Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar, 1

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Hamburg Sud Colombia y Ecuador

La Geopolitica y las Navieras

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar, 3

La Geopolítica y las Navieras

La Relación entre las Navieras y la Geopolítica:

El estado de la Industria Marítima hoy.

La consecuencia de la Geopolítica y las

Navieras: La Industria Marítima de mañana.

El Impacto de la Geopolítica y las Navieras en el

flujo de Comercio en Colombia

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar, 4

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Development of GDP Growth Projections2015 – 2019F (IMF)

5

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook April 2018

2,42,0

2,7

2,5

2,1

6,9 6,7

6,9

6,6 6,4

-3,5 -3,5

1,02,3

2,5

8,2

7,1

6,7

7,47,8

2,9

1,52,3

2,9 2,7

3,5 3,2 3,8 3,9 3,9

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F

China

India

USA

EU

Brasil

World

2,7 2,3Ø World trade volume

4,9 5,1 4,7

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Global Container Throughput vs. GDP Growth (TEU-to-GDP Multiplier)

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-10%

5%

-5%

0%

10%

20%

15%

2020

F

2019F

2018

F

2017

F

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

GDP multiplier

Global GDP growth %

Container throughput growth %

1990-1999 Avg. Multiplier: 3.4 2000-2008 Avg. Multiplier: 2.6 2010-2016

Avg. Multiplier: 1.4 2017F: 1.7

Source: Alphaliner Newsletter No. 42 – 2017

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Average operating margin Container Carrier* 2011-2017

1

5

3

-1-1

-8

-9

-6-6

-2

2

5

1

3

0

-2

-4

1

-1

-3

-1

5

1

-12

-11

-7

-6

0

Q

4

Q

3

Q

2

Q

1

Q

4

Q

3

Q

2

Q

1

Q

4

Q

3

Q

2

Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1

20162014201320122011 ‘17

*Average of: CMA CGM (incl. APL to 2Q 2016), CSCL (until 1Q 2016), EMC, Hanjin (until Q2 2016), Hapag-Lloyd

(incl. CSAV until 2014), HMM, KL, Maersk, MOL, NYK, WHL, YML, ZIM Source: AXS Alphaliner Newsletter No 14, 2018; Annual Reports

7

2015

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Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Carrier Consolidation – Outlook 2018*

Source: Alphaliner Top 100, April 2018

4,5

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

Capacity in m

TE

U

ZIMPILYang

Ming

Ever-

green

ONEHapag-

Lloyd

CMA

CGM

COSCO

/OOCL*

MSCMaersk

/ HSDG

QASCZhonggu

Logistics

Corp.

KMTCX-Press

Feeders

Wan

Hai

HMM TS

Lines

OrderbookExisting Fleet

9

*The proposed transaction is subject to regulatory approvals

Closing to be

expected June / July

2018

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Cellular Fleet Growth vs. Global Throughput2000-2018F (in %)

10

Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor April 2018

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

10

8

12

24

14

16

18

20

22

6

2

4

0

5,0

17,318,4

2013

20,0

2014

14,3

2009

13,1

2008

12,4

2007

11,0

2006

9,6

2005

8,3

2004

7,3

2010 2012

in m TEU in %

2003

6,7

2002

6,2

2001

5,6

2000 2019F

23,0

16,315,4

2015

22,3

2018F2017

21,1

2016

20,3

201

1

% Annual Cellular Capacity Growth

Fleet Capacity

% Global Throughput Growth

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Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Colombia Contenedores 2017

19

EXPORTS 2.016 2.017 % IMPORTS 2.016 2.017 %

CARTAGENA CO 184.240 195.311 6% CARTAGENA CO 293.010 296.479 1%

BUENAVENTURA 154.472 161.017 4% BUENAVENTURA 434.927 431.093 -1%

BARRANQUILLA 39.030 40.555 4% BARRANQUILLA 70.462 69.444 -1%

SANTA MARTA 59.372 69.506 17% SANTA MARTA 23.741 24.462 3%

Total Export 437.114 466.389 7% Total Imports 822.140 821.478 0%

TOTAL 2.016 2.017 %

CARTAGENA CO 477.250 491.790 3%

BUENAVENTURA 589.399 592.110 0%

BARRANQUILLA 109.492 109.999 0%

SANTA MARTA 83.113 93.968 13%

Total Import & Export 1.259.254 1.287.867 2%

Teus 2.017 2.018

Fruit 127.366 35.247

Resin 70.577 17.780

Coffee 38.885 9.286

Sugar 25.051 6.070

Total 261.879 68.383

Total Mercado 530.053 136.916

% 49% 50%

Countries 2017 IMPORTACIONEXPORTACION TOTAL

ESTADOS UNIDOS 139.641 100.399 240.040

CHINA 214.429 7.991 222.420

BRASIL 66.989 34.196 101.185

MEXICO 72.071 18.062 90.133

CHILE 44.224 32.232 76.456

PERU 20.668 45.748 66.416

BELGICA 18.498 45.329 63.827

ALEMANIA 26.129 13.528 39.657

INDIA 24.017 8.205 32.222

ESPANA 23.626 7.636 31.262

Total Top 10 650.292 313.326 963.618

Grand Total 827.085 530.053 1.357.138

% 79% 59% 71%

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Colombia Indicador Logistico

20

Cartagena, 17 May 2018Liborio Cuellar,

Colombia Logistics Performance 2016

21

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