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Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation Value Through Simulation Value Through Simulation Value Through Simulation February 17 th , 2010

NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

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Page 1: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through SimulationValue Through SimulationValue Through SimulationValue Through Simulation

February 17th, 2010

Page 2: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

AgendaLeveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation

February 17th, 20108am PST (Seattle) / 11am EST (New York) / 4pm GMT (London)

Welcome & Introduction (Overview of NAFEMS Activities)

Matthew Ladzinski, NAFEMS North America

Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through

Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality

Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation

Marc Halpern, Ph.D., Gartner

Q&A Session

Panel

Closing

Ladzinski Halpern

Page 3: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

An Overview of NAFEMS ActivitiesAn Overview of NAFEMS Activities

THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONTHE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONFOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS FOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality

An Overview of NAFEMS ActivitiesAn Overview of NAFEMS Activities

Matthew LadzinskiMatthew LadzinskiNAFEMS North AmericaNAFEMS North America

Page 4: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Planned ActivitiesPlanned Activities� Webinars

� New topic each month!� Visualization – March 2010� “Accepted Practices in FEA” – April 2010 (NAFEMS India Webinar)

� Recent webinars:� Product Performance Simulation in the Year 2020 – February 2010� What is V&V� How to Ensure that CFD for Industrial Applications is Fit for Purpose� Practical CFD � Composite FE Analysis� 10 Ways to Increase Your Professional Value in the Engineering Industry� Dynamic FE Analysis� Modal Analysis in Virtual Prototyping and Product Validation� Pathways to Future CAE Technologies and their Role in Ambient Intelligent Environments� Computational Structural Acoustics: Technology, Trends and Challenges� FAM: Advances in Research and Industrial Application of Experimental Mechanics

Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality

� FAM: Advances in Research and Industrial Application of Experimental Mechanics� CCOPPS: Power Generation: Engineering Challenges of a Low Carbon Future� Practical CFD Analysis� Complexity Management� CCOPPS: Creep Loading of Pressurized Components – Phenomena and Evaluation� Multiphysics Simulation using Implicit Sequential Coupling� CCOPPS: Fatigue of Welded Pressure Vessels� Applied Element Method as a Practical Tool for Progressive Collapse Analysis of Structures� A Common Sense Approach to Stress Analysis and Finite Element Modeling� The Interfacing of FEA with Pressure Vessel Design Codes (CCOPPS Project)� Multiphysics Simulation using Directly Coupled-Field Element Technology� Methods and Technology for the Analysis of Composite Materials� Simulation Process Management� Simulation-supported Decision Making (Stochastics)� Simulation Driven Design (SDD) Findings

To register for upcoming webinars, or to view a past webinar, please visit: www.nafems.org/events/webinars

Page 5: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Established in 2009

Next courses:

Dynamic FE Analysis – January 12th, 2010 (six-week course)

Non-Linear Analysis – March 2nd, 2010 (four-week course)

Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality

Non-Linear Analysis – March 2nd, 2010 (four-week course)

Composite FE Analysis – April 13th, 2010 (four-week course)

Simulation-Supported Engineering – TBA (four-week course)

Proposed course offerings:

Optimization – Summer 2010 (four-week course)

For more information, visit: www.nafems.org/e-learning

Page 6: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

NAFEMS EventsNAFEMS Events

Multiple opportunities to attend conferences, seminars/workshops and training courses

Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality

Let us know if you would like to schedule an on-site training course

For more information, please visit: www.nafems.org

Page 7: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Leveraging CAE for Greater Leveraging CAE for Greater

Business Value Through Business Value Through

SimulationSimulation

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner

audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected,

and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Marc Halpern, P.E., Ph.D.Research DirectorManufacturing Advisory ServiceGartner, Inc.

Email: [email protected]

Page 8: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

A Harbinger of Things to Come?

“After a two-month review, Toyota concluded that its product-development process was fraying at the edges due to its

JANUARY 27, 2010, Toyota Heir Faces

Crisis at the Wheel, Wall Street Journal

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82/17/2010

development process was fraying at the edges due to its emphasis on its global expansion. Mr. Watanabe noted in an interview at the time that in some cases company engineers may have rushed out products without conducting enough quality checks, such as building physical prototypes, and relying too

much on computer simulations. Toyota tapped the brakes

on that practice.”

Page 9: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Topics to Discuss

• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?

• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?

• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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92/17/2010

to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?

Page 10: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Topics to discuss

• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?

• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?

• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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102/17/2010

to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?

Page 11: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Simulation Builds on CAE for Critical Product

Development Applications

CAECAE

SimulationSimulation

Software support for engineering Software support for engineering processes and activities, processes and activities, particularly engineering analysis to particularly engineering analysis to certify designscertify designs

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112/17/2010

certify designscertify designs

Modeling and predicting Modeling and predicting behavior among objects in behavior among objects in physical systems including physical systems including interactions with their interactions with their environment and making the environment and making the feedback more “lifelike.”feedback more “lifelike.”

Page 12: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Simulation Builds on CAE for Critical Product

Development Activities

CAECAE

SimulationSimulation

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122/17/2010

Page 13: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Simulation Footprint is Broader Than CAE

Category CAE Simulation

Key Markets Discrete manufacturers, process manufacturers, architectural engineering and construction

All industries

Scope Primarily to evaluate engineering-related design choices and code compliance

Understand implications of design on all product lifecycle activities

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132/17/2010

choices and code compliance

Stakeholders Mostly engineering. Some manufacturing, quality managers, and regulatory personnel

All CAE stakeholders plus marketing, sales, all manufacturing, customers, even executives

Perceived benefits Design insights, reduces product lifecycle costs that have engineering implications. Create design knowledge without prototypes and physical testing. Improves product quality

Enhances all CAE benefits, exposes and tests more assumptions, communicates more effectively to a broader audience of product lifecycle stakeholders

Page 14: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Simulation in Manufacturing

Improving Design of Improving Design of Factory AutomationFactory Automation

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Improving Ergonomics Improving Ergonomics of Assemblyof Assembly

Courtesy: Dassault SystemesCourtesy: Dassault Systemes

Courtesy: Dassault SystemesCourtesy: Dassault Systemes

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Simulation in Construction

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152/17/2010

•• 55--8% savings on $1.5 Billion US construction project8% savings on $1.5 Billion US construction project

•• 25% time reduction25% time reduction

Courtesy: AutodeskCourtesy: Autodesk

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Simulation in Retail

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162/17/2010

Page 17: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Why Should We Care About Simulation?

• Vendors, particularly large PLM vendors are promoting the hype with the real benefits. Businesses should set the right expectations

• There are real benefits but the learning curve is long. It will be too hard to catch up when it matters competitively

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172/17/2010

• The enhanced realism will obfuscate missed or faulty critical assumptions, particularly when CAE is involved

• Businesses can introduce even more “waste” into product development than poorly-practiced CAE unless they exercise the right focus, strategy, and best practices

Page 18: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Topics to discuss

• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?

• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?

• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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182/17/2010

to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?

Page 19: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Predictions from the 1980s vs. Today’s Realities

1980s Prediction Today’s Reality

Supercomputers will be available

on the desktop

Dramatic reduction in physical

testing

The mainstream of designers

Fulfilled in terms of 1980s supercomputers

Reductions in select industries for select purposes

Only 1 out of every 10 CAD

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192/17/2010

The mainstream of designers

perform analysis

Rapid growth of automated design

through optimization

High fidelity multi-physics will be

broadly adopted

Simulation will proactively guide a

significant percentage of design

Only 1 out of every 10 CAD seats is sold for this purpose

Actual use is niche

Multi-physics use is relatively narrow and selective

Largely unfulfilled given scope and urgency of design decisions

Page 20: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Sources of "Waste" in Product/Process

Design

Discovery and

information Design-related

Design-related

manufacturing defects

(17%)

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202/17/2010

information

search time (42%)

Lack of design/

information reuse (18%)

Unnecessary over-

design (8%)

Design-related

product/process

defects (15%)

Source: A.T. Kearney, The Line on Design, 2003, (for Tier 1 automotive suppliers)

Page 21: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Evidence of Waste in CAE

“In a typical case, an engineer might be doing structural analysis of a vehicle subsystem. He would become absorbed in the details of computer modeling - analyzing the tradeoffs of the CAE modeling options he could use. The substantial time and money to do his computer-based study was essentially wasted. Worse yet, the initial results were wrong. He only needed to do a simple hand calculation to get the essential information to make a meaningful and reliable design decision.S.In 35 years, I saw quite

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212/17/2010

make a meaningful and reliable design decision.S.In 35 years, I saw quite a few of these.” - Retired Automotive Engineering Manager

“After investing millions of dollars over 5 years on this CAE program, our CEO asked me to report the tangible benefits this investment delivered. Our CAE team was incapable of making a compelling case to continue making such investments.”- Senior Executive, Defense Electronics Manufacturer

Page 22: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Analysis of Major Automotive Recalls: 2005-2007 Suggests Lifecycle Simulation Priorities

10E4

10E5

10E6

10E7

Nu

mb

er

of

Veh

icle

s R

ecall

ed

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222/17/2010

0

10

10E2

10E3

0 5 10 15Time (Years) Between Model Introduction and Recall

Nu

mb

er

of

Veh

icle

s R

ecall

ed

Design Issue

Source:Gartner, 2007

Design and/or Manufacturing Issue

Manufacturing Issue

Page 23: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Lessons Learned

• C-level executives in most manufacturing industries are less educated about CAE than previously realized

• The CAE community is risk-averse and slow to change

• The CAE community, users and R&D professionals, need to learn more and think more “integratively” about product lifecycle demands

• The strategic importance of CAE in large enterprise-PLM vendors gets diminished due to overarching business demands

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232/17/2010

• CAE technology advances succeed commercially when users perceive they will streamline existing processes and not require substantial change

• Manufacturers adopt advanced simulation technologies when the cost and time for physical testing is significantly higher than computing resources and expertise

• Manufacturers typically behave more tactically than strategically, making investments to address urgent situations

Page 24: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Accelerators and Inhibitors Shaping the Simulation Landscape

Accelerators

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Inhibitors

Page 25: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Accelerators and Inhibitors Shaping the Simulation Landscape

Accelerators

Changing

nature of

products

Increase in

regulatory

demandsLiability

risksCheap

compute

power

Global competition

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Inhibitors

Time/cost of

physical tests

products

Page 26: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Accelerators and Inhibitors Shaping the Simulation Landscape

Accelerators

Changing

nature of

products

Increase in

regulatory

demandsLiability

risksCheap

compute

power

Global competition

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262/17/2010

Inhibitors

Time/cost of

physical tests

products

Liability

risks

Insufficient skilled resources

Insufficient senior management support

Fear and cost of change

Other PLM vendor priorities

Other CIO priorities

Page 27: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Topics to discuss

• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?

• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?

• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable mainstream simulation?

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>

272/17/2010

to enable mainstream simulation?

• What are best practices to adopt and use simulation technology?

Page 28: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Broadly Recognized

The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt

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Evolving

Nascent-

Emerging

TransformationalSignificantIncremental

Impact on Design Success

Maturity

Moderate

Highest

Lowest

Challenge to

Adopt

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Broadly Recognized

The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt

Multiphysics

simulation

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Evolving

Nascent-

Emerging

TransformationalSignificantIncremental

Impact on Design Success

Maturity

Moderate

Highest

Lowest

Challenge to

Adopt

Systems

simulation

Stochastic

simulation

Complexity

analysis

simulation

Page 30: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Broadly Recognized

The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt

Multiphysics

simulationError estimation

Analytics

Simulation/test data

management

Optimization

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302/17/2010

Evolving

Nascent-

Emerging

TransformationalSignificantIncremental

Impact on Design Success

Maturity

Moderate

Highest

Lowest

Challenge to

Adopt

Systems

simulation

Stochastic

simulation

Complexity

analysis

simulationAdvanced

materials

modeling

MEMS/nano

simulation

Error estimation

and control

Page 31: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Broadly Recognized

The Application Classes with the Greatest Value in 2020 Are Toughest to Adopt

Multiphysics

simulationError estimation

Analytics

Simulation/test data

management

Optimization

CAD integration

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312/17/2010

Evolving

Nascent-

Emerging

TransformationalSignificantIncremental

Impact on Design Success

Maturity

Moderate

Highest

Lowest

Challenge to

Adopt

Systems

simulation

Stochastic

simulation

Complexity

analysis

simulationAdvanced

materials

modeling

MEMS/nano

simulation

Error estimation

and control

Multi-sensory

feedback

Adapt gaming

technology

Page 32: NAFEMS Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value … · Leveraging CAE for Greater Business Value Through Simulation ... • The CAE community, ... • CAE technology advances succeed

Topics to discuss

• What is simulation and how does it build on CAE?

• What has 40 years of CAE taught us that we can apply to more strategic adoption of simulation?

• What is realistic to expect from commercial software to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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322/17/2010

to enable valuable mainstream simulation?

• What are the best strategies and practices to adopt and use simulation technology?

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The Lean Business Model is the Fastest to Success

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332/17/2010

Can you win the race carrying excess baggage?

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The Soft Stuff of Lean Will Be the Tough Stuff

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� Commitment

� Common Corporate Strategy

� Common Focus and Goals

� Leadership

� Balanced Teams

� Objectivity

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Lean Means Directly Linking Market

Priorities to Product Development Priorities

Voice of

Customer

Performance, Cost

Manufacturability

Serviceability

Define

Technical

Specifications

Requirements

Analysis and

Management

Identify

Critical

Parameters

Validate

Measurement

System

Improve

Design

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Voice of

Market Meets

Targets?

Critical Parameter Management

No

Yes

SpecificationsManagement

Identify

Parameter

Relationships

System

Deploy

Design

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Map the Applications to the Mission

Voice of

Customer

Performance, Cost

Manufacturability

Serviceability

Define

Technical

Specifications

Requirements

Analysis and

Management

Identify

Critical

Parameters

Validate

Measurement

System

Improve

Design

Stochastic

SimulationSystems

Engineering

Systems

Engineering

Simulation

Software

Failure Modes and

Manufacturing

Process Mgmt.

Analyze Complexity

and Variance

Aftermarket

Product Analytics

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362/17/2010

Voice of

Market Meets

Targets?

Critical Parameter Management

No

Yes

SpecificationsManagement

Identify

Parameter

Relationships

System

Deploy

Design

Simulation

Software

Engineering

Design for Quality

"Cockpit"

Failure Modes and

Effects AnalysisRequirements

Management

Cost

Analysis

Test Data

Mgmt.

Analyze Complexity

and Variance

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Sweat the Details!

Challenger Disaster Challenger Disaster (January, 1986)(January, 1986)

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The Sinking of the Sleipner A The Sinking of the Sleipner A Offshore Platform Offshore Platform (August, 1991)(August, 1991)

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Sweat the Details – Priority CAE Questions

• Does a simulation model and the underlying math adequately capture the physics of the question being studied?

• How much approximation is good enough?

• What critical parameters matter most for good

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• What critical parameters matter most for good decision making?

• How can the results be validated?

• What tradeoffs are acceptable to deliver timely results?

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Sweat the Details: Example - The Girkmann Problem

Illustrates that Element Formulations Still Matter

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Girkmann: Flächentragwerke. Springer Girkmann: Flächentragwerke. Springer Verlag, 1956.Verlag, 1956.

Timoshenko and WoinowskyTimoshenko and Woinowsky--Krieger: Krieger: Theory of Plates and Shells, 1959.Theory of Plates and Shells, 1959.

Courtesy of Dr. Barna Szabo, Wahrington University and ESRDCourtesy of Dr. Barna Szabo, Wahrington University and ESRD

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Sweat the Details: Example - Simple or Not So

Simple Beam Analysis?

LL

PPtt

••Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about

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••Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about Is the ratio L/t high enough that we should care about axial stretching?axial stretching?

••Is the ratio L/t low enough that we should care about Is the ratio L/t low enough that we should care about shear stresses?shear stresses?

••Do stress concentrations at each end matter for this Do stress concentrations at each end matter for this analysis?analysis?

••Are idealized end conditions valid?Are idealized end conditions valid?

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A Better Paradigm: Simulation and CAE are

Part of a Knowledge Generating Ecosystem

• Simulation expands the value of CAE across a broader community of business stakeholders

• Simulation delivers quality, time, and cost value similar to CAE if used correctly.

• The digital nature of simulation should make knowledge

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• The digital nature of simulation should make knowledge capture and reuse efficient and effective

• Lean thinking with a focus on “critical to quality” will be essential to success

• Simulation should be incorporated into a broader quality IT “ecosystem” to have its maximum impact

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QuestionsQuestions

Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality

Website: www.nafems.org

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Thank you!

THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONTHE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATIONFOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS COMMUNITYFOR THE ENGINEERING ANALYSIS COMMUNITY

Collaboration Collaboration –– Innovation Innovation –– Productivity Productivity -- QualityQuality

[email protected]