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Meltdown Monday Tutor2u Economics 15 th September 2008

Meltdown Monday

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Meltdown Monday. Tutor2u Economics 15 th September 2008. A day that shook the world. Lehman tips over the brink. Market Panic over HBoS. Greenspan on the crisis. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Meltdown Monday

Meltdown Monday

Tutor2u Economics

15th September 2008

Page 2: Meltdown Monday

A day that shook the world

Page 3: Meltdown Monday

Lehman tips over the brink

Lehman Bros Share Price

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Jan07

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan08

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

US

D

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Page 4: Meltdown Monday

Market Panic over HBoS

£s per share

HBoS ordinary share price

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Jan06

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan07

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan08

Mar May Jul Sep

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

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11

12

GB

P

0

1

2

3

4

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6

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9

10

11

12 United Kingdom, HBOS ORD, Close, Pounds Sterling 2.325

Page 5: Meltdown Monday

Greenspan on the crisis

• Alan Greenspan has described the current chaos in the markets as "a once-in-a-century type of financial crisis" adding that it would inevitably have a significant impact on the global economy

Page 6: Meltdown Monday

AIG seeks emergency funding

Robert Peston’s Blog

“one of the world's biggest insurers, AIG, is reeling from losses on its exposure to real estate and credit default swaps, or complicated financial insurance - and, according to the New York Times, is seeking a $40bn bridging loan from the Fed.”

Page 7: Meltdown Monday

The US housing slide holds the key

“The humbling moves, which reshape the landscape of American finance, mark the latest chapter in a tumultuous year in which once-proud financial institutions have been brought to their knees as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars in losses because of bad mortgage finance and real estate investments.”

Source: New York Times

Monthly house price index Jan 2000=100

US House Prices - S&P Case-Shiller Index

S&P Case-Shiller, Chicago S&P Case-Shiller, Composite-10

S&P Case-Shiller, New York S&P Case-Shiller, San Francisco

Source: Reuters EcoWin

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Inde

x

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Page 9: Meltdown Monday

Every cloud …..

Closing daily price, US dollars per barrel of oil

Brent Crude Oil Prices

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Jan06

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan07

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan08

Mar May Jul Sep

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

US

dol

lars

per

bar

rel

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Page 10: Meltdown Monday

When will rates be cut?

Per Cent

Interest Rates for the Euro Zone, the UK and the USA

Euro Zone Interest Rate United States Interest Rate United Kingdom Base RateSource: Reuters EcoWin

Jan03

May Sep Jan04

May Sep Jan05

May Sep Jan06

May Sep Jan07

May Sep Jan08

May Sep0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Per

cen

t

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

USA Interest Rates

Bank of England Rates

Euro Zone Interest Rates

Page 11: Meltdown Monday

Too late to avoid a UK recession?

Overall index of consumer confidence, seasonally adjusted

UK Consumer Confidence and Base Interest Rates

Source: Bank of England and GfK Confidence Data

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct04 05 06 07 08

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Inde

x

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5Index of Consumer Confidence

Dotted line shows long term mean

Long run average

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00

Per

cen

t

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00Base Interest Rates

Page 12: Meltdown Monday

UK property woes

Annual percentage change in UK house prices

The Housing Recession Deepens

Source: HBOS and Nationwide Data

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Per

cen

t

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Nationwide

Halifax

Page 13: Meltdown Monday

Stocks and Mortar

FTSE 100 index (bottom pane) Average UK house price (top pane)

The Housing Boom Ends - Will Shares Follow?

Source: Reuters EcoWin

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

Inde

x

3000

3500

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4500

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5500

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7000FTSE 100

80000

100000

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£s

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

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200000House Prices