Maximising Portfolio Opportunities for Commercial …...LHW Partnership LLP •Luminous House, 300 South Row, Milton Keynes, MK9 2FR •Tel: 01908 993 750 •E-mail: [email protected]

LHW Partnership LLP • Luminous House, 300 South Row, Milton Keynes, MK9 2FR • Tel: 01908 993 750 • E-mail: [email protected] • Web: www.lhwp.co.uk

Maximising Portfolio Opportunities for Commercial & Large Scale PV

Rooftop Systems.

James Hoare CEng MIET MEI ESOS Lead Auditor

Partner LHW Partnership LLP

Associate Consultant BRE National Solar Centre - Grid


� The Grid Connectivity Challenge.

� The relationship between export capacity PV

kWp size – is it as bad as it may appear?

� The opportunity to maximise PV size with grid capacity constraint.

� The importance and value of Quality Assured installations for maximising yields.

Maximising your Projects Potential given network constraints


� Private Engineering Consulting Services Practice est 2013.

� Specialising in PV, Heat Pumps, Wind & Energy Management.

� Before establishing in 2013, PV experience since y2000 (poachers turned gamekeepers).

� Represent BRE National Solar Centre at Distribution Generation Industry at ENA DNO Grid connection workgroups.

� Presenters previous pre PV background in Power Generation, Transmission & Distribution since 1982. (CEGB, GEC , ESB International & PB Power)

LHW Partnership LLP – About Us


PV Thermal Inspection

We also fly Drones….(legally)


The Electricity Supply Sector is Going…..


� 1881 The Worlds First Public Electricity Supply & UK’s first Renewable Electricity (Hydro) project in Godalming Surrey (Sir William Siemens), followed quickly by Chesterfield, Norwich, Holborn Viaduct (Thomas Edison) and then1000s more globally.

� 1926 CEGB established with a Nationwide synchronised 132kV network, with 400kV introduced in 1965 based around centralised power stations and decentralised demand customers.

The Grid Connectivity Challenge

Overarching Strategy was a centralised energy generating policy

to get energy from large power stations to demand customers.


� 1881 The World’s First Public Electricity Supply & UK’s first Renewable Electricity (Hydro) project in Godalming Surrey (Sir William Siemens), followed quickly by Chesterfield, Norwich, Holborn Viaduct (Thomas Edison) and then1000s more globally.

� 1926 CEGB established with a Nationwide synchronised 132kV network, with 400kV introduced in 1965 based around centralised power stations and decentralised demand customers.

The Grid Connectivity Challenge

Overarching Strategy was a centralised energy generating policy

to get energy from large power stations to demand customers.


The Dawn of Renewables

� As part of 1989 Electricity Act introduced the NFFO (Non Fossil Fuel Obligation) a precursor to the Renewables Obligation).

� The first tranche was October 1990 with a number of projects mainly Wind, Landfill Gas, Straw/Poultry litter & Hydro. (No PV)

Connecting these to the distribution network was not complicated, as though the network was designed for consumers, local demand allowed for a degree of localised generation.

Wind Straw/Poultry Litter Landfill Gas Hydro


Between 1990 and Today - the natural innate capacity of the DNO’s networks for Distributed Generation has gradually been absorbed to a point today where there are major capacity constraints emerging on the grid.

2015

1990

The Dawn of Renewables


Solar PV

� First Grid tied PV System(s) were connected in 1994.


The UK PV Industry Year 2000

� Total PV connected capacity c1MWp.

� No FIT’s or ROCs (nor in Germany).

� Large project was typically 12kWp.

� G83 not in existence.

Largest UK PV programme at the time:

BP Solar Project Sunflower, a 1098 kWp programme covering canopies on 76 UK petrol stations from 1996 to 2002.


� Total PV connected capacity April 2015 c8GWp (8000 MWp)

� Circa 700,000 DNO grid connected Installations

� A large project is now 50-60 MWp

� At peak PV output in July 2015 a sunny weekend day will meet c15% of UK early afternoon national demand

(UK demand data - source gridwatch.templar.co.uk)

The UK PV Industry Year 2015


What is Causing Capacity Constraint?� Grid network was not designed for distributed generation.

� Existing connected generation projects.

� Future projects with connection agreement and being built.

� Projects with connection agreements yet to be built that may not have planning, or may be being procrastinated on by developer (capacity hoarding).

� Lack of timely grid development in line with DG growth(policy)


What is Network & Export Constraint?

When the potential amount of locally generated electricity has reached a level when the DNO cannot accept any more without breaching its Licence conditions & ESQCR – a constraint may be needed.

Demand Customers – lower grid volts.

Distributed Generation Customers – raise grid volts.

The highest grid voltages occur at weekends in Summer when consumer demand is lowest (also time of maximum PV generation).

The principal static solutions are:

�impose an export constraint to limit the export of energy.

�Upgrade the network to accommodate the requirement.


When is Export Limiting Reinforcement Required?

Currently The Electricity Regulator Ofgem’s regulations means that the cost of network reinforcement for Distributed Generation Projects is generally paid for by generator and not bill paying customers (DUOS). The DNOs have to enforce this.

This is why there are some £huge connection costs appearing for DG projects.

E.g. £16 million to connect a 250kWp project in East Anglia.


ESQCR (key issue)

Electricity Safety Quality & Continuity Regulations.

Principal Stakeholders

Reportable by Members of public, Meter operators, distribution and

transmission companies , generators and suppliers.

Key aspect in context:

The DNO is licenced and legally bound to provide phase voltage to customers at 230V +/- 10% (i.e. between 207 & 253V).


ESQCR

European Harmonisation of Grid Supply voltages to promote fair competition.

Range of voltages 220V

230V 240V (UK 240V)

Harmonized Voltage

of 230V +/- 10%

UK was on higher end of spectrum, and closer to 253V upper limit – inadvertent consequence less headroom.


White Goods built to work to ESQCR limits

For European Harmonisation all electrical appliance are designed to work between 207 & 253V.


DNO can be prosecuted if for example a fire was found to be caused by providing to a voltage outside ESQCR regulations.

For European Harmonisation all electrical appliance are designed to work between 207 & 253V.

White Goods built to work to ESQCR limits


A hypothetical example to show the impact of export constraint, and options of how to manage the impact..

A Portfolio of 17 Hotels in London

all with some roof space that can

can accommodate PV.

Including todays venue location .

Portfolio can accommodate

1000 kWp on the portfolio

(58 kWp average per site).

Tower Bridge Hotel estimate

110kWp (rough..).


Grange Hotel Portfolio- A hypothetical Example Portfolio can accommodate

Portfolio Size 1000kWp

Installed Cost per kWp - £900 including prelims

Average Year0 yield 975 kWh/kWp

Estimated consumption

80% used on site

20% export

Performance Ratio Good

I.R.R Good

No planning permissions needed

Only grid approval needed…..


ENA Connection Application sent to DNO

for 100kW export generation connection.

A few weeks later the DNO responds with 17 Connection offers along the lines of

“You can connect a system to export 100kW at Tower Bridge Hotel – However due to the level of existing and consented

DG connections in the Tower Bridge area network upgrade costs in the order of £2,500,000 will be required , or you can

connect a system that can export 20kW with no additional reinforcement needed.”

NB Figures Entirely fictitious and fabricated.

Grange Hotel – Tower Bridge 110kWp


What do you do?



What do you do?

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What do you do? (more like)

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✔✗✗✗

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But what do you do?


The key things you need to assimilate are:

�Appraise onsite energy demand profile with granular detail.

�Correlate the relationship between the Generator Capacity and real time generation (E.g. PV kWp v kW output).

Key Simple Equation:

Exported Energy = Generated energy – site demand

If there is a DNO constraint the generation has to be reduced to

stay within the constraint.



Site Demand Profile

�Energy Bills �Ideally Half Hourly data�Perfection is real time data�If no information do an “Energy Audit”�Anticipate energy reduction measures

NB EU Directive (ESOS) for Organization >£30m PA Turnover or

250 employees will require energy performance reporting by

December 2015



Do annual / monthly yield and other such models help when there is

an export constraint?

Yes a little bit, but in reality not very much

Solar Generation Profile



The performance can be modeled on projected hourly yields.

(Orientation(s) Pitch, shading all make data this location specific)


100% of Max



The performance can be modeled on projected hourly yields.

(Orientation(s) Pitch, shading all make data this location specific)


100% of MaxAverage yearly

operating

Generation



Key Graph – derived from simulated Hourly Generation110 kWp PV 100KVA Max Generation,

30kW min onsite load, 20 kW Export constraint

90% of Max



Even with a heavy export constraint –

decent generation levels are possible

PV Array Size 110kWp

Unconstrained Generation c107,000 kWh

With 30 kW minimum demand & 20 kW Export Constraint

Constrained Generation 97,000 kWh

Percentage of Max possible yield at least 90%

Findings


With the evolving technology there are a number of practices & innovations – some DNO controlled, but some can be controlled

by site owner

DNO Initiatives

�Numerous early stage including active network management

Client Controlled (not always so easy if a landlord/tenant )

�Reduce size of Generating technology

�Change consumption profile to match generation profile�Install (or plan for accommodating) on site energy storage

(electricity)�Install heating technology that can run on electricity

Can this “at least 90%” be improved ?


Key Factors� A degree of sensitivity / contingency is required when

modeling as both solar generation and on site demands are intermittent and will vary day on day and year on year

� The more consumption information the better – Half hourly data, and a thorough energy consumption profile is helpful. (The more demand info the better)

� Generally site appliances are becoming more efficient -so future energy demands may decrease with new technology

� DNO future Workplans will facilitate variable export schemes.


The Challenge ahead we faceTo rebuild the grid will cost too much we need to be SMART


Export Limiting Example 11.2 MWp Zero Export PV Rooftop –Vegetable Storage Cambridgeshire 2013

� Large Onsite Demand

� Large Wind farm next door had absorbed available generation capacity

� Zero Export , still facilitated 95% of max possible generation

� Local DNO has since approved an active network connection so nearly 100% yield


Export Limiting Example 2250 kwp PV Tracker - Northamptonshire

� 200kW Export limit

� Single Axis trackers & Module optimizers improve yield by 25%

� Extra yield offsets additional cost of tracker in 8 years


Conclusions from Modeling

� Projects with on site demand are prerequisite

� Modeling with constraints is more complex than the historic

normal of no constraint and model conservatively

� If you are modeling with historic Half Hourly consumption data remember this is historic and not assured year on year

� 1 kWH is not necessarily 1kW for 1 hour

� Allow contingency, and be cautious not bullish with energy

yield and consumption projections (consumption devices are getting better)

� If in doubt seek professional and impartial advice -


Improving Yields – by Improved Quality


The best analogy to portray quality range of UK installations



Lots of reasons for variance but predominantly

�Lack of technical standards above 50kWp.�Massive almost untenable peaks & troughs in work plans.�Too much pressure to cut install costs to maintain R.O.I.�Lack of Engineering expertise and discipline in UK



A lot of focus on the Bankability and Tier status of the principal

capital equipment supply chain

•PV Modules •Inverters



Probably less focus than needed on the more mundane and

less visible aspects

�Quality Assurance/Control of Sub contractors�Minutia …. Like attention to correctly made PV Connections�Intelligent Design�HV Transformers & Switchgear �System loss verification

In context that PV generators have a 20/25 years lifespan



In last 12 month we have encountered:-

�Poor / dangerous PV Connections �Panels on roof installed but inadvertently not connected�Incorrect inverter settings�Under rated AC cable causing inverter tripping in summer�Poor or missing documentation�Lack of performance monitoring�No routine inspection & maintenance

However good the PV modules , framing and Inverters are – poor installation will always impact on Yields in the long run



� Launched April / May 2015.

� Overcomes the lack of technical standards above 50 kWp.

� Covers ALL PV Systems.

� Developed by IET & BRE NSC.

The IET PV Code of Practice


� Likely to adopted for Government Contracts.� Represents a higher performance standard.� Reduces technical risk.� Provides independent assurance.

Implemented by � Training scheme for installers.� Technical performance specifications.� Installations to be assessed against the IET CoP – UKAS

link.

The IET PV Code of Practice


PV has been mistakenly marketed as a technology that is “Fit & Forget”.

Of the 700,000 Installations in UK, the yield and compliance could be improved on a significant %, and the cost of improving should justify the expense in a large proportion, in the context of a 20 – 25 year revenue stream.

Monitoring, Inspection & Testing Technology

Example

�250 kWp array - yields good, client happy, no concerns.

�3 out of 50 strings were found not to be working.

�6% (14MWh) per annum yield loss – easy connector fix.


An array in East Anglia where seemingly the seagulls gather to gossip and eat Kentucky Fried Chicken scraps.

2 Infra Red & IV String Tests.

Morning 100kWp had reduced to 85kWp in 1 year...

Lunchtime Total PV array Clean by specialist contractor.

Afternoon 85kWp had become 100kwp again.

Additional 13,000 kWh of yield per annum

Example– Commercial 100kWp Array


Inspection technology has moved a long way in the last few years. It is now easier to verify installations after the scaffold has been removed.

In Particular

�Portable PV String Testing.�Cable loss determination.�Aerial Visual & Infra Red imaging.�Underground CAT cable Scanning.�Sophisticated monitoring systems

The knowledge that you can be now found out and “the

once the scaffold is down , no one will know mentality” is possibly over – should help drive quality improvements.

Monitoring, Inspection & Testing Technology

Module Warranty voided

By incorrect clamping


Operating in an export constrained market, is obviously less desirable than with unlimited grid capacity - But a grid that has evolved over 130 years cannot be rebuilt overnight, and we are where we are ……

With many financial, technical, commercial and policy challenges ahead - it is one of the most challenging and yet also exciting eras in the electricity generating industry for well over 100 years.

If the next 20 years is as exciting as 1880 it is going to be interesting as there is a lot to be done to move away from

an fossil fuel dominated economy.

Conclusions


Concluding Quotes from Thomas EdisonThe founding Father of Distributed Generation (1847-1931)

� Genius is 1% Inspiration & 99% perspiration.

� I have not failed, I’ve just found 10,000

ways that wont work.

� When you have exhausted all possibilities –

remember this - “you haven't”

Thank you

for listening.

Documents

Maximising Portfolio Opportunities for Commercial …...LHW Partnership LLP •Luminous House, 300 South Row, Milton Keynes, MK9 2FR •Tel: 01908 993 750 •E-mail: [email protected]