Multidimensional Poverty and Inequality in the Arab Region

Bilal Al-Kiswani (Ph.D.)

Economic Development and Integration Division

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Outline

Poverty and Inequality

Benefit Incidence of Social Protection

Way forward

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SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Targets:

1.1 By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day

1.2 By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions

1.3 Implement nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all, including floors, and by 2030 achieve substantial coverage of the poor and the vulnerable

1.4 By 2030, ensure that all men and women, in particular the poor and the vulnerable, have equal rights to economic resources, as well as access to basic services, ownership and control over land and other forms of property, inheritance, natural resources, appropriate new technology and financial services, including microfinance

1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters

1.A Ensure significant mobilization of resources from a variety of sources, including through enhanced development cooperation, in order to provide adequate and predictable means for developing countries, in particular least developed countries, to implement programmes and policies to end poverty in all its dimensions

1.B Create sound policy frameworks at the national, regional and international levels, based on pro-poor and gender-sensitive development strategies, to support accelerated investment in poverty eradication actions

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Multidimensional Poverty Situation (1)

Arab Multidimensional Poverty Report (LAS, ESCWA, OPHI, UNICEF 2017) put forward an index tailored for the Arab Region to measure multidimensional poverty

40.6% of households are poor and 13.4% live in acute poverty

JordanTunisia

Algeria

EgyptIraq

Morocco

Comoros

Yemen

SudanMauritania

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 20 40 60 80 100

Incid

en

ce

of A

cu

te P

ove

rty (

%)

Incidence of Poverty (%)

Cluster 3

Cluster 2

Cluster 1

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Multidimensional Poverty (2)

High prevalence of acute poverty in LDCs, high prevalence of vulnerability in MICs, and wide disparities and disadvantage for rural areas, households whose head has no education, and families in the bottom wealth quintile

0.2 1.4

20.95.5 5.3

11.6

49.7

17.51.8

6.3

21.6

7.619.2

29.6

23.1

22.6

5.6

16.2

20.4

11.7

27.0

31.0

15.8

25.292.4

76.2

37.0

75.2

48.6

27.8

11.4

34.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cluster 1Cluster 2Cluster 3RegionalAverage

Cluster1 Cluster2 Cluster3 RegionalAverage

Non-PoorVulnerable to poverty (deprivation score 20-33.32%)Poor excluding the severly poor (Deprivation score 33.3-50%)Severly Poor (deprivation score >50%)

Acute Poverty Poverty

0

20

40

60

80

Tota

lR

ura

lU

rban

FHH

MH

HN

o e

du

cati

on

Hig

hes

t ed

uca

tio

nB

ott

om

qu

inti

leTo

p q

uin

tile

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

8+

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

14

Tota

lR

ura

lU

rban

FHH

MH

HN

o e

du

cati

on

Hig

hes

t ed

uca

tio

nB

ott

om

qu

inti

leTo

p q

uin

tile

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

8+

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

14

Poverty Acute Poverty

Inci

den

ce o

f p

ove

rty

(%)

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Multidimensional Poverty (2)

Dimension contribution

64.352.7 52.2

59.3 62.2

47.838.8 37.8 38.0 38.2

15.7

15.6 13.6

24.4 15.9

13.8

17.0 19.7 15.0 15.8

19.9

31.8 34.2

16.321.9

38.444.3 42.5 47.0 46.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Jo

rdan

Tu

nis

ia

Alg

eri

a

Egyp

t

Ira

q

Mo

rocco

Com

oro

s

Yem

en

Sud

an

Ma

urita

nia

Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3

Education Health Living Standards

Completion Rates by wealth

Indicator Years of Education: Gaps between

rural and urban areas

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2014 2002 2012 2000 2014 2011 2002 2012 2000 2011 2000 2012 2013 2000 2014 2007 2015

Palestine Jordan Egypt Tunisia Algeria Iraq Comoros Yemen Sudan Mauritania

Ave

rage

yea

rs o

f sc

ho

olin

g

Rural Urban Palestinian camp National average

Page 9

Indicator Years of Education: Gaps between

educated and non-educated head of households

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2002 2012 2006 2014 2002 2012 2000 2014 2000 2012 2000 2011 2000 2014

JOR PSE DZA EGY COM IRQ SDN

Ratio

of E

du

cate

d/

no

n-e

du

cate

d H

oH

HY

ears

of

Ed

ucati

on

Education HoH (12 Years or more) Education of Head of household (none) Ratio Secondary/No Education

Page 10

Indicator Years of Education: Gaps by wealth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2006 2014 2002 2012 2000 2014 2011 2000 2011 2000 2012 2013 2000 2014 2007 2015

Palestine Jordan Egypt Tunisia Iraq Comoros Yemen Sudan Mauritania

Ave

rage

yea

rs o

f sc

ho

olin

g

Poorest Poor Middle Rich Richest National average

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Egypt: Benefit Incidence of Energy Subsidies

Consumption subsidies represent a

particularly heavy fiscal burden, reaching 10% of GDP in

Egypt (Ministry of Finance, 2012). Energy subsidies which

account for 6.2% of GDP has very low benefit incidence to

the poor…

MoF, PEP, and

UNICEF (2014)

Iraq: Benefit Incidence of Cash Transfer

• social protection transfers provide up to one third of the recipient poor households incomes;

• Social protection transfers are associated with lower risk to child poverty and deprivation in health, nutrition, and water and sanitation; the effect is higher in Governorates with better services;

• Though only 1 in 4 of the recipients of Social Safety Net were poor;

• Social transfers are implemented in isolation from social services (conceptually and programmatically);

99.4

10.619.5

98.6

7.6

26.720.0

25.815.3

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

PDS FoodRations

Cash Transfers Public Pensions

Benefit Incidence of Social Transfers 2012 (%)

% poor receiving

% non poor receiving

% of recipients who are poor

Multidimensional Poverty

Columbia

Multidimensional Poverty

Columbia

• National Development Plan

• Social Protection Programs

• Targeting Strategy

• Social Spending

• Monitoring and Accountability

15

Source: Multidimensional Poverty Index – Applications Colombia. Presentation to the FirstMultidimensional Poverty Peer Network meeting by Bruce Mac Master, Director of the Department for SocialProsperity. Oxford, June 2013

Dashboard based on a stoplight system –

sector specific goals

Dimensions

and weights

indicators

Educational

achievement

Literacy School

attendance

School

lag

Access to

childcare

services

Children

not

working

No one in

long-term

unemploy.

Formal

employment

Health

insurance

Access to

healthcare

Adequate

floors

Person 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 7

Person 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Person 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 5

Person 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

Person 5 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 10

…… ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..….. …..

Total

number

of depri-

vations

…..…..

0 1 0 0

0 0 1 0

0 0 0 0

1 1 0 1

Access to

water

source

Adequate

elimination of

sewer waste

Adequate

external

walls

No critical

overcrowding

0 0 0 0

Deprivation matrix Year 0Educational conditions

of household (20%)Children and youth condition (20%) Employment (20%) Health (20%) Access to public utilities and household conditions (20%)

Dimensions

and weights

indicators

Educational

achievement

Literacy School

attendance

School

lag

Access to

childcare

services

Children

not

working

No one in

long-term

unemploy.

Formal

employment

Health

insurance

Access to

healthcare

Adequate

floors

Person 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 6

Person 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Person 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 5

Person 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

Person 5 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 9

…… ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..….. ….. …..

Total

number

of depri-

vations

…..

0 1 0 0

0 0 1 0

0 0 0 0

1 1 0 1

Access to

water

source

Adequate

elimination of

sewer waste

Adequate

external

walls

No critical

overcrowding

0 0 0 0

Deprivation matrix Year 1 Educational conditions

of household (20%)Children and youth condition (20%) Employment (20%) Health (20%) Access to public utilities and household conditions (20%)

1. Identify social

investment by

sector

2. Simulate those investments

in survey following sector-

specific focalization rules

3. Generate new

deprivation matrix

simulating the changes

Simulations on microdata - Colombia

It could be done the other way around to estimate the cost of

achieving specific SDGs

THANK YOU

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Education

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Health

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Living Conditions

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Living Conditions