Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel

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    Chnh sch pht trin

    Bi ging11

    M hnh Lewis

    James Riedel

    Trc nghim:

    Cu hi: Ai l Ngi W. Arthur Lewis?

    a. Mt ch b ngho t hn o nh Caribe

    b. Thn ng nh tui (cu b thng minh nht lng)

    c. Gio s i hc Princeton v Ch tch i hc West Indies

    d. Nh tin phong v kinh t hc pht trin v ot gii Nobel(1979)

    e. Tt c trn

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    Sir Arthur Lewis(1915-1991)

    Sinh St, Lucia, thuc a caAnh cho n 1958.

    c hc bng ca Trng Kinh tLondon nm 1932 (17 tui). Lmxong tin s nm 1938 (23 tui).

    Dy ti i hc Manchester vPrinceton, l c vn UN ti Ghana,Ph ch tch i hc West Indies

    Lewis cphong hm hip s1963 v trao gii Nobel kinht nm1979

    Trc nghim: ng hay sai trong m hnh Lewis1. u tvn l c my cng nghip ha v tng trng.

    2. Khu vc nng nghip l ngun tng trngca khu vc cng nghip.

    3. Cng nghip ha l c ch chnh nng cao nng sutnng nghip.

    4. Cng nghip ha v nng sutlao nggia tng din ra ring bit, do chnh sch pht trin tt nht l khng c chnh sch.

    5. M hnh Lewis khng ph hp cho mi quc gia ang pht trinnhngc v c tc dng ng .

    6. Trung Quc vt qua im ngoc Lewis.

    7. M hnh Lewis l tng c khng cn ph hp cho Vit Nam. thay vo Vit Nam cn mt m hnh tng trngmi.

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    Lao ngd thaMPL=0

    Tht nghiptr hnh

    W> MPL>0W=MPL

    Lng t chc

    Sn lngnng nghip

    Lao ngnng nghip

    Giai

    on2Giai

    on1

    Giai

    on3

    L1L2L3

    Khu vc kinh t truyn thng

    Ni tt c bt u: khu vc truyn thng

    Hm sn xut nng nghip:QA= f (LA, T) T = t ai

    Lng c t chc l g?

    Lng t chc c gim xungmc sng?

    Gi nh v lao ngd tha(MPL = 0) trong nng nghip cthc t khng?

    im ngoc Lewis u?

    Tin lng nng nghip s thno khi lao ngd thachuyn sang khu vc cngnghip hin i?

    Chuyn dch t nn kinh t kp

    (c in/tn c in)

    Lao ngc rt ra khi nngnghip, to ra thng d sn lngnng nghip.

    Khu vc cng nghip hin i ngtrc cung lao nghon tonkhng co dn ti mc lng tchc cng phn chnh lch

    Li nhun cng nghip c ti

    u tto ra cu lao ngtngthm, ly t khu vc nng nghip.

    im ngoc u tin, thng dbt u gim i v W INDtng ln,lm chm qu trnh chuyn tip.

    im ngoc Lewis xut hin khi w =MPL trong c hai khu vc (honton tn c in).

    LIND

    LAG

    LIND

    LS

    LD LDLD

    IndustrialWage

    Average

    Agricultural

    Surplus

    Agricultural

    Output

    Phase

    one

    Phase

    two

    Phase

    three

    L1 L2L3

    )1( wwIND

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    Hm chnh sch:

    1. Ti im ngoc, thng d bt u gim, gi lng thc bt u tng v lngcng nghip phi tng thu ht lao ngvo cng nghip. Kt qu l li nhungim, u tgim v s chuyn tip chm li. S chm li c th c khc

    phc bng u tlm tng nng suttrong nng nghip.

    2. nhiu nc, cc chnh ph nh thu mnh vo nng nghip v to ra nhngtr ngi i vi s chuyn dch lao ng. Nhng bin php ny ko di v/hocngn chn s chuyn tip. Vic b i nhng chnh sch lm cho nng nghipkhng hiu qu v cn tr s chuyn dch lao ngs gip y nhanh schuyn tip.

    3. Tng trngcu lao ngtrong khu vc cng nghip s ph thuc nhiu vochnh sch cng nghip. Nu chnh ph trc tip tr cp v u tin i x chocc nhnh cng nghip thm dng vn tng i (thng l DNNN) th schuyn tip s chm v c th chch hng trc khi hon tt.

    4. M ca nn kinh t v cho php chuyn mn ha trong sn xut cng nghipthm dng lao ngs to ra cu lao ngcao hn, li nhun cao hn, t l utcao hn v tc hp th lao ngd tha nhanh hn.

    p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung QucTrong nhiu thp nin trc 1978, 80-90% dn s sng khu vc nng nghip,thu nhp bnh qun u ngich chm mc sng, nhng s tho g(breakout) Lewis khng xy ra. Ti sao?

    Trc 1978, tho g khng xy ra v: HTX ha nng nghip trit tiu ng c sn xut v nng suttrong

    nng nghip thp. Gi nng sn (c bit l go) c kim sot v phn thng d t i

    c to ra u u tvo cng nghip nng, do cu lao nglthp.

    H thng h khu ngn chn lao ngdi c khi nng nghip sang khuvc cng nghip

    Sau 1978, S tho g Lewis xy ra v: Nng nghip c gii phng khi HTX v kinh t h c khi phc, to

    ng c sn xut v lm tng mnh nng sutnng nghip. Gi nng nghip c th ni, lm tng ng k ng c sn xut. Nhng rng buc h khu c ni lng, cho php lao ngnng nghip

    di c i tm vic lm tt hn trong cng nghip. Cc tnh c khuyn khch pht trin cng nghip (TVE) khu vc nng

    thn.

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    Tc tng trngsn lngnng nghip bnh qun hng nm tng t2.9% (1952-78) ln 7.6% (1978-85). S gia tng tc tng trngsnlngnng nghip dn n thu nhp thc bnh qun u ngitngtrong khu vc nng thn khong 15% p.a. t 1978-85, phn ln ctit kim trong cc hp tc x tn dng v ngn hng hoc u tvodoanh nghip nng thn (X nghip Hng Trn)

    p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung Quc

    Riedel, Gao and Jin, 2007

    p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung QucNng nghip, vn l phn ln ca nn kinh t nh, tr thnh phn nh ca nnkinh t ln v t trng vic lm nng nghip gim t 80% xung khong 50% chtrong hai thp nin.

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    Agriculture Non-agriculture

    Period

    1978-05

    Growth Rate

    (%)

    Contribution

    (%)

    Growth rate

    (%)

    Contribution

    (%)

    Labor 0.8 21 5.0 49

    Capital 8.0 87 10.0 49Land -0.3 -23 -- --

    Total 0.7 100 6.9 100

    p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung Quc

    Mt nghin cu gn y (Ercolani and Wei, 2010), c lng hm snxut cho khu vc nng nghip v phi nng nghip xc nh ngun tngtrngmi ni. H thy rng tng trngca Trung Quc ch yu nhcng nghip ha, vi ng lc chia u cho tch ly vn v di c lao ng t nng nghip, y l tin trnh rt ging nhng g m hnh Lewis hnhdung.

    Surplus

    Labor

    MPL=0

    Disguised

    Unempl.

    W> MPL>0

    W=MPL

    Institutional wage

    Agricultural Output

    Agriculture

    labor

    Phase

    twoPhase

    one

    Phase

    three

    L1L2L3

    The Traditional SectorGiai on 1, MPL=0. Khi L gimt L1xung L2,APL tng nhngMPL khng i.

    Giai on 2, MPL bt u tngvi APL, nhng MPL < APL (0),lng t chc.

    Giai on 3, tin lng = MPL,tng theo s gim st lao ngnng nghip.

    Nu khi lao ngnng nghipgim, MPL khng i, chng ta giai on 1. Nu MPL tng,nhng thp hn APL (0), ta G 2. Nu MPL tng v ln hnAPL (0) ta G 3.

    Kim nh m hnh Lewis Trung Quc

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    Kim nh m hnh Lewis Trung Quc

    T gia 1960s n 1978, MPL l khng i (G 1). Sau 1978, MPL btu tng, nhng vn nm di mc lng c t chc (APL(0)), do

    Trung Quc v vn G 2, vn cha t c im ngoc Lewis.

    Kim nh m hnh Lewis Trung Quc

    Mt nghin cu IMF gn y (Das and NDiaye, 2013) lp lunrng Trung Quc ang thi im chuyn dch dn s gip ync ny vt qua im ngoc Lewis trong khong thi gian gia2020 v 2025 v s c nh hng ln n nn kinh t th gii.

    Lao ng d tha, triu ngi

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    Chuyn tip sang kinh t th trngvi lao ngd tha

    Nga v ng u, ngnh cng nghip nng s hu nh nc trc y b gii th gii phng ngun lc cho vic xy dng ngnh cng

    nghip nh hng tiu dng hn. Nhng khng xy ra Trung Quc. Btu bng nn kinh t d tha lao ng, Trung Quc khng phi chuynngui lc t SOE xy dng ngnh nh hng xut khu mi. H c thc c haiduy tr ngnh c v xy dng ngnh mi cng lc.

    Riedel. Gao and Jin, 2007

    Vai tr ca nng nghip trong nn kinh t

    Nng thn c n 70%dn s

    Nng nghip s dng48% lc lng laong

    Nhng nng nghipch chim 22% GDP

    GDP bqdn. nngthn l 1/9 so vithnh th

    GDP/lao ngtrongnng nghip l 1/4trong cng nghip

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    Lm th no tng nng sutnng nghip

    Hai cch

    Hai

    a lao ngd tha trong nngnghip sang cng nghip

    Thc y cng nghip ha nh hngxut khu, thm dng lao ng:

    To sn chi bnh ng gia doanhnghip nh ncv t nhn

    T do ha h thng ti chnh thcy phn b vn hiu qu

    Duy tr s n nh kinh t v m vtrnh bong bng gi ti sn ht vnkhi u tnng nghip v cngnghip

    Mtp dng bin php tng hiu qu snxut nng nghip

    Ci thin tp qun nng nghip?

    Ci thin u vo (ging, phn bn)?

    C gii ha?

    Ci thin c s h tng(thy li,

    giao thng...)?

    Ci thin ng c (gi u vo vsn lng)?

    Ci thin tip cn tn dng?

    M hnh Lewis v nguyn l li th so snh ng n l nhng tngc, m nhiu nh bnh lun cho rng khng mang li hy vng cho VitNam. Thay vo ngi ta cho rng Vit Nam cn mt m hnh tngtrngmi.

    Bn ngh sao?

    Old School