MOVING HOME AGAIN? NEVER! Challenges and opportunities Formula for growth In the context of globalisation, innovation is a must for all regions, whether rural or not. (Angel Gurria, Secretary General, OECD) Investing in research and development as well as innovation, in education and in resource efficient technologies will benefit traditional sectors, rural areas as well as high skill, service economies. It will reinforce economic, social and territorial cohesion. (Europe 2020) The demographic challenge implies high demands on innovation and renewal. Thus, this is essential in order to be able to supply public services with high efficiency and high quality. (The national innovation strategy) WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE? 86 % loose their youth population! MunicipalityChangeMunicipalityChangeMunicipalityChange Stockholm7 279Kalmar224Huddinge26 Gteborg4 950Gvle216Upplands Vsby17 Malm2 885Bors207Upplands-Bro14 Uppsala1 879Vsters207Sundsvall13 Lund1 415Lule197Hllefors6 Ume1 083Skvde156Grums4 Linkping1 081stersund133 Solna1 002Haninge126 rebro554Eskilstuna91 Sundbyberg506Sigtuna90 Karlstad472Trollhttan71 Vxj410Botkyrka70 Jnkping399Jrflla68 Helsingborg394Borlnge66 Norrkping286Landskrona58 Halmstad264Karlskrona48 Sdertlje238Kristianstad30 Municipalities with a surplus Municipality Type (Board of agri.) Population 1993 Population 2012 Change (%) BRP per capita (%) Hylte Rural ,3837,89 Halmstad Urban ,55111,44 Laholm Rural ,9934,19 Falkenberg Rural ,25121,52 Varberg Rural ,2576,91 Kungsbacka Urban ,3795,24 Region ,9388,30 And this affects. Entrepeneurship Productivity Start-ups Growth Service Innovations Integration Why? Once upon a time we had an agricultural society.. and then we had a structural change Urban population Source:UN What attracts? Critical population size: Economies of scale Collective resources Accessibility Job-shopping Spillover effects Relax, we just wait for the broadband Thomas Friedman The world is flat Well.. Can we say that youngsters are more valuable? has turned into a tower The population pyramid Well, we have in-migration of 65+. .and they have plenty of capital! When do we move? -Is there a trade deadline? NEW STRATEGIES.. Who goes against the flow? Who graduated in Sweden 2001? Where do they live 1996? Where do they live 2001? Where do they live 2006? Where do they live 2010? men & women Between 2001 and 2011: with foreign background Have they moved to Halland? MunicipalityType SUM HylteLandsbygd HalmstadStadsomrden LaholmLandsbygd FalkenbergLandsbygd81624 VarbergLandsbygd KungsbackaStorstadsomrden RuralShare? % 2006 Move home % Rural1 1619% Peri-urban rural2552% Urban % 2011 Move home % Rural % Peri-urban rural2802% Urban % So, the likelihood to get someone to move back home is much larger than to get someone from somewhere else! But who moves back home..and who does not? Individual variables: - gender - educational length - exam year/age - foreign background - civil status - occupation - commuter Regional variables: - educational level at labour market - average wage - university city - tax level - nature (recreartion, lakes, ocean) On an individual level, the probability to come back decreases if: - longer education - single - foreign background Individuals with kids five years after graduation are most likely to come back home.. but after 10 years, the effect is gone! And these move back home even though the likelihood increases for: - not having a creative job - weaker labour market for academics (lower wages and few highly educated) - higher taxes - fewer areas of recreation So, make sure to follow those leaving you. If they are early parents, you are probably their first choice. So facilitate their return! Beyond this.. -Smart shrinking (and growth!) -Search for cooperations in a wider context -Create new arenas for cooperation @LinaBjerke Thanx!