Maghull North Railway Station - Merseytravel · 2.7 Option Appraisal ... Location of proposed Maghull North railway station ... Measures for success

Maghull North Railway Station

Full Business Case

October 2016

Merseytravel

335570 ITD ITN 04 C

http://pims01/pims/llisapi.dll?func=ll&objId=1584656093&objAction=download

9 August 2016


Full Business Case


Full Business Case

October 2016

Merseytravel

Mott MacDonald, 9th Floor, Royal Liver Building, Pier Head, Liverpool L3 1JH, United Kingdom

T +44 (0)151 482 9910 F +44 (0)151 236 2985 W www.mottmac.com

Mann Island, PO Box 1976, Liverpool L69 3HN

Maghull North Railway Station Full Business Case

335570/ITD/ITN/04/C

Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description Standard

01 31 October 2016 JH MF MF Final draft

Issue and revision record

This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose.

We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties.

This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it.

335570/ITD/ITN/04/C

Chapter Title Page

Executive Summary 1

Introduction 1 Current Situation ______________________________________________________________________________ 1 The Proposed Scheme _________________________________________________________________________ 2 Scheme Benefits ______________________________________________________________________________ 2 Strategic Need ________________________________________________________________________________ 3 Economic Benefits _____________________________________________________________________________ 4 Financial Case ________________________________________________________________________________ 5 Timescale for Delivery __________________________________________________________________________ 6

1 Introduction 8

2 Strategic Case 9

2.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 9 2.2 Background to the Scheme ___________________________________________________________ 9 2.3 Existing Situation __________________________________________________________________ 13 2.4 Identified Problems and Issues _______________________________________________________ 38 2.5 Need for Change __________________________________________________________________ 48 2.6 Scheme Description ________________________________________________________________ 52 2.7 Option Appraisal ___________________________________________________________________ 62 2.8 Strategic Fit ______________________________________________________________________ 64 2.9 Political Support for the Scheme ______________________________________________________ 70 2.10 Consultation ______________________________________________________________________ 71 2.11 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 72

3 Economic Case 73

3.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 73 3.2 Demand Forecasts _________________________________________________________________ 73 3.3 Methodology ______________________________________________________________________ 81 3.4 Appraisal Results __________________________________________________________________ 86 3.5 Social and Distributional Impacts ______________________________________________________ 87 3.6 Environmental Impacts ______________________________________________________________ 90 3.7 Wider Economic Impacts ____________________________________________________________ 92 3.8 Appraisal Summary Table ___________________________________________________________ 94 3.9 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits _______________________________________________ 94 3.10 Value for Money Statement __________________________________________________________ 95 3.11 Sensitivity Tests – Alternative Growth Forecasts __________________________________________ 96 3.12 Capital Costs _____________________________________________________________________ 97 3.13 Sensitivity Tests – Fares Elasticities____________________________________________________ 98 3.14 Previous Analysis __________________________________________________________________ 98 3.15 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 99

4 Financial Case 100

Contents

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4.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 100 4.2 Assumptions _____________________________________________________________________ 100 4.3 Base Costs ______________________________________________________________________ 101 4.4 Land Ownership and Costs _________________________________________________________ 103 4.5 Quantified Risk Assessment _________________________________________________________ 105 4.6 Optimism Bias ___________________________________________________________________ 106 4.7 Scheme Costs for Appraisal _________________________________________________________ 106 4.8 Preferred Funding Arrangements _____________________________________________________ 107 4.9 Alternative Funding Arrangements ____________________________________________________ 108 4.10 Assurance of expenditure ___________________________________________________________ 108 4.11 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 108

5 Commercial Case 109

5.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 109 5.2 Output Based Specification _________________________________________________________ 109 5.3 Procurement Method ______________________________________________________________ 111 5.4 Programme Implications and Risk ____________________________________________________ 115 5.5 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 117

6 Management Case 118

6.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 118 6.2 Governance _____________________________________________________________________ 118 6.3 Assurance ______________________________________________________________________ 126 6.4 Delivery Programme _______________________________________________________________ 129 6.5 Risk Management Strategy _________________________________________________________ 130 6.6 Communication and Stakeholder Management __________________________________________ 135 6.7 Monitoring and Evaluation __________________________________________________________ 144 6.8 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 148

7 Summary and Conclusions 149

7.1 Summary _______________________________________________________________________ 149 7.2 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 149

Figures

Figure 2.1: Location of Maghull within the Liverpool City Region _______________________________________ 10 Figure 2.2: Location of proposed Maghull North railway station ________________________________________ 12 Figure 2.3: Merseytravel ticket zoning structure ____________________________________________________ 16 Figure 2.4: Rail demand in Merseyside by line _____________________________________________________ 19 Figure 2.5: Ormskirk catchment area ____________________________________________________________ 26 Figure 2.6: Aughton Park catchment area ________________________________________________________ 26 Figure 2.7: Town Green catchment area _________________________________________________________ 27 Figure 2.8: Maghull catchment area _____________________________________________________________ 27 Figure 2.9: Old Roan catchment area ____________________________________________________________ 28 Figure 2.10: Aintree catchment area _____________________________________________________________ 28 Figure 2.11: Fazakerley catchment area __________________________________________________________ 29 Figure 2.12: Kirkby catchment area ______________________________________________________________ 29

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Figure 2.13: Maghull catchment area (2014) _______________________________________________________ 31 Figure 2.14: Deprivation in Maghull and surrounding areas - Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 _______________ 35 Figure 2.15: Local Development sites around Maghull ________________________________________________ 38 Figure 2.16: Public transport options towards Liverpool in the study area _________________________________ 42 Figure 2.17: Annual hourly traffic flows M57 between J6 and Switch Island, northbound (March 2013-April 2014) __ 45 Figure 2.18: Annual hourly traffic flows: M58 between J1 and Switch Island westbound (March 2013-April 2014) __ 45 Figure 2.19: Road congestion in Sefton in 2012 _____________________________________________________ 47 Figure 2.20: Indicative scheme layout of the station __________________________________________________ 55 Figure 2.21: Indicative cross-section of station building and footbridge ___________________________________ 57 Figure 2.22: Indicative visualisation of station ______________________________________________________ 58 Figure 2.23: Indicative visualisation of station building and car park _____________________________________ 59 Figure 2.24: Proposed station at Maghull North _____________________________________________________ 63 Figure 3.1: Demand Forecasting Process ________________________________________________________ 74 Figure 3.2: Sources of benefits of the scheme _____________________________________________________ 86 Figure 3.3: Transparent Economic Assessment Model (TEAM) used for wider economic impact assessment ____ 93 Figure 4.1: Land currently owned by HCA (brown line), and that earmarked for the station (blue hatching) _____ 103 Figure 4.2: Land owned by Network Rail (shaded green) ____________________________________________ 104 Figure 6.1: Liverpool City Region – Strategic Transport Governance ___________________________________ 119 Figure 6.2: Merseytravel Scheme Delivery _______________________________________________________ 121 Figure 6.3: Governance in Rail Investment Process (GRIP) _________________________________________ 122 Figure 6.4: Investment process policy and guidelines ______________________________________________ 123 Figure 6.5: Working group structure for Maghull North ______________________________________________ 124 Figure 6.6: GRIP and business case programme __________________________________________________ 127 Figure 6.7: Information distributed to local residents _______________________________________________ 136 Figure 6.8: Monitoring causal chain diagram _____________________________________________________ 145

Tables

Table 0.1: Justification of the need for the scheme __________________________________________________ 3 Table 0.2: Economic benefits of the scheme _______________________________________________________ 5 Table 0.3: Sources of funding for the scheme ______________________________________________________ 6 Table 0.4: Key milestones for the project _________________________________________________________ 6 Table 2.1: Service pattern on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line _____________________________________ 13 Table 2.2: Journey times on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line, Monday-Saturday daytime ________________ 14 Table 2.3: Connecting rail services _____________________________________________________________ 15 Table 2.4: Typical rail fares to Liverpool Central, August 2016 ________________________________________ 17 Table 2.5: Annual demand at railway stations between Liverpool Central, Preston and Wigan Wallgate, 2014-15 18 Table 2.6: Travel to work data towards Liverpool from local area by mid-level super output area (MSOA) ______ 20 Table 2.7: Mode of access to stations on the Northern Line __________________________________________ 21 Table 2.8: Average distance travelled (km) to stations by mode _______________________________________ 21 Table 2.9: Population and socio-economic data for the local area _____________________________________ 32 Table 2.10: JSA claims by area, July 2008 – July 2014 ______________________________________________ 33 Table 2.11: JSA claims by age range and duration of claim, July 2014 __________________________________ 34 Table 2.12: NEETs – comparison between Sefton Borough and Liverpool City Region ______________________ 34 Table 2.13: Car park occupancy rates on the Northern Line ___________________________________________ 39 Table 2.14: Comparative journey times to Liverpool City Centre________________________________________ 41 Table 2.15: Synergy with other local schemes _____________________________________________________ 49 Table 2.16: Measures for success – definitions of success against scheme objectives ______________________ 61 Table 2.17: Addressing the issues – which schemes solve which problems _______________________________ 64

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Table 2.18: Strategic fit of scheme with national, regional and local policies ______________________________ 68 Table 3.1: Abstraction assessment – drive-up demand (2012 demand from model output) __________________ 75 Table 3.2: Drive-up Demand Forecast at Maghull North in 2018 ______________________________________ 76 Table 3.3: Development Assumptions and resulting impacts on Maghull North ___________________________ 78 Table 3.4: Abstraction assessment – walk-up and bus demand at Maghull ______________________________ 78 Table 3.5: Forecast demand and revenue at Maghull North in 2018 ____________________________________ 79 Table 3.6: Impacts of adding the call at Maghull North on through passengers ___________________________ 80 Table 3.7: Forecast induced demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green in 2018 __________________ 80 Table 3.8: Data sources and elasticities used in growth forecasts _____________________________________ 82 Table 3.9: Change in vehicle kilometres as a result of the scheme - Year 1 ______________________________ 84 Table 3.10: Comparison between operating costs and net revenue – revenue divided by operating costs _______ 87 Table 3.11: Social impacts of the scheme _________________________________________________________ 88 Table 3.12: Summary of the Distributional Impacts of the scheme ______________________________________ 90 Table 3.13: Environmental Appraisal Summary ____________________________________________________ 91 Table 3.14: Development land in Maghull contained in the Sefton Local Plan _____________________________ 93 Table 3.15: Wider Economic Impacts attributable to Maghull North _____________________________________ 94 Table 3.16: Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits for Maghull North _________________________________ 95 Table 3.17: Comparison of costs and benefits with the Core Scenario ___________________________________ 96 Table 3.18: Comparison of costs and benefits – capital cost variations __________________________________ 97 Table 3.19: Comparison of costs and benefits – fare elasticity variations _________________________________ 98 Table 4.1: Base capital costs for the scheme (2017 prices) _________________________________________ 102 Table 4.2: Base operating costs for the scheme (undiscounted, without risk and optimism bias) for first three

years ___________________________________________________________________________ 102 Table 4.3: Quantified Risk Assessment _________________________________________________________ 105 Table 4.4: Sources of funding for the scheme ____________________________________________________ 107 Table 5.1: Contract timescales and lengths _____________________________________________________ 115 Table 5.2: Dates for obtaining planning permission________________________________________________ 116 Table 6.1: Roles and Responsibilities in the Liverpool City Region ____________________________________ 120 Table 6.2: Working Groups – roles and responsibilities ____________________________________________ 125 Table 6.3: Key Programme Milestones – Maghull North ____________________________________________ 126 Table 6.4: Resolution of issues relating to operating a new station ____________________________________ 129 Table 6.5: Summary of key risks ______________________________________________________________ 131 Table 6.6: Recent projects delivered by Merseytravel ______________________________________________ 132 Table 6.7: List of key stakeholders ____________________________________________________________ 135 Table 6.8: Comments relating to existing transport problems and the proposed station at Maghull North ______ 138 Table 6.9: Method of engagement with stakeholders ______________________________________________ 142 Table 6.10: Core stakeholder engagement _______________________________________________________ 143 Table 6.11: Possible data sources and relevant performance indicators for monitoring and evaluation _________ 146 Table 7.1: Business Case Summary ___________________________________________________________ 149

Photos

Photo 2.1: Ormskirk railway station _____________________________________________________________ 22 Photo 2.2: Car park and cycle parking at Ormskirk _________________________________________________ 22 Photo 2.3: Town Green railway station __________________________________________________________ 23 Photo 2.4: Main car park at Town Green _________________________________________________________ 23 Photo 2.5: Maghull station Ormskirk-bound platform ________________________________________________ 24 Photo 2.6: Bus interchange at Maghull railway station ______________________________________________ 24 Photo 2.7: Bus interchange at Aintree ___________________________________________________________ 25

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Photo 2.8: Car park at Aintree _________________________________________________________________ 25 Photo 2.9: Town Green car park _______________________________________________________________ 39 Photo 2.10: Maghull station car park _____________________________________________________________ 39 Photo 2.11: Parking restrictions at Maghull ________________________________________________________ 40 Photo 2.12: Parking restrictions at Town Green ____________________________________________________ 40 Photo 2.13: A59 Northway, Maghull _____________________________________________________________ 46 Photo 2.14: A59 Aintree Village _________________________________________________________________ 46 Photo 2.15: Proposed location of Maghull North, looking north from School Lane __________________________ 54 Photo 2.16: Proposed location of station building, looking east from School Lane __________________________ 54


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Introduction

The development of a new station in the northern area of Maghull will help provide

much greater public transport access both for the north of Maghull and the wider

hinterland including adjacent areas of West Lancashire. The proposed site of the

station is located adjacent to land which has been allocated for future housing and

employment development in Sefton’s Local Plan.

The site of the station is located between Maghull and Town Green stations on the

Liverpool Central to Ormskirk branch of the Merseyrail Northern Line. The site

lies approximately one mile to the north of the existing station of Maghull. It is

expected that the station would be served by the existing Liverpool Central-

Ormskirk service, which operates at 15 minute intervals throughout the day.

Current Situation

There are a number of important transport problems in the area that need to be

addressed, namely:

Car parks at existing rail stations are frequently full and are not able to cater for

off-peak passenger demand. Roads around the stations are protected by

waiting restrictions which limits access to rail services;

There is poor accessibility by public transport from the northern areas of

Maghull; and

Road traffic congestion is often experienced in Maghull, as well as on the radial

routes towards Liverpool.

The north eastern areas of Maghull are presently earmarked for future housing

and employment development in the Sefton Local Plan, and such new

development will exacerbate the existing traffic problems unless alternative public

transport options are introduced.

Executive Summary


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The Proposed Scheme

The proposed scheme at Maghull North involves a number of features:

The introduction of a new railway station, with minimum 6*18m cars = 120m

length platforms;

Step-free access to both platforms via lifts and footbridge within station

footprint. Access will also be provided via steps;

Secure, staffed ticket office operating up to 18 hours a day, from first to last

train;

Booking hall at ground level, and glazed passenger waiting shelters on both

platforms;

Real time passenger information, CCTV and help points;

156 space car park accessed from School Lane, including blue badge/wide

spaces, as well as motorcycle parking;

Covered secure cycle parking and storage, as well as cycle routes linked to

School Lane and Park Lane;

The introduction of new footpaths to School Lane and Park Lane; and

Bus lay-bys on School Lane with a walking route to station.

Scheme Benefits

The scheme will greatly improve accessibility in the northern areas of Maghull,

providing new public transport services in the local area. Importantly, it will provide

improved connections with Liverpool and the wider City Region with proposed

housing and employment development sites to the east of Maghull. This

contributes towards improved access to employment, education and leisure

facilities in Liverpool and the larger centres of the wider City Region and

surrounding area.

The car park at the station will provide important park and ride facility for

commuting trips, especially for passengers travelling to Liverpool. Its’ location,


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with good accessed from Junction 1 on the M58, should be attractive for

passengers who rail head from outside the City Region especially from

Skelmersdale. Consequently this will have several implications:-

replace some existing park and ride trips from stations such as Ormskirk,

Aughton Park, Maghull and Town Green;

encourage car drivers to park and ride at the new station; and

potentially reduce overflow parking in streets adjacent to existing rail stations.

In turn, reduced demand at the existing station car parks will enable them be able

to better serve all markets (for example, off-peak leisure travellers who may

currently have trouble parking at stations where the car parks are full or nearly

full).

By attracting car drivers to park at the station there will be a consequential

reduction in traffic from the local area towards Liverpool. This has the potential to

produce marginal economic benefits, through reductions in congestion and

improved reliability of journey times for all road users. There are also wider

benefits in terms of improved accessibility to employment opportunities, and

enhanced public transport connectivity with the wider City Region.

Strategic Need

There are a number of key business drivers for the scheme, and these can be

divided into legal requirements, policy drivers and future land use development.

These are discussed in more detail in Table 1.1 below.

Table 0.1: Justification of the need for the scheme

Driver Reasoning How scheme contributes

Accessibility Action Plan

Aims to deliver better access to jobs and key services through an accessible and socially inclusive transport system, by removing the barriers to travel.

New station in northern Maghull provides improved accessibility to wider jobs market, and provides access to proposed development sites to east of Maghull.

Local Transport Plan and Liverpool City Region Deal with Government

Places transport at the heart of new development and aims to improve accessibility in the City Region.

New station provides improved public transport links to northern Maghull, and will serve adjacent development sites in east of Maghull.


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Driver Reasoning How scheme contributes

Congestion

Approaches to existing station at Maghull, and the radial routes into Liverpool suffer from peak time traffic congestion.

New station provides alternate park and ride site towards Liverpool, reducing traffic on approaches to existing station at Maghull and on main radial routes into Liverpool.

Car Parking Problems Existing station car parks are operating at capacity and don’t effectively cater for the off peak market.

New station provides alternate park and ride site towards Liverpool. Abstraction for nearby stations will reduce demand at their car parks, freeing spaces for off peak demand.

Source: Mott MacDonald

Economic Benefits

The monetised economic assessment of the scheme has been undertaken in

compliance with guidance contained in the Government’s web-based Transport

Analysis Guidance (TAG). This shows that the scheme produces a Present Value

of Benefits (PVB) of £14.377m (2010 prices, discounted to 2010) compared to a

Present Value of Costs (PVC) of £7.617m with a benefit to cost ratio of 1.89

which represents medium value for money. Additional qualitative impacts are

set out in the Appraisal Summary Table that is provided as an Appendix to this

report.

This scenario assumes the LEP population and employment forecasts developed

for the City Region Long Term Rail Strategy. The LEP growth forecasts have

been produced in response to an historic under-reporting of population on

Merseyside by TEMPRO. These forecasts have fed into the recently published

long term rail strategy for the Liverpool City Region.

Network Rail have provided Merseytravel with a scheme cost estimate report to

GRIP 3 level in June 2016 which is used in this economic appraisal and formed

part of Merseytravel’s total cost advised to us of £13.0m (2017 prices). Optimism

Bias of 40% has also been applied to certain cost items.

The economic benefits of these three options are presented in


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Table 0.2 below.

Table 0.2: Economic benefits of the scheme

Core Scenario

Present Value of Benefits £14.377 million

Present Value of Costs £7.617 million

Net Present Value £6.760 million

Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89

Value for Money Medium

Source: Mott MacDonald, all values are in 2010 market prices discounted to 2010 prices

An assessment of net revenue against operating costs for the core scenario

shows that over the 60 year appraisal period operating cost is more than covered

by net revenue. Overall revenue exceeds operating costs by around one third

and generates a revenue surplus of (2010 prices, discounted to

2010) over the appraisal period.

A Wider Economic Impact Assessment has been completed using Mott

MacDonald’s Transparent Economic Assessment Model (TEAM), which is a

versatile tool designed to calculate the economic impact of proposed infrastructure

interventions and policy measures. Using this method, the overall net economic

benefits to Sefton, on an annual basis, which are directly attributable to the

opening of Maghull North railway station, include facilitating new employment

opportunities with 259 jobs and £13.7 million of GVA.

Future forecasts of rail passengers using the station suggest that a total of

363,000 single journeys per annum will be generated by the station at Maghull

North in 2018.


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Financial Case

The major sources of funding for the scheme will be Department for Transport’s

Devolved Majors Local Growth Fund, Combined Authority LGF funding,

Merseytravel funding and Section 106 developer contributions from the developer

of the Ashworth South site adjacent to the proposed station.

Table 0.3 below provides a breakdown of the funding profile for the scheme.

Table 0.3: Sources of funding for the scheme

Expenditure % Total 2014/15 2015/16 To 21 Oct 2016

Remainder 16/17

Local Growth Fund 84% £6.200,000 £0 £0 £2,300,000 £3,900,000

Merseytravel 9% £690,000 £100,000 £490,000 £100,000 £0 Section 106 from

HCA 7% £480,000 £0 £0 £480,000 £0

Total £7,370,000 £100,000 £490,000 £2,880,000 £3,900,000 Additional

allocation required Combined

Authority LGF 90% £4,500,000 Merseytravel 10% £500,000

Total £12,370,000

Station cost £13,000,000

Sunk costs £633,000

Source: Merseytravel , undiscounted

Finance would be sourced from Major Scheme funding and any Section 106

contribution from the developer of the adjacent Ashworth Hospital site. The

Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) are now owners of the Ashworth Hospital

site, and they will make a developer contribution of £480,000 towards the cost of

the station.

Timescale for Delivery

The key milestones for the project are set out in Table 0.4 below.


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Table 0.4: Key milestones for the project

Milestone Project Completion Date

Option Appraisal Report Jun-14

Outline Business Case Dec-14

Completion of land procurement Oct-16

Completion of GRIP3 option selection Jun-16

Station agreement and update of concessions agreement Sep-17

Rail Information Project - consultation Nov-15 to Aug-16

Planning Application Sep-16 to Jan-17

Completion of GRIP 4 Outline design Feb-17

Completion of GRIP 5 detailed design Jun-17 to Dec-17

Completion of GRIP 6 construction, test and commission Aug-17 to Apr-18

Completion of GRIP 7 scheme hand back May-18

Completion of GRIP 8 project closeout From May-18

Station Opens May-18

Source: Merseytravel

This version of the Full Business Case incorporates various updates to the

previous baseline assumptions which have been requested by Merseytravel.

These include a revised opening date, new costs advised and application of the

LEP-based growth scenario. These have been interpreted, adapted and applied

where applicable and feasible.


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This document sets out the business case for the development of a new station in the northern area of

Maghull which will deliver improved public transport access both for the north of Maghull and the wider

hinterland including adjacent areas of West Lancashire. The document is structured to reflect the key

requirements of the business case, in line with WebTAG requirements as follows:

Section 2 outlines the Strategic Case for the scheme, demonstrating the case for change, with a clear

rationale for making the investment. This section highlights the strategic fit, how the investment in the

scheme will further the aims and objectives of the Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership

(LEP).

Section 3 outlines the Economic Case for the scheme which includes assessment of options to identify all

their impacts, and the resulting value for money. The impacts considered are just not limited to those

directly impacting on the measured economy. Consequently economic, environmental, social and

distributional impacts of a proposal are all examined, using qualitative, quantitative and monetised

information.

Section 4 outlines the Financial Case for the scheme, focusing on the affordability of the proposal, its’

funding arrangements and technical accounting issues relating to the scheme.

Section 5 outliunes the Commercial Case for the scheme, setting out the background on the commercial

viability of a proposal and the procurement strategy that will be used to engage the market. It also sets out

evidence on risk allocation and transfer, contract timescales and implementation timescale as well as

details of the capability and skills of the team delivering the project and any personnel implications arising

from the scheme.

Section 6 sets out the Management Case for the scheme, focusing on deliverability issues, in relation to

project planning, governance structure, risk management, communications and stakeholder management,

benefits realisation and assurance (e.g. a Gateway Review). Details of the proposed monitoring and

evaluation framework adopted for the scheme are also included here.

Section 7 summarises the key benefits of the scheme.

1 Introduction


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 9

2.1 Introduction

The Strategic Case determines whether or not an investment is needed, either now or in the future. It

demonstrates the case for change – that is, a clear rationale for making the investment; and strategic fit –

how an investment will further the aims and objectives of the Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise

Partnership (LEP).

More specifically the Strategic Case should:

Specify the business need for a project;

Set the context and identify a series of investment aims;

Assess the investment aims against what the LEP (and Government) wants to achieve as a whole;

Determine the case for change and strategic fit should an iterative process as the business case

develops, and always supported by robust evidence, such as identifying key risks and constraints; and

Consult main stakeholder groups.

The Strategic Case is discussed in detail under the following headings:

Background to the Scheme;

Existing Situation;

Identified Problems and Issues;

Need for Change;

Scheme Description;

Option Appraisal;

Strategic Fit;

Political Support;

Consultation; and

Conclusions.

2.2 Background to the Scheme

2.2.1 Location and Context

Maghull is located in the south eastern part of Sefton Borough close to the City Region boundary with West

Lancashire. It primarily acts as a dormitory suburb for Liverpool and is well served by the local rail and

highway network.

The location of the area in the context of the Liverpool City Region is shown in Figure 2.1.

2 Strategic Case


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Figure 2.1: Location of Maghull within the Liverpool City Region


Southport Chorley

SkelmersdaleWigan

St Helens

Widnes

Runcorn

Warrington

Huyton

Crosby

Maghull

West Kirby

Birkenhead

New Brighton

LIVERPOOL

Hunt’s Cross

Bootle

Sandhills

Kirkdale

Kirkby

Ormskirk

Burscough

Formby

LEGEND

Liverpool City Region Railway lines serving Maghull

Maghull North Connecting lines

Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 11

The A59 Northway dual carriageway runs through Maghull, forms the Liverpool-Preston road and provides

the main north-south link in the area. The residential areas of Maghull are located on both sides of the

A59, with the small village of Lydiate located to the northwest.

The A59 also provides a link south to Switch Island, which is a complex signalised junction forming the

terminal junctions of both the M57 and the M58. The M57 effectively forms an eastern bypass for

Liverpool with links to the M62, and the M58 provides a link northeast to Skelmersdale and Wigan to

connect to the M6. Junction 1 of the M58 has northeast facing on/off slip roads providing access to the

northern areas of Maghull via School Lane. There are also links from Switch Island to the west towards

Seaforth and to Crosby along the A5758 Broom’s Cross Road.

The Liverpool Central-Ormskirk railway runs through the area, with stations at Old Roan, close to Switch

Island, and at Maghull, located in the south eastern area of the town. A further three stations north of

Maghull serve Town Green, Aughton Park and Ormskirk. To the southeast of Maghull the Liverpool

Central-Kirkby railway serves the town of Kirkby, whilst the Kirkby-Manchester line runs from Kirkby

towards Wigan, serving stations at Rainford and Upholland.

The current station in Maghull is accessed from Station Road and Melling Lane, which connects the A59 at

Maghull with Melling and Kirkby to the south and east. It is located 13.8 miles northeast of Liverpool

Central and is the final station within Merseyside on the Ormskirk branch. Stations between Maghull and

Ormskirk, although within Lancashire, benefit from being within the valid area of use for Merseytravel’s

Saveaway multi-modal (only valid on rail within West Lancashire) and Railpass tickets. Merseyrail’s

Daysaver off-peak tickets are also valid on the Ormskirk-Maghull section.

The local area is shown in Figure 2.2 below.


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Figure 2.2: Location of proposed Maghull North railway station


2.2.2 Scheme History

Proposals for a new railway station in the northern area of Maghull have existed for a number of years, and

date back to at least the mid-1980s. Consultants were commissioned by Merseytravel to prepare an

outline business case1 for the scheme in 2006, and this looked at the most appropriate design, predicted

passenger demand, revenue as well as operating and construction costs.

A further ‘fast-track development’ study2 into the station was undertaken by Network Rail in 2008, which

effectively conforms to GRIP stages 1 to 3.

1 Maghull North New Station Study: Final Report, Atkins, September 2006

2 Options Report for a new station at Maghull North, Network Rail, July 2008

Ormskirk-Prestonrailway line

MAGHULL

ORMSKIRK

SKELMERSDALE

KIRKBY

Rainford

Kirkby

RAINFORD

Maghull

Old Roan

Aintree AintreeRacecourse

Town Green

Aughton Park

NETHERTON

A51

47 t

o So

uthp

ort

Switch Island

Contains Ordnance Survey data© Crown copyright and database right (2014)

LEGENDExisting railway stationsProposed railway stationsRailway line serving Maghull NorthOther existing railway linesProposed rail link to Skelmersdale (indicative)Thornton-Switch Island Link Road

Skelmersdale(Proposed)

Headbolt Lane(Proposed)

SITE OF MAGHULL

NORTH

LYDIATE

WADDICAR

M58 Junction 1Proposed south-facing

slip roads


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 13

Four different options for the station were considered, with varying locations between the Park Lane and

School Lane overbridges. The preferred option identified in the report included:

Two opposite platforms (rather than staggered) immediately north of School Lane overbridge;

A footbridge at southern end of platforms;

Station building located on up (Liverpool-bound) side; and

Car park accessed from roundabout with adjacent development site.

This "fast-track development" study considered the location of platforms at the proposed station site and

identified the optimum to be platforms opposite each other north of School Lane. These would be serviced

by steps and lifts from a footbridge at the Liverpool end of the platforms, again immediately north of School

Lane bridge.

Subsequent to this, a GRIP4 study was commenced. However, following funding cuts, a decision to cease

work on the study was taken in September 2010.

2.3 Existing Situation

2.3.1 Rail Services

The railway running through Maghull forms part of the Merseyrail Northern Line, with trains running

between Liverpool Central and Ormskirk calling at all stations. The service pattern is summarised in Table

2.1 below.

Table 2.1: Service pattern on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line

Headway

Northbound (ex-Liverpool Central)

Southbound (ex-Ormskirk)

First Train Last Train First Train Last Train

Mon-Sat (before 07:00) 20 minutes 06:10 - 05:50 -

Mon-Sat (07:00-19:00) 15 minutes - - - -

Mon-Sat (after 19:00) 30 minutes - 23:40 - 23:40

Sunday 30 minutes 08:10 23:40 08:20 23:40

Source: National Railway Timetable, May 2014

Journey times on the route are shown in Table 2.2 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 14

Table 2.2: Journey times on the Liverpool Central-Ormskirk line, Monday-Saturday daytime

Northbound journey times from Liverpool Central (minutes)

Southbound journey times from Ormskirk (minutes)

Moorfields 4 Aughton Park 3

Sandhills 8 Town Green 5

Kirkdale 11 Maghull 10

Walton (Merseyside) 13 Old Roan 13

Orrell Park 15 Aintree 15

Aintree 17 Orrell Park 17

Old Roan 19 Walton (Merseyside) 19

Maghull 22 Kirkdale 22

Town Green 26 Sandhills 24

Aughton Park 29 Moorfields 28

Ormskirk 34 Liverpool Central 30


Note that journey times on Sundays are one minute faster from Liverpool to Maghull and Ormskirk in the

northbound direction. The journey time between Maghull and Town Green, the section where Maghull

North will be situated, is currently four minutes northbound and five minutes southbound. It is anticipated

that all Liverpool Central-Ormskirk services would call at the proposed station at Maghull North.

The Northern Line is electrified at 750V DC third rail. It is operated using Class 507 and 508 3-car Electric

Multiple Units (EMUs), which have a seating capacity of 1863. Some services are strengthened to 6-car

trains to accommodate peak time demand giving a seating capacity of 372 passengers.

The Ormskirk services provide connections to the wider Merseyrail network at Kirkdale, Sandhills,

Moorfields and Liverpool Central. Connecting Northern Rail services are available at Ormskirk station

towards Preston. Interchange opportunities are summarised in Table 2.3 below.

3 Marsden, C (2011), Traction Recognition Second Edition, Ian Allan Publishing


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 15

Table 2.3: Connecting rail services

Interchange station Connections

Ormskirk Approximately every 75 minutes to Preston via Burscough, Rufford and Croston

(Northern are committed to providing an hourly service from Ormskirk to Preston from December 2017.)

Kirkdale Every 15 minutes to Kirkby via Fazakerley

Sandhills Every 15 minutes to Southport via Bootle, Crosby and Formby

Moorfields

Approximately every 5 minutes to Liverpool Lime Street for connections to mainline services to a variety of destinations including St Helens, Wigan, Preston, Warrington, Runcorn, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Nottingham, Norwich, Birmingham and London.

Liverpool Central

Every 15 minutes to Hunt’s Cross via Liverpool South Parkway

Every 15 minutes to Chester via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Hooton

Every 30 minutes to Ellesmere Port via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Hooton

Every 15 minutes to New Brighton via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Wallasey

Every 15 minutes to West Kirby via Birkenhead Hamilton Square and Bidston for the Borderlands Line to Wresham


At Ormskirk the connecting services use the same platform separated by buffer stops blocking any through

connection on the railway lines. Connecting passengers must alight from the train and walk down the

platform to board the connecting services. Ormskirk-Preston services operate at a slightly less than hourly

frequency Monday-Saturday and there is no Sunday service.

Merseytravel issue a range of tickets which are based on a zonal system as shown in Figure 2.3.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 16

Figure 2.3: Merseytravel ticket zoning structure


The main ticket types are:

Railpass – valid on rail only;

Trio – valid on bus ferry and rail; and

Saveaway – valid on bus, ferry and rail in off-peak periods (after 09:30).

In addition Merseyrail offer an off-peak day ticket, which from Maghull, Kirkby and Ormskirk to Liverpool

are cheaper than the standard Rail Settlement Plan (RSP) station-to-station return tickets. Typical fares

are shown in Table 2.4 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 17

Table 2.4: Typical rail fares to Liverpool Central, August 2016

RSP Anytime Day Return

Saveaway (multi-mode)

Merseyrail Daysaver (rail only)

Railpass (weekly)

Railpass equivalent

return price4

Ormskirk £6.45 £5.20 £5.00 £24.00 £4.76

Aughton Park £5.75 £5.20 £5.00 £24.00 £4.76

Town Green £5.65 £5.20 £5.00 £24.00 £4.76

Maghull £4.10 £3.90 £3.70 £19.00 £3.76

Old Roan £3.75 £3.90 £3.70 £19.00 £3.76

Aintree £3.65 £3.90 £3.70 £15.10 £3.02

Kirkby £3.75 £3.90 £3.70 £18.80 £3.76

Source: Merseytravel and Merseyrail

The price differentials are an important point to consider when investigating station choice for those who

rail head to stations in the area, especially those from the Skelmersdale area who have a choice of several

stations.

2.3.2 Service Enhancements

A number of capacity constraints on the network were highlighted in the Northern Route Utilisation

Strategy (RUS) in 2011, which incorporated elements of the Merseyside RUS from 2009. The first of these

was Liverpool Central, where Northern Line platform overcrowding, particular on Saturdays, was

highlighted as a key issue. Station upgrades at Liverpool Central in 2012 have already helped to increase

passenger capacity.

Other constraints relate to the existing infrastructure on the Northern Line. This includes flat junctions at

Sandhills (where the Southport branch diverges) and Walton (where the Kirkby branch diverges), which

limits the number of trains which can operate on the three branches of the Northern Line.

An hourly service between Ormskirk and Preston is being developed alongside an improved interchange

from Merseyrail to Northern Rail at Ormskirk. This will regularise (and slightly enhance) the Ormskirk-

Preston service frequency and has the potential to generate increased demand between Liverpool and

Ormskirk as an alternative route for trips between Liverpool, northern Lancashire, Cumbria and Scotland.

This forms the most direct route between Liverpool and Preston, although faster direct services are

available from Liverpool Lime Street to Preston via St Helens and Wigan.

The Merseyrail rolling stock fleet is due to be replaced and upgraded within the next decade. The

replacement is identified for delivery in the rail industry’s Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for

the Rail Industry (February 2014). As part of our appraisal process we have assumed that new rolling

stock will be delivered by December 2020.

4 Assumes five return journeys per week


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 18

Strategies are being developed to release car parking pressures at individual stations on the Northern

Line. A number of stations were included in the National Station Improvement Programme, whereby

congestion and footfall pressure will be targeted up to 2014. This has included completed projects at

Liverpool Central and Ormskirk, whilst Maghull has benefitted from a new waiting room and fully accessible

toilets. No further work is planned on the Ormkisirk branch but a car park is to be built at Hall Road on the

Southport line. Merseytravel has recently allocated a contribution to the rebuilding of Aindsale, also on the

Southport branch.

2.3.3 Passenger Demand

Current demand on the Northern Line between Liverpool and Ormskirk and Liverpool and Kirkby has been

analysed together with a review of demand between Ormskirk and Preston and Kirkby and Wigan Wallgate

for completeness. This is summarised in Table 2.5 below.

Table 2.5: Annual demand at railway stations between Liverpool Central, Preston and Wigan Wallgate, 2014-15

Station Demand Station Demand

Liverpool Central 15,272,800 Burscough Junction 39,200

Moorfields 6,832,600 Rufford 17,500

Sandhills 1,324,100 Croston 45,200

Kirkdale 866,200 Preston 4,557,500

Walton 272,800 Rice Lane 314,400

Orrell Park 1,040,400 Fazakerley 1,088,200

Aintree 1,084,300 Kirkby 2,408,800

Old Roan 896,600 Rainford 49,600

Maghull 1,821,500 Upholland 28,000

Town Green 346,600 Orrell 97,700

Aughton Park 183,300 Pemberton 63,800

Ormskirk 2,096,300 Wigan Wallgate 1,637,500

Source: Office of Rail Regulation, Annual Station Footfall Figures 2014-15

This shows that in terms of demand the busiest stations outside of Central Liverpool are Kirkby and

Ormskirk, with Maghull being the third busiest. Stations between Ormskirk and Preston and Kirkby and

Wigan show relatively low demand, and this is potentially a result of the lack of direct services from these

stations towards Liverpool and the hourly or less than hourly train services on these lines.

Demand trends on the Merseyside rail network have also been analysed, using data supplied by

Merseytravel. Demand trends by line (i.e. Northern, Wirral and City) are shown in Figure 2.4 below. It

should be noted that both Liverpool Central and Liverpool James Street stations were closed for

refurbishment during 2012, and this is reflected in reduced demand on both the Northern and Wirral lines

compared to previous years.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 19

Figure 2.4: Rail demand in Merseyside by line

Source: Merseyside Annual Statistics Monitor 2013/14

The data suggests a period of sustained growth in demand on rail in Merseyside, from 34 million journeys

in 2004/5 to 38 million journeys in 2013/14 representing growth of around 12%. Closure of Liverpool

Central for refurbishment in 2012 is reflected in the demand dip for 2012/13 on the Northern Line. It is

noted that in the period between 2008/9 and 2011/12 demand on the Northern Line had begun to ‘level off’

with slight reductions in demand recorded.

Travel to work data is available from the 2011 Census, and this has been analysed for journeys towards

the Liverpool District. This is summarised in Table 2.6 for the mid-level super output areas (MSOAs)

covering the approximate catchment area, although it should be noted that the data represents only the

main mode of transport for a journey.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

De

man

d (

mill

ion

s)

Rail Demand by Line

Northern

Wirral

City


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 20

Table 2.6: Travel to work data towards Liverpool from local area by mid-level super output area (MSOA)

MSOA To Liverpool District

Journeys Percentage by rail

Sefton 017 (Lydiate) 831 22%

Sefton 018 (N Maghull) 802 26%

Sefton 019 (SE Maghull) 658 32%

Sefton 020 (SW Maghull) 895 21%

West Lancashire 003 (NW of Maghull) 258 18%

West Lancashire 008 (E of Maghull) 177 18%

West Lancashire 009 (Skelmersdale) 125 14%




Catchment Average 4,038 23%

Source: 2011 Census and NOMIS

This shows that a relatively high proportion of journeys into the Liverpool district from Maghull are

undertaken by rail. Census reports a travel-to-work mode share by rail of 20% from Sefton to the Liverpool

District, suggesting that rail mode share in the Maghull area for journeys to work is slightly above the

district average. For all journey purposes, the Merseyside Countywide Travel Survey (2013) reports a rail

mode share of 5% for Sefton District, and 3% for Merseyside as a whole.

The travel-to-work data is a reflection of the competitive journey time by rail compared to road as well as

the comparative mode cost. It is noted that rail mode share is highest in the south eastern area of Maghull,

close to the railway station, with areas to the north and to the west of the A59 Northway having slightly

lower mode shares.

The Skelmersdale area to the north and east, which also forms part of the catchment for Maghull station,

has correspondingly lower numbers of journeys to work in the Liverpool district. Rail also has a lower

mode share for these journeys compared to the area around Maghull. This is due to the lack of a direct

rail service from the area and a need to railhead to stations on the Liverpool-Ormskirk or Liverpool-Kirkby

railways.

2.3.4 Station Access

Station access information for Maghull has been analysed as part of surveys undertaken on the Northern

Line for Merseytravel in both 2007 and 2008. Passengers on the Liverpool-bound platform were surveyed,

and this has highlighted both the mode of travel to the station and catchment area.

Modal split information for journeys to the station has been extracted from the survey data, which is

summarised in Table 2.7 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 21

Table 2.7: Mode of access to stations on the Northern Line

Mode of Access Ormskirk Aughton

Park Town

Green Maghull Old Roan Aintree Kirkby

Bus 13% 0% 0% 15% 8% 7% 24%

Car, as driver 25% 19% 46% 30% 15% 31% 12%

Car, as passenger 17% 15% 19% 21% 13% 10% 13%

Taxi 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 16%

Walk 42% 63% 34% 30% 62% 47% 33%

Cycle 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2%

Source: Rail Access Analysis Report: Northern Line, Merseytravel October 2008

This shows a diverse picture across the range of stations. Aughton Park and Old Roan have high

proportions of passengers accessing the station by foot. These essentially serve as local stations for walk-

up demand. Kirkby, Maghull and Ormskirk all have a relatively high proportion of access by bus, which

reflects the presence of good feeder bus services into the stations. Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and

Aintree also have high proportions of access by car (either as a driver or passenger) which further

suggests that these stations are being used for rail heading or as park and ride stations. This is further

supported by evidence of average distances travelled to the station which is summarised in Table 2.8

below.

Table 2.8: Average distance travelled (km) to stations by mode

Mode of Access Ormskirk Aughton

Park Town

Green Maghull Old Roan Aintree Kirkby

Bus 7.5km - - 1.8km 1.9km 2.4km 2.1km

Car, as driver to station car park

6.7km - 3.8km 4.0km 1.8km 5.2km 3.0km

Car, as passenger 9.4km 0.8km 3.0km 4.6km 1.0km 5.1km 1.7km

Source: Rail Access Analysis Report: Northern Line, Merseytravel October 2008

These figures reveal that that Ormskirk has the largest catchment area, acting as a rail head and providing

both bus and rail interchange for a wide catchment area. Car drivers also travel relatively long distances to

access both Maghull and Aintree stations. Both of these stations are signed as park and ride sites from

the A59.

2.3.5 Station Facilities

Ormskirk

Ormskirk railway station is located 13 miles northeast of Liverpool Central and approximately 4 miles north

of the site of Maghull North. It is the terminus of Northern Line services from Liverpool and Northern Rail

services from Preston and provides step-free interchange between the services along the platform. It has

a staffed ticket office from first to last train and the bus interchange is located a short walk away.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 22

Photo 2.1: Ormskirk railway station Photo 2.2: Car park and cycle parking at Ormskirk

Source: Mott MacDonald Source: Mott MacDonald

The car park at Ormskirk is located adjacent to the station and provides a total of 84 car park spaces

(including a total of 10 spaces for blue badge holders). A Lancashire County Council car park nearby

provides an additional 40 spaces. The car park is easily accessed from all main radial routes into the

town. In addition a 24-space covered cycle rack is provided adjacent to the station building. Ormskirk is

one of 12 stations in Merseyside and surrounding areas which operate the Bike and Go bike hire scheme.

Aughton Park

Aughton Park railway station is located approximately 11½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central,

approximately 2½ miles north of the site of Maghull North. It serves a predominantly residential area south

of Ormskirk town centre.

The station is staffed from first to last train. It has limited access for the mobility impaired, with stepped

access provided to the platforms. No car parking spaces are available at the station, although four cycle

parking spaces are provided.

Town Green

Town Green railway station is located 10½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central, approximately a mile and

a half north of the site of the proposed Maghull North station.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 23

Photo 2.3: Town Green railway station Photo 2.4: Main car park at Town Green


The station has a staffed ticket office from first to last train and has a footbridge with steps connecting both

platforms. Step-free access is available from the ticket office to the Ormskirk-bound platform but involves

a five minute walk via the adjacent road bridge. A small covered waiting area is provided with seats, and

Aughton Police Station is located within the station building. The station has two car parks offering a

combined total of 52 spaces (two of which are for blue badge holders); the main car park is located

adjacent to the Liverpool-bound platform, with a further small parking area adjacent to the Ormskirk-bound

platform.

Maghull

The station in Maghull is located 8 miles northeast of Liverpool Central and just over a mile to the south of

the proposed site of Maghull North. Demand figures above show that it is the busiest station between

Liverpool and Ormskirk. It is staffed from first to last train and offers step-free access to both platforms via

the adjacent level crossing, in addition to a footbridge. There are a range of facilities, including an M-to-Go

kiosk (which includes ticket sales), toilets, covered waiting facilities on both platforms, a bus interchange

adjacent to the Ormskirk platform and a large car park.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 24

Photo 2.5: Maghull station Ormskirk-bound platform Photo 2.6: Bus interchange at Maghull railway station


The car park at the station has 278 spaces (18 of which are for blue badge holders) and is signed as a

park and ride facility from the A59 Northway. The car park is located alongside the Ormskirk platform and

includes blue badge parking spaces and 40 spaces in a covered cycle shelter close to the ticket office. In

addition, Maghull is one of 12 stations in Merseyside and the surrounding area which operate Bike and Go.

This is a bike hire scheme charged at £3.80 per 24 hours, plus an annual membership charge of £10.

Old Roan

Old Roan railway station is located 6½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central and approximately 2½ miles

south of the proposed site of Maghull North. The ticket office is staffed from first to last train and the

station is located adjacent to a bus interchange.

There are limited numbers of parking spaces at the station; three spaces are provided for blue badge

holders and six cycle racks are provided. The station is fully accessible with platforms accessed either via

stairs or by lift.

Aintree

Aintree station is located 5½ miles northeast of Liverpool Central and approximately 3½ miles south of the

proposed site of Maghull North. The ticket office is staffed from first to last train and there are a range of

facilities including toilets and covered seating areas.

The car park is easily accessed from the A59 Ormskirk Road and has a capacity of 104 spaces (eight for

blue badge holders). It is located adjacent to the Liverpool-bound platform; bus stops are provided

adjacent to the station building on the car park access road. Twelve covered cycle racks are also provided


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 25

on the station platforms. Step-free access is provided from the car park to both platforms via ramps and a

footbridge.

Photo 2.7: Bus interchange at Aintree Photo 2.8: Car park at Aintree


2.3.6 Station Catchment

Station catchment information for journeys to the station has been extracted from the survey data. The car

and bus catchment areas for various stations are provided in Figure 2.5 to Figure 2.12 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 26

Figure 2.5: Ormskirk catchment area Figure 2.6: Aughton Park catchment area

Source: Merseytravel, 2008 Source: Merseytravel, 2008


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 27

Figure 2.7: Town Green catchment area Figure 2.8: Maghull catchment area



335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 28

Figure 2.9: Old Roan catchment area Figure 2.10: Aintree catchment area



335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 29

Figure 2.11: Fazakerley catchment area Figure 2.12: Kirkby catchment area


This information reveals that:

Ormskirk has a wide catchment area, including the immediate local area, the more rural areas between

Ormskirk, Southport and Preston, as well as bus and park and ride journeys from Skelmersdale;

Aughton Park draws car passenger demand from an area close to the station, with car driver demand

originating from the wider hinterland;

Town Green draws demand from a relatively wide area, including Lydiate, Ormskirk and Skelmersdale;

Maghull draws demand by bus from the immediate local area as well as longer distance car journeys

which are cross-boundary in nature from Skelmersdale into Merseyside;

Old Roan attracts demand mainly from the local areas of Netherton and Aintree, with some car drivers

from the Maghull and Skelmersdale areas;


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 30

Aintree attracts demand mainly from its immediate local area, but includes some rail heading from the

Maghull and Skelmersdale areas; and

Fazakerley and Kirkby predominantly attract trips from the immediate local areas.

Together these plans indicate that the catchment areas of these stations overlap to some degree. The

Skelmersdale area in particular looks to a number of railway stations as its rail head; Ormskirk fulfils this

role for journeys by bus, with journeys by car divided between a number of stations, including Town Green,

Maghull and Aintree.

Additional surveys were undertaken in 2014 at Maghull, and the resulting catchment area is shown in

Figure 2.13 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 31

Figure 2.13: Maghull catchment area (2014)

Source: Merseytravel, 2014

This information shows similar patterns to the surveys undertaken in 2008, with the majority of journeys to

Maghull from coming from the immediate local area including Maghull and Lydiate. There are some

journeys undertaken from West Lancashire, including Skelmersdale and from the north western parts of

Kirkby.


LEGEND

Maghull station

Trips to station

Kirkby

Skelmersdale

Ormskirk

Rainford

Netherton

Lydiate

Maghull


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 32

2.3.7 Local Area

The existing station at Maghull serves the areas around Maghull and Lydiate, and also adjacent areas of

West Lancashire, including Skelmersdale. Population and employment statistics for the local area are

shown in Table 2.9 below.

Table 2.9: Population and socio-economic data for the local area

Ward Area Population (2011) % with no access to

private vehicle (2011)

% claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA),

July 2014

Molyneux (SE Maghull and Melling) 12,760 17.1% 1.7%

Park (NW Maghull and Lydiate) 11,900 15.7% 1.1%

Sudell (Central Maghull area) 12,680 17.7% 1.0%

Sefton Borough 273,790 28.5% 2.9%

Liverpool City Region 1,506,940 34.4% 3.5%

Aughton & Downholland 5,470 10.9% 0.8%

Bickerstaffe 1,990 8.4% 0.9%

Skelmersdale North 4,060 32.6% 2.8%

Skelmersdale South 6,460 28.7% 2.8%

England 53,012,460 25.8% 2.3%

Source: Census 2011 and NOMIS

This shows that:

The population of the catchment area is in the order of 55,500 people, although it should be noted that

this area forms the catchment area of a number of stations;

The immediate local area has a much lower proportion of households with no access to a private

vehicle compared to both the City Region and English averages.

The immediate local area has a lower Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claimant rate than the English

average, and both the Sefton and Liverpool City Region average; and

Skelmersdale has a higher JSA claimant rate than the English average and a higher proportion of

households without access to a private vehicle.

Further information from NOMIS has been accessed to investigate the JSA claimant rate over time, by age

group and by length of claim. This data is summarised in Table 2.10 and Table 2.11 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 33

Table 2.10: JSA claims by area, July 2008 – July 2014

Area 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Molyneux

(SE Maghull and Melling) 2.1% 3.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7%

Park

(NW Maghull and Lydiate) 1.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1%

Sudell

(Central Maghull area) 1.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.0%

Sefton Borough 3.1% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.5% 2.9%

Liverpool City Region 3.8% 5.9% 5.1% 5.5% 5.6% 4.9% 3.5%

Aughton & Downholland 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8%

Bickerstaffe 1.0% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9%

Skelmersdale North 3.8% 7.6% 5.9% 5.7% 6.4% 5.6% 2.8%

Skelmersdale South 3.1% 6.5% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.1% 2.8%

England 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 2.3%

Source: NOMIS

This shows that over the last seven years the claimant rate in the Maghull area has been consistently

below both the national and City Region average. In the wider catchment area claimant rates vary from

below the national average in the rural hinterland (Aughton and Bickerstaffe) to above the national average

in Skelmersdale. Claimant rates have varied, peaking in 2009. Rates in 2014 are now lower than the

corresponding rate in 2008, which is in contrast to the national average.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 34

Table 2.11: JSA claims by age range and duration of claim, July 2014

Area Population aged 16-64

(2010)

JSA by age range JSA by duration of claim

18-24 25-49 50+ <6

months 6-12

months >12

months

Molyneux

(SE Maghull and Melling) 8,400 25.0% 53.6% 21.4% 55.6% 18.5% 25.9%

Park

(NW Maghull and Lydiate) 8,800 31.8% 45.5% 22.7% 55.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Sudell

(Central Maghull area) 7,800 37.5% 50.0% 12.5% 66.7% 20.0% 13.3%

Sefton Borough 166,200 25.4% 55.3% 19.3% 46.9% 18.7% 34.5%

Liverpool City Region 974,600 26.6% 55.9% 17.5% 49.3% 18.5% 32.1%

Aughton & Downholland 3,300 33.3% 50.0% 16.7% 80.0% 0.0% 20.0%

Bickerstaffe 1,300 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100% 0.0% 0.0%

Skelmersdale North 2,400 27.3% 54.5% 18.2% 30.8% 30.8% 38.5%

Skelmersdale South 4,100 22.7% 63.6% 13.6% 60.0% 15.0% 25.0%

England 39,747,200 23.5% 57.0% 19.5% 52.2% 17.2% 30.5%

Source: NOMIS

Within the immediate catchment area the proportion of JSA claimants aged less than 24 years is higher

than the City Region average; the adjacent areas of West Lancashire also typically have proportions higher

than the national average. In terms of duration of claims there are a high proportion of short term

claimants, suggesting short-term youth unemployment is an issue.

When looking at those aged less than 24 years of age who are not in education, employment or training

(so called NEETs), data is recorded at Local Authority level. This is summarised in Table 2.12 below.

Table 2.12: NEETs – comparison between Sefton Borough and Liverpool City Region

% NEET (2012) % NEET (2013) Annual Change

Sefton Borough 6.7% 5.7% -1.0%

Lancashire County 5.5% 5.3% -0.2%

Liverpool City Region 8.1% 7.0% -1.1%

England 5.7% 5.3% -0.4%

Source: Department for Education

This shows that the proportion of NEETs in Sefton is higher than the national average but lower than the

wider City Region. Proportions have fallen over the past year, but at a slightly lower rate than the City

Region as a whole.

This data as a whole suggests that although the immediate area around Maghull has lower unemployment

rates than the City Region as a whole there are some problems with youth unemployment. The


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 35

surrounding areas such as Skelmersdale, which would likely form part of the catchment area for Maghull

North, have higher levels of unemployment and higher levels of short-term youth unemployment. By

providing improved public transport options from these areas access to the employment market in

Liverpool and the wider City Region will be improved.

The Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) from 2010 have been analysed for the local area. These provide

a ranking of local areas based on an index which considers a range of socio-economic factors, including

income, health, education and crime. The most and least deprived areas are shown in Figure 2.14 below.

Figure 2.14: Deprivation in Maghull and surrounding areas - Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010

Source: IMD and Mott MacDonald

Sefton District is ranked as the 83rd most deprived borough out of 354 nationally, according to the Index of

Multiple Deprivation. However, the more deprived areas are concentrated to the southwest of the Borough,


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 36

including Bootle. The least deprived areas are concentrated on the coast around Formby, and also around

Maghull and Lydiate.

The adjacent areas of West Lancashire also show a distinct split. The Skelmersdale area shows high

levels of deprivation, whereas Ormskirk and the less populated rural hinterlands are less deprived.

2.3.8 Future Land Use Developments

The Sefton Local Plan sets out how development in the district will be managed from 2015 to 2030. This

was approved for publication by the Council on 22 January 2015 with the publication period lasting until 27

March 2015. Comments on the plan can be submitted during this time before the plan is submitted to the

Secretary of State for examination by the Planning Inspectorate. Following the examination and any

recommendations by the Inspector the Council can then adopt the Local Plan.

Within the Local Plan there are three development sites which are identified immediately to the east of the

proposed location of Maghull North railway station. These include the following:

MN2.29 – former Prison Site, Park Lane, Maghull 370 housing units

MN2.46 – land east of Maghull 1,400 housing units

MN2.46 – land east of Maghull, close to M58 J1 20ha of mixed employment use

Together the two housing sites comprise 1,770 housing units, which accounts for nearly 25% of the total

housing development in the Sefton Local Plan.

The latter two sites are subject to the policies contained within MN3, which identifies land at Ashworth

south and the need to phase development in a way in which to develop a high quality ‘urban extension’.

This includes:

A minimum of 1,400 housing units, including a mix of market and affordable housing;

20ha of serviced employment land to comprise a Business Park for land use classes B1 (light industry /

office), B2 (general industry) and B8 (storage and distribution);

Local retail centre of appropriate scale to serve the new development;

New public open space, including a neighbourhood park, play area and provision for outdoor sport; and

Development of a masterplan for the site.

Some restrictions are placed on development as part of this policy. There is a specific requirement for

25% of the employment development to be completed and now that the construction of the 500th dwelling

has taken place a bus service to the area and new south facing slip-roads are also obligated.

The developments are planned to be phased to link to new facilities and infrastructure. Planning

conditions, Section 106 and other legal agreements are planned to deliver a range of transport

improvements through appropriate developer contributions. This includes the provision of Maghull North


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 37

railway station and park and ride facility and a contribution to southbound on and northbound off-slip roads

at M58 junction 1.

As of 8 January 2015 a total of 370 houses have been granted Conditional Approval on the site between

Park Lane and School Lane (Planning Application DC/2014/00980). Persimmon Homes now has full

planning permission. Land is to transfer over the summer. First house building is due in September 2016

with occupation from January 2017.

Other nearby development sites are also identified in the Local Plan. These include:

MN2.27 – Land at Turnbridge Road, Maghull 40 housing units

MN2.28 – Land north of Kenyon’s Lane, Lydiate 295 housing units

MN2.30 – Land east of Waddicar Lane, Melling 178 housing units

MN2.31 – Wadacre Farm, Chapel Lane, Melling 135 housing units

MN2.32 – Land south of Spencers Lane, Melling 18 housing units

MN2.33 – Land at Wango Lane, Aintree 25 housing units

MN2.38 – Land at former Bootle High School, Netherton 63 housing units

These sites are further away from the proposed railway station at Maghull North but still fall within the

potential catchment area. In addition, there are several employment sites to the west of Old Roan and

Aintree railway stations. This includes site MN2.47 the Dunnings Bridge Road Corridor, Netherton which

forms a Strategic Employment Location for a mix of B1, B2 and B8 land use classes, and MN2.51 the

Switch Car Site, Netherton which is allocated 4.7ha of mixed B1, B2 and B8 land use classes.

In adjacent authorities, Skelmersdale is identified as a key location for both employment and housing

developments in West Lancashire’s Local Plan. The plan identifies several sites within the town with a

combined capacity for 1,420 housing units in the period up to 2027, and states that Skelmersdale will

provide 52ha of land for new employment development, representing nearly 70% of total employment

developments in West Lancashire. This is largely based on making more intensive use of existing

employment sites. In Knowsley, sustainable urban extensions have been identified at Bank Lane, Kirkby

(for housing) and east of Knowsley Industrial and Business Parks (for employment).

Local development sites are identified in Figure 2.15 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 38

Figure 2.15: Local Development sites around Maghull

Source: Sefton, Knowsley and West Lancashire Local Plans

2.4 Identified Problems and Issues

2.4.1 Car Parking

One of the main problems on the Northern Line is parking at stations. Although there are a total of 558 car

parking spaces at stations between Ormskirk and Aintree (with an additional 174 spaces at Kirkby) these

have an occupancy rate of around 90%, with many having occupancy rates in excess of 95%, and there is

little opportunity to further expand the car parks.

Data from Merseytravel has been supplied from May 2011 on car park occupancy rates, and this is

summarised in Table 2.13 below – note that the number of parking spaces at some stations has

subsequently changed.

MAGHULL

ORMSKIRK

SKELMERSDALE

KIRKBY

Rainford

Kirkby

RAINFORD

Maghull

Old Roan

Aintree

AINTREE

Town Green

Aughton Park

MN2.29


LEGENDExisting railway stationsRailway line serving Maghull NorthOther existing railway linesProposed housing sites (indicative)Proposed employment sites (indicative)Proposed mixed-use sites (indicative)Thornton-Switch Island Link Road

SITE OF MAGHULL

NORTH

LYDIATE

WADDICAR

MN2.46

MN2.51

MN2.47

MN2.38

MN2.27

MN2.28

MN2.33

MN2.32

MN2.31

MN2.30

Bank Lane, Kirkby


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 39

Table 2.13: Car park occupancy rates on the Northern Line

Station Car Park Number of Spaces Maximum Use Occupancy Rate

Ormskirk 155 135 87%

Town Green 42 41 98%

Maghull 275 261 95%

Aintree 104 101 97%

Kirkby 82 79 96%

TOTALS 658 617 94%

Source: Merseytravel, May 2011

Note: Number of spaces at some stations has changed since survey in 2011. In some cases number of spaces is different to that

identified in section 2.3.5 describing current station facilities.

Although the number of spaces at some car parks has changed, it can be seen that occupancy at all

stations except Ormskirk is greater than 95%. Many spaces are occupied by 09:30, suggesting high levels

of use by commuters. This leaves little space for leisure users who wish to park and ride at off peak

periods and there is also anecdotal evidence of on-street parking around stations, suggesting that demand

for car parking exceeds the number of parking spaces at stations. Site visits suggest that car parking at

stations is at capacity, with the only available spaces being those reserved for blue-badge holders.

Photo 2.9: Town Green car park Photo 2.10: Maghull station car park


In order to prevent overspill parking in the streets surrounding the stations waiting restrictions are provided.

At Station Road, Maghull, which is the main access road to the station from the west, there are generally

double yellow lines with no waiting at any time restrictions on both sides of the road. Residential streets

typically have a waiting restriction between 10am and 11am, in order to stop overflow all-day parking from

the station whilst limiting inconvenience to local residents. Car parking at the adjacent shopping precinct in

Maghull has prominent signs stating that parking is for customers only, which is limited to two hours.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 40

The roads around Town Green station are protected by waiting restrictions between 8am and 6pm

Monday-Saturday. This includes the main access road and also surrounding residential streets.

Observations on a site visit suggested that although the restrictions were observed on the access road,

parking did occur in the residential streets.

Photo 2.11: Parking restrictions at Maghull Photo 2.12: Parking restrictions at Town Green


There is a need to increase the number of car parking spaces for rail users in the local area to cater for

existing demand, whilst also providing adequate future provision to attract people to park and ride and

switch to using the train rather than drive to their ultimate destination. This is particularly relevant for the

off-peak market, which is poorly served by the current park and ride offering; car parks fill up in the

morning peak period leaving few spaces for the use of off-peak travellers. Increasing the number of car

parking spaces at stations on the Northern Line will extend the park and ride option to these users in the

off-peak period, and encourage mode shift onto rail for these journeys.

2.4.2 Public Transport Provision

Public transport provision in the area varies widely; those areas with a railway station benefit from relatively

short journey times into Liverpool City Centre with a 15 minute headway. Those areas dependent on bus

services typically have longer journey times into Liverpool City Centre. Comparative journey times by

various modes are shown in Table 2.14 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 41

Table 2.14: Comparative journey times to Liverpool City Centre

Bus Journey Time Rail Journey Time

Car Journey Time (uncongested)

Car Journey Time (congested)

Ormskirk 68-69 minutes (2 per hour)

30 minutes (4 per hour)

23 minutes 30 minutes

Skelmersdale 103 minutes (2 per hour)

71 minutes (1 per day) No direct service 28 minutes 36 minutes

Town Green 57 minutes (1 per hour)



Lydiate 48-54 minutes (3 per hour)

No direct service 18 minutes 25 minutes

Maghull

(Deyes Lane)


No direct service 17 minutes 24 minutes

Maghull

(Station Road)

Early morning / evening services only



Kirkby

36-47 minutes

(8 per hour)

50-61 minutes

(14 per hour)



Aintree 28-35 minutes (8 per hour)



Source: Merseytravel, National Rail Enquiries and AA Route Planner. Note congested journey times include an ‘AM Peak journey

time factor’ of 1.35 for the Switch Island to Liverpool City Centre section quoted in Travel in Merseyside 2012 (Merseyside

LTP)

This shows that in uncongested conditions car journey times are typically faster than both rail and bus

journey times. Bus journey times are relatively long, as a result of indirect journeys (for example, the

regular Skelmersdale services run via Ormskirk) and serving residential areas rather than main roads (for

example one Skelmersdale service runs via Aughton and Lydiate, and one runs via the northern areas of

Maghull). For reference a map showing direct bus services from the local area to Liverpool is shown in

Figure 2.16 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 42

Figure 2.16: Public transport options towards Liverpool in the study area

Source: Mott MacDonald and Merseytravel – note not all bus services are shown

The southern area of Maghull benefits from having easy access to the existing railway station. Public

transport provision from the northern areas of Maghull is comparatively poor, especially in terms of access

to the railway network. This is particularly true for the proposed development sites to the east of the

railway line. Towards Liverpool this area is served only by early morning and evening bus services; there

are alternative feeder bus services which connect into the railway station at Maghull. There are relatively

poor public transport links from the north of Maghull and Lydiate, with bus services having much longer

journey times when compared with journey times by car.

As from the 24th July 2016 s from 24/7/16 the 133 bus service from Kirkby via Maghull and Crosby to

Waterloo has been diverted from Melling Village to pass over M58 J1. This passes the station site along

School Lane and is hourly every day of the week. This change results from the Kirkby bus network review.

MAGHULL

ORMSKIRK

SKELMERSDALE

KIRKBY

Rainford

RAINFORD

Aintree

Town Green

Aughton Park

NETHERTON


LEGENDExisting railway stationsDirect railway line to LiverpoolOther existing railway linesRegular direct bus service to LiverpoolInfrequent (peak / evening) bus service to LiverpoolBus termini

SITE OF MAGHULL

NORTH

LYDIATE

311

14X Kirkby Admin

19 Bramcote Walk

345 Waddicar

130 Old Roan

14/14A/20 Tower Hill

210/241/250Ashworth Hospital

310/311/345 Skelmersdale

X3 Civic Centre


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 43

Skelmersdale also has poor public transport options towards Liverpool. Regular bus services offer a

journey time of an hour and forty minutes, running via Ormskirk (compared to a journey time by car of less

than half an hour for the more direct 16 mile journey). This leads to rail heading from the Skelmersdale

area, either by bus to Ormskirk or by car to a range of stations, such as Maghull and Aintree. It should be

noted that early morning and late evening journey options between Liverpool and Skelmersdale are very

poor, with only two buses from Skelmersdale timed to arrive in Liverpool before 09:00, whilst the last bus

from Liverpool to Skelmersdale departs from Liverpool at 17:39, arriving in Skelmersdale at 19:21. The

last bus from Skelmersdale to Liverpool departs at 18:22 arriving at 20:04.

Those people without access to a vehicle in the Skelmersdale area are effectively isolated with poor public

transport journey times, and no service offering a service after the early evening. By comparison, Ainsdale

on the Southport branch of the Northern Line (also 16 miles from Liverpool), has four trains per hour into

Liverpool with a journey time of 36 minutes, as well as five buses per hour with a journey time of between

56 and 58 minutes.

It is noted that the realisation of the land use developments in the area and the building of the station could

prompt a change in the local bus service offering. This would include making commercial operators aware

of potential new destinations and potentially a review of tendered bus services in the local area.

The opening of the new station at Maghull North will provide new public transport opportunities for the area

to the north and east of Maghull. It will also provide an alternative park and ride site to cater for demand

from the Skelmersdale area. Rail heading is likely to become easier from that area, with direct vehicle

access from the M58 at Junction 1 leading along School Lane direct to the car park at Maghull North.

2.4.3 Accessibility to Services

Sefton Access Plan5 forms the access strategy for Sefton Council, and sets out baseline accessibility

levels within the district. This includes access to key centres and services. In summary, the document

identifies the following:

Health – public transport access to hospital services at Aintree Hospital takes more than 30 minutes for

the majority of Sefton residents. Access to specialist hospitals is extremely difficult for the majority of

residents and access to Ormskirk Hospital is poor;

Employment – there is relatively poor access to West Lancashire and related cross-boundary

employment opportunities;

Education – post-16 colleges (not including schools with sixth forms) generally can be accessed by

public transport within 30 minutes. For a majority of Maghull residents access time is greater than 30

minutes; and

5 http://www.letstravelwise.org/files/768028275_LTP%202006-2011%20Appendix%2008.4.pdf?_sm_au_=i7Vvs3jFqtDRNRNN


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 44

Major centres – for most of Maghull public transport journey times are in excess of 30 minutes to a

major centre.

There are also some specific cross-boundary travel issues, with Sefton residents accessing services in

adjacent Local Authority areas, such as West Lancashire (Ormskirk) and Liverpool.

In response to these issues the plan identifies that new development should be located in areas which are

well served by public transport. The new station at Maghull North will provide excellent public transport

links for the development sites in eastern Maghull, whilst also improving access by public transport to the

existing areas of northern Maghull. It not only provides good public transport connections within Sefton but

also provides good cross-boundary travel options into both Liverpool and West Lancashire.

2.4.4 Network Congestion

Network congestion on the main roads through Maghull, Switch Island and Aintree Village is a known

issue, and several schemes have been and are in the process of being implemented to provide minor

increases in capacity and to relieve congestion. This includes:

Thornton-Switch Island Link Road, to alleviate traffic congestion at Switch Island and through

Netherton (the A5758 Broom’s Cross Road is now open);

Provision of Variable Message Signs on the M57 and M58 on the approaches to Switch Island to

provide journey time information and encourage informed route choices; and

Minor junction improvements at Aintree Retail Park6.

Hourly traffic flows on the M57 and M58 on the approaches to Switch Island are shown in Figure 2.17 and

Figure 2.18 below.

6 http://modgov.sefton.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/s34542/FD%201012%20-%20A59%20Retail%20Park%20Access%20-%20f.pdf Accessed 03 October 2014

http://modgov.sefton.gov.uk/moderngov/documents/s34542/FD%201012%20-%20A59%20Retail%20Park%20Access%20-%20f.pdf


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 45

Figure 2.17: Annual hourly traffic flows M57 between J6 and Switch Island, northbound (March 2013-April 2014)

Source: TRADS / HATRIS database, Highways Agency, 2014

Figure 2.18: Annual hourly traffic flows: M58 between J1 and Switch Island westbound (March 2013-April 2014)

Source: TRADS / HATRIS database, Highways Agency 2014

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335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 46

Both roads show high average hourly flows in the morning and evening, which correspond to expected

peak commuting times. On the M57 the typical morning peak flows is around 2,100 vehicles per hour,

rising to over 3,000 vehicles per hour in the evening peak. Traffic flows on the M58 are lower, with around

1,400 vehicles per hour in the morning peak and 1,200 vehicles per hour in the evening peak. All of this

traffic (plus traffic on the A59 and A5036) joins at the signalised junction at Switch Island, which can lead to

congestion and delays. Any improvements to the park and ride facilities in the Maghull area would impact

on this traffic, with the potential for drivers to switch to using park and ride facilities at the railway station.

There are a number of signalised junctions on the A59 between Maghull and Aintree Village, with a

number of retail parks between the Switch Island junction and Aintree Racecourse. These attractions,

together with the number of junctions, contribute to slow moving and queuing traffic on the approaches to

these junctions.

Photo 2.13: A59 Northway, Maghull Photo 2.14: A59 Aintree Village


Evidence of road congestion is provided in the monitoring documents supporting the Local Transport Plan

for Merseyside. This presents various maps showing a journey time factor between the AM peak journey

time and a typical ‘free-flow’ journey time. The resulting congestion map of Sefton is shown in Figure 2.19

below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 47

Figure 2.19: Road congestion in Sefton in 2012

Source: Travel in Merseyside, 2012 (LTP Merseyside)

The darker red colours shown in Figure 2.19 indicate those routes with higher factors – i.e. those routes

where peak time congestion and delay are typical. The green and light blue colours indicate routes where

there is less variation in journey time with peak time speeds similar to free flow speeds.

The routes extending through Switch Island, in particular the southbound A59 through Maghull and the

south/west bound M58 are both identified as congestion points. Similarly the southbound A59 through

Walton towards Liverpool City Centre, and the A5036 Dunnings Bridge Road towards Seaforth and Bootle

are also identified as congestion points.

All of these routes are used by road traffic from the Maghull area travelling towards Liverpool City Centre.

Increasing car parking capacity on the Northern Line is likely to encourage mode shift onto the railway and

reduce traffic and congestion on the identified radial routes into Liverpool.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 48

2.5 Need for Change

The Liverpool City Region’s infrastructure will undergo significant investment and development over the

coming years as highlighted in the City Region’s Strategic Economic Plan. In 2013, £1 billion of capital

investment began on two key projects – the Mersey Gateway and Liverpool 2. These major projects

alongside other projects that form the SuperPort initiative will drive growth in the City Region.

2.5.1 Vision for Liverpool City Region

The vision of the Liverpool City Region is “to regain our status as a premier European City Region by 2025.

We will secure an internationally competitive economy and cultural offer; an outstanding quality of life; and

vibrant communities contributing to and sharing in sustainable wealth creation”. In support of this the

strategic priorities are:

The Premier Destination Centre;

The Well-Connected City Region;

The Creative and Competitive City Region;

The Talented and Able City Region; and

The City Region of Sustainable Neighbourhoods and Communities.

The scheme at Maghull North will help to connect the wider City Region by improving access to the railway

network, and improving access by public transport into the local area.

2.5.2 Vision for Sefton Borough

The Vision for Sefton included in the Local Plan is:

“Sefton has successfully planned for and delivered sustainable development and growth across

the borough, meeting the needs of its communities. At the same time Sefton has retained and

enhanced what makes it special – varied and distinctive communities living in an outstanding

natural environment in a coastal location.”

The Local Plan makes mention of improving access to facilities, employment and services through the

provision of new infrastructure. This includes the new railway station at Maghull North.

2.5.3 Synergy with Other Schemes

There are a number of schemes within the local area which have varying degrees of interaction with the

scheme at Maghull North. These schemes vary from non-committed interventions on the railway network

to interventions on the local road network that have the potential to impact on mode choice in the area.

These schemes are summarised in Table 2.15 below.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 49

Table 2.15: Synergy with other local schemes

Scheme What is being delivered Scheme benefits Inter-relation with Maghull North

Switch Island Driver Information Signs

Variable message signs on M57 and M58 detailing congestion and journey times on local roads

Journey time information will allow drivers to make informed route choices

Potential to reduce congestion and journey times on local roads. Limited impacts on mode split / journey times to Liverpool.

M58 Junction 1 New southwest facing slip roads at junction east of Maghull.

Improved accessibility and journey times for journeys from eastern Maghull towards south. Provides access from south onto School Lane which leads directly to new development sites and to Maghull North station.

Improved accessibility to local area from south, potentially increasing station catchment area, but also impacts on car journey times from local area

Thornton-Switch Island Link New link road from A565 at Thornton to Switch Island (the A5758 Broom’s Cross Road is now open.)

Improved east-west accessibility and journey times.

Limited impacts on mode split from Maghull area. Limited impacts on journeys towards Liverpool.

Burscough Curves Long Term Rail Strategy scheme for reinstatement of short sections of railway line to allow through travel between Southport and Ormskirk, and Southport and Preston

Improved accessibility. New rail markets from Ormskirk and Southport.

Potential for increased demand at Maghull North with new journey opportunities to Southport via Ormskirk.

Burscough Bridge Interchange

Long Term Rail Strategy scheme for two-level station at Burscough Bridge for interchange between Ormskirk-Preston and Southport-Wigan-Manchester services.

Improved accessibility. New rail markets from Ormskirk and Southport.

Potential for increased demand at Maghull North with improved interchange onto services to Manchester, Wigan and Southport via Ormskirk and Burscough.

Ormskirk-Preston improvements

Long Term Rail Strategy scheme for re-signalling, line speed improvements and electrification of route. Direct services from Liverpool-Preston via Ormskirk would link through Liverpool City Centre to South Liverpool.

Allows direct operations from South Liverpool through the City Centre to Preston via Ormskirk. Improved accessibility to north, and new direct rail markets opened.

Potential for increased demand at Maghull North, with new direct journey opportunities to Preston and the north as well as direct journeys to South Liverpool.

Liverpool City Centre Rail Capacity

Long Term Rail Strategy scheme to maximise use of Moorfields and increase capacity at Liverpool Central.

Allows rail demand to/from Liverpool City Centre to continue to grow.

Increasing capacity in Central Liverpool will not constrain demand growth at outlying stations, such as Maghull North.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 50

Scheme What is being delivered Scheme benefits Inter-relation with Maghull North

North Mersey Branch Long Term Rail Strategy scheme to upgrade line between Aintree and Bootle to passenger standard.

Allows Liverpool-Ormskirk services to be split between North Mersey Branch and existing route via Kirkdale. Frees-up capacity on existing line for services to Skelmersdale via Kirkby.

Potential for increased demand at Maghull North, with new journey opportunities to Bootle. New rail link to southwest of Sefton District improving accessibility from Maghull.

Skelmersdale Rail Link and Electrification of Kirkby-Wigan Line

New railway station in Skelmersdale Town Centre with direct service to Liverpool Central, with electrification of line from Kirkby to Wigan

Improved accessibility and journey times by public transport towards Liverpool.

Overlap in catchment areas between Skelmersdale and Maghull North. Direct services from Liverpool to stations east of Kirkby likely to abstract some demand. Impacts on station choice – will offer improved journey choice between Skelmersdale and Liverpool.

Headbolt Lane New railway station to east of Kirkby with direct service to Liverpool Central.

Improved accessibility and journey times by public transport towards Liverpool.

Likely to be some overlap in catchment areas between Headbolt Lane and Maghull North, especially from Skelmersdale area for those using park and ride. Impacts on station choice – will offer improved journey choice between Skelmersdale and Liverpool.


None of the road schemes are likely to have major impacts on the proposed schemes at Maghull North.

M58 Junction 1 and A5758 Broom’s Cross Road will both provide improved accessibility in the local area

by car. The enhanced motorway junction will provide enhanced accessibility from the development sites

east of Maghull, with potential impacts on journey times towards Liverpool from the area. This will have

two effects, namely increasing the catchment area of Maghull North station, but also increasing the

attractiveness of car journeys into Liverpool. The A5758 Broom’s Cross Road improves east-west

accessibility and is likely to have limited impacts on journeys from the local area towards Liverpool.

The Driver Information Signs at Switch Island are being delivered by the Highway Agency as part of the

national Pinch Point Programme. This will deliver small scale changes to the strategic road network to

help stimulate growth in the local economy and well as to relieve congestion and improve journey time

reliability. The scheme itself will provide variable message signs which will provide local journey time

information. This will allow drivers to make informed route choices. It is likely to have minor journey time

impacts and will have limited impacts on the Maghull North proposals.


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 51

The proposed new station at Headbolt Lane, Kirkby and the rail link to Skelmersdale Town Centre both

cater to the catchment area of Maghull North. Therefore, both are likely to abstract demand from the

proposed station. It is noted that the catchment areas of all three stations are likely to overlap. However,

these schemes together with Maghull North will offer improved journey choices from West Lancashire to

Liverpool.

The enhancements to the Ormskirk-Preston line, improvements at Burscough and the upgrade of the North

Mersey Branch are all likely to influence demand at Maghull North. All three of these schemes will provide

new or improved journey opportunities by rail, with a consequent increase in demand at Maghull North. Of

these, the direct services to Preston and South Liverpool and the new routing via Bootle are likely to have

the largest impacts.

Capacity enhancements in Central Liverpool are also likely to impact on Maghull North. Changes will allow

demand into Liverpool to continue to grow, including from Maghull North.

None of the rail schemes identified above are committed at this stage, and therefore they have not been

considered in the demand forecasts produced for Maghull North.

2.5.4 Internal and External Business Drivers

The key business drivers for the scheme can be divided into legal requirements, policy drivers and future

land use developments. These are discussed in more detail below.

Accessibility Action Plan

The DfT published its Accessibility Action Plan (Transport for Everyone: an action plan to improve

accessibility for all) in December 2012. The aims of the plan fit with those developed as part of the

Department’s 2012-15 Business Plan and include to “deliver better access to jobs and key services

through an accessible and socially inclusive transport system, by removing the barriers to travel and

ensuring that social impacts are addressed in policy development and service delivery”.

The new station at Maghull North fits with these aims, with the station effectively integrated with new

housing and employment developments to the east of Maghull. This improves public transport

accessibility, giving access to the wider City Region employment market for residents and giving residents

of the wider area easy access to and from the employment developments in the area.

City Region

There are a number of policies and plans which are relevant to the Liverpool City Region which set out the

need for transport improvements to support economic growth. These include the Merseyside Local

Transport Plan, as well as the Liverpool City Region Deal with Government and the Long Term Rail

Strategy. The City Region aims to place transport at the heart of economic development; targeted

transport improvements are likely to improve accessibility to new development sites and help link the City


335570/ITD/ITN/04/C 52

Region. Maghull North is specifically mentioned as a potential new station in the Liverpool City Region

Long Term Rail Strategy, published in summer 2014.

By providing a new railway station in the north of Maghull easy access is provided to the new housing and

employment sites to the east of Maghull. This will effectively integrate the site with the rest of the City

Region, providing easy access to the employment site and linking the housing development with the wider

employment market in Liverpool and the City Region.

Car Parking and Congestion

Park and Ride facilities at the site will provide marginal benefits of reduced congestion on the A59 radial

route into Liverpool, contributing to improved journey time reliability. It will abstract demand from nearby

stations where station car parks are full, with 90% occupancy rates not uncommon. The location of the

station will allow direct access from Junction 1 of the M58 motorway, and is likely to reduce traffic through

Maghull and the Switch Island junction. It is anticipated that demand from the Skelmersdale area in

particular would benefit from the new station, with reduced journey times to access the rail network.

Reducing highway network congestion fits with the Sefton Core Strategy transport network priorities, which

includes reducing high traffic levels, especially at Switch Island.

Sefton Local Plan and Maghull East Developments

The developments on land east of Maghull are identified within the Sefton Core Strategy, with the aim to

provide a high quality urban extension. In January 2015 conditional planning approval was granted for 370

houses on the Ashworth Hospital South site between Park Lane and School Lane (Planning Application

DC/2014/00980), whilst land east of Maghull (south of School Lane) has been identified within the Local

Plan for housing and employment. These two land allocations would provide a total of 1,770 housing units

(nearly 25% of the total in Sefton District). In additional 20ha of serviced employment land is allocated to

the site south of School Lane.

The railway station at Maghull North is an integral part of the development sites to the east of Maghull. It

will improve public transport accessible to the north and east of Maghull and provide bus/rail interchange

for the local Maghull bus services. The full development potential of the site is specifically dependent on

the opening of the station.

2.6 Scheme Description

2.6.1 Scheme Objectives

The scheme aims are as follows;

Improve accessibility by public transport, especially from the northern areas of Maghull;

Enhance access to both Liverpool City Centre and other employment hubs across Sefton and

Merseyside in order to target deprivation;


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Reduce congestion on major roads into Liverpool, and also on local roads in Maghull relating to traffic

to and from the park and ride site at Maghull Station;

Encourage the use of public transport, especially from new developments in northern Maghull; and

Alleviate car parking pressure at Maghull and other stations, in order to avoid bottlenecks and

overcapacity of park and ride facilities.

In order to realise and measure the full potential of the new station the following objectives have been set:

Increase rail patronage on the Northern Line, measured by increased station footfall at stations

between Aintree and Ormskirk including Maghull North;

Increase car parking capacity at stations between Aintree and Ormskirk, reducing parking pressure at

existing car parks at Aintree, Maghull, Town Green and Ormskirk;

Reduce road congestion and longer-distance commuting by car into Liverpool; and

Maximise the use of public transport, especially rail, to access the new development sites in Maghull.

2.6.2 Proposed Scheme

The proposed scheme at Maghull North involves:

New railway station, with minimum 6*18m cars = 120m length platforms;

Step-free access to both platforms via lifts and footbridge within station footprint;

Access also provide via steps;

Secure, staffed ticket office operating up to 18 hours a day;

Booking hall , and glazed passenger waiting shelters on both platforms;

Real time passenger information, CCTV and help point;

156 space car park accessed from School Lane;

Covered secure cycle parking and storage;

Footpaths to School Lane and Park Lane;

Cycle routes linked to School Lane and Park Lane; and

Bus lay-bys on School Lane with walking route to station.


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Photo 2.15: Proposed location of Maghull North, looking

north from School Lane

Photo 2.16: Proposed location of station building, looking

east from School Lane

Source: Merseytravel Source: Merseytravel

The proposed layout of the proposed station scheme, as well as visualisations are shown in Figures 2.20

to Figure 2.23 below.

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Figure 2.20: Indicative scheme layout of the station

Source: Network Rail and Buckingham Group Contracting

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Figure 2.21: Indicative cross-section of station building and footbridge


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Figure 2.22: Indicative visualisation of station


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Figure 2.23: Indicative visualisation of station building and car park



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2.6.3 Benefits and Impacts

The scheme will improve accessibility in the northern areas of Maghull, providing a new public transport

option in the local area. It will provide improved linkages from Liverpool and the wider City Region into the

housing and employment development sites east of Maghull. This contributes towards improved access to

employment, education and leisure facilities in Liverpool and the larger centres of the wider City Region

and surrounding area.

The car park at the station is likely to provide an alternative, key park and ride facility for commuting trips

especially towards Liverpool. Its location, easily accessed from M58 J1 will be relatively attractive for

passengers who rail head from outside the City Region, especially from Skelmersdale. Consequently this

will have several implications:-

replace some existing park and ride trips from stations such as Ormskirk, Aughton Park, Maghull and

Town Green;

encourage car drivers to park and ride at the new station; and

potentially reduce overflow parking in streets adjacent to existing rail stations.

This will reduce demand at the existing station car parks, which will then be able to adequately serve all

markets (for example, off-peak leisure travellers who may currently have trouble parking at stations where

the car parks are full or nearly full). It also has the potential to reduce overflow parking in streets adjacent

to existing stations.

By attracting car drivers to park at the station there will be a consequential reduction in traffic from the local

area towards Liverpool. This will produce marginal economic benefits, through reductions in congestion

and improved reliability of car journey times.

2.6.4 Measures for Success

In line with the Treasury’s Magenta Book7 a monitoring and evaluation programme for the scheme has

been developed; this is discussed in further detail in Section 6.7 where a causal chain diagram is provided.

The measures of success of the project are summarised in Table 2.16 below.

7 The Magenta Book: Guidance for evaluation, HM Treasury, April 2011


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Table 2.16: Measures for success – definitions of success against scheme objectives

Objective Measure for success

General – deliver scheme to time, budget and specification

Fully accessible station with 156 space car park opened by May 2018 within current estimated budget.

Increase rail patronage on the Northern Line between Aintree and Ormskirk

Increased demand (measured by ORR station footfall) at stations between Aintree and Ormskirk, including Maghull North

Increase car parking capacity on the Northern Line between Aintree and Ormskirk

Increased car parking spaces between Aintree and Ormskirk, Meeting parking demands at the station with additional park and ride capacity.

Reduce road congestion and longer-distance commuting by car into Liverpool

Increase rail’s mode share of trips from the Maghull area into Liverpool

Maximise the use of public transport, especially rail, to access new development sites in Maghull

Mode share of trips to and from the development sites to the east of Maghull


These measures primarily make use of existing data sources, such as the National Rail Passenger Survey

(NRPS) and train count data. Some bespoke surveys may be required to supplement these data sources,

including car park occupancy surveys and traffic count and speed data on local roads. These are

discussed in more detail in section 6.7.

2.6.5 Impact of Not Changing

The existing car parking situation on the Northern Line between Ormskirk and Aintree suggests that there

is little opportunity for further growth in the park and ride market. Station car parks are currently operating

at or near capacity and this is likely to effectively cap any growth in rail heading to these stations. This is

likely to further impact on mode choice and road congestion in the local area. There are also problems

with overspill car parking in residential streets surrounding the existing stations, with some roads now

subject to yellow line ‘no waiting’ restrictions.

Rail journey times are comparable with car journey times and offer an attractive alternative mode. In

comparison, bus journey times are much longer and less attractive. With car parks at stations at or near

capacity a large proportion of potential rail passengers may simply choose to drive to their destination

instead of the station. This will adversely impact on congestion on the local road network, and lead to

reduced reliability in terms of journey times.

The new development sites adjacent to the proposed station are relatively poorly connected by public

transport at the current time. Should the station not be progressed then it is likely that car trips would

represent a much higher proportion of journeys to and from the site – this is explicitly stated in the

Transport Assessment in support of the housing development off School Lane (Planning Application

DC/2014/00980) where trip rates for the development have been presented as two scenarios, both with

and without the new station.


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2.7 Option Appraisal

Four options were identified in the earlier Option Appraisal Report completed in May 2014, and these are

presented below.

2.7.1 Do Nothing

The Do Nothing scenario would provide no improvement options or solutions. It is most likely that the

station car parks at Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree will continue to operate at or above

capacity and that any rise in rail demand will merely exacerbate this. In reality it is likely that lack of

sufficient car parking at these stations will effectively cap rail demand, which will discourage people from

using the railway leading them to choose other modes of transport. This is likely to lead to growing use of

the car, leading to increasing levels of congestion on the A59, M57 and M58 around Maghull and through

Aintree Village. This is neither a socially or environmentally viable outcome.

2.7.2 Option 1

This option would double-deck the existing car park at Maghull in order to extend the car park by around

160 spaces. This would provide an approximate 60% increase in capacity of the car park, which takes into

account the need to provide access ramps onto the second level. This would result in a car park at

Maghull with 435 car parking spaces.

This would provide additional car parking capacity at Maghull, further alleviating any overspill parking in

adjacent residential areas. It would allow for future growth in demand for park and ride journeys, both

locally from Maghull as well as further afield in Skelmersdale and West Lancashire.

It is noted that this option may not be acceptable to local residents, as the car park would overlook

properties adjacent to the west side of Maghull railway station. It would also not be in keeping with the

predominantly residential nature of the local area.

2.7.3 Option 2

This option would provide a new station at Maghull North, accessed from School Lane. It would not

include a car park, and as such it is envisaged that this would take the form of the preferred option

identified by Network Rail in their 2008 study but with no car park attached.

The design would include full step-free access to both platforms via lifts and a footbridge, with steps to the

footbridge also provided. It would include two platforms with a minimum length of 120m each as well as a

staffed ticket office, toilet, waiting room and glazed passenger waiting shelters on both platforms. Realtime

passenger information would be provided. Footpaths and cycle routes linked to School Lane and Park

Lane would be provided along with secure cycle parking.


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This option would improve access from Lydiate and northern Maghull, but as a local walk-up station rather

than acting as a park and ride site. There will be some benefit to the existing station at Maghull through

reduced park and ride from the northern areas of Maghull and the subsequent reduction in traffic on local

roads. Based on the level of parking at Maghull station it is not considered to be feasible to provide a new

station in this location without car parking facilities.

2.7.4 Option 3

This option would provide a station at Maghull North identical to that in Option 2, with the addition of a 200

space car park. It is envisaged that this would take the form of the preferred option identified by Network

Rail in their 2008 study, as shown in Figure 2.24 below.

Figure 2.24: Proposed station at Maghull North

Source: Network Rail, 2008

This option would improve access from Lydiate and northern Maghull; it would aim to encourage park and

ride trips from the Maghull, Lydiate and Skelmersdale areas to switch to using the new station at Maghull


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North. Access to the proposed station is from the M58 J1 and School Lane, and would reduce traffic

through Switch Island, the A59 and local roads towards the existing station at Maghull. Parking demand at

existing stations, including Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree would be reduced, allowing these

stations to fully cater for off-peak park and ride demand.

2.7.5 Option Summary

An assessment of the options against the various identified issues is provided in Table 2.17 below.

Table 2.17: Addressing the issues – which schemes solve which problems

Option Alleviate car parking pressure at existing

stations

Improved access by rail from northern

Maghull

Reduced road congestion

Supports developments in northern Maghull

Do Nothing

Option 1

Option 2

Option 3


This shows that the Do Nothing option is not viable; it offers no improvements to the identified problems.

Of the other options, Option 1 would alleviate two of the four issues and Option 2 would alleviate three of

the issues. Option 3 would provide improvements across all four issues, and is the preferred option in

terms of addressing all of the issues.

2.8 Strategic Fit

This section provides a brief overview of how the scheme fits with the vision and policies contained within

national, regional and local plans.

2.8.1 National Policies

Central Government policy has had a clear focus on transport and economic growth in recent years. The

Maghull North scheme provides a strategic fit with many of these policies through improving access by rail

within the City Region and improving access to the new employment and housing developments to the

east of Maghull.

Transport

The National Transport Strategy states that transport investment should support private sector investment

and support a rebalanced economy to ensure sustainable prosperity for all. In addition, the White Paper

Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon (2011) sets out a vision for:


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“A transport system that is an engine for economic growth but one that is also greener and safer and

improves quality of life in our communities”.

The new station at Maghull will improve accessibility by public transport to and from the local area and the

new housing and employment development sites adjacent to the station. It will also improve access from

the local area to the wider employment market in Liverpool and the City Region.

There are also a number of national policies which relate to improving accessibility to, and integration of

public transport, especially for the mobility impaired. These include:

Transport for everyone: an action plan to improve accessibility for all; and

Door to door: a strategy for improving sustainable transport integration.

By providing a new station in the northern area of Maghull public transport accessibility is improved for all

sections of the population, especially for those who have no access to a private vehicle. Bus stops on

School Lane outside the station will allow for cross-mode interchange to local bus services around

Maghull.

Economic Growth

Economic growth is one of the main drivers of National Government policy. The Plan for Growth (2011)

set out the Government’s economic policy objective:

“To achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth that is more evenly shared across the country and

between industries.”

One of the four key ambitions stated within the Plan for Growth (2011) is to encourage investment and

exports as a route to a more balanced economy. In addition, the National Planning Policy Framework

recommends that plans address barriers to investment, promote accessible development and exploit

opportunities for the use of sustainable transport.

The new station at Maghull North is seen as a constituent part of the new housing and employment

developments to the east of Maghull. It would provide easy public transport access to and from the sites,

with excellent access into Liverpool and the wider City Region.

2.8.2 Regional Policies

A number of regional transport and economic growth policies have been reviewed, relating both to

Merseytravel and the Liverpool City Region.

Merseytravel Corporate Plan

The Corporate Plan details the vision as follows:


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“Move the Liverpool City Region forward by striving to deliver a world class transport network”.

This is supported by a mission statement and specific themes. The mission is to “improve the social,

environmental and economic wellbeing of the Liverpool City Region, by leading the delivery of the Local

Transport Plan and enabling an integrated transport system that is high quality, customer focussed and

provides value for money”.

In terms of particular themes the scheme provides a positive fit with the following:

Embed transport in key City Region Developments;

Improving connectivity within the City Region and our immediate boundaries;

Review and develop a growth plan for integrated local rail services for 2014-2019; and

Develop a long term integrated rail strategy for future infrastructure investment for the City Region.

The station at Maghull North supports these themes through being a constituent part of the developments

to the east of Maghull. It would act as the public transport gateway for the new housing and employment

developments in the area. It would also provide a rail head for cross-boundary trips from the Skelmersdale

area.

Transport

Transport is fundamental to the LCR’s ambitions to develop the City Region into a globally competitive

freight and logistics hub. The LCR Strategic Economic Plan (SEP, 2014) promotes good transport

connectivity as essential for the quality of life and economy of the City Region. Moreover, the LCR Growth

Deal with Central Government confirms the priority to put transport at the heart of the economic

development through increased investment to support the creation of jobs.

One of the aims of the new station at Maghull North is to open up the development sites to the east of

Maghull, providing a high quality public transport option for journeys especially towards Liverpool.

The Third Local Transport Plan sets out the improvement plans for Merseyside travel between 2011 and

2024. The vision is to create a low carbon city, where sustainable transport is the mode of choice and

contributes to the economy and wellbeing of residents. The six goals of the plan are:

To help create the right conditions for sustainable economic growth by supporting the priorities of the

Liverpool City Region, the Local Enterprise Partnership and the Local Strategic Partnerships;

Provide and promote a clean, low emission transport system which is resilient to changes to climate

and oil availability;

Ensure the transport system promotes and enables improved health and wellbeing and road safety;


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Ensure equality of travel opportunity for all, through a transport system that allows people to connect

easily with employment, education, healthcare, other essential services and leisure and recreational

opportunities;

Ensure the transport network supports the economic success of the City Region by the efficient

movement of people and goods; and

Maintain our assets to a high standard.

The new station at Maghull North fits neatly with many of these objectives, through encouraging the use of

public transport and supporting economic growth.

Long Term Rail Strategy

The Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy was published in summer 2014. It provides a “vital and

timely vision of the role that an expanded rail offer can play in facilitating the proposed accelerated

economic growth of the Liverpool City Region”.

Within the strategy twelve strategic packages are set out, which all contribute to a range of issues which

have been identified. The twelfth package identifies a number of new stations which respond to new

developments, new markets and areas of latent demand. Maghull North is named within the document as

one of the new stations to be taken forwards as part of the strategy.

The rail strategy was approved by the City Region’s Combined Authority in September 2014, showing that

Maghull North has high profile, political support and is included in various high level policies and plans.

Economic Growth

The LCRs Strategic Economic Plan indicates that there is a deficit of 90,000 jobs in the City Region that

needs to be addressed. A key goal of the LCR Employment and Skills Strategy is to reduce worklessness

by providing opportunities for people to move into work. To achieve this, the strategy indicates that more

weight will be given to projects and interventions which increase the number jobs.

Economic growth is central to LCR policy, with the LCR SEP stating that the overarching goal for the City

Region is to produce a step change in the scale of enterprise and business activity, to expand the business

base and accelerate economic growth. This is broadly supported by the new station at Maghull North,

which will provide improved links to the new development sites east of Maghull, and improve accessibility

to and from the site to Liverpool and the wider employment market in the City Region.

2.8.3 Local Policies

The Local Plan for Sefton sets out a vision for the borough in 2030, which states that “Sefton has

successfully planned for and delivered sustainable development and growth across the borough, meeting


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the needs of its communities”. There are more specific visions for each of the five individual areas of the

borough, including Maghull, Lydiate, Melling, Aintree and the surrounding villages, as follows:

Provision of a range of new homes and local facilities;

A high quality neighbourhood to the east of Maghull, which is well integrated with the existing urban

area;

New employment opportunities with a new high quality business park;

New shopping facilities in the centre of Maghull;

Improved access to services and facilities provided by Maghull North station, new links to the M58 and

reduced congestion; and

Continued economic importance of Aintree Racecourse and the retail park.

In addition there are 14 specific objectives in the local plan, referring to improving accessibility in general

and access to services in particular. The new station at Maghull North is specifically mentioned within the

Local Plan, and will help contribute to delivering a range of the plan’s objectives.

2.8.4 Policy Summary

The strategic fit of the scheme with national, regional and local policies is summarised in Table 2.18 below.

This includes a Red Amber Green (RAG) assessment of the scheme against various identified policies and

objectives.

Table 2.18: Strategic fit of scheme with national, regional and local policies

Policy Key Extracts Strategic

Fit

National Policy

Plan for Growth, 2011 To achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth that is more evenly shared across the country and between industries

Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon: Making Local Transport Happen

Vision for a transport system that is an engine for economic growth but is also greener and safer and improves quality of life in communities

Make travelling on foot, by bike and on public transport more attractive

Enabling choice and providing better information

Reduce emissions and the carbon impact of journeys

Investment in new projects that promote green growth

Increasing fairness and social mobility

National Planning Policy Framework

Presumption in favour of sustainable development

Building a strong, competitive economy

Ensuring the vitality of town centres

Supporting a prosperous rural economy

Promoting sustainable transport

Supporting high quality communications infrastructure


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Fit

Delivering a wide choice of high quality homes

Requiring good design

Promoting healthy communities

Protecting Green Belt land

Meeting the challenge of climate change, flooding and coastal change

Conserving and enhancing the natural environment

Conserving and enhancing the historic environment

Facilitating the sustainable use of minerals

Door to Door: a strategy for improving sustainable transport integration

Make connections between different steps in the journey, and different modes of transport, easier

Providing better interchange facilities

Transport for Everyone: an action plan to improve accessibility for all

To deliver better access to jobs and key services through an accessible and socially inclusive transport system, by removing the barriers to travel and ensuring that social impacts are addressed in policy development and service delivery

National Transport Strategy: ‘Transport an Engine for Growth’

Make public transport an easier option for everyone and invest in walking and cycling

Support a rebalanced economy to ensure sustainable prosperity for all

Support jobs, strengthen the supply chain and help position the UK as a global leader for transport and innovation

Sub National Policy

LCR – Local Enterprise Partnership

Knowledge Economy Plan

Low Carbon Economy Action Plan 2011-2015

Superport Action Plan 2011-2020

Visitor Economy Strategy to 2020

Merseyside Local Transport Plan

Sustainable Economic Growth

Clean, low emission transport system

Improved health, well-being and road safety

Equality of travel opportunity for all

Efficient movement of people and goods

Maintain assets to highest standard

Enhancing cross-Mersey linkages

Strategic Economic Plan (SEP)

Economic growth

Increased productivity

Rebalanced economy

Liverpool City Region Growth Deal

Freight and logistics hub

Superport

Mersey Gateway

Economic Review Address underlying levels of employment


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Fit

Achieve an economically active population on a par with the UK pre-recession

LCR Employment and Skills Strategy and Commissioning Framework

Accelerate growth

Halving number of deprived wards in LCR which are within England’s worst 10%

Liverpool City Region Deal with Government

Increase employment

Place transport at the heart of economic development

Harness LCR’s science and knowledge assets

Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy

Issue 9 – rail network does not always link where people live with where people work

Issue 18 – lack of park and ride capacity on the Merseyrail network

Package 8 – Ormskirk-Preston enhancements

Package 12 – new railway stations

Local Policy

Sefton Local Plan New station at Maghull North to reduce congestion on M58

New east Maghull neighbourhood and high quality business park

Sefton Economic Strategy 2012-2022

An economy that connects Sefton to the City Region and beyond…the benefits of growth are maximised for the people and places of the Borough.

Sefton Sustainable Community Strategy

Children and young people

Safer and stronger communities

Healthier communities and older people

Economic development and sustainability

Strategic Fit with new station at Maghull North

Strong strategic fit with policy

Neutral / minimal strategic fit with policy

Negative strategic fit with policy


2.9 Political Support for the Scheme

Maghull North is specifically mentioned in the Sefton Core Strategy and policies relating to land use

developments in the north east of Maghull. It is viewed as an integral part of new housing and employment

developments proposed for the area. Merseytravel are taking the scheme forward as part of this funding

submission. The project supports and is mentioned in a range of regional and local policies and plans as

detailed in Section 2.8 above.

There is widespread local support for the scheme, with various statements having been made by local

councillors and the MP for Sefton Central, Bill Esterson. The various comments are detailed in Table 6.8.

It is noted that Maghull Town Council have previously undertaken a survey, which shows that 71% of


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respondents suggest that transport improvements are needed, whilst petitions have been gathered in

support of the station.

The station is part of a package of measures developed for the Liverpool City Region, designed to “support

the city’s science and transport infrastructure”. This was supported by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on

3 July 2014, and forms a part of a range of measures designed to develop a ‘Northern Powerhouse’ in

trying to rebalance the country’s economy, providing a counter-weight to London and the South East of

England.

Maghull North is one of the new stations mentioned in the Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy.

This was approved by the Combined Authority in September 2014. Councillor Liam Robinson, Chair of

Merseytravel Committee of the Combined Authority said: “This is about thinking big and being co-ordinated

in the way we grow and develop the rail network, so we can ensure we are properly focussed on

supporting the growth of the Liverpool City Region economy, not purely for our benefit but as our overall

contribution to the UK economy…It’s essential that we consider how projects work together to improve

connectivity and capacity, rather than delivering piecemeal projects in isolation.”

A new station at Maghull North was identified within Network Rail’s Route Plan O: Merseyside, published in

2010, for completion in Control Period 4, although the scheme was subsequently delayed. Various

Network Rail approvals and recommendations have been made in respect of Maghull North. This includes

the London North Western Investment Panel recommending a GRIP1-3 study, and the Large Project Panel

approving the proposed station, both in September 2014.

Various announcements by the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer

have been made relating to the City Region Growth Deal, which includes the railway station at Maghull

North. Specific comments are contained in Section 6.6. This shows that the scheme backs a range of

policies and plans and has political support at both local and national level. Section 6.6 also provides

details on the methods of future consultation.

Merseyrail have provided a letter outlining their support for the scheme, and this is shown in Appendix A.

A letter of support has also been provided by the Homes and Communities Agency and this is shown in

Appendix B.

2.10 Consultation

Limited consultation on the project has been undertaken to date. Previous work on the station at Maghull

North was progressed to GRIP3, and was halted prior to formal consultation. However, press releases

from local politicians show that there is local support for the scheme.

Merseytravel have developed a Stakeholder Communication and Management Strategy to manage future

consultation and publicity for the scheme. Further dialogue with local residents to understand their views

and comments on the scheme will be held in 2016, prior to the submission of the planning application. In

addition, a Rail Information Project is planned to run for four to six weeks during the GRIP3 study which will


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allow comments to be received on the design of the scheme. More details on consultation are provided in

Section 6.6.2.

2.11 Conclusions

The proposed station at Maghull North is designed to provide a park and site for the northern areas of

Maghull and the wider catchment areas, including Skelmersdale. It is considered to be a constituent

part of the new housing and employment developments to the east of Maghull, which will be adjacent

to the station. The station will improve public transport links to the north of Maghull and provide

improved accessibility between the area, Liverpool and the wider City Region.

The station will alleviate existing transport problems in the area, notably lack of available parking

spaces at station car parks at Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree. Additional car parking

spaces at Maghull North will free up spaces at existing stations to more adequately cater to all

passengers, in particular off-peak leisure demand which may be discouraged from using park and

ride facilities due to lack of available parking spaces. Encouraging park and ride journeys is likely to

contribute to reducing traffic congestion in the local area.


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3.1 Introduction

The Economic Case assesses options to identify all of their impacts, and the resultant value for money, to

fulfil HM Treasury’s requirements for appraisal and demonstrate value for money in the use of taxpayers’

money. In line with HM Treasury’s appraisal requirements, the impacts considered are not limited to those

directly impacting on the measured economy, nor to those which can be monetised. The economic,

environmental, social and distributional impacts of the proposal are all examined using qualitative,

quantitative and monetised information. In assessing value for money, all of these are consolidated to

determine the extent to which a proposal’s benefits outweigh the costs.

The economic appraisal has been tailored to reflect the needs of the Outline Business Case and is

discussed under the following headings:

Demand forecasts;

Methodology;

Assumptions;

Appraisal Results;

Social and Distributional Impacts;

Environmental Impacts;

Wider Economic Impacts;

Appraisal Summary Table;

Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits;

Value for Money Statement;

Sensitivity Tests;

Previous Analysis; and

Conclusion.

3.2 Demand Forecasts

In order to forecast demand at Maghull North we have made reference to the rail industry standard

Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH). We have considered the following:

Drive-up demand which is abstracted from adjacent stations, using a station choice model;

Drive-up demand which is new to rail, using a trip rate model;

Walk-up demand, which is new to rail using a trip rate model;

Demand from adjacent development sites, using a simple trip rate; and

3 Economic Case


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Walk-up and bus trips which are abstracted from Maghull, using a simple logit model.

The methodology is summarised in Figure 3.1 below.

Figure 3.1: Demand Forecasting Process


3.2.1 Drive-up Demand

A station choice model has been developed for the local area, and this looks at demand for the stations

between Ormskirk and Aintree, and also includes Fazakerley and Kirkby. It has been calibrated using

observed data and predicts station choice for drive-up demand (both car drivers and car passengers)

based on generalised costs and number of parking spaces; it also includes a station constant which has

been estimated for each station.

The model has been run both with and without Maghull North to show the relative change in demand at all

stations. No station constant has been calculated for Maghull North, and therefore we have had to apply

high level assumptions.

Abstraction from existing stations has been investigated as part of SDG’s Station Usage and Demand

Forecasts for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations produced in 2010 for the Department for

Transport (DfT). This included the following estimates:

Drive-up Demand

(Maghull Trip Rate)

Walk-up Demand

(Maghull Trip Rate)

Future Developments

(TRICS Trip Rate)

Opening Year

Do Something

Demand forecast

LCRTS Demand Matrix

Maghull

Drive-Up Abstraction

(Station Choice Model)

Walk-Up Abstraction

(PDFH4 B6.6)

Bus Abstraction

(PDFH4 B6.6)

LCRTS Demand Matrix

Ormskirk, Aughton

Park, Town Green,

Maghull, Old Roan,

Aintree, Fazakerley,

and Kirkby


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Edinburgh Park abstracted 22% of existing demand from South Gyle;

Shepherd’s Bush assumed one third of its total forecast demand would be abstracted from nearby

stations; and

Warwick Parkway assumed 60% of its total forecast demand would be abstracted from nearby stations.

A demand per car parking space percentage has been calculated for Maghull of 149% (i.e. more demand

than spaces which accounts for car passengers). The station constant term at Maghull North was initially

constrained so as to predict a similar demand per car parking space figure; this would assume that all car

parking spaces would be occupied by passengers abstracting from nearby stations.

As a reasonable estimate we have assumed that 30% of all drive-up trips at the station will be abstracted

from nearby stations. We have therefore constrained the station constant for Maghull North in order to

return a demand per car parking space figure close to 30%. We have then applied a factor to represent

car parking turnover rates; this has been developed from the mode split information at Maghull which

suggests each space is used on average by 1.49 vehicles.

The resulting demand abstraction is summarised in Table 3.1 below.

Table 3.1: Abstraction assessment – drive-up demand (2012 demand from model output)

Percentage change in demand Absolute change in demand

Aintree 0.0% 0

Aughton Park -7.9% -1,400

Fazakerley 0.0% 0

Kirkby 0.0% 0

Maghull 0.0% 0

Old Roan 0.0% 0

Ormskirk -3.9% -11,500

Town Green -37.1% -43,500

Maghull North 56,400


This shows that demand is predicted to be abstracted from stations to the north of Maghull North, with no

change recorded at Maghull itself. Examination of the station choice model shows that the majority of

drive-up demand at Maghull North will be attracted from the West Lancashire district, mainly from the

Skelmersdale, Town Green and Ormskirk areas.

Work to proportion out the abstracted demand to car drivers and car passengers has been undertaken

using mode split data from Maghull. This suggests that of the 56,400 journeys in 2012, 25,500 single

journeys per annum would be car drivers accessing the station and 30,900 single journeys per annum

would be car passengers. Together this would reduce revenue to the rail industry by £27,900 per annum,


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as passengers are abstracted from Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green to Maghull North which has

comparatively lower fares.

Work has also been undertaken to estimate new to rail demand at Maghull North for car drivers and car

passengers. This has made use of an isochrone based trip rate developed using local population and a

trip rate derived for Maghull station for car drivers. A demand uplift (as a percentage) has been applied to

car driving demand to represent car occupancy and take account of car passenger demand.

The number of available car parking spaces at Maghull North constrains the drive-up demand forecasts.

Drive-up demand growth has been capped once it reaches the number of available car parking spaces.

Only 70% of car parking spaces are predicted to be used by new drive-up demand, with the remaining

30% used by demand abstracting from nearby stations.

A summary of forecast drive-up demand is shown in Table 3.2 below.

Table 3.2: Drive-up Demand Forecast at Maghull North in 2018

Demand

Abstraction Total 56,400

Car Driver 25,500

Car Passenger 30,900

New-to-Rail Total 148,200

Car Driver 66,900

Car Passenger 81,300

Drive-up Totals 204,600


3.2.2 Walk-up Demand

In order to assess walk-up demand at Maghull North we have developed a trip-rate model. This is based

on surveys undertaken by Merseytravel at Maghull station. The catchment area of Maghull has been

divided into five concentric distance bands from the station. Population data from the 2011 census has

then been proportioned to each of the bands. Survey data from Merseytravel showing mode of access to

Maghull has also been divided into the distance bands, with calculations undertaken to produce an

estimate of walk-up demand in each distance band. This has allowed a walk-up trip-rate per thousand

population to be developed for Maghull.

A similar method has been employed to calculate the population in the time bands around Maghull North.

The trip-rate developed for Maghull has then been applied to the population statistics at Maghull North.

This assumes that walk-up trip rates at the two stations will be the same. At Maghull North we have

reduced the trip rates as appropriate to account for a lack of population to the east of the station site on

areas which have been identified as future development sites. These sites are dealt with separately in

Section 3.2.3 below.


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In order to eliminate double counting in the overlap area we have subtracted the existing trips to Maghull

from the Maghull North catchment area. These journeys are dealt with separately as part of an abstraction

assessment. A straight line running northwest to southeast has been drawn through the study area

equidistant from the stations. It has been assumed that there will be no net new trips to rail from the areas

to the south and west of this line.

Using this methodology it has been estimated that a total of 47,700 single journeys per annum in 2018 will

be generated at Maghull North, with associated annual revenue of (2010 prices).

3.2.3 Future Developments in Maghull

The Sefton Core Strategy identifies three development sites which are adjacent to the site of the proposed

station at Maghull North. These are:

MN2.29 – former Prison Site, Park Lane, Maghull 370 housing units

MN2.46 – land east of Maghull 1,400 housing units

MN2.49 – land east of Maghull, close to M58 J1 20ha of mixed employment use

In order to develop trip rates for the site we have reference the TRICS database to develop an appropriate

trip rate for rail passengers. Reference has been made to sites within 1km of a railway station.

For site MN2.29 we have assumed that all new rail journeys would use Maghull North station. For site

MN2.46 trips have been distributed to both Maghull railway station and the proposed station at Maghull

North using a simple logit model. This uses the methodology as specified in PDFH4 Section B6.4. Using

this method suggests that 46% of trips from the MN2.46 would use Maghull North, with 54% of demand

using Maghull.

The Sefton Local Plan makes some suggestion on the phasing of development, with policy MN3 imposing

specific conditions on the development of land east of Maghull. There is a specific requirement for 25% of

the employment development to be completed before the construction of the 500th dwelling takes place. It

is also stated that the majority of the employment development is likely to come forwards after 2020.

For the demand forecasts we have developed high level assumptions on development phasing based on

this information. It has been assumed that the Park Lane site will be fully developed by 2017, the opening

year of the station, with the Maghull East site contributing 140 houses (or 10% of the total) each year from

2018 until 2027, the final year of the Local Plan. It has also been assumed that 5 hectares of employment

land will be developed each year from 2019 until 2022. This satisfies the condition that 25% of the

employment land is released by the time of the completion of the 500th dwelling and that the majority of the

employment development will be post-2020.

The resulting development assumptions are shown in Table 3.3 below which also shows the expected

number of rail trips at Maghull North accruing from the developments.


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Table 3.3: Development Assumptions and resulting impacts on Maghull North

Year Cumulative

Development (dwellings)

Cumulative Development

(employment ha)

Total Trips at Maghull North

2018 510 - 300

2019 650 5 3.400

2020 790 10 5,700

2021 930 15 8,200

2022 1,070 20 10,600

2023 1,210 20 11,300

2024 1,350 20 12,100

2025 1,490 20 12,800

2026 1,630 20 13,600

2027 1,770 20 14,400


Note: Trips are rounded to nearest hundred and includes demand ramp-up for station opening.

3.2.4 Walk and Bus Abstraction from Maghull

An assessment of likely demand abstraction for walk-up and bus journeys from the existing station at

Maghull has been undertaken. This looks at the following scenarios:

Walking trips to Maghull which may switch to walking to Maghull North;

Bus trips to Maghull which may switch to walking to Maghull North; and

Bus trips to Maghull which may switch to bus to Maghull North.

An additional scenario, where walking trips to Maghull may switch to bus to Maghull North is considered

unlikely to occur so has not been accounted for in this assessment.

A simple logit model (as specified in PDFH4 Section B6.5) has been used to assess station choice in a

number of overlap areas, based on the relative crow-fly distances from the two stations. The assessment

considers the relative attractiveness of the two stations, based on catchment data for Maghull from 2014

supplied by Merseytravel. The results of this assessment are shown in Table 3.4 below.

Table 3.4: Abstraction assessment – walk-up and bus demand at Maghull

Maghull demand Switches to Maghull North % Switching Annual Demand

Walk-up Walk-up

Bus Walk-up

Bus Bus


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Maghull demand Switches to Maghull North % Switching Annual Demand

TOTAL ABSTRACTION 113,700

Note: All revenue is presented in 2010 prices. represents proportion of total bus demand at Maghull prior to abstraction which

will switch to Maghull North as walk-up trips, i.e. in total of bus demand at Maghull is forecast to switch to Maghull North


Using this methodology suggests that 113,700 single journeys per annum in 2018 will switch from Maghull

to Maghull North. It is noted that there is a transfer of revenue between the two stations; assuming that

tickets from Maghull North will be priced higher than at Maghull there will be (2010 prices)

per annum of new revenue in 2018 generated to the rail industry.

3.2.5 Demand Summary

A summary of the demand forecast at Maghull North is provided in Table 3.5 below.

Table 3.5: Forecast demand and revenue at Maghull North in 2018

Annual demand Net Revenue (2010 prices)

New car driver demand 66,900

New car passenger demand 81,300

Abstracted car driver demand 25,500

Abstracted car passenger demand 30,900

New walk-up demand 49,600

New demand from future developments 2,500

Abstracted walk-up demand 78,400

Abstracted bus demand 34,200

Do Something base year demand 369,300

Note: Revenue is presented in 2010 prices


This suggests that a total of 369,300 single journeys per annum will be generated by the station at

Maghull North in 2018. Of these 169,000 journeys will be abstracted from nearby station, and this

represents 45% of predicted total demand, with net new trips being generated by the scheme.

It has been assumed that ticket prices from Maghull North will be priced higher than those at

Maghull. This represents a change in the assumptions compared to those used in the economic

assessments in the Outline Business Case. This level of change has been made following discussions

held between Merseytravel and Merseyrail regarding the proposed pricing strategy for the new station. It is

estimated that demand at Maghull North will generate of new rail revenue (2010 prices) in

2018.


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3.2.6 Impacts on Through Travellers

As part of this assessment we have assumed that the additional call at Maghull North will add two minutes

(1.5 minutes journey time plus an additional 30 seconds dwell time) to the journey time between Maghull

and Town Green. This will reduce the attractiveness of journeys over this section of route and will result in

reduced demand and revenue for journeys which use this section of route. This assumption has been

confirmed by Merseyrail.

In order to assess the likely impacts we have run the long term rail strategy demand matrices through the

OR23 version of MOIRA, which was obtained to test the City Region Long Term Rail Strategy. This

features a revision to the Merseyside infill to take account of reduced demand from Ormskirk, Aughton

Park and Town Green to Liverpool as a result of abstraction to the new station at Maghull North.

The results of this calculation are shown in Table 3.6 below, with revenue having been assessed by taking

average revenue for each movement and multiplying by the appropriate demand figures. We have then

limited this figure to 56% of the total (i.e. demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green minus car

drivers and car passengers, who have already switched stations within the station choice model)

Table 3.6: Impacts of adding the call at Maghull North on through passengers

Demand Revenue (2010 prices)

Impact of 2 minute journey time increase -37,900


Using this methodology suggests that 37,900 single journeys in 2018 will be lost from the rail network, with

an associated revenue decrease of . The flows showing the largest demand and revenue changes

are from Ormskirk to Maghull, Old Roan, Aintree and Liverpool.

3.2.7 Induced Demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green

As part of this assessment we have assumed that demand which abstracts from the stations at Ormskirk,

Aughton Park and Town Green allows additional passengers to use the car parks at these stations. We

have estimated the number of car parking spaces which are ‘vacated’ at the stations by passengers who

abstract to Maghull North, and multiplied this by the car park turnover rate of 1.49. We have also assumed

a car occupancy rate of 2.12 for these trips. We have applied off-peak revenue to these journeys as it is

assumed that all journeys would be made in the off-peak period.

The results are shown in Table 3.7 below.

Table 3.7: Forecast induced demand at Ormskirk, Aughton Park and Town Green in 2018

Demand Revenue

Ormskirk 10,800

Aughton Park 1,300

Town Green 41,000


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Demand Revenue

TOTAL 53,100


3.2.8 Impacts on Crowding

Reference has been made to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) to investigate the

impact of on-train crowding. This uses the method detailed in PDFH B6.4.2 to identify crowding over the

course of a typical day. This assumes that train load factors (demand divided by available seats) are

distributed throughout the day using a GAMMA distribution. Demand figures, seat numbers and the

maximum observed load factor are input into the calculation which outputs the level of demand which is

likely to be lost from on-train crowding.

Liverpool-bound demand figures have been taken for the Walton to Kirkdale section of the Ormskirk

service from the Long Term Rail Strategy matrices using MOIRA which have then been added to the

Maghull North demand forecasts. This is assumed to be the busiest section of Liverpool-bound services

from Ormskirk, whilst deliberately excluding the sections of route shared with the Kirkby and Southport

services in order to simplify the calculation.

The crowding calculations have been undertaken for both 2018, the opening year, and 2036, the forecast

year. This suggests that, with the addition of Maghull North, there will be no demand response to on-train

crowding.

3.3 Methodology

3.3.1 Assumptions

The business case methodology has followed the guidance outlined in the Government’s web-based

transport appraisal guidance (WebTAG) for railway investment business cases, primarily contained within

TAG Units A1.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis and A5.3 Rail Appraisal. This has led to the following assumptions

being applied:

Base forecast year: 2012

Scheme opening year: 2018 (May)

Demand growth cap: 2036 (20 years from current year)

Appraisal period: 60 years

Price base: 2010 market prices

Discounting: 3.5% for 30 years (to 2046), then 3.0% thereafter


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We have also used a ‘ramp-up’ factor for demand, revenue and benefit calculations, based upon evidence

contained in the rail industry Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) in Table B12.1 of

PDFHv5.1. This assumes that not all demand, revenue and benefit will accrue in the opening year of the

scheme, taking into account lag effects, with people changing their behaviour over a number of years.

For the purposes of the appraisal we have assumed the following:

Year 1, end of 2018 – 11.3% of demand/revenue/benefits realised in opening year;

Year 2, end of 2019 – 70.0% of demand/revenue/benefits realised;



Thereafter – 100% of demand/revenue/benefits realised.

This follows the advice contained in Table B12.1 of PDFH5 regarding demand lags and the build-up of

demand for major new services. This assumes an opening date of December 2017, and we have

assumed that the end of the 2017 financial year will therefore have accrued one quarter’s worth of

demand.

For through travellers, the same advice has been followed but this time relating to deteriorations in

generalised journey times. The resulting demand lags are:

Year 1, end of 2018 – 15.9% of demand/revenue/benefits realised in opening year;


Year 3, end of 2020 – 97.1% of demand/revenue/benefits realised; and

Year 4, end of 2021 and thereafter – 100% of demand/revenue/benefits realised.

Future year forecasts have been calculated by taking the 2012 base year demand forecasts and applying

the relevant underlying growth factors using elasticities specified in PDFH, as shown in Table 3.8 below.

Table 3.8: Data sources and elasticities used in growth forecasts

Data Source Elasticity Source

Population TEMPRO 6.2 PDFH5 Table B1.5

Employment TEMPRO 6.2 PDFH5 Table B1.5

GDP per Capita TAG Data Book Annual Parameters (Dec. 2015) PDFH5 Table B1.5

Rail Fares RPI+0% per annum PDFH4 Table 3.4

Car Ownership TEMPRO 6.2 PDFH5 Table B2.5

Car Fuel Prices TAG Data Book M4.2.2 (December 2015) PDFH5 Table B2.5

Car Journey Times TAG Data Book M4.2.3 (December 2015) PDFH5 Table B2.5

Bus Fares RPI+1% per annum (assumption) PDFH5 Table B2.5

Bus Journey Times TAG Data Book M4.2.3 (December 2015) PDFH5 Table B2.5


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Car ownership and population and employment statistics (taken from planning data) have been sourced

from the LEP TEMPRO v6.2, based on a study area incorporating the zones of Maghull/Lydiate, rural

(Sefton), Skelmersdale, Ormskirk and rural (West Lancashire) as a representation of the Maghull North

catchment area. TEMPRO data has been extracted for the 2011-2041 period, whilst GDP per capita and

car fuel price statistics have been sourced from the TAG data book (Annual Parameters and Tables A1.3.7

and A1.3.9). Note that in accordance with TAG Unit M4 (paragraph 8.3.3) real percentage GDP growth

has been reduced by 0.2% each year to account for switching between the RPI and CPI measures of

inflation within the GDP forecasts.

The resulting year-on-year changes raised to the relevant elasticities have been combined to create annual

local growth forecasts for 2017, the assumed opening year, and each year until 2076 to allow for a 60-year

appraisal period. Demand growth is capped in 2036, 20 years beyond the current year for all growth

factors in accordance with guidance contained within TAG Unit A5.3.

Rail fares are assumed to rise at the rate of inflation (measured by the Retail Price Index, RPI) for 20 years

from now, in line with fares policy agreed in the Merseyrail concession agreement8. After this no further

changes are assumed as specified in TAG Unit A5.3. Rail fare increases have been converted to real

terms increases using the GDP deflator specified in the TAG databook.

Revenues per passenger have been calculated using current ticket prices to Liverpool from the relevant

stations (i.e. Ormskirk, Aughton Park, Town Green, Maghull, Old Roan and Aintree). These have been

deflated to 2010 prices so as to be in the correct price base for input into the economic assessment. For

Maghull North we have assumed revenue per journey is higher than that for Maghull.

Revenue growth is based on the current fares policy for Merseyrail, which specifies RPI+0% growth per

annum. Revenues have been converted to real terms prices using the GDP deflator in the TAG databook.

In line with guidance in TAG Unit A5.3 revenue increase uses the same cap year as for demand.

3.3.2 User Benefits

User benefits take the form of time savings. These are relatively simple to calculate and involve a

comparison of the ‘before’ and ‘after’ scenarios to show the gain for each relevant origin-destination pair.

An adjustment is then applied such that all existing rail passengers who switch to the new station are

assumed to enjoy the full benefit of that time saving, whilst new passengers attracted to the railway as a

result of the new station are assumed to enjoy half of the total number of minutes saved9.

8 http://www.merseyrail.org/seasonal/rpi-announcement-merseyrail-fares.aspx

9 Those who would not otherwise have travelled are assumed to enjoy half of the benefit – this convention is known as the ‘rule of a half’


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Standard monetary values for different journey purposes (detailed in TAG data book A1.3.1) are then

applied for each year to convert the total number of minutes saved into a financial value according to the

purpose of the journeys concerned. Values of time are also assumed to grow in line with forecasts

included in the TAG data book A1.3.2 (dated December 2015).

For Maghull North we have assessed the benefits to the following user groups:

Drive-up demand, which is either new to rail or abstracted from adjacent stations;

Walk-up demand which is new to rail;

Walk-up demand which is abstracted from Maghull; and

Bus demand which is abstracted from Maghull.

3.3.3 Non-user Benefits

Non-user benefits come under two main categories; time savings to road users as a result of road

decongestion (itself a result of some road traffic diverting to rail), and reductions in the social costs of car

use – again as a result of road traffic diverting to rail. These are referred to as Marginal External

Congestion (MEC) costs, and the following elements have been counted according to TAG valuations

contained in the TAG data book A5.4:

Congestion;

Road accidents;

Greenhouse gas emissions;

Local air quality;

Road traffic noise; and

Road infrastructure repairs.

External costs of car use resulting from new demand at Maghull North have been applied, with net

decongestion benefits and indirect tax costs calculated as the net change in vehicle kilometres. We have

also considered the impacts of increased vehicle kilometres resulting from the loss of demand of through

travellers. The resulting change in vehicle kilometres is shown in Table 3.9 below.

Table 3.9: Change in vehicle kilometres as a result of the scheme - Year 1

Annual Distance

(kilometres)

New car driver demand -356,100

New car passenger demand -263,300

Abstracted car demand 7,900

New walk-up demand -324,100

New demand from future developments -


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Annual Distance

(kilometres)

Abstracted walk-up demand -

Abstracted bus demand -

Impacts on through travellers 137,600

Impacts from induced demand -264,500

Total Impact -1,062,500


This assumes that 44% of new users to rail formerly drove from their origin to destination, but now drive

from their origin to Maghull North station. This guidance is contained within Appendix C of TAG Unit A5.4

Marginal External Costs. This figure has been used to forecast the change in trip numbers rather than a

change in train kilometres.

For through travellers it has been assumed that 26% of demand is lost to rail transfers to car drivers, again

using guidance in TAG Unit A5.4. This figure is slightly different to that above as the forecasting is a

change in train kilometres. Using outputs from MOIRA the total end-to-end journey distance has been

calculated for each movement to calculate annual vehicle kilometre changes.

For induced demand we have assumed that all car driver trips were previously to / from Liverpool City

Centre

The change in vehicle-km is then used to calculate the total benefit of the marginal economic costs. This

uses pence per vehicle-km which are contained in A5.4.2 of the TAG databook (December 2015). Pence

per vehicle-km are reported for several road types, so an assessment has been made of the type of roads

that are likely to see a change in vehicle-km. It has been assumed that:

Journeys abstracting from local stations to Maghull North are on “other roads, inner and outer

conurbations”;

Journeys between the Maghull area and Liverpool are on “‘A’ roads, inner and outer conurbations” for

the 11.6km between Switch Island and Liverpool, and on “other roads, inner and outer conurbations”

for the remainder; and

Journeys which are displaced from rail are assumed to be on “‘A’ roads, inner and outer conurbations”

for the 11.6km between Switch Island and Liverpool, and on “average” roads for the remainder.

Applying the monetary values from the TAG databook allows us to calculate monetary savings for the

seven elements of Marginal External Costs.

3.3.4 Exclusions

We have excluded demand responses resulting from any changes in rolling stock in the future from the

benefit calculation.


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3.3.5 Summary

A summary of the various sources of the costs and benefits of the scheme are shown in Figure 3.2.

Figure 3.2: Sources of benefits of the scheme


3.4 Appraisal Results

From the above benefit and cost data for the scheme, the monetary values resulting have been reduced to

a common basis (2010 prices), costs have been converted from factor prices to market prices, and

discounted for the 60-year appraisal to 2010 values.

3.4.1 Transport Economic Efficiency

The appraisal shows that the journey time benefits will accrue both from new to rail demand and also

demand abstracted from nearby stations.

In line with guidance contained within TAG Unit A5.3 we have included new revenue in the Transport

Economic Efficiency (TEE) table; Unit A5.3 states that extra revenue accrues to private sector providers,

which is negated by a change in the revenue transfer line. We have also included the operating cost

changes and developer contributions within the TEE table.

The completed TEE table is included in Appendix D. The overall Present Value of Benefits (PVB)

contributed by TEE is £13.800 million (2010 prices, discounted to 2010 prices).

Journey Time Savings Marginal Economic CostsIncreased Revenue

• New Trips

• Abstracted Trips

• Development Trips

• Through traveller impacts

(negative impact)

• Induced demand

• New drive-up trips

• New walk-up trips

• Development trips

• Through traveller impacts

(negative impact)

• Induced demand

• New trips

• Abstracted trips

• Through travellers

(negative impact)

• Induced demand


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3.4.2 Public Accounts

The impact on public accounts is a cost to the broad transport budget of £7.616 million (2010 prices,

discounted to 2010 prices). In this case the increased revenue is seen as a revenue transfer in the Public

Accounts table. Developer contributions towards the scheme and an increase in net revenue (as a change

in grant/subsidy) are also reflected in the public accounts. These two elements are represented as

negative numbers, and have the effect of reducing costs to Local Government Funding.

As a result of marginal economic costs and reductions in the use of car there is a smalll loss of £0.855

million (2010 prices, discounted to 2010) in Indirect Tax Revenues for Central Government, which is

represented as a cost to Central Government. There are also minor benefits to Local Government

resulting from reduced maintenance on local roads as a result of mode shift from road to rail.

The completed Public Accounts table is shown in Appendix E.

A comparison between discounted revenue and discounted operating costs is shown in Table 3.10 below.

This refers to net revenue – i.e. new to rail revenue as well as the loss of revenue due to increased travel

time for through-trips along the railway line.

Table 3.10: Comparison between operating costs and net revenue – revenue divided by operating costs

Core Scenario

2018 (opening year) 0.08

2019 0.49

2020 0.61

2021 1.49

2036 (demand cap) 1.64

2076 (end of appraisal) 1.08

For full 60-year appraisal period 1.33

Subsidy change over 60 years

(2010 market prices, discounted to 2010)


This shows that in the core scenario revenue covers the operating costs from the fourth year of the

scheme; over the course of the 60-year appraisal period revenue exceeds operating costs by 30% and

generates a revenue surplus of .

3.5 Social and Distributional Impacts

The social and distributional impacts of a scheme are assessed using guidance contained within TAG

Units A4.1 Social Impact Appraisal and A4.2 Distributional Impact Appraisal. The following sections

present the results of the work undertaken on these elements of the appraisal.


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3.5.1 Social Impacts

The assessment of the social impacts of a scheme is covered by guidance within TAG Unit 4.1. This

outlines the requirements for a social impact appraisal which covers the human experience of the transport

system and its impact on social factors. This is additional to those impacts considered within the economic

and environmental impact areas of TAG. Each social impact is assessed as part of the appraisal and the

assessment is included in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST).

The eight social impacts are:

Accidents;

Physical Activity;

Security;

Severance;

Journey Quality;

Option and Non-use Values;

Accessibility; and

Personal Affordability.

The methods prescribed in WebTAG Unit 4.1 have been utilised to determine any beneficial or adverse

impacts of the schemes preferred option. The assessments are mainly based on the analysis of qualitative

data as only a small amount of quantifiable data is available.

A number of the impacts in this social study are further assessed within the distributional impact appraisal

in accordance with WebTAG Unit 4.2. The social impact assessment looks at impacts on the whole

population within the identified impact areas, whilst the distributional impact appraisal looks at the impacts

on vulnerable population groups.

The appraisal has assigned an assessment score on a seven point scale for each impact area. A

summary of the appraisal is shown in Table 3.11 below. Full details of the appraisal are given in Appendix

F.

Table 3.11: Social impacts of the scheme

Impact Area Score

Accidents Slight Beneficial

Physical Activity Neutral

Security Neutral

Severance Moderate Beneficial

Journey Quality Moderate Beneficial


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Impact Area Score

Option and Non-use Values Large Beneficial

Accessibility Moderate Beneficial

Personal Affordability Neutral


It is considered that Maghull North station will have the greatest impact on option and non-use values due

to the high number of households within the catchment area. Although this is a difficult area to quantify, it is

expected that the large number of residents now living in the catchment area of this station will value the

travel option greatly. The creation of the new railway station will provide improved access to the public

transport network for residents of northern Maghull. Access to Liverpool city centre will improve for

commuters who would look to use the station as a park and ride facility. At present, these commuters are

deterred from using the existing Maghull station as a park and ride facility due to the car park operating at

capacity and uncertainty over the availability of parking spaces.

The social impact appraisal has found that Maghull North will deliver a broadly positive benefit. At present,

no adverse impacts are expected to result from the scheme.

3.5.2 Distributional Impacts

Distributional impacts consider the variance of the scheme’s impact across different social groups. Both

beneficial and / or adverse distributional impacts of the proposed interventions have been considered, and

social groups likely to be affected have also been identified. These indicators include the following:

User Benefits;

Noise:

Air Quality;

Accidents;

Security;

Severance;

Accessibility; and

Personal Affordability.

A distributional impact appraisal encompasses a number of stages. Step 1 consists of an initial screening

process which examines the eight impacts and determines whether they need to be appraised further.

Step 2A confirms the impact area extent for when the impacts are mapped using GIS software. Step 2B

identifies social groups and 2C identifies related amenities in the impact areas. Finally, Step 3 appraises

the results and provides an assessment of the impacts of the intervention.


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The screening process considers the areas where the transport intervention might have negative or

positive impacts on specific social groups. These groups include: children, older people, people with a

limiting long term illness (LLTI), Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) communities, people without access to a

car, and people on low incomes. These are further explained in Table 1.1 from TAG Unit 4.2, which

highlights the groups considered for each impact.

This appraisal has been undertaken by giving consideration to the social effects (both beneficial and

adverse) of the proposed scheme, against the eight distributional impacts in TAG Unit 4.2. The effects of

the scheme have been identified using a seven-point scale running from large adverse to large beneficial

(including neutral, moderate and slight impacts.

A summary of the assessment scores produced as part of this appraisal are included in Table 3.12, with

the full Distributional Impact Appraisal included as Appendix G for completeness.

Table 3.12: Summary of the Distributional Impacts of the scheme

Score

User Benefits Moderate Beneficial

Noise Neutral (scoped out)

Air Quality Moderate Adverse

Accidents Moderate Beneficial

Security Neutral (scoped out)

Severance Moderate Beneficial

Accessibility Moderate Beneficial

Personal Affordability Neutral (scoped out)


The distributional impact appraisal has found that the scheme will deliver broadly positive benefits.

3.6 Environmental Impacts

As part of the Outline Business Case a preliminary environmental appraisal was undertaken in December

2014 comprising of two sections:

Section A) scoping exercise that details the proposed environmental appraisal and environmental

baseline; and

Section B) preliminary Appraisal Summary Table (AST).

This environmental appraisal, which forms a part of the Full Business Case, is informed by the preliminary

AST and aims to update the table to provide a detailed environmental assessment for each of the eight

topics. The full Environmental Impact Appraisal document is included as Appendix H, whilst the following

section provides a summary of the appraisal.

The following topics have been considered within the appraisal:


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Noise – including all aspects of ambient noise and noise from transportation and traffic as well as other

related infrastructure;

Air Quality (regional and local) – including all emission and pollution to air from vehicles;

Greenhouse Gases – relating to the impacts of the transport scheme on greenhouse gas emissions,

including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone, whether they are increased or decreased;

Townscape or Landscape – referring to the physical and social characteristics of the urban or rural

environment and the way in which these characteristics are perceived;

Historic Environment – including historical and cultural buildings, assets and archaeological sites and

areas such as parks, gardens, and public spaces;

Biodiversity – including earth heritage (geological) interests, flora and fauna; and

Water Environment – relating to all aspects of the water environment, including groundwater and

surface water and aquatic ecology.

The effects of the scheme have been appraised using a seven-point scale in accordance with TAG criteria.

This analysis serves as a high-level environmental appraisal to understand the potential impacts of the

scheme on the environment. The environmental appraisal is summarised in Table 3.13 below.

Table 3.13: Environmental Appraisal Summary

Environmental Impact Summary of Impacts Qualitative Monetary (£, NPV)

Seven-point Scale

Noise

Assuming appropriate noise mitigation measures are put into place, it is not anticipated that there will be any significant impacts of the scheme on noise.

Neutral £64,630 0

Air Quality (Local)

The overall impact of the scheme on local air quality is anticipated to be slight adverse and therefore, not significant.

Slight adverse £407 -

Air Quality (Regional)

There is not expected to be a significant change to emissions of regional air pollutants as a result of the scheme. The overall impact of the scheme on regional air quality is anticipated to be slight adverse and therefore not significant.

Slight adverse n/a -


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Environmental Impact Summary of Impacts Qualitative Monetary (£, NPV)

Seven-point Scale

Greenhouse Gases

The scheme will have a beneficial effect on greenhouse gas emissions.

Due to the availability of data it was not possible to compare the magnitude of the change in greenhouse gas emissions with the local authority baseline.

Taking vehicle-km as an indicator of energy consumption (directly linked to greenhouse gas emissions), the magnitude of the change is expected to be of the order of 0.01% when compared to the local authority baseline.

Change in non-traded carbon over 60 years: unknown

Change in traded carbon over 60 years: unknown

£198,273

En

viron

men

tal C

ap

ita

l A

ppro

ach

Landscape

Permanent loss of mature vegetation within railway corridor, construction and operation of a new railway building and related infrastructure, construction of a new car park and operation of a new station and car park are anticipated to have a moderate adverse impact on landscape.

Moderate Adverse

n/a --

Townscape Scoped out in favour of a landscape assessment

Historic Environment Installation of new infrastructure, affecting buried archaeological remains

Slight Adverse n/a -

Biodiversity

Potential impact to breeding birds, which can be mitigated if construction is undertaken outside of the nesting season (March-August)

Neutral n/a 0

Water Environment

None identified providing suitable mitigation is incorporated into the design of the scheme

Neutral n/a 0

Note: All monetary values are presented in 2010 prices, discounted to 2010


3.7 Wider Economic Impacts

The Wider Economic Impact assessment has been completed using Mott MacDonald’s Transparent

Economic Assessment Model (TEAM), which is a versatile tool designed to calculate the economic impact

of proposed infrastructure interventions and policy measures. It has been designed by experts in

economics, economic development and regeneration and is in-line with HM Treasury Green Book


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principles and Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) additionality guidelines. The tool measures the

potential stimulus to economic activity from interventions by investigating the consequential employment

salary, Gross Value Added (GVA) and investment benefits that would otherwise not have arisen.

The function of the TEAM model used in this element of work is illustrated in Figure 3.3 below, with further

details on the inputs and assumptions used in the assessment provided in Appendix I.

Figure 3.3: Transparent Economic Assessment Model (TEAM) used for wider economic impact assessment


Future land uses at Maghull relate to the development of the sites listed in the Sefton Local Plan. Land

within Maghull through the development of allocated sites (excluding safeguarded land for future

development) has the potential to deliver up to 2,100 dwellings and 20 ha of employment land. This is


Table 3.14: Development land in Maghull contained in the Sefton Local Plan

Site size

(hectares) Number of dwellings

Employment land (net hectares)

MN2.27 Land at Turnbridge Lane, Maghull 1.6 40 -

MN2.28 Land north of Kenyon Lane, Lydiate 9.7 295 -

MN2.29 Former prison site, Park Lane, Maghull 13.6 370 -

MN2.46 Land east of Maghull 86 1,400 20ha business park

B1, B2 and B8 land use

TOTAL 110.9 2,105 20

Source: Sefton Local Plan

The potential economic benefits of the development site have been calculated as follows:

Input of key land use details into TEAM;

Calculation of the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts through feeding the proposed land

uses by size through TEAM; and

Adjusting the economic impact at a gross level to a net level throughout the analysis. This adjusts the

gross impacts to account for additionality.

The outputs from TEAM suggest that:


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Land east of Maghull will deliver an additional 1,120 net additional jobs and £61.6 million of net GVA

per annum; and

Housing construction will deliver 58 net additional jobs, a further 17 jobs through multiplier effects and

£2.9 million of net GVA per annum.

The assessment is concerned with understanding the level of economic benefit which can be attributed to

the station at Maghull North. The station is directly related to the economic benefits given that it will

improve public transport accessibility and support sustainable housing and employment benefit. It is also

noted that the Sefton Local Plan places limits on the level of development to the east of Maghull prior to

construction of the station.

Considering the issues above, it has been assumed that 20% of the net annual direct, indirect and induced

benefits come from the development of the station at Maghull North. The annual net additional benefits

associated with the station are summarised in Table 3.15 below.

Table 3.15: Wider Economic Impacts attributable to Maghull North

Jobs GVA per annum

Employment land impacts – land east of Maghull

Gross Direct Impacts 2,378 £140.8 million

Net Additional Impacts 1,217 £65.6 million

Growth Attributable to Maghull North 243 £13.1 million

Housing land impacts – from construction period

Gross Direct Impacts 150 £5.7 million

Net Additional Impacts 75 £2.9 million

Growth Attributable to Maghull North 15 £0.6 million

Total Growth Attributable to Maghull North 259 £13.7 million


The overall net economic benefits to Sefton, on an annual basis, which are directly attributable to the

opening of Maghull North railway station, are 259 jobs and £13.7 million of GVA.

3.8 Appraisal Summary Table

The full Appraisal Summary Table is included in Appendix J.

3.9 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits

The Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table is shown in Appendix K. Table 3.16

summarises the various costs and benefits of the scheme.


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Table 3.16: Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits for Maghull North

Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits £, discounted to 2010 prices,

in 2010 market prices

Noise £75,114

Local Air Quality £150

Greenhouse Gases £229,881

Journey Quality -

Physical Activity -

Accidents £1,126,844

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (commuting) £8,487,107

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (other) £6,085,126

Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers -£771,792

Wider Public Finances (indirect taxation benefits) -£855,843

PRESENT VALUE OF BENEFITS (PVB) £14,376,586

Broad Transport Budget £7,616,655

PRESENT VALUE OF COSTS (PVC) £7,616,655

Overall Impacts

NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) £6,759,930

BENEFIT TO COST RATIO (BCR) 1.89

This shows a present value of cost of the scheme of £7.819 million against a present value of benefits of

£12.823 million having allowed for the impacts of indirect taxation on the economy and marginal economic

costs of noise, air quality, greenhouse gases and accidents. Overall this gives a Benefit to Cost Ratio

(BCR) of 1.89.

3.10 Value for Money Statement

The Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) can be classified into one of five ‘bands’ detailed in the Government’s

Value for Money (VfM) guidance10. These are:

Poor VfM if BCR is below 1.0;

Low VfM if BCR is between 1.0 and 1.5;

Medium VfM if BCR is between 1.5 and 2.0;

High VfM if BCR is between 2.0 and 4.0; and

Very High VfM if BCR is greater than 4.0.

10 Value for Money Assessment: Advice Note for Local Transport Decision Makers, Department for Transport, December 2013


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As described above, the benefit to cost ratio is calculated as 1.89, and this represents medium value for

money. It is noted that the core scenario uses TEMPRO growth forecasts, and these have historically

underestimated population growth on Merseyside. In response to this we have undertaken a sensitivity

test using population and employment forecasts developed for input into the recently published Liverpool

City Region long term rail strategy, which are considered to more accurate.

3.11 Sensitivity Tests – Alternative Growth Forecasts

Sensitivity tests have been undertaken to show the likely impacts on the benefits of the scheme. These

are:

Sensitivity Test 1 – TEMPRO growth forecasts with 20 year growth cap;

Sensitivity Test 2 – TEMPRO growth forecasts with a 10 year growth cap; and

Sensitivity Test 3 – TEMPRO growth forecasts with a 30 year growth cap.

The first test presents the results using TEMPRO compared to the Core Scenario using the LEP forecast

used in the Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy, which is considered by Merseytravel to better

represent the growth forecast for Merseyside compared to TEMPRO.

Sensitivity Tests 2 and 3 are specified in TAG. TAG Unit A5.3 Rail Appraisal specifies that demand should

be capped after 20 years from the current year and this has been included in the core scenario. It also

specified that sensitivity tests with demand caps of 10 and 30 years should be undertaken.

It should be noted that the LEP forecast provides annual data to 2030 and that for subsequent years (i.e.

2030 to 2036) information has been extrapolated using the 2012-30 annual average rate of increase. This

is necessary so as to produce a comparative demand cap with the TEMPRO scenario (i.e. 20 years after

current year) and so that a demand decrease isn’t seen between 2030 and 2036 (this would be the case if

demand was being driven by prices and car ownership alone).

A direct comparison of the scenarios is shown in Table 3.17 below.

Table 3.17: Comparison of costs and benefits with the Core Scenario

Core Scenario

LEP growth 20 year cap

TEMPRO growth 20 year cap



PV Benefits £14.377m £11.467m

£10.892m

£12.234m

PV Costs £7.617m £8.830m

£9.798m

£8,299m

Net Present Value £6.759m £2.637m

£1.094m

£3.935m

Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89 1.30 1.11 1.47


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Core Scenario

LEP growth 20 year cap




Prices are discounted to 2010 and presented in 2010 market prices

3.12 Capital Costs

Network Rail have produced a Cost Estimate for the proposed station at Maghull North to GRIP 3 level.

Network Rail state that they have undertaken efforts to ensure that their estimate at this stage represents

best value for money, as such it represents a reduction on costs previously advised. Network Rail has

been asked for a revised financial profile now that the Cost Estimate has been released. This will be

aligned with the baseline schedule once received.

A Scheme cost of (2010 prices) has been applied in the appraisal. This is calculated as

follows:

A total cost of £13,000,000 as advised by Merseytravel (2017 prices). This comprises Network Rail’s

cost estimate of and the additional cost of landscaping, drainage and other items advised

by Merseytravel. The following cost items from Network Rail’s Cost Estimate were excluded:-

– risk element (2017 prices).

– risk fund (2017 prices).

This provides a sub-total cost of .

Costs have been adjusted for risk and optimism bias. This follows the advice contained within TAG Unit

A5.3 Rail Appraisal which suggests that no Quantified Risk Assessment contingency is required at GRIP

Stage 3, but optimism bias should be applied at 40% of the capital cost and 1% per annum for the

operating costs. In order to be consistent with this guidance we have also subtracted the risk elements

which are included in the construction costs sourced from Network Rail.

Optimism bias of 40% was applied to the 2010 price equivalent of the sub-total, plus Network Rail’s risk

fund of (2010 prices).

The Cost Estimate will be revised to a “Target Cost” after the GRIP4 stage. The “Target Cost” is to be

delivered by February 2017. In the meantime a sensitivity test is shown if the 40% Optimism Bias was not

required.

Table 3.18: Comparison of costs and benefits – capital cost variations

Core Scenario Optimism Bias unutilised

PV Benefits £14.377 million £14.377 million

PV Costs £7.617 million £4.462 million

Net Present Value £6.760 million £9,914 million


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Core Scenario Optimism Bias unutilised

Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89 3.22

Value for Money Medium High


This shows that the Scheme’s value for money would move into the high category in the event that

Optimism Bias was not required.

3.13 Sensitivity Tests – Fares Elasticities

TAG Unit M4 Forecasting and Uncertainty also specifies that fares elasticities, which are used in our

growth factor calculations, should be subject to sensitivity tests. Elasticities values are provided in the

Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and TAG specifies that fares elasticities from PDFH

version 4 should be used in the core demand forecast. As a sensitivity test, elasticities from PDFH version

5 should be used. The results of this test are shown Table 3.19 below.

Table 3.19: Comparison of costs and benefits – fare elasticity variations

Core Scenario

Test 6

PDFH5 elasticity

Present Value of Benefits £14.377 million

£10.405 million

Present Value of Costs £7.617 million

£9.173 million

Net Present Value £6.760 million

£1.232 million

Benefit to Cost Ratio 1.89

1.13


The figures show the impacts of using the PDFH5 fares elasticity. This results in lower demand growth,

and correspondingly lower overall benefits.

3.14 Previous Analysis

The economic results presented above do not represent a direct comparison with the Outline Business

Case. There are a number of reasons for these changes, as discussed below.

The assumptions which have been used in the core scenario have been updated. In the Full Business

Case it has been assumed that ticket prices are higher than at Maghull, with 30% abstraction rates

for drive-up demand. The assessment of the impacts on through travellers is also more accurate in the


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Full Business Case, accounting for both lost revenue and impacts on congestion as a result of passengers

transferring to road.

In the Full Business Case guidance set out in TAG Unit A5.4 has also been taken into account relating to

revenue and fares growth. In addition, assumptions on the operating costs have also been updated, with

the staff element now subject to average earnings growth throughout the 60 year period. Due to the time

lapse, the demand cap year has been moved from 2035 to 2036, resulting in an additional years’ worth of

demand growth.

3.15 Conclusions

Demand forecasts have been developed for the scheme with reference to guidance contained within

the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and the DfT’s web-based Transport Analysis

Guidance (TAG). Demand forecasts predict 369,300 journeys from Maghull North in 2017, with 55%

of these journeys new-to-rail and 45% of these journeys abstracted from nearby stations.

The economic appraisal forecasts that the scheme will deliver a Present Value of Benefits of £14.377

million. The Present Value of Costs is estimated to be £7.617 million. This suggests that the scheme

will produce a benefit to cost ratio of 1.89 which represents medium value for money.

Alternate growth forecast scenarios have been run using the TEMPRO forrecasts developed for the

City Region Long Term Rail Strategy produce higher benefits. This test suggests that the scheme

will produce a benefit to cost ratio of 1.89 which represents medium value for money.

Netting out the Optimism Bias shows that the scheme could potentially produce a benefit to cost ratio

of 3.22 which represents high value for money.


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4.1 Introduction

The Financial Case concentrates on the affordability of the proposal, its funding arrangements and

technical accounting issues. The Financial Case is discussed under the following headings:

Assumptions;

Base Costs;

Land Ownership and Costs;

Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA);

Optimism Bias;

Risk and Optimism Bias;

Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk;

Preferred Funding Arrangements;

Alternative funding arrangements;

Assurance of Overspend; and

Conclusions.

This section of the report presents the funding sources and profiles of the scheme. In effect it sets out the

programme for the scheme.

4.2 Assumptions

Capital costs for the scheme have been developed by Network Rail and have been subject to a value

engineering exercise. Details of an estimate produced for the ‘core’ capital cost scenario at GRIP 3 stage

are included in Appendix M.

The operating costs have been derived from a number of sources. The Long Term Charge (LTC) has

been derived from Control Period 5 charges published on the Network Rail website. It has been assumed

that the LTC for Maghull North will be identical to that for Mitcham Eastfields, as recommended by

Merseyrail. This is a new station in the London area, which was opened in 2008 and is of a similar

specification to Maghull North, located on third-rail electrified track with footbridge and lift shafts.

Merseyrail have also provided input into the operating cost estimate. This input includes the costs of

staffing at the station. For staffing the station it has been assumed that four full-time members of staff will

be required to provide a service from first train to last train whilst also accounting for holiday and sickness

relief.

4 Financial Case


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For the purposes of this assessment it is assumed that the additional two minutes required to call at

Maghull North can be accommodated within future train diagrams and no additional units or on-train staff

will be required once new rolling stock with improved acceleration / deceleration performance is deployed.

For the first three years we have assumed that an additional unit will be required to operate services to

Maghull North. Merseyrail have confirmed that one unit can be found from operational spares – this unit

cost is therefore not included in the operating costs. We have include the staff cost associated with this,

which amounts to four drivers and four guards.

Additional operating costs which have been accounted for include:

Ticket machines;

Costs for utilities, including electricity and water;

Maintenance and minor improvement costs;

Security costs, including alarms; and

Costs associated with data links.

It is noted that these are high level costs, and will need to be refined as the project develops.

Also included in the ongoing operating costs is the Long Term Charge (LTC) levied by Network Rail. The

costs of the LTC over Control Period 5 (2014-2019) are published on the Network Rail website11. In order

to include these costs in the appraisal it has been assumed that the LTC for Maghull North will be the

same as for Mitcham Eastfields, as recommended by Merseyrail.

4.3 Base Costs

The current outline programme is funded according to a funding profile provided by Merseytravel, and this

shows that costs are profiled as follows:

2.39% of capital costs accrue in 2015/16;

6.63% of capital costs accrue in 2016/17; and

90.98% of capital costs accrue in 2017/18.

Developer contributions are assumed to accrue in 2016/17.

Table 4.1 below provides a breakdown of the costs showing the base costs and the two value engineering

options.

11 http://www.networkrail.co.uk/cp5-access-charges/cp5-long-term-charges-for-franchised-stations.xls?cd=1


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Table 4.1: Base capital costs for the scheme (2017 prices)

Base Cost

Scenario

Direct Construction Works

Indirect Construction Works

Design Team/Other

Risk

Inflation

Network Rail Fee Fund

Industry Risk Fund

TOC Costs

Total Cost to Customer

Source: Network Rail – presented in 2017 prices

This gives a total rounded base cost of .

Operating costs have been sourced from Network Rail and Merseyrail. A breakdown of the operating

costs is shown in Table 4.2 below.

Table 4.2: Base operating costs for the scheme (undiscounted, without risk and optimism bias) for first three years

£ per annum

Station Long Term Charge

Staff Cost – Train drivers

Staff Cost – Train guards

Staff Cost – Retail / Ticket Office

Ticket Machine

Ticket Vending Machine

Utilities, including electricity and water

Maintenance and Minor Improvements

BT Alarm / Monitor

Data Links

Security

Operating Cost

Source: Merseyrail, Merseytravel, Network Rail and Mott MacDonald – presented in 2014 prices

It is noted that the per annum applies for the first three years of the scheme. Once new rolling

stock is delivered additional train drivers and guards are no longer required, and the annual operating

costs falls to per annum.


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4.4 Land Ownership and Costs

The land on which the scheme is to be built is currently owned by the Homes and Community Agency

(HCA) and by Network Rail. The sites are illustrated in Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2 below.

Figure 4.1: Land currently owned by HCA (brown line), and that earmarked for the station (blue hatching)



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Figure 4.2: Land owned by Network Rail (shaded green)

Source: Network Rail

The land will be transferred from HCA ownership to Merseytravel. The preferred option is for the freehold

for the station building and car park outside of the existing Network Rail boundary to be transferred to

Merseytravel with HCA’s interest in the site protected by covenant as appropriate. A contingency plan is

for Merseytravel to be granted the site on a long lease (of around 999 years).

Under either option, Merseytravel would transfer a small portion of the land to Network Rail in order to

allow access to the station and for direct rail and station maintenance. The main area of the land, forming


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the car park, would be leased to the Train Operating Company for operation. The lease would be

managed by Merseytravel who would protect any interests in the land.

A letter in support of the scheme from the HCA has been supplied, and this details their interest in the land

and reiterates their intention to supply financial support to the scheme. This is provided at Appendix B.

4.5 Quantified Risk Assessment

A Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) has been undertaken and the top three risk components are

summarised in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3: Quantified Risk Assessment

Key Risk Component Likelihood Impact on Cost Mitigation Measures

Uncertainty over the final operating costs of the scheme

40% High

Merseytravel in discussions with Merseyrail to finalise operating costs. Various alternative operating scenarios have been identified which could be progressed to minimise operating costs / increase passenger revenue in order for revenue to cover OPEX.

Failure to incorporate Maghull North into Merseyrail Electric Ltd.’s (MEL) contract

25% High

Early discussions with MEL to formalise staffing and operational matters are ongoing. Signed variation to the concession agreement will be required.

Failure to incorporate calls at Maghull North into existing timetable.

25% High

Initial work assumes two minutes (1.5 minutes plus 30 seconds dwell time) required in each direction to call at station. Merseytravel are liaising with MEL to resolve. There are two options: either re-casting the timetable or increasing the number of train units to adhere to existing timetable. Both options are stop-gaps until new rolling stock is rolled out on Merseyrail network.

Likelihood / impact on cost

High

Medium

Low


Of the top three risks, all have levels below 50% although the impact on cost if they occurred would be

high. Mitigation measures will continue to be developed and managed as the scheme progresses in order

to manage the likelihood of the risk occurring.


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The QRA uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which takes the probability based risk register as an input and

samples in a random fashion to produce a number of iterations, and the likely costs associated with them.

The QRA suggests that in 50% of cases (p=50) the costs associated with the risk will be .

A risk workshop for the scheme was held on 19th February 2015, attended by Merseytravel officers and

Mott MacDonald. This built on the QRA work undertaken as part of the Outline Business Case through

identifying further risks and the development of mitigation measures. Each risk in the register was

assigned to a Merseytravel officer to ‘track’; although many risks are owned and influenced by outside

parties (such as Network Rail and Merseyrail) it will be the officers’ responsibility to monitor the risk and

ensure that discussions are held with the relevant organisation and at the relevant level to minimise the

possibility of the risk occurring. It is noted that the risk register produced at the workshop has formed the

input into this QRA and will be treated as a ‘live’ document which can be updated as the project

development. The risk register is included in Appendix N.

4.6 Optimism Bias

Optimism bias is defined as the historic tendency to underestimate scheme costs. Further to this TAG Unit

A5.3 Rail Appraisal provides differing rates of optimism bias according to which stage of the Network Rail

GRIP process the scheme is at. The level of optimism bias applied decreases as the project progresses

towards completion.

The Maghull North project is currently at GRIP Stage 3. As such the capital costs would attract an

optimism bias of 40% of scheme costs in accordance with TAG. The optimism bias has been applied to

the capital costs with the exception of risk funds, promoter costs, PICOP and Schedule 4 payments.

In addition, optimism bias is also applied to operating costs. This is defined in TAG Unit A5.3 Rail

Appraisal as 1% per annum – i.e. in each year 1% is added to the costs, rather than adding 1% per annum

in cumulative fashion. Adding optimism bias to operating costs results in an annual cost of per

annum (2014 prices) for the first three years, and per annum (2014 prices) thereafter.

4.7 Scheme Costs for Appraisal

In order to include the costs for the economic appraisal further price conversions are required. This is

documented in TAG Unit A4.2 Scheme Costs and includes the following elements:

Real price increases are taken account of by looking at the comparative rates of inflation for general

costs and for construction costs. This assumes that general inflation rises at 2.5% per year, whereas

construction inflation rises at 5% per year. Inflation has been accounted for within the Network Rail

costs, so this step has not been applied;

Re-basing to 2010 – capital costs for the scheme have been provided in 2017, whilst operating costs

have been provided in 2014 prices. Both have been re-based to 2010 prices using the general inflation

deflator (we have used RPI from the TAG databook) to factor down to 2010 prices;


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Discounting to 2010 using a discount rate of 3.5% for 30 years and 3% thereafter; and

Conversion to market prices using an indirect taxation correction factor of 1.190.

This method has also been applied to the operating costs. It has been assumed that a quarter of the

annual cost will be accrued in 2017, as the station will open in December (so a quarter of a year’s cost will

be accrued). Staff-related operating costs are subject to real-terms annual earnings increases, and in line

with guidance contained in TAG Unit A5.3 are not capped, and continue to grow over the 60-year appraisal

period. Non-staff related operating costs are subject to increase at the rate of RPI (as published in the

TAG databook, December 2015), capped as per demand (i.e. costs remain constant after the demand cap

year).

4.8 Preferred Funding Arrangements

The major sources of funding for the scheme will be Department for Transport’s Devolved Majors Local

Growth Fund, Combined Authority LGF funding, Merseytravel funding and Section 106 developer

contributions from the developer of the Ashworth South site adjacent to the proposed station.

The table below provides a breakdown of the funding profile for the scheme.

Table 4.4: Sources of funding for the scheme

Expenditure % Total 2014/15 2015/16 To 21 Oct 2016

Remainder 16/17

Local Growth Fund 84% £6.200,000 £0 £0 £2,300,000 £3,900,000

Merseytravel 9% £690,000 £100,000 £490,000 £100,000 £0 Section 106 from

HCA 7% £480,000 £0 £0 £480,000 £0

Total £7,370,000 £100,000 £490,000 £2,880,000 £3,900,000 Additional

allocation required Combined

Authority LGF 90% £4,500,000 Merseytravel 10% £500,000

Total £12,370,000

Station cost £13,000,000

Sunk costs £633,000

Source: Merseytravel , undiscounted

Finance would be sourced from Major Scheme funding and any Section 106 contribution from the

developer of the adjacent Ashworth Hospital site. The Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) are now

owners of the Ashworth Hospital site, and they will make a developer contribution of £480,000 towards the

cost of the station.


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4.9 Alternative Funding Arrangements

In addition to the funding sources identified above, it is noted that within the Sefton Local Plan

development of site MN2.46, mixed use housing and employment site east of Maghull is specifically tied to

developer contributions both to Maghull North railway station and the improvements to M57 Junction 1.

Policy MN3 for the strategic site east of Maghull states the following:

“The development of this site will secure the following benefits, including through the use of planning

conditions, ‘Section 106’ or other legal agreements, and a phasing/implementation plan: a) A financial

contribution to secure the provision of the new Maghull North station and associated park and ride facility.”

The scale of the financial contribution to the station is unknown at this stage. It is, however, likely to

reduce the overall burden on the preferred funding arrangements identified above.

No other alternative funding arrangements have been identified at this stage.

4.10 Assurance of expenditure

Funds spent before October 2016 Combined Authority’s’ approval are classed as sunk costs. The

Combined Authority will be asked for funds going forward. Expenditure beyond that which is identified at

Target Cost stage (end of GRIP 4) will be for Merseytravel to fund as will any additional expenditure

resulting from constrcution stage.

4.11 Conclusions

Overall capital costs of the new station at Maghull North are estimated at £13 million (2017 prices),

which includes optimism bias where applied at a rate of 40%. Merseytravel will supply 9.4% of the

funding, with 6.5% from developer contributions and the remainder sought from the major schemes

fund. Operating costs are estimated at per annum (2014 prices, including optimism bias)

for the first three years of the scheme, and per annum (2014 prices, including optimism bias)

thereafter. This accounts for additional station staff costs, as well as long term charges, running and

maintenance costs of the station.

At this stage, optimism bias rather than the QRA estimate are included in the costs.


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5.1 Introduction

The Commercial Case provides evidence on the commercial viability of the proposal and the procurement

strategy that will be used to engage the market. It presents evidence on risk allocation and transfer,

contract timescales and implementation timescales as well as details on the capability and skills of the

team delivering the project and any personnel implications arising from the proposal. The Commercial

Case is discussed under the following headings:

Output Based Specification;

Procurement Method;

Programme Implications and Risk; and

Conclusions.

5.2 Output Based Specification

The principal proposal for Maghull North is to deliver the proposed station and associated facilities as a

single package with procurement via the rail industry and Network Rail in particular. However, the

efficiency for delivery and cost will be explored further with a view to achieving the most appropriate

solution. The alternative solution being explored is for the station project to be divided into two packages,

one delivered by the rail industry (station elements) and the other delivered by Merseytravel (parking

elements). In summary, the scheme outputs are:

Station elements

Two side platforms (one Liverpool-bound and one Ormskirk-bound) each capable of accommodating 2*

3-car units (platform length to be a minimum of 120m);

2* double-sided three line ‘Next Train Indicator’ CIS on gallows (one on each platform);

LED lighting to each platform, throughout the station, parking area and the station approach sections of

the station leases;

Raise and lower lighting columns throughout;

Long Line Public Address (LLPA) on both platforms and throughout station;

CCTV on each platform and throughout station;

2* Help Point (Information and Emergency) with signs (one on each platform);

2* Macemain Shelter or similar with seating (one on each platform);

Minimum of 12 seats (external) on each platform (minimum of 24 in total);

6* station nameplates on each platform (12 in total);

Sufficient way finding on each platform, giving equal prominence to stepped and step-free routes;

5 Commercial Case


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1* 16-person single door lift (180° turn) between platform and footbridge on each platform, to be

located at the Liverpool-end due to platform width (two in total);

Appropriate CCTV, communications and assistance associated with lift operation on each platform (two

in total);

Uncovered steps from each platform to the footbridge, with associated tactile paving, double handrails

in contrasting colour;

Uncovered footbridge between the two lift towers and adjacent steps from the platforms;

Uncovered footbridge span between Liverpool-bound lift tower and steps and exit from station building

to over sail the side of the cutting

One station building of simple design comprising the following:

– Power operated passenger doors with Passive Infrared Sensor (PIR) for hands-free operation

– Enclosed heated passenger waiting and seating area

– Single passenger ticket office window with raise and lower or multi-height counter

– Summary Customer Information Screen (CIS) in booking hall

– Enclosed adapted passenger toilet with associated door locking and security features and vandal

resistant / sustainable washing facilities

– Staff-side ticket office facilities as appropriate

– Back of house staff facilities, including cash room, mess room, toilet and other welfare facilities as

appropriate for the size of station

– Eco sustainable equipment and facilities as appropriate

Poster frames throughout the station to satisfy ATOC station zoning requirements for inward and

onward travel information, rail industry and other publicity;

Station welcome sign and totems;

Litter bins and associated welfare / pleasant environment facilities including potential for station

adoption group; and

Work with British Transport Police to ensure scheme achieves Secure Station accreditation.

Construction of the parking area

Staff parking and kiss-and-ride pick-up/drop-off area;

Free car park for 156 vehicles with sustainable drainage;

Compliant provision of blue-badge car parking bays;

Passive provision for two electric charging points to service four parking bays;

Motorcycle parking provision to an agreed level;


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Secure cycle parking cages / racks and freely available cycle parking racks;

Parking area signs to suit efficient operation of that area; and

Bus stops on public highway subject to agreement with Sefton Council.

5.3 Procurement Method

The methodology currently assumes that the station will be procured as a single package under the

management of Merseytravel. This will be delivered by Network Rail under their procurement rules.

However, in order to investigate cost savings, consideration is currently being given to split the project into

two packages. Various alternatives are being considered and this is developing through ongoing

discussions with Network Rail. Under this phasing of the project the first element (construction of the new

station) would be progressed under Network Rail procurement rules, whilst the second element (provision

of the parking area) would be progressed under Merseytravel procurement rules.

The preferred procurement method is presented assuming that the scheme is progressed as a single

package. However, an alternative procurement method is available using Merseytravel’s procurement

rules. At this stage the preferred approach is for Network Rail to deliver the whole scheme. If significant

cost savings can be identified, then splitting the scheme into more than one package may be an option.

5.3.1 Preferred Procurement Method

Network Rail is accountable for the operation, maintenance and renewal of railway assets. It has a

significant interest in any improvements to the network. There are certain services that only Network Rail

can supply – so called non-contestable services. These include protecting the railway network and its

operations, information provision, safety management, consents and access to the network. There are two

possible roles for Network Rail to take. These are:

Network Rail commissioned directly to deliver the scheme; and

Promoter to deliver the scheme with Network Rail offering an Asset Protection (ASPRO) role.

In the first scenario Network Rail works to developing a deliverable and standards-compliant design in

collaboration with the promoter. They then oversee construction prior to handing over the asset to the

selected operator. The Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) identifies that Network Rail will in many cases act

as the delivery agent, and it will take on risks that it is best placed to manage. These include the design

and construction risks.

The second scenario involves Network Rail working closely with the promoter to agree works in principle

before commencing on detailed design. Network Rail would approve plans in a two tiered process and

offer guidance on technical issues and interaction with other railway schemes in the locality. Under this

scenario any costs to Network Rail relating to asset protection are charged back to the developer through

mechanisms detailed in the ASPRO contract. Under this scenario the third party can seek prices from

suppliers for contestable services, which include design and delivery of the scheme.


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Network Rail have developed, and ORR have approved, four template contracts which are suitable for

project values of below £50 million. These are designed to “offer a fair balance of risk” between the

promoter (in this case Merseytravel) and Network Rail. The four types of contract are defined by the ORR

as follows:

Basic Services Agreement: simple agreements to cover pre-feasibility works to scope the scheme

and develop a business case;

Development Services Agreement: for development and design work undertaken by Network Rail on

behalf of the promoter;

Implementation Agreement: with Network Rail acting as construction manager, this is an agreement

for enhancement works on or about the controlled railway infrastructure to provide detailed design and

implementation of the promoter’s scheme with the contracting strategy agreed between Network Rail

and the promoter; and

Asset Protection Agreement: an agreement for promoter led woks on the controlled railway

infrastructure, where Network Rail facilitates the promoter’s enhancement scheme interface with the

operations, maintenance and renewals business.

The latter of these three contracts are relevant to the Maghull North project.

Discussions have taken place between Network Rail and Merseytravel regarding the option of adopting a

design and build approach to the scheme. This would provide optimum early engagement with the

specialist contractors and mitigate the limited scheme delivery timeframe. Merseytravel and Network Rail

intend to sign a Development Services Agreement and an Implementation Agreement will be signed at a

later date related to delivery of the works.

Network Rail has awarded nine framework agreements to a total of six different suppliers to cover

enhancements on the London North Western and East Midlands routes over the next five years. This

includes separate frameworks for railway engineering, civil engineering and buildings12. The fully open and

competitive framework was procured according to OJEU utility procurement rules. The construction of the

scheme will be undertaken by contractors appointed under the relevant framework. It is understood that

Network Rail’s contractor for the scheme will be Buckingham Group Contracting Ltd. The contracts have

been awarded as part of Network Rail’s new procurement and contracting strategy, which aims to improve

safety, cost-efficiency and delivery performance, and these contracts will be subject to key performance

indicators.

5.3.2 Alternative Procurement Method

As a rail scheme, the works relating to the new station are governed by Network Rail and their

procurement rules. As stated above, unless significant cost savings can be identified from packaging the

scheme, the preferred methodology is for Network Rail to deliver the whole scheme. However, there is

potential for the car park element of the scheme to be delivered by Merseytravel.

12 http://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/News-Releases/Network-Rail-agrees-renewal-and-enhancement-contracts-in-a-1-6bn-framework-deal-2147.aspx


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Should this scheme phasing be pursued, then the Merseytravel Constitution dated March 2014 outlines the

procedures which must be followed as part of the procurement process. This specifies that, where

appropriate, services should make use of existing arrangements including:

In-house services;

Existing Framework Agreements;

Existing Select Lists or Register of Bus Operators; and

Established Corporate Contracts.

A formal risk assessment would be required prior to starting the procurement process, which would be

continually reviewed as the process progressed. This would involve consultation with the Head of

Procurement in order to identify where use could be made of the existing arrangements highlighted above.

An outline design would be undertaken using in-house expertise within Merseytravel. Consultants to

undertake detailed design would be appointed by Merseytravel by competitive ‘mini-competition’ tender via

the appropriate procurement framework. The implementation phase to appoint a contractor would again

be through a process of competitive tendering. The appointment of consultants and contractors would be

subject to Merseytravel’s approval process.

Within Merseytravel the Director of Resources and the Head of Legal and Democratic Services are

responsible for ensuring contacts accord with their Procurement Procedure Rules and Regulations. As

part of any contract, the following would be specified:

The works, goods or services to be undertaken;

Details of prices to be paid, including a statement of discounts or other reductions;

The period or times within which the contract is to be performed and, where appropriate, the amount of

liquidated damages that may otherwise become due; and

The conditions of contract which are applicable.

As part of the process the Head of Legal and Democratic Services would be consulted to establish whether

liquidated damages, performance bonds, or other performance security are appropriate to include in the

written contracts. Variations in the contract relating to the following are subject to approval from Head of

Service, Director of Resources and Head of Legal and Democratic Services:

Extensions of time;

Waiver and liquidated damages;

Cost increases;

Material variation of specification; and

Any contract termination.


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The consultant would be appointed using an ACE Conditions of Engagement Agreement 113, which is an

industry standard contract for appointing a designer where the client (Merseytravel) intends to engage

contractors for construction of the scheme. The Schedule of Services Part G14 will also apply. The brief

will be outlined in the contract, but the following requirements as contained in Part G will also apply,

requiring the designer to:

Advise on the limitation of site, including contamination;

Advise of any access limitations;

Advise on extent of public services and utilities, such as sewage, electricity and telecommunications’

Comment on any restrictions relating to the scheme design;

Prepare a desk study and if agree undertake a full site investigations; and

Obtain appropriate information from the client so as to undertake service specified in the contract.

The contractor would be appointed using a NEC3 Option B (measured contract), as recommended by the

Office of Government Commerce (OGC). This type of contract includes six possible payment

mechanisms, which transfer varying degree of risk to the contractor. Within the contract a range of

standard compensation events are specified, whilst performance incentives such as bonus for early

completion and damages for delay and poor performance can also be included.

The use of the NEC3 contract provides for a robust risk management process which ensures that

construction risks are raised at the earliest opportunity and dealt with expeditiously thus optimising key

project targets such as expenditure of project funds and impact of the project on the public. During the

contract formulation stage a thorough and detailed examination of risks are interpreted into a contract risk

register, which transfers the ownership of each risk to either the Employer or the Contractor on the basis of

which party is best placed to deal with the risk, should it arise.

5.3.3 Contract Management

For both the design and development phase of the work Merseytravel will enter into a Development

Services Agreement (DSA) with Network Rail utilising the ORR approved template with scheme specific

details (including services to be provided). Network Rail will identify and appoint, from their competitively

procured framework, the appropriate design team. The draft DSA was issued by Network Rail to

Merseytravel’s Executive in January 2014 for initial consideration and signing in due course.

As part of the contract to be signed by Network Rail and Merseytravel, a Development Programme will be

developed. This will include GRIP stage gate reviews for feasibility and design optioneering. As part of

the agreement both Network Rail and Merseytravel have identified representatives who can act on their

13 http://agreements.acenet.co.uk/Documents/Agreements/2b65295a_07fc_43a3_a3ad_e0f0570125e3.pdf

14 http://agreements.acenet.co.uk/Documents/Agreements/b0b93902_1601_4d2f_8fd3_24037221daeb.pdf


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behalf in relation to the agreement. Network Rail’s representative is named as Jackie Miller, and

Merseytravel’s representative is named as Mark Cleave.

Under the contract Network Rail will deliver approved single option designs for the station together with

refined costs and programme for completing the project at GRIP stages 4-8. To this end it is estimated

that the project will be completed to GRIP3 level by October 2015.

For the implementation phase of the work Merseytravel will enter into an Implementation Agreement with

Network Rail who will then identify the appropriate contractor from their competitively procured framework.

It is understood that Buckingham Group Contracting Ltd will be Network Rail’s contractors for the scheme,

under contracts that have been awarded as part of Network Rail’s new procurement and contracting

strategy.

Buckingham Group Contracting Ltd will be involved under the Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) process,

and they will be responsible for engaging the design team. Incentives are written into Buckingham’s

contract under the ECI process in order to deliver the outputs early and under budget.

Anticipated contract timescales and lengths are shown in Table 5.1 below.

Table 5.1: Contract timescales and lengths


5.4 Programme Implications and Risk

5.4.1 Network Rail Risk Fund

Network Rail funds only cover costs and risks which are outlined at each strategic review. Its costs and

risks associated with third party funded schemes are not covered. Risk funds have been developed to pay

for these elements, as follows:


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Network Rail Fee Fund (NRFF): covers the potential liabilities arising from the template agreements;

and

Industry Risk Fund (IRF): covers low probability, high impact industry risks such as operational

emergencies on the network.

These funds are contributed through a percentage of scheme costs, which are defined within the template

agreements. As part of the Design Services Agreement, Network Rail will be liable for any additional costs

incurred by Merseytravel as a result of any delay or disruption to the Development Programme. Both of

these costs have been included in the capital cost element of the scheme.

5.4.2 Planning Risk

Discussions have been held with Sefton Council relating to the transfer of land from the HCA to

Merseytravel for construction of the car park and station, and the anticipated Section 106 developer

contribution. Sefton Council granted outline permission for housing on the adjacent land owned by HCA in

September 2014, and will be responsible for granting planning permission for the station and car park.

It is envisaged that the station will be classified as a major project by Sefton Council and that a planning

application for such a scheme typically takes 13 weeks for the planning authority to process. In order to

limit risk to programme slippage we have allowed up to 16 weeks in the programme between submission

and obtaining of planning permission. The proposed timescales are shown in Table 5.2 below.

Table 5.2: Dates for obtaining planning permission

Element Date

Submit planning application September 2016

Full planning permission received January 2017


Should planning permission not be granted in a timely manner, it has the potential to delay the subsequent

construction periods.

5.4.3 Programme Implication

The scheme will be built upon land within either Network Rail’s or Merseytravel’s ownership. Upon

completion of the works, sign-off / hand-back to Network Rail will take place. No liability for the provisions

of the rail related elements of the scheme will remain with Merseytravel following hand-back to Network

Rail.

The parts of the scheme on rail owned land will pass into the ownership of Network Rail. A process will

need to be followed to include the station within the Network Rail Regulatory Asset Base with revisions to

documentation as necessary. This will involve Network Rail as rail asset manager, Merseytravel as

Concession manager, and Merseyrail as Station Facility Owner.


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The station charge will reflect what is included in the station lease area and the assets contained within it.

The Annexes to the Station Lease will identify the maintenance, repair and renewal responsibilities

(Network Rail and Station Facility Owner) for the assets introduced and the bearer of associated costs.

All scheme related elements on Merseytravel owner land (the parking area) will remain in Merseytravel

ownership and will be leased to the Train Operating Company (Merseyrail) for operation and maintenance.

Light repair and maintenance liabilities would pass to Merseyrail. This would be undertaken under a sub-

lease from Merseytravel which would protect the various interests in the site through Merseytravel’s

management of the lease.

Before completion of the scheme a robust cleaning and heavy maintenance regime will have been

identified and agreed with Merseytravel’s Asset Management section. Upon completion of the scheme

Merseytravel’s internal client department and Asset Management department management will sign-off the

scheme. Heavy maintenance and repair responsibility will then pass to Asset Management, with

associated costs borne by Merseytravel.

5.5 Conclusions

The scheme will use Network Rail procurement methods, and Merseytravel are already in

discussions with Network Rail over adopting a design and build approach to the scheme. This will

initially use a Development Services Agreement between Merseytravel and Network Rail, leading on

to an Implementation Agreement in order to construct the scheme. Early discussions should help to

mitigate risk relating to the relatively tight programme.

Potential for cost savings are being investigated and consideration is currently being given to split the

project into two packages. Under this phasing of the project the construction of the new station would

be progressed under Network Rail procurement rules, whilst the provision of the parking area would

be progressed under Merseytravel procurement rules.


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6.1 Introduction

The Management Case assesses whether a project is deliverable. It tests the project planning,

governance structure, risk management, communications and stakeholder management, benefits

realisation and assurance (i.e. a Gateway Review). There should be a clear and agreed understanding of

what needs to be done, why, when and how, with measures in place to identify and manage any risks.

The Management Case sets out a plan to ensure that the benefits identified in the Economic Case are

realised and will include measures to assess and evaluate this.

The Management Case is discussed under the following headings:

Governance;

Assurance;

Delivery Programme;

Risk Management Strategy;

Communication and Stakeholder Management;

Monitoring and Evaluation; and

Conclusions.

6.2 Governance

6.2.1 Liverpool City Region Strategic Governance

An overview of the Liverpool City Region (LCR) strategic transport governance, including membership,

roles and responsibilities, is presented in Figure 6.1 and Table 6.1 below.

6 Management Case


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Figure 6.1: Liverpool City Region – Strategic Transport Governance


LCR Combined Authority

• LCR Local Authority Leaders• Elected Mayor of Liverpool• Chair of LCR LEP

Delivery Agents

• Local Authorities• Merseytravel• Other agencies

LCR LEP

LCR District Cabinets

LCR Transport Delivery Groups

• Officers from each of the LCR Local Authorities

• Merseytravel Officers• Partner representatives as appropriate

Transport Advisory Group (TAG)

• Senior Officers from each of the LCR Local Authorities

• LEP representative• DfT representative• Network Rail representative

Merseytravel Committee

• Elected Councillors from each of the LCR Local Authorities

Wider Stakeholder Group

• Public Transport operators• Highways Agency• Network Rail• Other Government Agencies• Businesses• Local interest groups• Public


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Table 6.1: Roles and Responsibilities in the Liverpool City Region

Role Responsibility

Liverpool City Region Combined Authority (LCR CA)

Combined Authority for Halton, Knowsley, Liverpool, Sefton, St Helens and Wirral

Strategic decision making for economic development, transport, strategic housing and employment and skills functions for the LCR

Merseytravel Committee

Combined Authority Committee leading on transport for the City Region. Six meetings held per year. Membership formed of elected Councillors.

Provide democratic leadership on strategic transport issues and advise the CA.

Transport Advisory Group (TAG)

Transport Advisory Group meets monthly, supporting the transport agenda at a senior officer level. Members include the Local Enterprise Partnership.

Provide technical advice and recommendations to the Merseytravel Committee.

Wider Stakeholder Group

The wider stakeholder group are a virtual group of key LCR transport stakeholders that LCR Officers and Councillors engage as appropriate.

Provide feedback to Merseytravel Committee, TAG and LCR Delivery Groups on transport policy and projects as appropriate.

LCR Delivery Groups

Various delivery groups are formed of representatives from Merseytravel and each LCR LA as well as partner organisations as appropriate.

Oversee the delivery of transport schemes and provide advice to delivery agents.

Delivery Agents LCR LAs and other Delivery Partners delivering transport schemes across the LCR.

Responsible for the delivery of any agreed transport schemes.


6.2.2 Merseytravel Governance

The proposed governance / delivery of the Maghull North scheme is presented in Figure 6.2 below.


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Figure 6.2: Merseytravel Scheme Delivery


The coordination and management of the scheme and sits with designated Rail Development Office for the

scheme, Mark Cleave. Design and development will be coordinated by Merseytravel.

As part of the development phase for the scheme a number of initial meetings have been held between

Merseytravel and Network Rail to structure the scheme and to establish the key requirements/objectives.

Merseytravel have completed a draft version of the Client Requirements Document which has been

submitted to Network Rail, and this has led on to Network Rail issuing a draft version of a Development

Services Agreement to initiate further development of the scheme and subsequent implementation. This

will be signed by Merseytravel in due course.

6.2.3 Rail Industry Governance

Investment in the rail industry is governed by Governance in Rail Investment Process (GRIP). This is

summarised as an eight-stage process as shown in Figure 6.3 below.


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Figure 6.3: Governance in Rail Investment Process (GRIP)


GRIP also requires stage gate reviews at the various stages in the process. As outlined in Network Rail’s

GRIP guidelines, the project will be subject to at least four mandatory stage gate reviews during its’

lifecycle. Two reviews have already taken place during the development phase, which has produced an

agreed single option for the scheme and agreed the project scope ahead of the award of a detailed design

and construction contract. The project will be subject to two other reviews at scheme hand-back and

project close out. Each review investigates the completeness of the products, and identifies whether it is

anticipated that the project can successfully continue.

The Office for Rail Regulation (ORR) has produced a document which details all their relevant guidance –

Investment framework consolidated policy and guidelines (ORR, October 2010), which highlights Network

Rail’s role in projects such as this. This includes facilitating, and where appropriate, delivering

improvements proposed by operators, Government or other third parties. In the case of Maghull North

Merseytravel would be classified as a third party. An overview of the process is provided is provided in

Figure 6.4 below.


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Figure 6.4: Investment process policy and guidelines

Source: ORR, Investment in framework and consolidated policy and guidelines, October 2010

Network Rail’s Investment in Stations document sets out the design and approval process which is

required from Network Rail for building a new station. This is dependent upon Network Rail’s role in the

development of the station, which is either:

Network Rail is commissioned using forms of contract in the suite approved by ORR. It works towards

designs which are compliant with standards and capable of being built. Network Rail would then

oversee construction and hand over to the selected operator; or


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Network Rail takes an asset protection role (ASPRO) and would approve plans through a two tier

process.

Change Procedure – this relates to any change to the agreement with the Train Operating Company

(TOC) for occupancy and access within the station; and

Closure – this relates to reducing or removing any part of a contracted facility. This requires formal

agreement with the Office for Rail Regulation (ORR) and the TOC.

6.2.4 Integrated Working

In order to manage the scheme four ‘working groups’ have been established at various levels to allow

effective management of and knowledge sharing within the scheme. The structure is illustrated in Figure

6.5 below.

Figure 6.5: Working group structure for Maghull North



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The various attendees and remits for the working groups are shown in Table 6.2 below.

Table 6.2: Working Groups – roles and responsibilities

Remit Attendees Frequency

Strategic Group Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail Sefton Council

4 weekly

Partner Stakeholder Group

Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail Sefton Council Homes & Communities Agency Persimmon Homes

4 weekly

Project Delivery Group

Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail

4 weekly

Design Review Meeting

Review and agree emerging designs

Ensure compliance with Railway Group Standards

Ensure compliance with SFO operational requirements

Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail Buckingham Group Opus Other sub-consultants

2 weekly

Land & Property Meeting

Arrange transfer of land from HCA to Merseytravel

Acquire licences to enter land for surveys before transfer is complete

Identify and close out risks and covenants relating to the land transfer from HCA

Ensure timely transfer from HCA

Arrange transfer from Merseytravel to Network Rail and Merseyrail

Merseytravel Network Rail

4 weekly approx

Regulatory Meeting

Carry out regulatory processes to ensure that the station becomes operational and complies with ORR requirements

Merseytravel Network Rail Merseyrail

As required at present. Likely to become 4 weekly in due course

Timetabling Meeting

Remodel timetable to allow for additioinal stop at Maghull North

Take new timetable through the Network Rail timetabling process

Ensure compatibility with other timetable changes, especially the December 2017 changes in the North West area

Merseytravel Merseyrail Network Rail

As required at present. Likely to become 4 weekly in due course

Merseytravel Internal Working Group

Merseytravel: Rail Finance Legal Asset Management Planning

4 weekly



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A Project Delivery Group has been established. Chaired by Merseytravel this is attended by Network Rail

and Merseyrail and will provide direct management of the scheme and helps to provide the required liaison

with the Stakeholder Group. The Stakeholder Group will report up to the Steering Group attended by

senior stakeholder representatives. It is not anticipated that all members of the Stakeholder Group will

need to attend each meeting, for example, the Highways Agency and HCA are only likely to attend to aid

programming and consider interactions with their nearby projects and developments. Network Rail,

Merseytravel and Merseyrail have each already established internal groups to discuss technical aspects of

the scheme.

6.3 Assurance

6.3.1 Timescales

The key programme milestones for the project in the GRIP (Governance for Rail Investment Projects)

stages are set out in Table 6.3 below.

Table 6.3: Key Programme Milestones – Maghull North


Figure 6.6 shows the stages that the project will pass through in relation to the GRIP stages; it includes the

various actions to be taken at the end of each stage gate review.


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Figure 6.6: GRIP and business case programme



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6.3.2 Approvals

A range of different approvals will be required in relation to the scheme including the following:

All activities undertaken by Merseytravel are governed by the Constitution under which it operates. For

financial activity, for entering into the requisite agreements with Network Rail approval will be required

from Merseytravel or for activity less than £100,000 through the Delegated Decision approvals process;

Network Rail will be required to apply for their own internal approvals to allow the third party investment

to take place and the necessary Agreements to be drawn up and entered into;

Stage Gate reviews are conducted following completion of each GRIP stage to ensure the scheme can

be continued, with the following dates anticipated:

– GRIP3 (option selection) – June 2016

– GRIP4 (single option) – February 2016

– GRIP5 (detailed design) – December 2017

Planning Approval will be required for the scheme, with approval date anticipated for January 2017;

Traffic Regulation Orders may be required for certain highway elements of the scheme (i.e. on the

approach roads); and

Relevant licences from utilities (e.g. discharge licence from United Utilities).

6.3.3 Operating New Stations

Network Rail’s Investment in Stations document sets out a number of issues which need to be addressed

when considering new stations. These are:

Commitment from the train operator to call at the station and provide access to revenue and ticketing

arrangements;

Incorporation into the safety regime provided by the Railways and Other Guided Transport Systems

(Safety) Regulations 2006;

Inclusion of the station within regulated access arrangements, permitting its use by other train

operators;

Provision of a licensed Station Facility Owner (SFO) to operate the station;

The creation of a property interest in the station, giving the operator the right to manage the station and

deal with station access arrangements; and

The position regarding responsibilities of ownership.

The proposed resolution of these issues is summarised in Table 6.4 below.


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Table 6.4: Resolution of issues relating to operating a new station

Issue Resolution

Contractual commitment from the train operator to call at the station

Discussions with Merseyrail and amend Merseyrail concession agreement to include new station.

Discussions and agreement with Merseyrail relating to timetable change to allow services to call at station.

Incorporation into the safety regime provided by the Railways and Other Guided Transport Systems (Safety) Regulations 2006

Safety authorisation will be required from Office of Rail Regulation.

Inclusion of the station within regulated access arrangements

Discussions with Office of Rail Regulation required.

Provision of a licenced Station Facility Owner (SFO) SFO identified as Merseyrail. Discussions with Office of Rail Regulation and possibly Department for Transport will be required.

Property Interest Station lease between Network Rail and the SFO to be drawn up and signed.

Responsibilities of Ownership Detailing the responsibilities of maintenance, to be dealt with in the station agreement.


6.4 Delivery Programme

Design and delivery of the scheme is to be through Network Rail and appropriate consultants/contractors

identified and appointed by them. Development and delivery of the scheme will accord with the

requirements of the appropriate stages of GRIP (Guide to Railway Investment Process).

6.4.1 Design Stage

The design stage for the rail related elements will include:

Review of work previously undertaken on behalf of Merseytravel in 2010. Design will commence upon

verification of preferred option;

Liaison with all internal disciplines to gain understanding of their requirements from the scheme, ensure

their buy in to scheme deliverables and efficient hand-back and on-going maintenance upon

completion of scheme;

Outline and detailed design in accordance with all relevant Network Rail Group Standards, and

complying with DfT Code of Practice for Accessible Train Station Design for Disabled People and

client requirements;

Undertaking of all relevant surveys;

Obtaining of all related internal design approvals;

Obtaining of all relevant planning approvals as applicable;

Promotion and undertaking of related Station Agreement;


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Issue of Approved for Construction drawings and liaison with contractor (and their sub-contractors)

during implementation.

6.4.2 Implementation Stage

The implementation stage for the scheme will include:

Implementation of designed scheme;

Co-ordination with contractor/s delivering other phases of the scheme;

Adherence to agreed phasing plan;

Discharge of any related Planning Approval conditions;

Obtaining all necessary possessions / isolations;

Implementation of scheme in a safe and efficient manner minimizing disruption to users of the station

and the station’s neighbours; and

Successful sign-off / hand-back of scheme to relevant Route Asset Stewards and the identified Station

Facilities Operator (SFO).

6.4.3 Scheme Exit Strategy

An exit strategy will be initiated that reflects the approach being adopted for the design and delivery of the

scheme including the following key elements.

The station will be upon land within Network Rail’s ownership and within the identified Station Lease area

of the Station Facility Operator (SFO). Upon completion of the works sign-off / hand back to Network Rail

will take place. No liability for the provisions of the scheme will remain with Merseytravel following hand-

back to Network Rail. In principle, the provisions of the scheme on rail owned land will pass into the

ownership of Network Rail. The station agreement will reflect the Station Lease area and the assets within

it consequent to the scheme. The Annexes to the Station Lease will identify the maintenance, repair and

renewal responsibilities (Network Rail / SFO) for the new assets and the bearer of associated costs. Risk

Management Strategy

The station car park will be located on Merseytravel owned land and will be leased to the Train Operating

Company (Merseyrail). The maintenance, repair and renewal liability for the car park will be accepted by

Merseyrail once the scheme is approved by the Combined Authority.

6.5 Risk Management Strategy

The production of a risk register forms an integral task associated with standard project management

procedures that are conducted by either Merseytravel or Network Rail. The risk register for the scheme

will be reviewed regularly throughout the detailed design, procurement, construction and also post-


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construction phases of the scheme as a standard item to be addressed by the Project Delivery Group. Any

unresolved or significant issues or problems which are identified or that occur will be escalated through the

appropriate governance procedures that are now in place.

6.5.1 Risk Assessment

The risk register captures high level risks and any issues identified for the different scheme elements

during development and implementation. A risk and issues workshop was held on 19 February 2015.

This has helped to update the identified risks, identify any appropriate mitigation measures and allocate the

risks to the appropriate Officer within Merseytravel to track during the course of the project. The results of

this are discussed below.

Further details on the Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) undertaken for the scheme are included in

Section 4.5 where key risk components have been identified together with likelihood, impact on cost and

also anticipated mitigation measures to address the risks. A summary of the top three risks that have been

identified for the scheme are set out in Table 6.5 below, and full details in Appendix N.

Table 6.5: Summary of key risks

Risk Event Consequences Mitigation Probability Impact

Uncertainty over the final operating costs of the scheme

Undermines the business case, revenue doesn’t cover operating costs and station requires subsidy.

Merseytravel in discussions with Merseyrail to finalise operating costs. Various alternative operating scenarios have been identified which could be progressed to minimise operating costs / increase passenger revenue in order for revenue to cover operating costs.

40% High

Failure to incorporate Maghull North into Merseyrail Electric Ltd.’s (MEL) contract.

Station is built but is not transferred to MEL, leaving Merseytravel with ongoing maintenance / operating costs.

Early discussions with MEL to formalise staffing and operational matters are ongoing. Signed variation to the concession agreement will be required.

25% High

Failure to incorporate calls at Maghull North into existing timetable.

Station is built but no train services call at the station.

Initial work assumes two minute required in each direction to call at station. Merseytravel are liaising with MEL to resolve. There are two options; either re-casting the timetable or increasing the number of train units to adhere to existing timetable. Both options are stop-gaps until new rolling stock is rolled out on Merseyrail network.

25% High



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As part of the risk workshop the full list of risks were reviewed and updated as appropriate. Each risk was

assigned to the organisation best placed to manage that risk (and this is replicated in the transfer of risk in

the various contracts for the scheme). In addition, for each risk a Merseytravel officer has been identified

and these staff will be responsible firstly for tracking that risk throughout the course of the scheme and

secondly for liaising with partners as appropriate in order that appropriate mitigation measures can be

adopted to minimise the chance of the risk occurring.

The working groups which have been constituted provide opportunities to discuss project risks at the

appropriate level. Ultimate responsibility for risk resolution will be dealt with by the Steering Group,

although risk will be dealt with at the appropriate level – either Project Delivery Group, Stakeholder Group

or Steering Group.

6.5.2 Evidence of Delivery of Similar Projects

A number of projects relating to improved access and expanded car parking facilities have recently been

undertaken on Merseyside. The most recent new railway stations on Merseyside were opened at

Liverpool South Parkway (2006), Lea Green, Wavertree Technology Park (both 2000), Brunswick and

Conway Park (both 1998). These projects are summarised in Table 6.6, with selected projects discussed

in more detail below.

Table 6.6: Recent projects delivered by Merseytravel

Scheme Date Elements

Birkenhead North 2012-14 Accessibility enhancements and new car park at an existing station.

Liverpool Central 2012 Accessibility and refurbishment of an existing station.

Liverpool South Parkway 2006 New four platform station, with bus interchange and car park, to replace nearby Garston and Allerton stations

Lea Green 2000 New two platform station, with car park and bus interchange, between St Helens Junction and Rainhill on the City Line.

Wavertree Technology Park 2000 New two platform station between Edge Hill and Broad Green on the Liverpool-Manchester/Preston line.

Brunswick 1998 New two platform station between Liverpool Central and St Michaels on the Northern Line.

Conway Park 1998 New two-platform sub-surface station, between Birkenhead Park and Hamilton Square on the Wirral Lines.


Birkenhead North

Merseytravel managed the delivery of improved access arrangements and a park and ride facility at

Birkenhead North in two phases. The first phase of the works provided a 274 space car park with

dedicated Blue Badge spaces, lighting and CCTV coverage. This was delivered between August and

December 2012. The second phase of the works, valued at £2.75 million, was undertaken jointly with


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Merseyrail and Network Rail to deliver the project over an eight month period, commencing in September

2013 and opening on time in April 2014. The scheme comprised the following:

Removal of existing station footbridge and provision of a temporary structure during the works;

Construction of two new lift shafts, including one on a narrow island platform; and

Construction of two new bridge sections to span across four operational railway lines.

The scheme overcame a number of challenges during delivery, including variable ground conditions, the

need to maintain the operation of the station, and the requirement to undertake major work elements

during night time closures of the railway.

Although this scheme is of a smaller scale than that proposed at Maghull North, it does show Merseytravel,

Merseyrail and Network Rail collaborating closely to deliver a project on time and to budget. It also

provides evidence of a phased project having been delivered, should the project at Maghull North be

delivered in a similar manner.

Liverpool Central

Merseytravel were involved in a joint project with Network Rail and Merseyrail managing the delivery of

improvements to the concourse at Liverpool Central. Works were jointly funded by Merseytravel and the

European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). Merseytravel were responsible for day-to-day liaison with

the Project Managers and Contractor to ensure continuity of delivery in line with the design requirements

whilst also ensuring works remained on time and on budget.

The scheme included the following elements:

Provision of enlarged concourse areas and integration of lift access into the concourse area;

Improved passenger flow, through changes to the ticket gate lines;

Creation of new passenger waiting areas;

Improved lighting and CCTV coverage; and

Refurbishment of floor, wall and ceiling finishes.

The scheme at Liverpool Central was split into two distinct areas, with one part of the project dealing with

the surface level station concourse and one part dealing with the sub-surface station platforms.

Merseytravel were responsible for the concourse works whilst Network Rail were responsible for works at

the platform level. The project demonstrates that Network Rail and Merseytravel have previously worked

in close collaboration to deliver a high profile project, with the refurbished station winning several awards,

including Station of the Year at the National Rail Awards in 201315.

15 http://www.merseytravel.gov.uk/about-us/media-centre/news/Pages/Liverpool-Central-Station-scoops-second-award-in-a-month.aspx


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Lea Green

Lea Green offers an example of a station of a similar scope to Maghull North. It included:

Two fully accessible platforms with pedestrian bridge connected by ramps;

Simple waiting shelters on both platforms;

Ticket office staffed from first to last train;

200 space car park; and

Simple bus interchange, with bus shelters.

The scheme costs amounted to £2.4 million, with over 50% of the costs contributed by Merseytravel. The

scheme provides a fully accessible station to a population (as at 2000) of 9,000, projected to double

following the completion of local housing developments. This is a similar situation to that at Maghull North,

with the station designed to serve large scale housing development.

The completion of the scheme suggests that Merseytravel have experience of delivering stations of a

similar scale to that at Maghull North. Currently station footfall estimates from the ORR suggest demand of

0.394 million at Lea Green for 2014/15, which shows sustained growth from its opening in 2000.

Wavertree Technology Park

Wavertree Technology Park is a new station on the Liverpool-Manchester via Earlestown route and was

built at a similar time to Lea Green. It included:

Two fully accessible platforms with pedestrian bridge;

Lifts and stepped access from the platforms to the bridge;

Simple waiting shelters on both platforms;

Ticket office staffed from first to last train; and

Opportunities to interchange with local bus services.

The scheme costs amounted to £3 million, with over 60% of the costs contributed by Merseytravel, with

remaining monies coming from an Objective One European Union funding grant. The scheme provides a

fully accessible station to a population (as at 2000) of 13,000. It also provides access to the Wavertree

Technology Park, which houses over 20 companies employing over 6,000 people.

Again, the completion of the scheme suggests that Merseytravel have experience of delivering stations of

a similar scale to that at Maghull North. Currently station footfall estimates from the ORR suggest demand

of 0.458 million at Wavertree Technology Park for 2014/15, which again shows high levels of growth from

its opening in 2000.


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6.5.3 Project Dependencies

There are a number of schemes within the local area which have varying degrees of interaction with the

scheme at Maghull North. These schemes vary from non-committed interventions on the railway network

to interventions on the local road network which have the potential to impact on mode choice in the area.

These schemes have been identified and discussed in Table 2.15. In summary, there are several road

schemes as well as a number of uncommitted rail schemes. All have the potential to impact on demand

forecasts at Maghull North, but have not been considered within the demand forecasts.

None of the schemes will impact on the delivery of Maghull North station, or have any interdependency

with the station. There may be minor impacts on project programmes (for example, not being able to bring

in construction materials from M58 Junction 1 during construction of that scheme) and this will be

monitored as the project progresses at Stakeholder Group meetings, in order to ensure that there is no

conflict with timings. It is envisaged that development of the site adjacent to the station, and

enhancements to M58 Junction 1 will be completed prior to construction of the station.

6.6 Communication and Stakeholder Management

6.6.1 Stakeholders

A number of stakeholders have been identified in relation to the scheme. The identified stakeholders are


Table 6.7: List of key stakeholders

Organisation Role

Access Groups Various support groups within Sefton for those with accessibility problems.

Bus Operators Current operators of bus services around Maghull area.

Department for Transport Overarching responsibility for rail strategy. Need to be aware of any proposals which impact on rail revenue, and require proposals to have a robust business case.

Highways Agency Responsible for trunk road network, including M58 junction 1 which forms the main access to School Lane from the east.

Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) Currently owns the land on which the station will be located. Adjacent land is to be developed as housing.

Liverpool City Region Combined Authority Combined authority for Merseyside and Halton with statutory responsibility to co-ordinate and promote public transport use in the area.

Maghull Town Council Parish Council for Maghull area with various responsibilities, including conveying opinions on local developments to Sefton Council.

Merseyrail Train operator running services on Liverpool-Ormskirk line. Will be Station Facility Operator (SFO) for proposed station at Maghull North.

Merseytravel Implements the Combined Authority’s policies with its own functions, duties and responsibilities.


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Organisation Role

Network Rail Owns the railway infrastructure and accountable for operation, maintenance and renewal of network assets.

Office of Rail Regulation Issues and modifies licences to operate trains and stations. Any changes to station facilities require a station change which change station access agreements and requires ORR approval.

Public / Residents Impacted by changes in traffic flows, noise and air quality resulting from new railway station.

Rail User Groups Groups representing rail users

Rail Users Will directly benefit from provision of a new railway station.

Sefton Council Local Authority for Maghull area, who will be responsible for determining Planning Application for the scheme.

West Lancashire Council Adjacent Local Authority; residents of local authority are likely to benefit from new station, through rail heading to Maghull North.


6.6.2 Consultation

A public information event was held in November 2015, which included a leaflet drop of approximately

5,000 households in the local area and a drop-in session. This was held on the afternoon of 24 November

at Maghull Town Hall. Figure 6.7 shows the leaflet distributed in the local area.

Figure 6.7: Information distributed to local residents


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Prior to the formal consulation event various comments and statements have been made by local

councillors and the Sefton Central MP, Bill Esterson, related to the scheme. These are reproduced in

Table 6.8 below.

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Table 6.8: Comments relating to existing transport problems and the proposed station at Maghull North

Source Comments Date

Merseytravel Press Release on the Long Term Rail Strategy which includes Maghull North

Councillor Liam Robinson: “This is real ‘big picture’ thinking by the Liverpool City Region. Such strategies are not traditionally driven by local bodies. Doing it this way, working with Network Rail, ensures that our transport planning is intrinsically linked to our economic planning…The rail strategy is about coordination and building on our successes…it is about ensuring that the rail connections we have within our city region link seamless ly with those beyond, not only to what we would consider the untapped potential of local catchment areas… ”

August 2014

Labour Press Release,

Website of Bill Esterson MP

Bill Esterson MP “This is great news for the campaign and for the whole of East Sefton. Cllr Liam Robinson’s commitment to the new Maghull North railway station is testament to the hard work of the Maghull & Lydiate Labour Action Teams who have been campaigning hard for this new station for many years”.

Councillor Patrick McKinley “This was part of a successful bid to improve transport infrastructure in the North West which is something we desperately need in our region. We are very pleased to see that the £6.1m bid has been successful. Investment is just what we need to boost our local economy and create the jobs that are needed. And anything which improves transport networks in Maghull is most welcome particularly in the east side of Maghull where public transport is in need of improvement”.

Councillor Lynn Gatherer “This is great news…Lots of people in this part of Maghull tell me that we need this sort of infrastructure improvement here”.

John Sayers – Maghull Labour Action Team “Of course this is good news for Maghull. I’m lucky enough to live close enough to our existing station to be able to walk there, but for people living along Park Lane or throughout the east of Maghull then they’ve got a bit of a hike. For those lucky enough to have a car, then more often than not, there are no parking spaces left at Maghull. A new station will bring new parking spaces and will hopefully alleviate the problem. It’s good news all around”.

July 2014

Liverpool Echo Councillor Tony Robertson “We all want the station to be built – that’s quite important to the local community” July 2014

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Knowsley Chamber of Commerce Website (report on LCR Growth Deal)

David Cameron PM “Growth Deals are a crucial part of our long-term plan to secure Britain’s future. For too long our economy has been too London-focussed and too centralised. Growth Deals will help change all that. They are about firing up our great towns and cities, boosting local economies and driving growth across the country. This historic deal means real change for Liverpool, including major investment in transport to help people to get to work and back business…By trusting local people, backing business and investing in infrastructure, skills and housing, we can create thousands of new jobs. And that means more economic security, peace of mind and a brighter future for hardworking people in Liverpool.”

Nick Clegg Deputy PM “The Liverpool Growth Deal will create thousands of jobs, provide incredible new training opportunities for young people, build new homes and improve transport links across the region for people and their families; building a stronger economy and a fairer society. We’re placing the power and money in the hands of the people in Liverpool who know how to spend it best, making a real difference to local communities”.

Robert Hough, Liverpool City Region LEP chairman “Both the public and private sector identified what was needed for the City Region to accelerate economic growth and create new jobs. The £230 million awarded to us will not only create jobs and stimulate the economy in the short term, but with improved infrastructure, the City Region will be better positioned to attract investment and ensure long-term growth and prosperity. This announcement clearly shows that the Government has recognised that our work and structures here provide the capacity to unlock the region’s potential as an economic powerhouse”.

Joe Anderson, Mayor of Liverpool “This is great news for Liverpool and means we can build further on the recent transformation of the City Centre. The £52 million commitment to these schemes will enable us to push-on with the next phase of our investment strategy”.

Councillor Phil Davies, Chair of LCR Combined Authority “This announcement is great news for our City Region. As a City Region we have clearly demonstrated that the public sector and private sector can work together to identify priorities for investment. The announcement also shows that our governance structure as a City Region is working and that by focussing on the strategic projects within the Growth Deal we can bring widespread economic benefit to the whole of the City Region”.

July 2014

Liverpool Echo

Councillor Liam Robinson, chair of Merseytravel, met with Bill Esterson MP and the Maghull and Lydiate Labour Action Team at the site of the proposed Maghull North station

Councillor Liam Robinson “There is a strong case for Maghull North Station with the benefits it brings to rail passengers and this community. Merseytravel fully understand the local demand for it”

Bill Esterson MP “Our site visit at the location where the new Maghull North station would be located was very positive”

June 2014

Merseytravel Press Release on the Long Term Rail Strategy which includes Maghull North

Councillor Liam Robinson: “This is about thinking big and being co-ordinated in the way we grow and develop the rail network, so we can ensure we are properly focussed on supporting the growth of the Liverpool City Region economy, not purely for our benefit but as our overall contribution to the UK economy…It’s essential that we consider how projects work together to improve connectivity and capacity, rather than delivering piecemeal projects in isolation”

May 2014

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HCA Press Release on Ashworth planning application

The site has huge potential to create a well-planned residential development, providing:

– Around 370 new homes, including affordable housing

– Car parking to support a new railway station ‘Maghull North’ to access the development and connect into the wider area, ensuring delivery of a key transport objective

– Protection and enhancement of the site’s landscape, environment and ecology

May 2014

Labour Press Release,

Website of Bill Esterson MP

Plans for 250 houses on Ashworth South site renew calls for Maghull North railway station

Councillor Patrick McKinley

– “these plans are at an early stage, but if given the go ahead, it would strengthen the call for a new train station”

– “Hundreds of people signed our petition calling for the new station for Maghull and that was before any plans for these new houses. The need for a new station would be even greater if this housing scheme was given the green light”

– “But I do know that the people of Maghull would like another train station

– “This station was called for long before the prison was ever mooted”

– “There is still a very real need for this station in Maghull and there is very real demand from the people who live in the northern part of the town”

Undated

Maghull Town Council, Survey on Resident’s Views of Option 2 of The Local Plan for Sefton

71% of residents suggest that transport improvements are needed

Transport improvements are needed but not at the price for large scale development Undated, circa July-September 2013

Champion, Sefton and West Lancashire’s online news service

Second station at Maghull subject to a recent petition in support of it

Bill Esterson MP “it is something which is wanted by people in that part of the community who have complained to me that they feel isolated from the rest of the town. I will be working with the community to call on the Government to grant funding for the new train station”

Councillor Tony Robertson “If we don’t keep pressing and fighting we’ll never get it [new station]…but we must not give up on it for the sake of anyone who lives near the existing station”

December 2010

Source: Various


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The Planning Application for housing on the Ashworth Hospital South site has been granted conditional

approval by Sefton Council; the original planning application invited comments from interested parties16

(comments now removed and consultation closed). These comments suggested strong support for the

new railway station at Maghull North and frustration with the scheme having been ‘promised’ before but not

delivered. The document states the following:

“There was strong support from the local community to safeguard land for the future Maghull

North rail station and car park, proposed by Merseytravel. This will ensure sustainable

transport links for the new homes and the surrounding residential area.”

‘Respond’ is a Customer Response Management system utilised by Merseytravel. It is used to record

comments, complaints and compliments from customers of Merseytravel. Where there are specific queries

that require an action, the appropriate Merseytravel Officer is identified; any response which they provide is

also recorded in the system. As the project moves forward comments from the Respond system will be

provided to the wider project team, so as to keep up-to-date with public concerns in the local area.

The proposed engagement with wider and core stakeholders are shown below. A Communications

Strategy has been developed for the project and this is included as Appendix N. This is designed to fulfil

the aims of the Merseytravel Corporate Plan and the associated Corporate Communication Strategy, which

is also included as Appendix S for completeness. A summary of the Stakeholder Communication and

Management Strategy, highlighting the proposed methods of engagement with the identified stakeholders

is shown in Table 6.9 below.

16 http://pa.sefton.gov.uk/online-applications/files/03F8074DDC1F50D7A3D1FBC0E9D5FF02/pdf/DC_2014_00980-CONSULTATION_STATEMENT_V1.0_PART1-722712.pdf

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Table 6.9: Method of engagement with stakeholders

Stakeholder Method

Districts/

Political

Combined Authority leaders (most notably Sefton) Reports at key milestones; Chair stakeholder email; as part of regular Merseytravel briefings; one-to-ones.

LEP

Reports at key milestones; Chair stakeholder email; one-to-ones.

Merseytravel committee members (Sefton) One-to-ones; reports at key milestones; e-communications.

Neighbouring authority - West Lancashire Borough Council Stakeholder newsletter e-comms.

Sefton Central MP, Bill Esterson

Reports at key milestones; Chair stakeholder email; one-to-ones.

Maghull Town Council

Reports at key milestones; one-to-ones.

Internal

Merseytravel Committee Members Reports at key milestones; briefings; @allstaff emails; weekly updates; stakeholder email; members briefing.

Merseytravel (Board)

Reports at key milestones; weekly meetings.

Merseytravel staff @allstaff emails, Connect, Weekly Staff Briefing, OnePlace.

Bus operators One-to-ones; stakeholder meetings.

Other rail operators (e.g. Northern Rail) One-to-Ones;

e-comms; stakeholder newsletter.

Other External bodies DfT / Growth Deal One-to-ones; reports at key milestones.

Liverpool and Sefton Chamber of Commerce Stakeholder newsletter; one-to-ones.

PTEG Press release.

Press & Media (Liverpool Echo + local weeklies) Publicity at key milestones; press releases; Editor Briefings/Radio phone-ins.

Press & Media (trade) Publicity at key milestones; press releases.

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Stakeholder Method

Paying Public Publicity, Press & PR, roadshows, customer forums.

Rail North One-to-ones, scheduled meetings.

Neighbours (local residents) Letters, drop-in forums, publicity in local press.

Maghull Station Volunteers One-to-ones.


Table 6.10: Core stakeholder engagement

Stakeholder Method

Sefton Council Chief Exec Reports at key milestones; Chief exec stakeholder email; as part of regular Merseytravel briefings; regular briefings with Frank Rogers.

Sefton ward councillors (rep. area station is located within)

Updates via Merseytravel committee members, Sefton internal processes/channels.

Merseyrail One-to-ones; e-comms; part of deliver and comms group meetings; reports at key milestones.

Network Rail One-to-ones; e-comms; part of deliver and comms group meetings; reports at key milestones.

Homes and Communities Agency (HCA)

One-to-ones; reports at key milestones.

Persimmon Homes (Housing Developer)

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As the scheme progresses the Stakeholder Communication and Management Strategy will be updated to

reflect the various proposed methods used so that elected representatives, nearby residents and the wider

general public can be advised on the progress with the scheme and key activities which are planned with

regards its development and implementation.

6.6.3 Rail Information Project

As part of the scheme development, a six week long public information campaign will be run by

Merseytravel. This will provide the public with opportunities to comment on the scheme option developed

for Maghull North. It would include a public exhibition at various times to be held in a relevant location,

together with leaflets, posters and a website disseminating information about the scheme. The public

would be asked for their views on the scheme and scheme neighbours will be consulted for the second

time.

6.7 Monitoring and Evaluation

The Magenta Book17 provides Central Government guidance on evaluation and details best practice that

should be followed. This identifies that evaluation should be “proportionate to the risks, scale and profile of

the policy”. It also identifies the types of evaluation, namely:

Process evaluation – how the policy was delivered; and

Impact evaluation – what difference the policy made.

Based on the economic assessment there are a number of headline demand forecasts for 2036. These

include facilitating a total of 219,200 new-to-rail journeys at Maghull North, 186,000 rail journeys abstracted

from other stations and 54,000 new-to-rail journeys induced at Town Green, Aughton Park and Ormskirk.

Given the importance of demonstrating clear links between the outputs from the scheme and their

outcomes and how these support the project objectives, a causal chain diagram has been produced which

highlights the expected outputs, outcomes and impacts of the scheme as a whole. This leads onto the

measures Merseytravel intend to use to assess the success of the scheme against its strategic outcomes

and impacts. The causal chain diagram is shown in Figure 6.8 below.

17 The Magenta Book: Guidance for evaluation, HM Treasury, April 2011

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Figure 6.8: Monitoring causal chain diagram


A number of key outcomes have been identified, including:

Improved access to and from the station;

Improved passenger experience and satisfaction with the station;

Improved accessibility to employment sites, education and leisure;

Mode shift to sustainable modes (bus and rail); and

Increase in levels of park and ride usage.

The key impacts from the scheme will be:

Increase in rail patronage in the Maghull area;

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Increase in use of public and sustainable transport to access the station, including increased levels of

bus, walking and cycling; and

Economic growth, including uplift in job opportunities and GVA.

In terms of impact evaluation, a number of potential data sources have been identified which could be of

use in considering the effectiveness of the scheme. These are summarised in Table 6.11.

Table 6.11: Possible data sources and relevant performance indicators for monitoring and evaluation

Subject Data Source Measures Outcome

Overall demand at stations (Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull North, Maghull, Aintree)

Data collection exercise

Boarding and alighting at the station on surveyed trains

Reduction in demand at existing stations;

Monitoring of demand build-up at Maghull North

Mode of access to Maghull North station

Data collection exercise or NPS data

% of demand travelling to station by:

– Cycle

– Bus

– Car (dropped off / as passenger)

– Car (as driver)

– Taxi

– On foot

Calculate actual demand by mode (link to overall demand) and monitor over time

Mode of access to existing stations (Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull, Aintree)

Data collection exercise or NPS data

% of demand travelling to station by:

– Cycle

– Bus

– Car (dropped off / as passenger)

– Car (as driver)

– Taxi

– On foot

Calculate actual demand by mode (link to overall demand) and monitor over time

Level of use of park and ride facilities

Surveys at stations

% of demand travelling to station by car and parking at station car park

% occupancy of car park

Increase in measures at Maghull North, reductions at Ormskirk, Town Green, Maghull and Aintree

Satisfaction with park and ride facilities

National Passenger Surveys

% satisfied with car parking at station

Increase in measures at all stations.

Congestion in local area Data collection exercise Traffic flows (and possibly

speeds) on key links around Maghull

Decrease in traffic flows on links around existing station


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The National Rail Passenger Survey (NRPS) provides a twice yearly survey on a representative sample of

journeys, undertaking in both spring and autumn. This looks at specific details of the service and allows a

comparison over time.

There are some weaknesses in the survey, in that in order to gain a representative sample the stations

included in one survey ‘wave’ may not necessarily be included in the next survey. In order to be able to

use the data to monitor changes on the Liverpool-Ormskirk line we would have to be confident that the

relevant stations would be included in both ‘before’ and ‘after’ survey waves. Merseytravel will seek to

boost the survey at key stations between Aintree and Ormskirk before and after station opening, the results

of which will be used to measure mode of access to each station and satisfaction with car parking facilities.

It is vital that the travel patterns of current non-rail users that may be attracted to the new station are also

captured before completion. It is proposed that a bespoke survey is undertaken to capture travel patterns

of residents living in Maghull and West Lancashire is conducted, which will measure the impact the new

station will have on mode shift and access to employment sties, education and leisure; as well as to

estimate displacement from other rail stations.

Merseytravel have undertaken boarding and alighting count surveys on trains on the Northern Line and

which potentially form the basis for regular monitoring in the future. Another potential data source is train

count data that they may hold for the Liverpool-Ormskirk route.

Traffic and parking surveys will also be necessary in the local area. Car park occupancy surveys both

before and after the scheme at relevant stations will need to be undertaken to establish the level of use of

each station as a park and ride site. Consultation with Sefton Council will be able to establish which roads

in the Maghull area they feel are subject to congestion as a result of traffic to and from the existing station.

The targets and measures of the scheme’s success need to be established once the baseline data is

available. Several data sources for monitoring the project have been identified, and an appropriate up-to-

date baseline position will need to be established before meaningful targets, with appropriate timescales,

are established.

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6.8 Conclusions

The new station at Maghull North will be delivered over a three year period with the scheme

completed in time for opening with the planned May 2018 timetable change. Information provided in

the management case evidence highlights that:

Robust governance, assurance (through the GRIP stages) and risk management processes

are in place to deliver the scheme;

As part of the risk assessment and QRA process risks have been taken into account, and

risks have been reviewed at a risk workshop held in February 2015;

A list of key stakeholders relating to the project has been identified. A Stakeholder

Communication and Management Strategy is in the process of being developed to ensure

that effective engagement takes place through the different stages of scheme delivery; and

A set of potential data sources and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) have been identified

to help establish a monitoring and evaluation framework to assess the success in meeting its

objectives which will be further developed for the full business case.

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7.1 Summary

The proposed station at Maghull North performs well against each of the five cases set out above as


Table 7.1: Business Case Summary

Measure of success

Strategic Case

The scheme has a robust case for change with a number of clearly identified problems in terms of accessibility and car park capacity. The station will support housing and employment developments on adjacent land, ensuring that the rail station contributes to the sustainable growth of the economy of the Liverpool City Region.

Economic Case

The appraisal shows that the scheme will produce a BCR of 1.89 which represent medium value for money. Without full deployment of the allowance at this stage for Optimism Bias, the BCR of the scheme increases to high.

Financial Case The scheme cost is considered to be affordable.

Commercial Case Merseytravel have received a draft Development Services Agreement which will be signed in due course, and this will allow further development of the scheme.

Management Case The scheme is achievable and both Merseytravel and Network Rail have the necessary procedures in place to ensure successful delivery.


7.2 Conclusions

7 Summary and Conclusions

Demand forecasts have been developed for the scheme with reference to guidance contained within

the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and the DfT’s web-based Transport Analysis

Guidance (TAG). Demand forecasts predict 369,300 journeys from Maghull North in 2018, with 55%

of these journeys new to rail and 45% of these journeys abstracted from nearby stations.

The economic appraisal forecasts that the scheme will deliver a Present Value of Benefits of £14.377

million. The Present Value of Costs is estimated to be £7.617 million. This suggests that benefit to

cost ratio will be 1.89 which represents medium value for money using the LEP based growth

scenario which uses population and employment forecasts developed for the City Region Long Term

Rail Strategy.