Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Latin American Modelling Project, 19 January 2012
EU low-emission development strategy: ‘Roadmap for moving to a competitive low
carbon economy in 2050’
Climate Action - European Commission
2 EU 2020 policy framework
CO2 (Power generation, Industry: steel and iron, cement, lime, ceramics, paper, glass) As of 2012-2013: CO2 (Aluminium, Aviation) CO2, N2O, PFC (chemicals)
CO2 (Buildings, Transport) CH4 (Waste, Agriculture), N2O (Agriculture)
F-gases
CO2 Land use, land use change and forestry
ETS -21% vs. 2005
Non-ETS -10% vs. 2005 27 national targets: -20 to +20%
CO2 Shipping
§ Legally binding: -20% GHG by 2020 (-30% wth. global action) § Renewable sources in EU’s energy mix: 20% by 2020 § Improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 Targets, Framework legislation, Implementing decisions > Impact Assessment
3 Economic analysis - aiming for cost-effective implementation
EU Emission Trading System § 1.74%/yr decreasing cap 2013-2020 § Climate finance source: up to €38 billion/year in 2020 § Limits on CDM/JI credits usable for compliance
Aviation in EU ETS: § Global action ICAO – UNFCCC
§ EU internal flights, inbound/ outbound aviation: Cap from 2013 onwards: 95% 2004-06 emissions, 15% auctioning
§ Potential pass-through to consumers: by 2020, return airline tickets €4.6 (short haul) to €39.6 (long distance transatlantic)
CO2 and cars: 2015: 130 g/km, 2020: 95 g/km
4 Policy assessment – aiming to foster sustainable growth
>> Decoupling: GDP +38% emissions -17.4% (1990 to 2009) >> EU GHG emissions down to 9.2 tCO2eq/cap >> Current energy efficiency policies achieve 10% improvements, more efforts needed >> EU budget: 20%‘climate-oriented’ support for less economically favoured regions, agriculture, fisheries, research and innovation
5
5
Limiting climate change – a global challenge, to take up now
§ Stay below 2°C, our common global objective § Mitigation pledges >> Low-emission development strategies
§ Delaying action, a false economy (IEA) European Council call for 2050 vision: in context global emissions
cut -50% by 2050 wrt. to 1990, how to cut EU emissions -80-95%
6
6
‘Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050’
Not a forecast, but Analysis how to reach the long-term target To inform policy-makers and investors ü Identify cost-effective pathway, intermediate milestones ü Give direction to business, households for long-term investments ü Spot key technologies, to guide R&D ü Understand investments needs and benefits ü Detect opportunities and trade-offs ü Guide EU, national and regional policies
7
7
2050 Roadmap - milestones to a low-carbon competitive economy
>> Long-term outlook key for investments: map out paths to long-term climate goals
§ At least 80% domestic reduction in 2050 feasible § Efficient mitigation pathway: -25% 2020 / -40% 2030 / -60% 2040 § All sectors contribute in different manner
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current policyPower Sector
Residential & Tertiary
Non CO2 Other Sectors
Industry
Transport
Non CO2 Agriculture
8
8
2050 roadmap – investment challenge
§ Add €270 bn/yr domestic investments during 2010-2050 (~1.5% of GDP)
§ Key investments: power sector/industry: €35 bn, transport: €150 bn, buildings/equipment: € 75bn.
§ Benefits fuel savings € 175 to 320 bn/yr on average
§ GDP more secure from energy price shocks
§ Air quality and health benefits: € 27 bn, 2030 € 88 bn, 2050
9
9
Moving to low-carbon economy - sustainable energy challenge
§ Global trends in clean energy investments § Innovation > future competitiveness § Delayed 1$ low-carbon investment > up to 4.3$ additional costs later
§ EU energy security § Saving € 400 billion of EU oil and gas import bill in 2050 ~3%
today’s GDP
Global investments in renewable energy capacity, IEA
Share of EU energy imports in EU energy consumption on the rise, DG ENER
10 Global transition to low-carbon economy – key to sustainable development
§ Global transition - staying below +2°C § Avoid damages, esp. to vulnerable
countries § Less carbon intensive economies § Unlock Sustainable development
§ EU cost-effective trajectory to low-carbon economy
§ Macro-economic benefits from shifting from fuel costs to investment expenditure § Smart revenue recycling: potential up to +1.5 million net job by 2020
GDP and GHG decoupling
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1990
= 1
00%
GDP GHG emissionsDecoupling EU Emissions and GDP along 2050 low-carbon roadmap pathway to 2°C
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1990 2010 2030 2050
Ton
CO
2-eq
per
100
0$ G
DP
World
DevelopedCountriesDevelopingCountriesEU 27
China
Improving carbon efficiency across all economies
11
Methodology: model-based scenario analysis
§ Global scale models § POLES: energy system and industrial emissions § G4M + GLOBIUM: land use (agriculture, forestry)
§ Core scenarios § Baseline § Fragmented action - EU decarbonises, others implement
pledges but carbon price stays stable after 2020
§ Global action - in line with 2°C target, i.e. halving global emissions by 2050, with regional contributions determined on economic grounds (carbon markets)
§ Delayed technologies scenarios (CCS, biofuels)
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2 em
issi
ons
in M
t
Reference (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices) Reference (frag. action, high fossil f. prices)Effect. Techn. (glob. action, low fossil f. prices) Effect. Techn. (frag. action, ref. fossil f. prices)Effect. Techn. (frag. action,high fossil f. prices) Delay. CCS (glob. action, low fossil f. prices)
17%
24%
21% 13%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Industry Transport Households Tertiary
Savings potential 2020 Energy consumption 2020
PRIMES energy model § Technology dynamics (economies of scale, learning by doing) § Vintages, inertia from past structures, pace of capital turnover
Energy model > Integrate with 2050 Energy roadmap Energy efficiency – centre stage
CO2 emission in Buildings sector Reference / Decarbonisation scenarios
§ Varying network load, inter-linked electricity and gas markets § Consumer choices and saturation effects
§ Perceived costs of technology, risk premium
13
Road Transport Energy Mix [Mtoe]Decarbonisation scenario under effective technologies
and global climate action
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mtoe
Other
Electricity
Biofuels
Oil
100%
36%%
13%
25%%
39%%
Aviation Energy Mix [Mtoe]Decarbonisation scenario under effective technologies
and global climate action
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mtoe
100%
58%%
42%%
GLOBIOM-G4M - Global forestry and agriculture
Meat consumption/cap. increase in all scenarios Baseline: decrease in deforestation emissions and increase in agricultural emissions Global action: § Eliminate net global deforestation by 2030 § Increase biomass use for energy as a result of global action on climate change § Efforts to reduce agricultural emissions
Linked transport, Forestry and agriculture models All sectors contribute
14
14
Assumptions behind Global action case
§ Gradual introduction of carbon market/ carbon price signal in all economies § By 2030 all countries except LDCs + India have same carbon price as EU. By 2050 full equalisation. § When carbon prices are equal, cost efficiency on a global scale is achieved.
§ Resulting emission reduction = NOT stating what non-EU target should be (e.g. how much can be achieved through emission trade?). § 2050 roadmap = to inform EU policy debate on domestic emission reductions by 2050, in line with a 2ºC objective, under cost efficient but realistic assumptions
15
Time for sharing experiences on LEDS
World energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario
Restricting the greenhouse-gas concentration to 450 ppm would limit temperature increase to 2⁰C, compared with 3.5⁰C in the New Policies Scenario & 6⁰C in the Current Policies Scenario
65%
33%
71%
28%
15 Gt
7 Gt
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Gt
Current Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
New Policies Scenario
Non-‐OECD OECD
16 Opportunities for sharing LatAm-EU experience
Jimy Ferrer - [email protected] Catherine Ghyoot – [email protected]
17
§ Technical assistance to governments/regional institutions (on their request). § Annual course on socio-economic aspects related to climate change
§ International seminar on results, methodologies, Call for papers.
§ Map Drought/Desertification/Natural Soil Degradation/Regional Hydrologic Balance
Examples EUrocLIMA activities
Review methodologies and data to estimate emissions in National inventories of Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, El Salvador and Uruguay: § Energy Sector: about 10% variations across inventories, Ecuador over 20%. § Up to 100% variations for other sectors: data gap in Agriculture, LULUCF, Waste.
Mexico Case Study: Cross-sectional regressions with micro-data at a household-level, to capture impacts of climate change on income, poverty and inequality.
Pobreza Desigualdad Incidencia Profundidad Severidad Gini
Niveles actuales 38% 0.221 0.193 0.599 Modelos climáticos
HADLEY 49% 0.444 0.598 0.737 PCM 40% 0.254 0.249 0.619 MIMR 48% 0.439 0.586 0.734 Fuente: Estimaciones propias utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional a Hogares Rurales de México (ENHRUM) para el año 2002.
18
Big thanks!
For further information:
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/roadmap2050/
http://ec.europa.eu/climateaction/ [email protected] +32 2 298 7903 +32 498 98 27 70
