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Macro Resea rchBoard
partnersmrbI n d e p e n d e n t I n v e s t m e n t S t r a t e g y
MRB Asset Allocation Recommendations1
March 23, 2018
M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 © ( s e e f i n a l p a g e f o r f u l l c o p y r i g h t )
Fixed IncomeDurationGovernment BondsYield Curve6
Inflation ProtectionCorporate Bonds7:
Investment-GradeHigh-Yield
EM Sovereign:
USD DebtLocal Currency Debt
EquitiesFixed IncomeCashCommodities
+- N
DM Government Bonds7 (Currency Hedged)AustraliaCanada Euro Area
Ex- GermanyGermany
JapanNew ZealandNorwaySwedenSwitzerlandU.K.U.S.
Regional Equities2
AustraliaCanadaEuro Area
Ex- GermanyGermany
Hong KongJapanSwedenSwitzerlandU.K.U.S.Emerging Markets
Commodity Exporters3
Commodity Importers4
Global Equity Sectors2
Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrialsInformation TechnologyMaterialsReal EstateTelecom ServicesUtilities
Currencies (vs US$)AustraliaCanadaEuro AreaJapanNew ZealandNorwaySingaporeSwedenSwitzerlandU.K.Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Currencies (vs EM Basket)BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaKoreaMexicoRussiaSouth AfricaTaiwanTurkey
Emerging Markets Equities5
BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaKoreaMexicoRussia South AfricaTaiwanTurkeyPeripheral EMs
MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018
Overall Asset Allocation+- N
1 6-12 month horizon2 Relative to common currency global equity benchmark3 Includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Russia, South Africa4 Includes China, Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Korea, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey5 Relative to common currency emerging markets equity benchmark6 + = Steepener and - = Flattener7 Relativetohedgedglobalfixedincomebenchmark
Note: Apart from the Asset Allocation section, recommendations are within asset classes; + = maximum overweight, N = neutral and – = maximum underweight
2M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 © ( s e e f i n a l p a g e f o r f u l l c o p y r i g h t )
mrb March 23, 2018
Reference Charts
40
60
80
100
40
60
80
100Global**
Stock-To-Bond Total Return*:
40
60
80
100
40
60
80
100Global: Equity Prices / Commodities*
Relative Total Return:
40
60
80
100
40
60
80
100U.S.
60
80
100
120
60
80
100
120Government Bonds / Commodities*
40
60
80
100
40
60
80
100Euro Area
120
160
200
120
160
200High Yield Bonds / Stock Prices
40
60
80
100
40
60
80
100U.K.
80
100
120
80
100
120
High Yield Bonds / Corporate Bond Master
80
120
80
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Emerging Markets**
* MSCI stock market total return index divided by government bond total return index** U.S. dollarsNote: All series rebased; - - - 40-week moving average
40
80
40
80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Stock Prices / Gold Price
* Continuous Commodity Index; source Commodity Research BureauNote: All series rebased; - - - 40-week moving average
MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018 MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018
Relative Asset Performance*
3M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 © ( s e e f i n a l p a g e f o r f u l l c o p y r i g h t )
mrb March 23, 2018
Regional Equities
100
200
300
100
200
300
Local currencyUS$(for all panels)
Australia
60
80
100
60
80
100
Japan
100
150
200
100
150
200Canada
75
100
125
75
100
125Sweden
100
200
100
200Emerging Markets
120
160
120
160Switzerland
80
100
120
80
100
120Euro Area
80
100
120
80
100
120U.K.
80
120
160
80
120
160
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Hong Kong
Note: Relative to equity benchmark; rebased; source: MSCI
80
90
100
110
80
90
100
110
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
U.S.
Note: Relative to global equity benchmark; rebased; source: MSCI
MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018
4M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 © ( s e e f i n a l p a g e f o r f u l l c o p y r i g h t )
mrb March 23, 2018
Emerging Market Equities
100
150
200
100
150
200
Brazil
120
160
120
160
Mexico
80
100
120
80
100
120China
100
200
300
100
200
300
Russia
80
120
160
80
120
160India
100
120
140
160
100
120
140
160South Africa
100
200
100
200
Indonesia
40
80
40
80
Taiwan
80
100
120
140
80
100
120
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Korea
Note: Relative to emerging markets equity benchmark; - - - 40-week moving average;U.S. dollars; rebased; source: MSCI
40
80
120
40
80
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Turkey
Note: Relative to emerging markets equity benchmark; - - - 40-week moving average;U.S. dollars; rebased; source: MSCI
MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018 MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018
5M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 © ( s e e f i n a l p a g e f o r f u l l c o p y r i g h t )
mrb March 23, 2018
Fixed Income
100
120
140
160
100
120
140
160
Global Bond Total Return*:
Government / Cash
100
120
140
160
100
120
140
160
U.S. Bond Total Return*:
Government / Cash
90
100
110
90
100
110
Corporate / Government
90
100
110
120
90
100
110
120Corporate / Government
80
100
120
80
100
120
High-Yield / Corporate
75
100
125
75
100
125
High-Yield / Government
100
110
120
100
110
120
Index-Linked / Government
100
120
140
160
100
120
140
160
Euro Area Bond Total Return*:Government / Cash
120
160
200
120
160
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Emerging Market Sovereign*** / Global Government
* Local currency; rebased; source: BofA Merrill Lynch** U.S. dollar denominated debtNote: - - - 40-week moving average
90
95
100
90
95
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Corporate / Government
* Local currency; rebased; source: BofA Merrill LynchNote: - - - 40-week moving average
MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018 MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018
6M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 © ( s e e f i n a l p a g e f o r f u l l c o p y r i g h t )
mrb March 23, 2018
Fixed Income
500400
300250200
150
100
500400
300250200
150
100
CCI Commodity Prices*:Energy
120
160
200
120
160
200
Relative CCI Commodity Prices*:
Energy
500400
300250200
150
100
500400
300250200
150
100
Precious Metals
120
160
120
160
Precious Metals
400
300250200
150
100
400
300250200
150
100
Industrials
80
100
120
80
100
120Industrials
300
200
100
300
200
100
Softs
80
100
120
80
100
120Softs
300
200
100
300
200
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Grains
* Continuous Commodity Index; rebased; source: Commodity Research BureauNote: - - - 40-week moving average
80
100
120
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Grains
* Relative to aggregate Continuous Commodity Index; rebased; source: Commodity Research BureauNote: - - - 40-week moving average
MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018 MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018
7M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 © ( s e e f i n a l p a g e f o r f u l l c o p y r i g h t )
mrb March 23, 2018
Exchange Rates
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.6
0.8
1.0
U.S. Dollar / Australian Dollar Exchange Rate
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.8
1.0
1.2
U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen Exchange Rate
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.8
U.S. Dollar / Singapore Dollar Exchange Rate
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
U.S. Dollar / Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc Exchange Rate
0.018
0.020
0.022
0.024
0.018
0.020
0.022
0.024
U.S. Dollar / Emerging Markets Exchange Rate*
1.6
2.0
1.6
2.0
U.S. Dollar / U.K. Pound Exchange Rate
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1.0 1.0– –
1.2 1.2– –
1.4 1.4– –
U.S. Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate
* Emerging market currency basket; source: MSCINote: - - - 40-week moving average
80
100
120
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate*
* U.S. DXY indexNote: - - - 40-week moving average
MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018MRB Partners Inc © 03/2018
MacroResearch Board
I n d e p e n d e n t I n v e s t m e n t S t r a t e g y
partnersmrbMarch 23, 2018
8M R B PA R T N E R S I N C . m w w w . m r b p a r t n e r s . c o m m C o p y r i g h t 2 0 1 8 ©
MRB - The Macro Research Board is a privately-owned
independent top-down research firm that provides
integrated, global, multi-asset investment strategy as
well as actionable absolute and relative return ideas.
Our views incorporate a long-term outlook based on
in-depth thematic research, together with a rigorous
set of frameworks and forecasting models/indicators
that drive 6-12 month asset market performance.
MRB’s team of analysts and strategists leverage the
firm’s robust research engine and their extensive
experience to form one cohesive house view and
ensure that investment strategy is articulated in a
client-friendly manner.
Copyright 2018©, MRB Partners Inc. All rights reserved.
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MRB Partners Inc. relies on a variety of data providers for economic and financial market information. The data used in this report are judged to be reliable, but MRB Partners Inc. cannot be held accountable for the accuracy of data used herein.
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