1European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

Low Cost Carrier MROAviation Week‘s MRO

Wolfgang Kurth19. October 2005

2European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

LCC Market Share in Europe

LCCs and the Future of the Business Model

Drivers of the Business Model

LCCs and MROs

Conclusion

Agenda

3European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

Business EnvironmentV

OLU

ME/G

DP

TIME

Africa

Asia

Middle East

Latin America

PIONEERSTAGE

TRANSITION RAPID GROWTHSTAGE

TRANSITION

U.S. andEurope

MATURESTAGE

GDP

Volume

4European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

For what reason would you fly more often?

11%11%

8%

41%

8%6%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

upgrades schedule safetyground

low fares more FFP´s

safetyboard

others

Source: IATA Online Survey 2003

Low Fares Trigger Demand

5European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

0

50

100

150

200

2001 2003F 2005F 2007F 2009F

Pessimistic

Optimistic

Number of passengers of Ryanair & easyJet at basis of announced capacities

19%

15%

30%

Prediction for the European Low Cost Market

2001E–2009F

Market potential of the GermanLow Cost Segment2001E–2009F

1 Low case: Number of no-frills journeys in Europe reach current UK / Ireland level (0.25 trips / capita) over 8 years (number of passengers = 72MM) 2 High case: Number of no-frills journeys in Europe reach the same level as currently in the U.S. (0.5 trips / capita) over 8 years (number of passengers = 195MM)Source: Analyst Reports, Monitor Analysis

510

16

32

83

21

42

0

25

50

75

100

Total Population

International

Domestic

Estimation formed by the use of US market share & travel frequency to the German population

PAX(m)

PAX(m)

Market potential for European LCCs

6European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

Growth Rates and Market Shares

Europe: annual growth rate p.a. for LCCs, passenger in mio,

7European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

Market Share of European LCCs

8European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

LCC Market Shares by Country

9European MRO Conference, Berlin, 19.10.2005 www.advolar.com ©

Caption:

Ryanair

easyjet

Volareweb

bmi Baby

Hapag-Lloyd Express

Germanwings

Sterling

Skyeurope

jet2

LCC routes 2001