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Mercado Petrolero InternacionalMercado Petrolero InternacionalInteracciInteraccióón: Demandan: Demanda--PreciosPreciosImplicaciones para VenezuelaImplicaciones para Venezuela
Dr. Alberto Cisneros Lavaller, CEO Dr. Alberto Cisneros Lavaller, CEO Global Business Consultants (GBC)Global Business Consultants (GBC) Junio 2009
Academia Nacional de la IngenierAcademia Nacional de la Ingenieríía y del Ha y del Háábitatbitat
4 Conversaciones
1. Demanda Global - Revisión Histórica, Perspectivas
2. Escena Internacional: Precios / Asociado- Participación Mercado- Capacidad Cerrada- Inventarios
3. Factores Geopolíticos - Perspectivas Precio
4. Implicaciones Venezuela
World Oil World Oil DemandDemandRevisitedRevisited
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
OPEC IEA
World Oil World Oil DemandDemand EstimatesEstimates ComparedCompared
Source: OPEC, IEA
58
61
64
67
81
84
87
90
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
World Oil World Oil DemandDemand: : EarlyEarly ’’80s vs. 80s vs. LastLast 5 5 YearsYears SpanSpan
Source: OPEC, IEA
-2
1,5
-2
0,9
-1
- 0,2
-1
-2,6
1980-19811979-1980 1981-1982 1982-1983
2006-20072005-2006 2007-2008 2008-2009
World Oil World Oil DemandDemand: : EarlyEarly ’’80s vs. 80s vs. LastLast 5 5 YearsYears SpanSpan DifferentialsDifferentials
Source: OPEC, IEA
MBDMBD
World Oil World Oil DemandDemand: : EarlyEarly ’’80s vs. 80s vs. LastLast 5 5 YearsYears SpanSpan & & PricePrice ComparisonComparison
Source: OPEC - IEA
58
61
64
67
81
84
87
90
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
OIL DEMAND
29,55
32,97
31,61
36,83
35,93
50,64
95,78
61,08
69,08
44,79
25
30
35
40
40
60
80
100
PRICE PATH
US GDP US GDP GrowthGrowth ComparedCompared
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
80-81 81-82 82-83
GDP GDP AnnualAnnual GrowthGrowth
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
8080
8181
8282
8383
8484
8585
86868787
8888
898990909191
9292
939394949595
96969797
98989999 0000
0101
28
OPEC Cycles of BehaviorOPEC Cycles of BehaviorStrategies 1980Strategies 1980--20012001
150150 200200 250250
7575
7575
100100
100100
FUERZAS DEL MERCADOFUERZAS DEL MERCADO
DEFENSA DE PRECIOS
DEFENSA DE PRECIOS
RECUPERACIONRECUPERACION
DE MERCADODE MERCADO
DEFENSA DE DEFENSA DE
PRECIOSPRECIOS
ProducciProduccióónn
Precios
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
8080
8181
8282
8383
8484
8585
86868787
8888
898990909191
9292
939394949595
96969797
98989999 0000
0101
28
OPEC Cycles of BehaviorOPEC Cycles of BehaviorComparisonComparison 19831983--85 vs. 9885 vs. 98--0101
150150 200200 250250
19831983--1985:1985:Mercado Spot y FuturosMercado Spot y Futuros: IncipienteIncipiente
Crudo MarcadorCrudo Marcador: ÁÁrabe Livianorabe Liviano
ParticipaciParticipacióón Mercadosn Mercados: Comienza a ser mayoritaria NoComienza a ser mayoritaria No--OPEPOPEP
Comportamiento InventariosComportamiento Inventarios: Altos Altos –– 3.4 3.4 MMMBsMMMBs. Relaci. Relacióón n Inversa (Bajos Precios altos y viceversa)Inversa (Bajos Precios altos y viceversa)
SituaciSituacióón Particularn Particular: Necesidad SAU (atriciNecesidad SAU (atricióón volumn voluméétrica trica impide cubrir necesidades gas + petroquimpide cubrir necesidades gas + petroquíímica)mica)
Productor BalanceProductor Balance: Arabia SauditaArabia Saudita
Mercado Mercado FuturosFuturos NYMEXNYMEX
DEFENSA PRECIOS DEFENSA PRECIOS
Precios
ProducciProduccióónn100100
7575
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
8080
8181
8282
8383
8484
8585
86868787
8888
8989 90909191
9292
939394949595
96969797
98989999 0000
0101
28
OPEC Cycles of BehaviorOPEC Cycles of BehaviorGeopolitical Events until 1990Geopolitical Events until 1990
150150 200200 250250
Fin de la Guerra Fin de la Guerra IrakIrak--IrIráánn
MercadosMercadosFuturosFuturos IPEIPE
DisoluciDisolucióónn de la de la URSSURSS
Guerra del Guerra del GolfoGolfo
InvasiInvasióónn KuwaitKuwait
RECUPERACION RECUPERACION MERCADOSMERCADOS
ProducciProduccióónn
Precios
100100
7575
OPEC Cycles of BehaviorOPEC Cycles of BehaviorGeopolitical Events 1974Geopolitical Events 1974--80 / 200380 / 2003--0808
ProducciProduccióónn
Precios
35
32.5
30
27.5
25
22.5
10 20 30 40 50 6015 25 35 45 55 65
7474
7575
7676
7777
7878
7979
8080
92929393
94949595
9696
97979898
9999
0000
0101
0202
0303
0404
0505
0606
CreaciCreacióónnAIEAIE
CaCaíídada ShahShah
Guerra Guerra IrIráánn--IrakIrak
TomaToma de de RehenesRehenes en en
IrIráánn
Venezuela Venezuela ParoParo
IrakIrak InvasiInvasióónn11 11 SeptiembreSeptiembre
RusiaRusia: : Crisis YukosCrisis Yukos
HuracanHuracan KatrinaKatrina
0707
70 75
0808
100*
(*) Intervalo Desigual
TheThe International International SceneScenePricePrice RelationshipsRelationships
••Market ShareMarket Share••Spare CapacitySpare Capacity••StocksStocks
Source: US Department of Energy / OPEC
““BullishBullish oror BearishBearish”” MarketMarket PricesPrices??
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan
2, 1
998
Apr
10,
199
8
Jul 1
7, 1
998
Oct
23,
199
8
Jan
29, 1
999
May
7, 1
999
Aug
13,
199
9
Nov
19,
199
9
Mar
3, 2
000
Jun
9, 2
000
Sep
22, 2
000
Dec
29,
200
0
Apr
6, 2
001
Jul 1
3, 2
001
Oct
19,
200
1
Jan
25, 2
002
May
3, 2
002
Aug
9, 2
002
Nov
15,
200
2
Feb
21, 2
003
May
30,
200
3
Sep
5, 2
003
Dec
12,
200
3
Mar
19,
200
4
Jun
25, 2
004
Oct
01,
200
4
Jan
7,20
05
Nov
-05
Jan-
07
Mar
May
OPEC BASKETOPEC BASKET
WTIWTI
$/b$/b
Source: US Department of Energy / OPEC
Dwindling OPEC ShareDwindling OPEC Share
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
MB
D
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
%
OPEC Non-OPEC Mkt ShareSource: EIA-DOE.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mbd
Note: Shaded area represents 1997-2007 average (2,5 million barrels per day)
OPEC OPEC SurplusSurplus CrudeCrude Oil Oil ProductionProduction CapacityCapacity
Source: EIA-DOE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
120
Average Spare WTI Lineal (WTI) Lineal (Spare)
Mbd $/b
SpareSpare CapacityCapacity & & PricesPrices
Source: EIA-DOE r = -0,62150079
Spare CapacityTrendline
WTITrendline
Spare Capacity & Prices: Cycles Spare Capacity & Prices: Cycles
Source: EIA-DOE
OPEC Surplus CapacityOPEC Surplus Capacity
Source: OPEC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average Spare Polinómica (Spare)
Mbd
Note: Shaded area represents 1997-2007 average (2,5 million barrels per day)
Source: EIA-DOE
OPEC Oil Production Capacity ForecastOPEC Oil Production Capacity Forecast
World Stocks Behavior: Oil & Products World Stocks Behavior: Oil & Products (1983(1983--2008)2008)
500
900
1300
1700
2100
2500
2900
3300
3700
4100
4500
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MB
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
%
OECD Total Stocks OECD Crude Stocks % OECD Products Stocks
Sources: EIA-DOE; and IEA
19,3
41,5
56,6
24,5
34,6
16,0
19,2
15,1
38,6
30,6
17,222,1
14,4
30,4
26,0
31,1
99,7
72,3
66,1
3,408
4,006
3,255
3,494
3,643
3,588
3,7063,718
3,875
3,762
4,067
3,733
3,912
3,811
4,084
4,127
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082,7
3,0
3,2
3,5
3,8
4,0
4,3
4,5
4,8
WTI OECD Total Stocks Polinómica (OECD Total Stocks) Polinómica (WTI)
$/b MB
Global Stocks & WTIGlobal Stocks & WTI1983-2008
Sources: EIA-DOE
Total Stocks vs. WTITotal Stocks vs. WTIMonthlyMonthly
3.400
3.500
3.600
3.700
3.800
3.900
4.000
4.100
4.200
4.300
Ene-
01
Abr-
01
Jul-0
1
Oct
-01
Ene-
02
Abr-
02
Jul-0
2
Oct
-02
Ene-
03
Abr-
03
Jul-0
3
Oct
-03
Ene-
04
Abr-
04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Ene-
05
Abr-
05
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Ene-
06
Abr-
06
Jul-0
6
Oct
-06
Ene-
07
Abr-
07
Jul-0
7
Oct
-07
Ene-
08
Abr-
08
Jul-0
8
Oct
-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Stocks WTI Lineal (WTI) Lineal (Stocks)
$/bMB
Sources: EIA-DOE; and IEA
Total Stocks vs. WTITotal Stocks vs. WTI
3.400
3.500
3.600
3.700
3.800
3.900
4.000
4.100
4.200
4.300
Ene‐
01Ab
r‐01
Jul‐0
1Oc
t‐01
Ene‐
02Ab
r‐02
Jul‐0
2Oc
t‐02
Ene‐
03Ab
r‐03
Jul‐0
3Oc
t‐03
Ene‐
04Ab
r‐04
Jul‐0
4Oc
t‐04
Ene‐
05Ab
r‐05
Jul‐0
5Oc
t‐05
Ene‐
06Ab
r‐06
Jul‐0
6Oc
t‐06
Ene‐
07Ab
r‐07
Jul‐0
7Oc
t‐07
Ene‐
08Ab
r‐08
Jul‐0
8Oc
t‐08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
)Polinómica (WTI )Polinómica (Stocks
$/bMB
During Jan/01 & Mar/03 r =-0,71861
During Jan/05 & Jan/08 r = 0,31824
Sources: EIA-DOE; and IEA
Stocks vs. WTIStocks vs. WTIStocks
0500
1000
1500200025003000
350040004500
Abr-01
Ago-01Dic-
01Abr-0
2Ago-02Dic-
02Abr-0
3Ago-03Dic-
03Abr-0
4Ago-04Dic-
04Abr-0
5Ago-05Dic-
05Abr-0
6Ago-06Dic-
06Abr-0
7Ago-07Dic-
07Abr-0
8Ago-08Dic-
08
Industry Government
Industry Stocks & WTI
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
Mar-01
Jul-01
Nov-01
Mar-02
Jul-0
2Nov
-02Mar-
03Jul-0
3Nov
-03Mar-
04Ju
l-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-0
5Nov
-05Mar-
06Ju
l-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-0
7Nov
-07Mar-
08Ju
l-08
Nov-08
MB
0
23,3
46,6
69,9
93,2
116,5
139,8
Industry WTI Polinómica (WTI) Polinómica (Industry)
$/b
GOVT Stocks & WTI
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
Mar-01
Jul-01
Nov-01Mar-0
2Jul-0
2Nov-02Mar-0
3Jul-0
3Nov-03Mar-0
4Jul-0
4Nov-04Mar-0
5Jul-0
5Nov-05Mar-0
6Jul-0
6Nov-06Mar-0
7Jul-0
7Nov-07Mar-0
8Jul-0
8Nov-08
MB
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Government WTI Polinómica (WTI) Polinómica (Government )
$/b
Total Stocks & WTI
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
Mar-01
Jul-01
Nov-01Mar-0
2Jul-0
2Nov-02Mar-0
3Jul-0
3Nov-03Mar-0
4Jul-0
4Nov-04Mar-0
5Jul-0
5Nov-05Mar-0
6Jul-0
6Nov-06Mar-0
7Jul-0
7Nov-07Mar-0
8Jul-0
8Nov-08
MB
0
23,3
46,6
69,9
93,2
116,5
139,8
Total WTI Polinómica (WTI) Polinómica (Total)
$/b
r = 0,791516
r = 0,323114 r = 0,755673
Sources: EIA-DOE; and IEA
Industry Stocks & WTIIndustry Stocks & WTI
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
Mar‐01
Jun‐01
Sep‐01
Dic‐01
Mar‐02
Jun‐02
Sep‐02
Dic‐02
Mar‐03
Jun‐03
Sep‐03
Dic‐03
Mar‐04
Jun‐04
Sep‐04
Dic‐04
Mar‐05
Jun‐05
Sep‐05
Dic‐05
Mar‐06
Jun‐06
Sep‐06
Dic‐06
Mar‐07
Jun‐07
Sep‐07
Dic‐07
Mar‐08
Jun‐08
Sep‐08
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
Industry WTI Poly (WTI) Poly (Industry)
During Mar/01 & Mar/03 r =-0,7157
During Mar/06 & Sep/07 r =-0,5082
Sources: EIA-DOE; and IEA
Prices vs. Prices vs. Market Share, Idle Capacity & StocksMarket Share, Idle Capacity & Stocks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
MBD
0
11
21
32
42
53
63
74
84
95
105 $/b
OPEC Mkt Share OPEC Idle Capacity OECD Crude Stocks OPEC Price
Sources: OPEC & IEA
TraditionalTraditional vs. vs. SurpriseSurprise Free Free ScenarioScenario (Geopolitics as
variable vs. a constant) & Oil & Oil MarketMarket AlternativesAlternatives ((HeatedEconomy vs. Steady Growth)
Overs
hoot
ing
Overs
hoot
ing
HiccupHiccup
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Venezuela Venezuela ImplicationsImplications
World World RigRig CountsCounts & Production& Production1995-2008
400
600
800
1000
1200
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Rig
30
45
60
75
90MBD
Rig Production r = 0,65
Source: Baker Hughes/EIA-DOE
World World RigRig CountsCounts & WTI& WTI1998-2009
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Ene-
98
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
99
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
00
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
01
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
02
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
03
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
04
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
05
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
06
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
07
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
08
May
-
Sep-
Ene-
09
May
-
Rig
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140$/b
Rig WTI Polinómica (WTI) Polinómica (Rig) r = 0,83
Source: Baker Hughes/EIA-DOE
Venezuela: Production & Venezuela: Production & DrillingDrilling ActivityActivity
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Kbd
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Production Drilling Rigs Polinómica (Production) Polinómica (Drilling Rigs) r = 0,70
Source: Baker Hughes/EIA-DOE
Venezuela Venezuela ShareShare in in OpecOpec
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MBD
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%%
Venezuela OPEC %
Source: OPEC
OPEC & Venezuela Production OPEC & Venezuela Production
1
10
100
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
MBD
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%%
Venezuela OPEC Venezuela %
Source: OPEC
Prices in VenezuelaPrices in Venezuela
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-07FebMarAprMayJun JulAugSep OctNovDec
Jan-08FebMarAprMayJun JulAugSep OctNovDec
Jan-09Feb
WTI OPEC Basket BCF-17Source: OPEC/EIA-DOE
Venezuela: Prices/DemandVenezuela: Prices/Demand
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
10,0
21,4
32,9
44,3
55,7
67,1
78,6
90,0
Demand PriceSource: OPEC/EIA-DOE
r = 0.87
GDP: GDP: AnnualAnnual PercentagePercentage ChangeChange
1
-3,7
1,3
3,3
-1,3
2,2
5,15,7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010
Mexico Brasil
%
8,4
4,8
-2,2
-0,5
4,6
5,9
2,2
2,9
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010
Venezuela Bolivia
%
Source: FMI
VEN VEN ExportsExports & & ImportsImports
26
55,7
35
65,2
49
69,1
51
93,5
38,2
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Imports Exports
US $B
Source: BCV
VEN VEN RevenuesRevenues vs. vs. ImportsImports
6,7
6
6
58,448,1
87
20
62,5
6,6
7,5
5149
35
26
38,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
Oil Revenues Revenues Imports
US $ B
86.5%89.7%
90.4%
93.5%
76.9%
56
6569
93
26
Source: BCV
•BACK UP
US GDP US GDP GrowthGrowth ComparedCompared
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
80-81 81-82 82-83
GDP GDP AnnualAnnual GrowthGrowth
Total Stocks vs. WTITotal Stocks vs. WTIMonthlyMonthly
Sources: EIA-DOE; and IEA
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
Ene-
01Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
02Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
03Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
04Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
05Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
06Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
07Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
08Abr Ju
lOct
Ene-
09
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Stocks WTI
VEN VEN RevenuesRevenues vs. vs. ImportsImports
6,7
6
6
58,448,1
87
20
62,5
6,6
7,5
5149
35
26
38,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
Oil Revenues Revenues Imports
US $ B
86.5%89.7%
90.4%
93.5%
76.9%
56
6569
93
26
Source: BCV
