MENA SVOD players toil to compete with Netflix

The MENA region will have 20.80 million movie and TV series SVOD subscribers by 2023, up from the 5.22 million recorded by end-2017.

From the 20 countries covered in the Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts report, Turkey will remain the leader by some distance, with 6.72 million subscribers by 2023 – or a third of the region’s total.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Netflix is dominant across the MENA region. This is partly because it operates in more territories than its Arabic competitors – it has significant subs bases in Israel and Turkey. However, its success is down to more than geographic reach. The global appeal of its original content has spread throughout the region.”

Source: Digital TV Research

From its regional total of 7.41 million, Netflix will have 3.57 million subscribers in Arabic-speaking countries by 2023. This is higher than its nearest rival Starz Play (2.80 million). The top eight multinational platforms (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Icflix, Starz Play, Iflix, Wavo, beIN Connect and Shahid Plus) will account for three-quarters of the region’s SVOD subscribers by end-2023, up from 56% in 2017. Extracting Israel and Turkey, these eight platforms will retain 91% of SVOD subscribers.

2017 2023

Others 2,303 5,235

beIN Connect 70 689

Wavo 20 675

Shahid Plus 103 1,603

Iflix 11 315

Starz Play 596 2,802

Icflix 140 729

Amazon 180 1,334

Netflix 1,799 7,413

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

SVOD subscriber forecasts by platform (000)

Murray continued: “Although overall subscriber numbers will climb impressively, there are just too many Arabic platforms. They do not offer enough original or exclusive content to seriously challenge Netflix. We do not believe that the market can sustain this many Arabic platforms in the long run. Our report only covers paying SVOD subscribers – not those receiving free platforms as part of their pay TV subscription.”

SVOD revenues will grow sixfold between 2017 and 2023 to $2.03 billion. Market leader Turkey will add $451 million to more than double its total to $603 million by 2023. Saudi Arabia will increase its SVOD revenues by a factor of seven to reach $351 million in 2023 to take second place.

Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts

Table of Contents

Published in July 2018, this 184-page PDF and excel report comes in seven parts:

• Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects;

• Major SVOD platforms, including market share for each;

• Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2023 by platform, by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues;

• Top-line forecasts (population, population per household, households, TV households, fixed broadband homes, smartphone users, tablet users) for 20 countries;

• Country profiles for 20 territories;

• Detailed country forecasts for 20 nations.

• NEW FOR 2018: Prospects. Subscriber forecasts for 20 countries in a visually-appealing 44-page document.

For more information, please click here or contact lydia@digitaltvresearch.com

Forecasts for the following 123 platforms across 20 countries:

Country SVOD ops

SVOD Platforms

Algeria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Armenia 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video

Azerbaijan 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo

Bahrain 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Egypt 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Georgia 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo

Israel 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Cellcom TV; Partner; Sting TV

Jordan 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Kazakhstan 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo

Kuwait 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Lebanon 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Morocco 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect

Oman 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Qatar 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Saudi Arabia 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect

Syria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Tunisia 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect

Turkey 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Tivibu; Turkcell; beIN Connect; D-Smart blu; Vodafone TV

UAE 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect

Uzbekistan 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo

SAMPLE: UAE OTT TV & video insight

• OTT TV & video revenues will reach $168 million by 2023, quintuple the $30 million recorded in 2017. Advertising on OTT sites will provide $14 million to the 2023 total. SVOD will bring in a further $141 million by 2023, seven times the 2017 total. There were 267,000 SVOD homes by end-2017, and this will grow rapidly to 1,336,000 in 2023 (59% of TV households).

Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The OTT sector is very competitive as a consequence we have substantially

upgraded our SVOD forecasts.

• There is plenty of SVOD activity.

• The large ex-pat community will boost SVOD take-up.

• Both fixed broadband and smartphone penetration are high.

Source: Digital TV Research

• Netflix launched in the UAE in January 2016 as part of its global expansion. Netflix has Arabic dubbed or subtitled content. Subscriptions cost at AED29.34-44.00/month. We forecast 482,000 subs by 2023, up from 137,000 at end-2017. Netflix has a distribution deal with OSN.

• Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at $5.99/month, but Amazon offers less original or local content than Netflix. Appealing mostly to the ex-pat community, we forecast 87,000 Amazon subs by 2023.

• Starz Play claimed 700,000 subscribers across 19 countries in the region by mid-2017. Transmitting in English, Arabic and French, Starz Play has 7,000 hours of Hollywood content as well as 1,300 hours of Arabic content. Starz has an exclusive distribution deal with Etisalat (AED35/month, $9.53) since January 2018. Previously Starz Play had partnered with Du (AED30/month). Given the added Arabic content, we expect its subs base to climb to 327,000 by 2023.

• Started in 2012, Icflix is the longest established SVOD platform. We forecast 73,000 subscribers by 2023. With Arabic, English and French content, Icflix provides more than 20,000 hours of content. Icflix (AED29/month, $7.90) was carried by mobile operator Etisalat.

• MBC’s Shahid Plus provides 10 linear channels as well as on-demand content. Shahid Plus is carried by mobile operator Du (AED20/month, $5.45). We forecast 200,000 subs by 2023.

• OSN launched SVOD platform Wavo (AED26/month, $7.08) in August 2017.

Wavo carries OSN’s movie archive and HBO content as well as 26 linear channels. OSN signed a distribution agreement with Netflix in February 2018, following one with mobile operator Du in October 2017. We expect 86,000 paying subscribers by 2023.

• beIN Connect provides access to all 67 channels available on the satellite TV package as well as 2,000 on-demand TV episodes and 300 on-demand movies – free to satellite TV subs or AED66/month ($17.98) to others. We forecast 44,000 paying subscribers by 2023.

• Telly is also available in the UAE. Telly is available in 14 countries across the region.

• Launched in March 2011, Istikana ($3.99/month) is available in seven countries, including the UAE where it is carried by Du and Etisalat.

• Hong Kong’s Viu started operations in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE in February 2017. Local content is included as well as international fare to appeal to ex-pats.

• Piracy is rife, with illegal decoders/smart cards (such as Dreambox) to pay satellite TV operations commonplace. Frequent attempts to combat these pirate dishes have been largely unsuccessful. However, OSN and others have made some progress in combating piracy.

Etisalat subscriber growth (000) Double-play & Triple-play Fixed broadband

4Q10 180 700

4Q11 350 750

4Q12 510 810

4Q13 650 890

4Q14 780 980

4Q15 870 1,060

4Q16 960 1,110

4Q17 970 1,130

Source: Etisalat

• Abu Dhabi-headquartered Etisalat migrated all of its e-Vision cable customers to its eLife bundles by March 2014. In October 2011, Etisalat launched eLife TV as a triple-play and OTT service via its fiber optic network (providing up to 500Mbps download speeds, with 90% of premises passed). eLife subscribers have access to OSN, beIN and Abu Dhabi Sports packages as well as the Starz Play SVOD platform (AED35/month). MBC channels are available exclusively. TV is not available as a standalone service.

• In November 2017, Etisalat claimed to have launched the first 4G IPTV network in the region. Etisalat had 11.05 million mobile subscribers by March 2018.

Du broadband and TV subscribers (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Broadband 96 124 140 157 172 185 197

TV 93 114 122 132 140 152 156

TV ARPU (AED) - - 65 69 72 75

Source: Du

• Based in Dubai, Du’s IPTV service had an estimated 160,000 subs at end-2017, which we forecast will reach 195,000 by 2023. Similar to Etisalat, Du has rolled out a fiber network (up to 1Gbps). Du also has 8.25 million mobile subscribers.

• Launched in 2009, Du subscribers can access many OSN packages, with its SVOD platform Wavo also available. Du also added Starz Play (AED30/month) and Shahid Plus (AED20/month). Mostly available in bundles, the standalone TV service costs AED85/month ($23.16).

• Du is 39.50% owned by the Emirates Investment Authority, 19.75% by Mubadala Development Company, 19.50% by Emirates Communications & Technology Company and 21.25% floated.

UAE: Internet subscribers by platform (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Wi-max, cable

11 6 4 3 3 0 0 0

Fiber 289 495 679 841 964 1,101

Copper 1,074 827 272 198 122 129

Total 1,375 1,327 958 1,043 1,090 1,234 1,299 1,349

Of which residential

698 772 847 925 969 1,066

Standalone 49% 34% 24% 23% 16%

Double-play 34% 35% 39% 31% 23%

Triple-play 17% 31% 37% 46% 61%

Source: TRA. Note: change in methodology in 2012

UAE OTT TV & video forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Population (000)

Total households (000)

TV households (000)

Fixed broadband households (000)

Smartphone subscribers (000)

Tablet subscribers (000)

TV HH/Total HH

Fixed broadband HH/Total HH

Smartphone subs/Population

Tablet subs/Population

OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000)

OTT TV & video HH/Fixed broadband HH

OTT TV & video HH/TV HH

OTT TV & video smartph subs (000)

OTT TV & video HH/smartph subs

Gross OTT TV & video total (000)

SVOD total subscribers (000)

SVOD homes/TVHH

SVOD homes/Fixed broadband HH

SVOD homes/Smartphone users

TV rental transactions (000)

Movie rental transactions (000)

Total rental transactions (000)

TV download-to-own trans (000)

Movie download-to-own trans (000)

Total download-to-own trans (000)

Online advertising total (US$ mil.)

Online advg for OTT sites (US$ mil.)

Online TV rental revenues (US$ mil.)

Online movie rental revs (US$ mil.)

Online rental revenues (US$ mil.)

Download-to-own TV rev (US$ mil.)

DTO movie revs (US$ mil.)

DTO video revenues (US$ mil.)

SVOD revenues (US$ mil.)

OTT TV & video revenues (US$ mil.)

UAE OTT TV & video forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

SVOD subscribers by operator (000)

Netflix

Amazon

Icflix

Starz Play

Shahid Plus

Wavo

beIN Connect

Others

Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (%)

Netflix

Amazon

Icflix

Starz Play

Shahid Plus

Wavo

beIN Connect

Others

SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.)

Netflix

Amazon

Icflix

Starz Play

Shahid Plus

Wavo

beIN Connect

Others

Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%)

Netflix

Amazon

Icflix

Starz Play

Shahid Plus

Wavo

beIN Connect

Others

UAE OTT TV & video forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

SVOD ARPU by operator ($)

Netflix

Amazon

Icflix

Starz Play

Shahid Plus

Wavo

beIN Connect

Source: Digital TV Research

UAE OTT TV & video prospects

2017 2018 2019 2023

SVOD 19 39 63 141

DTO 3 3 4 8

Rental 2 3 4 6

AVOD 6 6 8 14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Revenues by source ($m)

10,430

2,010

1,959

1,246

7,197

2,295

12,125

2,323

2,265

1,591

9,942

3,383

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,00012,00014,000

Population

Households

TV households

Fixed broadband

Smartphone

Tablets

Device penetration (000)

2023 2018

UAE SVOD prospects

2017 2018 2019 2023

Others 10 14 18 36

beIN Connect 1 5 11 44

Wavo 3 10 22 86

Shahid Plus 13 38 72 200

Starz Play 73 138 191 327

Icflix 15 28 40 73

Amazon 14 30 45 87

Netflix 137 247 322 482

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

Subscribers by operator (000)

2017 2018 2019 2023

Others 1 1 1 3

beIN Connect 0 1 2 9

Wavo 0 1 1 7

Shahid Plus 0 2 4 15

Starz Play 6 12 19 36

Icflix 1 2 3 7

Amazon 0 2 3 6

Netflix 11 20 31 59

020406080

100120140160

Revenues by operator ($m)

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2018 Title Publication Price

1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560

2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts

January £1200/€1440/$1560

3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1440/$1560

4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560

5 North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650

6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560

7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560

8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950

9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950

10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950

11 Pay TV Subscriber Prospects May £800/€960/$1040

12 Pay TV Revenue Prospects May £800/€960/$1040

13 vMVPD and D2C TV Forecasts May £900/€1080/$1170

14 Netflix Forecasts May £700/€840/$910

15 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts June

£1000/€1200/$1300

16 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts

July £1000/€1200/$1300

17 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300

18 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300

19 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £500/€600/$650

20 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300

21 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300

22 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340

23 Global SVOD Forecasts November £1500/€1800/$1950

24 OTT TV & Video Prospects November £1000/€1200/$1300

25 SVOD Prospects December £900/€1080/$1170

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