MACRO-TRENDS SHAPING OPEN LIFELONG LEARNING

Jonatan Castaño Muñoz Christine Redecker

WS “OER FOR LLL”, Seville, 28-29 April 2013

Open Education

Demographics

Globalization

Economic Environment

ICT Revolution

Educational Environment

MACRO TRENDS

MACRO TRENDS

- Increasing adult population - Increasing adult learners. - Learning and cultural needs of many older people. - Workers & family responsibilities - Lifelong & on-work learning

DEMOGRAPHICS

Active Aging Adult learners

Inclusion of disadvantaged groups in education

Source: OECD, 2013.

MACRO TRENDS

• Global cultures - Interconnected world & shared cultures

- But also local… English as Internet Lingua Franca? And in education?

- How the use of different languages is linked to the quality and quantity of available information? How does it varies according to the language used?

GLOBALIZATION

Local needs

Language barriers

Global cultures

Cross-border collaborations

Global content

MACRO TRENDS

• .

ECONOMIC

ENVIRONMENT

New skills

Continuous Update

Specialization

Non-rivals goods

Employability

Knowledge economies

Economic crisis

Mismatch of skills

MACRO TRENDS

• ICT REVOLUTION ICT REVOLUTION

Big data & Learning Analythics

Web 2.0: Prosumer & Social component

Internet Users in the European Union

EUROPEAN UNION Internet Users, Penetration Facebook

30-Jun-12 (% Population) 31-Dec-12

Austria 6,559,355 79.80% 2,915,240

Belgium 8,489,901 81.30% 4,922,260

Bulgaria 3,589,347 51.00% 2,522,120

Cyprus 656,439 57.70% 582,600

Czech Republic 7,426,376 73.00% 3,834,620

Denmark 4,989,108 90.00% 3,037,700

Estonia 993,785 78.00% 501,680

Finland 4,703,480 89.40% 2,287,960

France 52,228,905 79.60% 25,624,760

Germany 67,483,860 83.00% 25,332,440

Greece 5,706,948 53.00% 3,845,820

Hungary 6,516,627 65.40% 4,265,960

Ireland 3,627,462 76.80% 2,183,760

Italy 35,800,000 58.40% 23,202,640

Latvia 1,570,925 71.70% 414,520

Lithuania 2,293,508 65.10% 1,118,500

Luxembourg 462,697 90.90% 227,520

Malta 282,648 69.00% 217,040

Netherlands 15,549,787 92.90% 7,554,940

Poland 24,940,902 64.90% 9,863,380

Portugal 5,950,449 55.20% 4,663,060

Romania 9,642,383 44.10% 5,374,980

Slovakia 4,337,868 79.10% 2,032,200

Slovenia 1,440,066 72.10% 730,160

Spain 31,606,233 67.20% 17,590,500

Sweden 8,441,718 92.70% 4,950,160

United Kingdom 52,731,209 83.60% 32,950,400

Total European Union 368,021,986 73.00% 192,746,920

Wide Internet Connexion

Closing the Skills gap? But what about the Ends divide…?

Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats9.htm

Mobile Connexion: Ubiquity

Semanthic web Augmented reality

Internet of things

MACRO TRENDS

- MIT Open Courseware

- 133 million total visits by 95 million visitors from all

over the world

- Average of 1 million visits per month

- 42% are students, 43% self-learners, 9% educators,

6% other

- cMOOCs:

- Usual number of course students: about 50,000 (to

180.000)

- Usual completion rates: about 10% (best rates about

20%)

- Coursera : 2,8 Milions of users from 200 countries.

327 Courses (march 2013)

- Share My Lesson: 254.000 Learning Resources (“by

teacher, for teachers”)

- Wikiwijs (NL): €8 million gov. funding 2011-2013; 65.000

lessons/courses and 800.000 objects (June 2012); 350.000

visits (year 2011)

•Poland “Digital School” programme (€13 million for

creation of free, open Textbooks)

•Glasgow Caledonian University Team Inventory

EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

Global lack of HE supply

Fuzzy boundaries formal and informal learning

Education for profit

ICT and Openness in Education: - MOOCS - OER

European Commission Initiative on Opening Up

Education

Research on the future of Open

Education

2006-2008

Past IPTS research

2005 2009-2011

9

Individual

Teaching

Student

Guide

Hierarchical

Informal and Lifelong

certification/validation

Learning by doing

2

0

1

0

2

0

2

0

Learning Spaces

Learner

Social

Teacher

Rote Learning

Institutional Multiple ways

Formal

Heterarchical

Learning activity

user

action

mediator

interaction

pedagogy

context

16 years 8 years 14 years 23 years 42 years 59 years 55 years 75 years 32 years

I’m bored. Why

can’t I go to uni

already?

School? Forget it! I’m not

going back there!

Pedagogy remains important,

teachers need to learn from

one another

Why don’t they teach you

at uni what you need to

find a job?

I would like to

open my own

business...

I am highly qualified

– but my job has

become obsolete...

I need to improve my

soft skills, but I don’t

want them to know...

How do I qualify

for a new job

with my poor

CV?

How will E&T meet future learning needs?

How can demand & supply of skills be matched?

I don’t understand a

word. I want to go

home.

Future of Learning Starting Point

Demography Globalisation Immigration Technology

Drivers

Labour market trends & demands

Labour Market

Personalisation

Collaboration

Informalisation

Tailormade & targeted

Active & constructive

Motivating & engaging

Learner-

centred

Social

learning

Lifewide

learning

Peer-learning

Sharing & collaborating

In communities

Anywhere, anytime

Blending virtual & real

Combining

sources/providers

Initiative, resilience

Responsibility

Risk-taking, creativity

Social

skills

Learning

skills

Personal

skills

Education & Training New ways of learning New skills

Managing, organising

Meta-cognitive skills

Failing forward

Team-, networking

Empathy, compassion

Co-constructing

ICT Trends

Social networks Games Mobiles OER

Augmented Reality Data mining

3D virtual worlds LMS

Electronic tutors

ePortfolios e-books

Learning analytics

? ? ?

?

Future of Learning Storyline

Demography Globalisation Technology

Drivers

Labour market trends & demands

Labour Market

ICT Trends

Personalisation

Collaboration

Informalisation

Tailormade & targeted Active & constructive Motivating & engaging

Learner- centred

Social learning

Lifewide learning

Peer-learning Sharing & collaborating In communities

Anywhere, anytime Blending virtual & real Combining

sources/providers

Initiative, resilience Responsibility

Risk-taking, creativity

Social skills

Learning skills

Personal skills

Education & Training

New ways of learning New skills

Managing, organising Meta-cognitive skills

Failing forward

Team-, networking Empathy, compassion

Co-constructing

Social networks Games Mobiles OER

Augmented Reality Data mining

3D virtual worlds LMS

Electronic tutors

ePortfolios e-books

Learning analytics

? ? ?

?

© European Commission, 2011 Source: IPTS (2011): „The Future of Learning: Preparing for Change“, http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=4719

Workshop Methodology

Step 1: Identifying the critical issues

Step 2: Identifying the (two) key tensions

Step 3: Describing the emerging scenarios

Step 4: Milestones & Roadmap

Low X High X

Low Y

High Y

-/+

-/-

+/+

+/-

Scenario A

Scenario C

Scenario B

Scenario D

Critical Factors for seizing the potential of OER for

Lifelong Learning in the Future

A Group Exercise

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

Dimension Ideal vision Means of achieving the

vision Barriers to be overcome

Knowledge gap / Inclusion How can the access to open education be broadened in the future?

Production of OER Who should produce the OER for LLL?

Quality How should quality of OER be assured in LLL?

Pedagogy How should learning and teaching with OER be different?

Recognition What should the certification, accreditation and recognition system be?

Economics of OER How should Open Education be financed? Which business models should be used?

Legal framework Which are the best legal instruments and incentives to support openness in LLL?

Any other dimension that is missing?

Universal Internet Access

ICT skills for all

Self-regulated learning

Career advice

Participative culture

Multilingual content

Resources adapted to context

Specific OER for LLL users

Common EU OER portal

All learning materials accessible online

Discoverability

Incl

usi

on

Importance Difficulty

Guidance

Peer support

Communities of practice

Self-directed learning

ePortfolios

Prosumers

No change

Modularity

Personalised instruction

Competence-based Assessment

Self-Assessment

Game-based learning

Contextualisation of online courses

Importance of teacher as guide/mentor/career advisor

Fluid learning

Personalised learning ecologies

Personalised combination of courses/modules/resources from different sources

Adapted to learning needs/preferences/paces

Ubiquitous learning: anywhere anytime

Flexibility in rhythms, schedules

Teachers and learners jointly produce and consume content

Ped

ago

gy

Importance Difficulty

Social learning

Co-creation

Subject communities

Official common quality frameworks

University leadership

Social and public rating

No established quality mechanisms

Quality assurance for technical aspects

Success as key indicator

Refinement through use

Common International frameworks

Common standards

EU-wide framework

Cross-sectoral

Same control mechanisms than now

Universities as reference for quality

Peer review

Rating by users

Expert recommendations

Users judge themselves what they find useful

Instructor chooses

Quality measured by output: user satisfaction; performance rates; student numbers etc.

Quality emerges as a result of re-using and re-mixing

Qu

alit

y A

ssu

ran

ce

Importance Difficulty

Interoperability standards

Ambient Intelligence

Internet of things

Semantic web

Easy to use creation tools

Learning Analytics

Automatic Language translation

Augmented Reality

Tech

no

logi

cal E

nab

lers

Importance Difficulty

Big Data

Everyone is producer

Learners are producers

Subject-/Topic communities

Networks

Market forces

Publishers/Experts

Educators/Teachers

Disaggregation

networks of different kind of producers

social production

collaborative production

embedded social production

Pro

du

ctio

n o

f O

ER

Production is something normal everybody does all the time

The learning process is based on learners' production and sharing of content

Importance Difficulty

Fragmentation

Unbundling

Multiple providers

Outsourcing

Public procurement or

For profit

e-Portfolios

Peer recognition

Expert recognition

Institutional certification of informal learning

External certification

Universal credit transfer

Automatic recognition

Open Badges

Endorsement

Rec

ogn

itio

n

Open Badges

Endorsement

Importance Difficulty

Common standards

International Boards

Accreditation by recognised (public/private) bodies

Free competition

Public funding

Institutional funding

Foundation/donation/sponsorship

Crowd-funding

Freemium

Volunteer work coordination

Membership

Re-channelling the funding from publishers to OER

Re-channelling money at institutional level

Micro-donations

Content free, extra services for payment

Wikipedia model

Eco

no

mic

s Importance Difficulty

Open licenses

Legal agreements on global collaboration

What is publicly funded should be publicly available

Creative commons

Legal agreements on EU/international level to facilitate OE

Public domain

Lega

l Fra

mew

ork

Importance Difficulty

What to do? • Read and understand all options listed • Is there:

– Any important issue missing? Add it! – Any issue irrelevant/redundant? Discard it! – Any two issues similar? Merge it! – Any issue ill-defined? Re-phrase it! – …

• Rate each issue on a scale from 0 to 10 on: – "important to achieve by 2030" (0=unimportant; 10=very important)

– "difficult to achieve by 2030" (0=very easy; 10=very difficult)

• Place each issue on the poster (according to the rating) • Fill in the excel sheet (according to the group rating)