Manila, Philippines

20 October 2011

Main challenges in the Pacific subregion

Session 4: The MDGs in the Pacific Island Countries and Territories

International Conference on MDGS

Content

• Introduction• Data availability in the Pacific

– Assessment based on the MDG global database– Comparison country data vs. data in global MDG database

• Conclusion

2

Introduction

• Since 2004, ESCAP/ADB/UNDP have produced six regional reports on MDGs in Asia and the Pacific

• The progress assessments are based on data from the global database on official MDG Indicators

• Analysis of the trends determine whether countries are on or off track

Four categories are used:● Early achiever On track Off track-Slow Off track-No progress/regressing

3

Global database on official MDG Indicators

Ministries and statistical offices generate official

statistics

Data collected through surveys

carried out/sponsored by

international agencies

International agencies

4

Ministries and statistical offices generate official

statisticsData collected

from NSS

Data collected through surveys

carried out/sponsored by

international agencies

Data from surveys to fill gaps

Global MDG database

Adjustments and estimates to ensure

comparability

• Due to time lags and the necessary adjustments or estimation, discrepancies may occur between national and international data series

• Such discrepancies could result in differences in the assessment of a country’s progress in reaching certain MDG targets

The progress assessment

• The progress assessment for a given MDG target is produced on the basis of the trend since 1990

• It requires a minimum of two data points that are at least three years apart (sufficient for estimating trends)

• In this analysis country data contained in the MDG database as of 30 September 2011 has been reviewed

• The assessment excludes indicators of Goal 8

5More information on the progress assessment: http://www.unescap.org/stat/statpub/mdg-progress-classification/TN-01-progress-classification.pdf

Subregional picture

6

Situation in the Pacific

Only 57.64% met the data requirements to assess the progress

7

Situation in the Pacific

Type of data fromthe latest available point for the assessment

– Many data points are estimated or adjusted by internationalagencies

8

Goal

$1.2

5 pe

r da

y po

vert

y

Und

erw

eigh

t ch

ildre

n

Prim

ary

enro

lmen

t

Rea

chin

g la

st g

rade

Prim

ary

com

plet

ion

Gen

der

prim

ary

Gen

der

seco

ndar

y

Gen

der

tert

iary

Und

er-5

mor

talit

y

Infa

nt m

orta

lity

Mat

erna

l mor

talit

y

Ski

lled

birt

h at

tend

ance

Ant

enat

al c

are

(? 1

vis

it)

HIV

pre

vale

nce

TB

inci

denc

e

TB

pre

vale

nce

For

est

cove

r

Pro

tect

ed a

rea

CO

2 em

issi

ons

OD

P s

ubst

ance

con

sum

ptio

n

Saf

e dr

inki

ng w

ater

Bas

ic s

anita

tion

American Samoa E E C ECook Islands C C C C E E CA E E C E G C E EFiji C C C C C E E M CA E E E C E G CFrench Polynesia E E C E G E EGuam E E C E E EKiribati E E C C E E CA CA E E C E G C E EMarshall Islands C C C C C E E CA E E C E G C E EMicronesia (F.S.) C E E CA E E C E G C E ENauru E C C E E E E E E G CNew Caledonia E E C E GNiue E C C E E CA E E E E G C E ENorthern Mariana Islands E E C E E EPalau C E E E E CA E E C E G C E EPapua New Guinea C C E E M CA CA E E E C E G C E ESamoa E C C C E E CA E E E E G C E ESolomon Islands C C C E E M CA E E C E G C E ETonga E C C C E E E CA E E C E G C E ETuvalu C C E E CA E E E E C E EVanuatu C C C C C C E E CA E E C E G C E E

Pac

ific

4 5 6 71 2 3

C – Country data; CA – Country adjusted; E – Estimated; M – Modeled; G – Global monitoring data;

Situation in the Pacific

Number of data points available forthe assessment

9

Goal

$1.2

5 pe

r da

y po

vert

y

Und

erw

eigh

t ch

ildre

n

Prim

ary

enro

lmen

t

Rea

chin

g la

st g

rade

Prim

ary

com

plet

ion

Gen

der

prim

ary

Gen

der

seco

ndar

y

Gen

der

tert

iary

Und

er-5

mor

talit

y

Infa

nt m

orta

lity

Mat

erna

l mor

talit

y

Ski

lled

birt

h at

tend

ance

Ant

enat

al c

are

(? 1

vis

it)

HIV

pre

vale

nce

TB

inci

denc

e

TB

pre

vale

nce

For

est

cove

r

Pro

tect

ed a

rea

CO

2 em

issi

ons

OD

P s

ubst

ance

con

sum

ptio

n

Saf

e dr

inki

ng w

ater

Bas

ic s

anita

tion

American Samoa 19 19 4 21Cook Islands 3 2 9 9 21 21 4 20 20 4 21 19 14 4 5Fiji 6 4 10 11 11 21 21 5 3 20 20 20 4 21 19 20French Polynesia 20 20 4 21 19 5 5Guam 20 20 4 21 5 5Kiribati 3 7 10 10 21 21 4 2 20 20 4 21 19 18 4 4Marshall Islands 3 3 8 11 9 21 21 2 20 20 4 21 19 20 5 5Micronesia (F.S.) 3 21 21 3 20 20 4 21 10 16 4 4Nauru 4 9 9 21 21 20 20 4 21 19 16New Caledonia 20 20 4 21 19Niue 4 5 5 21 21 5 19 20 4 21 19 14 5 5Northern Mariana Islands 20 20 4 21 5 4Palau 3 6 6 21 21 5 20 20 4 21 19 16 4 4Papua New Guinea 2 8 21 21 5 3 2 20 20 20 4 21 19 19 5 5Samoa 8 8 9 8 21 21 3 20 20 4 21 19 19 4 5Solomon Islands 4 10 10 21 21 5 3 20 20 4 21 19 20 3 3Tonga 5 6 9 7 6 21 21 4 20 20 4 21 19 16 4 5Tuvalu 7 8 21 21 4 20 20 4 21 18 5 5Vanuatu 2 7 4 9 12 9 21 21 4 20 20 4 21 19 16 5 4

1 2 3 4

Pac

ific

5 6 7

Situation in the Pacific

Year fromthe latest available point for the assessment

10

Goal

$1.2

5 pe

r da

y po

vert

y

Und

erw

eigh

t ch

ildre

n

Prim

ary

enro

lmen

t

Rea

chin

g la

st g

rade

Prim

ary

com

plet

ion

Gen

der

prim

ary

Gen

der

seco

ndar

y

Gen

der

tert

iary

Und

er-5

mor

talit

y

Infa

nt m

orta

lity

Mat

erna

l mor

talit

y

Ski

lled

birt

h at

tend

ance

Ant

enat

al c

are

(? 1

vis

it)

HIV

pre

vale

nce

TB

inci

denc

e

TB

pre

vale

nce

For

est

cove

r

Pro

tect

ed a

rea

CO

2 em

issi

ons

OD

P s

ubst

ance

con

sum

ptio

n

Saf

e dr

inki

ng w

ater

Bas

ic s

anita

tion

American Samoa 09 09 10 10Cook Islands 07 07 09 09 10 10 06 09 09 10 10 08 09 05 08Fiji 08 03 08 08 08 10 10 08 08 09 09 09 10 10 08 09French Polynesia 09 09 10 10 08 08 08Guam 09 09 10 10 08 08Kiribati 02 05 08 08 10 10 08 08 09 09 10 10 08 09 05 05Marshall Islands 07 08 09 09 09 10 10 07 09 09 10 10 08 09 08 08Micronesia (F.S.) 07 10 10 08 09 09 10 10 08 09 05 05Nauru 07 08 08 10 10 09 09 10 10 08 09New Caledonia 09 09 10 10 08Niue 05 05 05 10 10 08 08 09 10 10 08 09 08 08Northern Mariana Islands 09 09 10 10 08 05Palau 04 07 07 10 10 08 09 09 10 10 08 09 05 05Papua New Guinea 00 06 10 10 08 06 06 09 09 09 10 10 08 09 08 08Samoa 09 09 09 09 10 10 09 09 09 10 10 08 09 05 08Solomon Islands 07 07 07 10 10 08 07 09 09 10 10 08 09 05 05Tonga 06 06 06 06 04 10 10 08 09 09 10 10 08 09 08 08Tuvalu 06 06 10 10 07 09 09 10 10 09 08 08Vanuatu 07 05 08 09 09 09 10 10 07 09 09 10 10 08 09 08 08

Pac

ific

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Situation in the Pacific

Changes in data availability in timeby indicator

– However, data availability have increased substantiallybetween 2004 and 2011

11

2004 Dataset – downloaded on 23 November 2004; 2011 Dataset – downloaded 30 September 2011Both from the United Nations MDG Indicators database

Indicator

Number of countries without enough data for assessment

Percentage (%) of countries without enough data for assessment

Number of countries without enough data for assessment

Percentage (%) of countries without enough data for assessment

$1.25 per day poverty 19 100.0 19 100.0

Underweight children 19 100.0 18 98.2

Primary enrolment 13 89.1 11 85.5

Reaching last grade 17 96.4 16 94.5

Primary completion 13 89.1 7 78.2

Gender primary 13 89.1 5 74.5

Gender secondary 14 90.9 8 80.0

Under-5 mortality 6 76.4 5 74.5

Infant mortality 6 76.4 5 74.5

Skilled birth attendance 19 100.0 6 76.4

HIV prevalence 17 96.4 17 96.4

TB prevalence 19 100.0 0 65.5

Forest cover 4 72.7 0 65.5

Protected area 19 100.0 0 65.5

CO2 emissions 8 80.0 4 72.7

Safe drinking water 5 74.5 4 72.7

Basic sanitation 5 74.5 4 72.7

2004 Dataset(19 countries)

2011 Dataset(19 countries)

Situation in the Pacific

Changes in data availability in timeby country

12

2004 Dataset – downloaded on 23 November 2004; 2011 Dataset – downloaded 30 September 2011Both from the United Nations MDG Indicators database

American Samoa 16 94.1 14 82.4Cook Islands 11 64.7 4 23.5Fiji 8 47.1 4 23.5French Polynesia 14 82.4 11 64.7Guam 14 82.4 12 70.6Kiribati 11 64.7 4 23.5Marshall Islands 13 76.5 3 17.6Micronesia (F.S.) 12 70.6 7 41.2Nauru 14 82.4 8 47.1New Caledonia 16 94.1 13 76.5Niue 10 58.8 5 29.4Northern Mariana Islands 14 82.4 12 70.6Palau 11 64.7 5 29.4Papua New Guinea 5 29.4 5 29.4Samoa 7 41.2 4 23.5Solomon Islands 13 76.5 5 29.4Tonga 6 35.3 4 23.5Tuvalu 13 76.5 7 41.2Vanuatu 8 47.1 2 11.8

Pa

cific

2004 Dataset(17 indicators)

2011 Dataset(17 indicators)

Number of indicators with insufficient data for assessment

Percentage (%) of indicators with

insufficient data for assessment

Number of indicators with insufficient data for assessment

Percentage (%) of indicators with

insufficient data for assessment

Situation in the Pacific

• Countries generate their own data which are not always reflected in the

global MDG dataset• For example, Tonga

13Data for Tonga: http://www.spc.int/prism/country/to/stats/MDG/mdgind.htm

IndicatorNumber of

observationsNumber of

observations Remarks$1.25 per day poverty 2Underweight children * 2Primary enrolment 5 4 No coincidencesReaching last grade 1 4Primary completion 6Gender primary 9 4 No coincidencesGender secondary 7 4 No coincidencesGender tertiary 6 3 No coincidencesUnder-5 mortality 21 4 No coincidencesInfant mortality 21 7 No coincidencesMaternal mortality 4Skilled birth attendance 4 4 Some coincidencesAntenatal care (= 1 visit) 1 3TB incidence 20 5TB prevalence 20 5 No coincidencesForest cover 4 4 No coincidencesProtected area 21 1CO2 emissions 19 2 Some coincidencesODP substance consumption 16Safe drinking water 4 * 3 No coincidencesWater, urban 4 * 2 No coincidencesWater, rural 4 * 2 No coincidencesBasic sanitation 5 * 3 No coincidencesSanitation, urban 5 * 2 No coincidencesSanitation, rural 5

Global MDG dataset Country data

*First value before 1990

Challenges

• Improve coordination between countries and international agencies

• Reduce/understand the discrepancies between national and international data

14

Thank you

15