Macroeconomic Overview

7/27/2019 Macroeconomic Overview

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8

THE DATA OF MACROECONOMICS

Chapter 23: Measuring a Nations Income

Microeconomics

Microeconomics is the study of how individual households and firms make

decisions and how they interact with one another in markets.

Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole.

Its goal is to explain the economic changes that affect many households,

firms, and markets at once.

Macroeconomics answers questions such as the following:

Why is average income high in some countries and low in others?

Why do prices rise rapidly in some time periods while they are more stable

in others?

Why do production and employment expand in some years and contract in

others?

THE ECONOMYS INCOME ANDEXPENDITURE

When judging whether the economy is doing well or poorly, it is natural to look at

the total income that everyone in the economy is earning.

For an economy as a whole, income must equal expenditurebecause:

Every transaction has a buyer and a seller.

Every dollar of spending by some buyer is a dollar of income for some

seller.

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the income and expenditures of an

economy.

It is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country

in a given period of time.

The equality of income and expenditure can be illustrated with the circular-flow

diagram.


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GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country

in a given period of time.

GDP is the Market Value . . .

Output is valued at market prices.

. . . Of All Final . . .

It records only the value of final goods, not intermediate goods (the value is

counted only once).

. . . Goods and Services . . .

It includes both tangible goods (food, clothing, cars) and intangible services

(haircuts, house cleaning, doctor visits).

. . . Produced . . .

It includes goods and services produced in the period were considering, not

transactions involving goods produced in the past.

. . . Within a Country . . .

It measures the value of production within the geographic confines of a

country.

. . . In a Given Period of Time.

It measures the value of production that takes place within a specific interval

of time, usually a year or a quarter (three months).


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THE COMPONENTS OF GDP

GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legallyin markets.

What Is Not Counted in GDP?

GDP excludes most items that are produced and consumed at home and that

never enter the marketplace. It excludes items produced and sold illicitly, such as illegal drugs.

GDP (Y) is the sum of the following:

Consumption (C)

Investment (I)

Government Purchases (G)

Net Exports (NX)

Y = C + I + G + NX

Consumption (C):

The spending by households on goods and services, with the exception of

purchases of new housing.

I nvestment (I ):

The spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures, including

new housing.

Government Pur chases (G):

The spending on goods and services by local and central governments.

Does notinclude transfer payments because they are not made in exchange

for currently produced goods or services.

Net Exports (NX):

Exports minus imports.

This table shows total GDP for the UK economy in 2009 and the breakdown of GDP among its

four components.


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REAL VERSUS NOMINAL GDP

Nominal GDPvalues the production of goods and services at current prices.

Real GDPvalues the production of goods and services at constant prices.

An accurate view of the economy requires adjusting nominal to real GDP by using

the GDP deflator.

Table 2 Real and Nominal GDP

The GDP Deflator

The GDP deflator is a measure of the price level calculated as the ratio of nominal

GDP to real GDP times 100.

It tells us the rise in nominal GDP that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a

rise in the quantities produced.

The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:

Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP

Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:

GDP deflator =Nominal GDP

Real GDP100

Real GDPNominal GDP

GDP deflator20XX

20XX

20XX

100


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GDP AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING

GDP is the best single measure of the economic well-being of a society.

GDP per persontells us the mean income and expenditure of the people in the

economy.

Higher GDP per person indicates a higher standard of living.

GDP is not a perfect measure of the happiness or quality of life, however.

Some things that contribute to well-being are not included in GDP.

The value of leisure.

The value of a clean environment.

The value of almost all activity that takes place outside of markets, such as

the value of the time parents spend with their children and the value of

volunteer work.

SUMMARY

Because every transaction has a buyer and a seller, the total expenditure in the

economy must equal the total income in the economy.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures an economys total expenditure on newly

produced goods and services and the total income earned from the production of

these goods and services.

GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a countryin a given period of time.

GDP is divided among four components of expenditure: consumption, investment,

government purchases, and net exports.

Nominal GDP uses current prices to value the economys production. Real GDP

uses constant base-year prices to value the economys production of goods and

services.

The GDP deflatorcalculated from the ratio of nominal to real GDPmeasures the

level of prices in the economy.

GDP is a good measure of economic well-being because people prefer higher tolower incomes.

It is not a perfect measure of well-being because some things, such as leisure time

and a clean environment, arent measured by GDP.


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Chapter 24: Measuring the Cost of Living

Inflation is the term used to describe a situation in which the economys overall

price level is rising.

The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous

period.

THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and

services bought by a typical consumer.

The Office of National Statisticsreports the CPI each month.

It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.

When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more money to maintain the

same standard of living.

HOW THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IS CALCULATED

F ix the Basket:Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) identifies a market basket of goods

and services the typical consumer buys.

The ONS conducts regular consumer surveys to set the weights for the

prices of those goods and services.

F ind the Pri ces:Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for

each point in time.

Compute the Baskets Cost:Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the

basket of goods and services at different times.

Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index:

Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which

other years are compared.

Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the

price in the base year and multiplying by 100.

Compute the in f lation rate:The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price

index from the preceding period.

The Inflation Rate

The inflation rate is calculated as follows:

Inflation Rate in Year 2 =CPI in Year 2-CPI in Year 1

CPI in Year 1100


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Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate:Another Example

Base Year is 2002.

Basket of goods in 2002 costs1,200.

The same basket in 2010 costs1,436.

CPI = (1,436/1,200) 100 = 119.7

Prices increased 19.7 percent between 2002 and 2010.

PROBLEMS IN MEASURING THE COST OF LIVING


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PROBLEMS IN MEASURING THE COST OF LIVING

The CPI is an accurate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical

bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living.

Substitution bias

Introduction of new goods Unmeasured quality changes

Substitution Bias

The basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in

relative prices.

Consumers substitute toward goods that have become relatively less

expensive.

The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering

consumer substitution.

Introduction of New Goods

The basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by

the introduction of new products.

New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each

euro more valuable.

Consumers need less money to maintain any given standard of

living.

Unmeasured Quality Changes

If the quality of a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a euro

rises, even if the price of the good stays the same.

If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a euro

falls, even if the price of the good stays the same.

The ONS tries to adjust the price for constant quality, but such differences

are hard to measure.

The substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changescause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living.

The issue is important because many government programs use the CPI to

adjust for changes in the overall level of prices.

Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices

The same method is used to calculate CPI throughout the EU

This allows for direct comparison of inflation rates among EU member states.


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The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index

The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:

The ONS calculates other prices indexes:

Theproducer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and

services bought by firms rather than consumers.

Economists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer

price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising.

There are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to

diverge.

The GDP deflatorreflects the prices of all goods and servicesproduced

domestically, whereas...

the consumer price indexreflects the prices of all goods and services bought by

consumers.

The consumer price indexcompares the price of afixed basketof goods and

services to the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the ONS

change the basket)...

whereas the GDP deflatorcompares the price of currently producedgoods and

services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.

CORRECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION

Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing money

figures from different times.

Money Figures from Different Times

Do the following to convert (inflate) MPs salary in 1911 to a figure in 2009

pounds:

GDP deflator =Nominal GDP

Real GDP100


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Indexation

When some money amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or

contract, the amount is said to be indexed for inflation.

Real and Nominal Interest Rates

Interest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past.

The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported and not corrected for

inflation.

It is the interest rate that a bank pays.

The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for the effects of

inflation.

You borrowed1,000 for one year.

Nominal interest rate was 15%.

During the year inflation was 10%.

Real i nterest rate = Nominal in terest rateI nflation=15% - 10% = 5%


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Summary

The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative

to the cost of the same basket in the base year.

The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy.

The percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate.

The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the

following three reasons:

substitution bias,

the introduction of new goods,

and unmeasured changes in quality.

The GDP deflator differs from the CPI because it includes goods and services

produced rather than goods and services consumed.

In addition, the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods, while the GDP deflator

automatically changes the group of goods and services over time as the composition

of GDP changes.

Money figures from different points in time do not represent a valid comparison of

purchasing power.

Various laws and private contracts use price indexes to correct for the effects of

inflation.

The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation.


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9

THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN

Chapter 25: Production and Growth

A countrys standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services. Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time.

In the UK over the past century or so, average income as measured by real GDP per

person has grown by about 1.3 per cent per year.

This rate of increase might not sound very impressive but it means that GDP per

person doubles every 50 years.

Annual growth rates that seem small become significant when compounded for

many years.

Growth rates vary greatly.

In some East Asian countries GDP per person has grown at a rate of about 7 percent per year in recent decades.

At this rate, GDP person doubles in just ten years.

Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of a

workers time.

A nations standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD

Living standards, as measured by real GDP per person, vary significantly among

nations.

The United Kingdom is an advanced economy. In 2006, its GDP per person

was $35,580.

Mexico is a middle-income country. In 2006, its GDP per person was

$11,410.

Mali is a poor country. In 2006, its GDP per person was only $1,130.

The poorest countries have average levels of income that have not been seen in the

UK for many decades.


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PRODUCTIVITY: ITS ROLE AND DETERMINANTS

Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world.

Why Productivity Is So Important

Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services that a worker can produce

from each hour of work. To understand the large differences in living standards across countries, we must

focus on the production of goods and services.

How Productivity Is Determined

The inputs used to produce goods and services are called the factors of production .

The factors of production directly determine productivity.

The Factors of Production

Physical capital

Human capital Natural resources

Technological knowledge

Physical Capital

is a produced factor of production.

It is an input into the production process that in the past was an

output from the production process.

is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and

services. Tools used to build or repair automobiles.

Tools used to build furniture.

Office buildings, schools, etc.

Human Capital

the economists term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire

through education, training, and experience

Like physical capital, human capital raises a nations ability to

produce goods and services.

Natural Resources

inputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers,

and mineral deposits.

Renewable resources include trees and forests.

Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal.

can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly

productive in producing goods and services.

Technological Knowledge

societys understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services.


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Human capitalrefers to the resources expended transmitting this

understanding to the labor force.

FYI: THE PRODUCTION FUNCTION

Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the

quantity of inputs used in production and the quantity of output from production.

Y = A F(L, K, H, N)

Y= quantity of output

A= available production technology

L= quantity of labour

K= quantity of physical capital

H= quantity of human capital

N= quantity of natural resources

F( )is a function that shows how the inputs are combined.

A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive numberx,xY = A

F(xL, xK, xH, xN)

That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well.

Production functions with constant returns to scale have an interesting implication.

Settingx = 1/L,

Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)

Where:

Y/L= output per worker

K/L= physical capital per worker

H/L= human capital per worker

N/L= natural resources per worker

The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on physical capital per

worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker

(N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A).

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC POLICY

Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.

Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living Standards

Encourage saving and investment.

Encourage investment from abroad

Encourage education and training.

Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability.

Promote free trade.

Promote research and development.

The Importance of Saving and Investment

One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the

production of capital.


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Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect

As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of

capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns.

Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth

only for a while.

In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and

income, but notto higher growth in these areas.

The catch-up effect refers to the property whereby countries that start off poor tend

to grow more rapidly than countries that start off rich.

Investment from Abroad

Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by

encouraging investment from foreign sources.

Investment from abroad takes several forms:

Foreign Direct Investment

Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity.

Foreign Portfolio Investment

Investments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic

residents.

Education

For a countrys long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in

physical capital.

In the developed economies of Western Europe and North America States,

each year of schooling raises a persons wage, on average, by about 10

percent.

Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to

provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them.

An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and

services, which in turn, might enter societys pool of knowledge and provide an

external benefit to others.

One problem facing some poor countries is the brain drainthe emigration of

many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.

Health and Nutrition

Human capital usually refers to education but it can also refer to other investments

in people such as investments in improved health.

Robert Fogel, has suggested that a significant factor in long-run economic growth is

improved health from better nutrition. He estimates that in Great Britain in 1780

about 1/5 people were so malnourished that they were incapable of manual labour.

From 1775 to 1975, the average caloric intake in Great Britain rose by 26 per cent

and the height of the average man rose by 3.6 inches (around 10 cm).

Fogel won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1993 for his work in economic history.

In his Nobel lecture he concluded that improved gross nutrition accounts for

roughly 30 per cent of the growth of per capita income in Britain between 1790 and

1980.


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Property Rights and Political Stability

Property rightsrefer to the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources

they own.

An economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for

the price system to work.

It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.

Free Trade

A country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of

economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance.

When a country exports wheat and imports steel, the country benefits in the

same way as if it had invented a technology for turning wheat into steel.

Some countries engage in . . .

inward-orientatedtrade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries.

outward-orientatedtrade policies, encouraging interaction with other

countries.Research and Development

The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living.

Most technological advance comes from private research by firms and

individual inventors.

Government can encourage the development of new technologies through

research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.

Population Growth

Economists and other social scientists have long debated how population growth

affects a society

Population growth interacts with other factors of production:

Stretching natural resources

Diluting the capital stock

Promoting technological progress

SUMMARY

Economic prosperity, as measured by real GDP per person, varies substantiallyaround the world.

The average income of the worlds richest countries is more than ten times that in

the worlds poorest countries.

The standard of living in an economy depends on the economys ability to produce

goods and services.

Productivity depends on the amounts of physical capital, human capital, natural

resources, and technological knowledge available to workers.

Government policies can influence the economys growth rate in many ways.

The accumulation of capital is subject to diminishing returns.

Because of diminishing returns, higher saving leads to a higher growth for a period

of time, but growth will eventually slow down. Also because of diminishing returns,

the return to capital is especially high in poor countries.


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Chapter 26: Saving, Investment, and FinancialSystem

The Financial System

The financial system consists of the group of institutions in the economy that help tomatch one persons saving with another persons investment.

It moves the economys scarce resources from savers to borrowers.

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE ECONOMY

Thefinancial system is made up of financial institutions that coordinate the actions

of savers and borrowers.

Financial institutions can be grouped into two different categories: financial markets

and financial intermediaries.

Financial Markets

Stock Market Bond Market

Financial Intermediaries

Banks

Investment Funds

Financial markets are the institutions through which savers can directly provide

funds to borrowers.

Financial intermediaries are financial institutions through which savers can

indirectly provide funds to borrowers.

Financial Markets

The Bond Market

A bond is a certificate of indebtedness that specifies obligations of the

borrower to the holder of the bond.

Characteristics of a Bond

Term: The length of time until the bond matures.

Credit Risk: The probability that the borrower will fail to pay some

of the interest or principal.


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The Stock Market

Stock represents a claim to partial ownership in a firm and is therefore, a

claim to the profits that the firm makes.

The sale of stock to raise money is called equity financing.

Compared to bonds, stocks offer both higher risk and potentially

higher returns.

Stocks are traded on exchanges such as the London Stock Exchange and the

Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

The Stock Market

Most newspaper stock tables provide the following information:

Price (of a share)

Volume (number of shares sold)

Dividend (profits paid to stockholders)

Price-earnings ratioFinancial Intermediaries

Financial intermediaries are financial institutions through which savers can

indirectly provide funds to borrowers.

Banks

take deposits from people who want to save and use the deposits to make

loans to people who want to borrow.

pay depositors interest on their deposits and charge borrowers slightly higherinterest on their loans.

Investment Funds

An investment fund is an institution that sells shares to the public and uses

the proceeds to buy a portfolio, of various types of stocks, bonds, or both.

They allow people with small amounts of money to easily diversify.

Other Financial Institutions

Pension funds

Insurance companies

Pawnbrokers

Credit unions

Loan sharks

SAVING AND INVESTMENT IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS

Recall that GDP is both total income in an economy and total expenditure on theeconomys output of goods and services:

Y = C + I + G + NX


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Some Important Identities

Assume a closed economyone that does not engage in international trade:

Y = C + I + G

Now, subtract C and G from both sides of the equation:

YCG =I

The left side of the equation is the total income in the economy after paying for

consumption and government purchases and is called national saving, or justsaving

(S).

Substituting Sfor Y - C - G, the equation can be written as:

S = I

National saving, or saving, is equal to:

S = I

S = YCG

S = (YTC) + (T G)

The Meaning of Saving and Investment

National Saving

National savingis the total income in the economy that remains after paying

for consumption and government purchases.

Private Saving

Private saving is the amount of income that households have left after

paying their taxes and paying for their consumption.

Private saving = (YTC)

Public Saving

Public saving is the amount of tax revenue that the government has left after

paying for its spending.

Surplus and Deficit

If T > G, the government runs a budget surplus because it receives more

money than it spends. The surplus of T - G represents public saving.

If G > T, the government runs a budget deficit because it spends more

money than it receives in tax revenue.

Public saving = (TG)

For the economy as a whole, saving must be equal to investment.

S = I


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THE MARKET FOR LOANABLE FUNDS

We will assume for simplicity that the economy has only one financial market: the

market for loanable funds.

The market for loanable funds is the market in which those who want to save supply

funds and those who want to borrow to invest demand funds.

Loanable funds refers to all income that people have chosen to save and lend out,

rather than use for their own consumption.

Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds

The supply of loanable fundscomes from people who have extra income they want

to save and lend out.

The demand for loanable fundscomes from households and firms that wish to

borrow to make investments.

The interest rate is the price of the loan.

It represents the amount that borrowers pay for loans and the amount that lendersreceive on their saving.

The interest rate in the market for loanable funds is the real interest rate

and all references in this chapter to the interest rate should be understood to

refer to the real interest rate.

Financial markets work much like other markets in the economy.

The equilibrium of the supply and demand for loanable funds determines the

real interest rate.

Government Policies That Affect Saving and Investment

Taxes and saving

Taxes and investment

Government budget deficits

Policy 1: Saving Incentives

Taxes on interest income substantially reduce the future payoff from current saving

and, as a result, reduce the incentive to save.

A tax decrease increases the incentive for households to save at any given interest

rate.

The supply of loanable funds curve shifts to the right.

The equilibrium interest rate decreases.

The quantity demanded for loanable funds increases.


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If a change in tax law encourages greater saving, the result will be lowerinterest

rates andgreaterinvestment.

Policy 2: Investment Incentives

An investment tax credit increases the incentive to borrow.

Increases the demand for loanable funds.

Shifts the demand curve to the right.

Results in a higher interest rate and a greater quantity saved.

If a change in tax laws encourages greater investment, the result will be higher

interest rates andgreatersaving.

Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses

When the government spends more than it receives in tax revenues, the short fall is

called the budget deficit.

The accumulation of past budget deficits is called the government debt.

Government borrowing to finance its budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable

funds available to finance investment by households and firms.

This fall in investment is referred to as crowding out.

The deficit borrowing crowds out private borrowers who are trying to

finance investments.


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A budget deficit decreases the supply of loanable funds.

Shifts the supply curve to the left.

Increases the equilibrium interest rate.

Reduces the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds.

SUMMARY

When government reduces national saving by running a deficit, the interest rate

risesand investmentfalls.

A budget surplus increasesthe supply of loanable funds, reducesthe interest rate,

andstimulatesinvestment.

The financial system is made up of financial institutions such as the bond market,

the stock market, banks, and investment funds.

All these institutions act to direct the resources of households who want to save

some of their income into the hands of households and firms who want to borrow.

National income accounting identities reveal some important relationships among

macroeconomic variables.

In particular, in a closed economy, national saving must equal investment.

Financial institutions attempt to match one persons saving with another persons

investment. The interest rate is determined by the supply and demand for loanable funds.

The supply of loanable funds comes from households who want to save some of

their income.

The demand for loanable funds comes from households and firms who want to

borrow for investment.

National saving equals private saving plus public saving.

A government budget deficit represents negative public saving and, therefore,

reduces national saving and the supply of loanable funds.

When a government budget deficit crowds out investment, it reduces the growth ofproductivity and GDP.


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Chapter 28: Unemployment

IDENTIFYING UNEMPLOYMENT

Categories of Unemployment

The problem of unemployment is usually divided into two categories.

The long-run problem and the short-run problem:

The natural rate of unemployment

The cyclical rate of unemployment

Natural Rate of Unemployment

The natural rate of unemploymentisunemployment that does not go away

on its own even in the long run. It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.

Cycli cal Unemployment

Cyclical unemploymentrefers to the year-to-year fluctuations in

unemployment around its natural rate.

It is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle.

Describing Unemployment

Three Basic Questions:

How does government measure the economys rate of

unemployment?

What problems arise in interpreting the unemployment data?

How long are the unemployed typically without work?

Unemployment may be measured in two ways.

A monthly survey of householdsthe Labour Force Survey in the UK.

The claimant count.

Each adult is placed into one of three categories:

Employed

Unemployed

Not in the labour force

Labour Force

The labour force is the total number of workers, including both the

employed and the unemployed.


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The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labour force that is

unemployed.

The labour force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is

in the labour force.


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It is difficult to distinguish between a person who is unemployed and a person who

is not in the labour force.

Discouraged workers,people who would like to work but have given up looking for

jobs after an unsuccessful search, dont show up in unemployment statistics.

Other people may claim to be unemployed in order to receive financial assistance,

even though they arent looking for work. Most spells of unemployment are short.

Most unemployment observed at any given time is long-term.

Most of the economys unemployment problem is attributable to relatively few

workers who are jobless for long periods of time.

In an ideal labour market, wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for

labour, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed.

Fr ictional unemploymentrefers to the unemployment that results from the time

that it takes to match workers with jobs. In other words, it takes time for workers to

search for the jobs that are best suit their tastes and skills.

Structural unemploymentis the unemployment that results because the number of

jobs available in some labour markets is insufficient to provide a job for everyone

who wants one.

Job search

the process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their tastes and

skills.

results from the fact that it takes time for qualified individuals to be matched

with appropriate jobs.

This unemployment is different from the other types of unemployment.

It is not caused by a wage rate higher than equilibrium.

It is caused by the time spent searching for the right job.

Search unemployment is inevitable because the economy is always changing.

Changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions are called

sectoral shifts. It takes time for workers to search for and find jobs in new sectors.

Government programmes can affect the time it takes unemployed workers to find

new jobs.

These programmes include the following:

Government-run employment agencies

Public training programs

Unemployment insurance

Government-run employment agencies give out information about job vacancies inorder to match workers and jobs more quickly.

Public training programs aim to ease the transition of workers from declining to

growing industries and to help disadvantaged groups escape poverty.


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Unemployment insurance is a government programme that partially protects

workers incomes when they become unemployed.

Offers workers partial protection against job losses.

Offers partial payment of former wages for a limited time to those who are

laid off.

Unemployment insuranceincreases the amount of search unemployment.

It reduces the search efforts of the unemployed.

It may improve the chances of workers being matched with the right jobs.

Structural unemployment occurs when the quantity of labour supplied exceeds the

quantity demanded.

Structural unemployment is often thought to explain longer spells of

unemployment.

Why is there Structural Unemployment?

Minimum wage laws

Unions Efficiency wages

MINIMUM WAGE LAWS

When the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it

creates unemployment.

UNIONS AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING

A union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages andworking conditions.

In the early 1980s over half of the UK labour force was unionized but this figure fell

rapidly over a few years.

A union is a type of cartel attempting to exert its market power.

The process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called

collective bargaining.

Astrike may be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement.

A strike refers to when the union organizes a withdrawal of labour from the firm.

A strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off. Workers in unions (insiders) reap the benefits of collective bargaining, while

workers not in the union (outsiders) bear some of the costs.


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By acting as a cartel with the ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on

employers, unions usually achieve above-equilibrium wages for their members.

Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of labour to be inefficient and

inequitable.

Wages above the competitive level reduce the quantity of labour demanded

and cause unemployment.

Some workers benefit at the expense of other workers. Advocates of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote to the market

power of firms that hire workers.

They claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to

workers concerns.

THE THEORY OF EFFICIENCY WAGES

Efficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase

worker productivity.

The theory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages

are above the equilibrium level.

A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons:

Worker Health: Better paid workers eat a better diet and thus are more

productive.

Worker Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.

A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons:

Worker Effort: Higher wages motivate workers to put their best effort. Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply for

jobs.

SUMMARY

The unemployment rate is the percentage of those who would like to work but dont

have jobs.

The Office of National Statistics calculates this statistic monthly in the UK.

The unemployment rate is an imperfect measure of joblessness.

In the UK, most unemployed people find work within a short period of time. Most unemployment observed at any given time is attributable to a few people who

are unemployed for long periods of time.

One reason for unemployment is the time it takes for workers to search for jobs that

best suit their tastes and skills.

A second reason why the economy always has some unemployment is minimum

wage laws.

Minimum wage laws raise the quantity of labour supplied and reduce the quantity

demanded.

A third reason for unemployment is the market power of unions.

A fourth reason for unemployment is suggested by the theory of efficiency wages.

High wages can improve worker health, lower worker turnover, increase worker

effort, and raise worker quality.


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Chapter 30: Money Growth and Inflation

The Meaning of Money

Money is the set of assets in an economy that people regularly use to buy goods and

services from other people.

THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATION

Inflation is an increase in the overall level of prices.

Hyperinflation is an extraordinarily high rate of inflation.

Inflation: Historical Aspects

Inflation in the UK exceeded 20% per year in the mid-1970s.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s UK inflation has been low and stable at

around 2% per year. For long periods in the nineteenth century, some countries experienced

deflation, meaning decreasing average prices.

Hyperinflation refers to high rates of inflation such as Germany experienced

in the 1920s and Zimbabwe in 2007-08.

The quantity theory of money is used to explain the long-run determinants of the

price level and the inflation rate.

Inflation is an economy-wide phenomenon that concerns the value of the economys

medium of exchange.

When the overall price level rises, the value of money falls. The money supplyis a policy variable that is controlled by the central bank.

Through instruments such as open-market operations, the central bank

directly controls the quantity of money supplied.

Money demand has several determinants, including interest rates and the average

level of prices in the economy.

People hold money because it is the medium of exchange.

The amount of money people choose to hold depends on the prices of goods

and services. In the long run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand

for money equals the supply.


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The Quantity Theory of Money

The quantity of money available in the economy determines the value of

money.

The primary cause of inflation is the growth in the quantity of money.

Nominal variablesare variables measured in monetary units.

Real variablesare variables measured in physical units.

According to Hume and others, real economic variables do not change with changes

in the money supply.

According to the classical dichotomy, different forces influence real and

nominal variables. Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables.

The irrelevance of monetary changes for real variables is called monetary neutrality.

The velocity of money refers to the speed at which the money changes hands,

travelling around the economy from wallet to wallet.

V = (P Y)/M

Where: V = velocity

P = the price level

Y = the quantity of output

M= the quantity of money

Rewriting the equation gives the quantity equation:

M V = P Y

The quantity equation relates the quantity of money (M) to the nominal value of

output(PY).


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The quantity equation shows that an increase in the quantity of money in an

economy must be reflected in one of three other variables:

the price level must rise,

the quantity of output must rise, or

the velocity of money must fall.

The Equilibrium Price Level, Inflation Rate, and the Quantity Theory ofMoney

The velocity of money is relatively stable over time.

When the central bank changes the quantity of money, it causes

proportionate changes in the nominal value of output (P Y).

Because money is neutral, money does not affect output.

: Money and Prices during Four Hyperinflations

Hyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month. Hyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much

money to pay for its spending.

When the government raises revenue by printing money, it is said to levy an

inflation tax.

An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.

The inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms such as cuts in

government spending.

TheFisher effect refers to a one-to-one adjustment of the nominal interest rate to the

inflation rate.


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According to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest

rate rises by the same amount.

The real interest rate stays the same.

THE COSTS OF INFLATION

A Fall in Purchasing Power?

Inflation does notin itself reduce peoples real purchasing power.

Shoeleather costs

Menu costs

Relative price variability

Tax distortions

Confusion and inconvenience

Arbitrary redistribution of wealth

Shoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people toreduce their money holdings.

Inflation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize

their cash holdings.

Less cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-

bearing accounts.

The actual cost of reducing your money holdings is the time and convenience you

must sacrifice to keep less money on hand.

Also, extra trips to the bank take time away from productive activities.

Menu costs are the costs of adjusting prices. During inflationary, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices.

This is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive

activities.

Inflation distorts relative prices.

Consumer decisions are distorted, and markets are less able to allocate resources to

their best use.

Inflation exaggerates the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden on this

type of income.

With progressive taxation, capital gains are taxed more heavily.

The nominal interest earned on savings is treated as income for income tax

purposes, even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for

inflation.


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The after-tax real interest rate falls when inflation rises, making saving less

attractive.

Summary

When the central bank increases the money supply and creates inflation, it erodes

the real value of the unit of account.

Inflation causes money at different times to have different real values.

Rising prices, its more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, n profits over time.

Unexpected inflation redistributes wealth among the population in a way that has

nothing to do with either merit or need.

These redistributions occur because many loans in the economy are specified in

terms of the unit of accountmoney.

The overall level of prices in an economy adjusts to bring money supply and moneydemand into balance.

When central bank increases the supply of money, it causes the price level to rise.

Persistent growth in the quantity of money supplied leads to continuing inflation.

The principle of money neutrality asserts that changes in the quantity of money

influence nominal variables but not real variables.

A government can pay for its spending simply by printing more money.

This can result in an inflation tax and hyperinflation.

According to the Fisher effect, when the inflation rate rises, the nominal interest rate

rises by the same amount, and the real interest rate stays the same.

Many people think that inflation makes them poorer because it raises the cost of

what they buy.

This view is a fallacy because inflation also raises nominal incomes.

Economists have identified six costs of inflation:

Shoeleather costs

Menu costs

Increased variability of relative prices

Unintended tax liability changes

Confusion and inconvenience

Arbitrary redistributions of wealth

When banks loan out their deposits, they increase the quantity of money in the

economy. Because the central bank cannot control the amount bankers choose to lend or the

Documents

Macroeconomic Overview