MASTERCARD ADVISORS INFORMATION SERVICES … · content, including estimated forecasts of spending trends, (i) do not in any way contain, reflect or relate to actual MasterCard operational

©2013 MasterCard - No reproduction or sharing without express written consent of MasterCard©2015 MasterCard - No reproduction or sharing without express written consent of MasterCard

MASTERCARD ADVISORS INFORMATION SERVICES

SPENDINGPULSE ANDSECTOR INSIGHTS

Sarah Quinlan

©2015 MasterCard - No reproduction or sharingwithout express written consent of MasterCard

TM

©2015

mobile.icsc.org

©2015 MasterCard - No reproduction or sharing without express written consent of MasterCard 3©2015

POWERED BY MASTERCARD ADVISORS

© 2015 MasterCard International Incorporated. All rights reserved.

MasterCard SpendingPulse™ and MasterCard Sector Insights™ reports and content, including estimated forecasts of spending trends, (i) do not in any way contain, reflect or relate to actual MasterCard operational or financial performance, or specific payment-card-issuer data; and (ii) are solely for informational purposes and shall not be relied upon by any person for the purpose of investment or other financial decisions.

Disclosure



US Gasoline Prices

Gasoline prices have recently

rebounded, but still are

29.8% lowerthan

last year.

Source:SpendingPulse™

-40.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

1-M

ay-1

5

24

-Apr-

15

17

-Apr-

15

10

-Apr-

15

3-A

pr-

15

27

-Mar-

15

20

-Mar-

15

13

-Mar-

15

6-M

ar-

15

27

-Fe

b-1

5

20

-Fe

b-1

5

13

-Fe

b-1

5

6-F

eb

-15

30

-Jan

-15

23

-Jan

-15

16

-Jan

-15

9-J

an-1

5

2-J

an-1

5

26

-Dec-1

4

19

-Dec-1

4

12

-Dec-1

4

5-D

ec-

14

28

-Nov-1

4

21

-Nov-1

4

14

-Nov-1

4

7-N

ov-

14

31

-Oct-

14

US Average Regular Gasoline Price/Gal Y/Y Change in Gasoline Average Price/Gal



US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth(ex. Auto)

Total Retail sales declined by -0.3%

year-over-yearin April.

Excluding gasoline, total

retail sales grew by 3.4%.


-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

No

v-13

De

c-13

Jan-1

4

Feb

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Apr-

14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-1

4

Aug-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-14

De

c-14

Jan-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Apr-

15

US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto



US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth(ex. Auto+ex.Gas)

Total retail sales softened a bit in

April, much due to the early Easter

and the late arrival of Spring weather.


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

No

v-13

De

c-13

Jan-1

4

Feb

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Apr-

14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-1

4

Aug-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-14

De

c-14

Jan-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Apr-

15

US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto x-Gas



US Y/Y Small Business Sales Growth

Small Business Retail xGas sales

grew by 7.5%year-over-year

in March.Including

gasoline, retail sales grew by

6.5%.


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

No

v-13

De

c-13

Jan-1

4

Feb

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Apr-

14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-1

4

Aug-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-14

De

c-14

Jan-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-1

5

US Y/Y Small Business Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto xAuto - xGas



Regional US Y/Y YTD Total RetailSales Growth (ex. Auto)

-10% +10%-5% 0% +5%

Northeast

Mid-Atlantic

Southeast

Pacific

Mountain

South Central

Great Plains North CentralGreat Plains North Central

5.8%

6.8%

14.5%

2.3%

3.7%

-1.4%

Region Yr/Yr Sales

Growth

Share of

Total Sales

April 2015

Northeas t

Mid-Atlantic

Southeas t

North Centra l

South Centra l

Great Pla ins

Mountain

Paci fic

-4.8%

-1.6%

5.0%

-3.5%

1.1%

13.7%

13.2%

15.3%

12.7%

18.0%

Total retail sales continue to show negative growth for the Northeast

Region.




US Sector Performance

Hardware, led retail sales

sectors, while experiential spending on restaurants

continued its strong results.


SectorsYear-over-Year

April 2015

Leading

Hardware +9.4%

Restaurant +7.3%

Electronics & Appliances +5.8%

Lagging

Jewelry (4.6%)

Department Stores (6.1%)

Luxury excl. Jewelry (6.3%)



US Automotive Repairs and TiresY/Y Sales Growth

US Automotive repairs and tires

declined reflecting stronger new

car sales.


-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%



US Auto Sales

The number of cars sold has

increased over 40% from early

2010.

Source: Various publiclyavailable sources

Units in millions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

US Auto Sales Annualized SA



U.S. Housing Turnover

The recent improvement in

housing statistics is a positive for future spend on home related

sectors.

Source: Various publiclyavailable sources

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Housing Turnover Y/Y Growth



US Hardware Y/Y Sales Growth

Hardware sales grew by 9.4%

year-over-year in April. The

consumer is spending on

repairs from the harsh winter.


-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%



US Appliance Y/Y Sales Growth

Appliance sales declined by -3.3% year-over-year in April. This reflects the weakness in housing sales,

versus the increase in

renters.


-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%



US Furniture and Furnishings Y/Y Sales Growth

Furniture & Furnishings

combined sales grew by 2.6%

year-over-year in April.


-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Furniture Y/Y Sales Growth Furnishings Y/Y Sales Growth



US Consumer Airlines Y/Y Sales Growth

Consumer Airline Ticket sales grew

by 0.9% year-over-year in

April. The consumer

continues to spend on travel.


-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Airlines Y/Y Sales Growth Airlines Y/Y Price Index Growth



US Consumer Lodging Y/Y Sales Growth

Lodging sales grew by 3.4%

year-over-year in April. This reflects

the continued focus on

experiences by the consumer.


-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Lodging Y/Y Sales Growth Lodging Y/Y Price Index Growth



US Restaurant Y/Y Sales Growth

Restaurant sales grew by 7.3%

year-over-year in April. This is the 3rd consecutive

month of over 7% growth.


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Restaurant Y/Y Sales Growth



US Grocery Y/Y Sales Growth

Grocery sales declined by -3.7% year-over-year in

April. Some of this reflects an early Easter, but more importantly the

consumer is dining away from

home.


-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Grocery Store Y/Y Sales Growth



US Fast Casual, Casual Dining and Quick Service Restaurants Sales

Restaurant segment year-

over-year growth rates in April:

Casual Dining: +6.6%

Fast Casual: +13.9%

Quick Service: +6.6%


0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Casual Dining Y/Y Sales Growth Fast Casual Y/Y Sales Growth Quick Service Y/Y Sales Growth



US Total Apparel Y/Y Sales Growth

Specialty Apparel sales declined by -0.9% year-over-

year in April. Apparel had

improved recently, but the early

Easter hurt April sales.


-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Apparel Y/Y Sales Growth Apparel Y/Y Price Index Growth



US Footwear Y/Y Sales Growth

Footwear sales declined by -4.7% year-over-year in April. This reflects the early Easter.


-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Footwear Y/Y Sales Growth Apparel Y/Y Sales Growth



US Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth

Jewelry sales declined by -4.6% year-over-year in April. This is the

first negative growth rate in25 months.


-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth



US Luxury excl. Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth

Luxury sales declined by -6.3% year-over-year in

April. This continues the

difficult results for this sector, showing the

challenges of the stronger dollar.


-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Luxury excl. Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth



US Luxury Goods & Accessories Total Sales

The larger retailers in luxury

are capturing market share.

Source: Sector Insights™

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Sales Index 3 Month Moving Average (Sales Index)



US Department Store Y/Y Sales Growth

Department Store sales declined by -6.1% year-over-

year in April.


-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Department Store Y/Y Sales Growth



US eCommerce YTD Sales Growth

eCommerce sales share of total retail sales is 6.7% YTD in retail 2015, as growth remains in the single digits.


0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2015 YTD20142013201220112010

US eCommerce Share of Total Retail Sales US eCommerce YY Growth



US eCommerce Sector Performance

Children's Apparel, Family

Apparel, and Electronics were

the leading eCommerce

sectors for the month of

April 2015.


SectorsYear-over-Year

April 2015

Total eCommerce +8.4%

Leading

Children’s Apparel +31.7%

Family Apparel +19.9%

Electronics +19.2%

Lagging

Department Stores (0.6%)

Jewelry (4.8%)

Footwear Apparel (8.7%)



US Sectors eCommerce Shares vs. Brick & Mortar

eCommerceShare of total retail sales is

6.7% and sector shares are

remaining stable.




US Dept. Stores eCommerce vs Bricks & Mortar

Department Store eCommerce sales declined by -0.6% year-over-year in

April. Despite continued focus,

this channel is not gaining favor.


-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

US Dept Store eCommerce YY Sales Growth US Dept Store Brick & Mortar Y/Y Sales Growth



UK Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth(ex. Auto)

Total Retail sales declined by 0.9% year-over-year in April, reflecting an

early Easter.


-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

UK Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth - Nominal, Not Adjusted



Canada Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (ex. Auto)

Total Retail sales grew by 1.6%

year-over-year in March, as the

impact of lower oil prices impacted

spending.


-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Canada Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto



Brazil Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth


year-over-year in March. But the overall trend

remains negative.


-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Brazil Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (Volume of Sales)



Hong Kong Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth


year-over-year in March, which

shows that the consumer is not

back inHong Kong.


-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Hong Kong Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (Nominal Not Adjusted)



Hong Kong Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth

Jewelery sales declined by 12.4%

year-over-yearin March.


-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Hong Kong Jewellery Y/Y Sales Growth (Not Adjusted)



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Sarah [email protected]

(914) 249 – 2069

www.mastercardadvisors.comLearn more at:

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MASTERCARD ADVISORS INFORMATION SERVICES … · content, including estimated forecasts of spending trends, (i) do not in any way contain, reflect or relate to actual MasterCard operational