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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form MEDI-CAPS INSTITUTE OF TECHNO MANAGEMENT MAJOR RESEARCH PROJECT Titled INDIA’S IMPORT OF GOLD (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form A Major Research Project submitted as partial fulfilment for the award of the Degree of Masters of Business Administration (2013-2015) MEDI CAPS INSTITUTE OF TECHNO MANAGEMENT

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form

MEDI-CAPS INSTITUTE OF TECHNO MANAGEMENT

MAJOR RESEARCH PROJECT

Titled

INDIA’S IMPORT OF GOLD (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form

A Major Research Project submitted as partial fulfilment for the award of the Degree of Masters of Business Administration (2013-2015)

Under the supervision of: Submitted by: Dr.Sanjivni Gangwani Miss. Rupal Goyal

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form MBA (FT) 4th SEM

CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY BY THE STUDENT

I, RUPAL GOYAL here by certify that the project titled “INDIA’S IMPORT OF GOLD

(included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form

” has been undertaken under the supervision of PROF. DR. SANJIVNI GANGWANI, towards

partial fulfilment of degree of Masters of Business Administration (Foreign Trade).

It is further certified that the project report compiled by me is my own work and do the best of

my own knowledge it does not contain any part of any work, which has been submitted for the

award of degree in this university, or any other University/ Deemed University without proper

citation.

Date: RUPAL GOYAL

Place: Indore MBA (F.T.) IV SEM

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form

CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY BY THE SUPERVISOR

This is to certify that the project titled “INDIA’S IMPORT OF GOLD (included gold plated with

platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form” is a piece of research work

has been done by RUPAL GOYAL under my guidance and supervision towards partial

fulfilment of degree of Masters Of Business Administration (Foreign Trade).I recommended that

the project to be submitted to Devi Ahilya Vishwa Vidhayalaya (DAVV), Indore.

Prof. Dr. Sanjivni Gangwani Dr. Manmeet Singh

(Signature of Project Guide) (Signature and Seal of Director)

DATE: DATE:

(Signature of External Examiner)

DATE:

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form

PREFACE

Being a student of Masters Of Business Administration (Foreign Trade) I have learned a lot of

things relating to Foreign Trade which mainly includes EXIM policy of India, Document

required in export and import proceeding, World Trade Organization, procurement of finance for

import and export and logistics system of a country . But the topic of my project “INDIA’S

IMPORT OF GOLD (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured

forms/in powdered form” unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered” helps me a lot to

learn about the various parameters of trade. The entire above topic gave me a lot of theoretical

knowledge about the Foreign Trade. But I was very keen to know that how the above subject will

help me in practical proceedings. So I am really happy that was provided with an opportunity to

work on the research topic, in which highlighted the India’s commercial trade relation.

This project will give a lot of knowledge and support to the exporter as well as students of

foreign trade, which will flush the knowledge regarding topic.

My project has given all the answer which the laymen and analyst need to know about the

India’s compatibility with the changing economic scenario. I think India still have a competitive

edge in world markets time and this factor now play a far more crucial role in determining

international competitiveness.

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ACKNOWLEGEMENT

The effort are always supported and blessed by people directly and indirectly related to you. I

would like to express my thankfulness to some of those who have given their support and

blessings during my research work.

I would like to thank Dr. Manmeet Singh, Director MITM, who has given me opportunity to

work on this project.

I would like to thank Dr. Sanjivni Gangwani, my research guide who has given me all essential

help, which I needed for the successful completion of research project.

I would also like to thank Mr. Gajanan Sir, Library in-charge for providing to the needs

throughout the research work.

I would be failing in my duty if I don’t thank my parents, family and friends who have remained

a constant source of inspiration throughout.

Last but not the least; I would like to thank Almighty for always showing me correct part in time

of difficulties.

Name : Rupal Goyal

Research Student, MITM

MBA (F.T.)-IV SEM

INDORE

DATE:

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IndexChapter No. Contents Page

No.Certificate by the Student

2

Certificate by the Supervisor

3

Preface 4

Acknowledgement 5

I 1. Introduction

1.1 History of gold

1.2 Indian and global gold economy

1.3 Key facts about India’s gold industries

1.4 Factors influencing gold market

1.5 International scenario

1.6 Research methodology

1.7 Objective

1.8 Tools for data collection

1.9 Hypothesis of study

8

II 2.Rationale and Significance of study

17

III 3. Literature Review

3.1 Books

3.2 News

20

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3.3 Articles

IV 4. Indian and International Gold Industries

4.1 World top ten importers ,exporters and producer4.2 Indian gold contract

4.3 Indian import policy and schemes

4.4 Government duties , measures and restrictions4.5 Indian’s trade relations with other countries

31

V 5. Data Collection and Analysis

45

VI 6. Findings 55

VII 7. Conclusion 57

VIII 8. References 59

IX 9. Bibliography 61

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CHAPTER- i

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1. Introduction

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au and atomic number 79. Is a dense, soft, malleable, and ductile metal with a bright yellow colour and lustre that is considered attractive, which is maintained without tarnishing in air or water. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, usually with tellurium.

Gold resists attacks by individual acids, but it can be dissolved by the aqua regia (nitro-hydrochloric acid), so named because it dissolves gold. Gold also dissolves in alkaline solutions of cyanide, which have been used in mining. It dissolves in mercury, forming amalgam alloys; is insoluble in nitric acid, which dissolves silver and base metals, a property that has long been used to confirm the presence of gold in items, giving rise to the term acid test .

This metal has been a valuable and highly sought-after precious metal for coinage, jewellery, and other arts since long before the beginning of recorded history. Gold standards have sometimes been monetary policies, but were widely supplanted by fiat currency starting in the 1930s. The last gold certificate and gold coin currencies were issued in the U.S. in 1932. In Europe, most countries left the gold standard with the start of World War I in 1914 and, with huge war debts, did not return to gold as a medium of exchange.

A total of 171,300 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history, according to GFMS as of 2011.[2] This is roughly equivalent to 5.5 billion troy ounces or, in terms of volume, about 8876 m3, or a cube 20.7 m on a side. The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewellery, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

Besides its widespread monetary and symbolic functions, gold has many practical uses in dentistry, electronics, and other fields. Its high malleability, ductility, resistance to corrosion and most other chemical reactions, and conductivity of electricity has led to many uses, including electric wiring, colour -glass production, and gold leafing.

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STORY OF GOLD

The story of gold is as rich and complex as the metal itself. Wars have been fought for it; love has been declared with it. Ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs portray gold as the brilliance of the sun; modern astronomers use mirrors coated with gold to capture images of the heavens.

By 325 BC the Greeks had mined for gold from Gibraltar to Asia Minor. In 1848 AD James Marshall found flakes of gold whilst building a saw mill near Sacramento and so triggered the gold rush in California. Held securely in national vaults as a reserve asset, gold has an irrefutable logic; released from the tombs of pharaohs and emperors alike, gold has an undeniable magic.

In Heritage we describe just some of the key moments from gold’s history. Further sections take time to discuss important fundamental issues such as the relationship of demand and supply, gold’s price history; the golden constant and gold’s contribution to society. Numbers and facts draws together some of the more extraordinary statistics which gold has accumulated across the centuries and around the world.

Gold is the oldest precious metal known to man and for thousands of years it has been valued as a global currency, a commodity, an investment and simply an object of beauty.

INDIA AND GLOBAL GOLD ECONOMY

Our position in the global gold economy in terms of broad magnitudes can be highlighted with a few facts. First, the total gold stock in India is estimated at 9,016 tonnes as against the world stocks of 1,28, 800 tonnes in 1994 giving a share of 7.0 per cent to India. This should be viewed against our share in land area at 2.4 per cent, in population at 16.4 per cent and in GDP at 1.2 per cent.

Second, mining and production of gold in India is negligible, now placed around 2 tonnes as against a total world production of about 2,272 tonnes in 1995.Third, during 1990-95, our share in global gold demand is placed at about 402 tonnes (16.4 per cent) a year, including imports into India. This should be viewed against our share of 0.6 per cent in world trade. On the other hand, India exported about 23 tonnes in 1995 accounting for a negligible part of world trade – though there was a brief period of illegal exports in the early 'seventies and substantial legal exports in the pre-independence era.

Fourth, it is pertinent to note that world gold trading is concentrated in the U.K., Switzerland, Dubai, Hong kong , etc. and India does not figure among them.

Fifth, facilities for refining, assaying, making them into standard bars in India, as compared to the rest of the world, are insignificant, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered formSixth, of the total gold reserves estimated to be on the books of Central Banks (subject to some Banks not declaring them) of 28,225.4 tonnes, the holdings of Reserve Bank of India are only a modest 397.5 tonnes. Government of India has in its possession some amount of gold mainly out of confiscation of smuggled gold remaining after transferring it to the Reserve Bank of India from time to time. Generally speaking RBI is neither a speaking purchaser nor a seller of gold reserves, unlike many other countries including some developing economies, especially in Asia. A part of gold was used by RBI (in parallel with gold with Government) for raising foreign currency resources during the balance of payments crisis in the early 'nineties. These overseas gold holdings are being used as part of reserve management to yield a return.

Seventh, use of gold as a financial product is virtually non-existent in India except to a limited extent of issuing ‘Gold Bonds’ by Government of India from time to time coupled with occasional tax amnesty. Commercial banks, however, accept gold as security, but no advances are permitted for purchase of gold by their customers for non productive use.

KEY FACTS ABOUT INDIA’S GOLD INDUSTRIES

India's centuries-old gold industry is the world's biggest market for the metal, with imports meeting almost all the country's requirements for jewellery and investment. While some aspects of the industry remain unchanged, some shifts in consumption patterns are striking. Here are facts on the industry and changes taking place. India in 2009 faced its weakest year since gold trade was freed up in 1997. Record high prices and a failed monsoon cut imports by 33 percent from the previous year to 480 tonnes, against an annual range between 600 and 800 tonnes in the previous five years.

Imports are high partly because of the large population of about 1.2 billion. Per capita gold consumption is only 0.7 grams, half that of the United States and one-third of the Middle East, according to World Gold Council (WGC) estimates.

India's gold market is estimated to have more than 300,000 jewellers, mostly small, family-run businesses, a WGC study showed.

Only 23 banks and some private and government trading agencies have licences to import gold because of its implications for foreign exchange flows.

India's 2010/11 budget raised the import duty on gold and platinum to 300 rupees ($6.65) per 10 grams from 200 rupees earlier, with the duty on silver raised to 1,500 rupees per kg from 1,000 rupees earlier.

Investment purchases of gold have been rising faster than jewellery purchases. WGC's latest data shows the investment to jewellery ratio is approximately at 20:80.

Gold in the form of exchange-traded funds is rising. Launched in 2007, the total collection among six fund houses is more than 10 tonnes.

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In urban areas, gold faces competition from diamonds as incomes have risen, but the higher purchasing power of the lower and middle income sections of the population has brought new customers into the market.

Large corporate jewellers, such as Titan Industries, Reliance Jewels, Rajesh Exports and the state-run MMTC Ltd are targeting the retail market with plans to have hundreds of shops, hoping to rely on branding to push up sales.

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE MARKET

Above ground supply of gold from central bank's sale, reclaimed scrap, and official gold loans.

Hedging interest of producers/miners. World macroeconomic factors such as the US Dollar, interest rate and economic events.

Commodity-specific events such as the construction of new production facilities or processes, unexpected mine or plant closures, or industry restructuring.

In India, gold demand is also determined to a large extent by its price level and volatility.

EXTERNAL SECTOR OF INDIA’S GOLD IMPORT

During 2011-12, high trade deficit caused, inter alia, by high gold imports led to worsening of the CAD. Had the gold imports in India grown by 24 per cent (an average of growth in world gold demand during part three years) instead of 39 per cent in 2011-12, the current account deficit would have been lower by approximately US$ 6 billion and CADGDP ratio would have been 3.9 per cent instead of 4.2 per cent. Thus, gold imports are putting pressure on the Balance of Payments management. The current trend in quantum of gold imports appears to be making India’s external sector vulnerable in terms of rising trade and current account deficits, which in the absence of adequate foreign capital flows, can have implications for maintaining adequate foreign exchange reserves buffer.

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INDIAN AND INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO

Indian Scenario

India, world’s largest market for gold jewellery and a key driver of the global gold demand. The

domestic drivers of gold demand are largely independent of outside forces. Indian households hold the largest stock of gold in the world. Two thirds of the Indian demand for gold comes from the rural parts of the country. In 2012, gold's role as an inflation hedge bolstered its appeal in India. India imported around 850 metric tonne (MT) of gold in 2012. India is known to be among the largest importers of gold in the world. The imports of gold by India have been rising unabated in recent years notwithstanding the sustained increase in gold prices. Such large import of gold, when the gold prices are ruling high is one major source of bulging trade deficit. The deterioration in current account deficit (CAD) due to large gold imports has implications for financing the same, which would reduce the foreign exchange reserves and could become a drag on the external debt. In this context, a major concern emerged is the impact of huge gold imports on external stability

Global Scenario

London is the world’s biggest clearing house. Mumbai is under India's liberalised gold regime .New York is the home of gold futures trading. Zurich is a physical turntable .Istanbul, Dubai, Singapore, and Hong Kong is doorways to important consuming regions. Tokyo, where TOCOM sets the mood of Japan.

International scenario

Gold, with the chemical symbol AU derived from the Latin word for gold- Aurum, has been the ultimate symbol of wealth from earliest civilizations to present, covering a period of some 8000 years. Historically used for jewellery, it has also acted as a base for global monetary reserves. It offers security foremost, then liquidity and income.

Gold usually occurs only in its metallic state. It is commonly associated with sulphide minerals such as pyrite, but it does not form a separate sulphide mineral. Gold is found in a variety of environments globally but generally requires grades in excess of 1 gram/tonne (1 part per million) to be considered economic. Gold can be found in primary ore deposits as fine disseminations throughout the host rock or as concentrations caused by favourable chemical and structural environments. Weathering of these primary ores can produce secondary gold concentrations, often as alluvial gold occurrences (sometimes called placer gold). South Africa, Australia, Canada and the USA are the world's primary gold producers.

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About 95% of South Africa's gold mines are underground operations, reaching depths of over 3.8 km. Its gold mines have the highest production costs in the industry. South Africa's main gold producing area is concentrated on the Archaen Witwatersrand Basin.

Discoveries of gold in the basin over a hundred years ago started a gold rush and resulted in the formation of the city of Johannesburg. The basin is massive and stretches through an arc of approximately 400 km across the Free State, North West and Gauteng Provinces. Some of South Africa's major gold producers (producing more than 1 million ounces annually) are Anglo gold, Goldfields, and Harmony. Due to numerous changes in control and mergers that have occurred in the South African Gold industry, many of the traditional names have been made redundant.

 Australia contains about 10% of the world's gold resources and is presently ranked 2nd after South Africa. Western Australia (Capital: Perth) is responsible for 75% of Australia's gold production and hosts approximately two thirds of Australia's 4500 tonnes gold resources. Western Australia's gold deposits are hosted by Archaen greenstone belts located in the Yilgarn carton in north-northwest trending structures.

 Australia is the second highest cost producer after South Africa. Gold is Australia's 2nd biggest export commodity after coal. Some of Australia's major gold producers have been Rio Tinto and Bar rick gold (these companies have global operations), Aurion Gold, representing the merged interests of Delta Gold and Goldfields Ltd, and Western Mining Corporation, once rated as Australia's 3rd largest gold producer with three operating gold mines as well as a joint venture with other gold producing interests in Canada and Uzbekistan. It has since sold its gold producing assets to South Africa's Gold Fields and Newcrest Mining. Placer Dome, rated amongst the top ten gold producers also has major mining operations in Australia. The USA is amongst the lowest cost gold producer with production cash costs in the vicinity of US $185 per ounce. The Carlin trend in Nevada has been responsible for most of USA's gold production providing a stable mining platform for several major gold producers such as Newmont, Placer Dome and Bar rick. Gold mineralization in the Carlin Trend is characterized by a large low grade sedimentary carbonated hosted gold resource. Newmont Mining remains the USA's largest gold producer and the World's number one in the year 2005 with a production of 199.7 tonnes of gold. The company was responsible for the discovery of the Carlin Trend in 1961 and has since developed 17 open pit and 4 underground mines in Nevada. Placer Dome is the second largest gold producer in the USA with most operations in Nevada and a single mine in Montana.

This company is one of the world's lowest cost gold producers, with cash costs at the Cortez-

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Pipeline joint venture with Kennecott Minerals totalling a low US $58 per

Ounce. Canadian gold was discovered in Quebec in 1823, British Columbia in 1852, Nova Scotia in 1860, Ontario in 1866 and the Yukon in 1896. Prospectors looking for favourable rock formations in the bush made the early discoveries. Now skilled geologists and geophysicists use complex exploration techniques to find these formations deep beneath the surface. Almost 90% of Canadian mines are underground operations, yet high productivity and other incentives keep the production costs amongst the lowest in the world. Several major mining companies are actively producing gold from Canada, including Placer Dome, Bar rick, and TVX Newmont Americas. Gold is also produced as a by-product from most of the base metal mines in Canada. In Canada, the system of flow- through shares enables investors to deduct 100% of eligible exploration expenditures from the federal portion of their taxes

The flow- through share system supports the high and sustained levels of exploration required to discover new mineral deposits by providing investors with tax breaks for investments in exploration projects. In the year 2000, the Canadian government also introduced an Investment Tax Credit for exploration known as the super flow through system, which allowed investors a 15% tax credit on their flow through share investments in grass roots exploration projects. It is estimated that the super flow through system has generated $1.4 billion in exploration spending since its inception in 2000. Resources worth billions of dollars such as gold at Hemlo, diamonds at Lac de Gras and nickel and copper at Voisey's Bay- have been discovered in Canada by the grass roots exploration projects of junior mining companies.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Tools for data collection means the methods followed in a particular decision. The methodology for collecting data that I have opted for study is the secondary data. Secondary data refers to that data which are already published or collected.

The study is based on the secondary data from the books, Internet, journals and newsletters. I had used the secondary data for my study, that are reliable and authentic source and some data and information have been collected from the starting top importers.Scanned the related data in magazines and Internet.Visited different websites related to topic.Assembling data at one place.Studied the related useful data and analysed the same.Arranging the data in presentable format.Finally compiling the project report.

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OBJECTIVES

The basic objective this project is to analysis/compare the import of gold and on the basis of which to give certain recommendation for betterment of Indian import of gold.

To study the growth potential of the trade. To understand the problem arising in the trade Estimation of future potential for import and export. Analysis of Past and Present gold import Trade strategy to reduce imports and boost exports. Reporting on where the market opportunity exists for imported gold by specific

market, supply chain, importer & distributor throughout the country.

TOOLS FOR DATA COLLECTION

The sources of secondary data that I have used to carry out my research are:-

Internet Journals Trade Directory Newspaper Books Articles

HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY

H0 : India’s import of gold is increasingH01 : India’s export of gold is increasing

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CHAPTER- ii

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2.Rationale and Significance of study

RATIONALE OF STUDY

Gold loans have a causal impact on gold imports substantiating the emergence of a liquidity motive for holding gold;

International gold prices and exchange rates significantly and positively affect the gold price in India;

Increase in gold price appears to be a main factor in increasing the gold loans outstanding;

Increase in gold loans extended by NBFCs and banks does not impact significantly the gold price in India;

Going by the past trends, a sharp and sudden drop in gold price by 30 to 40 per cent is a remote possibility causing financial distress to the gold loan NBFCs;

The extant loan to value ratio (LTV) ratio should provide a reasonable risk cover in case the gold prices fall by 10 per cent;

NPAs as per cent of total credit exposure and Capital adequacy of gold loan NBFCs are not a cause for concern at present;

Banking sector’s existing exposure in the form of their individual gold loans appears small and may not have any significant repercussions for the stability of the banking sector at present;

Gold loan NBFCs are doing a socially useful function and that provides a strong rationale for careful regulation of the activities of these NBFCs;

The recent slew of regulatory measures taken by the Reserve Bank on the functioning of the gold loan NBFCs may be continued to ensure a healthy growth of the sector in the medium and long term;

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CHAPTER- iii

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3. Literature Review

BOOKS

The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007stock market bulls never read history, as in anything from the day before yesterday, and least of all the pink pages' price/earnings table today. So the library shelves marked "332" under the Dewey Decimal system are typically left free for bears and gold investors to roam. And glancing at how long the stock-bull of 1982-2000 ran, you can see why. Gold lost three-quarters of its purchasing power during that time. Only the grand sweep of history then proved that the glass was either half-empty or full, but shattered...as the much-fabled history-loving "gold bug" believed all along. "Gold has two interesting properties: it is cherished and it is indestructible. It is never cast away and it never diminishes, except by outright loss..."So wrote Professor Roy Jastram in The Golden Constant (John Wiley &

Sons, 1977). Alongside Peter Bernstein's The Power of Gold and H.W.Brands' The Age of Gold –

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/golden_constant_jastram_112020096

Black Economy In India

n 1990-91, According To Various Estimates, The Black Economy Constituted About 35 Per Cent Of The National Economy, Which Was Larger Than Either Its Primary Or Secondary Sectors. Since Then Black Income Generation Has Increased Not Only Through Both Legal (Real Estate Transactions, The Share Market) And Illegal (Hawala, Financial Scams, Gold Smuggling) Activities But Also Via Instances Of Corruption. The New Economic Policies Expected To Counter Its Growth Have Been Unsuccessful In Containing It

http://books.google.co.in/books?id=kc20uAL9soUC&dq=import+of+gold+in+india&source=gbs_navlinks_s

Age of gold

The title might suggest a worthy treatise on the Gold Standard, but not at all. This is a history of the California Gold Rush – triggered by the discovery of gold in the water-race at Sutter's Mill on the Sacramento River in 1848.The history is written in the style of an epic

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film, where groups of pioneers – sometimes whole families and all from very different backgrounds – hear of the astonishing quantities of Gold being picked out of riverbeds in California, and set out west to make their fortunes.  In every case the journey was hard.

Various passages west, overland, by sea via Cape Horn, and via the jungles of Panama, are reconstructed from genuine archive material and evince the daring of the tens of thousands of people who made the trip. Through one of these accounts the infamous "Death Valley"

got its name. The fortunes and failures are intertwined chronologically, from the first breaking news of the money to be made, to the departures, the journey west, the encounters

with native tribes, pirates and profiteers, to the frequently disappointing arrival and – a widespread complaint – the absurd costs of mining equipment once the digging was due to

start.

The writing is in an easy style and is liberally mixed with genuine contemporary diary entries which rather than slowing things down simply take you back to the surprisingly

recent past where these incredibly tough and resourceful people set out on a real adventure to face very real risks. Interested in Gold? Then take this book on holiday perhaps, and give

yourself a break from monetary and economic policy.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/age_gold_rush_california_brandes_history_063020083

Paul Tustain, 30 Jun '08

Gold and the Modern World Economy

Respected international experts such as Michael Bordo, Larry Sjaastad and Ken Clements are brought together in a wonderfully well researched new book on this most important of topics. This comprehensive, well-written book provides all you need to know about Gold and the Modern World Economy.

http://books.google.co.in/books?id=HJt9YX8yi9cC&dq=import+of+gold+in+india&source=gbs_navlinks_s

NEWS

Gold ETFs to face redemption pressure if price keeps fallingAmid liquidation of gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in the global markets due to the on-going fall in Gold Prices, fund houses today said Redemption pressure will certainly rise if the price fall continues. They, however, argued that it would not be the end of the road for gold as an asset class and that the yellow metal is crucial for asset diversification purpose,

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apart from the fact that nothing fundamentally has changed better for the global economy.

Gold prices slip on profit-selling; silver gains

After a three-day gaining streak, gold prices today drifted by Rs. 70 to Rs. 27,050 per ten grams at the bullion market owing to slackened demand at prevailing levels amid a weak global trend.

Silver also declined by Rs 140 to Rs 36,860 per kg on reduced off take by industrial units and coin makers.

Traders said easing demand from jewellers at existing levels and a weak global trend — where gold fell to a two-week low — mainly kept pressure on precious metals prices.

Gold in Singapore, which normally sets price trend on the domestic front, fell by 0.7 per cent to $1,190.18 an ounce, the lowest price since April 1 and silver by 1 per cent to $16.11 an ounce, the lowest since March 20.

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity declined by Rs. 70 each to Rs. 27,050 and Rs. 26,900 per ten grams respectively. It had gained Rs. 370 in the previous three sessions.

Sovereign followed suit and shed Rs. 100 at Rs. 23,600 per piece of eight gram.

Following gold, silver ready traded lower by Rs. 140 to Rs. 36,860 per kg and weekly-based delivery by a similar margin to Rs. 36,560 per kg.

Silver coins also dropped by Rs. 1,000 to Rs. 55,000 for buying and Rs. 56,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

http://www.thehindu.com/business/markets/gold-eases-on-sluggish-demand-global-cues/article7101988.ecePhysical gold market awaits fresh import guidelines

MUMBAI | Wed April 14, 2015 4:37pm IST

(Reuters) - Gold demand in the world's biggest consumer India risks falling for a second

straight year in 2015, as millions of Indian farmers hit by erratic weather and falling

commodity prices trim gold purchases.

Nearly two-thirds of India's gold demand comes from rural areas where jewellery is a

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traditional store of wealth for millions who have no access to the formal banking system.

A downturn in Indian demand could hit global gold prices already struggling to rebound

with a looming hike in U.S. interest rates and slower demand from No.2 consumer China.

"Demand could drop to 700 tonnes. There is a liquidity crunch in rural areas," Prithviraj

Kothari, vice president of India Bullion & Jewellers' Association, told Reuters.

"Instead of buying new jewellery, many farmers are exchanging old ornaments for new."

Farmer Savliram Barkade had planned to buy a few grams of gold for his family during the

Akshaya Tritya festival later this month, considered by many Indians to be an auspicious

day to buy jewellery or property.

But unseasonal rains destroyed his onion crop and forced him instead to pledge his existing

family gold to repay a loan.

"The onion yield halved due to heavy rains. Even the harvested crop fetched lower prices

due to poor quality," said the 65-year-old, a farmer in the Ahmednagar district in

Maharashtra, 250 km (160 miles) east of Mumbai.

In 2014, India's gold demand was 842.7 tonnes, 14 percent down from the previous year, but

still ahead of China.

Earlier this year, the World Gold Council forecast a revival in Indian demand to as much as

900 to 1,000 tonnes in 2015, but optimism has faded as farm incomes from winter-sown

crops have dwindled.

Farmers were betting on winter-sown crops after earnings from summer-sown crops were hit

by late and low rainfall.

At the same time, prices of almost all farm commodities have dropped, a global trend made

worse by India's increasingly uncompetitive farm exports.

"Farmers have little disposable income this year. They are either avoiding buying or making

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smaller purchases," says Ashish Kothari, a jeweller based in Ahmednagar who caters to

farmers.

DULL DEMAND

Government efforts to cut India's current account deficit have also hurt gold demand, with

New Delhi seeking to curb import and consumption of gold.

In one such measure, the government made it mandatory for buyers to provide their

permanent account number (PAN) - which identifies taxpayers - when buying gold

ornaments worth more than 100,000 rupees.

"Sale of gold jewellery mainly from the rural sector is expected to drop because of the new

government policy ... Very few people in rural areas have PAN numbers," said Rahul Gupta,

director, P.P Jewellers.

For larger investors, gold's appeal has been further tarnished by falling inflation and lower

returns in the last two years, compared to equity investments.

"On the investment demand front, the environment is not conducive. Investors are more

interested in the equity market than gold coins and bars," said Daman Prakash Rathod,

director with Chennai-based wholesaler MNC Bullion.

In the 2014/15 financial year that ended on March 31, gold prices fell more than 8 percent -

against a 25 percent rise in India's benchmark BSE Sensex.

Investments in mutual funds rose by a third in the last fiscal year to a record 12 trillion

rupees.

India's June-September monsoon rainfall determines farm output as more than half of

farmland is rainfed. Good rains could lift farmers earning and improve demand.

But farmers such as Barkade say it may be too late, given the debts they have now taken on.

He is paying 12 percent interest to the bank on his gold-backed loan.

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"Even next year I can't buy new jewellery. I have to spend to bring back mortgaged gold,"

says Barkade.

(Additional reporting by Meenakshi Sharma in Mumbai; Editing by Douglas Busvine and

Michael Perry)

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/india-gold-farmers-idINKBN0N00JC20150410

Government hiked import tariff value of gold to $401/10g

NEW DELHI: The government today hiked import tariff value on gold to $401 per 10 grams and on silver to $543 per kg in line with global price trends.The tariff value on imported gold was at $392 per 10 grams and for silver it was at $519 per kg in the first fortnight of this month.

The import tariff value is the base price at which customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing. It is revised on a fortnightly basis taking into account global prices.

The increase in tariff value on imported gold and silver has been notified by the Central Board of Excise and Customs, an official statement said.

Globally, gold and silver prices continue to be volatile. In New York, gold prices ruling firm at $1261 an ounce and silver at around $16 per ounce today.

Last month, India -- the world's largest consumer of gold -- imported gold worth $1.34 billion, less than one-fourth of $5.61 billion in the previous month -- notwithstanding the easing of import curbs for the precious metal.

However, gold imports were still higher on a year-on-year basis by 7.4 per cent from $1.25 billion in December 2013.

A recent report commissioned by Wold Gold Council (WGC) has suggested that India should move beyond import curbs and should come up with a national gold policy to put an estimated 22,000 tonnes of idle gold assets into active use.The report also recommended launch of several investment products, establishment of a Gold Board for managing import-export, develop accredited refineries, drive gold monetisation by incentivising banks and introduce compulsory quality certification of gold.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-01-16/news/58149621_1_import-curbs-10-grams-gold-prices

Budget 2015: Gold bond and deposit schemes may be game changers if guidelines are

attractive

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Our obsession with gold runs deep. It is estimated that Indian households hold about 25,000 tonnes of gold. In comparison, the US treasury holds about 8,000 tonnes of gold and RBI less than 600 tonnes. The approximate value of gold privately held in India is about Rs 50 lakh crore— that is 35% of our GDP and 60% of our bank deposits. The government now wants to tap this hoard and put it to use.

Gold in itself is not a productive asset in a household. It earns no interest or dividend. But its lure as a store of undiminishing value makes it precious. If there is a crisis, you can flee with gold and begin life anywhere in the world. It is not easy to modify the sense of security a saver associates with gold.

Gold is easy to buy, sell and transfer. It is ideal for hiding ill-gotten cash. When a mother takes her gold chain from her neck and places it on her daughter's, the gold has been effectively transferred. No capital gains, no taxes, no registration. Unbanked India depends on gold for liquidity needs, pawning it from time to time. Unless a gold bond or deposit matches this ease, India's gold hoard will be tough to woo. Also, women may not particularly like wearing deposit certificates around their necks and wrists.

Why monetise gold? Idle cash when converted to a bank deposit, multiplies. A bank makes a loan with its deposits, which in turn is the deposit of another bank, which lends the money onward and so on. As long as all depositors do not ask for all the deposits back at the same time, idle cash converted to deposits can enable economic activity that is a multiple of its original value. That is what the government wants to do with gold.

How would a gold deposit scheme or a gold bond work? Investors would deposit gold with the bank and obtain receipts or certificates. The bank would use the gold to make loans. The bank would also be able to pay interest on the gold deposit, depending on the interest it earns on the gold loan. But there are complications in this model.

First, gold carries price risk. When someone makes a gold deposit for say 7 years, he hopes to get back the same amount of gold when it matures. If the price of gold has moved up in that time, the bank runs the risk of having to return something of higher value than deposited. This is more complicated than taking Rs 1,000 as deposit and returning the amount on maturity. Second, gold is also not fungible like cash, which means not everyone who deposits gold is fine with it being melted and sold away, nor is everyone, except jewellers, comfortable borrowing and returning gold. A gold bank will have to do more than mere intermediation on gold, and take risks on its balance sheet. It will have to provide a bridge between gold and cash on an ongoing basis, on both the borrowing and lending side. A bank offering gold deposits or bonds will have to continuously convert gold to cash and back, and do this at a profit. This means capital requirements, hedging costs, and asset-liability mismatches.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-03-09/news/59931983_1_gold-loan-gold-hoard-gold-deposit

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ARTICLES

1.Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances: Evidence from India

Poonam GuptaDelhi School of EconomicsDecember 2005IMF Working Paper No. 05/224

Abstract:      Remittances to India have been growing rapidly since 1991, making it one of the largest recipients of remittances. This paper analyses the determinants of remittances to India and finds that their growth over time can be explained by the increase in migration and total earnings of the migrants. Remittances are also affected by the economic environment insource countries, and appear to be counter cyclical that is, higher during periods of low economic growth in India. None of the remaining economic or political variables considered in the paper, including political uncertainty, interest rates, or exchange rate depreciation, are found to affect remittances significantly. Number of Pages in PDF File: 21

Keywords: Remittances, Balance of payments, India

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=888093

2.The underworld of gold

Professor of Economics R. T. Naylor

Abstract

This paper dissects the global business of gold, from the ground, through the refining and marketing process and on into the hands of the final consumer, while examining the main forms of criminal activity associated with each stage. In one fundamental respect the black market for gold is quite different from that for other contraband goods. With opiates, for example, although there are occasional interrelations, it is reasonable to differentiate between legal and illegal sectors. The legal one uses raw material from designated producing areas, transforming it into a pharmaceutical product to supply a controlled medical demand. The illegal one uses illicitly obtained raw materials to make “recreational” drugs in order to service a demand that in most countries is defined as criminal by its very nature. By contrast, with gold, legally and illegally produced raw materials flow through the same

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channels to the same set of legitimate firms for refining and casting; and the product of these respectable refineries then is redivided into separate streams serving the overt and the covert portions of the market. Even then the cross-links do not stop. Legally sold gold can be diverted into illicit uses, while illegally obtained gold can end up in the hands of otherwise legitimate manufacturers or consumers. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** AW502007 00002

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00144647

3.State Power and the Structure of International Trade

Stephen D. Krasner, University of California

Abstract

The structure of international trade, identified by the degree of openness for the movement of goods, can best be explained by a state-power theory of international political economy. This theory begins with the assumption that the nature of international economic movements is determined by states acting to maximize national goals. Four goals—aggregate national income, political power, social stability, and economic growth—can be systematically related to the degree of openness in the international trading system for states of different relative sizes and levels of development. This analysis leads to the conclusion that openness is most likely to exist when there is a hegemonic distribution of potential economic power. Time-series data on tariff levels, trade proportions, regional concentration, per capita income, national income, share of world trade, and share of world investment are then presented. The first three are used to describe the degree of openness in the trading system; the last four, the distribution of state power. The data suggest that the state-power theory should be amended to take into consideration domestic political constraints on state action.

Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles. He is currently working on a study of raw materials policy.

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract;jsessionid=727F5704A685B97FDD126AF81545A247.journals?fromPage=online&aid=7702560

4.Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International TradePeter K. Schott

Author Affiliations

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Yale School of Management and National Bureau of Economic Research

Abstract

This paper exploits product-level U. S. import data to test trade theory. Although the United States increasingly sources the same products from both high- and low-wage countries, unit values within products vary systematically with exporter relative factor endowments andexporter production techniques. These facts reject factor-proportions specialization across products but are consistent with such specialization within products. The data are inconsistent with new trade theory models predicting an inverse relationship between price and producer productivity. The existence of within-product specialization is an important consideration for understanding the impact of globalization on firms and workers, the evolution of total factor productivity, and the likelihood of long-run income convergence.http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/119/2/647.shor

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CHAPTER- iv

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4. Indian and International Gold Industries

THE TOP TEN GOLD EXPORTER IN THE WORLD IN YEAR 2013-2014 WERE AS FOLLOWS:

U ARAB EMTS 1,17,706.37

BELGIUM 74,374.83

KOREA RP 5,474.56

U S A 241.73

UNSPECIFIED 135.67

SINGAPORE 40.89

BOTSWANA 7.8

U K 5.8

HONG KONG 5.61

GERMANY 0.41

TREND IN GOLD PRICE

International gold prices have risen exponentially in the last decade. Since 2000, the international gold prices have grown at compound annual growth rate of 16.3 per cent. The domestic gold prices have moved in tandem with international gold prices in recent years. Volatility in international gold prices in recent quarters is positively skewed implying that it provides fewer large losses and a greater number of larger gains. One of the major components of gold demand in recent years has been investment demand at the global level. Rising gold prices in recent years did not deter the acquisition of gold in India, implying that investment in gold is becoming price inelastic international gold prices have risen exponentially in the last decade. In fact, the Quandt-Andrews unknown breakpoint test identifies the structural break in international gold prices (in US dollar) to have occurred in

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2000. Since 2000, the international gold prices have grown at compound annual growth rate of 16.3 per cent. One of the major components of gold demand in recent years has been investment demand at the global level. More importantly, volatility in international gold prices in recent quarters is positively skewed implying that it provides fewer large losses and a greater number of 26.Larger gains also confirm that frequency of monthly average gold price, remaining above the previous six months’ average, was high during January 2000 to April 2012. Such behaviour of gold prices assumes importance for building up of positive expectations by gold investors. As regards the underlying factors for explaining international gold prices, studies suggest that the international gold price is a complex phenomenon affected by economic and political environment. While in the short-run, trend in gold prices could be due to inter-commodity substitution on account of movement in their relative prices, in the long run, gold can be used as an instrument to hedge against inflation. History shows that during periods of financial turbulence, gold becomes an attractive asset class for investment. More recently, after the 2008-09 financial crisis, the demand for gold as collateral has also increased as it does not involve credit risk and its price generally exhibits counter-cyclical behaviour. Similarly, transparent pricing of gold as compared to other assets may also be another positive factor for its demand.

IMPORTING COUNTRIES

COUNTRY 2012-13 2013-14

SWITZERLAND 1,39,62,051.58 99,64,262.50

U ARAB EMTS 47,48,531.38 37,96,012.42

SOUTH AFRICA

31,07,263.37 17,01,752.62

U S A 6,71,850.12 15,26,385.82

AUSTRALIA 15,63,117.99 11,52,825.85

HONG KONG 2,78,591.54 4,15,027.34

CHINA P RP 6,43,006.82 4,10,504.18

SINGAPORE 1,30,748.36 3,07,261.06

GERMANY 2,94,435.48 2,37,826.72

JAPAN 1,44,348.85 1,44,515.32

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U K 2,72,601.65 1,27,023.75

TURKEY 73,023.85 1,20,022.91

WORLD TOP TEN PRODUCER

1. BODDINGTON MINE (AUSTRALIA)

This gold mine was reopened in February, 2010. The Boddington Gold Mine produced 741,000 ounces of gold in 2011. It is one of the biggest gold mine in Australia and in the whole world. It also produces millions of pounds of copper. This mine is owned mined by Normandy Mining, Acacia Resources and Newcreast Mining

2. LAGUNAS NORTE (PERU

Lagunas Norte is situated in Northern Peru and is owned by Barrick Gold Corp. It is also the second biggest gold mine in Peru. Lagunas Norte produced 808,000 ounces of gold in 2010 the mining company is currently expanding the project which will boost the production of gold by 2016. It has a proven of 6.6 million ounces of gold.

3. WEST WITS (SOUTH AFRICA)

 The West Wits gold mining operation is currently the deepest mining operation. The Western Wits  consist of three mines the Mponeng, the Savuka shafts and the Tautone Mine which is the world’s deepest mine. In 2011, the Western Wits produced 792,000 ounces of gold from which 244,000 ounces were produced from the Tautona mine. Whole of the Western Wits which consist of three gold mines is owned by AngloGold Ashanti.

4. THE SUPER PIT (AUSTRALIA)

The Super Pit gold mine is the main tourist attraction in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. This mine is the largest open pit gold mine in Australia as you can see in the above picture. It produced 690,000 ounces of gold in 2009.:) This mine is owned by Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines Pty Ltd., a company owned 50% by Barrick Gold Corp. and 50% by Newmont Mining Corporation.

5. VAAL RIVER (SOUTH AFRICA)

It is an underground gold operation owned by AngloGold Ashanti. It consists of several

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undergrounf mines including the Great Noligwa, Kopanang and Moab Khotsong shafts. It produced 831,000 ounces of gold in 2011 the Great Noligwa have a total proven reserve of 1.2 million and Kopanang mine have a proven reserve of 10 million ounces of gold.

6. VELADERO (ARGENTINA)

The Veladero gold mine is the largest open pit gold mine in Argentina. It is also owned by Barrick Gold Corporation. In 2009 Veladero produced 611,000 ounces of gold and it had an output of about 900,000 ounces of gold last year. Veladero gold mine have a proven reserve of more than 12 million ounces of gold.

7. GOLDSTRIKE (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Goldstrike is situated in Nevada, United States of America owned by Barrick Gold Corporation. The Goldstrike consist of three mines the Betze-Post open pit mine, the Meikle and the Rodeo undergroud gold mines. Altogether they had an output of 1,088,000 ounces of gold in 2011. The Goldstrike have a proven reserve of 12.2 million ounces of gold.

8. YANACOCHA (PERU)

The Yancocha gold mine is the biggest gold mine in South America. The Yanacocha consist of five open pit gold mines. It produced 1,293,000 ounces of gold in 2011. It is owned by three companies Newmont Mining Corporation, Buenaventura Group and IFC.

 9. CORTEZ (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)

The Cortez gold mine consists of several open pits and underground mines. It is the second biggest gold mine in the world and the biggest in the North America by means of size and production. It produced 1,421,000 ounces of gold in 2011 it has a proven reserve of 14.5 million ounces of gold. It is also owned by Barrick Gold Corporation. The Cortez gold mine is also one of the oldest gold mines which is still in operation, it is in operation since 1862.

10. GRASBERG MINE (INDONESIA

The Grasberg mine is the biggest gold mine and the third biggest copper mine by means of size and production. It is owned by Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (60%) and Rio Tinto (40%). It produced 1,444,000 ounces of gold in 2011. It is currently giving employment to about 20,000 people.

.

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CONTRACT ACT

INDIAN GOLD CONTRACT

The Gold Control Act was an Indian legislation enacted in 1968. After the Sino-Indian War in 1962, due to loss of foreign exchange reserves, the government of India enacted the Gold Control Rules, 1963, prohibiting the citizens from holding pure gold bars and coins. The old holdings in pure gold had to be compulsorily converted into jewellery and that had to be declared. Only licensed dealers were allowed to deal in pure gold bars and coins. New gold jewellery purchases were either recycled or smuggled gold. This legislation killed the official gold market and a large unofficial market sprung up dealing in cash only. The gold was smuggled in and sold through the unofficial channel wherein, many jewellers and bullion traders traded in smuggled gold. A huge black market developed for gold. Gold Smith was unorganised labour force and could not cope with the new developed situation. Only a few could get the licence to hold the gold, that also in very small quantity, with the result that the members of Khudabadi Sindhi Swarankar community, who were depending only on their traditional occupation of making gold ornaments, lost their business and their financial condition deteriorated and families shattered.

In 1990, India had a major foreign exchange problems and was on verge of default on external liabilities. The Indian Govt. pledged 40 tons gold from their reserves with the Bank of England and saved the day. Subsequently, India embarked upon the path of economic liberalization. The era of licencing was gradually dissolved. The gold market also benefited because the government abolished the 1962 Gold Control Act on 6 June 1990 and liberalized the gold import into India on payment of a duty of Rs.250 per ten grams. The government thought it more prudent to allow free imports and earn the taxes rather than to lose it all to unofficial channel. From official imports of practically nothing in 1991, India officially imported more than 110 tonnes of gold in 1992, which now stands about 800 tonnes in a year. In September 1999, the Govt. of India launched a Gold Deposit Scheme to utilize the idle gold and simultaneously give a return to gold owners and reduce the country's reliance on imports. However, this plan was not widely accepted by the population

GOLD FUTURES CONTRACT

Gold futures contracts are binding commitments to make or take delivery of a specified quantity and purity of gold, on a prescribed date, at an agreed price. Since the futures price will generally change daily, the difference in the prior agreed-upon price and the daily futures price is settled daily also. The exchange squares off the daily loss or profit to the parties. Loss or profit arises from changes in actual prices in comparison to agreed futures prices. These transactions also involve a brokerage cost. This can yield significant trading

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profits, and it can also cause equally significant losses in the event of an adverse movement in the gold price. The key determining factor in futures prices is the market's perception of what the carrying costs ought to be at a given time. These include the interest cost of borrowing gold plus insurance and storage charges. Traders deal in futures contracts on regulated commodity exchanges.

GOLD FOWARD CONTRACT

Forward contracts are similar to futures differing only in the nature of operations and risks. Forwards are agreements to exchange an underlying asset, in this case gold, at an agreed price, at a future date. They can be used to either manage risk or for speculative purposes. Although forward contracts being over-the-counter products offer greater flexibility of a private agreement, they still pose a level of counterparty risk. Futures contracts carry the guarantee of the exchange on which they trade and are therefore risk free. The owner of a futures contract can sell to third parties at any point before maturity, making these instruments more liquid than forward contracts (whose obligations cannot be transferred).

IMPORT POLICY

The government has further liberalised the import policy for gold. This has been done to provide a fillip to the export of gold and jewellery, bring into legal channels the possible illegal financing of gold, and a step to move towards capital account convertibility.

Under the new scheme, the import of gold will be done through three channelizing agencies -- STC, MMTC and HHEC -- and the eight banks already authorised by the Reserve Bank of India. These banks are the State Bank of India, Bank of India, Canara Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Allahabad Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Standard Chartered Bank and ABN-Amro Bank.

Up to now, imports by these eleven agencies are only for exports. With the liberalisation, these agencies will now supply gold and silver for general sales in the domestic market as well. The RBI may nominate other agencies to undertake such imports.The rate of import duty under the new scheme will be Rs 220 per 10 gm for gold. The duty will be payable in terms of rupees. There will not be any value addition norms for exports of gold and silver jewellery that is linked to imports of gold through the new scheme. However, value addition norms will continue to apply where exporters access gold through the existing zero-duty facilities. Payment of duty under the special import licences is presently required to be made from the exchange earners' foreign currency accounts. This requirement is being abolished and payments will now be accepted in rupees. It may be recalled that the three windows were already available for the legal imports of gold, These are imports by non-resident Indians, imports against special import licences, imports by nominated agencies

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and banks authorised by RBI only for zero-duty sales to jewellery exporters, NRIs and the special import licence holders.

RESTRICTIONS

With gold imports putting pressure on the current account deficit (CAD), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today imposed restrictions on import of the yellow metal by banks. "To moderate the demand for gold for domestic use, it has been decided to restrict the import of gold on consignment basis by banks, only to meet the genuine needs of exporters of gold jewellery," the RBI said in a statement. As per a data released today by the government, gold and silver imports during April, 2013 jumped by 138 per cent to USD 7.5 billion against USD 3.1 billion in the year-ago period. Due to high gold imports, the country's trade deficit in April widened to USD 17.8 billion years on year. Higher trade deficit in turn puts pressure on CAD, which has been described as the biggest risk to the Indian economy by the RBI .The CAD, which is difference between the outflow and inflow of foreign currency, touched a record high of 6.7 per cent in the October-December quarter on the back of rising oil and gold imports. The RBI's decision to impose restrictions on gold imports follows recommendations of a Working Group on Gold which had suggested aligning gold import regulations with rest of the imports for creating a level playing field between gold imports and other imports.

Nominated banks and agencies were permitted to import gold on loan basis, suppliers credit/buyers credit basis, consignment basis as also on unfixed price basis .However, bulk of the gold imported is on consignment basis whereby nominated banks do not have to fund these stocks, RBI said. The government has also taken steps like hike in import duty to restrict gold imports. Gold imports into India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, stood at around 830 tonne in 2012-13.

IMPORT DUTY

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All articles consisting wholly or partly of natural or cultured pearls or of precious or semi-precious stones (natural, synthetic or reconstructed), precious metal or of metal clad with precious metal, are to be classified.

GOLD IMPORT SCHEMES

In terms of FED's Master Circular import of Gold by Nominated Banks/Agencies; Gold can be imported in the following ways:

A. Import of Gold on loan basis

(i) By nominated agencies / authorised banks for on lending to exporters of jewellery

(ii) By EOUs and units in SEZ in the gem and jewellery sector for manufacturing and export of jewellery

(iii) The maximum tenor of gold loan would be as per current Foreign Trade Policy (2009-14), which is 270 days at present.

B. Direct Import of Gold

AD Category-I bank can open Letters of Credit and allow remittances on behalf of EOUs, units in SEZs in the gem and jewellery sector and the nominated agencies / banks for direct import of gold.

C. Import of Gold on Consignment basis

Gold may be imported by the nominated banks/agencies on consignment basis wherein the ownership of the goods will rest with the supplier and the importer (consignee) will be acting as an agent of the supplier (consignor). Remittances towards the cost of import shall be made as and when sales take place as per the provisions of agreement entered into between the overseas supplier (consignor) and nominated agency/bank (consignee).

D. Import of gold on unfixed price basis

The nominated agency/authorised bank may import gold on outright purchase basis subject to the condition that although ownership of the gold shall be passed on to the importer at the time of import itself, the price of gold shall be fixed later/ as and when the importer sells the gold to the users (11 days as per the FCRA, 1952 / cf.DBOD.IBS.669/23.67.001/2002-03 dated October 7, 2002).

FISCAL MEASURES

Currently, there is a system of imposing import duty on ad valorem basis on gold imports.

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Recognising the implications of high imports of gold, the Government undertook certain fiscal measures in recent months to curb demand for gold. Despite the measure, gold imports in of 2012-13 were higher .Growth in import of gold, however, was negative in

April 2013 probably reflecting the impact of gold jewellers’ strike. This move was intended to address the issue of reducing dollar outflows due to gold imports, which are hurting the current account. However, looking at the pattern of gold consumption in India and quantum of gold imports, raising the import duties did not seem to have had the desired impact on bringing down gold demand. If considered necessary and appropriate, further hike in the import duties may have to be contemplated to dissuade gold imports. But, due to the limitation of the fiscal route to curb the demand for gold imports, beyond a threshold, we cannot raise the import duty as it may lead to buyers taking recourse to purchases from unauthorised sources of supply. There are restrictions on carrying of gold and gold jewellery by incoming Indian community from abroad. If need be, this may also have to be reviewed to ensure that bringing gold into the country less attractive option. One major reason for investors to go after gold acquisition is that there are no significant hassles with reference to documenting the buying and selling transactions in gold leaving a paper trail to track the sales and purchases of gold and its ownership. No one really knows how much gold the other individual possess. Similarly, there is no need for paying any capital gains tax on the deals and no irritants like tax deducted at source for the sales and purchases of gold. Though the current rules stipulate that PAN card number has to be given beyond a limit for ornament 39 purchases, many jewellery shops flout that norm. There is a strong need for plugging these loopholes to increase transparency in gold deals .There is a need to design innovative financial instruments that can provide real returns. The real attraction for gold is clear and simple. High returns, high liquidity and no tax and documentation related hassles. If interest earned on various financial savings instruments is attractive and positive, a part of the demand for gold will be automatically diverted to the financial instruments. Demand for gold will come down commensurately with the availability of alternative instruments for investment with real rates of return. The fact that major portion of individuals’ savings are channelling into physical assets, such as, gold and real estate indicates that there is vast scope for the banking system to take advantage of these opportunities. Growing demand for gold in the country especially in the rural side is an indication that households with high levels of savings are in need of instruments that are very easily accessible and equally attractive to gold in terms of return as well as liquidity. Banking sector should come forward to tap this huge untapped source of funds from being diverted to buy gold. It is necessary to introduce savings schemes and instruments that can provide real returns with high liquidity. However, the Group concedes that provision of real rates of return on savings presupposes prevalence of a low-inflation environment on a sustained basis. The schemes to be conceived should also ensure liquidity of the savings

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comparable to gold or gold jewellery. The dominant reason why a person may like to hold his savings in the form of gold is to hedge against inflation. Therefore, offering a real rate of interest considering the high inflation rate prevailing as an incentive on a financial instrument would better address the issue of excessive clamor for gold imports. Therefore, it is considered desirable that products analogous to Inflation Indexed Bonds may be considered as alternatives.

SPIKE IN GOLD IMPORT

The volume of gold imports by India surged despite sharp increase in gold prices. Some possible explanations for the steep increase in demand for gold were considered by the Working group .The Group’s discussions with the gold market experts revealed that when the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, the investors were standing at the margin and disinclined to invest in various assets including gold for some quarters in 2008 and 2009 as there was gloom and uncertainty from the crisis related developments. This has led to postponing of the demand for gold investment by investors as they cling on to bank deposits another reason for the increasing imports of gold by India was the sustained increase in gold prices in India. The gold prices have increased markedly over the period April 2008 to March 2013. Investors have reaped the benefit of attractive returns as the gold prices were increasing, that led to further investment in gold, giving impetus to further rise in gold prices. Rising prices of gold and imports of gold mutually reinforced each other. Investors seized the opportunity of investing in gold at temporary falls in gold prices.

Further, it is interesting to take note of the trends in currency with public as ratio to demand deposits (CP-DD) observed since 2008-09. CP-DD ratio, which showed declining trend from 1.4 per cent in 2003-04 to 1.1 per cent in 2007-08, began to increase in 2008-09 and reached 1.5 per cent in 2011-12. It implies that public’s preference for cash holding increased significantly during these years. Furthermore, average growth in currency with public was 18.0 per during 2008-09 to 2010-11, significantly higher than 15.4 per cent during 2005-06 to 2007-08. High CP-DD ratio in recent years might be partly reflecting increase in high value cash transactions and a part of that perhaps took place for gold purchases in recent years. Gold deals in the grey market are said to be cash-based. The possibility of large informal transactions involving huge money in recent years flowing into gold cannot be ruled out, though; this cannot be verified and authenticated by the Working Group.

FLUCTUTATIONS

There has been a sharp increase in India’s gold imports in the recent past, which has raised concerns about its implications for trade deficit. As per DGCI&S data, the imports of gold

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increased from US$ 40.5 billion during 2010-11 to about US$ 56.2 billion during 2011-12. The rise in India’s import of gold has been on account of both price and quantum factors. International gold prices on average rose by 27.2 per cent in US dollar terms (34.0 per cent in INR terms) during 2011-12 as compared with 26.4 per cent in US dollar terms (21.6 per cent in INR terms) cent during 2010-11. As far as quantum of gold import is concerned, it is estimated to have increased by 9.2 per cent in 2011-12 (12.0 per cent in 2010-11). As shown in Chart 3.8, volume of gold import has surged in recent years despite sharp increase in gold prices. It implies that gold imports of India are relatively price inelastic. Uptrend in gold imports is particularly evident during the post-global financial crisis period. Growth in demand for gold in India (39 per cent) has also remained higher than that at global level (24 per cent) in previous three years. Similarly, increasing preference for gold is reflected in a steep rise in gold import–GDP ratio in the past few years. Since 2009-10, gold import-GDP ratio has remained significantly above the trend. It needs to be noted that India exports a certain portion of its gold imports in the form of re-exports of gold jewelry, etc. However, gold re-exports as a percentage of total gold imports has declined from around 41 per cent to 29 per cent, which may be a concern for India's trade balance. This implies that a higher percentage of imported gold is now domestically used, deploying foreign exchange that could have been earned with gold re-exports. Furthermore, the import content in the form of raw material of gold in total gems and jewelry exports is estimated to be 16 per cent (an average of 2005-06 to 2009-10). This underscores that a large portion of gold imports is not used for creating exports. Increasing domestic consumption of gold import is clearly a concern for external sector sustainability.

BILETRAL TRADE AGREMENT

India-Africa Trade

The bilateral relations between the Republic of India and the Republic of South Africa have grown strong since the end of apartheid in South Africa in 1994. Both nations have since developed close strategic, cultural and economic ties. India and South Africa also share an extensive energy partnership. In 2010, India imported 1.4 million tonnes of South African coal in February, making it the largest purchaser of coal from the country.[1] Ties with further solidified with South Africa's 2011 acceptance into the BRICS group.

India-Australia Trade

About the Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement negotiations recent years have seen remarkable growth in the trading relationship between India and Australia, fuelled by the many complementarities between the two economies. Two-way trade has grown in

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered formvalue from $3.3 billion in 2000 to over $20 billion in 2011.India is the world's largest democracy and is a market of 1.2 billion people. Its youthful population diversified economy and growth trajectory present significant opportunity for Australian business, especially in the agriculture, energy, manufacturing, mining and services sectors.

On 12 May 2011 Trade Minister Craig Emerson and Indian Minister for Commerce and Industry Anand Sharma formally launched negotiations to conclude a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement between Australia and India. Prime Minister Singh and Prime Minister Gillard reaffirmed the importance of achieving a high quality agreement during Prime Minister Gillard's 15-17 October visit to India. Australia will be seeking a comprehensive and truly liberalising agreement, consistent with the government’s trade policy. Similar to the elements covered in Australia’s existing bilateral Free Trade Agreements, a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement would include coverage of investment and trade in goods and services. The Department is seeking public submissions on the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement negotiations.

Key interests and benefits

A comprehensive agreement would assist in broadening the base of merchandise trade by addressing tariff barriers and behind the border restrictions on trade in goods.

There is significant potential to expand trade in services between India and Australia. An FTA could facilitate growth in services trade by reducing barriers faced by Australian service suppliers and by increasing regulatory transparency.

An FTA could facilitate and encourage investment by reducing barriers, increasing transparency and enhancing investment protections.

India-EU Trade

India has embarked on a process of economic reform and progressive integration with the global economy that aims to put it on a path of rapid and sustained growth. However, India's trade regime and regulatory environment remains comparatively restrictive. India still maintains substantial tariff and non-tariff barriers that hinder trade with the EU. In addition to tariff barriers to imports, India also imposes a number of non-tariff barriers in the form of quantitative restrictions, import licensing, mandatory testing and certification for a large number of products, as well as complicated and lengthy customs procedures.

With its combination of rapid growth, complementary trade baskets and relatively high market protection, India is an obvious partner for a free trade agreement (FTA) for the EU.

The parameters for an ambitious FTA were set out in the report of the EU-India High Level Trade Group in October 2006, which was tasked with assessing the viability of an FTA between the EU and India. Other studies have reinforced the economic potential of an FTA between the EU and India, notably a sustainability impact assessment was carried out by the EU.

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered formNegotiations for a comprehensive FTA were started in June 2007 and are on-going. This would be one of the most significant trade agreements, touching the lives of 1.7 billion people.

India enjoys trade preferences with the EU under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences. To assist India in its efforts to better integrate into the world economy – with a view to further enhancing bilateral trade and investment ties – the EU is providing trade related technical assistance to India. This is part of the EU's assistance programmes with India

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CHAPTER- v

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5. Data Collection and Analysis

ANALYSIS OF DATA

TABLE 1

Sr.No.

Year(APRL-DEC)

TOTAL IMPORT OF INDIA

1 2013-14 197792530.9

2 2012-13 234546324.5

3 2011-12 168346695.6

4 2010-11 136373554.8

5 2009-10 137443555.5

6 2008-09 101231169.9

7 2007-08 84050631.33

8 2006-07 66040890.33

9 2005-06 50106454.03

10 2004-05 35910766.37

11 2003-04 29720587.4

Source: Department of commerce

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form GRAPH 1

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

Total Import Of India

Total Import Of India

TABLE 2

Sr.No.Year(APRL-DEC) IMPORT OF GOLD

12013-14

20652698.73

22012-13

26990070.54

32011-12

18472875.26

42010-11

13588318.68

52009-10

9532386.41

62008-09

6735920.25

72007-08

6543987.19

82006-07

4795242.86

92005-06

4734758.07

102004-05

2994624

112003-04

1860774.47Source: Department of commerce

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GRAPH 2

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

IMPORT OF GOLD

IMPORT OF GOLD

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TABLE 3

Sr.No. Year

NON-MONETARY POWDER OF GOLD

OTHER UNWROUGHT FORMS

OTHER SEMI-MANUFACTURED FORMS

MONETARY GOLD

1 2013-14 448.08 187,13,186.37 19,39,064.21 0.07

2 2012-13 258,23,181.54 11,66,889.00

3 2011-12 0.99 174,43,332.07 10,29,542.19

4 2010-11 528.1 135,11,407.69 76,382.89

5 2009-10 6.28 78,88,115.59 16,44,264.53

6 2008-09 2,878.43 42,87,095.44 24,45,946.38

7 2007-08 37.33 38,05,078.66 27,38,871.19

8 2006-07 193.93 21,06,224.72 26,88,824.20

9 2005-06 31,57,620.54 15,77,137.54

10 2004-05 9.22 21,43,811.88 8,50,802.91

11 2003-04 9.04 16,97,353.28 1,63,412.16

Source: Department of commerce

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India’s Import of Gold (included gold plated with platinum) unwrought or semi-manufactured forms/in powdered form GRAPH 3

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-040

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

NON-MONETARY POWDER OF GOLD

OTHER UNWROUGHT FORMS

OTHER SEMI-MANUFACTURED FORMS

MONETARY GOLD

TABLE 4

SR.NO YEARTOTAL EXPORT OF INDIA

1 2013-14 1178,47,507.35

2 2012-13 1465,95,939.96

3 2011-12 1142,92,192.18

4 2010-11 845,53,364.38

5 2009-10 840,75,505.87

6 2008-09 655,86,352.18

7 2007-08 571,77,928.52

8 2006-07 456,41,786.15

9 2005-06 375,33,952.62

10 2004-05 293,36,674.75

11 2003-04 255,13,727.66

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Source: Department of commerce

GRAPH 4

2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-110.00

20,000,000.00

40,000,000.00

60,000,000.00

80,000,000.00

100,000,000.00

120,000,000.00

140,000,000.00

160,000,000.00

TOTAL EXPORT OF INDIASeries2Series3

TABLE 5

SR.NO YEAR EXPORT OF GOLD

1 2013-14 18,67,484.85

2 2012-13 1,97,993.67

3 2011-12 42,755.43

4 2010-11 98,272.12

5 2009-10 12,893.29

6 2008-09 1,876.15

7 2007-08 454.5

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8 2006-07 132.36

9 2005-06 35.77

10 2004-05 4.47

11 2003-04 2.57

Source: Department of commerce

GRAPH 5

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

0.00

200,000.00

400,000.00

600,000.00

800,000.00

1,000,000.00

1,200,000.00

1,400,000.00

1,600,000.00

1,800,000.00

2,000,000.00

EXPORT OF GOLD

EXPORT OF GOLD

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TABLE 6

Sr.No COUNTRY

VALUES IN RS (LACS)2012-13(APRL-DEC)

VALUES IN RS (LACS)2012-13(APRL-DEC)

1SWITZERLAND

139,62,051.58 99,64,262.50

2 U ARAB EMTS 47,48,531.38 37,96,012.42

3SOUTH AFRICA

31,07,263.37 17,01,752.62

4 U S A 6,71,850.12 15,26,385.82

5 AUSTRALIA 15,63,117.99 11,52,825.85

6 HONG KONG 2,78,591.54 4,15,027.34

7 CHINA P RP 6,43,006.82 4,10,504.18

8 SINGAPORE 1,30,748.36 3,07,261.06

9 GERMANY 2,94,435.48 2,37,826.72

10 JAPAN 1,44,348.85 1,44,515.32

11 U K 2,72,601.65 1,27,023.75

Source: Department of commerce

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GRAPH 6

SWITZ

ERLA

ND

U ARAB EMTS

SOUTH

AFRICA

U S A

AUSTRALIA

HONG KONG

CHINA P RP

SINGAPORE

GERMANY

JAPAN U K

0.00

2,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

8,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

12,000,000.00

14,000,000.00

16,000,000.00

VALUES IN RS (LACS)2012-13(APRL-DEC)

VALUES IN RS (LACS)2012-13(APRL-DEC)2

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CHAPTER- vi

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6. Findings

FINDINGS

Another factor that is working in favour of the precious metal is the persistent weakness in the Indian currency. Gold, which was quoting at $1,621 per ounce on August 1, 2011, was priced at $1,571 per ounce on June 8, a loss of 3%. But, if you look at the rupee price of gold during this period, the price has moved from Rs 23,150 to Rs 29,680 per 10 gram, a gain of 28%.

This gain is explained by the 26.19% fall in the rupee against the dollar in the same period. The rupee fell from Rs 44.07 per USD to Rs 55.62. The surge in gold prices in rupee term is an outcome of the rupee's depreciation than any increase in demand for the yellow metal. "If gold prices remain firm, demand for gold from India should go down. At the same time, strong gold prices should increase the supply of scrap gold, thereby influencing gold prices downwards," points out Devendra Nevgi, founder & partner, Delta Global Partners.

In FY2011-2012, India imported gold worth $56 billion. Since India's current account deficit for the year was estimated at $74 billion, the government may introduce tax for gold imports to contain the deficit. While this should drive prices up in the short term, in the medium term, the demand for gold would come down.

Quantitative easing by developed nations typically increases risk appetite of global investors. Carry trade — where investors borrow at a low interest rate in one country and invest for a higher rate of return in another —picks up. Given the attractive equity valuations, the Indian markets may see inflow of funds.

This will increase the demand for the rupee against the US dollar. A strong rupee may curb the rupee prices when compared with the dollar prices. Quantitative easing, thus, will have a balancing effect on gold prices — while on the one hand it may push up the dollar prices of the precious metal, on the other, it may reduce the rupee prices as rupee strengthens.

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CHAPTER- vii

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7. Conclusion

CONCLUSION/ABSTRACT OF THE STUDY

The following research on the basis of set hypothesis shows the alternate hypothesis hold true ie HI : export of gold is increasing , although import of gold is also increasing but the import in 2012-13 shows a fall in imports.

Thus, the focus on exports should be maintained, continuous efforts should made to increase exports and more and more import substitution.

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CHAPTER- viii

8. References

REFRENCES

Dictionary Of International Trade: Handbook Of The Global Trade Community Includes 21 Key Appendices

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Edward G. Hinkelman, Sibylla Putzihttp://books.google.co.in/books?id=vylCkqTg7H0C&dq=international+trade+on+gold&source=gbs_navlinks_s

International Trade & Financial EnvironmentM.K. Bhathttp://books.google.co.in/books?id=BVP3IDXXdy8C&dq=international+trade+on+gold&source=gbs_navlinks_s

Developments of International Trade TheoryTakashi Negishihttp://books.google.co.in/books?id=3I_OhLmrToMC&dq=international+trade+on+gold&source=gbs_navlinks_s

Clive M. Schmitthoff's Select Essays on International Trade LawClive Maximilian Schmitthoff http://books.google.co.in/books?

id=ieD5nT0ndHcC&dq=international +trade+on+gold&source=gbs_navlinks_s

international trade statisticsTaylor & Francis, 1933http://books.google.co.in/books?id=z5w9AAAAIAAJ&dq=international+trade+on+gold&source=gbs_navlinks_s

International TradeRaj Agrawalhttp://books.google.co.in/books?id=ATm_pyA4uVYC&dq=international+trade+on+gold&source=gbs_navlinks_s

Global Financial ManagementJoseph Anbarasuhttp://books.google.co.in/books?id=dA3A-42ZqzMC&dq=international+trade+on+gold&source=gbs_navlinks_s

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CHAPTER- ix

9. Bibliography

BIBLIOGRAPHY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold

http://www.mcxindia.com/sitepages/contractspecification.aspx?productcode=gold

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http://www.thehindu.com/business/markets/gold-eases-on-sluggish-demand-global-cues/article7101988.ecePhysical gold market awaits fresh import guidelines

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/india-gold-farmers- idINKBN0N00JC20150410

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-01-16/news/58149621_1_import-curbs-10-grams-gold-prices

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-03-09/news/ 59931983_1_gold-loan-gold-hoard-gold-deposit

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-03-09/news/59931983_1_gold-loan-gold-hoard-gold-deposit

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