PowerPoint Presentation

Large-Scale Political ViolenceMatthew KrainThe College of WoosterJune 14, 2015 Salt Lake City, UT

Opening Slide (introduce self)1

Large-Scale Political ViolenceLSPV & Comp GoPo CurriculumIntroduction (concepts)Sovereignty, Authority, & PowerPolitical InstitutionsCitizens, Society, & the StatePolitical & Economic ChangePublic Policy

Violence is about politics (who gets what & how)

WRONG DEFs: Political Violence ONeil: violence outside of state control (???) that is politically motivatedDrogus & Orvis: the use of violence by nonstate actors (???) for political ends

2Why Use Violence?GrievancesFear, threat Rational, calculated, instrumental Available, opportunity to use arisesInteraction between opponents

Violent clash at Oxford Circus, in London, March 20113Most Important Determinants of Political Violence Regime TypeWeak StateState Resources LowInstitutional StrengthRule of LawCorruptionHistory of ViolenceViolent DynamicsRadicalsExclusionary IdeologyDehumanizationResource Issues

`4Violent Protest

Oaxaca, 2006Mexico City, 2014Top: The Zapoteca indigenous group in Mexico (Oaxaca) violent uprising vs. repression in 2006

Bottom: Protestors clash with police in Mexico City over student massacre, Nov. 20, 2014.

5Repression

Tiananmen, 1989Tibet, todayOf course, governments will also respond to nonviolent protests if they think they are a real threat to them.

This tends to be less true of fully consolidated democracies than other types of less legitimate regimes6Riots

violent spontaneous civilian events

groups challenging policy or hardshipviolent spontaneous civilian events, w/ groups challenging existing policy or hardshipdepends upon who is framing it! On avg. < 1 death per event, low impact re: security

7London Riots, August 2011RiotsRussia Riot Police, December 2012

Participants: marginalized, see selves pursuing justice, not as criminals

Causes: marginalized, grievances (esp. re: indiscriminate application of rule of law), no other outlet rule of law does not work for them!

Dynamics: Government response critical (Wilkinson)

8Communal Conflict Causes divisions do NOT cause conflict!conflicts do not just happen; they are made!based on fear, uncertainty, history of past interactionsleaders manipulate frames conflict

Yoruba man attacked by Hausa man (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)Diversity does not lead to conflict!9Communal Conflict DynamicsCan spiral out of control of leaders who initiate it:hard to stop feeling threatened once fighting has begunconflict reinforces the fear of the other

To stop it, focus on: reigning in agents of violencereducing group demonization threat reduction good governancegrievancesYoruba man attacked by Hausa man (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)

10The Annexation of CrimeaMap of Greater KurdistanIrredentism

effort to reunify a lost territory inhabited by ethnic kin with either a mother country or with other territories also inhabited by ethnic kin (Ayres & Saideman 2014; http://wpo.st/oEQJ0)11Insurgencies

Factors favoring insurgencyState Weakness, CorruptionIndiscriminate RepressionSupport of populationSelf-financing or patronGeography

Baluchi insurgents at a camp in Pakistan's Baluchistan Province (AFP)

An insurgency is a movement, one that usually uses guerrilla tactics.

Guerrilla tactics = mil. strategy: small, mobile gps., hit & run tactics v. better army

Goal: challenge existing government for control of all / portion of territory, or force political concessions in sharing political power.

Dynamics: asymmetrical; requires support of some portion of pop.

Counterinsurgency tactics: when state is WEAK, they are more brutal. Hearts & minds (working w/ the population) works better!12RebellionOpen, organized, armed resistance to governing authority

Usually vs. specific policy, restriction, or requirement

ChiapasRebellion13Civil WarsLarge-scale conflict within same political unitMultiple sovereignty claims

Subcategories by type (control of what?): Wars of Secession or Self-determinationRevolutions

Most frequent type of conflict since 1945!

Death thresholds vary

Ex: UCDP = 25 battle deaths

Different than One-sided violence!14Civil Wars Causes & DynamicsCauses: grievances needed, BUT its more about WEAK states + poverty (of state), repression, hopelessness

Dynamics: start out as movements for reformchange depends upon state reactiondeadly, esp. to civilians caught between sides 15Nigeria: The Biafran War (1967-1970)

Secession / Self-DeterminationAttempt to break from the state, form new sovereign entity

Biafran War was actually a SHORT war:Civil wars dont end quickly (avg. = 10 years)The greater #of factions, the longer civil war tends to last. rebel/govt balance of power likelihood of endingMost end in military victories (75%), not negotiated settlements (25%)Governments win 40% of the time, rebels 35%, rest = settlementSettlements break down often; work when security dilemma is resolvedMust also implement the settlement!16Revolution

overthrow of one system of government and its replacement by a different regime, accomplished by a violent mass uprising (Klesner / Sodaro)X17The Chinese Revolution

Revolutions

Attempt to capture central state apparatus, change old sovereign entity

Revolution from below

Goal: fundamental social, economic &/or political change to the nature of the state (def. based on outcomes!?!)

Causes: Weakened state, poor response to crisis / petition to enter polity

Actors: vanguard; peasants / proletariat; army18Revolutionary Ideology

The importance of Revolutionary ideology?

Scholars: does not explain much about revolutions

DOES help to explain outcomes of revolutions

Usually an exclusionary ideology19Iranian Revolution

revolutionary coalition united AGAINST the old order

Coalition fragments soon afterwards; groups want different things

post-revolutionary repression, consolidation process20Coup dEtat

Military takeover of a government (Drogus & Orvis)

A move in which military forces take control of the government by force (ONeil)

A forceful takeover of state power by the military (Klesner / Sodaro)

XNigeria Gen. Sani Abacha (1993) [Source: https://youtu.be/udxpjUpwC0E]21Coup dEtat

From Ulfelder (2013):(1) force deployed(2) by political insiders(3) chief executive replaced(4) legal procedures not followed Non-military coupsPhilippines rebels led by Sen. Antonio Trillanes (attempted coup)Nepal - Self-coup: Constitutional monarch King Gyanendra suspended the constitution, became head of government (Feb. 05)22Coup dEtat

From Ulfelder (2013):(1) force deployed(2) by political insiders(3) chief executive replaced(4) legal procedures not followed

Animated Map: Coup Attempts Worldwide: 1989-2013 Source: Dart-Throwing Chimp, 11/22/13: http://wp.me/p1domH-1gUCauses: if regime is weak, ineffective, corrupt, or has lost legitimacy

Success: swift, clear political objectives, legitimate

Level of violence used DOES NOT determine success23Terrorism (by non-state actors)politically motivated use of unconventional violence designed to gain publicity, magnify power, instill FEARnon-state actors, outgroups, w/out legitimate status

proximate victims NOT main targetstargets = people/institutions in power, society as a whole

Mostly NOT successful re: stated goalsVERY successful in instilling fear, amplifying power, recruiting, delegitimizing state

London attack, July 2005Hardest thing to teach: terrorism is a tactic, not an ideology or identity

Asymmetrical / similar to insurgencies, guerrilla warfare

Political jujitsu / ironically works in ways similar to NVDA24TerrorismTerrorism (by non-state actors)State terrorismState-sponsored terrorism

Sources:State terrorism graffiti: http://quantitativepeace.com/blog/2014/04/what-is-terrorism.htmlState-sponsored Terrorism cartoon: http://www.ibnlive.com/news/india/neelabh-toons-5-733187.html25

Boko Haram, August 24, 2014ISIS/Daesh 2015

Mass Killing by Non-State Actors26Massacres (by the state)

Nigerian Army vs. Boko Haram, 2014Police in Guerrero, Mexico vs. students, 2014

Massacre by local police of students in the outskirts of Iguala, southern Mexican state of Guerrero October 10, 2014. Source: http://www.newsweek.com/suspected-student-massacre-shocks-violence-weary-mexico-276561

Often the state does not want to be connected to atrocities So they contract out to armed agents who carry them outThink the Janjaweed in Sudan

27Paramilitary Groups

Russian-backed Ukrainian paramilitary group, 2014Nigerian army-backed paramilitary group, 2014Or these guys

The Principal/Agent problem: government can order violence, but cant control how it is carried out28Amnesty International: Torture Allegations, 1995-2005Source: Quantitative Peace, 1/15/14: http://quantitativepeace.com/blog/2014/01/mapping-torture-allegations-using-itt.html

Oh, heres something else the state typically wants to do, but dont want you to know they do

Just about every state (esp. those under threat from insurgents) uses torture

but they differ in their methods!29Torture

Iran 2009

Britain, 2002+?(12/11/14 headline)Torture using Scarring techniques vs. Clean torture

Pic1: 17 year old Iranian protester and torture survivor, 2009 (http://media.salon.com/2009/06/story11.jpg)Pic2: Clean Torture UK complicit in US torture of UK citizen detainees 30