[FEBRUARY 3, 2016]WHITBY-OSHAWA

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 576 Whitby Oshawa residents on February 1st, 2016 by Smart IVR. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.

Margin of error: +/- 4.07%%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

METHODOLOGY

RACE TIGHTENS IN WHITBY OSHAWA SHOWDOWN

February 3rd 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a tightening race in the upcoming Whitby Oshawa by election but with a large amount of undecided voters (+1%) it could be anyone’s race. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.07%, 19 times out of 20.

“Typically at this point we would see the undecided number trend downwards, instead it’s increased slightly within the margin of error,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “This will make Whitby-Oshawa hard to predict. 75% of undecided voters are not leaning one way or another, if they show up to the polls right now we have no indication of how they will break.”

Among all voters the PCs lead by 5%, with 33% (-4%) compared to the Liberals 27% (-2%). The NDP are at 9% (+3%) and the Greens are at 2% (+1%).

When factoring in undecided voters leaning towards a certain party the margin tightens. In the last Mainstreet poll the PCs held a 9% lead (49% to 40%) which has narrowed to just 6, with the PCs now at 44% to the Liberals 38%.

“It’s a much tighter race than we expected but there is still plenty of time to go,” continued Maggi. “Whitby Oshawa residents are keeping an open mind for now, but as we get closer to election day we should begin to get a clearer sense of which way this is headed.” About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.caFor more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

A3

If the provincial by election were held today, which candidate would you support?

ELIZABETH ROY (OLP)LORNE COE (PC)NIKI LUNDQUIST (NDP)STACEY LEADBETTER (GPC)UNDECIDEDOTHERSAMPLE

18-3437%34%8%0%21%0%66

35-4923%33%8%2%

34%0%90

50-6421%33%11%3%31%1%

226

65+25%29%13%3%

30%0%194

Female30%27%4%1%

38%0%334

Male23%41%15%3%17%1%

242

27%

33%

9% 2% 28%

0%

PC GreenNDPLiberal Undecided Other

A4

If the provincial by election were held today, which candidate would you support? (Decided and Leaning)

ELIZABETH ROY (OLP)LORNE COE (PC)NIKI LUNDQUIST (NDP)STACEY LEADBETTER (GPC)OTHER

18-3446%42%12%0%0%

35-4937%47%10%6%0%

50-6432%45%15%5%2%

65+36%40%20%4%0%

Female47%41%8%3%1%

Male30%47%17%4%1%

PC GreenNDPLiberal Other

38%

44%

13%

4% 1%

A5

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)

LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING VS SUPPORTELIZABETH ROY (OLP)LORNE COE (PC)NIKI LUNDQUIST (NDP)STACEY LEADBETTER (GPC)OTHER

Certain39%44%13%3%1%

Likely58%23%13%0%6%

Might9%83%8%0%0%

Unlikely7%71%16%7%0%

Likelihood Of Voting Vs Support

13%

6%

3%

3%0%

75%

PC GreenNDPLiberal UndecidedOther

ONLY WE CALLED

THE LIBERAL

MAJORITY.

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015

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© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

ONLY WE CALLED

THE LIBERAL

MAJORITY.