an effective Afghan

    National Security Forces and supportsimproved governance and development in

    order to protect the Afghan people and

    prov e a secure env ronmen or sus a na estability.

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 98

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    ComprehensiveApproach

    Central

    AsiaIndia

    China

    Iran

    Increase Regional Stability

    Enhance Cooperation

    y

    Expanding Stabili ty

    e

    Reduce Safehavens

    Reduce threats to stability

    u rus

    lStra

    te

    hip

    Acco

    unta

    Afgh

    an

    leaders

    respo

    nsive

    tothe

    peoples

    eds

    Afghan populationgains trust and

    confidence leadingto support for

    e eat ae a

    Defeat Insurgency

    Increase abi l i t y

    t o govern anddevelopR

    egion

    Nation

    alLead

    e

    IRoAMin

    istries

    vernance

    GIRoAcapac i ty

    Sub-n

    ational

    CivilS

    ociety

    ational

    ity

    Nation

    al

    Politic

    al

    Effort

    Int

    comm

    partnersto

    builds

    ecurity

    govern

    ance

    and

    develo

    pment

    apacity

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 99

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    Where Stability Fits

    COMISAF Integrated with HQ Staff tosynchronize stability into

    Engaging partners & influencing

    their stability decisions supporting

    CIVILIAN MILITARY

    secur y p ann nge ampa gn an

    DCOS STAB

    Dep DCOS Stab

    GIRoA

    UNAMA & UN

    Plans and Policy

    Dir Dev Dir Gov

    International

    Community:

    a

    ,

    Aid Agencies

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 100

    OPERATIONAL COMMANDS

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    Essential Elements of ProgressNEARTERM

    MID

    TERM LONGTERM

    OBJECTIVES GOALS

    ENDSTATE

    anGIRoAresponsive

    and

    Improvement

    inGIRoA

    Partnershipwith

    Afghan

    population

    Afghanistanrecognizedas

    ghan

    isaccountable

    topopulation

    competence

    andcapacity

    respons veaccountable

    GIRoA

    leaders

    StrategicInternational

    supports

    GIRoA

    Significant

    cre eregional

    partner

    ta

    bleA

    DEVELOPMENT

    Ministriesplanandallocate

    donorfunding

    pr or za onofobjectives

    Quickimpactcommunity

    focus

    unityofeffort

    Denationalizedonor

    contributions

    Sustainableeconomic

    growthanddevelopment

    ncrease nprivatesector

    investment

    Increasein

    GDP

    feand

    Momentum

    ofinsurgency

    Afghanistan

    isnotasafeSECURITY

    GIRoAhas

    sufficient

    security

    ANSFcapacityand

    capabilityexpanded

    GIRoAhas

    effective

    controlof

    S

    capacity

    partnership

    territory

    y

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 101

    Capacit

    2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    Natural Resources

    Gas

    Coal

    Asbestos

    Lithium

    Salt

    Lapis lazuli

    Emerald

    Plaster

    Peat

    Mines/ResourcesChilkonsar,

    Samti GoldNatural Gas

    Copper- East, West & Southern Provinces est.240 M metric tonsGold- Badakshan & Panj River Valley ca 25 metric tons

    Iron Ore-Ha i ak Bam an Province est.60 billon metric tons

    OilIron

    Copper

    GoldMercury

    Pewter

    Sary-Sang,

    Lapiz lazulimine

    w/coal nearby

    Gemstones- Emerald, Ruby, Sapphire, Lapis Lazuli

    (80%illegalexport India/Pak) Hajigak

    Panshir valley,

    Emerald minesJangalikan-Gas

    Jumar- Gas

    Kashkari-oil

    Petroleum- Afghan-Tajik Basin 1.5 B Barrels of crude

    Natural Gas- Amu Darya Basin 400 B Cubic meters of NG

    560 Mbbl Liquid Natural Gas AynakJegdalek,

    Ruby Mine

    ron re

    & Coal

    Cotton

    Textile

    Chemical Sites

    SteelPower station

    Power station

    Industrial Sites

    Zarkashan,

    Gold

    opper

    Mine

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 102

    Sugar

    Cementpe ne as

    Gold

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    Afghan Border Crossing Points

    Nusay

    AiKhanem

    Sher KhanAquinaTowraghundi Heyratan

    Shegnan

    X

    ABP Zone 5

    Eshkeshem

    Islam Qalah

    Kabul Intl Airport

    MeS Intl Airport

    Zone 5

    X

    ABP Zone 4

    ABP HQ

    X

    ABP Zone 1

    Herat Intl AirportZone 1Zone 4

    TorkhamGate/Torkham

    BCC

    Gulam KhanMile 78

    Zone 2

    X

    ABP Zone 2

    ZaranjWeesh-Chaman

    Qandahar Intl Airport

    X

    ABP Zone 3

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 103 103

    Border Coordination Center (BCC)

    Inland Customs DepotBahram Chah

    Spin Boldak BCC

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    Stability Relationships with UNAMA, IC & UN

    ISAF UNAMASRSG

    DSRSG Pillar II

    Human Rights

    Norah Niland

    COM

    DSRSG Pillar I

    Relief, Humanit.

    Robert Watkins

    DCOS STAB Special Adv.on DEV

    Mark Ward

    Pol. Affairs Div.

    T. Masadykov

    Political Affairs

    [Vacant]

    Donor/Aid Eff.

    Anja De Beer

    Coord Officer

    Cris Stephen

    DIR DEVDIR GOV

    Policy

    GOV Chiefs

    DEV ChiefsGovernance

    Hassan Elhaq

    Rule of Law

    Stephanie Mcphail

    Police Adv.

    Khuda Chowdry

    Military Adv.

    Brig Gen Tim Lai

    Knut Kristie

    WFP UNOPS HABITAT

    WHO

    UNOCHA UNICEF UNDP UNHCR

    UNDSS

    FAOUNODC UNFPA

    WFP UNOPS HABITAT

    WHO

    UNOCHA UNICEF UNDP UNHCR

    UNDSS

    FAOUNODC UNFPA

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 104

    Dr. Karp

    Weekly average of 10 engagements with UNAMA & UN Organizations

    UN

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

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    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIED

    ISAF

    INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ASSISTANCE FORCE

    NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED 105

    An overview of ISAF Mission

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    International Security Assistance Force

    ,

    ISAF Director of Development

    Stability Division

    e er . rgoe er . rgo

    Office: IVSN 686-1130

    106

    Email: [email protected]