Market Outlook 160812

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 160812

1/17


2/17

www.angelbroking.com

Market OutlookAugust 16, 2012

Result Reviews

Hindalco (CMP:`120/ TP:-/ Upside :-)

Hindalco reported disappointing standalone 1QFY2013 results as both top-lineand bottom-line were below our estimates due to weaker-than-expected

profitability from its copper segment. Hindalcos net sales remained flat yoy to

`5,964cr (below our estimate of `7,265cr). In aluminium segment, alumina

production remained flat at 335kt whereas aluminium metal production declined

by 5.7% yoy to 132kt. The downstream sales, however, increased by 16.0% to

58kt. Aluminium segment net sales declined by only 1.5% yoy to`2,063cr despite

the LME aluminium prices declining by 23.8% yoy in USD terms due to higher

mark up of value added downstream products and higher metal premium. In

copper segment, copper cathode production declined by 5.5% yoy to 69kt whereas

CCR production grew by 5.8% yoy to 36kt. Copper segment net sales grew by

0.8% yoy to`3,972cr.

On the operating front, aluminium segment EBIT decreased by 54.9% yoy to

`270cr due to decrease in realizations coupled with increase in fuel and power

costs. Copper segment EBIT also declined by 47.8% yoy to `76cr. Overall,

Hindalcos EBITDA declined by 46.6% yoy to `463cr and EBITDA margin slipped

674bp yoy to 7.8% during 1QFY2013. Interest expenses grew by 22.1% yoy to

`81cr. Other income grew by 69.4% yoy to`301cr due to receipt of dividend from

its subsidiaries. Consequently, net profit declined by only 34.1% yoy to `425cr

(significantly below our estimate of `508cr). The company has reported no

changes in the status of its projects from its previous update of May 2012.

Novelis Inc. (Hindalcos 100% subsidiary) also reported its 1QFY2013 results. Net

sales declined 18.1% yoy to $2550mn due to decline in realizations as well as

volumes. Shipments declined 5.9% yoy to 722kt during the quarter. EBITDA also

fell by 13.4% to $258mn due to lower shipments and lower scrap benefits.

EBITDA/tonne declined 4.43% yoy to $357. The companys PAT, however, grew

substantially by 46.8% yoy to $92mn mainly due to lower tax provisions in this

quarter.

FY2013E 83,212 9.0 2,617 13.7 7.9 8.8 0.7 5.8 0.5

FY2014E 91,057 9.9 3,455 18.1 9.6 6.7 0.6 5.3 0.5

Nalco (CMP:`54 / TP:-/ Upside :-)

Nalco reported better than expected 1QFY2013 results. Net sales grew marginally

by 0.9% yoy to `1,718cr (slightly above our estimate of `1,666cr). Raw material

costs as a percentage of net sales stood at 14.3%, compared to 10.3% in

1QFY2012. Further, power costs as a percentage of net sales stood at 35.2%,

compared to 27.7% in 1QFY2012. Hence, EBITDA declined by a massive 42.6%yoy to `304cr and EBITDA margin contracted by 1,287bp yoy to 17.7%. Other

income, however, grew by 10.8% yoy to `140cr. Consequently, net profit


3/17



decreased by 40.8% yoy to `223cr (significantly above our estimate of `167cr).

FY2013E 8,474 12.6 660 2.6 5.5 21.1 1.2 9.4 1.2

FY2014E 9,024 16.2 924 3.6 7.5 15.1 1.1 7.0 1.1

HDIL (CMP:`86 / TP:`115 / Upside: 34%)

HDIL reported across the board disappointing set of numbers with revenues

coming 60% below our expectations at`201cr (down 60%yoy and 68% qoq)

for the quarter and EBITDA coming in at`158cr, which was 45% below than our

expectations. We believe that the current weakness in the revenues will not

continue in the coming quarters as we expect Mumbai property volumes to pick up

over the coming quarters given the recent clarity over the DCR rules, which should

lead to more launches in the city. HDILs reported PAT came in at `105cr (down

50% yoy, 66% qoq) down from our expectation of`202cr. Given the expected pick

up volume activity

FY2013E 2,441 55.1 943 22.7 8.8 3.7 0.3 5.6 3.1

FY2014E 3,344 48.2 1,106 26.6 9.4 3.2 0.3 4.8 2.3

mara Raja Batteries (CMP:`364/ TP:`389 / Upside: 7%)

Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) posted an impressive 32.2% yoy (3.2% qoq) growth

in its top-line to `694cr. The top-line growth was led by strong volume growth in

the industrial (UPS) and automotive (replacement) battery segments. During

1QFY2013, operating margins witnessed a 431bp yoy (303bp qoq) expansion to

17.2% led by 362bp yoy (flat qoq) decline in raw-material expenses. Raw-material

expenses declined on account of 22.5% yoy (5.6% qoq) decline in lead prices.

However, benefits from decline in lead prices were restricted due to INRdepreciation. As a result, operating profit jumped 76.4% yoy (25.3% qoq) to

`120cr. Led by strong operating performance and significant increase in other

income (at`6cr vs.`1cr in 1QFY2012), net profit registered a substantial 95.1%

yoy (30.5% qoq) growth to`76cr.

Due to better-than-expected 1QFY2013 performance, we have revised our

earnings estimates upwards for FY2013/14E by 8.1%/7.6% due to upward

revision in top-line and operating margins. Post the run-up in the stock price

(~21% over the fortnight) the stock is trading at 10.3x FY2014E earnings.


4/17



FY2013E 2,844 15.5 269 31.5 28.7 11.5 2.9 6.5 1.0

FY2014E 3,213 15.5 302 35.3 25.4 10.3 2.4 5.5 0.8

Monnet Ispat reported its 1QFY2013 results. Net sales grew by 21.9% yoy to

`521cr mainly due to increase in realizations across most product categories

coupled with higher sponge iron and power sales volumes. However, raw material

costs as a percentage of sales increased to 62.0% in 1QFY2013 compared to

58.0% in 1QFY2012. Hence, EBITDA increased only 17.0% yoy to`136cr, while

EBITDA margin contracted by 109bp yoy to 26.1%. Interest expenses increased by

130.9% yoy to `31cr, while other income decreased by 50.9% yoy to `6cr.

Consequently, net profit decreased by 6.4% yoy to`69cr.

FY2013E 3,115 22.1 396 59.1 15.6 5.2 0.7 6.2 1.4

FY2014E 3,748 25.1 448 66.8 15.3 4.6 0.6 4.0 1.0

Simplex Infra

For 1QFY2013, Simplex Infras (Simplex) numbers came higher-than-expectations

on the revenue front but owing to higher interest cost, the performance at the

earnings level was in line with our estimate. On the top-line front, Simplex

reported robust growth of 28.1% yoy to `1,585cr, higher than our estimate of

`1,425cr (consensus `1,472cr). EBITDAM dipped by 30bp yoy to 8.0% for the

quarter, marginally lower than our estimate of 8.3%. Interest cost came at`70.0cr,

a yoy/qoq jump of 35.2%/2.3%, and higher than our estimate. PAT declined by

16.5% yoy to`20.0cr, in line with our estimate and consensus of`20cr and`19cr

respectively. At the end of the quarter, the companys order book stood at

`15,508cr (2.3x FY2013E revenue). Simplex had order inflow of `1,888cr for the

quarter.

FY2013E 6,732 8.1 116 23.4 9.2 8.7 0.8 6.4 0.8

FY2014E 7,837 8.4 127 25.6 9.3 7.9 0.7 5.9 0.7

Orchid Chemicals (CMP:`106, TP:`178, Upside: 68%)

For 1QFY2013, Orchid Chemicals posted results below expectations. On the sales

front, it grossed a turnover of`365cr, down by 11.7% yoy, and below expectations

of`500cr. On the operating front, the companys OPMs came in at very low 3.3%

V/s expectation of 17.0%. Consequently the company reported an adj. net loss


5/17



`46cr V/s a adj. net profit of`19cr during the last corresponding period.

FY2013E 2,117 17.7 118 16.7 9.5 6.4 0.6 5.7 1.0

FY2014E 2,434 17.7 157 22.2 11.5 4.8 0.5 4.7 0.8

S.Kumars Nationwide (CMP:`23, TP: -, Upside: -)

For 1QFY2013, S.Kumars Nationwide (SKNL) reported mixed set of numbers. On

standalone basis,the company's top line grew by 12.9% yoy to`884cr, in-line with

our estimate of`898cr for the quarter. The companys EBITDA margin improved

marginally by 66bp yoy to 21.2% for the quarter; however, it saw a dip of 275bp

on sequential basis, mainly because increase in raw material cost as a percent of

net sales from 69.7% in 4QFY2012 to 72.2% in 1QFY2013. During the quarter,

interest costs increased by 22.2% yoy to`107cr from`88cr in 1QFY2012, mainly

on account of increase in average cost of borrowed funds in line with the market

rate of interest. The depreciation for the quarter stood at `32cr, 52.1% yoy

increase. The tax outgo for the company in 1QFY2013 was`18cr with an effective

tax rate of 37.0%. Consequently, the companys profit saw a decline of 13.5% on

yoy basis and came in at to`31cr, 34.2% lower our estimate of`47cr.

On consolidated basis, SKNL reported 11.0% yoy increase in its topline to

`1,617cr with an operating margin of 19.7%, 34bp dip on yoy basis. However,

the company saw a decline in net profit by 26.6% on yoy basis and came in at

`65cr mainly due to higher interest outgo. On segmental front, the revenue from

ready to wear grew by 20.4% yoy to `219cr (182cr), luxury textile (primarily

comprising Reid & Taylor) grew by 14.4% yoy to `279cr (`244cr) and consumer

textile grew by 11.0% yoy to `605cr (`545cr). However, the revenue from

international business declined marginally by 1.3% yoy to`354cr (`359cr).

We remain positive on the company and expect the topline to improve with the

coming festive and wedding season, which is the major driver of sales. Also, the

company expects the raw material prices to ease in coming quarters which will

boost the operating margin. Though high interest rate remains a concern, but the

company expects it to ease, which will directly add to the net profit.

FY2013E 7,279 21.0 447 15.0 13.7 1.5 0.2 3.1 0.7

FY2014E 8,290 21.0 524 17.6 13.9 1.3 0.2 3.0 0.6


6/17



Finolex Cables (CMP: / TP: 60 / Upside: 46 )

Finolex Cables announced good set of numbers for 1QFY2013 results. Net sales

grew by 12.4% yoy to`518cr on back of strong sales in their electrical segment.

Electrical cables segment registered 21.4% yoy growth in revenue to`456cr. While

their other two segments communication cables and copper rods division

continued their poor run witnessing only 8.3% yoy growth and 32.9% yoy decline

in revenue. EBITDA increased by 41.6% yoy to `49cr on back of higher revenue

and margin expansion. EBITDA margin expanded by 194bp yoy to 9.5% on back

of lower raw material costs. Raw material cost as a percentage of sales declined to

73.0% in 1QFY2013 compared to 79.3% in 1QFY2012. PAT increased by only

24.1% yoy to `25cr due to higher forex loss, lower other income. Other income

declined by 72.6% yoy to `2cr while forex loss increased by 237% to `6cr.Pat

margin also increased by 45bp yoy to 4.8%.

FY2013E 2,334 8.8 117 7.6 13.7 5.3 0.7 2.2 0.2

FY2014E 2,687 9.3 156 10.2 16.1 4.0 0.6 1.5 0.1

Electrosteel Castings (CMP-`19, TP: -, Upside : -)

Electrosteel Castings 1QFY2013 net sales increased marginally by 2.2% yoy to

`428cr. However, the EBITDA declined by a massive 79.4% yoy to `11cr andEBITDA margin contracted 1,035bp yoy to 2.6% due to huge surge in other

expenditure which grew 69.1% yoy to `137cr. The company reported an

exceptional item related to forex loss of`46cr in 1QFY2013, compared to`0.3cr

in 1QFY2012. Consequently the company reported a net loss of`17cr, compared

to net profit of `28cr is 1QFY2012. However, excluding exceptional items,

adjusted net profit grew by 1.9% yoy to`29cr.

FY2013E 1,984 11.2 70 2.0 4.2 9.4 0.4 9.1 1.0

FY2014E 2,074 12.6 93 2.7 5.5 7.1 0.1 8.0 1.0

Cravatex (CMP:`599/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Cravatex reported poor set of numbers for 1QFY2013. Top line came 30.8%

higher yoy and stood at `57cr, in line with our estimate of`59cr. Rise in top-line

was on account of healthy growth of 60% in domestic sales which compensated

the revenue dip of 37% from international segment. On operating front, EBITDA

dip marginally by 0.8% yoy and came in at `2.7cr, lower than our estimate of`3cr. EBITDA margin came in at 4.7%, lower by 150bps yoy due to substantial

increase of 99bps yoy in other expenses as percentage of sales. Owing to poor

operating performance, net profit for the quarter was lower by 15% yoy at `1.6cr,


7/17



against our estimates of `2.4cr.

FY2013E 289 5.2 11 41 18.2 14.8 3.7 12.1 0.6FY2014E 340 6.0 15 57 21.2 10.6 2.8 9.0 0.5

Economic and Political News

Government to soon announce new guidelines to revive SEZs India's exports dip 14.8% to US$22.4bn in July July inflation down at 6.87% from 7.25% m-o-m Core inflation numbers offset July data: expertsCorporate News

India Cements eyes South Africa, Lanka markets for exports LIC prunes stake in ACC by about 3% Maruti to resume production at Manesar next weekSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


8/17

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

August 16, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Aug 11 361.00 365.00

US Housing Starts Thousands Jul 760.00 757.00US Building permits Thousands Jul 760.00 768.00

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Jul 2.40 2.40

August 22, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions Jul 4.37 4.54

August 23, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Aug A 50.30 --

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Aug A 43.00 --

Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value Aug A (21.50) --

US New home sales Thousands Jul 350.00 365.00

August 24, 2012 UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q P (0.80) --

August 28, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100

Aug 65.90 --

August 29, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q S 1.50 --

August 30, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Aug 7.00 --

August 31, 2012 India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 2Q 5.30 --

September 01, 2012 China PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 50.10 --

September 03, 2012 India Imports YoY% % Change Jul (13.46) --

India Exports YoY% % Change Jul (5.45) --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 45.40 --

September 06, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Sep 6 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Sep 6 0.75 --

September 07, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul (4.30) --US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Aug 163.00 --

US Unnemployment rate % Aug 8.30 --

September 09, 2012 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Aug 9.20 --

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Aug 1.80 --

September 10, 2012 China Exports YoY% % Change Aug 1.00 --

September 12, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jul (1.80) --

September 13, 2012 US FOMC rate decision % Sep 13 0.25 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


August 16, 2012

Market Outlook


9/17

Market StrategyAugust 16, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly GD P trends

5. 9

7. 5

9. 8

7. 4

9. 48. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 010.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

(%)

Source: C SO , Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

3. 7 3. 42. 5

(5.0)

6. 0

2. 7

1. 0

4. 3

(2.8) (0.9)

2. 5

(1.8)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 8 10.0 9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 3 6. 9

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4 :M an ufacturing and services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Exports and imports growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Expo rts yo y g rowth Im p orts yo y g rowth(%)

Source: Bloomb erg, Ang el Research

Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


10/17

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 125 - 2,423 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 17.8 15.4 3.8 3.2 22.6 22.5 1.7 1.5

United Phosphorus Buy 120 170 5,555 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.0 7.1 1.2 1.0 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 364 345 3,107 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 12.5 11.1 2.9 2.3 26.0 23.3 1.0 0.8

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 88 99 4,418 13,412 15,041 11.0 11.0 11.5 14.2 7.7 6.2 1.3 1.1 18.7 19.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 23 30 6,106 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 10.5 8.4 1.9 1.7 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle Buy 345 430 521 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 9.3 8.0 1.9 1.6 21.2 21.3 0.6 0.4Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,691 - 48,945 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 15.6 13.9 6.5 5.2 46.1 41.3 1.9 1.7

Bharat Forge Buy 302 359 7,037 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.8 25.6 14.6 11.8 2.7 2.3 20.3 21.2 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Neutral 8,715 - 27,365 9,031 10,199 17.8 18.2 373.8 431.2 23.3 20.2 4.8 4.0 20.5 19.7 2.7 2.3

CEAT Buy 101 164 346 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.1 2.5 0.5 0.4 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 133 149 11,326 5,899 6,771 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.1 18.1 14.6 3.2 2.7 19.0 20.2 1.6 1.3

FAG Bearings Neutral 1,595 - 2,650 1,505 1,747 17.7 18.0 111.5 130.0 14.3 12.3 3.0 2.4 22.8 21.7 1.5 1.2

Hero Motocorp Buy 1,879 2,428 37,524 26,097 29,963 15.0 15.3 139.5 151.8 13.5 12.4 6.3 4.8 54.6 44.3 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 93 135 381 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 3.6 2.4 0.5 0.4 13.4 17.2 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 747 879 45,871 36,536 41,650 11.6 11.5 49.3 54.9 15.2 13.6 3.1 2.7 22.1 21.1 1.0 0.8

Maruti Neutral 1,184 - 34,194 42,887 49,079 5.5 6.6 66.8 87.6 17.7 13.5 2.0 1.8 12.1 14.1 0.6 0.5

Motherson Sumi Buy 168 216 6,594 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.6 9.4 3.0 2.4 26.2 28.4 0.5 0.4

Subros Buy 28 34 167 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.2 4.9 0.6 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 235 292 62,603 195,096 219,428 12.8 12.8 39.0 43.9 6.0 5.4 1.7 1.4 32.6 28.2 0.4 0.3

TVS Motor Accumulate 40 43 1,910 7,545 8,301 6.2 6.1 4.9 5.4 8.2 7.5 1.5 1.3 18.8 18.2 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 778 498 16,478 8,760 10,023 5.5 7.5 12.4 20.7 62.6 37.5 6.0 5.3 10.1 15.2 1.9 1.6BGR Energy Neutral 276 - 1,995 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 11.2 9.4 1.7 1.5 15.3 16.7 - 0.6

BHEL Neutral 232 - 56,723 47,801 43,757 19.4 19.8 25.7 23.9 9.0 9.7 1.9 1.7 22.7 18.3 1.1 1.0

Blue Star Neutral 192 - 1,731 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 20.0 11.9 3.9 3.2 20.7 29.7 0.7 0.5

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 117 128 7,502 12,691 14,096 7.0 8.5 6.5 9.1 18.0 12.8 1.9 1.7 11.1 14.2 0.6 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 39 67 319 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.6 2.9 0.5 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 59 69 1,512 6,858 7,431 7.5 8.3 9.0 11.5 6.5 5.1 1.2 1.0 26.9 27.2 0.3 0.3

LMW Accumulate 1,873 1,992 2,110 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 13.1 11.3 2.2 2.0 17.4 18.4 0.4 0.3

Thermax Neutral 495 - 5,896 5,514 5,559 8.9 9.6 26.9 28.4 18.4 17.4 3.2 2.8 18.4 17.1 1.0 1.0


August 16, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


11/17


12/17



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 394 436 5,843 5,067 5,998 2.1 2.3 105.6 111.0 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.6 16.3 - -

Dena Bank Buy 91 107 3,173 3,177 3,595 2.8 2.8 25.2 25.4 3.6 3.6 0.6 0.6 18.9 16.4 - -

Federal Bank Accumulate 427 459 7,308 2,697 3,171 3.4 3.4 47.9 58.0 8.9 7.4 1.2 1.0 13.6 14.7 - -

HDFC Reduce 703 671 105,894 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 22.3 18.6 4.5 4.0 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 608 - 143,284 21,936 27,454 4.4 4.4 28.7 36.0 21.2 16.9 4.1 3.4 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 969 1,169 111,391 22,356 27,157 2.9 3.0 68.7 82.0 14.1 11.8 1.7 1.6 14.2 15.5 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 86 101 11,026 7,952 9,876 1.9 2.2 18.5 23.6 4.7 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.8 14.7 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 174 190 7,465 6,294 7,191 3.4 3.4 40.6 44.9 4.3 3.9 0.7 0.6 18.1 17.4 - -

IOB Accumulate 72 80 5,762 7,473 8,732 2.5 2.5 16.7 22.6 4.3 3.2 0.5 0.5 11.8 14.4 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 922 1,026 4,471 2,625 2,921 3.6 3.5 194.4 191.9 4.8 4.8 0.9 0.8 21.2 18.0 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 253 279 12,745 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 12.0 8.9 2.0 1.7 17.5 20.4 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 235 278 6,865 6,518 7,458 2.8 2.9 61.3 65.1 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.5 15.2 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 732 950 24,831 20,116 23,625 3.3 3.4 152.8 173.9 4.8 4.2 0.9 0.7 18.2 18.0 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 23 27 2,610 1,514 1,717 2.8 2.7 4.0 4.2 5.8 5.5 1.1 1.0 20.5 18.5 - -

St Bk of India Buy 1,910 2,270 128,186 64,470 75,940 3.5 3.5 224.4 258.7 8.5 7.4 1.4 1.2 17.6 17.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 97 119 5,857 6,840 7,996 2.9 3.0 25.7 29.2 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.6 17.9 17.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 69 - 4,596 5,488 6,338 2.4 2.5 17.3 17.7 4.0 3.9 0.8 0.7 17.0 15.3 - -

Union Bank Buy 166 230 9,117 10,299 12,227 2.9 3.0 42.1 49.3 3.9 3.4 0.7 0.6 16.7 17.1 - -

United Bank Buy 55 79 1,975 3,634 4,194 2.8 2.9 18.2 23.0 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.4 15.0 16.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 53 - 2,602 2,579 3,028 2.1 2.3 8.8 11.6 6.0 4.5 0.7 0.6 11.1 13.3 - -

Yes Bank Buy 366 453 12,978 3,255 4,228 2.8 3.0 34.2 42.7 10.7 8.6 2.3 1.9 23.3 23.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,773 - 36,195 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 31.2 26.1 10.5 8.2 37.4 35.3 3.2 2.7Britannia Buy 464 633 5,539 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 22.4 16.9 8.7 6.5 42.7 44.3 0.9 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,184 - 16,098 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.3 34.6 41.0 34.2 28.9 31.5 23.9 99.5 94.1 5.2 4.5

Dabur India Neutral 122 - 21,323 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 27.4 23.6 11.3 9.0 43.2 41.5 3.5 3.0

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,784 - 11,708 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 26.7 22.5 8.3 6.7 34.4 32.8 3.4 2.8

Godrej Consumer Neutral 630 - 21,454 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 27.6 23.2 7.6 6.1 31.3 38.4 3.8 3.2

HUL Neutral 495 - 107,024 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 34.7 30.1 20.7 15.9 70.9 59.8 4.0 3.4

ITC Neutral 268 - 209,730 29,513 33,885 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.8 28.9 24.8 9.5 8.0 35.6 35.0 6.8 5.9


August 16, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


13/17



FMCG

Marico Neutral 190 - 12,214 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 28.5 23.3 7.6 6.0 30.0 28.8 2.7 2.2

Nestle* Neutral 4,454 - 42,940 8,610 10,174 20.9 21.2 114.8 139.8 38.8 31.9 23.4 16.3 71.2 60.3 5.0 4.1

Tata Global Neutral 134 - 8,280 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.9 20.2 17.1 2.1 2.0 8.6 9.5 1.1 1.0

IT

HCL Tech Accumulate 549 585 38,092 24,400 27,049 18.6 17.5 41.1 45.0 13.4 12.2 3.0 2.6 22.7 21.1 1.5 1.3

Hexaware Accumulate 119 133 3,522 1,947 2,161 22.0 21.4 11.4 12.1 10.5 9.8 2.7 2.3 26.4 24.0 1.5 1.3

Infosys Accumulate 2,330 2,530 133,793 39,151 41,743 31.6 31.9 161.9 174.5 14.4 13.4 3.4 3.0 23.8 22.1 2.8 2.5Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 180 187 2,000 1,889 2,065 18.0 17.5 18.0 19.7 10.0 9.1 1.4 1.3 14.5 13.7 0.7 0.6

KPIT Cummins Neutral 136 - 2,420 2,149 2,331 15.6 14.8 10.7 11.2 12.7 12.1 2.6 2.2 20.6 17.8 1.1 0.9

Mahindra Satyam Neutral 93 - 10,962 7,574 8,062 19.6 18.4 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.7 1.6 1.4 16.1 14.1 1.1 0.9

Mindtree Accumulate 646 708 2,631 2,341 2,513 18.6 17.1 66.5 70.8 9.7 9.1 2.1 1.7 22.3 19.3 0.9 0.8

Mphasis Neutral 394 - 8,279 5,704 6,009 18.6 17.7 36.0 37.1 11.0 10.6 1.5 1.3 14.0 12.6 1.0 0.9

NIIT Accumulate 35 40 577 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 4.9 4.0 0.8 0.7 16.7 18.4 0.3 0.2

Persistent Neutral 384 - 1,536 1,193 1,278 25.6 24.3 42.6 44.3 9.0 8.7 1.6 1.3 17.2 15.5 0.9 0.8

TCS Neutral 1,269 - 248,303 61,046 67,507 29.3 29.1 67.3 72.4 18.9 17.5 6.0 5.0 31.9 28.3 3.9 3.4

Tech Mahindra Neutral 816 - 10,417 6,148 6,434 18.4 17.6 91.8 97.6 8.9 8.4 2.1 1.7 23.4 20.2 1.7 1.5

Wipro Buy 355 420 87,423 43,492 48,332 19.4 19.3 25.1 28.0 14.1 12.7 2.6 2.3 18.6 18.0 1.7 1.4

Media

D B Corp Buy 189 236 3,473 1,597 1,785 22.9 24.2 11.1 13.9 17.0 13.6 3.2 2.8 20.2 22.1 2.1 1.8

HT Media Buy 85 113 2,006 2,111 2,263 15.2 15.2 7.3 8.1 11.7 10.5 1.2 1.1 11.2 11.2 0.5 0.4

Jagran Prakashan Buy 91 112 2,872 1,506 1,687 22.5 23.2 6.2 7.0 14.6 13.0 3.5 3.2 25.0 25.7 2.1 1.9

PVR Neutral 190 - 493 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 14.3 12.2 1.6 1.4 13.2 13.8 1.2 1.0

Sun TV Network Neutral 309 - 12,165 1,981 2,239 77.0 76.7 18.6 21.3 16.6 14.5 4.2 3.7 27.1 27.5 5.5 4.7Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 470 - 9,978 11,979 14,584 31.6 31.0 49.2 61.4 9.6 7.7 1.3 1.1 14.1 15.2 2.8 2.4

Coal India Neutral 353 - 223,126 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 14.7 13.5 4.0 3.3 30.4 26.8 2.3 2.0

Electrosteel Castings Buy 19 22 659 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 9.4 7.1 0.4 0.1 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 125 142 52,859 12,446 13,538 56.1 56.6 15.2 16.5 8.3 7.6 1.6 1.4 21.7 19.8 2.4 1.8

Hindalco Neutral 120 - 23,004 83,212 91,057 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 8.8 6.7 0.7 0.6 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 749 - 16,700 38,740 41,459 17.3 17.0 79.9 89.4 9.4 8.4 0.9 0.9 10.4 10.6 0.9 0.8

MOIL Neutral 260 - 4,361 918 993 50.7 50.9 24.5 26.1 10.6 10.0 1.6 1.5 16.0 15.5 2.4 2.1

Monnet Ispat Buy 309 447 1,989 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 5.2 4.6 0.7 0.6 15.6 15.3 1.4 1.0


August 16, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


14/17



Metals & Mining

Nalco Neutral 54 - 13,930 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 21.1 15.1 1.2 1.1 5.6 7.5 1.2 1.1

NMDC Neutral 187 - 74,041 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 9.8 8.9 2.4 2.0 27.1 24.4 4.1 3.5

SAIL Neutral 87 - 35,770 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.1 7.4 0.8 0.8 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

Sesa Goa Neutral 193 - 16,800 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.6 4.5 0.9 0.8 22.3 19.2 0.4 0.1

Sterlite Inds Neutral 113 - 37,807 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 6.9 6.7 0.7 0.7 11.3 10.7 0.6 0.4

Tata Steel Buy 406 499 39,436 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 7.5 6.2 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

Sarda Accumulate 131 148 468 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 4.0 3.5 0.6 0.5 15.1 14.8 0.7 0.7Prakash Industries Buy 61 73 820 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 17.9 22.6 3.4 2.7 0.4 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.4

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 330 380 62,942 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 5.8 6.0 1.1 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.8 2.2

GAIL Neutral 375 - 47,568 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 10.6 10.3 1.9 1.6 18.9 17.0 0.1 -

ONGC Accumulate 286 321 244,601 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 9.1 8.8 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.1

Reliance Industries Neutral 799 - 261,555 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 61.5 64.3 13.0 12.4 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.9 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas Neutral 305 - 3,917 2,472 3,267 16.1 11.5 21.2 19.2 14.4 15.9 5.0 4.2 33.4 28.7 1.5 1.1

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 266 - 3,721 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 10.7 9.5 2.5 2.1 25.5 23.6 1.2 1.0

Petronet LNG Buy 154 176 11,558 22,696 29,145 8.1 6.6 14.1 14.2 10.9 10.9 3.3 2.6 34.1 26.9 0.6 0.4

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 72 - 4,068 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 8.5 9.8 1.5 1.3 18.1 14.0 4.8 5.3

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 60 91 1,131 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 9.1 6.6 2.2 1.7 27.5 29.2 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 104 156 3,031 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 8.8 8.3 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.7 0.6

Aventis* Neutral 2,178 - 5,017 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.9 21.0 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.8

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 868 953 17,777 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 37.6 47.7 23.1 18.2 5.2 4.1 26.8 27.5 2.9 2.3

Cipla Accumulate 349 399 28,018 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 19.0 17.5 3.1 2.7 17.8 16.6 3.3 2.8

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,646 - 27,944 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.7 17.7 4.1 3.4 22.4 21.0 2.7 2.5

Dishman Pharma Neutral 94 - 757 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.2 8.3 0.8 0.7 7.7 8.5 1.2 1.0

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,100 - 17,791 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.6 25.5 7.9 6.9 30.8 29.0 5.8 5.0

Indoco Remedies Buy 60 92 550 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.1 6.7 1.2 1.0 15.9 16.3 1.0 0.8

Ipca labs Buy 410 475 5,167 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 14.0 11.2 3.3 2.6 26.1 26.1 1.9 1.6

Lupin Accumulate 575 647 25,713 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 27.4 32.4 21.0 17.8 5.1 4.0 27.0 25.2 3.0 2.4

Orchid Chemicals Buy 106 178 747 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 6.4 4.8 0.6 0.5 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.8

Ranbaxy* Neutral 500 - 21,124 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 14.0 16.8 5.3 4.3 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7


August 16, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


15/17



Pharmaceuticals

Sun Pharma Neutral 668 - 69,039 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 25.7 23.7 4.8 4.1 20.3 18.8 6.5 5.0

Power

CESC Accumulate 306 342 3,826 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 6.9 6.4 0.7 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.0 1.1

GIPCL Accumulate 67 77 1,008 1,557 1,573 29.3 28.7 10.8 11.0 6.2 6.1 0.6 0.6 10.8 10.2 1.1 1.0

NTPC Neutral 172 - 141,616 74,111 85,789 23.2 23.6 12.4 14.0 13.9 12.2 1.7 1.6 13.0 13.5 2.6 2.4

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 47 78 1,400 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.6 3.7 0.4 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.4 2.6DLF Neutral 216 - 36,652 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 22.5 16.1 1.4 1.4 6.4 8.7 6.2 5.1

HDIL Buy 84 115 3,507 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.7 3.1 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.3 2.5

MLIFE Accumulate 359 396 1,468 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 11.2 9.7 1.2 1.1 10.4 11.0 2.1 1.8

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 261 - 98,926 79,542 87,535 30.9 32.2 10.3 15.0 25.3 17.3 1.8 1.7 7.2 9.6 1.9 1.6

Idea Cellular Neutral 76 - 25,006 22,988 25,333 26.4 26.9 3.5 4.9 21.8 15.5 1.8 1.6 8.1 10.2 1.5 1.3

Rcom Neutral 56 - 11,590 21,553 22,494 31.0 30.7 3.5 4.5 16.1 12.6 0.3 0.3 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.8

zOthers

Abbott India Accumulate 1,554 1,628 3,301 1,662 1,899 11.4 12.5 69.8 90.4 22.3 17.2 5.1 4.2 24.9 26.6 1.8 1.5

Bajaj Electricals Buy 177 246 1,762 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 10.2 7.9 2.2 1.8 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 322 352 408 396 470 16.7 16.5 28.0 33.2 11.5 9.7 2.4 1.9 23.8 23.1 1.1 0.9

Cravatex Buy 599 785 155 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 12.2 8.4 3.6 2.6 29.8 30.7 0.6 0.5

CRISIL Neutral 898 - 6,303 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 26.2 22.5 11.8 9.5 50.9 46.9 5.8 4.9

Finolex Cables Buy 41 61 620 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.3 4.0 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Force Motors Buy 439 591 573 2,214 2,765 4.5 5.4 39.5 73.9 11.1 5.9 0.5 0.5 4.4 7.6 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India Accumulate 338 370 780 1,543 1,646 8.1 9.2 32.3 39.4 10.5 8.6 2.1 1.8 21.7 22.4 0.3 0.2Graphite India Buy 82 124 1,606 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 6.6 5.9 0.9 0.8 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.7

Greenply Industries Buy 187 309 451 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.3 4.2 1.0 0.8 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

HEG Accumulate 212 229 846 1,586 1,685 17.9 18.1 16.1 25.7 13.2 8.2 1.0 0.9 7.5 11.6 1.2 1.1

Hitachi Buy 114 160 261 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 11.2 7.1 1.4 1.2 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation Buy 2,455 2,842 2,170 1,847 2,162 4.3 7.3 61.0 120.0 40.3 20.5 3.2 2.8 9.3 16.3 1.1 0.9

INEOS ABS India Accumulate 675 744 1,186 1,056 1,081 8.1 10.6 33.8 46.5 19.9 14.5 2.8 2.4 14.7 17.5 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 226 - 260 1,451 1,669 12.3 12.4 32.4 41.5 7.0 5.4 0.6 0.6 9.4 10.9 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 139 145 2,236 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 23.4 19.4 3.4 3.1 15.0 16.6 2.1 1.8

MCX Buy 1,150 1,598 5,866 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 17.0 14.4 4.9 4.2 29.1 28.9 6.8 5.4

MRF Buy 10,704 12,884 4,540 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 8.3 7.5 1.6 1.3 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.5


August 16, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


16/17



zOthers

Page Industries Neutral 3,120 - 3,480 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 32.9 25.8 17.1 13.9 57.4 59.5 4.0 3.2

Relaxo Footwears Buy 589 684 707 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 11.6 8.6 3.1 2.3 30.3 30.2 0.8 0.7

Sintex Industries Buy 62 79 1,687 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.5 3.9 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 289 392 271 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.4 3.7 0.8 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 23 45 681 7,279 8,290 21.0 21.0 15.0 17.6 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.2 13.7 13.9 0.7 0.6

SpiceJet Accumulate 36 40 1,722 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 18.3 7.3 43.0 6.2 - - 0.4 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 67 108 421 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.5 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5Tata Sponge Iron Buy 332 424 512 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.7 5.0 0.8 0.7 14.9 15.1 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Accumulate 304 335 233 1,476 1,643 7.1 8.2 24.7 42.8 12.3 7.1 1.5 1.2 16.6 24.8 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 890 - 11,639 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 28.7 20.7 2.2 2.0 8.1 10.3 1.9 1.7

Vesuvius India Accumulate 362 413 735 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.2 10.5 2.1 1.8 18.8 18.6 1.0 0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 14, 2012


August 16, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


17/17

August 16, 2012Market Outlook

Documents

Market Outlook 160812