Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United StatesUpdated: September 11, 2016
Key Indicatorsover prev. as of:
ÿ ! Real GDP 16.6T N 1.1% 2016 Q2
ÿ ! Unemp. 4.9% 0.0 Aug 2016
ÿ ! Inflation 0.9% H -0.2 Jul 2016
one week one mo.
ÿ ! S&P 500 2,127.81 H -2.0% H -2.2%
ÿ ! DJIA 18,085.45 H -1.8% H -2.2%
ÿ ! Nasdaq 5,125.91 H -1.9% H -1.5%
ÿ ! VIX 17.50 N 29.8% N 45.2%
ÿ ! 2-yr t-bond 0.79 N 0.01 N 0.10
ÿ ! 10-yr t-bond 1.67 N 0.10 N 0.17
ÿ ! Crude oil $45.88 N 6.3% N 10.0%
ÿ ! USD index 90.34 N 0.8% N 0.3%
About the Dashboard
The Macro and Markets Dashboard for the United States isa collection of nearly 100 indicators of the performance ofthe U.S. economy. To assist with cross-sectoral analysis ofmacroeconomic and financial conditions, the dashboard in-cludes thousands of datapoints from dozens of sources.
Dashboard plots follow a uniform design. The line plots showtrends over the past decade, while the horizontal bar plotsdecompose recent developments. The latest value and itsreference period are listed in the bottom left corner of theplot area for line plots. Below each plot is a brief listing of thesource with a link (in blue) to the actual data. Many plotsalso note recent increases and decreases in values.
ECONECON
Contents
About the Dashboard . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Macroeconomic Indicators: Overview . . . . . 2Macroeconomic Indicators: Businesses . . . . 3Macroeconomic Indicators: Households . . . . 4Depository Corporations . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Labor Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Equity Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Money and Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . 11Government and Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Trade and External Sector Indicators . . . . . 16Capital Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Exchange Rate Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Contact
Brian Dew� briandew.wordpress.comR [email protected] @bd econ
Chart of the week
Sharp fall in U.S. inventory of crude oil (millions of barrels)
01-2016
02-2016
03-2016
04-2016
05-2016
06-2016
07-2016
08-2016
09-2016
1,180
1,200
1,220
1,240
Crude oil stocks fell by 14.5 million barrels, or 1.2% during the week of September 2, 2016
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The September 8th petroleum status report showed a sharp drop in crude oil stocks, which are otherwise unseasonably high.
briandew.wordpress.com | bd econ
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Macroeconomic Indicators: Overview
Components of real gross domestic product (GDP) Real GDP growth (annual percent change)
0
5
10
15
Real GDP: 2016 Q2: 16.6T
(Chained 2009 USD, trillion) Real GDP
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
Consumption
Investment
Gov Spend
Net Exports
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
−5
0
510 year moving average
2016 Q2: 1.1%
FRED: GDPC1; GCEC1; GPDIC1; NETEXC; PCECC96 FRED: GDPC1
Gross domestic investment (GDI) Liabilities (annual percent change by sector)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
(annual percent change by sector)
2016 Q2 ∆GDI: -2.0%
Government
Businesses
Households
Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 Q1: Total Debt: 62.4T; as % of GDP: 341.1%
Fed. Gov. State/Loc. Gov. Households
Corp bus. Non-corp. bus.
Total
FRED: Saving and Investment by Sector FRED: Financial Accounts of the United States
Retail sales excluding food (percent change) Inventories to sales ratio
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
101 year moving average
Jul 2016: 1.9%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20161.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
Jun 2016: 1.39
FRED: RSXFS FRED: ISRATIO
| Updated: September 11, 2016 2
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Macroeconomic Indicators: Businesses
ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ISM non-manufacturing business activity index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Aug 2016: 49.4
(>50 improvement; <50 deterioration)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Aug 2016: 51.4
(>50 improvement; <50 deterioration)
Quandl: ISM/MAN PMI Quandl: ISM/NONMAN NMI
Industrial production (IP) index (2012=100) IP index change, major industry groups
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
80
100
120
140
Industrial production
Total capacity
Jul 2016: 104.9
−10 −5 0 5
Utilities
Comp. and electr.
Motor veh. & parts
Food & bev.
Chemicals
Aero. & misc. trans.
Machinery
Fabr. metal
Mining
0.6
2.2
7.1
1.7
0
−0.7
−1.7
−3.3
−9.8
3.5
3
1.8
0.8
0.6
−0.7
−0.8
−2.5
−10.2
July 2016
June 2016
FRED: INDPRO FRED: Industrial Production
Total capacity utilization (percent of capacity) Capacity utilization change, major industry groups
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
65
70
75
80
Jul 2016: 75.9
−10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6 8
Utilities
Chemicals
Motor veh. & parts
Aero. & misc. trans.
Machinery
Comp. and electr.
Food & bev.
Fabr. metal
Mining
0
0.9
5.9
−0.1
−1.8
−1.4
−0.4
−2.7
−8.8
2.8
1.5
0.7
0
−0.9
−1
−1.3
−1.9
−8.5
July 2016
June 2016
FRED: TCU FRED: Capacity Utilization
| Updated: September 11, 2016 3
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Real nonresidential investment Destination of corporate profits (percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
(annual percent change by type)
2016 Q2: ∆ Total nonresidential investment: -1.0%
Structures
Equipment
Intell. Prop
∆Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q2 corporate profit as share of GDP: 10.9%
Retained Earnings Dividends TaxTotal
FRED: Real Private Investment by Type FRED: National Income by Type of Income
Durable goods new orders (annual percent change) Durable goods new orders by category
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−40
−20
0
20
40
New orders:durable goods
Jul 2016: -3.4%
−15 −10 −5 0 5
All other
Comp. & electronics
Metal products
Total durable goods
Appliances
Primary metals
Machinery
Transportation equip.
5.4
1.4
−0.3
−6.7
−5.7
−10.3
−7.1
−12.6
5.3
3.1
1.9
−3.4
−3.6
−4.8
−5.5
−7.9
July 2016
June 2016
FRED: DGORDER FRED: Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey
Macroeconomic Indicators: Households
Personal income (annual percent change by type) Real disposable personal income
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Jul 2016:Total ∆: 1.7%
Wages of employees Proprietors’ income
Rental income Interest & dividends
Transfer receipts
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
10 yearmoving average
2016 Q2: 2.3%
(annual percent change)
FRED: W209RC1; A041RC1; A048RC1; PIROA; PCTR; PI FRED: A067RL1Q156SBEA
| Updated: September 11, 2016 4
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Real PCE on goods by type (annual percent change) Real PCE on services by type (annual percent change)
0 2 4 6 8 10
Recreational
Furnishings
Other nondurable
Other durable goods
All goods
Gas & other energy
Food & Beverage
Clothing
Motor veh. & parts
8.4
6.5
3.9
4.1
2.9
2.5
0.6
1.9
−0.4
9.6
7.3
4.1
3.6
3.6
2.5
2.4
1.7
0
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
0 1 2 3 4
Health care
Food & accomodations
Other services
All services
Recreation
Transportation
Housing & Utilities
Financial and insurance
4.3
3.6
1.7
2.1
2
1.9
0.4
−0.2
4.2
2.6
2.3
2.3
1.5
1.4
1.2
0.1
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
FRED: Real PCE by Major Type of Product FRED: Real PCE by Major Type of Product
Real PCE by category (annual percent change) Personal consumption expenditure (PCE)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−4
−2
0
2
4
2016 Q2: 2.8%
Goods Services excl. housing Housing
Real PCE
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
67
68
69
Jul 2016: 69.4%
(percent of GDP)
FRED: PCE by major type of product Quandl: FRED/PCE / FRED/GDP
PCE on durable goods (percent of GDP) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
7
7.5
8
8.5
Jul 2016: 7.7%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug 2016: 89.8
Quandl: FRED/PCEDG / GDP University of Michigan Survey of Consumers
| Updated: September 11, 2016 5
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
New housing starts (thousands of units) Personal savings rate (percent of disposable income)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jul 2016: 1,211
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jul 2016: 5.7%
FRED: HOUST FRED: PSAVERT
Depository Corporations
Value of bank loans by loan type (percent change) Bank assets by major type (percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
All loans:2016 Q2: 6.7%
Mortgages Comm. & industrial
To individuals Other loans
All loans
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
−4
−6
−8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
All assets:2016 Q2: 5.0%
Loans Cash
Securities Other
All assets
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
Domestic loans and deposits (percent change) Noncurrent loans (share of total loans)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
−5
0
5
10Deposits
Loans2016 Q2:Domestic deposits: 5.8%; Domestic loans: 7.4%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
30-89 days late
≥ 90 days late
nonaccrual status
2016 Q2: 30-89 days late: 0.6%;≥ 90 days late: 0.6%; nonaccrual: 0.9%
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
| Updated: September 11, 2016 6
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Domestic deposits (percent change) Bank liabilities and equity capital (percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q2: All domestic deposits: 5.8%;interest-bearing: 5.4%; noninterest-bearing: 0.4%
Noninterest-bearing Interest-bearing
All deposits
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
−4
−6
−8
−10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q2: Liab. and equity: 5.0%
Deposits Equity capital Other liab.
Liab. and equity
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
Bank income and expense (USD billions) Bank return on equity (ROE)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
2016 Q2: Pretax income: $64.00B
Interest expense Noninterest expense
Interest income Noninterest income
Pretax net income
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
2016 Q2: 9.4%
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Income Statement FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile
Noncurrent rate by loan type Loans to assets ratio by total bank assets
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Real Estate Loans
Total Loans & Leases
Commercial & Industrial
Credit Cards
Agricultural Production
Other Personal Loans
Leases
All Other Loans
Auto Loans
Loans to Banks
2.3
1.6
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0
2.1
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
40
50
60
70
< $100M
$100M–$1B
$1–10B
> $10B
2016 Q2: < $100M: 58.3%;$100M–1B: 66.3%; $1B–10B: 69.0%; > $10B: 46.1%
(percent of loans)
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Loan Performance FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Ratios by Asset Size Group
| Updated: September 11, 2016 7
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Labor Markets
Civilian unemployment rates (U-3 and U-6) Labor force participation rate
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
5
10
15
U3U6
Aug 2016: U3: 4.9%; U6: 9.7%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
62
63
64
65
66
67
Aug 2016: 62.8%
FRED: UNRATE, U6RATE (broader measure–see notes) FRED: CIVPART
Share of unemployed by duration Nonfarm payrolls (monthly percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
10
20
30
40
50
< 5 weeks
5-14 weeks
15-27 weeks
> 27 weeks
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−0.8
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1 year moving average
Aug 2016: +151,000 (0.1%)
FRED: Unemployed persons by duration FRED: PAYEMS
Payroll growth by sector (annual percent change) Payrolls (annual percent change by major category)
−18−16−14−12−10−8−6−4−2 0 2 4
Construction
Educ & Health Serv
Leisure & Hospitality
Prof & Business Serv
Financial Activities
Trade Transp & Util
Other Services
Information
Government
Manufacturing
Mining & Logging
(As of: August 2016 )
2.8
2.8
2.7
2
1.4
1.1
3.1
1.5
−0.3
−15.4
0.7
Services
Goods
Government
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
Goods
Serv.
Gov.
Aug 2016:Goods: 0.2%; Services: 2.2%; Government: 0.7%
FRED: Current Employment Statistics FRED: Current Employment Statistics
| Updated: September 11, 2016 8
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
New jobless claims (weekly, thousands) Real median weekly wage (1982–84 dollars)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
200
300
400
500
600
700
Sep 03, 2016: 259,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
320
330
340
350
2016 Q2: 346
FRED: ICSA FRED: LES1252881600Q
Nominal average hourly wage (annual percent change) Nominal average hourly wages (USD)
1 2 3 4 5
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Prof. & Business Serv.
Manufacturing
Mining & Logging
Educ. & Health Serv.
Trade Transp. & Util.
Other Services
5
4.1
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.5
1.8
1.9
1.3
5.3
3.8
3.4
2.9
2.5
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.1August 2016
July 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201612
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Goods sectors
Service sectors
Aug 2016:Goods-producing: $22.68;Private-service-providing: $21.43
FRED: Average Hourly Earnings FRED: Average Hourly Earnings
Real hourly wages and output (2009=100) Labor share of output (2005=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
95
100
105
Wages
Output
2016 Q2: Wages: 104.5 Output: 106
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
96
98
100
102
104
2016 Q2: 99.7
FRED: COMPRNFB, OPHNFB FRED: FRED/PRS85006173
| Updated: September 11, 2016 9
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Equity Markets
S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
50 week moving average
One day: H -2.5%One week: H -2.0%
Sep 09, 2016: 2,127.81
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
50 week moving average
One day: H -2.5%One week: H -1.9%
Sep 09, 2016: 5,125.91
Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX GSPC FRED: NASDAQCOM
Dow Jones Industrial Average (thousands) ...combined and indexed (2006=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
50 week moving average
Sep 09, 2016: 18,085.45
One day: H -2.1%One week: H -1.8%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
100
150
200
250
S&P
NASDAQ
DJIA
Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX DJI
S&P 500 one year growth forecast by sector S&P 500 dividend yield (percent)
0 5 10 15 20
Consumer Discretionary
Information Technology
Health Care
Industrials
Consumer Staples
Materials
Financials
Utilities
Telecom. Services
Energy As of: Sep 08, 2016
19.8
12.9
11.3
10
8.9
8.7
7.9
5.5
4.8
1.9
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20161.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2016 Q2: 2.10%
S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 growth forecasts (.xls) S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 quarterly data (.xls)
| Updated: September 11, 2016 10
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
CBOE volatility index (VIX) Shiller index of price to earnings ratios
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Sep 09, 2016: 17.5
One day: N 39.9%One week: N 29.8%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
15
20
25
30
Aug 2016: 27.2
CBOE: VIX Quandl: MULTPL/SHILLER PE RATIO MONTH
Money and Interest Rates
Effective fed funds rate Fed excess reserves of depository corporations
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2
4
6
Sep 08, 2016: 0.40%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(USD billion)
Aug 31, 2016: 2,239B
Quandl: FRED/DFF Quandl: FRED/EXCSRESNW
Cash and cash equivalent deposits (M2) Average rate of return on M2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
20
40
60
80
M2
M2 / GDP ratio: Jul 2016: 69.9%
(Percent of GDP)
Checkable deposits
Savings deposits
CDs
Retail money funds
Currency
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Aug 2016: 0.10%
FRED: M2SL; SAVINGSL; (CURRSL + TVCKSSL);(DEMDEPSL + OCDSL); STDSL; RMFSL / GDP Quandl: FRED/M2OWN
| Updated: September 11, 2016 11
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Treasury bond real yield by maturity 2- and 10-year treasury constant maturity rates
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
5-year
10-year
20-year
Sep 09, 2016: 5-year: -0.09%;10-year: 0.17%; 20-year: 0.49%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2-year
10-year
Sep 09, 2016:2yr: 0.79%; 10yr: 1.67%
Quandl: USTREASURY/REALYIELD Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD
Treasury yield spreads Treasury bill and bond yield curve
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−1
0
1
2
3
4
10-year - 3-month
10-year - 2-year
Sep 09, 2016:10yr - 2yr: 0.88%; 10yr - 3mo: 1.32%
3 mo 1 yr 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr
0
1
2
3Five years ago
Year ago
Most recent
Rates as of: Sep 09, 2016
0.350.58
0.79 1.23
1.67
2.05
Quandl: FRED/YIELD - FRED/BILLRATES Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD
AAA corporate bonds (yield) Corporate bonds total return index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
3
4
5
6
7
Sep 08, 2016: 3.36%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Sep 08, 2016: 2,810.70
Quandl: MOODY/DAAAYLD Quandl: ML/TRI
| Updated: September 11, 2016 12
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Merrill Lynch high yield corporate bond index (yield) Merrill Lynch high yield corporate bond index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Sep 08, 2016: 6.28%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
20
Sep 08, 2016: 4.67%
(spread over 10-year treasury)
Quandl: ML/USTRI Quandl: ML/USTRI - USTREASURY/YIELD
Government and Policy
Total public debt by holder (percent of GDP) Economic policy uncertainty index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2016 Q2: Total public debt to GDP: 105.1%
Foreign
Private domestic
Intragovernmental
Federal Reserve Bank
Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
100
150
200
250
Aug 2016: 93.1
FRED: GFDEBTN; FDHBFIN; FDHBFRBN; FDHBPIN Baker, Bloom, and Davis: Economic Policy Uncertainty
Government expenditures and receipts Government expenditures and receipts
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
40
Receipts
Expenditures
Deficit: 2016 Q2: -4.7% of GDP
Deficit
(percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
0
10
20
Exp.Rec.
Expend.: 2016 Q2: 2.7% Receipts: 2016 Q2: 1.3%
(annual percent change)
FRED: GEXPND; GRECPT FRED: GEXPND; GRECPT
| Updated: September 11, 2016 13
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Government current receipts by type Government current expenditures by type
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
(percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Total: 2016 Q2: $5,287 Billion USD; 28.7% of GDP
Tax receipts
Social insurance contrib.
Transfers Income from assets
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
40
Total: 2016 Q2: $6,148 Billion USD; 33.3% of GDP
(percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Consumption
Transfers
InterestSubsidies
FRED: Government Current Receipts and Expenditures FRED: Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
Prices
Consumer price index (CPI) (annual percent change) CPI components (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6All-items CPI
Core CPI
Jul 2016: All-items CPI: 0.9%; Core CPI: 2.2%
−10 −5 0 5
Healthcare
Housing
Other goods & serv
Recreation
Education
Food & Beverage
Apparel
Transportation
Energy
3.6
2.4
1.9
1
1
0.4
0.4
−3.4
−9.2
4
2.4
1.9
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
−4.5
−10.7
July 2016
June 2016
All-items: FRED: CPIAUCSL; Core: FRED: CPIFESL FRED: CPI Indexes
Producer price index, all commodities (PPIACO) PPIACO selected components (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
Jul 2016: -3.4%
(annual percent change)
−15 −10 −5 0
Lumber & Wood
Rubber & Plastic
Metals
Chemicals
All-commod. PPI
Energy
Farm Products
0.4
−1.2
−4
−2.1
−3.8
−13
−9
0.6
−1.4
−1.7
−2.8
−3.4
−11.1
−11.3
July 2016
June 2016
FRED: PPIACO FRED: PPI Indexes
| Updated: September 11, 2016 14
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Oil price (USD per barrel, WTI) PPI growth: metals (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep 09, 2016: $45.88
One day: H -3.7%One week: N 6.3%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
Jul 2016: -1.7%
Quandl: CHRIS/CME CL1 FRED: WPU10
Average sales price for new houses (thousands of USD) FAO food price index (world, 2002–04=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
250
300
350
400
Jul 2016: $355,800
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Aug 2016: 165.6
Quandl: FRED/ASPNHSUS FAO: FFPI
Gold price (USD per ounce) Silver price (USD per ounce)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Sep 09, 2016: $1,335.65
One day: H -0.9%One week: N 1.8%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
10
20
30
40
50
Sep 09, 2016: $19.41
One day: H -2.6%One week: N 3.5%
Quandl: LBMA/GOLD Quandl: LBMA/SILVER
| Updated: September 11, 2016 15
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Trade and External Sector Indicators
Trade weighted dollar indices (1973=100) Indirect exchange rates (USD-CUR)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
60
80
100
120Broad index
Major currencies
Sep 02, 2016: Broad: 121.5; Major: 90.3
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
EUR
GBP
CAD
JPY(100)
FRED: DTWEXM; DTWEXB Quandl: CURRFX/USD(JPY; EUR; CAD; GBP)
Current account balance components (% of GDP) Net international investment position (% of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
2016 Q2: -2.5%
Net goods Net services
Net income Net transfers
Current account balance
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
100
120
140
160
180
Liabilities
Assets
Net IIP: 2016 Q1: -41.2% of GDP
Net IIP
(percent of GDP)
FRED: Foreign transactions in the NIPAs / GDP FRED: U.S. Net IIP / GDP
Imports, Exports, and Trade Balance (USD billion) Trade balance (percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
Jul 2016: Exports: 186.3B;Imports: 225.8B; Balance: -39.5B
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
Jul 2016: -2.6%
FRED: International Trade in Goods and Services FRED: BOPGSTB / GDP
| Updated: September 11, 2016 16
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Net exports of goods (annual percent change) Net exports of services (annual percent change)
−2 0 2 4
Food feed & bev.
Total annual change
Automobiles
Industrial supplies
Other goods
Capital goods
Consumer goods
0.8
−0.5
0.9
−0.8
0.3
−1.5
−0.2
3.6
1.3
0.9
−0.7
−0.7
−0.7
−1.1July 2016
June 2016
−1.5 −1 −0.5 0 0.5
Maint. & repairs
Other business
Government
Telecom
Insurance
Transportation
Travel
Intell. prop.
Financial serv.
Total annual change
0.4
0
0.2
0.1
0.1
−0.4
−0.8
−0.5
−0.6
−1.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
−0.2
−0.5
−0.5
−0.6
−0.7
July 2016
June 2016
FRED: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Census Bureau: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
Capital Flows
Foreign holdings of U.S. securities (percent change) Foreign purchases and sales of U.S. securities
−15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15
Treasury bonds
Agency bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
Treasury bonds
Agency bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
−0.4
−0.6
−2.1
−15.2
−1.4
−0.5
−2.3
−15.4
6.4
11
8.6
−7.9
8.6
11.2
8
−7.5
For
eig
np
riva
teF
orei
gn
offi
cia
l
May 2016
Apr 2016
May 2016
Apr 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Sales
Purch
Net
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Jun 2016: Net purchases: 7.6B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) System Treasury International Capital (TIC) System
U.S. holdings of foreign securities (percent change) U.S. purchases and sales of foreign securities
−12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
−8.4
−7.9
−7.1
−10.9
−6.3
−2.6
−2
−2.1
−5.6
−2.9
−1.4
−6.4
Fin
.se
ctor
No
nfi
n.
sect
or
May 2016 Apr 2016
May 2016 Apr 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Sales
Purch
Net
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Jun 2016: Net purchases: -11.2B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) System Treasury International Capital (TIC) System
| Updated: September 11, 2016 17
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Exchange Rate Table
Indirect exchange rates against the US Dollar ( USD)
Currency Rate11 day
% ch.1 week% ch.
1 month% ch.
1 year
% ch.1 yearhigh
1 yearlow Updated:
EUR 0.890 N 0.33 H -0.65 H -0.38 N 1.15 0.946 0.867 2016-09-09
GBP 0.753 N 0.18 N 0.14 H -1.96 N 14.01 0.776 0.646 2016-09-09
JPY 102.670 N 0.28 H -1.27 N 1.44 H -16.17 123.525 99.988 2016-09-09
CAD 1.304 N 0.86 N 0.38 H -0.11 H -1.61 1.458 1.253 2016-09-09
MXN 18.838 N 0.87 N 1.37 N 2.25 N 12.98 19.150 16.392 2016-09-09
AUD 1.324 N 1.25 N 0.41 N 2.09 H -4.03 1.457 1.281 2016-09-09
CNY 6.664 0.00 H -0.23 N 0.44 N 4.82 6.702 6.308 2016-09-09
CHF 0.975 N 0.31 H -0.35 N 0.12 N 2.27 1.030 0.953 2016-09-09
NZD 1.366 N 1.14 H -0.34 H -0.57 H -7.67 1.562 1.341 2016-09-09
SEK 8.489 N 0.60 H -1.10 N 0.44 N 2.95 8.753 7.965 2016-09-09
NOK 8.251 N 0.76 H -0.79 H -0.23 N 1.65 8.946 8.019 2016-09-09
DKK 6.627 N 0.30 H -0.63 H -0.34 N 0.90 7.058 6.455 2016-09-09
RUB 64.587 N 0.96 H -0.80 H -0.44 N 5.26 82.900 61.188 2016-09-09
HKD 7.755 H -0.02 H -0.01 H 0.00 N 0.08 7.822 7.749 2016-09-09
SGD 1.358 N 0.51 H -0.12 N 1.30 H -1.88 1.444 1.337 2016-09-09
TRY 2.973 N 0.65 N 0.64 N 0.59 N 2.65 3.092 2.796 2016-09-09
KRW 1105.000 N 0.86 H -0.80 N 0.86 H -2.24 1241.130 1090.050 2016-09-09
ZAR 14.386 N 1.80 H -0.66 N 7.55 N 9.05 16.870 13.084 2016-09-09
BRL 3.269 N 1.63 N 0.58 N 4.29 H -18.33 4.175 3.129 2016-09-09
INR 66.760 N 0.35 H -0.04 N 0.03 N 3.09 68.797 64.695 2016-09-09
ILS 3.759 H -0.02 N 0.03 H -1.51 H -1.84 3.975 3.738 2016-09-09
EGP 8.857 0.00 N 0.00 H -0.25 N 10.74 8.927 7.646 2016-09-09
IDR 13058.000 H -0.02 H -1.43 H -0.34 H -3.19 14130.000 12770.000 2016-09-09
THB 34.720 0.00 N 0.35 H -0.03 H -1.43 36.325 34.196 2016-09-09
MYR 4.096 N 0.57 N 0.39 N 2.25 H -1.83 4.420 3.835 2016-09-09
ARS 15.030 0.00 N 0.87 N 2.52 N 36.84 15.815 9.412 2016-09-09
COP 2894.000 N 1.55 H -3.23 H -1.61 N 0.38 3414.000 33.140 2016-09-09
CLP 671.650 N 1.05 N 0.01 N 3.45 H -0.36 732.000 642.000 2016-09-09
Quandl: CURRFX/USD(CUR)
1 The number of units of foreign currency required to purchase one U.S. dollar.
I Contact: Brian Dew | R [email protected] | � briandew.wordpress.com | 7 @bd econ
| bd econ 18
