1 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

David CarrollAPPRISE

National WAP Evaluation: Savings and Opportunities for Baseload Electric

2 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Presentation Overview

WAP PY 2008 Electric Baseload Installation Rates

WAP PY 2008 Electric Baseload Savings Estimates

Opportunities – Electric Usage by Low Income Households

Missed Opportunities – Behavior Related Savings Opportunities

3 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

WAP PY 2008 ELECTRIC BASELOAD INSTALLATION

RATES

4 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Climate Zones

5 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Electric Baseload Measure Installation Rates by Climate

Zone

Lights Refrigerators

TOTAL 60% 17%

Very Cold 68% 26%

Cold 59% 19%

Moderate 54% 9%

Hot/Wet 57% 5%

Hot/Dry 61% 11%

6 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Electric Baseload Measure Installation Rates by Building

Type

Lights Refrigerators

TOTAL 60% 17%

Single Family 55% 12%

Multifamily 75% 33%

7 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Refrigerator Replacement

PY 2008 Installation Rate– 17% of weatherization clients

2005 RECS Data:– Households with refrigerator 20 years or older = 14%

– Households with refrigerator 10-19 years = 24%

20 Years or older will be pre 1992 and have highest savings potential

8 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

CFL Installation

PY 2008 Installation Rate– 60% of weatherization clients

2005 RECS Data:– Households with 1 or more CFLs = 31%

9 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

WAP PY 2008 ELECTRIC BASELOAD SAVINGS

ESTIMATES

10 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Electric Baseload Savings Estimates

kWh per Installation in Single Family Homes

Average for all Single Family WAP Clients

TOTAL 527 kWh

Refrigerators 661 kWh 112 kWh

Lights 220 kWh 132 kWh

Other 283 kWh

11 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

2005 ELECTRIC USAGE BY LOW INCOME

HOUSEHOLDS IN SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

12 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Electric Usage – Low Income Single Family with Gas Main

Heating Fuel

Single Family Detached Single Family Attached

Average 9,331 kWh / year 6,632 kWh / year

< 4,000 kWh 12% 27%

4000-<8000 37% 37%

8000-<12,000 27% 29%

12,000 or More 24% 7%

13 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

MISSED OPPORTUNITIES – BEHAVIOR RELATED ELECTRIC ENERGY

SAVINGS

14 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

ECW Plug Load StudyPotential Education Savings

Computers – Potential Savings from Power Management

% of HomesEstimated Average

Savings

Always on 20% 400 kWh

Long idle periods 40% 190 kWh

Off when not used 25% 15 kWh

Not used much 15% 2 kWh

Average Savings 160 kWh

15 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Dehumidifier

Incidence– 6% of low income households have a dehumidifier

Potential Savings– 2 kWh per day * 180 days = 360 kWh

16 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projection TV

Incidence– 18% of low income households have a large screen tv

Potential Savings– 20 W per hour * 12 hours = 240 Wh

– .24 kWh per day * 365 days = 91.25 kWh

17 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projections vs. Impacts

Basic Projection Methodology– Assumptions

Measure installation rates Measure retention rates Pre installation usage Measure effectiveness

17

18 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projections vs. Impacts

Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation

Average household saving= Measure Installation Rate * Measure Retention Rate *(Pre Installation Usage – Post Installation Usage)

18

19 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projections vs. Impacts

Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation

Pre Installation Usage per bulb per hour= 60 watts * .001 = .06 kWh

Post Installation Usage per bulb per hour= 13 watts * .001 = .013 kWh

Change per Bulb per hour=.06 - .013 = .047 kWh

19

20 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projections vs. Impacts

Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation

Change per bulb per day= .047 kWh * 2.5 hours/day= .1175 kWh/day

Change per bulb per year= . 1175 kWh/day * 365 days= 43 kWh/year

20

21 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projections vs. Impacts

Basic Projection Methodology– Calculation

Number installed per home= 43 kWh * 8 bulbs= 344 kWh

Retention rate= 344 kWh *.8= 275 kWh saved per home per year

21

22 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projections vs. Impacts

So simple, what could go wrong… Incorrect assumptions

– Measure installation rate

– Measure retention rate Bulbs left for occupants to install Bulbs removed Bulbs broken

– Existing bulb kWh

– Hours of use

22

23 Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy

Projections vs. Impacts

So simple, what could go wrong… Interactions

– Adding up individual measure savings can overstate results

– Need to account for reduced heat gain from CFLs Increase heating usage Reduce cooling usage

23