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Let’s talk about EV
Arthur Wang11/17/2012
Presented by Arthur Wang 2 11/17/12
About Me
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WHY?
Presented by Arthur Wang
4Global Oil & Gas Import Dependency
Unconventional gas will account for about half of the increase in global gas production to 2035, with most of this coming from the United States, Australia and China, according to IEA.
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US Oil & Gas Production
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Oil Price Factor
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Our Options?
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Many Options Exist
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9New Energy Vehicle Required Components
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10The EV Revolution has begun!
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11EVs are Ready for Primetime!
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Tesla’s Big Win Proves EVs Are Ready for Primetime“Electric vehicles have hit the tipping point of mainstream acceptance, and you naysayers just lost your last reason for hating the technology.
MotorTrend magazine’s unanimous decision to name the Tesla Model S its car of the year is more than a big moment for Tesla Motors. It’s a big moment for electric vehicles and, more importantly, internal combustion. The award follows similar nods from Automobile and Yahoo. (Yes, Yahoo does cars.) That only underscores just how good the Model S is, and how solid its underlying technology is. “Source: www.wired.com, 11/13/2012 By Damon Lavrinc
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EV Market Players
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3rd Party Forecast of EV Fleets in Different Regions
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Forecasts are almost useless – they vary widely- Range from 2M to over 20M vehicles in 2020
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Supply Forecasts
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15Worldwide EV OEMs Production Capacity
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16Markets Rarely Grow This Way
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Market Constraints
Total Market Size
Substitutability
Access to Infrastructure
Income Issues
Behavioral Issues
Source: GTM Research
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EV Growth
DRIVERS
Efficiency
Cost Learning Curve
Success of Hybrids
Lower Operating Cost
Climate Risks
Health & Clean Air
DETERRENTS
Range Anxiety
Purchase Price
Political Opposition
Utilities Resistance
Multi-Tenant Living
Infrastructure
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Range Anxiety
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Declining Marginal Value of More Batteries – a very expensive way to avoid Range Anxiety
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COST
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21Key Drivers of EV Operating Costs
Capital, Operating Costs, Fuel, Electricity, Performance, Use, and Financing all impact TCO & will change over time.
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Battery Cycle Costs
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EV Fuel Saving per Gallon
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24Variable Cost of ICEs vs BEVs in USA
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Li-ion Cost Assumption
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26Battery Cost Improvement
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EV Battery Market
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Shakeout
Electric Car Battery Maker A123 Systems Files Bankruptcy
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Technology
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30EV Battery Technology Trend
Key: Lower Cost ($), Higher Energy (Wh) Density, Higher Power (W) Density
Target: Battery pack cost < 25%
of vehicle cost to enable a healthy market growth.
Increase battery cells’ energy & power density.
High Power Density Cell: 可有效提升車輛動力 , 這類電池適用於混合動力車 , 僅需短時間的高功率輸出 ;
High Energy Density Cell: 有助延長電動車續航力 , 特別適用於純電動車 , 需要較高的續航力 , 但對於電池功率較不要求 ;
而兼具高 密度與高能量的電池芯則適用於插電式混合動力車 , 因為這類車款必須兼具高性能與高續航力。
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31Vehicle Powertrain Architecture
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32Battery Management System
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Safety
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Grid & Charging
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V2G
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