Maritime Transportation System: Trends and Outlook 2013-03-08آ  Maritime Transportation System: Trends

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  • Maritime Transportation System: Trends and Outlook 2007-R-5

    13 March 2007

  • Water is an essential resource in the U.S. economy. It plays a crucial role in supporting many economic activities and ensuring the quality of human life and the health of ecological systems. Despite this, the value of water may not be widely appreciated because only some water resources and water uses are easily visible or noticed while others are not.

    Among the Institute for Water Resources (IWR) Future Directions program activities are the identification of emerging water challenges and opportunities and the tactical engagement of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) senior leaders on these issues. Such critical thinking is an essential prerequisite to strategy development and planning.

    IWR has developed this series of Water Resources Outlook papers, commissioned utilizing outside experts, to identify emerging issues and implications for the Nation. These issues and implications will be presented in the form of “provocation sessions” with external and internal subject matter experts and stakeholders and will inform the USACE strategic planning process.

    Maritime Transportation System: Trends and Outlook

    USACE major responsibilities for waterborne commerce include dredging, development and maintenance of the inland and coastal waterways and related maritime infrastructure, and navigation aids. A firm understanding of marine transportation conditions and trends is critical in discharging those responsibilities.

    The U.S. Maritime Transportation System (MTS) no longer exists in isolation, but must interact with ports, land carriers, customers, communities, environmental restrictions and security concerns. This second in a series of Water Resources Outlook papers is intended to develop an understanding of the challenges faced by the MTS over the next 30 years and suggests roles for the private and governmental sectors, including the Corps. It is intended to provide a strong, fact-based foundation for policy, planning and priorities.

  • Maritime Transportation System: Trends and Outlook 2007-R-5

    13 March 2007

    CDM The Tioga Group

  • 2007-R-5 iii Institute for Water Resources

    Contents

    Exhibits ......................................................................................................................................... vii

    Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... xi ES.1 Background................................................................................................................................ xi ES.2 World U.S. Economics and Trade Trends ............................................................................. xi

    ES.2.1 Moderate World Economic Growth.................................................................................................xi ES.2.2 Trade Shifts................................................................................................................................... xiii ES.2.3 Freer Trade.....................................................................................................................................xiv ES.2.4 Moderate U.S. Economic Growth..................................................................................................xiv ES.2.5 Growing U.S. Trade .......................................................................................................................xiv ES.2.6 Growing Trade Imbalance ..............................................................................................................xv ES.2.7 Potential Backlash..........................................................................................................................xvi

    ES.3 U.S. Domestic Logistics and Transportation Trends .........................................................xvi ES.3.1 Pressure on Logistics Costs............................................................................................................xvi ES.3.2 Transportation Capacity Limits.................................................................................................... xvii ES.3.3 Minimal Technology Impacts ...................................................................................................... xvii ES.3.4 Minimal Security Impacts ........................................................................................................... xviii

    ES.4 Container Shipping Trends ................................................................................................ xviii ES.4.1 Containerized Trade Growth....................................................................................................... xviii ES.4.2 Larger Container Vessels ................................................................................................................xx ES.4.3 Load Centering...............................................................................................................................xxi ES.4.4 Liner Trade Consolidation ........................................................................................................... xxii ES.4.5 Containerization of Break-Bulk Cargo ........................................................................................ xxii

    ES.5 Bulk Shipping Trends ...........................................................................................................xxii ES.5.1 Bulk Vessel Shifts........................................................................................................................xxiv ES.5.2 Liquid Natural Gas Shipping .......................................................................................................xxiv

    ES.6 Inland Waterways Trends ...................................................................................................xxiv ES.6.1 Domestic Shipping Volume .........................................................................................................xxiv ES.6.2 Inland Waterways Business Conditions........................................................................................xxv ES.6.3 Waterway System Funding ...........................................................................................................xxv ES.6.4 Short-Sea Shipping Initiatives......................................................................................................xxvi ES.6.5 Great Lakes ..................................................................................................................................xxvi

    ES.7 Panama Canal........................................................................................................................xxvi ES.8 Port Trends .......................................................................................................................... xxvii

    ES.8.1 Container Port Capacity and Productivity.................................................................................. xxvii ES.8.2 Public-Private Partnerships ....................................................................................................... xxviii ES.8.3 Port Consolidation and Coordination...........................................................................................xxix ES.8.4 Break-Bulk Terminals..................................................................................................................xxix ES.8.5 West Coast Port Competition.......................................................................................................xxix ES.8.6 East Coast Port Competition ........................................................................................................xxxi

    ES.9 Gulf Port Trends ..................................................................................................................xxxii ES.10 Climate Change: Global Warming ....................................................................................xxxii

    ES.10.1 Increased Flooding and Storms.................................................................................................. xxxii ES.10.2 Inland Waterways Water Level................................................................................................. xxxiii ES.10.3 Rising Sea Level ....................................................................................................................... xxxiii ES.10.4 Northwest Passage Opening.......................................................................................................xxxiv

    ES.11 Shifting Roles.......................................................................................................................xxxiv

  • Contents

    Institute for Water Resources iv 2007-R-5

    ES.12 A Pro-Active Environmental Role? ..................................................................................xxxvi ES.13 National Policy Outlook ....................................................................................................xxxvi

    Section 1 Introduction......................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Purpose........................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Scope............................................................................

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