NASDCTE Fall Conference 2005

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Other Ways to Win:

An Update

Ken Gray, PSU.Gty@psu.edu

Background PDK Gallup Poll Results

• 59% knows little or nothing about NCLP

• Among the knowledgeable 57% have unfavorable views.

• 67% support high school testing in grades 9 &10 &11

Annual PDK Gallup Poll, Sept 2005

Background PDK Gallup Poll Results

• 66% of adults with children in public school support a wide variety of course offerrings in the American high school.

• 80% believe that a fair assessment of schools requires tests in a variety of subjects.

• 62% of NCLB knowable believe it hurts special needs students.

Annual PDK Gallup Poll, Sept 2005

The One Way to Win Message Defined

1. Get a four year college degree98% agree, 72% plan on grad school

2. In order to insure economic successThree of top 4 reasons for going to college

3. In the professional ranksProfessional/manageral 65% Technical 6%

The One Way to Win MythThe Fate of a typical elementary school

class of 24 children

7 drop out5 go to work6 do not graduate from College3 Do not find college jobs3 win the One Way to Win game

9th to Graduation Dropout Rates

US & Pennsylvania9 to 10 dropout rates US= 11% PA = 7%

9th-graduation dropout rates in 1990 US=29% PA=21%

9th-graduation dropout rates in 2000 US= 33% PA=25%

Education Pipeline in the U.S: 1970-2000. National Board Publications.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

9th-10th/00

PAUSA

CTE and AT-Risk Youth

A combination of 60% academic courses and 40% CTE is the most effective drop-out prevention program in the American high school.

At-risk/special needs students in CTE are more likely to:Graduate from high school. Be employed. Be employed in the trades.Be in college.

Employment of University Graduates2000-2012

Supply Demand Employed

University Grads 1,185,000 730,400 62%

Percent of Occupations Requiring

Different Levels of Education

Graduate Ed.8%

Baccalaureate12%

Technical10%

OJT27%

No training43%

Graduate Ed.

Baccalaureate

Technical

OJT

No training

Financial Aide

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04

Year

%

Grants

Loans

Roots of One Way to Win Myth

• Class in America. (David Brooks, Bobos’s in Paradise)

• Economic Uncertainty/ Globalization– (no one knows what to do)

• Math Scam• Increase college graduates

Fundamental Fears & Misconceptions

• A college degree is today what a high school diploma was before.

There will be so many with a univesity degree that they wil take all the good jobs.

Fundamental Fears & Misconceptions

• College grads earn more than others thus is most be because they have a college degree.– Decline of blue collar wages. – Wage gap…payoff is for a very few– 83% of associate degree holders have same

annual earnings a 4-yr grad.– Education explain less 10% of earnings.

(Ulreich,NYT, 1/17/05)

Finding Other Ways to Win.

The High Skills/High Wage Strategy1. Understand three labor market realities.

2. Investigate technician level occupations within key economic sectors

1. The High Skills/High Wage Workplace

Engineers 2%Technicians 14%Operators 84%

Semi-conductor Manufacturing

Ratio: 1 to 2 to 7

2. Labor Market Projections Can be Misleading

• Opportunity is greatest in occupations that demand exceed supply.

• Fast or slow growing growing occupations may or may not mean opportunity.

Shortages of Technicians

• There will be 100,000 more jobs for computer technicians than computer engineers.

• Almost half of IT, craft, and precision manufacturing jobs were filled by non-native born workers in the 1990’s.

• While construction trades employment is predicted to grow only by 13% retirement of older workers results in a net demand of over two million jobs

3. Occupational Skill not Degrees Provide Labor Market Advantage

High Skill/ High Wage

Low Skill/Low Wage

Other Ways to Win

Work Ethic & Work Ethics

Academic Skills

Occupational Skills

Creating Other Ways to WinCareer Guidance

By the tenth grade all students will have participated in activities designed to help them identify several career options.

In the eleventh and twelfth grades all students will participate in activities that allow them to verify these choices, using the results to develop postsecondary plans.

Career Verification Activities Preferred by Teens

Job Shadowing 71% Vocational Education

56%

Internships 64% Unpaid employment

51%

Paid employment

61% Guest speakers 36%

Career focused academic class

60% Career interest inventories

17%

Creating Other Ways to Win

• Require All Student to Complete a High School Program of Study.– Shopping mall high school curriculum– Dual enrollment/middle college– CTE/Career Clusters/Tech Prep

Creating Other Ways to Win

• Challenge the Taylorist High School Mind Set

In High School

NCLB Requires Alternatives

CTE

Is to Some Teens

What

AP & HonorsIs To others.