(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics Skeptics of Human-Caused Global Warming

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics

Skeptics of Human-Caused Global WarmingSkeptics of Human-Caused Global Warming


Who are the skeptics?Who are the skeptics?

Two rough categories:Two rough categories:

1.1. Constructive criticism, founded in scienceConstructive criticism, founded in science

2.2. Others - rehash old arguments, cherry-pick literature, Others - rehash old arguments, cherry-pick literature, sometimes deceptivesometimes deceptive


Category 1 - Constructive CriticsCategory 1 - Constructive Critics

Some examples:Some examples:

1.1. Richard Lindzen (moisture/radiation feedbacks)Richard Lindzen (moisture/radiation feedbacks)

2.2. John Christy (upper atmosphere temperatures)John Christy (upper atmosphere temperatures)

3.3. Chris Landsea (hurricanes and global warming)Chris Landsea (hurricanes and global warming)

4.4. Roger Pielke, Sr. (instrumental measurements)Roger Pielke, Sr. (instrumental measurements)


Category 2 - OthersCategory 2 - Others


1.1. Frederick SeitzFrederick Seitz

2.2. S. Fred SingerS. Fred Singer

3.3. A. B. Robinson and colleaguesA. B. Robinson and colleagues


Growth in Climate-Change AwarenessGrowth in Climate-Change Awareness

(Growth in the Peer-Reviewed Literature)(Growth in the Peer-Reviewed Literature)

Lindzen, 1990: Some coolness concerning global warming.


Growth in Climate-Change AwarenessGrowth in Climate-Change Awareness

(Growth in the “Prestige” Literature)(Growth in the “Prestige” Literature)

Lindzen, 1990: Some coolness concerning global warming.


Lindzen - Importance of WaterLindzen - Importance of Water

““The most likely place to search for severe problems is in the The most likely place to search for severe problems is in the interaction of climate with water (in all its phases).”interaction of climate with water (in all its phases).”

(Lindzen, 1990)(Lindzen, 1990)


Lindzen: “Iris” Effect - 1Lindzen: “Iris” Effect - 1



Lindzen: Lindzen: “Iris” Effect - “Iris” Effect -

22



Global mean temperatures: 1980 vs. 2003Global mean temperatures: 1980 vs. 2003

?

?


Lindzen et al. (2001): Lindzen et al. (2001): Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?

Lindzen et al. (2001)Lindzen et al. (2001)

Clouds as surrogate for high tropical

humidity?


Lindzen et al. (2001): Lindzen et al. (2001): Cloud Area vs. Ocean Cloud Area vs. Ocean

TemperatureTemperature


Hypothesis: Hypothesis:

Precipitation processes Precipitation processes are more efficient (faster, are more efficient (faster, more thorough) in a more thorough) in a warmer climate.warmer climate.


Lindzen et al. (2001): Lindzen et al. (2001): Satellite Observations Satellite Observations over Tropical Pacificover Tropical Pacific

Lindzen et al. (2001)

“High” clouds “Thicker” clouds


Hartman & Michelsen (2002): No Evidence for IrisHartman & Michelsen (2002): No Evidence for Iris

Regression of cloud Regression of cloud fraction at each point fraction at each point (1˚ x 1˚ grid) with the (1˚ x 1˚ grid) with the cloud-weighted SST cloud-weighted SST (average SST under (average SST under

clouds) clouds)

Hartmann & Michelsen (2002)Hartmann & Michelsen (2002)

Cloud cover as SST under clouds

Cloud cover as SST under clouds

Cloud cover as SST under clouds “…“…the subtropical the subtropical clouds that provide clouds that provide most of the variation in most of the variation in cloud-weighted SST cloud-weighted SST and most of the and most of the negative correlation negative correlation with mean cloud cover with mean cloud cover are not physically are not physically connected to deep connected to deep tropical convective tropical convective cores..cores...”.”


Lindzen et al. (2002): A rebuttal - 1Lindzen et al. (2002): A rebuttal - 1

Deep convection Deep convection occurs all over the occurs all over the

tropicstropics

(05 August 1998)(05 August 1998)

Lindzen et al. (2002)


Lindzen et al. (2002): Lindzen et al. (2002): A rebuttal - 2A rebuttal - 2

Results not sensitive to threshold for Results not sensitive to threshold for high-cloud detection (?)high-cloud detection (?)



Lindzen et al. (2002): A rebuttal - 3Lindzen et al. (2002): A rebuttal - 3

Results stronger for region closer to equatorResults stronger for region closer to equator


R = -0.301

25 S - 25 N25 S - 25 N30 S - 30 N30 S - 30 N


Further on “Iris”Further on “Iris”

Lin et al. (2002)Lin et al. (2002) - Observations show cirrus-anvil clouds have - Observations show cirrus-anvil clouds have much higher albedo and moderately larger longwave fluxes than much higher albedo and moderately larger longwave fluxes than in Lindzen et al. in Lindzen et al.

Cloud decreases has significant but weak Cloud decreases has significant but weak positive feedbackpositive feedback instead of strong negative feedback.instead of strong negative feedback.

Horvath & Soden (2005)Horvath & Soden (2005) - No causal link between cirrus anvils - No causal link between cirrus anvils and moistening of atmosphere below.and moistening of atmosphere below.

- higher SST leads to stronger cumulus convection - higher SST leads to stronger cumulus convection (thunderstorms) and slightly larger, longer lasting cirrus anvils(thunderstorms) and slightly larger, longer lasting cirrus anvils


Category 2 - OthersCategory 2 - Others


1.1. Frederick SeitzFrederick Seitz

2.2. S. Fred SingerS. Fred Singer

3.3. A. B. Robinson and colleaguesA. B. Robinson and colleagues


““Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”

Printed:Printed:

1. 1998, by A. B. Robinson, S. L. Baliunas, W. Soon and Z. W.1. 1998, by A. B. Robinson, S. L. Baliunas, W. Soon and Z. W.Robinson. Robinson. Made to look like a reprint from the Made to look like a reprint from the Publications of the Publications of the National Academy of Sciences. National Academy of Sciences. Mailed to tens of thousands of U.S. Mailed to tens of thousands of U.S. scientists, with cover note signed by “Frederick Seitz, Past scientists, with cover note signed by “Frederick Seitz, Past President of the National Academy of Sciences” + a petition.President of the National Academy of Sciences” + a petition.

National Academy of Sciences press release:“The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal … The petition does not reflect the in any other peer-reviewed journal … The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy.conclusions of expert reports of the Academy.”


““Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”

Printed:Printed:

1. 1998, by A. B. Robinson, S. L. Baliunas, W. Soon and Z. W.1. 1998, by A. B. Robinson, S. L. Baliunas, W. Soon and Z. W.Robinson. Robinson. Made to look like a reprint from the Made to look like a reprint from the Publications of the Publications of the National Academy of Sciences. National Academy of Sciences. Mailed to tens of thousands of U.S. Mailed to tens of thousands of U.S. scientists, with cover note signed by “Frederick Seitz, Past scientists, with cover note signed by “Frederick Seitz, Past President of the National Academy of Sciences” + a petition.President of the National Academy of Sciences” + a petition.

2. 1999, by W. Soon, S. L. Baliunas, A. B. Robinson and Z. W.2. 1999, by W. Soon, S. L. Baliunas, A. B. Robinson and Z. W.Robinson, in Robinson, in Climate ResearchClimate Research. . Peer-reviewed - but controversy Peer-reviewed - but controversy surrounding its acceptance.surrounding its acceptance.

3. 2007, by A. B. Robinson, N.E. Robinson and W. Soon, in 3. 2007, by A. B. Robinson, N.E. Robinson and W. Soon, in Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons. New petition drive.New petition drive.


Their Fig. 1: Temperature Reconstruction: Sargasso Sea Their Fig. 1: Temperature Reconstruction: Sargasso Sea

This does not represent the whole hemisphere! (~ 2% of NH)This does not represent the whole hemisphere! (~ 2% of NH)(Nor do they try to show that it does)(Nor do they try to show that it does)


Contrast: Their Fig. 1 with Hemispheric ReconstructionsContrast: Their Fig. 1 with Hemispheric Reconstructions

AR4 - WG 1 - Chapter 6AR4 - WG 1 - Chapter 6


Their Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar VariabilityTheir Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar Variability

Uses outdated Uses outdated estimate of solar estimate of solar

irradianceirradiance

(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)

Ignores attribution to Ignores attribution to solar forcing based on solar forcing based on physical computationsphysical computations

(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)

Does not understand Does not understand (or misrepresents) (or misrepresents)

relationship between relationship between COCO22 increase, forcing increase, forcing

change, and Earth’s change, and Earth’s responseresponse

(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)


Their Fig. 9: Land-Falling Hurricanes Their Fig. 9: Land-Falling Hurricanes

A small portion of all hurricanesA small portion of all hurricanes Ignores shifts in distributions of Ignores shifts in distributions of hurricanes (storm tracks)hurricanes (storm tracks)


Singer & Avery BookSinger & Avery Book

(Used to claim warming was not (Used to claim warming was not occurring)occurring)

(published (published 20082008))

““Evidence that our warming is Evidence that our warming is natural is found in more than 100 natural is found in more than 100 peer-reviewed papers published in peer-reviewed papers published in professional journals, with literally professional journals, with literally hundreds of co-authors, cited in hundreds of co-authors, cited in this book” this book”


Timing of Temperature ChangesTiming of Temperature Changes

““The fact that there has been no warming trend in the U.S. since the 1930s seriously The fact that there has been no warming trend in the U.S. since the 1930s seriously undermines claims that the effects of global warming are already being felt in the U.S.” undermines claims that the effects of global warming are already being felt in the U.S.” (J. Bast - Editor of the book) (J. Bast - Editor of the book)

U.S. = ~2% of global surface area


Temperature Reconstruction?Temperature Reconstruction?

How much warmer was it?How much warmer was it? Not 1995 report - 1990 report: A Not 1995 report - 1990 report: A schematicschematic sketch! sketch!


Temperature Reconstruction?Temperature Reconstruction?

““Six years later [in the TAR], the Six years later [in the TAR], the IPCC was either bolder or more IPCC was either bolder or more desperate..”desperate..”

““In effect, the IPCC told us to ignore In effect, the IPCC told us to ignore the overwhelming historic and the overwhelming historic and physical evidence…”physical evidence…”

(AR4-WG1-Ch6)(AR4-WG1-Ch6)

““Mann was named an IPCC lead Mann was named an IPCC lead author and an editor of the author and an editor of the Journal Journal of Climate … of Climate … signaling the new signaling the new order of things to the rest of his order of things to the rest of his professionprofession.”.”


Upper Upper Troposphere Troposphere Water VaporWater Vapor

(from satellite (from satellite observations)observations)

Baseline: 1982-2004

““There is no evidence There is no evidence that the upper that the upper atmosphere is retaining atmosphere is retaining more water vapor.” more water vapor.” Singer & Avery (Singer & Avery (20082008))

Soden et al. (Soden et al. (20052005))


Heat Vent?Heat Vent?

Baseline: 1982-2004

““A team of researchers A team of researchers from NASA and MIT from NASA and MIT recently discovered a recently discovered a natural climatic heat natural climatic heat vent in the Earth’s vent in the Earth’s atmosphere … [that] atmosphere … [that] appears to be big appears to be big enough to vent all the enough to vent all the heat the models predict heat the models predict would be generated by would be generated by a doubling of COa doubling of CO22.” .”

Singer & Avery (Singer & Avery (20082008))

Referring to “Iris Referring to “Iris Effect” (2001), Effect” (2001), ignoring later ignoring later

counter evidence counter evidence


Cosmic Rays and Cloud Cover?Cosmic Rays and Cloud Cover?

A possible natural effect not included in climate models:A possible natural effect not included in climate models:

- more cosmic rays lead to more cosmic rays lead to

- more cloud condensation nucleimore cloud condensation nuclei

- more cloud covermore cloud cover

- cooler climatecooler climate

- with warming when cosmic rays are weaker (blown away from the with warming when cosmic rays are weaker (blown away from the earth by a stronger solar wind earth by a stronger solar wind


Reflected Solar RadiationReflected Solar Radiation

SatellitesModels

Deceasing Cloud Cover?


Cosmic Rays and Cloud Cover?Cosmic Rays and Cloud Cover?

A possible natural effect not included in climate models:A possible natural effect not included in climate models:

- more cosmic rays lead to more cosmic rays lead to

- more cloud condensation nucleimore cloud condensation nuclei

- more cloud covermore cloud cover

- cooler climatecooler climate

- with warming when cosmic rays are weaker (blown away from the with warming when cosmic rays are weaker (blown away from the earth by a stronger solar wind earth by a stronger solar wind

““The mechanism by which cosmic rays might affect climate is as The mechanism by which cosmic rays might affect climate is as yet purely speculative and unquantified. While it has long been yet purely speculative and unquantified. While it has long been known that radiation could form ions and, in theory, ultimately lead known that radiation could form ions and, in theory, ultimately lead to cloud formation, the importance of this process compared to all to cloud formation, the importance of this process compared to all the other major sources of particles and cloud condensation nuclei the other major sources of particles and cloud condensation nuclei has not been proven. Indeed, there is no evidence that the flux of has not been proven. Indeed, there is no evidence that the flux of cosmic rays has decreased over the last 30 years.” - UK Met Officecosmic rays has decreased over the last 30 years.” - UK Met Office

(www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths)(www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths)

(Fig: D.E. Vincent)


Other ContentionsOther Contentions

(Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research)

““It’s the sun”It’s the sun”

Reconstructed irradianceReconstructed irradianceTemperature recordsTemperature records



(IPCC AR4 – Ch. 1)

““Model’s can’t forecast weather beyond a few days Model’s can’t forecast weather beyond a few days – – so they can’t show climate decades ahead.”so they can’t show climate decades ahead.”

Model projections of global temperature




““Climate has changed without humans. It’s all natural cycles.”Climate has changed without humans. It’s all natural cycles.”

Simulations with natural forcings only




““Climate has changed without humans. It’s all natural cycles.”Climate has changed without humans. It’s all natural cycles.”

Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature




““In the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now they’ve In the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now they’ve flip-flopped ”flip-flopped ”

Global Temperature Indicator from Ice Cores

Interglacial Periods New Ice Age Starting?

[Thousands of yr]


How should you view discussions?How should you view discussions?

Don’t rely on one source of informationDon’t rely on one source of information

Watch for false “balance”Watch for false “balance”

Watch for carefully selected dataWatch for carefully selected data• ““Lies, **** lies and statistics” (M. Twain and others)Lies, **** lies and statistics” (M. Twain and others)

Be wary of information sources, especially those thatBe wary of information sources, especially those that• attack the credibility of opponentsattack the credibility of opponents• engage in name calling engage in name calling • provide little evidence from peer-reviewed literatureprovide little evidence from peer-reviewed literature


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Skeptics of Human-Caused Global WarmingSkeptics of Human-Caused Global Warming

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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics Skeptics of Human-Caused Global Warming