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7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
1/9
4/16/20
Chnh sch pht trin
Bi ging11
M hnh Lewis
James Riedel
Trc nghim:
Cu hi: Ai l Ngi W. Arthur Lewis?
a. Mt ch b ngho t hn o nh Caribe
b. Thn ng nh tui (cu b thng minh nht lng)
c. Gio s i hc Princeton v Ch tch i hc West Indies
d. Nh tin phong v kinh t hc pht trin v ot gii Nobel(1979)
e. Tt c trn
7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
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Sir Arthur Lewis(1915-1991)
Sinh St, Lucia, thuc a caAnh cho n 1958.
c hc bng ca Trng Kinh tLondon nm 1932 (17 tui). Lmxong tin s nm 1938 (23 tui).
Dy ti i hc Manchester vPrinceton, l c vn UN ti Ghana,Ph ch tch i hc West Indies
Lewis cphong hm hip s1963 v trao gii Nobel kinht nm1979
Trc nghim: ng hay sai trong m hnh Lewis1. u tvn l c my cng nghip ha v tng trng.
2. Khu vc nng nghip l ngun tng trngca khu vc cng nghip.
3. Cng nghip ha l c ch chnh nng cao nng sutnng nghip.
4. Cng nghip ha v nng sutlao nggia tng din ra ring bit, do chnh sch pht trin tt nht l khng c chnh sch.
5. M hnh Lewis khng ph hp cho mi quc gia ang pht trinnhngc v c tc dng ng .
6. Trung Quc vt qua im ngoc Lewis.
7. M hnh Lewis l tng c khng cn ph hp cho Vit Nam. thay vo Vit Nam cn mt m hnh tng trngmi.
7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
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4/16/20
Lao ngd thaMPL=0
Tht nghiptr hnh
W> MPL>0W=MPL
Lng t chc
Sn lngnng nghip
Lao ngnng nghip
Giai
on2Giai
on1
Giai
on3
L1L2L3
Khu vc kinh t truyn thng
Ni tt c bt u: khu vc truyn thng
Hm sn xut nng nghip:QA= f (LA, T) T = t ai
Lng c t chc l g?
Lng t chc c gim xungmc sng?
Gi nh v lao ngd tha(MPL = 0) trong nng nghip cthc t khng?
im ngoc Lewis u?
Tin lng nng nghip s thno khi lao ngd thachuyn sang khu vc cngnghip hin i?
Chuyn dch t nn kinh t kp
(c in/tn c in)
Lao ngc rt ra khi nngnghip, to ra thng d sn lngnng nghip.
Khu vc cng nghip hin i ngtrc cung lao nghon tonkhng co dn ti mc lng tchc cng phn chnh lch
Li nhun cng nghip c ti
u tto ra cu lao ngtngthm, ly t khu vc nng nghip.
im ngoc u tin, thng dbt u gim i v W INDtng ln,lm chm qu trnh chuyn tip.
im ngoc Lewis xut hin khi w =MPL trong c hai khu vc (honton tn c in).
LIND
LAG
LIND
LS
LD LDLD
IndustrialWage
Average
Agricultural
Surplus
Agricultural
Output
Phase
one
Phase
two
Phase
three
L1 L2L3
)1( wwIND
7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
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Hm chnh sch:
1. Ti im ngoc, thng d bt u gim, gi lng thc bt u tng v lngcng nghip phi tng thu ht lao ngvo cng nghip. Kt qu l li nhungim, u tgim v s chuyn tip chm li. S chm li c th c khc
phc bng u tlm tng nng suttrong nng nghip.
2. nhiu nc, cc chnh ph nh thu mnh vo nng nghip v to ra nhngtr ngi i vi s chuyn dch lao ng. Nhng bin php ny ko di v/hocngn chn s chuyn tip. Vic b i nhng chnh sch lm cho nng nghipkhng hiu qu v cn tr s chuyn dch lao ngs gip y nhanh schuyn tip.
3. Tng trngcu lao ngtrong khu vc cng nghip s ph thuc nhiu vochnh sch cng nghip. Nu chnh ph trc tip tr cp v u tin i x chocc nhnh cng nghip thm dng vn tng i (thng l DNNN) th schuyn tip s chm v c th chch hng trc khi hon tt.
4. M ca nn kinh t v cho php chuyn mn ha trong sn xut cng nghipthm dng lao ngs to ra cu lao ngcao hn, li nhun cao hn, t l utcao hn v tc hp th lao ngd tha nhanh hn.
p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung QucTrong nhiu thp nin trc 1978, 80-90% dn s sng khu vc nng nghip,thu nhp bnh qun u ngich chm mc sng, nhng s tho g(breakout) Lewis khng xy ra. Ti sao?
Trc 1978, tho g khng xy ra v: HTX ha nng nghip trit tiu ng c sn xut v nng suttrong
nng nghip thp. Gi nng sn (c bit l go) c kim sot v phn thng d t i
c to ra u u tvo cng nghip nng, do cu lao nglthp.
H thng h khu ngn chn lao ngdi c khi nng nghip sang khuvc cng nghip
Sau 1978, S tho g Lewis xy ra v: Nng nghip c gii phng khi HTX v kinh t h c khi phc, to
ng c sn xut v lm tng mnh nng sutnng nghip. Gi nng nghip c th ni, lm tng ng k ng c sn xut. Nhng rng buc h khu c ni lng, cho php lao ngnng nghip
di c i tm vic lm tt hn trong cng nghip. Cc tnh c khuyn khch pht trin cng nghip (TVE) khu vc nng
thn.
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Tc tng trngsn lngnng nghip bnh qun hng nm tng t2.9% (1952-78) ln 7.6% (1978-85). S gia tng tc tng trngsnlngnng nghip dn n thu nhp thc bnh qun u ngitngtrong khu vc nng thn khong 15% p.a. t 1978-85, phn ln ctit kim trong cc hp tc x tn dng v ngn hng hoc u tvodoanh nghip nng thn (X nghip Hng Trn)
p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung Quc
Riedel, Gao and Jin, 2007
p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung QucNng nghip, vn l phn ln ca nn kinh t nh, tr thnh phn nh ca nnkinh t ln v t trng vic lm nng nghip gim t 80% xung khong 50% chtrong hai thp nin.
7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
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Agriculture Non-agriculture
Period
1978-05
Growth Rate
(%)
Contribution
(%)
Growth rate
(%)
Contribution
(%)
Labor 0.8 21 5.0 49
Capital 8.0 87 10.0 49Land -0.3 -23 -- --
Total 0.7 100 6.9 100
p dng m hnh Lewis vo Trung Quc
Mt nghin cu gn y (Ercolani and Wei, 2010), c lng hm snxut cho khu vc nng nghip v phi nng nghip xc nh ngun tngtrngmi ni. H thy rng tng trngca Trung Quc ch yu nhcng nghip ha, vi ng lc chia u cho tch ly vn v di c lao ng t nng nghip, y l tin trnh rt ging nhng g m hnh Lewis hnhdung.
Surplus
Labor
MPL=0
Disguised
Unempl.
W> MPL>0
W=MPL
Institutional wage
Agricultural Output
Agriculture
labor
Phase
twoPhase
one
Phase
three
L1L2L3
The Traditional SectorGiai on 1, MPL=0. Khi L gimt L1xung L2,APL tng nhngMPL khng i.
Giai on 2, MPL bt u tngvi APL, nhng MPL < APL (0),lng t chc.
Giai on 3, tin lng = MPL,tng theo s gim st lao ngnng nghip.
Nu khi lao ngnng nghipgim, MPL khng i, chng ta giai on 1. Nu MPL tng,nhng thp hn APL (0), ta G 2. Nu MPL tng v ln hnAPL (0) ta G 3.
Kim nh m hnh Lewis Trung Quc
7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
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4/16/20
Kim nh m hnh Lewis Trung Quc
T gia 1960s n 1978, MPL l khng i (G 1). Sau 1978, MPL btu tng, nhng vn nm di mc lng c t chc (APL(0)), do
Trung Quc v vn G 2, vn cha t c im ngoc Lewis.
Kim nh m hnh Lewis Trung Quc
Mt nghin cu IMF gn y (Das and NDiaye, 2013) lp lunrng Trung Quc ang thi im chuyn dch dn s gip ync ny vt qua im ngoc Lewis trong khong thi gian gia2020 v 2025 v s c nh hng ln n nn kinh t th gii.
Lao ng d tha, triu ngi
7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
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Chuyn tip sang kinh t th trngvi lao ngd tha
Nga v ng u, ngnh cng nghip nng s hu nh nc trc y b gii th gii phng ngun lc cho vic xy dng ngnh cng
nghip nh hng tiu dng hn. Nhng khng xy ra Trung Quc. Btu bng nn kinh t d tha lao ng, Trung Quc khng phi chuynngui lc t SOE xy dng ngnh nh hng xut khu mi. H c thc c haiduy tr ngnh c v xy dng ngnh mi cng lc.
Riedel. Gao and Jin, 2007
Vai tr ca nng nghip trong nn kinh t
Nng thn c n 70%dn s
Nng nghip s dng48% lc lng laong
Nhng nng nghipch chim 22% GDP
GDP bqdn. nngthn l 1/9 so vithnh th
GDP/lao ngtrongnng nghip l 1/4trong cng nghip
7/23/2019 Mo Hinh Lewis James Riedel
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Lm th no tng nng sutnng nghip
Hai cch
Hai
a lao ngd tha trong nngnghip sang cng nghip
Thc y cng nghip ha nh hngxut khu, thm dng lao ng:
To sn chi bnh ng gia doanhnghip nh ncv t nhn
T do ha h thng ti chnh thcy phn b vn hiu qu
Duy tr s n nh kinh t v m vtrnh bong bng gi ti sn ht vnkhi u tnng nghip v cngnghip
Mtp dng bin php tng hiu qu snxut nng nghip
Ci thin tp qun nng nghip?
Ci thin u vo (ging, phn bn)?
C gii ha?
Ci thin c s h tng(thy li,
giao thng...)?
Ci thin ng c (gi u vo vsn lng)?
Ci thin tip cn tn dng?
M hnh Lewis v nguyn l li th so snh ng n l nhng tngc, m nhiu nh bnh lun cho rng khng mang li hy vng cho VitNam. Thay vo ngi ta cho rng Vit Nam cn mt m hnh tngtrngmi.
Bn ngh sao?
Old School