Managing Complexity in the Face of Uncertaintysite.iugaza.edu.ps/.../09/EPM-Chap-5-How-to-Plan-a-TPM-projec1.pdf · Managing Complexity in the Face of Uncertainty ... Each activity

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Islamic University, Gaza - Palestine

Effective Project Management: Traditional, Agile, Extreme

Managing Complexity inthe Face of Uncertainty

Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project


Use tools, templates, and processes to plan a TPM project Discuss the importance of planning Apply software packages to plan projects Plan & conduct the Joint Project Planning Session (JPPS) Build the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Estimate task duration, resource requirements, cost Construct the project network diagram Write an effective project proposal Gain approval to launch the project

After successful studying this chapter You should be able to:


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Figure05-01

The Pain Curve

GoodPlanning

PoorPlanning

Pain

Time18-36%


Planning Reduces Uncertainty Planning Increases Understanding Planning Improves Efficiency

The Importance of Planning


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Yes Very large projects Distributed teams Extensive use of vendors and contractors

No Small projects Short duration project increments Adds too much non-value-added work Frequent scope and requirements changes

Using Software Packages to Plan a Project



Sticky notes (various colors) Marking pens (assorted colors) Plenty (a lot) of whiteboard space

Project Planning Tools


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Task ID Unique task name Task duration Task labor Resource requirements Task manager ES, EF, LS, and LF (calculated values) Critical Path (calculated)

Uses for Sticky Notes



Define dependency relationships Identify the critical path

Uses for Marking Pens


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Project Overview Statement Work Breakdown Structure Dependency Diagram Initial Project Schedule Final Project Schedule Resource Schedule Issues Log Updated Project Schedule

Uses for the Whiteboard



Very small projects < ½ day Small projects < 1 day Medium projects 2 days Large projects 3-4 days Very large projects ???

How Much Time Should Planning Take?


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Attendees Facilities Equipment Agenda Deliverables Project Proposal(Joint Project Planning Session)

The JPPS Meeting Components



Facilitator Project manager Another project manager JPP consultant Technographer Core project team Client representative Resource managers Project champion Functional managers Process owner

The JPPS Attendees


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Facilities Comfortable Away from interruptions (off-site or on-site) Break-out rooms?

Equipment Break-out group work areas (table, chairs, flip charts) Whiteboards Projection equipment

The JPPS Facilities & Equipment



Session #1 Negotiate the COS Build the RBS

Session #2 Write the POS

Session #3 Part 1: Kick-off Part 2: Working session

The Complete JPPS Agenda


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Session #1 Project ManagerClient

Session #2 Project ManagerClientProject Team (known members)

Session #3 Project ManagerEntire Project Team

Who’s Involved in the Planning Process?



Introduction of Sponsor Sponsor overview of the project and its importance to

the company/division/department Introduction of the client co-project manager Introduction of the IT co-project manager Introduction of the core project team Introduction of the planning facilitation team (facilitator

and technographer)

The JPPS Agenda – Session #3 Planning Kick-off


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Validation & prioritization of requirements Overview of the project planning approach to be taken Generation and validation of the WBS Estimate duration, labor and resource requirements Creation of the dependency diagram Discuss critical path and project completion date Analysis and schedule compression as needed Identification of project risks and mitigation plans Planning team consensus on project plan contents Adjournment

JPPS Agenda – Session #3 Working session



Review the POS for clarity Create Work Breakdown Structure Estimate task duration and resource needs Construct project network diagram Determine critical path Revise and approve project schedule Finalize resource schedule Gain consensus on the project plan

Planning Session Activities


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The Role of the Client in the JPPS

The client or their representative must be present. Validation of requirements and POS Prioritizing requirements (MoSCoW) Generating and validating the WBS Commitment of resources from the client Agreement on the project plan Client must own the project plan Meaningful involvement by the client



Prioritizing requirements (MoSCoW)

• M MUST Describes a requirement that must be satisfied in the finalsolution for the solution to be considered a success.

• S SHOULD Represents a high-priority item that should be included inthe solution if it is possible. This is often a critical requirement but onewhich can be satisfied in other ways if strictly necessary.

• C COULD Describes a requirement which is considered desirable butnot necessary. This will be included if time and resources permit.

• W WON'T Represents a requirement that stakeholders have agreed willnot be implemented in a given release, but may be considered for thefuture. (note: occasionally the word "Would" is substituted for "Won't"to give a clearer understanding of this choice).


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The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a hierarchicaldescription of all of the work that must be done to meetthe needs of the client.

Definition of the WBS



The RBS

Figure05-02Each activity is a further decomposition of the WBS.


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Hierarchical visualization of the WBS

Figure05-03Work Package

SubfunctionSubfunctionSubfunction

FunctionFunctionFunction

ActivityTask #1 Task #2 Task #3 . . . . Task #n

Macro-Level

Micro-Level

Mid- Level

GOAL



Thought process tool Architectural design tool Planning tool Project status reporting tool

Uses for the WBS?


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Converting the RBS to the WBS (Figure 5.2) Team Approach Sub-team Approach

Top-Down Approach Team Approach Sub-team Approach

Bottom-Up Approach

Which is best?When?Why?

Generating the WBS



Status and completion are measurable The activity is bounded The activity has a deliverable Time and cost are easily estimated Activity duration is within acceptable limits Work assignments are independent(SMART)

WBS Completion Criteria


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The client didn’t participate in building the WBS likeyou expected.

You have an uncomfortable feeling Scope change is likely to be a big part of the project Choose a PMLC model that accommodates frequent

change

WBS Completion Criteria – (cont.)



Stopping Before Completion Criteria Are Met Decomposing Beyond Completion of the Criteria Short duration projects High risk activities Large duration variance

WBS Completion Criteria – Exceptions


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RBS is a subset of the WBS

Figure05-04

Project goaland solution

Requirement1

Function1.1

Feature1.2.1.1

Featuren.3.1

Sub-function1.2.3

Requirement n

Function1.2

Function1.3

Functionn.1

Functionn.2

Functionn.3

Sub-function1.2.2

Sub-function1.2.1

Featuren.3.2

Featuren.3.3

Featuren.3.4

Feature1.2.1.2

Feature1.2.1.3

Feature1.2.1.4

Activity1.2.1.1.1

Task1.2.1.1.3.3

Activity1.2.1.1.2

Activity1.2.1.1.3

Task1.2.1.1.3.2

Task1.2.1.1.3.1

Activityn.3.4.1

Taskn.3.4.3.3

Activityn.3.4.2

Activityn.3.4.3

Taskn.3.4.3.2

Taskn.3.4.3.1

RBS WBS



Noun-type Approaches Physical components Functional components

Verb-type Approaches Design-build-test-implement Objectives

Organizational approaches Geographic Departmental Business process

Which is best?When?Why?

Approaches to Building the WBS


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Graphical WBS for a HouseHOUSE

SITE FOUNDATION

FRAMING WALLS ROOFING UTILITIES LANDSCAPING FINISHWORK

Layout Grade Excavate

ErectForms

PourConcrete

Removeforms

InstallSheathing

LayShingles

HangSheetrock

Tape& Bed ELECT. GAS WATER

DoRough-in

Work

DoRough-in

Work

DoRough-in

Work

GetBuildingInspect.

GetBuildingInspect.

GetBuildingInspect.

DoFinishWork

DoFinishWork

DoFinishWork

InstallCabinets

InstallAppliances

InstallFurnace

LayCarpet

PaintWalls &Molding

HangWallpaper

LayTile

FLOORJOISTS

SUB-FLOOR

STUDWALLS

FRAMEROOF

Install1st

Floor

Install1st

Floor

Install1st

Floor

Install2nd

Floor

Install2nd

Floor

Install2nd

Floor

Figure05-05



Indented Outline WBS for a House1. SITE PREPARATION

1.1. Layout1.2. Grading1.3. Excavation

2. FOUNDATION2.1. Erect Forms2.2. Pour Concrete2.3. Remove Forms

3. FRAMING3.1. Floor Joists

3.1.1. Install first floor joists3.1.2. Install second floor joists

3.2. Sub-flooring3.2.1. Install first floor sub-flooring3.2.2. Install second floor sub-flooring

3.3. Stud Walls3.3.1. Erect first floor stud walls3.3.2. Erect second floor stud walls

3.4. Frame the roofFigure05-06


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WBS for a Waterfall SDMSYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

ImplementationDefinition Design

State objectives

Define requirements

Choose SDM

Get approval

Functional

Technical

Programming

Installation

Operation

Source code

JCL

Documentation

Get approval

Testing

Training

Cut-over

Operate system

Review

Audit

Get approval

Clarify request

Establish objectives

Identify key issues

Obtain current doc.

Define new reqmts

Identify interfaces

Design I/O

Confirm specs

Define pgm specs

Prepare system flow

Convert data

Build integration test plan

Get approval

Construct codeConduct unit testConstruct JCLConduct system test

Finalize test planCreate test dataConduct testConduct operations trainingConduct user trainingFinalize planConvert dataCut-over to production

Establish planReview performance

Complete financial analysisAnalyze risks

Specaudits/controls

Get approval

Figure05-07



Saves planning time Builds on prior experience Standardizes the planning and management of

projects using the templates Provides a structure for collecting and using

estimated/actual duration and cost data Focuses process quality improvement efforts

Using WBS Templates


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Update an application with new functionality Distribute a new release of a software package Install a network in a field office Update training materials Develop new training materials

Typical Recurring Projects



Figure05-08

2

4

6

8

10

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

L = DLabor

Duration

L = .75D

33% unplanned interruptions

MODEL ASSUMPTIONS* Individuals work at 75 percent efficiency rate.* Unplanned interruptions account for 33 percent of clock time.

Elapsed time (duration) versus work time (labor)Ch05: How to Plan a TPM Project

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Estimate duration to build the schedule anddetermine when the project will be completed

Estimate labor when you have to contain expenseswithin a budget

Should I Estimate Task Duration or Task Labor?



1. Pick up the chair2. Carry it to the door3. Set the chair down4. Open the door5. Hold the door open

with your foot as youpick up the chair

6. Carry the chair outthe door

7. Set the chair in thehallway

Time

# of people on the team

1 2 3 4

Resource Loading vs. Task DurationCh05: How to Plan a TPM Project

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Varying skill levels Unexpected events Efficiency of work time Mistakes and misunderstandings Variation within the capability of the system Common cause variation

Causes of Variation in Duration



Extrapolating based on similarity to other activities Studying historical data Seeking expert advice Applying the Delphi Technique (Fig 5.9) Applying the Three-point technique (Fig 5.10) Applying the Wide-band Delphi technique

Six Methods for Estimating Task Duration


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Wideband Delphi

Wideband Delphi is a process for reaching a consensusestimate of project effort– Wideband Delphi is a repeatable / iterative process because

it consists of a straightforward sequence of steps.

PM chooses an estimation team that include reps from all projectareas (managers, developers, architect, QA, writers, etc).– every team member should have stake in plan– should understand Delphi Process

Moderator: someone who understands Delphi Process buthas no stake in the results

Observers: selected stakeholders or users.– encourages trust in the estimation process– sense of ownership in the results


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1. Vision and Scope documents have been agreed on bystakeholders

2. Kick-off meeting has been scheduled3. Estimation meeting has been scheduled (1-2 hrs)4. Moderator chosen (not the PM)5. Agreement on the goal of the estimation session

Wideband Delphi: Entry Criteria

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Step 1: Choose the team– PM selects estimation team and a moderator.– team consists of 3 - 7 project team members.– moderator should be familiar with Delphi process, but

should not have a stake in the outcome– PM should not be the moderator (he should be part of the

estimation team)

Wideband Delphi - Steps


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Wideband Delphi Steps

Step 2: Kickoff Meeting– each member has read the vision and scope document and

any other documentation, and is familiar with the projectneeds.

– brainstorm and write down assumptions– brainstorm to generate a WBS with 10-20 tasks– team decides on a unit of estimation (man-hours, days,

pages, ...)

Wideband Delphi - Steps

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Step 3: Individual Preparation– each member generates his own initial estimates for all

tasks in the WBS• identify subtasks may help clarify an estimate

– for each task, the team member writes:1. estimate of effort required to complete task2. any assumptions needed to make the estimate

• write down any new tasks the were missed duringbrainstorming session

Wideband Delphi- Step 3: Individual Preparation


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Step 4: Estimation Session– Each team member fills out an estimation form which

contains his estimate for each task– give the form to the moderator– rest of the estimation session consists of rounds where

each estimation team member revises her estimates basedon group discussion.

• Individual estimate(s) are not disclosed

Wideband Delphi- Steps

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Step 4: Estimation Session (2)– moderator collects the estimation forms and plots the

sum of the effort from each form on a line:

Wideband Delphi


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Step 4: Estimation Session (3)– team resolves any issues or disagreements that are

brought up.– individual estimate times are not discussed.

Disagreements are usually about the tasks themselves.– Disagreements are often resolved by adding

assumptions.

Wideband Delphi: Estimation

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Step 4: Estimation Session (4)– team members each revise their individual estimates

and gives them to moderator.– The moderator updates the plot with the new total



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Step 4: Estimation Session (loop)– moderator leads the team through several rounds of

estimates to gain consensus on estimates.

Exit Criteria– The estimation session continues until the estimates

converge or the team is unwilling to revise estimates.– Process also ends if time limit (2 hours) has elapsed.


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First Pass

Second Pass

Third Pass

The Delphi Technique

Figure05-09



The Three-Point Method, (SIX-Point Estimate Method)

O M PE

O: OptimisticP: PessimisticM: Most Likely

O + 4M + P6E =

Figure05-10


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Estimates Have a Life Cycle Too

time

range

You will be smarter tomorrowthan you are today.

Figure05-11



People Facilities Equipment Money Materials

Estimating Resource Requirements


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Assigning Staff to Activities

Figure05-12



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Single Point Estimate and Three Point Estimates

• Single Point Estimate– We take a single estimate per task

• Three point Estimate– We take three estimates per task

• Optimistic Estimate – Best Case Scenario• Pessimistic Estimate – Worst Case Scenario• Most Likely Estimate

– Average the three estimates to get a three point estimate

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Three-Point Estimates

• Instead of providing activity estimates as a discretenumber, such as four weeks, it’s often helpful to create athree-point estimate:– An estimate that includes an optimistic, most likely, and

pessimistic estimate, such as three weeks for the optimistic,four weeks for the most likely, and five weeks for thepessimistic estimate.

• Three-point estimates are needed for PERT estimates.• Six point Estimates

• (PERT: Project Evaluation & Review Techniques)


• Three point EstimateExample:– Optimistic = 6 hours– Pessimistic = 10 hours– Most Likely = 8 hours

• The three point estimate is(6+10+8)/3 = 8 hours

Three-Point Estimate: Example

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Six-point Estimate (PERT)

– We take three estimates per task• Optimistic Estimate – Best Case Scenario• Pessimistic Estimate – Worst Case Scenario• Most Likely Estimate

– Multiply the Most Likely estimate by 4, add to the Optimisticand Pessimistic estimates and divide by 6

(Pert Estimate: E = (O + 4M + P) / 6 )


Example:– Optimistic = 6 hours– Pessimistic = 10 hours– Most Likely = 8 hours

• The six point estimate is(6+10+4x8)/6 = 8 hours

Six-Point Estimate (PERT): Example

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Resource Organizational Structure

Figure05-13



Order of magnitude estimate Budget estimate Definitive estimate Cost Budgeting Cost Control Weekly reports Baseline versus actual

Estimating Cost


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Design

Build

Test

Install

time

Network-based Scheduling – Gantt Charts



Network-based Scheduling – Task on the Arrow

Figure05-14


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Network-based Scheduling – Task on the node format

Figure05-15



ES

EID

LS LF

EF

SLACK

(ES: Early Start, EF: Early Finish, LS: Late Start, LF: Late Finish)

Figure05-16


Task Node

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Diagramming Conventions

Figure05-17



Dependency Relationships

A B

A

B

A

B

B

FS: When A finishes, B may start

FF: When A finishes, B may finish

SS: When A starts, B may start

SF: When A starts, B may finishAFigure05-18


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Technical constraints Discretionary constraints Best practice constraints Logical constraints Unique requirements constraints

Management constraints Inter-project constraints Date constraints No earlier than No later than On this date

Lag variables

Dependency Constraints



• The Forward Pass – Early Schedule– Left to right (start to finish)– Determines Early Start and Early Finish– ES + duration – 1 = EF

• Backward Pass – Late Schedule– Right to left (finish to start)– Determines Late Start and Late Finish– LF - duration + 1 = LS

Paths Through the Network


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Forward Pass Calculations – Early Schedule

Figure05-19



Backward Pass Calculations – Late Schedule

Figure05-20


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Critical Path

Figure05-21



ES LFDuration

SlackTask

Early Start to Late Finish Window

Figure05-22


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• Total Slack– Time that a task can be delayed without impacting the early

schedule of the project.

• Free Slack– Time a task can be delayed without impacting the early

schedule of its successor tasks.

Slack Time

Do Not Plan to Use Slackto Bail Out the Project!



1. Enter task name and duration into software tool2. Print PERT Diagram3. Cut out each task node and affix to a Sticky Note4. Write task ID # on Post-It Note5. Place Sticky Notes on right side of whiteboard6. Position start node on left side of whiteboard7. Move all tasks with no predecessor to left side and connect to

start node8. Move all tasks on the right side with predecessors on the left

side to the left side and connect with single line9. Continue until all task nodes have been moved to left side

Building the Initial Dependency Diagram


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Replace FS with SS dependencies

Replace a team member with a more skilled person

Add resources From non-critical path tasks to critical path tasks From other projects To where

critical path tasks high-risk tasks tasks with large duration variances

Schedule Compression TechniquesCh05: How to Plan a TPM Project


Schedule Compression Iterations

Figure05-23


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Schedule compression doesn’t come free.

Schedule Compression

What is the impact on the project due to schedulecompression?



DO NOT PAD ACTIVITY DURATION A percentage (5 – 10) of total project work hours The last activity in the project A schedule contingency for the unexpected Make it visible and manage it

Management Reserve


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Executive Summary Background Objective Overview of the approach to be taken Detailed statement of work Time and cost summary Appendices

Contents of the Project Proposal



The cost/benefit is not in your favor The risks of failure are too high The total project cost exceeds available funding There are other projects competing for the same

resources

Gaining Approval to Launch the Project


Documents

Managing Complexity in the Face of Uncertaintysite.iugaza.edu.ps/.../09/EPM-Chap-5-How-to-Plan-a-TPM-projec1.pdf · Managing Complexity in the Face of Uncertainty ... Each activity