NAEFS Status and Future Plan

Yuejian Zhu

Ensemble team leaderEnvironmental Modeling Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Presentation for International S2S conference

February 14 2014

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Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

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North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System*

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Hurricane Models

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Dispersion Models for DHS-GFDL -WRF

NCEP Model Perspective

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North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

International project to produce operational multi‐center ensemble products

Bias correction and combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & 

USA

Generates products for:Weather forecastersSpecialized users

End users

Operational outlet for THORPEX research using TIGGE archive

StatementThe North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) combines state of 

the art weather forecast tools, called ensemble forecasts, developed at the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). When combined, these tools (a) provide weather forecast guidance for the 1‐14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either of the two sets of tools separately; and (b) make a set of forecasts that are seamless across the national boundaries over North America, between Mexico and the US, and between the US and Canada. As a first step in the development of the NAEFS system, the two ensemble generating centers, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NWS and the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) of MSC started exchanging their ensemble forecast data on the operational basis in September 2004. First NAEFS probabilistic products have been implemented at NCEP in February 2006. The enhanced weather forecast products are generated based on the joint ensemble which has been undergone a statistical post‐processing to reduce their systematic errors. 

NAEFS Milestones• Implementations

– First NAEFS implementation – bias correction – IOC, May 30 2006  Version 1– NAEFS follow up implementation – CONUS downscaling ‐ December 4 2007 Version 2– Alaska implementation – Alaska downscaling ‐ December 7 2010 Version 3– Implementation for CONUS/Alaska expansion – Q2FY14  Version 4

• Applications of NAEFS Statistical Post‐Processing:– NCEP/GEFS and NAEFS – at NWS– CMC/GEFS and NAEFS – at MSC– FNMOC/GEFS – at NAVY– NCEP/SREF – at NWS

• Publications (or references):– Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard, 2004: “ The Trade‐off in Bias 

Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive” The First THORPEX International Science Symposium. December 6‐10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, P281‐284.

– Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2006: “GFS bias correction” [Document is available online]– Zhu, Y., B. Cui, and Z. Toth, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast 

System (NAEFS)” [Document is available online]– Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2012: "Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast" Weather and 

Forecasting, Vol. 27 396‐410 – Cui, B., Y. Zhu , Z. Toth and D. Hou, 2013: "Development of Statistical Post‐processor for NAEFS”

Weather and Forecasting (In process)– Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System 

(NAEFS)” [Document is available online]– Zhu, Y, and Y. Luo, 2013: “Precipitation Calibration Based on Frequency Matching Method (FMM)”. 

Weather and Forecasting (in process)– Glahn, B., 2013: “A Comparison of Two Methods of Bias Correcting MOS Temperature and Dewpoint 

Forecasts” MDL office note, 13‐1

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NCEP CMC NAEFSModel GFS GEM NCEP+CMC

Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKFModel

uncertainty/StochasticYes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physics

and stochastic)Yes

Tropical storm Relocation NoneDaily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC

Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55kmT190L42 (d8-16)~70km

600*300 (66km)L72

1*1 degree

Control Yes Yes Yes (2)Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle

Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 daysPost-process Bias correction

(same bias for all members)

Bias correction for each member

Yes

Last implementation February 14th 2012 February 13 2013

NAEFS Current StatusUpdated: February 13 2013

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NCEP/GEFS raw forecast

NAEFS final products

4+ days gain from NAEFS

From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC

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From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC)Dual-resolution (NCEP only)Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC)Combination of NCEP and CMC

NAEFS final products

NCEP/GEFS raw forecast

8+ days gain

NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod: January 1st – December 31st 2012

GFS – 8.0d

GEFS – 9.5d

NAEFS – 9.85d

Summary of 6th NAEFS workshop1‐3 May, 2012 Monterey, CA

6th NAEFS workshop was held in Monterey, CA during 1‐3 May 2012. There were about 50 scientists to attend this workshop whose are from Meteorological Service of Canada, Mexico Meteorological Service, UKMet, NAVY, AFWA and NOAA.

Following topics have been presented and discussed during workshop:•Review the current status of the contribution of each NWP center to NAEFS•For each NWP center, present plans for future model and product updates, for both the base models and ensemble system (including regional ensembles)•Decide on coordination of plans for the overall future NAEFS ensemble and products (added variables, data transfer for increased resolution grids, FNMOC ensemble added to NAEFS, especially for mesoscale ensemble‐NAEFS‐LAM)•Learn about current operational uses of ensemble forecast guidance, including military and civilian applications.

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NUOPC – National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability.

The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation’s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions.

The NUOPC Tri‐Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the next‐generation National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system.

10‐day forecast

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height:

30‐day running mean scores of day‐10 CRPS skill scoreRMS error and ratio of RMS error / spreadAnomaly correlation

All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/naefs/VRFY_STATS/T30_P500HGT

AC score CRPS

RMS error

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Research and Operational ApplicationsIn Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth (NCEP) Acknowledgements:

Glenn Rutledge (NCDC), Andre Methot (MSC), Michel Rosengaus (NMSM), Dan Collins, Bo Cui, Richard Wobus(NCEP)

NAEFS & THORPEX• Expands international collaboration

– Mexico joined in November 2004– FNMOC joined in 2009 (NUOPC)

• Provides framework for transitioning research into operations– Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system:   – Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

THORPEX Interactive GrandGlobal Ensemble (TIGGE)

North American EnsembleForecast System (NAEFS)

Articulatesoperational needs

TransfersNew methods

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week-1 week-2 one month

GEFS/NAEFSservice CFS

service

Weather/Climate linkage

NCEP/GEFS is running on T254L42 resolution with tuned ETR initial perturbations and adjusted STTP scheme for 21 ensemble members, forecast out to 16 days and 4 cycles per day, planning to extended to 45 days at lower horizontal resolution, 00UTC only (coupled). NAEFS will consider to include FNMOC ensemble in the future, with improving post process which includebias correction, dual resolution and down scaling

Main eventMJO

Future Seamless Forecast System

Operational CFS has been implemented in2011 with T126L64 atmospheric modelresolution (CFSv2, 2010version) which is fully coupled with land, ocean and atmosphere(GFS+MOM4+NOAH), 4 members per day (using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions, one day older?), integrate out to 9 months.

IMME and NMME - ???

Main products:1. Probabilistic forecasts for every

6-hr out to 16 days, 4 times per day: 10%, 50%, 90%, ensemble mean, mode and spread.

2. D6-10, week-2 temperature and precipitation probabilistic mean forecasts for above, below normal and normal forecast

3. MJO forecast (week 3 & 4 … )

Main products:

ENSO predictions???Seasonal forecast???

SEAMLESS

The quality of NAEFS week‐2 

forecast Has been 

confirmed by CPC

Courtesy of Drs. Pena and Zhang

Reforecast ‐ the facts and expectations • 25+ years GEFS reforecast data are available for testing and applications.

– It is the same model/resolutions as current operational GEFS– Once per day at 00UTC, 11 members only

• The values have been demonstrated:– Overall benefits: mainly studied for surface temperature and precipitation –

ESRL/PSD– Improving the reliabilities and skills of 6‐10 days, week‐2’s temperature and 

precipitation forecast – CPC, ESPL/PSD– Help to enhance the ability of extreme forecast, hazard outlook and precipitation 

guidance – WPC, ESRL/PSD– Improving extended range temperature forecast for transition seasons (Spring and 

Fall mainly) through comparing current NAEFS SPP products – EMC– Improving precipitation forecast accuracy and reliability; applications of analog 

QPF/PQPF and model climatology via “extreme forecast index” – WR/regions, ESRL/PSD

• Expectations from users– Running in real time when the model upgrade– Optimum configuration to minimize the cost, maximize the benefits– Special session discussion in Dec. 2013 (NPSV)– Will discuss in coming “6th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop”

Future Plans• Improving numerical forecast system

– Resolutions– Initial perturbations– Model uncertainties (include surface perturbations)

• NAEFS extension– Increasing memberships (and models)– Extended to 30 days to cover week 3&4– Coupling ocean‐atmosphere

• Post processing– Real time reforecast– Improving methodologies– Higher moment calibration

• International collaboration– THORPEX legacy  ‐ S2S, GIFS‐TIGGE(?)– Other centers

Background !!!

NCEP CMC FNMOCModel GFS GEM Global Spectrum

Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF (9) Banded ETModel uncertainty

StochasticYes (STTP) Yes (multi-physics and

Stochastic)None

Tropical storm Relocation None NoneDaily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC

Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55kmT190L42 (d8-16)~70km

600*300 (66km)L72

T159L42 ~ 80km

Control Yes Yes NoEnsemble members

20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle

Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours)Post-process Bias correction for

ensemble meanBias correction for

each memberBias correction for

member meanLast

implementation February 14 2012 February 13 2013 NAVGEM

implementation on February 13 2013

NUOPC Current StatusUpdated: February 13 2013

NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod: January 1st – December 31st 2013

GFS – 8.08d

GEFS – 9.39d

NAEFS – 9.76d

Need to make up GFS scores later