Marketing Analytics current and emerging trends

Marketing Analytics:current and emergingtrends2009 Survey Results

Lane Clark & Peacock LLP

For further information about how LCP’s Marketing Analytics

team can add value to your business please contact

Glenn Granger or John Dawson in our London office,

or the partner that normally advises you.

For further copies of the report, please download a

copy from our website www.lcp.uk.com or contact

Charlotte Woods on +44 (0)207 439 2266.

This report may be reproduced in whole or in part, without

permission, provided prominent acknowledgement of the

source is given.

© Lane Clark & Peacock LLP October 2009

Lane Clark & Peacock LLP (LCP) is an

award winning firm of Actuaries and

Consultants that specialises in providing our

clients with practical, bespoke and robust

analytical solutions.

LCP’s Marketing Analytics team offer clients

a unique blend of marketing knowledge,

business consulting experience and analytical

skills that can help clients meet the challenges

of the modern marketing environment.

The team have over 25 years of experience

working in 30 countries and across industry

sectors such as Consumer Packaged Goods,

Electronics, Telecoms, Automotive,

Financial Services and Pharmaceuticals.

UK Professional Pensions Awards

FT Business Pensions &Investment Provider Awards

Corporate Adviser Awards

Actuarial Consultancy of the Year 2005 | 2006 | 2007Investment Consultancy of the Year 2007

Actuarial Consulting 2007 | 2008Investment Consulting 2007 | 2008

Best Member Communication Strategy 2008Best use of Technology by a Corporate Adviser 2008

Best Strategy for Investment Advice on Pensions 2009

Marketing Analytics: current and emerging trends

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Executive Summary

Introduction

A short history of Marketing Analytics

The picture today

The picture for the next three years

Emerging priorities

Conclusions

Meeting these challenges - LCP’s point-of-view

About LCP Marketing Analytics

Welcome to the results of the first ever LCP Marketing Effectiveness Survey. We conducted this

survey in the first half of 2009 as economic turmoil was sweeping all the major economies and the

results of the survey reflect a shifting set of priorities for marketers across all sectors of the economy.

Clearly businesses are more concerned than ever before in ensuring that investments in sales and

marketing operations are as efficient as they can possibly be. However, a new emerging priority

based around risk management has started to emerge and marketers need to learn how to respond

to this challenge.

I would like to thank all the respondents for their contributions that have made this report possible.

All feedback received has been treated in the strictest of confidence.

This survey is one element of our ongoing research and dialogue with senior marketing decision

makers and their stakeholders.

We very much hope that you will enjoy reading through these results. Please feel free to give me a

call to discuss any aspect of this survey or to find out more about our services.

Yours sincerely,

Glenn GrangerPartner, LCP Marketing Analytics

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Executive Summary

Marketing Analytics concepts emerged over one hundred years ago. Yet it is only in thelast 10-20 years that marketers have been able to productively measure marketingeffectiveness across the majority of marketing activities. Lane Clark & Peacock setsout to assess the current state of Marketing Analytics and to understand whetherrecent economic events were having an impact on attitudes to the discipline.

The results of this survey demonstrate that not only have the majority of marketers nowadopted “Fact-based” techniques but that their key reason for adopting thesetechniques is a need for greater certainty of outcome, including understanding thelevel of risk and reward at stake within various activities. In particular our survey showsthat:

• For 90% of organisations, improving the return on investment (“ROI”) frommarketing spend had been a key priority over the last three years. Over the nextthree years 95% of organisations intended that this would be a priority.

• However, just 14% of organisations have a high level of satisfaction with theirunderstanding of the level of incremental revenue or return on investment due to aparticular aspect of marketing activity.

• Measuring the effectiveness of marketing has been a priority for 76% oforganisations in the last 3 years – in future 95% of organisations surveyed werelooking to prioritise this.

• More companies are looking to reduce volatility from marketing returns – 71% inthe next three years compared to 55% over the past three.

• 79% of respondents felt that marketing risk was a core concern for corporategovernance.

• Just 17% of organisations are satisfied that they have enough understanding as tothe picture they have of the variability of revenues.

These findings together with others in this document suggest that there is somedissatisfaction amongst organisations over the level of insight they have overmarketing returns and in particular the degree of risk inherent within the marketingfunction.

Whilst our survey does reveal that no “one size fits all” approach can be developed totackling these challenges, we do believe that there are a number of options fororganisations looking to quantify the effectiveness of their sales and marketingoperations. Furthermore, we believe that by understanding the inherent risk withinvarious marketing plans, strategies can be developed that mitigate these risks andreduce an organisation’s exposure to uncertainty.

View a full list of our services at www.lcp.uk.com

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Introduction

The survey was carried out in the UK in the first half of 2009. The participants came from awide range of industry sectors and varying marketing roles.

In addition to interviews with marketing experts, we also conducted a number of in-depthinterviews with finance directors to add a financial perspective.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Banking, Insurance& Finance

Media, Publishing& Communications

Household Products& Appliances

Food, Drink & Tobacco

Motor Vehicles

Retailing/Wholesaling

Energy & Utilities

Tourism & Travel

24%

14%

12%

10%

10%

10%

7%

7%

6%Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Marketing Director/Head of Marketing

Marketing Manager

Brand/Product Manager

Sales/Sales & Marketing/Business Development

Marketing/Global/Business Planning

Head of Campaigns/Direct Marketing/

Marketing Communications

17%

40%

10%

14%

7%

7%

5%Other

% respondents


% respondents


View a full list of our services at www.lcp.uk.com4

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A short history of Marketing Analytics

Marketing Analytics started in the late 1890s with the emergence of catalogue-basedshopping in the United States. Over the next century it was slowly refined until, by the mid1960s, organisations such as Kraft Foods were using statistical modelling techniques toimprove their understanding of marketing effectiveness. During the 1980s and 1990s, theincreasing availability of Electronic Point of Sale (“EPOS”) meant that more and morebusinesses were able to take advantage of these techniques. As the availability of EPOS datawas increasing, so media owners were also meeting demand for data by starting to introducea range of metrics such as TV ratings or press circulation figures. Today, almost allorganisations that sell products or services to the mass market are able to take advantageof advances in data availability to measure the effectiveness of their marketing activitiesaccurately.

It is against this background that Lane Clark & Peacock wished to evaluate the current stateof Marketing Analytics to determine the degree to which businesses were now able to takeadvantage of the potential opportunities this breadth of data offered them.

The survey results that follow show that:

• adoption of basic Marketing Analytics techniques is now reasonably widespread butmarketers are still searching for ways to improve their understanding of which marketingactivities work and which don’t.

• the current economic climate is focusing attention on the return on investment frommarketing activities. This appears to be accelerating a long-term trend to embrace factsand data in decision-making.

• the most exciting aspect of the research reveals a number of interesting trendssuggesting that new topics such as marketing risk management are emerging as keyconcerns for a number of organisations. This is really at the cutting edge of marketingthinking and, in our opinion will be the next big wave of innovation in Marketing Analytics.

We hope you enjoy this summary of the survey results.

This survey has revealed that behind the drive for more

measurability is the overarching need for greater

certainty of outcomes.

Glenn Granger, Partner, LCP

“”

THE PICTURE TODAYThe vast quantities of data that exist within the modern corporation enableorganisations to perform an impressive array of analyses. Our survey asked

about the priorities and the types of analysis that are routinely used.

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The picture today

We started our survey by asking participants what their recent priority areas were in relationto Marketing Analytics. Our results show that almost all organisations prioritise being able tomeasure some aspects of their marketing activities.

There are a large number of techniques that organisations can employ to optimise theeffectiveness of their marketing programmes. We asked companies which initiatives they hadundertaken over the last three years.

Improving the return oninvestment from marketing spend

Optimising the mixof marketing activities

Improving the accuracy & qualityof sales & marketing forecasting

Measuring the effectivenessof marketing activities

Testing new marketing media& routes to market

Minimising the volatility ofreturns from marketing activities

90%

88%

76%

76%

71%

55%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Customer ormarket segmentation

Change inmarketing strategy

Identification & validationof the most appropriate

marketing metrics

Modelling & prediction ofindividual customer behaviour

Benchmarking against competitormarketing performance

Econometric modelling of marketingactivities & revenue impacts

95%

79%

71%

64%

50%

36%

% respondents undertaking named activity

% respondents indicating that the area was a key priority over the last three years

Of the marketers who measured marketing effectiveness, there is little agreement on whichmetrics were most useful for planning purposes. Whilst the top response was the “Return onInvestment” metric, the long list of alternative answers demonstrate that no “magic bullet”metric exists that suits all organisations equally.

0% 10% 20% 30%

Return oninvestment

Number of customersacquired/growthin customer base

Year on yearcomparisons of

revenues

17%

10%

7%

0

20

40

Less than 5

10%10%

0

31%

26%

10%

14%

5 6 7 8 9 10 - of ‘criticalimportance’

30

10

% respondents identifying specified metric as the most useful for planning purposes(only metrics scoring 7% or above are included in chart)

% of respondents scoring the importance of having certainty of return on investment from the marketing programme

Rating (1-10 scale)


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97

We asked our respondents how important it was for them to be certain about the returnon investment they could achieve from the marketing programme and associatedspend. Using a scale of 1-10, where 1 equals not at all important and 10 of criticalimportance, 81% put the figure at 7 or more. This emphasis on the need for certaintyis reflected in the answers to other questions in our survey and appears to be one of themost clearly emerging priorities in marketing analytics.

79% of respondents felt that marketing risk was a

crucial concern for corporate governance. This has

huge implications for the way that marketing operations

are conducted.

John Dawson, Consultant, LCP

“”

THE NEXT 3 YEARSThe marketing environment never stops evolving. In this section we wanted tounderstand how this evolution would impact marketing professionals and the

types of analysis they think they will need.

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SMarketing Analytics: current and emerging trends

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The picture for the next three years

Having evaluated the recent priorities and adoption of techniques, we then askedorganisations how they felt their future needs would differ from their current needs.

Marketers’ key priorities over the next three years –% respondents declaring area a priority


Optimising the mix ofmarketing activities



Testing new marketing media & routes to market

Minimising the volatility of returnsfrom marketing activities

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

90%95%

88%98%

76%88%

76%95%

71%86%

55%71%

Past three years Next three years

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

More measurability/better metrics

Development of enhanced onlineexpertise/capability/more web spend

More marketing spend/campaigns

Better insight into effect ofspecific activities/channels

Better understanding/targeting of consumers

Nothing specific/need to do it all better

30%

17%

13%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

More creativity

More research

More testing of different channels

Areas for change to enhance effectiveness (% respondents – only scores > 7% included)

When we asked respondents who were less than highly satisfied with the effectivenessof their marketing programmes which aspects of their marketing programmes they wouldmost like to change to enhance effectiveness, we got the following responses:

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Clearly, marketers have good intentions for the next three years. All areas look to be increasingpriorities. When we asked respondents what aspect of the marketing programme they wouldmost like to change to enhance effectiveness, many answers followed a common theme ofbetter measurability:

This survey has revealed that behind the drive for more measurability is the overarchingneed for greater certainty of outcomes.

17%

4%

79%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Yes

No

Don’t know/refused

Is the revenue impact from different activities variable and uncertain? (% respondents)

“Consistency of approach and creativity. We don't measure

enough of what we do.”

Marketing Director

“Measurement and tracking ofmarketing performance. Our systems don't allow us to do

so now, but we are upgrading, so will be able to in the next

18 months.”

Head of Campaigns

“Be able to have more transparencyaround different channels. Better

insight into comparison of different types of marketing channels and their impact on

revenue and profit.”

Director of Marketing

“Need more certainty on ROI… need to improve metrics.

Need to understand whether we need to do as much

marketing as we do and spend what we do. Need to know

what to do.”

Head of Customer Marketing

Clearly there is little agreement beyond a common desire for more measurability, but thekey theme is more knowledge of what works and a wish to see greater understanding ofthe outcomes from marketing activities. The reason for this is quite clear and is shown inthe chart below - there is an overwhelming belief that the revenue impact from differentmarketing activities is variable and uncertain.

We see an insight gap developing – professionals know

that they need to measure both effectiveness and risk.

However they are clearly unsatisfied with their current

level of ability whilst desiring even more predictability of

outcome.

Glenn Granger, Partner, LCP

“”

EMERGING PRIORITIESEstablishing the key priorities for organisations helps us to better understandhow to meet the needs of sales and marketing professionals. In this section

we explore how these priorities are developing.

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What are the newest emerging priorities?

In a competitive marketplace, organisations cannot afford to stand still, and recent economicturmoil has created even greater pressure for marketing teams to deliver improvedperformance. Two related trends offer hope for marketing teams wishing to meet thesechallenges head on:

• better data: new technologies have created huge opportunities for collecting data oncustomer behaviour and the marketing stimuli to which customers have been exposed.

• new platforms: new technologies have created a range of new marketing opportunitiesthat would have been unthinkable just a decade ago – examples include paid searchadvertising, personalised mailshots, on-demand online digital television channels andsocial media channels.

The availability of better data offers marketing analysts a wide range of opportunities to improvetheir understanding of what consumers want and need. As data quantity and reliability hasincreased, so analysts have developed new techniques to extract value from this data.

Whilst each of these trends presents opportunities on their own, the combination of the twoprovides marketers with an unprecedented opportunity to predict and meet the needs of theircustomers.

Looking at the feedback we received from the survey, it is clear that in many aspects,organisations believe that they have successfully adopted a wide range of techniques.However, there are two key areas that they regard as requiring the greatest increase in priority– namely minimising the volatility of returns from marketing activities and measuring theeffectiveness of marketing activities. The root of this is the desire for more certainty ofoutcomes. The following chart shows the percentage increase in an issue being a priority inthe future compared to the issue being a recent priority.


Optimising the mixof marketing activities



Testing new marketing media & routes to market

Minimising the volatility of returnsfrom marketing activities

6%

11%

16%

25%

21%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

% change in priority status – past three years to next three years

highest priorities


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Our survey participants revealed that the two areas where they expected to see the greatestchange in their priorities for the next thee years over the previous three were in themeasurement of the effectiveness of marketing activities and in acquiring the ability tominimise the associated volatility of returns from marketing activities.

1. Measurability: this is still a key issue for many which, although partially addressed, canbe improved further. This will lead to greater transparency and better decision-making.

2. Minimising volatility of returns: volatility is a key issue. There is a huge risk thatoutcomes are uncertain and little agreement about what to expect from investment inmarketing. In a separate question, we asked respondents what the "likelihood of placinga higher level of emphasis on concepts such as “risk” and “uncertainty” within marketingplanning" was over the next three years. Two-thirds (67%) responded that it was "fairly"or "very" likely, indicating that these concepts are likely to be addressed in the near future.

The changes that organisations are focusing on for the future represent an even greaterdesire for understanding the effectiveness of their marketing activities and a belief that morecan be achieved in the field of Marketing Analytics than has been accomplished to date.

Our survey has revealed a fascinating gap that exists between the perceived benefits of both"understanding of incremental revenue/ROI due to a particular marketing activity" and "apicture of the variability of potential revenues" versus the satisfaction that organisationscurrently have with their operations in these areas. The size of this gap in these areas is highlysignificant.

This acknowledgement that better risk insights would benefit the company was validated bythe agreement we received from 67% of respondents that the “application of a greater focuson risk within our marketing function could improve our decision making and enhance theeffectiveness of the overall marketing programme”.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

An understanding of the levelof incremental revenue/

ROI due to a particular type of marketing activity

A picture of the variabilityof potential revenues 17%

14%

52%

76%

% of respondents scoring 8-10 (on a 1-10 scale)

Satisfaction with the current level of insight

Perceptions of the benefits of having specific insight

Insight Gap

Insight Gap

161614 View a full list of our services at www.lcp.uk.com

Marketing Analytics: current and emerging trendsE

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

National Press

Direct Mail

Public relations

Exhibitions & trade shows

Sponsorship

Online/website

Advertising ‘in general’

18%

15%

15%

12%

9%

9%

9%

Mass marketing channel Direct marketing channel

Throughout the Lane Clark & Peacock survey, the topics of measurability and risk/uncertaintyemerged as two key areas for the future.

Marketing strategies may be risky. Indeed the majority of participants in our survey (57%)agreed that “marketing is inherently risky”. And 79% believe that “it should be a core part ofa company’s corporate governance obligations”. This is clearly an issue that will be part of thelandscape in the coming years.

If marketing is itself a risky business, it is interesting to understand whether this is purelycreative risk or whether the risk is also inherent in the planning process. According toparticipants in our survey, 79% believed that certain marketing activities were inherently morerisky than other activities, suggesting that marketing planning is at least as important asmonitoring of creativity in order to manage risks. However, there was little, if any, agreementabout which marketing activities were more risky, suggesting it is business or industry-specificand that no “one size fits all” approach can be applied to risk management.

Marketing is inherently risky

The concepts of ‘risk’ & ‘uncertainty’are not given a high level of focus

in our marketing plans

The application of a greater focus on risk within our marketing function

could improve our decision making & enhance the effectiveness of the overall

marketing programme

The management of sales & marketing risk should be a core part of a company’s

corporate governance obligations

57%

60%

67%

79%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

% of respondents “agreeing” or “strongly agreeing” to the statements

% of respondents nominating specific marketing activity as areas where the revenue impactis seen to be more volatile than others (only items scoring greater than 9% are included)

What is most interesting about this list of specific marketing activities was that from ourperspective the traditional media channels didn’t register with advertisers as beingsignificantly more volatile and less predictable in their outcome than direct and digitalchannels. Given that the latter channels sell themselves as being both more predictable inoutcome and more certain, we find this a surprising but significant insight which suggeststhat advertisers do not need to shy away from traditional advertising channels in order todeliver greater predictability of outcome in results.



1715

“The measurability of what is working [is what we’d most like to change so that we] have some control…

it seems to be a big black hole into which we fling things.”Marketing Manager

“It is something fairly new….we don’t do it enough I think… we talk about it… and then say ‘well that won’t

happen… so we are ok. I came from a company before where athird of our budget process was actually risk assessment… I

would say it is probably 5-10% here, at the most.”

Finance Director

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Conclusions

Marketing Analytics is now an established business process for many, if not themajority, of organisations that we surveyed. Clearly the increasing use of theseMarketing Analytics techniques has created a degree of confidence within themarketing profession regarding the average returns that can be earned throughmarketing. However, experience is showing that averages are not enough. It isincreasingly seen as important to gain a better understanding of the volatility ofoutcomes as well. This need is being driven by the desire for certainty of outcomes,and the marketing community is planning to squeeze more insight from the data byincreasing measurability in the quest for more certainty.

The key findings from our survey are:

• No “one size fits all” strategy exists in tackling the volatility of outcomes problem;the multitude of options available to marketers means that there is no single “bad”marketing channel that can be removed from the marketing mix.

• Participants believe that the introduction of risk reduction strategies leads to betterplanning decisions being made.

• The majority of participants feel that marketing risk is a crucial concern forcorporate governance.

The changing nature of the modern economy has led marketers to look again at theinsight that they are able to generate from the data that they have available and to askwhether that same information can help them address yet more fundamentalquestions.

The good news for marketers is that the tools do exist to answer the questions theyare asking, and can largely be addressed with the data that is available to them. Inparticular, risk-based analysis can help organisations measure the volatility ofoutcomes that their marketing plans produce.

The next few years will see the use of new tools that help organisations fine-tune theirmarketing plans to increase certainty of outcomes for their organisations.

Whilst certainty of outcome is always an important objective, the current economicclimate makes it an even more important consideration.

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View a full list of our services at www.lcp.uk.com 17

Meeting these challenges – LCP’s point-of-view

Many organisations believe that the introduction of "risk-based" thinking into marketingcould bring great benefits. Whilst almost all acknowledge that risks are inherent withinmarketing, few understand the implicit trade-offs that they make between risk andreward. As our survey has demonstrated, there is a strong belief amongst marketingprofessionals that some marketing activities are riskier than others. It follows that if thisis the case, then some strategies (a combination of actions) are riskier than others. Bydetermining the trade-off between risk and reward, organisations are able to make aninformed choice of the strategy that is right for them.

There are a number of relatively simple ways to introduce risk-based thinking into thebusiness planning process. These include:

Actuarial Analysis: actuaries draw upon a range of advanced statistical andsimulation techniques in order to assess risks and mitigation strategies. Actuaries canhelp both measure risk and suggest strategies that mitigate these risks across a rangeof issues.

Monte Carlo simulations: these techniques attempt to simulate risk by using historicdata to try to estimate the likely volatility that an activity might generate. There are anumber of simple software packages available that can be used to conduct basicMonte Carlo simulations. However, if the business is complex, use of thesetechniques requires a skilled analyst to help create and manage the mathematicalmodels that drive these simulations.

Scenario planning: simply by asking the question as to what the worst, average andbest forecasts are for the effectiveness of an individual event or series of activities,businesses can begin to get an idea about just how risky these activities might berelative to one another. Scenario planning ranges in complexity and effort from thebasic Q&A approach to a more formal Delphi workshop evaluation of risk.

For further advice on how your organisation can adopt risk-based thinking, pleasecontact Glenn Granger on +44 (0)20 7432 6708 to discuss these or any other issues.

Risk vs. Reward

Risk

Rew

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Trade-off frontier

Less risky but lower reward

More risky but greater potential



LCP

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About LCP Marketing Analytics

LCP’s Marketing Analytics team offers clients a unique blend of marketing knowledge,business consulting experience and analytical skills that can help clients meet thechallenges of the modern marketing environment.

The key benefits to our clients of using the marketing analytics process are:

• Measuring the Return on Investment from Sales & Marketing activities.

• Driving higher sales and profit by optimising future Sales & Marketinginvestments.

• Quantifying the Net Present Value of future Sales & Marketing investments.

• Calculating the probability that you will achieve sales targets.

• Quantifying the “worst case” sales forecast and therefore the “revenue at risk”.

• Improving effectiveness by quantifying and managing the trade off between riskand return in Sales & Marketing.

Survey methodology and participation

The research was completed through a programme of telephone interviews,conducted among companies located in the UK, by an independent market researchagency.

Interviews were targeted at those sectors that tend to have the most significantadvertising spend and marketing budgets. Survey participants therefore came fromleading companies in a wide range of consumer-focused sectors, including banking,insurance and finance, media, publishing and communications, household productsand appliances, motor vehicles, retailing and food and drink.

Each of our 42 survey respondents confirmed that they were personally involved indecision-making about the effectiveness of their company’s marketing programme and60% were also involved in the process of sales revenue forecasting. The seniorcorporate personnel participating in the survey included Heads of Marketing,Marketing Managers and Brand/Product Managers. In some organisations, ourrespondents had a Planning, Communications or dual Sales & Marketing focus.

The survey was conducted within The Market Research Society Code of Conduct.



19



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Actuarial Consulting 2007 | 2008Investment Consulting 2007 | 2008

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The firm is not authorised under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 but we are able in certain circumstances to offer a limited range of investment services to clients because we are members (as defined

under the Act) of the Institute of Actuaries, a Designated Professional Body. We can provide these investment services if they are an incidental part of the professional services we have been engaged to provide.

All rights to this document are reserved to Lane Clark & Peacock LLP. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part, without permission, provided prominent acknowledgement of the source is given.LCP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC301436. LCP is a registered trademark in the UK (Regd. TM No 2315442) and in the EU (Regd. TM No 02935583).

All partners are members of Lane Clark & Peacock LLP. A list of members’ names is available for inspection at 30 Old Burlington Street W1S 3NN, the firm’s principal place of business and registered office.

The firm is regulated by the Institute of Actuaries in respect of a range of investment business activities. LCP is part of the Alexander Forbes group of companies, employing over 4000 people internationally.

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Documents

Marketing Analytics current and emerging trends