Multi-National Force-Iraq

Charts to accompany the testimony ofGEN David H. Petraeus

10-11 September 2007

Tal AfarTal Afar

KarbalaKarbala

An NajafAn Najaf

An NasiriyahAn Nasiriyah

Al KutAl Kut

BaqubahBaqubah

Major Threats to Iraq

BasrahBasrah

Intra-Shi’a Violence

Lethal Aid, Training, Funding

Foreign Fighter

Flow

Shi’a Infighting Over Power/Resources

RamadiRamadi

Anti-AQI Tribal Success

Tikrit

SamarraSamarra

MosulMosul

Kirkuk

0 100 mi

AQI/Insurgent & Shi’a Militias

BaghdadBaghdad

AQI/Sunni

Insurgents

AQI

FallujahFallujah

SAUDI ARABIA

SYRIA

TURKEY

IRAN

PKK

AQI/Insurgent & Shi’a Militias

1

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1-O

ct-0

422

-Oct

-04

12-N

ov-0

403

-Dec

-04

24-D

ec-0

414

-Jan

-05

04-F

eb-0

525

-Feb

-05

18-M

ar-0

508

-Apr

-05

29-A

pr-0

520

-May

-05

10-J

un-0

501

-Jul

-05

22-J

ul-0

512

-Aug

-05

02-S

ep-0

523

-Sep

-05

14-O

ct-0

504

-Nov

-05

25-N

ov-0

516

-Dec

-05

06-J

an-0

627

-Jan

-06

17-F

eb-0

610

-Mar

-06

31-M

ar-0

621

-Apr

-06

12-M

ay-0

602

-Jun

-06

23-J

un-0

614

-Jul

-06

04-A

ug-0

625

-Aug

-06

15-S

ep-0

606

-Oct

-06

27-O

ct-0

617

-Nov

-06

08-D

ec-0

629

-Dec

-06

19-J

an-0

709

-Feb

-07

02-M

ar-0

723

-Mar

-07

13-A

pr-0

704

-May

-07

25-M

ay-0

715

-Jun

-07

06-J

ul-0

727

-Jul

-07

17-A

ug-0

707

-Sep

-07

Attacks Against Iraqi Infrastructure & Government Facilities

Bombs (IEDs), both Found and Exploded

Sniper, Ambush, Grenade, and Other Small Arms Attacks

Mortar and Rocket Attacks

Overall Weekly Iraq Attack Trends Overall Weekly Iraq Attack Trends 1 October 2004 1 October 2004 –– 7 September 20077 September 2007

Baghdad Security Plan

15 Feb 07

Samarra mosque bombing22 Feb 06

Parliamentary elections, 15 Dec 05

Iraqi referendum15 Oct 05

Iraqi elections30 Jan 05

Surge ofoffensives16 Jun 07

2

Iraq Civilian DeathsIraq Civilian Deaths

As of 31 Aug 07

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500Ja

n-06

Feb-

06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug

-06

Sep

-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

IraqBaghdad

Source: Coalition and Host National Reporting 3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug

-06

Sep-

06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Iraq

10 Baghdad SecurityDistricts

EthnoEthno--Sectarian ViolenceSectarian Violence

DensityLeast Most

Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed

Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed

Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed DEC 06 FEB 07

As of 31 Aug 07

MAY 07

Density plots are of incidents where deaths Density plots are of incidents where deaths occurred from any means that were clearly occurred from any means that were clearly ethnoethno--sectarian in motivation, to include car sectarian in motivation, to include car bombs bombs

Ethno-Sectarian Deaths AUG 07

4

Caches Found & Cleared

•- &

•MND•-•B Cache440921111 JAN 07-7 SEP 07

272612222006

26916922004

309114832005

IraqAnbarYear

5

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500Ju

l-06

Aug

-06

Sep-

06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Total IED IraqTotal IED BaghdadTotal IED Anbar

Improvised Explosive Devices (Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDsIEDs))

Total IEDs = IED explosions + IEDs found + IED hoaxes 6

AnbarAnbar AttacksAttacks

DensityLeast Most

AUG 07

OCT 06

As of 31 Aug 07

Density plots are of locationsDensity plots are of locationswhere attacks occurredwhere attacks occurred

JAN 07 MAR 07

Anbar

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug

-06

Sep-

06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

AttacksTrend

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

04-A

ug-0

6

25-A

ug-0

6

15-S

ep-0

6

06-O

ct-0

6

27-O

ct-0

6

17-N

ov-0

6

08-D

ec-0

6

29-D

ec-0

6

19-J

an-0

7

09-F

eb-0

7

02-M

ar-0

7

23-M

ar-0

7

13-A

pr-0

7

04-M

ay-0

7

25-M

ay-0

7

15-J

un-0

7

06-J

ul-0

7

27-J

ul-0

7

17-A

ug-0

7

07-S

ep-0

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

4-A

ug-0

6

25-A

ug-0

6

15-S

ep-0

6

6-O

ct-0

6

27-O

ct-0

6

17-N

ov-0

6

8-D

ec-0

6

29-D

ec-0

6

19-J

an-0

7

9-Fe

b-07

2-M

ar-0

7

23-M

ar-0

7

13-A

pr-0

7

4-M

ay-0

7

25-M

ay-0

7

15-J

un-0

7

6-Ju

l-07

27-J

ul-0

7

17-A

ug-0

7

7-S

ep-0

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

4-A

ug-0

6

25-A

ug-0

6

15-S

ep-0

6

6-O

ct-0

6

27-O

ct-0

6

17-N

ov-0

6

8-D

ec-0

6

29-D

ec-0

6

19-J

an-0

7

9-Fe

b-07

2-M

ar-0

7

23-M

ar-0

7

13-A

pr-0

7

4-M

ay-0

7

25-M

ay-0

7

15-J

un-0

7

6-Ju

l-07

27-J

ul-0

7

17-A

ug-0

7

7-S

ep-0

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

04-A

ug-0

6

25-A

ug-0

6

15-S

ep-0

6

06-O

ct-0

6

27-O

ct-0

6

17-N

ov-0

6

08-D

ec-0

6

29-D

ec-0

6

19-J

an-0

7

09-F

eb-0

7

02-M

ar-0

7

23-M

ar-0

7

13-A

pr-0

7

04-M

ay-0

7

25-M

ay-0

7

15-J

un-0

7

06-J

ul-0

7

27-J

ul-0

7

17-A

ug-0

7

07-S

ep-0

7

Iraq Violence TrendsIraq Violence Trends

BaghdadSalah ad Din Province

Ninewah ProvinceAnbar Province

Level of Violence = Attacks + Murders Events As of 7 Sep 07 8

As of 31 AUG 07; High Profile = Car bombs + suicide car bombs + suicide vests

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200M

ay-0

6

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug

-06

Sep-

06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Total High Profile AttacksCar BombSuicide Car BombSuicide Vest

`

High Profile AttacksHigh Profile Attacks

9

AQI East Side Military Emir in Mosul

Emir of Hay al Jama’ah

Financial Emir in Jazirah

AQI Emir of Amiriyah

Facilitator

Facilitator

AQI Weapons Facilitator

AQI Facilitator

Military Advisor

AQI Cell Leader

Media Network

Media Network

VBIED Cell

Financier

North Karkh

Second in CommandAQI in Karmah

AQI Emir for Salah ad Din

AQI Emir for Mosul

Senior Iraqi AQI Leader

Sniper Cell LeaderAQI Mosul

City EmirAQI Samarra

KidnappingCell Leader

Special Group

AQI External Facilitator

Admin Emir

Military Emir

Security Emirfor Executions

Logistics Emir

Emir of Arab Jabour

JAN 07JAN 07JAN 07JAN 07 State of Al Qaeda IraqState of Al Qaeda Iraq

BAGHDADBAGHDAD

SAMARRASAMARRA

KIRKUKKIRKUK

MUQDADIYAHMUQDADIYAH

BA’QUBAHBA’QUBAH

RAMADIRAMADIHITHIT

AL QA’IMAL QA’IM

TIKRITTIKRIT

AS SULAYMANIYAHAS SULAYMANIYAH

MOSULMOSULAUG 07AUG 07

July to September2007

KilledCaptured

Strategic Detention/EKIA15 June to 5 September 07

Emirs of:YusafiyahN. Iraq SamarraMosulDiyalaNorth Karkh

Media Cells:RamadiGhazaliyahBaghdadBaqubahSamarra

Arab JabourHay alAndullahSinjar

Emir of Sinjar

10

Tarmiyah

Tal AfarTal Afar

KarbalaKarbala

An NajafAn Najaf

An NasiriyahAn Nasiriyah

Al KutAl Kut

BaqubahBaqubah

BasraBasra

SamarraSamarra

MosulMosul

BaghdadBaghdad

Tikrit

FallujaFallujaRamadiRamadi

SunniMixedShi’a

Security Volunteers

Tribal Engagement

VettedIn hiring process forIraqi Security Forces

Local Security Forces29.8K28.4K

11

Iraqi Security Forces Capabilities

Iraqi Army Battalions, National Police Battalions, and Special Operating Force Battalions

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170180

Nov

-05

Dec

-05

Jan-

06

Feb-

06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06

Jul-0

6

Aug

-06

Sep-

06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug

-07

Sep-

07

Level IV - Unit FormingLevel III - Fighting Side by SideLevel II - Iraqi Lead with Coalition SupportLevel I - Fully Independent

12

15

12

10

7

5

20

LeadingLeading to Partnering to Overwatch (Tactical to Operational to Strategito Partnering to Overwatch (Tactical to Operational to Strategic)c)

20-15 Dec 07

Time

15-12

DecisionPointNLT

Mar 08

12-10?

10-7

?

7-5?

Primary Brigade MissionStrategic OverwatchOperational OverwatchTactical OverwatchPartneringLeading

Recommended Force Reductions/Mission ShiftSep 07

Jul 08

Date Determined NLT Mar 08

13