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COAL-TO-GAS POWER PRICE RATIOS AT MAJOR TRADING HUBS

The Platts coal-to-gas power price ratios are used to asses the regional competitiveness between coand gas generation at the major power trading hubs. The ratio is dened as the coal $/MWh dispatcprice divided by the gas $/MWh dispatch price; gas generat ion is more competitive than coal whenthe ratio is a ratio greater than one and vice versa. All price data is for prompt month fuel contract

Source: Platts daily OTC coal prices and M2MS gas prices

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

04-Ja03-Dec04-Nov07-Oct09-Sep11-Aug14-Jul

SPP SouthPJM WestMISO Indiana

ERCOT NorthCAISO SP15Threshold

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NORTHEAST AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

04-Jan02-Jan30-Dec28-Dec26-Dec23-Dec

NYISO Zone J

NYISO Zone G

NYISO Zone A

NEPOOL Mass Hub

NORTHEAST PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

30

40

50

60

70

80

Feb-18Nov-17Aug-17May-17Feb-17Nov-16Aug-16May-16Feb-16

East NY ZnJ East NY ZnG West NY ZnA Mass Hub

NORTHEAST PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-20

0

20

40

60


NYISO ZnJ/NYISO ZnGNYISO ZnG/PJM WestNYISO ZnG/NEPOOL Mass Hub

NEPOOL Mass Hub/PJM WestNYISO G/NYISO A

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PJM/MISO AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-8

-4

0

4

8

12


MISO IndianaMISO Minnesota

PJM AD HubPJM NI HubPJM West Hub

PJM/MISO PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

30

40

50

60


PJM AEP/Dayton PJM NI Hub MISO Ind. Hub PJM West

PJM/MISO PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


PJM West/MISO Ind. HubPJM West/PJM AD Hub

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ERCOT AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


Houston Hub

South Hub

West Hub

North Hub

ERCOT PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


ERCOT - HoustonERCOT - West

ERCOT - South

ERCOT - North

ERCOT PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


North Hub/West HubNorth Hub/North Hub

Houston Hub/South HubHouston Hub/North Hub

F+"($&1( Q"+1#W1+1$4 I)*/(1+ )C KO:a $) #&)*/, >6UO:aA;!% C)&

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12/18

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CAISO AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

5060


NP15 SP15 ZP26

WESTERN PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

15

20

25

30

35

40


SP15 NP15Mid-C Palo Verde

WESTERN PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

Source: Platts

($/MWh)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1012


SP15/Palo Verde SP15/NP15 SP15/Mid-C

$B.2 B.D@9 9@29@42: D,2C E@I45E

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13/18

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J77G1@4L

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14/18

MEGAWATT DAILY NEWS/PRICINGCOMMENTARY/MARKET FUNDAMENTAWEDNESDAY,JANUARY6,2016

Copyright 2016McGraw Hill Financial

NORTHEASTPOWERMARKETS

NYISOSUPPLYMIX(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage

Category 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan %Share Chg % Chg Min Max 2016 2015 Chg %C

Total Generat ion 357.41 343.89 355.59 338.49 338.53 83% 0.04 0.0% 31 1.78 3 92.47 349.31 388.17 -38.8 6 - 10.0

Gas 105.13 127.48 108.28 127.69 168.14 41% 40 .45 32.0% 82 .53 173.1 114.74 144.01 -29.2 7 - 20.0

Coa l 15 .69 19.3 19 .13 18.7 27 .48 7% 8.78 47.0% 5.69 28.48 14.95 26.62 -11.6 7 - 44.0

Nuc lear 134.67 134.67 134.67 134.67 134.67 33% 0 0.0% 94 .43 1 34.67 128.98 132.83 -3.85 -3.0

Other 150.71 107.36 139.95 118.01 79.13 19% -3 8.88 -33.0% 71 .69 2 03.64 148.34 188.56 -40.2 2 - 21.0

ISONESUPPLYMIX(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage


Total Generat ion 279.49 267.47 268.9 270.14 297.43 80% 27 .29 10.0% 24 2.61 3 36.95 280.65 305.36 -24.71 -8.0

Gas 108 104.85 109.72 113.49 130.72 35% 17 .23 15.0% 85 .39 1 52.29 117.75 113.03 4.72 4.0

Nuc lear 97.8 97 .8 97 .8 97 .8 97 .8 26% 0 0.0% 90 .83 97.8 96 .69 97.24 -0.55 -1.0

Coa l 21 .2 21 .4 23 .53 20.58 39.92 11% 19 .34 94.0% 11 .76 54.56 19.29 31.62 -12.3 3 - 39.0

Wind 6.4 11 .65 14.32 7.5 8.82 2% 1.32 18.0% 1.64 16 7.47 6.34 1.13 18.0

Other 101.34 86.07 80.55 86.23 94.09 25% 7.86 9.0% 76 .34 1 26.18 93.97 123.98 -30.0 1 - 24.0

ISONE-NYISOINTERTIETRANSMISSIONE-W

ISONE&NYISOLOADPERDEGREE

NYISOTEMPERATURE

ISONE&NYISONUCLEARGENERATIONOUTAGES

ISONETEMPERATURE

Source:Platts (Averageda ilytemp0F)

Source:Platts

ISONEPOWERBURNVS.GASBASIS

Seasonsare de fine das :Summer(June-August),Fa ll (September-November),Winter(December-February),and Spring(March-May). Source:Platts

Source :NRC

Source:ISONE

Source :CustomWeatherSource:CustomWeather


15/18



PJM/MISOPOWERMARKETS

PJMSUPPLYMIX(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage


Total Generat ion 1,95 0.1 1,95 3.57 2,02 2.34 2,04 0.58 1,99 1.31 100% -4 9.27 -2.0% 1,66 2.71 2,15 8.01 1,99 8.9 2,39 6.8 3 - 39 7.9 3 - 17.0

Gas 425.94 417.15 413.74 420.63 475.11 24% 54 .48 13.0% 37 4.44 4 75.11 424.26 376.02 48.24 13.0

Coa l 76 5.08 773.55 813.6 820.79 774.85 39% -4 5.94 -6.0% 57 4.61 8 62.99 768.1 1,03 5.0 3 - 26 6.9 3 - 26.0

Nuc lear 800.65 800.65 800.8 800.25 801.11 40% 0.86 0.0% 71 5.98 8 01.11 773.36 780.96 -7.6 -1 .0

Other -41.57 -37.77 -5.8 -1 .09 -59.75 -3% -5 8.66 5382.0% -109.27 1 51.43 33.18 218.1 7 - 18 4.9 9 - 85.0

MISOSUPPLYMIX(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage


Total Generat ion 1,82 2.42 1,77 9.21 1,78 1.43 1,78 0.03 1,82 3.19 102% 43 .16 2.0% 1,60 1.6 1,94 2.23 1,79 3.15 1,95 8.3 7 - 16 5.22 -8.0

Gas 355.32 294.65 297.98 317.43 355.47 20% 38 .04 12.0% 27 0.35 4 48.56 350.38 311.18 39.2 13 .0

Coa l 82 3.9 741.6 793.27 829.9 818.68 46% -1 1.22 -1.0% 70 0.66 9 44.04 828.05 1,07 8.2 4 - 25 0.1 9 - 23.0

Nuc lear 300.7 300.36 297.16 303.6 304.94 17% 1.34 0.0% 16 9.98 3 10.07 287.78 288.63 -0.85 0.0

Wind 148.66 253.95 214.57 132.56 93.03 5% -3 9.53 -30.0% 23 .75 2 53.95 140.47 124.35 16.12 13.0

Other 159.26 143.35 138.79 154.62 211.02 12% 56 .4 36 .0% 11 3.3 214.71 154.95 140.15 14.8 11 .0

PJM/MISOCOAL-TO-GASDISPATCHPRICERATIOS

PJM&MISOLOADPERDEGREE

PJMTEMPERATURE

PJMPOWERBURNVS.GASBASIS

MISOGENERATIONMARKETSHARE-GASVS.WIND

MISOTEMPERATURE

Source:Platts

Source:Platts Source:Platts

(Averageda ilytemp0F)


Source :Platts



16/18



SOUTHEASTPOWERMARKETS

ERCOTSUPPLYMIX(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage


Total Generat ion 892.38 890.04 912.75 851.68 907.06 100% 55 .38 7.0% 76 2.15 968.45 841.35 886.0 8 -4 4.73 -5.0

Gas 370 371.36 362.07 339.76 366.83 40% 27 .07 8.0% 25 8.26 415.54 319.53 331.6 2 -1 2.09 -4.0

Coa l 37 9.89 379.69 386.66 364.2 384.73 42% 20 .53 6.0% 33 5.42 408.03 364.32 384.7 6 -2 0.44 -5.0

Nuc lear 123.33 123.33 123.33 123.33 123.33 14% 0 0.0% 87 .57 123.33 100.67 123.2 5 -2 2.5 8 - 18.0

Wind 54.15 79.82 44.1 58 .92 50.11 6% -8 .81 -15.0% 30 .87 300.07 134.79 94.58 40.21 43.0Other -34.99 -64.15 -3.4 -34.52 -17.93 -2% 16 .59 -48.0% -242.3 45 .82 -77.96 -60.2 4 -1 7.72 29.0

SOUTHEASTCOAL-TO-GASDISPATCHPRICERATIOS

ERCOTLOADPERDEGREE

ERCOTTEMPERATURE

ERCOTPOWERBURNVS.GASBASIS

ERCOTGENERATIONMARKETSHARE-GASVS.WIND

SOUTHEASTTEMPERATURE

Source:Platts

Source:PlattsSource:Platts

(Averageda ilytempF)


Source :Platts

Source:CustomWeather Source :CustomWeather


17/18



SPPPOWERMARKETS

SPPGENERATIONMIX(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage


Total Generat ion 707.83 670.82 673.3 672.9 744.57 -- 71.67 11.0% 59 .02 744.57 656.63 645.06 11.57 2.0

Coa l 40 0.7 360.46 380.31 382.55 411.29 55% 28 .74 8.0% 26 .1 417.99 324.17 375.28 -51.1 1 -1 4.0

Natural Gas 176.91 137.38 133.22 137.85 172.72 23% 34 .87 25.0% 13 .47 241.62 138.86 127.21 11.65 9.0

Wind 43.53 87.82 76.21 68.24 71.02 10% 2.78 4.0% 12 .24 205.52 109.73 79.73 30 38.0

Nuc lear Power 62.36 62.42 62.43 62.44 62.4 8% -0 .04 0.0% 5.2 62 .52 60.63 60.01 0.62 1.0Hydro 23.86 22.68 21.13 21.82 27.14 4% 5.32 24.0% 1.54 27.14 22.8 2.79 20.0 1 7 17.0

Diese l 0.49 0.04 0 0 0 -- 0 0.0% 0 0.77 0.43 0.05 0.3 8 7 60.0

SPPCOAL-TO-GASDISPATCHPRICERATIOS

SPPTEMPERATURE

SPPPOWERBURNVS.GASBASIS

SPPGENERATIONMARKETSHARE-GASVS.WINDSPPLOADPERDEGREE

Source:Platts

Source:Platts Source:Platts

SPPACTUALWINDGENERATIONVS.FORECAST

(Averageda ilytempF)

Seasonsare de fine das :Summer(June-August),Fa ll (September-November),Winter(December-February),and Spring(March-May). Source:SPP

Source :Platts

Source :SPPSource:CustomWeather


18/18


WESTPOWERMARKETS

CAISOGENERATIONMIX(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage


Total Generat ion 597.15 562.72 564.82 551.87 598.67 -- 46.8 8.0% 54 2.2 651.87 600.46 581.1 19 .36 3.0

Thermal Power 269.89 243.1 251.99 238.86 289 48% 50 .14 21.0% 17 8.42 3 15.07 252.37 239.49 12.88 5.0

Nuc lear Power 54.76 54.68 54.64 54.61 54.62 9% 0.01 0.0% 10 .67 54.76 51.54 51.45 0.09 0.0

Hydro 32.67 33.95 35.31 34.34 37.6 6% 3.26 9.0% 26 .39 44.78 34.16 32.82 1.34 4.0

PowerImports 149.76 143.4 152.23 148.65 157.38 26% 8.73 6.0% 14 1.29 2 01.13 168.36 181.34 -12.98 -7.0SolarPV 33.64 33.25 24.95 21.08 13.53 2% -7 .55 -36.0% 13 .53 35.3 27 .75 23.79 3.96 17.0

SolarThermal 3.29 3.26 0.11 0 2.76 -- 2.76 0.0% 0 3.29 1.72 1.22 0.5 41 .0

Wind 15.99 14.24 8.62 17.56 8.32 1% -9 .24 -53.0% 2.62 70.96 28.92 14.86 14.06 95.0

Bio+Geo 37.15 36.85 36.98 36.77 35.45 6% -1 .32 -4.0% 33 .58 37.19 35.63 36.13 -0.5 -1 .0

BPAGENERATION,LOAD,andTRANSMISSION(GWh/d)Dailychange Season Seasonaverage


Total Generat ion 316.16 304.94 313.56 309.81 306.02 -- -3.79 -1.0% 36 .98 3 59.55 297.07 333.88 -36.8 1 - 11.0

Hydro 201.59 194.7 204.92 209.95 208.22 68% -1 .73 -1.0% 24 .07 221.9 185.72 259.08 -73.3 6 - 28.0

Thermal Power 98.35 96.65 96.84 98.77 97.69 32% -1 .08 -1.0% 12 .87 1 01.89 84.96 55.57 29.39 53.0

Windpower 16.22 13.59 11.8 1.08 0.11 -- -0.97 -90.0% 0.03 94.39 26.38 19.23 7.15 37.0

Load 191.16 190.03 197.03 203.27 192.81 -- -10.46 -5.0% 26 .14 2 03.27 167.99 158.54 9.45 6.0

Net Exports 125.02 114.91 116.59 106.58 113.22 -- 6.64 6.0% 10 .84 1 80.26 129.01 175.07 -46.0 6 - 26.0

YEAR-TO-DATE

WEST

POWER

BURN

WESTERN

NUCLEAR

GENERATION

OUTAGES

CAISOTEMPERATURE

BPA

AC

LINE

TRANSMISSION

FLOWS

N-S

BPA

DC

LINE

TRANSMISSION

FLOWS

N-S

BPATEMPERATURE

Seasonsare de fine das :Summer(June-August),

Fa ll (September-November),

Winter(December-February),

and Spring(March-May).

Source:CAISO&BPA

Source:NRC

Source:Platts

Source :BPA

Source :BPA


Documents

Megawatt Jan 6