Phil Rockefeller Chair

Washington

W. Bill Booth Vice Chair

Idaho

Tom Karier Washington

Henry Lorenzen

Oregon

Bill Bradbury Oregon

James Yost

Idaho

Pat Smith Montana

Jennifer Anders

Montana

February 3, 2015

MEMORANDUM TO: Power Committee FROM: Charlie Grist, Tina Jayaweera, Kevin Smit SUBJECT: Draft Conservation Supply Curve BACKGROUND: Presenter: Charlie Grist, Tina Jayaweera, Kevin Smit Summary: Staff will summarize the discussions from the January Conservation

Resources Advisory Committee (CRAC) meetings, including updates on issues presented at the December Power Committee meeting and proposed ramp rates.

Staff will then provide an overview of the key drivers of the changes in conservation potential since the completion of the Sixth Power Plan’s assessment. These drivers include: Conservation accomplishments New and revised state energy codes and federal standards Load forecast revisions Updated assessments of stock and market characteristics New conservation opportunities Updated measure savings

Staff will provide preliminary results, overall and by sector, and describe specific examples of how these drivers are affecting the sector’s conservation potential relative to the Sixth Plan. We will also include a list of measures considered by sector. Overall, staff’s preliminary estimate of remaining conservation potential has decreased from the Sixth Plan, primarily due to slower underlying

regional load growth, the impact of new efficiency standards and utility program achievements. However, significant potential remains.

Relevance: This presentation provides the Power Committee a preview of the draft

results that will be presented to the full Council during the March meeting. Workplan: 1D. Prepare for Seventh Power Plan and maintain analytical capability;

update conservation supply curves. Background: During the January 2015 Power Committee meeting, staff discussed the

key policy issues raised to-date with the CRAC. Two of those issues were discussed further at CRAC meetings held later in January. In addition, the draft load forecast was presented at the December 2014 Power Committee meeting. The draft results and other drivers for the conservation supply curves have not been previously discussed with the Council for the Seventh Plan.

More Info: CRAC meeting notes and comments from stakeholders are available on

the CRAC webpage: http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/crac/home/

2/3/2015

1

Conservation Resources

Power Committee

February 10, 2015

Key Drivers of Remaining Conservation

AmountFocus of today’s 

presentation

Total MWh of savings

Pace Year by year maximum acquisition amount

CostT t l t (b $/kWh bi )

1

Total resource cost (by $/kWh bin)

2

2/3/2015

2

Status Recent discussions with CRAC

R id ti l li hti h ith h t t Residential lighting approach with short-term “PPA-like” savings: OK Residential behavior/control optimization

program: OK, though didn’t like name Ramp rates: generally OK, some adjustments

Compiling results Compiling results Some workbooks available now for review

Draft results in March for RPM inputs

3

Ramp Rates Used to determine maximum pace of

acquisition in conjunction with annual unit acquisition in conjunction with annual unit count

Now based on acquisition year Depends on when cost bundle is selected Not equal to plan year

For 7P, aligned retrofit and lost opportunity to single set of eight curvesto single set of eight curves

Achievability fraction (85%) applied on top of ramp rate

4

2/3/2015

3

Suite of Ramp Rates

80%

90%

100%vable

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

mulative Percent Achiev

12Med

5Med

1Slow

50Fast

20Fast

Even20

Max60

5

0%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920

Cu

Acquisition Year

Max60

3Slow

Suite of Ramp Rates

80%

90%

100%

able

Res weatherization, Com interior lighting, Ind process 

improvements

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

mulative Percent Achieva 12Med

5Med

1Slow

50Fast

20Fast

Even20

Max60

Low energy spray application irrigation, com interior glazing, res drain water heat 

6

0%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920

Cum

Acquisition Year

Max60

3Slowrecovery

2/3/2015

4

THCOMPARING WITH 6TH PLAN

7

6P Supply Curve

7000

8000

Wa)

Residential Consumer ElectronicsCommercial IndustrialAgriculture Utility Distribution

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

evab

le P

oten

tial b

y 20

29 (M

W

8

0

1000

<0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200>2

00Levelized Cost (2006$/MWh)

Ach

ie

2/3/2015

5

Overview of DriversRelative to the 6th Plan Conservation Potential :

Decreases due to:• Conservation accomplishments• New and revised state energy codes and federal New and revised state energy codes and federal

standards• Lower Load forecast• Culled measures

Increases due to:• New measures• Higher units counts for some measures

9

Decreases/Increases/Remains the Same due to:• Updated assessments of stock and market

characteristics

Program Accomplishments have Exceeded Targets Since 2005

255277

247268

300Target

135 147 

203 

234 231247

100

150

200

250

Annual Savings (MWa) Actual

0

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

10

Cumulative savings since the 6th are expected to be near 1300 aMW.

2/3/2015

6

6th Plan Accomplishments Thru 2013

1,400 

W)

400 

600 

800 

1,000 

1,200 

lative Savings (aM

W

Momentum Savings

Codes & Standards

Programs

‐

200 

2010‐2013

Cumu

11

Baseline Load Forecast is Lower

30 000

32,000 

aMW)

22 000

24,000 

26,000 

28,000 

30,000 

cast Regional Load

s (a

7P

6P

12

20,000 

22,000 

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

Fore

Year

2/3/2015

7

36 New Federal Efficiency Standards Take Effect This Decade

Electric MotorsCommercial Refrigeration Equipment

Walk‐In Coolers and FreezersMetal Halide Lamp Fixtures

Automatic Commercial Ice MakersClothes Washers, Commercial

General Service Fluorescent LampsFurnace Fans

Candelabra & Intermediate Base Incandescent LampsGeneral Service Lamps: Incandescents plus CFLs, GSLED, GSOLED

Direct Heating EquipmentDishwashersPool Heaters

Commercial CAC and HP (Water‐ and Evaporatively‐Cooled) Refrigerators and Freezers

Room Air ConditionersFluorescent Lamp Ballasts

Central Air Conditioners and Heat PumpsClothes Dryers

Clothes WashersFurnaces

Water HeatersSmall Electric Motors

External Power SuppliesMicrowave Ovens

Distribution Transformers: Liquid‐ImmersedDistribution Transformers: Low‐Voltage Dry‐Type

Distribution Transformers: Medium‐Voltage Dry‐TypeElectric Motors

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Commercial CAC and HP (65,000 Btu/hr to 760,000 Btu/hr)Packaged Terminal AC and HP

Single Package Vertical Air Conditioners and Heat PumpsBoilers

DehumidifiersRanges and Ovens

Boilers, CommercialVending Machines

Candelabra & Intermediate Base Incandescent Lamps

Year New Standard Takes Effect

13

26,000

27,000

MW) With standards

Without standards

Impact of Federal Standards on Loads*

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

recast Regional Load

s (aM Without standards

20,000

21,000

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

For

14*Draft estimate, subject to change

2/3/2015

8

Number of Units in Year 20*UnitUnit 66thth Plan (2030)Plan (2030) 77thth Plan (2035)Plan (2035)

Count of Homes 7.6 Million 7.2 Million

Commercial Floor Area 3.8 Billion SF 4.0 Billion SF

Industrial MWh Sales 4,900 aMW 4,600 aMW

New commercial floor area lower by ~30%

New homes added 15% lower New homes added ~15% lower

Industrial loads lower ~ 6%

15

*Medium Forecast

Significant Changes from Recent Stock Assessments

Single FamilySingle Family 66thth PlanPlan 77thth PlanPlan

Electric water heating 64% 55%

Electric space heating 46% 34%

Commercial 6th Plan 7th Plan

kWh use per SF 16 14

16

kWh use per SF 16 14

Lighting power per SF (W) 1.15 0.99 

Electric  space heating 27% 32%

2/3/2015

9

Why Measures Were Culled from 6th Plan?

Measure or efficiency level is now standard practicepractice

Captured by federal standards or state codes

Reduced estimate of potential from updated stock assessment or technical analysis

Sector-specific examples coming up

17

What’s New in 7th Plan Conservation Potential Assessment

Stock assessments (Residential, Commercial, Industrial)

Notable new measures Solid state lighting Advanced power strips Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) for HVAC Ductless heat pumps for forced air furnaces Advanced commercial rooftop HVAC unit control

Notable measure savings updates from RTF Adjustments to residential weatherization & HVAC Irrigation hardware Commercial cooking equipment

18

2/3/2015

10

20-year Technical PotentialThus Far…

6000

7000MW)

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Achievable Potential (aM

Distribution Eff

Agriculture

Industrial

Commcercial

Residential

0

1000

2000

6P 7P

Regional A Residential

19

RESIDENTIAL

20

2/3/2015

11

Residential Measures Heat pump dryers* ENERGY STAR monitors ENERGY STAR desktops

Ductless heat pumps Drain water heat recovery WIFI thermostatsN G S des tops

ENERGY STAR laptops Advanced Power Strips Efficient Oven Efficient Microwave Attic Insulation Wall Insulation Floor Insulation Low-U Windows

W t e ostats LED lighting ENERGY STAR refrigerators ENERGY STAR freezers Drain water heat recovery Heat pump water heater ENERGY STAR dishwasher Low-flow showerheads Faucet aerators

Infiltration control Duct sealing Heat Recovery Ventilation Variable speed heat pumps Efficient air source heat pumps*

Behavior/COP Efficient electric vehicle chargers Controls, Commissioning & Sizing Solar water heaters* ENERGY STAR clothes washers*

21*in progress

Residential Potential:Key Drivers of Change From 6th Plan

•TVs•Set‐top boxes•New 

construction shell

•Weather‐ization

•Advanced power strips

•DHP in ducted systemsB h i

22

•Behavior

Overall 20‐year Residential Sector remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.

2/3/2015

12

COMMERCIAL

23

Commercial Measures Advanced Rooftop Controller

Chiller - equip retrofits

Commercial Clothes Washers

Motors – Rewind

Municipal Sewage Treatment

Municipal Water Supply

Commercial Computer & Monitor

Commercial Energy Management

Compressed Air

Cooking Equipment

Data Centers

Demand Control Ventilation

DHW - Efficient Tanks

DHW - Showerheads

ECM on VAV Boxes

p pp y

Parking Lighting

Premium Fume Hood

Pre-Rinse Spray Valve

Secondary Glazing Systems

Smart Plug Power Strips

Street and Roadway Lighting

Switched Reluctance/Permanent Magnet Motors

Ultra Low Energy Building-New

Exterior Building Lighting

Grocery Refrigeration Bundle

Lighting Controls Interior

Lighting-Interior

Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC

Variable Speed Chiller

Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF)

Water Cooler Controls

Weatherization - School

24

2/3/2015

13

Commercial Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan

•Packaged Refrigeration •Network PC•Premium HVAC

•Day lighting•VRF•ARC

•Lighting •Cooking

25

Overall 20‐year Commercial Sector remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.

INDUSTRIAL

26

2/3/2015

14

Industrial Measures Air Compressor Demand Reduction

Air Compressor Equipment

Air Compressor Management

HighBay Lighting

Mech Pulp: Refiner Replacement

Mech Pulp: Premium Process

Mech Pulp: Refiner Plate Improvement

Kraft Pulp: Effluent Treatment SystemHighBay Lighting

Lighting Controls

Motors: Efficient Rewind

VSD Controls

Motor Management Program

Fan Efficient Centrifugal

Food: Fans and Blowers

Other: Fans and Blowers

Fan ASD Control

Kraft Pulp: Effluent Treatment System

Kraft Pulp: Efficient Agitator

Paper: Efficient Pulp Screen

Paper: Premium Fan

Paper: Material Handling

Wood: Replace Pneumatic Conveyor

Wood: Hydraulic Press

Cold Storage Retrofit

Cold Storage Tuneup

Premium Pump

Pump ASD Control

Food: Cooling and Storage

Food: Refrig Storage O&M

Metal: New Arc Furnace

Paper: Medium Consistency Pump

Fruit Storage Refer Retrofit

CS Retrofit -- CO2 Scrub

CS Retrofit -- Membrane

Fruit Storage Tuneup

Groc Dist Retrofit & Tuneup

Generic O&M

27

Industrial Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan

•Much done•Transformers•Lower loads

28

Overall 20‐year Industrial Sector remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.

2/3/2015

15

AGRICULTURE

29

Ag Measures Irrigation Hardware (nozzles

Motor rewind

Dairy Hardware (nozzles, gaskets, drop replacements) Scientific irrigation

systems Low-energy spray

Dairy Milk Precoolers VFD on milkers Efficient lighting Refrigeration heat

recoveryapplication (LESA) High/medium to

low pressure drop

recovery

Area (barn) lights

30

2/3/2015

16

Agriculture Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan

•

•Shift to large‐scale dairy farms

•Accomplish‐ments

•LESA•Area lights

•Acres irrigated

31

Overall 20‐year Agricultural Sector remaining technical potential is expected to increase.

ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

32

2/3/2015

17

Distribution System Measures Reduce system voltage via line drop

compensationcompensation

Minor system improvements Phase load balancing, feeder load balancing,

VAR management

Major system improvementsj y p Substation upgrades & select re-conductoring

Automatic end-of-line voltage control

33*in progress

Distribution System Potential:Key Drivers of Change from 6th Plan

• Accomplishments•Lower Applicability

•Lower loads

34

Overall 20‐year Distribution System remaining technical potential is expected to decrease.

2/3/2015

18

WRAP UP

35

Themes Strong program achievements since 6th

PlanPlan Major codes & standards activity Continue to find new opportunities Significant remaining potential More conservation >$100 per MWh than 6th$ p

Plan However, significant amounts of low-cost

potential remains

36

2/3/2015

19

Next Steps

Completing technical analysis

Soliciting feedback on technical analysis

Bundle results

Draft supply curves ready final review by CRAC and Council in March

f h l i f fi l i Draft 7th Plan inputs for RPM final in March

37