Market Outlook 030912

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 030912

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Market OutlookSeptember 3, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers DiaryIndian markets are expected to open in the green, following a positive opening of

the SGX Nifty and expected deferment of GAAR for three years.

The US markets ended higher on Friday, after reacting positively to a closely

watched speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke reiterated

that the central bank will act "as needed" to boost the sluggish economy, although

he did not explicitly signal any further stimulus efforts. Traders shrugged off some

mixed economic results from the US in the afternoon wherein though factory orders

came in better than expected and the consumer sentiment result was upwardly

revised, the Chicago business barometer slowed by more than economists had

been anticipating.

Indian shares fell sharply on Friday after government data showed the country's

GDP growth languished around its lowest level in three years in the first quarter

ended June. GDP grew at a higher-than-expected 5.5% versus forecasts for a 5.3%

expansion, dashing rate cut hopes left over, if any, at the upcoming monetary

policy meeting to be held in September.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 17,425 / 5,267 levels. If Nifty trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 17,513 17,645 / 5,295 5,331 levels. However, if Nifty trades below

17,425 / 5,267 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

17,293 17,205 / 5,231 5,203 levels.

SENSEX 17,205 17,293 17,425 17,513 17,645

NIFTY 5,203 5,231 5,267 5,295 5,331

News Analysis GAAR expected to be deferred for three years GDP growth at 5.5% for 1QFY2013 Automotive monthly sales - August 2012 CAG report on coal blocks JSW Steel and JSW Ispat approves mergerRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (August 29, 2012)

FII 2,244 1,830 415 2,610 59,563

MFs 399 478 (80) (1,169) (9,365)

FII Derivatives (August 31, 2012)

Index Futures 1,454 2,195 (741) 10,855

Stock Futures 1,256 1,528 (272) 23,465

Gainers / Losers

Biocon 259 4.5 GMR Infra 18 (4.7)MMTC 755 3.9 India Cements 84 (4.6)

Adani Power 39 3.6 IFCI 26 (4.0)

Hindustan Copp 260 3.0 HPCL 297 (3.4)

Pidilite Inds 191 3.0 Indian Bank 153 (3.2)

BSE Sensex (0.9) (160.9) 17,381

Nifty (1.1) (56.6) 5,259

MID CAP 0.1 2.8 5,999

SMALL CAP 0.1 4.5 6,386

BSE HC 0.0 0.7 7,473

BSE PSU (0.7) (45.5) 6,929

BANKEX (0.8) (89.8) 11,475

AUTO (1.2) (114.7) 9,226

METAL (1.4) (136.0) 9,671

OIL & GAS (1.3) (108.5) 8,181

BSE IT (1.1) (63.8) 5,723

Dow Jones 0.7 90.1 13,091NASDAQ 0.6 18.3 3,067

FTSE (0.1) (8.0) 5,711

Nikkei (1.6) (143.9) 8,840

Hang Seng (0.4) (70.3) 19,483

Straits Times 0.5 13.6 3,025

Shanghai Com (0.3) (5.1) 2,048

INFY (0.8) (0.3) $42.4

WIT (0.6) (0.0) $8.0IBN (1.4) (0.5) $32.7

HDB (0.1) (0.0) $34.1

Advances 1,380 634

Declines 1,419 833

Unchanged 131 87

BSE 2,598

NSE 14,290


2/15



GAAR expected to be deferred for three years

General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) which was introduced by then finance

minister Pranab Mukherjee in his budget speech in March 2012 is expected to be

deferred for three years till April 2016. By delaying GAAR, the government will

substantially reduce the uncertainty among investors, and reduce the overhang

that has been there since its announcement. We believe this move will act as a

catalyst for the revival of Indian equities if followed up by other actions such as FDI

liberalisation, aligning of diesel prices to the market and other pro-growth

measures.

GDP growth at 5.5% for 1QFY2013

Real GDP growth for 1QFY2013 increased to 5.5%, marginally higher than 5.3%

growth in the previous quarter. GDP growth for 1QFY2013 is largely driven by

growth in construction and financing, insurance, real estate & business services

sector. Construction reported growth of 10.9% as against 4.8% growth in

4QFY2012 owing to high growth in production of cement and consumption of

finished steel. Financing, insurance, real estate & business services maintained

their growth momentum by reporting 10.8% growth as compared to 10% growth

in the previous quarter.

Service sector growth, with the highest weightage in GDP, declined for the third

consecutive quarter to 6.9%. The industrial sector reported growth of 3.6%

supported by growth in construction and electricity. Mining, manufacturing and

electricity, gas and water supply reported growth of 0.1%, 0.2% and 6.3%

respectively in spite of de-growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) formining and manufacturing by 1.1% and 0.7% during the period. Agriculture,

forestry and fishing reported growth of 2.9% in 1QFY2013 as against growth rate

of 1.7% during the previous quarter owing to positive growth in wheat, cotton,

sugarcane and cereals although production of rice and oilseeds marked a

significant decline.

In spite of growth coming in at higher-than-expected level, the economy has

witnessed significant slowdown in its growth trajectory. We believe that the RBI is

unlikely to cut its key policy rates in the Mid Quarter Review of Monetary Policy due

in September since upside risks to inflation continue to persist in the near-term.

Automotive monthly sales - August 2012

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)

MSIL recorded 40.8% yoy (34.1% mom) decline in total volumes to 54,154 units

on account of month-long lockout at its Manesar plant due to violence. The

Manesar shutdown negatively impacted sales of popular

models,Swift and Dzire which continues to witness strong demand. Hampered by

the production constraints, sales of Dzire were down by 60.7% yoy (73% mom)

during the month. Sales of passenger compact cars which includes Swift, Estilo andRitz, together clocked a decline of 62.2% yoy (61.6% mom) mainly due to the

strike at the Manesar plant. Exports during the month stood at 4,025 units, down

72% yoy (64.1% mom).


3/15



Mahindra and Mahindra (MM)

MM continues to defy the current trend of slowdown in the automotive segment

and posted a healthy growth of 10% yoy (down 7.1% mom) to 59,070 units led by

strong growth of 21.6% yoy (dowm 2.6% mom) in the automotive segment. The

automotive segment growth was led by 39.4% yoy (5.2% mom) growth in thepassenger vehicle segment (includes UV and Verito) which was driven

byXUV5OO and refreshed version of Verito. The four-wheeler pick-up segment

too posted a strong growth of 13.6% yoy (down 2.9% mom). The tractor segment

however, registered extremely weak sales with total volumes declining by 17.3%

yoy (19.9% mom) to 13,234.

Tata Motors (TTMT)

TTMT registered healthy sales for August 2012 led by strong growth in the

domestic passenger vehicle sales which grew by 33% yoy (down 15% mom). Total

volumes increased 12% yoy (down 2.3% mom) to 71,826 units. Passenger vehicle

sales growth was led by significant run-up in Nano volumes which grew by 441%

yoy (18.6% mom) to 6,507 units. The Indica and the UV range too registered a

strong growth during the month. Commercial vehicle segment, however, recorded

a modest growth of 5% yoy (strong growth of 6.5% mom) as MHCV volumes

declined 12% yoy (up by a strong 14.8% mom) due to slowdown in industrial

activity and lower freight availability. LCV sales continued with strong momentum

registering a growth of 16% yoy (2.9% mom).

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL)

HMCL reported a dip of 11.9% yoy (8.3% mom) in its total volumes to 443,801units led by demand moderation in the domestic markets due to the overall

macro-economic situation which has adversely affected retail sales, both in the

urban and the rural markets.

TVS Motor (TVSL)

TVSL posted poor numbers yet again with total sales declining by 20.7% yoy (4.1%

mom) to 154,647 units led by continued weak performance across all the product

segments amidst demand moderation and rising competition. While motorcycle

sales declined 30.9% yoy (flat mom), scooters sales plunged sharply by 26.9% yoy

(6.6% mom). Three-wheeler sales witnessed a decline of 17.1% yoy (up 18.5%

mom) to 3,907 units. Exports declined by 17.1% yoy during the month

CAG report on coal blocks

The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) in its report Performance

Audit of Allocation of Coal Blocks and Augmentation of Coal Production (Ministry

of Coal) has estimated a gain of `185,591cr to private companies for open cast

mines due to policy defaults by the Coal Ministry/ government. It states that there

was no transparency in allocation of blocks and auctioning/competitive bidding for

the mines would have tapped a part of this financial benefit.

A total of 154 coal blocks were awarded to public and private companies

(including UMPPs) after July 2004. However, CAGs loss estimate of `185,591cr

is limited to allocation of 57 mines allotted to private companies. CAG has


4/15



benchmarked the selling price, average production cost and net finance gain to

Coal Indias financials. Thus, it estimates a net gain of `295/tonne on the

estimated recoverable reserves of 6,282mn tonne, amounting to `185,591cr.

While the policy of allocating mines is a debatable issue, we believe that

the gain of`

185,591cr to private players has been mis-calculated. Firstly, the netgain of `295/tonne cannot be a benchmark for all the 57 mines as the cost of

production, grade of coal, capex incurred, annual production capacity etc vary

significantly for different mines. Secondly, CAG has not considered the present

value of the financial gain.

The government had indicated its intention to auction the

upcoming mines well before CAGs report was out. Hence, we believe that there

would be auctioning/competitive bidding for the mines that would be allotted

henceforth. However, a comprehensive policy on auctioning coal block will take its

own time in our view; meanwhile, we would see no coal blocks allotted to any

private companies in the near-term. Further, for the existing 57 blocks, there are

several possibilities including a big one-time payment (based on present value of

coal benefit), higher royalty, profit sharing or even de-allocation of the mines.

Among the private companies named in the report who benefitted from these 57

blocks, our coverage companies include Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco,

Electrosteel castings, Monnet Ispat, Bhushan Steel and Sterlite Industries. Most of

these companies stocks have declined since the announcement of the CAG report.

We believe that the share price performance of these stocks will remain muted in

the near-term due to uncertainty over the future of allotted coal blocks to these

companies.

Electrosteel Castings Jharkhand North Dhadu 924

Jharkhand Parbatpur A to C 236

Hindalco Jharkhand Tubed 190

MadhyaPradesh Mahan 144

Monnet Ispat Orissa Mandakini A 323

JSW Steel Jharkhand Rohne 242

Tata Steel Jharkhand Ganeshpur 137

Jharkhand Kotre Basantpur 148

Jharkhand Panchmo 102

Balco (Sterlitesubsidiary) Chhattisgarh Durgapur II 211

Sterlite Industries OrissaDip side of Rampia &Rampia 645

Bhushan Steel Orissa New Patrapara 433


5/15



JSW Steel and JSW Ispat to merge

JSW Steel has announced that it will merge JSW Ispat which will result in

potential tax benefits to the merged entity, although it will increase the leverage

levels of the merged entity. JSW Ispats shareholders will receive 1 share of JSW

Steel for every 72 shares held resulting in equity dilution of 8%. Shares of JSWIspat held by JSW Steel will be cancelled. Further, JSW Steel will also issue 48.54cr

new 0.01 per cent non-convertible cumulative redeemable preference shares to

the preference shareholders of JSW Ispat. JSW Steel had acquired 47% stake in

JSW Ispat during FY2011 for `2,157cr. Thus, JSW Steel will issue 1.86cr new

equity shares resulting in increase in outstanding shares to 24.2cr. The merged

entitys steel-making capacity will increase to 14.3mn tonnes from the current

11mn tonnes capacity of JSW Steel (standalone). Post-merger, the JSW Steels

promoters stake will decrease to 35.12% in the merged entity, compared to

current stake in JSW Steel of 38.02%.

JSW Ispat, being a loss-making company, has a taxbenefit of `288cr which will now benefit the merged company. The merger is also

expected to lower the interest cost of JSW Ispat as being a loss-making entity JSW

Ispats debts interest rate is higher. However, the net debt (including acceptances)

of the merged entity will increase to `32,700cr from the current JSW Steels debt of

`24,100cr. JSW Steels standalone tax rate of 30% is likely to fall to 20%, thus

boosting the EPS during FY2014 in our view. The deal is subject to several

approvals and is expected to be completed by end of FY2013. Going forward, we

will revise our estimates to factor in the financials of the merged entity. Until then,

Economic and Political News RBI permits qualified foreign investors to hedge foreign currency risk Coal Ministry told to decide soon on 58 blocks Power Ministry ignored PMO on award of six hydro projectsCorporate News Odisha shuts 6 Coal India mines as eco clearance expires Reliance Infra to commence cement production by month-end Major fire breaks out at Apollo Tyres Kochi unit

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


6/15

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

September 03, 2012 Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Aug F 45.10 45.10

India Imports YoY% % Change Jul (13.46) --India Exports YoY% % Change Jul (5.45) --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value Aug 45.40 46.30

September 05, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Aug F 48.30 48.30

September 06, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Sep 1 374.00 370.00

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 2Q P (0.20) (0.20)

UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Sep 6 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Sep 6 0.75 0.50

September 07, 2012 UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul (4.30) (2.40)

US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Aug 163.00 120.00

US Unnemployment rate % Aug 8.30 8.30

September 09, 2012 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Aug 9.20 9.20

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Aug 1.80 2.00

September 10, 2012 China Exports YoY% % Change Aug 1.00 2.80

September 12, 2012 UK Jobless claims change % Change Aug (5.90) --

India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jul (1.80) --

September 13, 2012 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Aug 0.30 --

US FOMC rate decision % Sep 13 0.25 --

September 14, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Aug 2.40 --

IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

% Change Aug 6.87 --

US Industrial Production % Aug 0.65 --

US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Aug -- --

September 17, 2012 India RBI Repo rate % Sep 17 8.00 --

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Sep 17 4.75 --

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Sep 17 7.00 --

September 18, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change Aug 2.60 --

September 19, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions Aug 4.47 --

US Housing Starts Thousands Aug 746.00 --

US Building permits Thousands Aug 811.00 --

September 20, 2012 Euro Zone

Euro-Zone Consumer

Confidence Value Sep A (24.60) --

September 25, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100Sep 60.60 --

September 26, 2012 US New home sales Thousands Aug 372.00 --

September 27, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q T 1.70 --

UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q F (0.50) --

October 18, 2012 China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.60 --

September 27, 2012 UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q F (0.50) --

October 18, 2012 China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q 7.60 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


September 03, 2012

Market Outlook


7/15

Market StrategySeptember 3, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

3. 5

5. 7

9 .0

7. 5

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

3 .7 3. 42. 5

(5.0)

6. 0

2 .7

1. 0

4. 3

(2.8) (0.9)

2. 5

(1.8)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 8 10.0 9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 3 6. 9

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Expo rts yo y g ro wth Im ports yo y growth( %)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


8/15

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 132 - 2,572 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 18.9 16.3 4.0 3.4 22.6 22.5 1.8 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 119 170 5,469 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 7.9 7.0 1.2 1.0 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 373 402 3,184 2,844 3,225 15.4 15.5 31.7 36.6 11.8 10.2 3.0 2.4 28.8 26.2 1.0 0.9

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 94 99 4,740 13,412 15,041 11.0 11.0 11.5 14.2 8.2 6.7 1.4 1.2 18.7 19.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 21 30 5,508 14,920 16,850 9.0 9.3 2.2 2.8 9.5 7.5 1.7 1.5 13.3 15.6 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle Buy 339 430 512 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 9.2 7.9 1.8 1.6 21.2 21.3 0.6 0.4Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,615 1,698 46,744 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 14.9 13.3 6.2 5.0 46.1 41.3 1.8 1.5

Bharat Forge Buy 280 351 6,508 7,004 7,985 16.2 16.4 20.3 25.1 13.8 11.2 2.6 2.2 20.0 20.9 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Neutral 8,552 - 26,852 9,034 10,286 17.8 18.3 373.6 435.8 22.9 19.6 4.7 3.9 20.5 19.8 2.6 2.2

CEAT Buy 111 164 381 4,989 5,634 8.7 8.5 32.7 41.1 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.4 15.8 16.9 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 131 149 11,144 5,899 6,771 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.1 17.8 14.4 3.2 2.7 19.0 20.2 1.6 1.3

FAG Bearings Neutral 1,591 - 2,644 1,505 1,747 17.7 18.0 111.5 130.0 14.3 12.2 3.0 2.4 22.8 21.7 1.5 1.2

Hero Motocorp Buy 1,788 2,428 35,706 26,097 29,963 15.0 15.3 139.5 151.8 12.8 11.8 6.0 4.6 54.6 44.3 1.1 0.9

JK Tyre Buy 108 135 444 7,517 8,329 6.1 6.3 26.2 38.5 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.5 13.4 17.2 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 765 879 46,979 36,536 41,650 11.6 11.5 49.3 54.9 15.5 13.9 3.2 2.7 22.1 21.1 1.0 0.9

Maruti Accumulate 1,139 1,227 32,894 42,887 49,079 5.5 6.6 66.8 87.6 17.0 13.0 2.0 1.7 12.1 14.1 0.6 0.5

Motherson Sumi Buy 185 228 7,252 24,173 27,055 6.6 7.1 11.7 15.2 15.8 12.2 3.3 2.7 22.4 24.2 0.5 0.4

Subros Buy 27 34 164 1,230 1,378 8.8 8.6 4.5 5.7 6.1 4.8 0.6 0.6 9.8 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 234 292 62,297 195,096 219,428 12.8 12.8 39.0 43.9 6.0 5.3 1.7 1.3 32.6 28.2 0.4 0.3

TVS Motor Accumulate 39 43 1,860 7,545 8,301 6.2 6.1 4.9 5.4 7.9 7.3 1.4 1.3 18.8 18.2 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 715 498 15,159 8,760 10,023 5.5 7.5 12.4 20.7 57.6 34.5 5.5 4.9 10.1 15.2 1.7 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 260 - 1,875 3,669 4,561 11.0 11.0 24.7 29.6 10.5 8.8 1.6 1.4 15.3 16.7 - 0.5

BHEL Neutral 214 - 52,464 47,801 43,757 19.4 19.8 25.7 23.9 8.3 9.0 1.8 1.5 22.7 18.3 1.0 0.8

Blue Star Neutral 175 - 1,574 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 12.5 16.2 14.0 10.8 3.4 2.8 26.1 28.2 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 108 128 6,912 12,691 14,096 7.0 8.5 6.5 9.1 16.6 11.8 1.8 1.6 11.1 14.2 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 37 59 307 2,622 2,801 10.3 10.7 8.7 13.1 4.3 2.9 0.4 0.4 10.3 14.0 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 56 69 1,445 6,858 7,431 7.5 8.3 9.0 11.5 6.3 4.9 1.1 0.9 26.9 27.2 0.3 0.3

LMW Neutral 1,975 - 2,225 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 13.8 11.9 2.3 2.1 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.3

Thermax Neutral 485 - 5,781 5,514 5,559 8.9 9.6 26.9 28.4 18.1 17.1 3.1 2.8 18.4 17.1 1.0 1.0


September 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


9/15



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,312 - 24,641 11,220 12,896 20.0 20.6 71.1 81.2 18.5 16.2 3.2 2.9 18.1 19.0 1.9 1.6

Ambuja Cements Neutral 185 - 28,549 10,205 11,659 24.6 24.2 10.8 12.0 17.1 15.4 3.6 3.2 19.7 19.8 2.4 2.0

India Cements Neutral 85 - 2,605 4,393 4,914 19.3 19.5 10.1 12.7 8.4 6.7 0.7 0.7 8.8 10.6 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 96 - 1,175 1,964 2,278 19.5 20.4 16.3 17.9 5.9 5.4 0.9 0.8 14.7 14.6 0.8 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 180 - 4,293 3,608 3,928 27.4 26.9 15.6 18.1 11.6 10.0 1.8 1.6 16.8 16.9 1.8 1.5

Shree Cements Neutral 3,385 - 11,792 5,767 6,337 28.4 26.9 216.9 253.3 15.6 13.4 5.4 4.6 24.7 23.4 1.5 1.2

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,693 - 46,414 20,167 22,752 21.7 23.0 90.8 107.8 18.7 15.7 18.7 15.7 - - 1.9 1.7Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 252 304 1,326 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 11.1 9.4 1.2 1.1 11.4 11.9 2.5 2.8

Consolidated Co Neutral 14 - 253 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 9.2 5.2 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

Hind. Const. Neutral 15 - 928 4,239 4,522 9.9 11.2 (2.3) (1.0) (6.8) (15.9) 0.8 1.0 (11.4) (5.6) 1.1 1.1

IRB Infra Buy 123 166 4,086 3,964 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.5 16.9 8.0 7.3 1.2 1.1 16.6 15.8 2.6 2.5

ITNL Buy 166 232 3,231 6,840 7,767 26.4 26.1 24.4 28.4 6.8 5.9 1.0 0.9 16.0 16.2 2.6 2.8

IVRCL Infra Buy 39 61 1,033 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 15.3 8.5 0.5 0.5 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 65 91 13,790 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 15.3 13.0 1.3 1.2 8.5 9.3 2.2 2.0

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,341 1,553 82,337 60,474 69,091 12.1 11.5 79.7 85.4 16.8 15.7 2.8 2.5 16.3 15.1 1.5 1.3

Madhucon Proj Buy 30 56 219 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 6.4 6.3 0.3 0.3 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 34 45 863 5,804 6,513 8.0 8.6 3.0 3.5 11.1 9.6 0.4 0.4 3.2 3.6 0.6 0.6

Patel Engg. Neutral 67 - 470 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 4.8 4.6 0.3 0.3 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.0

Punj Lloyd Neutral 44 - 1,476 11,892 13,116 8.9 8.9 1.7 3.1 26.2 14.4 0.5 0.5 1.9 3.4 0.5 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 131 182 1,977 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 15.6 12.6 2.1 1.8 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 193 265 956 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 8.2 6.6 0.8 0.7 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 119 128 5,960 7,233 8,579 3.1 3.3 40.5 40.9 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.5 19.4 17.0 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 92 - 5,120 4,959 5,787 3.1 3.1 22.7 24.5 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.6 16.0 15.3 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,000 1,373 41,440 15,961 19,583 3.1 3.2 117.3 143.1 8.5 7.0 1.6 1.4 20.1 20.8 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 632 829 24,756 15,830 19,300 2.6 2.7 118.9 147.1 5.3 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.7 18.0 - -

Bank of India Buy 257 323 14,763 13,159 15,851 2.4 2.5 61.1 71.1 4.2 3.6 0.7 0.6 16.6 17.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 43 - 2,562 3,471 3,889 3.1 3.1 9.0 11.5 4.8 3.8 0.6 0.6 13.7 15.5 - -

Canara Bank Buy 317 421 14,043 11,334 13,629 2.2 2.3 75.4 85.1 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.6 15.2 15.3 - -

Central Bank Neutral 66 - 4,840 7,181 8,365 2.5 2.7 16.3 21.8 4.0 3.0 0.7 0.6 12.7 15.1 - -


September 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


10/15



Financials

Corporation Bank Buy 369 436 5,465 5,067 5,998 2.1 2.3 105.6 111.0 3.5 3.3 0.6 0.5 17.6 16.3 - -

Dena Bank Buy 87 107 3,053 3,177 3,595 2.8 2.8 25.2 25.4 3.5 3.4 0.6 0.5 18.9 16.4 - -

Federal Bank Accumulate 407 459 6,959 2,697 3,171 3.4 3.4 47.9 58.0 8.5 7.0 1.1 1.0 13.6 14.7 - -

HDFC Reduce 733 671 112,430 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 23.3 19.4 4.7 4.1 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 595 - 140,290 21,936 27,454 4.4 4.4 28.7 36.0 20.8 16.5 4.0 3.4 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 909 1,169 104,520 22,356 27,157 2.9 3.0 68.7 82.0 13.2 11.1 1.6 1.5 14.2 15.5 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 84 101 10,771 7,952 9,876 1.9 2.2 18.5 23.6 4.6 3.6 0.6 0.5 12.8 14.7 - -Indian Bank Buy 156 190 6,707 6,294 7,191 3.4 3.4 40.6 44.9 3.8 3.5 0.6 0.6 18.1 17.4 - -

IOB Buy 68 80 5,412 7,473 8,732 2.5 2.5 16.7 22.6 4.1 3.0 0.5 0.4 11.8 14.4 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 918 1,026 4,449 2,625 2,921 3.6 3.5 194.4 191.9 4.7 4.8 0.9 0.8 21.2 18.0 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 240 279 12,117 1,867 2,338 2.4 2.4 21.1 28.5 11.4 8.4 1.9 1.6 17.5 20.4 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 222 278 6,467 6,518 7,458 2.8 2.9 61.3 65.1 3.6 3.4 0.5 0.5 15.2 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 678 950 22,990 20,116 23,625 3.3 3.4 152.8 173.9 4.4 3.9 0.8 0.7 18.2 18.0 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 21 27 2,368 1,514 1,717 2.8 2.7 4.0 4.2 5.2 5.0 1.0 0.9 20.5 18.5 - -

St Bk of India Buy 1,845 2,270 123,808 64,470 75,940 3.5 3.5 224.4 258.7 8.2 7.1 1.4 1.2 17.6 17.8 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 94 119 5,655 6,840 7,996 2.9 3.0 25.7 29.2 3.7 3.2 0.6 0.5 17.9 17.8 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 64 - 4,248 5,488 6,338 2.4 2.5 17.3 17.7 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.0 15.3 - -

Union Bank Buy 156 230 8,569 10,299 12,227 2.9 3.0 42.1 49.3 3.7 3.2 0.7 0.5 16.7 17.1 - -

United Bank Buy 50 79 1,814 3,634 4,194 2.8 2.9 18.2 23.0 2.8 2.2 0.4 0.4 15.0 16.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 47 - 2,327 2,579 3,028 2.1 2.3 8.8 11.6 5.3 4.1 0.6 0.6 11.1 13.3 - -

Yes Bank Buy 330 453 11,706 3,255 4,228 2.8 3.0 34.2 42.7 9.7 7.7 2.0 1.7 23.3 23.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,653 - 35,043 11,198 13,184 16.3 16.3 121.0 144.8 30.2 25.2 10.1 8.0 37.4 35.3 3.1 2.6Britannia Buy 502 584 5,998 5,835 6,824 5.7 6.0 20.7 25.4 24.3 19.8 9.6 7.3 43.1 41.9 1.0 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,218 - 16,559 3,018 3,429 20.9 22.3 34.6 41.0 35.2 29.7 32.4 24.6 99.5 94.1 5.3 4.7

Dabur India Neutral 124 - 21,525 6,124 7,030 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 27.6 23.9 11.4 9.0 43.2 41.5 3.5 3.0

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,931 - 12,327 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 28.1 23.7 8.7 7.0 34.4 32.8 3.6 3.0

Godrej Consumer Neutral 691 - 23,503 6,097 7,233 18.4 18.6 21.9 26.5 31.6 26.1 7.0 5.8 25.5 25.4 4.0 3.4

HUL Neutral 518 - 112,040 25,350 28,974 13.9 13.9 14.3 16.5 36.4 31.5 21.6 16.7 70.9 59.8 4.2 3.6

ITC Neutral 268 - 209,883 29,513 33,885 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.8 28.8 24.8 9.5 8.0 35.6 35.0 6.8 5.9


September 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


11/15


12/15



Metals & Mining

Nalco Neutral 50 - 12,899 7,401 7,841 16.7 19.2 3.4 4.1 14.6 12.2 1.1 1.0 7.4 8.4 1.3 1.2

NMDC Accumulate 192 214 76,103 12,934 14,266 79.4 80.1 21.1 23.4 9.1 8.2 2.4 2.0 29.6 26.5 4.0 3.4

SAIL Neutral 78 - 32,197 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.2 6.6 0.7 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.1 0.9

Sesa Goa Accumulate 171 192 14,901 7,704 8,034 33.6 34.6 42.0 43.1 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 22.3 19.2 0.2 (0.2)

Sterlite Inds Buy 96 115 32,329 41,680 45,382 24.2 23.2 16.3 16.9 5.9 5.7 0.6 0.6 11.3 10.7 0.4 0.3

Tata Steel Buy 363 481 35,207 145,799 150,431 10.3 11.2 48.6 63.3 7.5 5.7 0.8 0.7 10.5 12.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 118 148 422 1,251 1,321 22.7 23.4 33.0 37.1 3.6 3.2 0.5 0.4 15.1 14.8 0.7 0.6Prakash Industries Buy 50 73 674 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 17.9 22.6 2.8 2.2 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 114 161 363 2,341 2,425 15.6 17.3 33.8 43.8 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.3 13.2 14.4 0.5 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Accumulate 340 380 64,805 16,605 17,258 75.4 71.7 57.0 54.9 6.0 6.2 1.1 0.9 20.2 16.3 2.9 2.3

GAIL Neutral 352 - 44,600 50,176 55,815 15.5 15.8 35.4 36.5 9.9 9.6 1.8 1.5 18.9 17.0 0.1 -

ONGC Accumulate 276 312 236,260 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 9.0 8.6 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.2 1.3 1.2

Reliance Industries Neutral 772 - 252,779 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 61.5 64.3 12.6 12.0 1.3 1.2 10.3 9.9 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas Neutral 295 - 3,782 2,472 3,267 16.1 11.5 21.2 19.2 13.9 15.4 4.8 4.1 33.4 28.7 1.4 1.1

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 246 - 3,438 3,040 3,135 24.3 26.7 24.8 27.9 9.9 8.8 2.3 1.9 25.5 23.6 1.2 1.0

Petronet LNG Buy 151 176 11,340 22,696 29,145 8.1 6.6 14.1 14.2 10.7 10.6 3.2 2.6 34.1 26.9 0.6 0.4

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 79 - 4,462 1,041 939 91.8 91.9 8.5 7.4 9.4 10.7 1.6 1.4 18.1 14.0 5.2 5.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 70 91 1,313 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.6 7.7 2.6 2.0 27.9 29.2 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 111 156 3,223 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 9.4 8.8 1.0 0.4 17.9 16.4 1.1 1.0

Aventis* Neutral 2,175 - 5,009 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.9 20.9 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.7Cadila Healthcare Neutral 916 - 18,753 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 36.0 46.1 25.4 19.9 6.0 4.8 25.8 26.8 3.3 2.7

Cipla Accumulate 378 399 30,362 8,031 9,130 23.4 22.4 18.4 20.0 20.6 18.9 3.4 2.9 17.8 16.6 3.6 3.0

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,685 - 28,604 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.1 18.1 4.1 3.5 22.4 21.0 3.0 2.6

Dishman Pharma Reduce 101 92 811 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 10.9 8.9 0.8 0.8 7.7 8.5 1.3 1.1

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,117 - 17,935 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.9 25.7 8.1 7.2 20.1 26.3 6.0 5.2

Indoco Remedies Buy 70 92 641 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 9.4 7.8 1.4 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Accumulate 436 475 5,496 2,850 3,474 20.7 20.7 29.2 36.6 14.9 11.9 3.5 2.8 26.1 26.1 2.1 1.7

Lupin Accumulate 593 647 26,520 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 27.4 32.4 21.7 18.3 5.3 4.2 26.0 24.7 3.2 2.6

Orchid Chemicals #VALUE! 110 773 1,667 1,835 13.9 13.9 11.4 13.3 9.6 8.2 0.6 0.6 6.6 7.3 0.9 0.8


September 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


13/15



Pharmaceuticals

Ranbaxy* Neutral 551 - 23,279 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 15.4 18.5 6.0 4.8 39.1 28.9 2.0 1.9

Sun Pharma Neutral 669 - 69,127 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 25.7 23.7 4.8 4.1 20.3 18.8 6.3 4.9

Power

CESC Accumulate 305 342 3,814 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 6.9 6.4 0.7 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.0 1.1

GIPCL Accumulate 69 77 1,047 1,557 1,573 29.3 28.7 10.8 11.0 6.4 6.3 0.7 0.6 10.8 10.2 1.1 1.0

NTPC Neutral 168 - 138,606 74,111 85,789 23.2 23.6 12.4 14.0 13.6 12.0 1.7 1.5 13.0 13.5 2.6 2.4

Real EstateAnant Raj Buy 45 78 1,328 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 5.4 3.5 0.3 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.3 2.5

DLF Neutral 196 - 33,282 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 20.5 14.6 1.3 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.9 4.8

HDIL Buy 68 115 2,862 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.0 2.6 0.3 0.2 8.8 9.4 3.0 2.3

MLIFE Accumulate 345 396 1,409 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 10.8 9.3 1.1 1.0 10.4 11.0 2.1 1.8

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 246 - 93,305 79,542 87,535 30.9 32.2 10.3 15.0 23.9 16.4 1.7 1.6 7.2 9.6 1.9 1.6

Idea Cellular Neutral 75 - 24,741 22,988 25,333 26.4 26.9 3.5 4.9 21.6 15.3 1.7 1.6 8.1 10.2 1.5 1.3

Rcom Neutral 49 - 10,031 21,553 22,494 31.0 30.7 3.5 4.5 14.0 10.9 0.3 0.3 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.8

zOthers

Abbott India Neutral 1,602 - 3,404 1,602 1,833 10.4 11.8 54.7 71.7 29.3 22.3 5.5 4.7 20.0 22.7 1.9 1.6

Bajaj Electricals Buy 170 234 1,689 3,569 4,172 8.1 8.8 16.3 21.3 10.4 8.0 2.1 1.8 21.7 24.6 0.5 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Neutral 343 - 434 396 470 16.7 16.5 28.0 33.2 12.3 10.3 2.5 2.0 23.8 23.1 1.2 1.0

Cravatex Buy 431 785 111 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 8.8 6.1 2.6 1.9 29.8 30.7 0.5 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 918 - 6,439 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 26.7 23.0 12.1 9.7 50.9 46.9 6.1 5.1

Finolex Cables Buy 37 61 559 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 4.8 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Force Motors Buy 427 591 556 2,214 2,765 4.5 5.4 39.5 73.9 10.8 5.8 0.5 0.4 4.4 7.6 0.1 0.1Goodyear India Accumulate 327 370 755 1,543 1,646 8.1 9.2 32.3 39.4 10.1 8.3 2.0 1.7 21.7 22.4 0.3 0.2

Graphite India Buy 79 113 1,542 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 6.4 5.6 0.9 0.8 14.0 14.3 0.8 0.7

Greenply Industries Buy 190 309 458 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.4 4.3 1.1 0.9 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

HEG Accumulate 203 229 811 1,586 1,685 17.9 18.1 16.1 25.7 12.7 7.9 0.9 0.9 7.5 11.6 1.2 1.1

Hitachi Accumulate 115 130 263 868 977 3.9 6.6 2.7 10.9 41.8 10.6 1.5 1.4 3.7 13.6 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation Buy 2,463 2,842 2,177 1,847 2,162 4.3 7.3 61.0 120.0 40.4 20.5 3.2 2.8 9.3 16.3 1.1 0.9

INEOS ABS India Buy 646 744 1,136 1,056 1,081 8.1 10.6 33.8 46.5 19.1 13.9 2.6 2.3 14.7 17.5 1.0 0.9

ITD Cementation Accumulate 229 241 263 1,451 1,669 12.3 12.4 32.4 41.5 7.1 5.5 0.6 0.6 9.4 10.9 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Reduce 155 145 2,493 1,248 1,468 9.8 10.4 5.9 7.2 26.1 21.6 3.8 3.4 15.0 16.6 2.4 2.0

MCX Buy 1,150 1,440 5,863 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 18.4 16.0 5.1 4.4 27.5 27.4 7.6 6.3


September 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


14/15



zOthers

MRF Buy 10,068 12,884 4,270 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.8 7.0 1.5 1.3 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 3,033 - 3,383 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 31.9 25.1 16.7 13.5 57.4 59.5 3.9 3.1

Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 624 684 749 1,019 1,208 12.3 13.0 51.0 68.4 12.2 9.1 3.2 2.4 30.3 30.2 0.9 0.7

Sintex Industries Buy 54 79 1,480 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.0 3.4 0.5 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.5

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 291 392 273 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 20 38 580 7,279 8,290 20.5 20.5 13.4 16.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.2 12.3 13.1 0.7 0.6

SpiceJet Buy 32 43 1,533 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 8.8 5.9 12.7 4.0 - - 0.4 0.3TAJ GVK Buy 62 108 389 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.9 6.8 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.4

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 295 424 454 787 837 16.2 17.5 58.5 66.9 5.0 4.4 0.7 0.6 14.9 15.1 0.2 0.1

TVS Srichakra Accumulate 318 335 243 1,476 1,643 7.1 8.2 24.7 42.8 12.9 7.4 1.6 1.3 16.6 24.8 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 976 - 12,764 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 31.4 22.7 2.5 2.2 8.1 10.3 1.9 1.7

Vesuvius India Neutral 359 - 729 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.6 12.5 2.2 1.9 15.8 16.2 1.2 1.1

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 31, 2012


September 03, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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September 03, 2012Market Outlook

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