1. 1. + 2015 Ford Midsize SUV Market Forecast Abigale Wu / Audrey Huang/ Juilong Wang/ Lina Yang
2. 2. + Outline Objective Market Introduction Methodology Findings Recommendations Limitations
3. 3. + Objective The objective is to help the marketing managers of Ford forecast the market share of its upgraded 2015 models- Edge, Flex, and Explorer in U.S market in 2015. Two step: Predict the size of mid-sized SUV market in 2015. Predict the share of Ford in the mid-sized SUV market in 2015.
4. 4. + Competitors
5. 5. + 2014 Midsize SUV Market Share FORD 29% GMC 7% HONDA 9% HYUDAI 9% JEEP 15% MAZDA 1% NISSAN 11% TOYOTA 19%
6. 6. + Midsize SUV Sale 2010-2014 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ford GMC honda Hyudai jeep mazda nissan toyota
7. 7. + Methodology Data collection 1) Sales figures for each brand 2) Car attributes, price and customer rating 3) Selling expenses for each brand 4) Us population and inflation rate Distribution Chart Monthly car sales figures Regression Model Forecast for 2015 market size 1) Correlation for variables 2) Minimized SSE by Solver Market Share Model 1) Calculate market share for 2010-2013 as calibration 2) Predict market share for 2014 as validation and calculate MAPE 3) Use 2015 predicted market size to calculate market share in 2015
8. 8. + Finding Distribution chart 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Monthly Sale Monthly sale
9. 9. + Finding 2015 Market Size Forecast Regression Model: Variables Best Conservative Worst Inflation rate 2.52 2.1 1.68 Population growth rate 0.87% 0.73% 0.58% From the coefficient, inflation and population has positive impact on market size. Best and worst forecast for the variables below: Market Size =54.47+0.02195ln(Inflation)+11.8624ln(Population)
10. 10. + Finding Market Size Forecast 1194006 1221269 1246536 1086285 1086285 1086285 1000000 1050000 1100000 1150000 1200000 1250000 1300000 Worst Regular Best 2015Market Size 2014Market Size
11. 11. + Finding Marketing Share Forecast Variable Ford GMC Honda Hyudai Jeep Mazda Nissan Toyota bo 0.0000 0.2658 0.0498 0.1027 0.1466 0.0449 0.0290 0.0497 b(ln_price) 0.1327 1.0309 -0.7357 0.0597 -0.6308 -1.0053 -0.4015 -0.6750 b(liter) -6.1431 1.1147 -0.0758 -5.3076 -0.4172 -0.1024 -0.1433 -0.5304 b(seats) 0.1196 1.8296 -0.3310 -2.9378 0.0752 -0.2597 -0.3464 -0.0379 b(ln_weight) -0.1337 1.3674 -0.3506 -0.1350 -0.7138 -0.3179 -0.9856 -0.1221 b(customer) -0.1666 -6.1946 0.0462 2.0247 -0.3007 -0.3393 -0.3810 -0.6372 b(ln_selling) 0.6203 -0.8303 -0.4246 0.0074 -0.0856 -0.0856 0.1092 -0.1398 Coefficient table for market share model: GMC got most positive impact from variables - Price, Liter, Seats, Weight
12. 12. + Finding Brand Sales Forecast 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 Ford GMC Honda Hyudai Jeep Mazda Nissan Toyota worst regular best
13. 13. + Finding Market Share Changes 2015 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% Ford GMC Honda Hyudai Jeep Mazda Nissan Toyota 2014 2015
14. 14. + Findings Market Share 31.55% 19.51% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Ford 2014 2015 12%
15. 15. + Recommendations Higher the price of its mid-sized SUV and increase its selling expense (advertisement) to increase its market share. Rolling out model with 7 seats may be a more profitable option for Ford. Rolling out new models with smaller engine size and lighter curb weight may help Ford to increase its market share.
16. 16. + Model limitation With overfull variables for cars attribute, we have difficulty to put all of them into our regression model and market share model. Due to the financial reports from companies are annual and global based, we could not obtain the monthly and national data for the Marketing and Advertising expenses.
17. 17. + Thank you!