NAROPAL NAIRTNA METSIS

RETNUOC KINORTKELE ONOTRAH id GNARAB

:helO

nidursaN dammahuM 8600014131

nawaiteS ideD 1700014131

:nesoD

TM ,hisgninanteR inupmuM irS .arD

NASURUJ AKITSITATS

MALANAUHATEGNEP UMLI NAD AKITAMETAM SATLUKAF

REBMEPON HULUPES IGOLONKET TUTITSNI

AYABARUS

102 5 NAROPAL NAIRTNA METSIS

RETNUOC KINORTKELE ONOTRAH id GNARAB

:helO

nidursaN dammahuM 8600014131

nawaiteS ideD 1700014131

:nesoD

irS .arD TM ,hisgninanteR inupmuM

AKITSITATS NASURUJ

MALANAUHATEGNEP UMLI NAD AKITAMETAM SATLUKAF

REBMEPON HULUPES IGOLONKET TUTITSNI

AYABARUS

102 5 KARTSBA

ilebmem nairtna irad ialum ,nairtna iapmujnem gnires atik irah irahes napudihek malaD nairtna ,tekit nairtna susak malaD .aynnial igal kaynab hisam nad ,risakid rayabmem tapadini

nanayalep utkaw nad nagnatadek ratna utkaw naklasa nairtna iroet nakanuggnem sisilanaid imak nairtna iroet naparenep iuhategnem kutnU .laisnenopske isubirtsidreb naggnalep

ukalem p ,naitilenep nak id nakanaskalid halet ini naitilene gnabaC kinortkelE onotraHonrakeoS .nlJ hadnI ayajatreK - halada itama imak gnay ,ayabaruS retnuoc ada gnay gnarab

.3 iatnal adap halada naklupmukidgnay ataD metsis malad naggnalep nagnatadek ratna utkawad .naggnalep nanayalep utkaw aguj n lisah iraD ratna utkaw awhab iuhatekid sisilana

naktujnalid tapad aggnihes laisnenopske isubirtsidreb naggnalep nanayalep nad nagnatadekl nagnutihrep nakukalid haleteS .nairtna iroet sisilana kutnu atar uja - nagnatadekatar habasan λ

= 01 gnaro maj rep habasan nanayalep ujal nad = μ 850.7 gnaro maj rep malad gnaro 7 ~ . adap sagutep isroporp kutnU retnuoc irad % 07 rasebes kinortkelE onotraH 3 iatnal id gnarab

.aynajrek utkaw

: icnuK ataK adek ,laisnenopske isubirtsid ,nairtna .nanayalep ,nagnat

ISI RATFAD

LUDUJ NAMALAH ................................ ................................ ...................... .............

KARTSBA ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................

ISI RATFAD ................................ ................................ ................................ .................

RABMAG RATFAD ................................ ................................ ................................ ....

BAB I NAULUHADNEP ................................ ................................ ............................

1.1 gnakaleb rataL ................................ ................................ ...............................

2.1 halasaM nasumuR ................................ ................................ .........................

3.1 naujuT ................................ ................................ ................................ ............

4.1 taafnaM ................................ ................................ ................................ ..........

5.1 nakanugiD gnaY ismusA ................................ ................................ ...............

II BAB AKATSUP NAUAJNIT ................................ ................................ ..................

1.2 nairtnA iroeT nad metsiS rasaD rutkurtS nairtnA ................................ ..........

2.2 isatoN nad igolonimreT ................................ ................................ .................

3.2 Mo nairtnA led etinifnI ................................ ................................ ...................

1.3.2 halmuJ nagned nairtnA metsiS ledoM revreS utaS ..............................

2.3.2 halmuJ nagned nairtnA metsiS ledoM revreS utaS iraD hibeL ...........

P IGOLODOTEM III BAB NAITILENE ................................ ................................ ..

1.3 ataD rebmuS ................................ ................................ ................................ ..

2.3 naitileneP lebairaV ................................ ................................ ........................

3.3 nahaB nad talA ................................ ................................ ..............................

4.3 hakgnaL ajreK ................................ ................................ ...............................

5.3 rilA margaiD ................................ ................................ ................................ ..

VI BAB NAD SISILANA NASAHABMEP

1.4 nairtnA metsiS ledoM ................................ ................................ ....................

2.4 laisnenopskE ijU ................................ ................................ ............................

nagnatadeK ratna utkaW 1.2.4 ................................ ................................ .....

nanayaleP utkaW 2.2.4 ................................ ................................ ................

3.4 nairtnA metsiS satilitU

�

𝜌

� ................................ ................................ ............

4.4 saguteP satilibaborP / revreS ruggnagneM ................................ ......................

5.4 ataR - naggnaleP halmuJ atar ................................ ................................ ..........

1.5.4 ataR - naggnaleP halmuJ atar d nairtnA mala ................................ ........

2.5.4 ataR - naggnaleP halmuJ atar d etsiS mala m ................................ ..........

6.4 ataR - uggnuneM utkaW atar ................................ ................................ ...........

1.6.4 ataR - ar nairtnA malaD uggnuneM utkaW at ................................ ........

2.6.4 ataR - metsiS malaD uggnuneM utkaW atar ................................ ..........

NAD NALUPMISEK V BAB NARAS

1.5 nalupmiseK ................................ ................................ ................................ ..

2.5 naraS ................................ ................................ ................................ ............

AKATSUP RATFAD

NARIPMAL

RABMAG RATFAD

1.2 rabmaG nairnA metsiS ................................ ................................ ..........................

2.2 rabmaG ledoM elgniS revreS esahP elgniS , ................................ ...........................

3.2 rabmaG ledoM elgniS revres esahp itluM , ................................ .............................

4.2 rabmaG ledoM itluM revreS esahP elgniS , ................................ ...........................

5.2 rabmaG ledoM itluM revreS esahP itluM , ................................ ............................

1.3 rabmaG margaiD nairtnA naropaL nataubmeP rilA ................................ ..............

1.4 rabmaG ayajatreKkinortkelE onotraH gnaraB retnuoC id nairtnA metsiS ledoM

3 iatnaL hadnI ................................ ................................ .........................

2.4 rabmaG tolPytilibaborP utkaW nagnatadeK ratnA naggnaleP gnaraB retnuoC id

3 iatnaL hadnI ayajatreK kinortkelE onotraH ................................ ........

rabmaG 3.4 tolP ytilibaborP nanayaleP utkaW onotraH gnaraB retnuoC id

3 iatnaL hadnI ayajatreK kinortkelE ................................ ......................

I BAB NAULUHADNEP

1.1 gnakaleB rataL

nairtnA naggnalep irad uggnut sirag utaus halada gnay naktapadnem nigni

nanayal irad revres )nayalep( . t nairtnA idajre nakgnades naggnalep nahibelek anerak

naupmamek revres utnetret utkaw malad ihunemem upmam kadit . usak hotnoC s

atik gnires gnay nairtna iapmuj id nairtna halada tekit naktapadnem kutnu tekol naped

aj utnip adap ,poksoib tekit uata ipa aterek adap ,lot nal rellet knab , ecivres remotsuc

knab .tekramrepus risak adap , ,tubesret nairtna halasaM nagned sisilanaid tapad

nairtna iroet tubesid gnay sitametam nagnutihrep ratna utkaw tarays nagned ,

lep a lep naktapadnem nad nairtna metsis malad kusam naggn nanaya revres

laisnenopske isubirtsidreb .

iuhategnem kutnU naparenep nairtna iroet gnusgnal araces nakukalem imak

natamagnep nairtna metsis “ id retnuoC gnaraB 3 iatnal adap id onotraH akinortkelE

onrakeoS .rI .nlJ .” gnep halada nakirebid gnay nanayal asaJ nad gnarab nalibma

.gnarab nakecegnep ini natamagnep adaP ,naggnalep nagnatatadek utkaw tatac id

ianayalid iaseles naggnalep utkaw aguj nad inayalid ialum naggnalep utkaw

.)gnarab naktapadnem( natamagnep lisaH tubesret ayntujnales nagnutihrep nakukalid

tam sitame iuhatekid tapad aggnihes atar - adap gnatad gnay naggnalep halmuj atar

id nairtna metsis retnuoc inayalid tapad gnay naggnalep halmuj nad utkaw nautas rep

revres gnatad gnay tubesret gnarab utkaw nauatas rep atar ,naggnalep halmuj atar atar

utkaw atar .nanayalep tapadnem kutnu naggnalep nakulrepid gnay

2.1 halasaM nasumuR

iagabes halada sisilana kutnu nauca iagabes nakanugid gnay halasam nasumuR

.tukireb

.1 irad nairtna metsis ledom anamiagaB gnarab nalibmagnep ?

.2 hakapA nairtna metsis irad nanayalep utkaw nad nagnatadek ratna utkaw

gnarab nalibmagnep akinortkelE onotraH id hadnI ayajatreK ?

.3 adap nairtna metsis satilitu anamiagaB retnuoc b ( gnara b nalibmagnep id )gnara

hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH ?

.4 satilibaborp apareB /nayalep revres retnuoc b b nalibmagnep( gnara id )gnara

hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH ? ruggnagnem

.5 apareB r ata -r ata j halmu nalep nagg d mala a nad nairtn s metsi adap nalibmagnep

id gnarab retnuoc gnarab hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH ?

.6 B apare r ata -r ata utkaw naggnalep adap metsis nad nairtna malad id nalibmagnep

id gnarab retnuoc gnarab hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH ?

3.1 naujuT

nataigek malad iapacid naka gnay naujut akam ,halasam nasumur nakrasadreB

.tukireb iagabes utiay ,ini mukitkarp

.1 dom iuhategneM naggnalep nairtna metsis le retnuoC nalibmagneP( gnaraB

id )gnaraB hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelE onotraH gnarab libmagnem naka gnay

.ileb akerem halet gnay

.2 nagnatadek ratna utkaw iuhategneM nanayalep utkaw naggnalep retnuoC

id )gnaraB nalibmagneP( gnaraB raH ayajatreK akinortkelEonot

hadnI ske isubirtsidreb .kadit uata laisnenop

.3 adap nairtna metsis satilitu iuhategneM retnuoC )gnaraB nalibmagneP( gnaraB

id hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH .

.4 sagutep satilibaborp iuhategneM retnuoC id )gnaraB nalibmagneP( gnaraB

hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH .ruggnagnem gnay

.5 atar iuhategneM -r ata j halmu naggnalep d mala a nad nairtn s metsi adap

id gnarab nalibmagnep retnuoc gnarab hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH .

.6 ihutagneM r ata -r ata naggnalep utkaw adap metsis nad nairtna malad id

id gnarab nalibmagnep retnuoc gnarab hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH

4.1 taafnaM

nakukalid halet gnay naabocrep nakukalem irad helorepid tapad gnay taafnaM

nairtna iroet pesnok nad naitregnep imahamem tapad halada nad tapad nakiaseleynem

tapad aggnihes nairtna iroet nakanuggnem ini naabocrep irad halasam nasumurep

irahes napudihek malad aynnaktaafnamem - .irah

5.1 nakanugiD gnaY ismusA

: halada ini susak malad nakanugid gnay ismusA

.1 revreS .patet itamaid gnay

.2 t naggnalep isalupoP .utas rep utas abit naggnalep nad )etinifni( satabret kadi

.3 M nairtna metsis ledo reb ayn kutneb itluM revreS - esahP elgniS .

II BAB

AKATSUP NAUAJNIT

1.2 nad nairtnA iroeT metsiS rasaD rutkurtS nairtnA

sirag uata nairtna irad akitametam iduts taumem nairtna iroeT anamid ,uggnut

ada uggnut sirag l gnarakes naatnimrep anerak idajret gnay mumu anemonef utaus ha

id kutnu l em inaya l id kutnu gnarakes satisapak ihibe l inaya ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR(

)1102 .

b nakismusaid nairtna metsis rasad rutkurtS itukignem nairtna metsis awha

tubesid gnay nanayalep asaj nakulremem gnatad gnay naggnaleP“ tupni .”rebmus uata

naggnaleP - naggnalep nagned gnubagreb nad nairtna metsis kusam tubesret naggnalep -

anamid ,inayalid kutnu uggnunem gnades gnay nial gnay naggnalep utkaw adap

naggnalep utnetret - ,inayalid kutnu hilipid tubesret uggnunem gnades gnay naggnalep

nakgnades ,nairtna nilpisid nagned tubesid ini inayalid kutnu naggnalep hilimem arac

uata nayalep iagabes tubesid naggnalep inayalem gnay revres ggnalep haleteS . na

nagned tubesid uata metsis irad raulek naggnalep akam ,inayalid iaseles

tuptuo . )1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR( .

tapad nairtna metsis ledom rabmag aynsalej hibel kutnU 1.2 rabmaG adap tahilid

.ini hawabid

1.2 rabmaG nairtnA metsiS

halitsi naksalejid tapad 1.2 rabmaG tahilem nagneD - nakanugid gnay halitsi

opal malad :nial aratna ,ini nar

1.1.2 ( rebmuS tupnI )

( rebmuS I tupn atad gnay naggnalep halada isalupop aguj tubesid ) atnim kutnu gn

adap irad narukU .nanayalep asaj tupni asaj atnim gnay naggnalep halmuj halada

nakismusaid nakusam uata rebmuS .utkaw ek utkaw irad nanayalep etinif uata etinifni ,

aggnihes tupni .satabret kadit uata satabret aguj tubesid hibel huaj nagnutihrep aneraK

susak kutnu hadum etinifni ismusa akam , etinifni naruku akij nakanugid gnires

NAIRTNA

REVRES rebmuS

tupnI

narauleK

uptuO t

tupni fitaler ( rebmus irad mumu ismusA .raseb tupni nad nossiop sesorp itukignem )

ke isubirtsidreb nairtna metsis ek naggnalep nagnatadek ratna utkaw anamid laisnenops

.modnar araces idajret nairtna metsis kusam kutnu nagnatadek & hisgninanteR(

)1102 ,hamahrI .

2.1.2 nairtnA

naggnalep uata ,uggnut sirag aguj tubesid nairtnA - ,irtna gnades gnay naggnalep

malad inayaliduggnunem kutnu naknijiid gnay mumiskam naggnalep halmuj utiay

s nairtnA.nairtna metsi etinif gnay naggnalep utiay ,satabret nairtna gnajnap aynitra

tsis malad adareb .aynhalmuj isatabid nairtna me )1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR(

3.1.2 nairtnA nilpisiD

arac halada nairtnA nilpisiD revres .inayalid kutnu nairtna atoggna hilimem

tukireb iagabes halada nairtna nilpisid hotnoC eR( )1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninant :

.a uluhad hibelret inayalid gnay ,amatrep gnatad gnaY devreS tsriF emoC tsriF

)OFIF( tuO tsriF nI tsriF / )SFCF( gnires gnilap gnay ini nairtna nilpisiD .

irahes napudihek malad nakanugid - .irah

.b gnay nairtna atoggna ,satiroirP hibelret inayalid naka iggnit satiroirp iaynupmem

.uluhad

.c kutnu amas gnay natapmesek iaynupmem nairtna atoggna aumes ,modnaR

.ulud inayalid

.d uluhad hibelret inayalid naka gnay ,rihkaret gnatad gnaY tuO tsriF nI tsaL

)OFIL( hanrep kadit ripmah ini nilpisiD . irahes napudihek malad nakanugid -

.irah

4.1.2 nanayaleP

.nanayalep sesorp hibel uata utas taumem tapad nairtna metsys malad nanayaleP

aguj tubesid ini nanayalep sesorP esahp utas taumem nanayalep sesorp paites anamid ,

revres .hibel uata revreS lada nanayalep uata gnay nisem nuputa gnaro kiab udividni ha

helo nakulrepid gnay utkaW .nairtna atoggna adapek nanayalep asaj nakirebmem naka

revres anamid ,nanayalep utkaw iagabes tubesid nairtna atoggna utas inayalem kutnu

NAIRTNA

ubirtsidreb nakismusaid nanayalep utkaw isubirtsid .laisnenopske is & hisgninanteR(

)1102 ,hamahrI .

tapadret nairtna metsis iroet malaD :utiay ,nanayalep ledom rutkurts tapme

.a elgniS revreS , S elgni esahP

2.2 rabmaG ledoM elgniS revreS - P elgniS esah

elgniS revreS P elgniS , esah utas ada aynah tubesret nairtna metsis malad aynitra

revres .nanayalep sesorp ilak utas inayalid aynah naggnalep paites nad

.b elgniS revreS P itluM , esah

3.2 rabmaG ledoM elgniS revreS - M itlu P esah

elgniS revreS P itluM , esah utas ada aynah tubesret nairtna metsis malad aynitra

revres .nanayalep sesorp ilak utas irad hibel inayalid naggnalep paites nad

.c itluM revreS , S elgni P esah

G 4.2 rabma ledoM itluM revreS - P elgniS esah

itluM revreS elgniS , P esah irad hibel ada tubesret nairtna metsis malad aynitra

utas revres .nanayalep sesorp ilak utas inayalid aynah naggnalep paites nad

.d itluM revreS , PitluM esah

5.2 rabmaG ledoM M itlu revreS - M itlu P esah

itluM revreS , PitluM esah tubesret nairtna metsis malad aynitra iaynupmem hibel

utas irad revres .nanayalep sesorp ilak utas irad hibel inayalid naggnalep paites nad

2 tuptuO

REVRES 1

REVRES 2

NAIRTNA

REVRES rebmuS

tupnI

narauleK

uptuO t

REVRES REVRES 2 tupnI rebmuS

tupnI 1

narauleK

uptuO 2 t

NAIRTNA

REVRES 2

REVRES 3

REVRES 1 rebmuS narauleK

tuptuO tupnI

REVRES 1

REVRES 2

narauleK

tuptuO

rebmuS

tupnI

1 tuptuO

2 tupnI

5.1.2 ( narauleK tuptuO )

( narauleK O tuptu anerak nairtna metsis irad raulek gnay naggnalep halada )

.pakgnel araces nanayalep naktapadnem iaseles hadus )1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR(

2.2 isatoN nad igolonimreT

malaD ada nairtna metsis aparebeb nad igolonimret utiay ,nakanugid gnay isaton

:tukireb iagabes

.a

𝑁

�

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� J : t utkaw adap nairtna metsis malad naggnalep halmu

.b

𝑛𝑃

�

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� tapadret satilibaborP: n utkaw adap nairtna metsis malad naggnalep t

.c

𝑠 :J halmu revres .lellarap)nanayalep satilisaf(

.d λn : L atar nagnatadek uja - gnatad gnay nairtna metsis adap naggnalep atar

utkaw nautasrep

.e

1

𝜆 : utkaW utaus aratna hisiles utiay utkaw nautas repnagnatadek ratna

ayntukireb angnatadek nagned nagnatadek

.f

𝜇

𝑛 : L atar nanayalep uja - y naggnalepnairtna metsis adap atar rep inayalid gna

utkaw nautas

.g

1

𝜇 nakulrepid gnay utkaw utiay , utkaw nautas rep nanayalep utkaW : revres

naggnalep utas inayalem kutnu

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.i

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𝑞 atar( nairtna malad naggnalep halmuj isatkepske utiay nairtna gnajnaP : - atar

j )irtna gnades gnay naggnalep halmu

.j

𝐿 atar( nairtna malad naggnalep halmuj isatkepske : - naggnalep halmuj atar

)inayalid gnades gnay nad irtna gnades gnay

.k

𝑊 atar( nairtna metsis malad uggnunem utkaw isatkepske : - gnay utkaw atar

nad nairtna malad nakulrepid )nanayalep

.l

𝑊

𝑞 atar( nairtna malad uggnunem utkaw isatkepske : - nakulrepidgnay utkaw atar

)nairtna malad uggnunem

)1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR(

3.2 Mo nairtnA led etinifnI

gnajnap nagned nairtna ledom nakanugid ,ini ilak naitienep malaD etinifni ,

utkaw nad ,nossiop isubirtsidreb nairtna metsis ek naggnalep nagnatadek anamid

nakataynid tapad ini macames nairtna ledoM .laisnenopske isubirtsidreb aynnanayalep

obmys kutneb malad takgnit nakkujnunem M amatrep lobmys anamid I/I/s/M/M l

isubirtsidreb nanayalep utkaw audek gnay M ,nossiop isubirtsidreb gnay nagnatadek

halmuj nakkujnunem s lobmys ,laisnenopske revres nakkujnunem I tapmeek lobmys ,

isalupop rebmus etinifni atabret kadit( gnajnap nakkujnunem I rihkaret lobmys nad ,)s

nairtna etinifni .)satabret kadit( atar awhab nakismusagnem ini nairtna ledoM - ujal atar

atar nad nagnatadek - natsnok nanayalep ujal atar . )1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR( .

1.3.2 metsiS ledoM halmuJ nagned nairtnA revreS )I/I/1/M/M( utaS

naggnalep nagnatadek awhab nakkujnunem )I/I/1/M/M( nairtna metsis ledoM

,laisnenopske isubirtsidreb nagnatadek ratna utkaw nagned nossiop sesorp itukignem

halmuj ,laisnenopske isubirtsidreb nanayalep utkaw res rev rebmus atres ,1 kaynabes

( isalupop tupni λ anamid ,satabret kadit ayntafis nairtna gnajnap nad ) n utnu λ = k = n

nad …,2,1,0 μn μ = kutnu n …,2,1 =

metsis malad id n ada satilibaborp ,ecnalab naamasrep nakanuggnem nagneD

:nagned naksumurid

P

𝑛

� �

𝜆

𝜇�

𝑛

P

0

�

ρ

𝑛

P

𝑛 )1.2(

anamid

𝑃

0

�

1

1

+∑

𝜌

𝑛

∞

𝑛

=

1

� (∑

𝜌

𝑛

∞

𝑛

=

0 )

−

1

� �

1

1

−

𝜌�

−

1

�

1-

𝜌 )2.2(

aggnihes

P

𝑛 1( = -

𝜌

�

𝜌

𝑛 ; kutnu n ...,2,1,0 = )3.2(

ayntabikA

𝐿 = �

𝜌

1

−

𝜌� = �

𝜆

𝜇

−

λ� )4.2(

: awhab helorepid amas gnay arac nagneD

𝐿

𝑞 = ∑ (

𝑛

�

1)

�

λ

2

𝜇

�

𝜇

−

λ

�

∞

𝑛

=

1 )5.2(

𝑊 =

1

𝜇

−

λ )6.2(

𝑊

𝑞 =

λ

𝜇

�

𝜇

−

λ

� )7.2(

)1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR(

2.3.2 halmuJ nagned nairtnA metsiS ledoM revreS )I/I/s/M/M( utaS iraD hibeL

isubirtsidreb nagnatadek ratna utkaw awhab nakkujnunem ini ledoM

halmuj ,laisnenopske isubirtsidreb nanayalep utkaw ,laisnenopske revres kaynabes s ,

λ anamid ,satabret kadit tafisreb nairtna gnajnap nad isalupop rebmus atres n nad λ = μ n

μ = kutnu n 3,2,1 = … ,

𝑃

0

�

1

∑�

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0 akij aggniheS

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:helorepid amas gnay arac nagneD

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)1102 ,hamahrI & hisgninanteR(

III BAB

NAITILENEP IGOLODOTEM

1.3 ataD rebmuS

gnay atad rebmuS .remirp atad halada nakanugid gnay atad ini mukitkarp adaP

irah adap nairtna natamagnep lisah irad helorepid nineS , 5102 lirpA72 lukup 17 3. 0-

81 .10 BIW lukup 5102 lirpA 92 ,ubaR nad id ,hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH

gnay id adareb laJ na C53 onrakeoS .H .rI .ayabaruS ,

2.3 naitileneP lebairaV

atar utiay nairtna natamagnep malad naitilenep lebairav aparebeb tapadreT - atar

ratna utkaw ,sabeb lebairav iagabes nairtna metsis malad naggnalep halmuj

utkaw nad nairtna metsis adap nagnatadek iagabes nairtna metsis adap nanayalep

.lortnok lebairav nairtna metsis adap itama imak imak gnay inisiD retnuoc id gnarab

nad ,hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelE onotraH 3 iatnal revres halada itama imak gnay

aumes revres aynah aynisilana kutnu numan , revres as 1 .aj

3.3 nahaB nad talA

malad nakanugid gnay nahab nad talA nakajregnem nad natamagnep nakukalem

nairtna naropal .tukireb iagabes halada

.1 natamagnep rabmeL

.2 nagnat maJ

.3 )lisnep nad nioplob( silut talA

4.3 hakgnaL ajreK

hakgnaL ajrek malad nakukalid gnay naropal nakajregnem nad natamagnep

.tukireb iagabes halada nairtna

.1 halasam naksumureM mukitkarp kutnu natamagnep tapnet nakutnenem utiay

itamagnem imak ini ilak naairtna retnuoc kinortkelE onotraH id 3 iatnal gnarab

ayabaruS ,hadnI ayajatreK

.2 eM aklupmugn nak metsis adap natamagnep nakukalem gnusgnal nagned atad

gnay naggnalep nagnatadek ratna utkaw halada tatacid gnay tubesret nairtna

utkaw aguj nad inayalid naggnalep aynialum lawa utkaw ,metsis malad kusam

em gnay gnarab tapadnem ( inayalid iaseles naggnalep ) ileb aker

.3 tekap ukub nagned rutaretil iduts nakukalem ayntujnaleS

.4 atamagnep lisah atad halogneM hadus gnay nairtna iroet nakanuggnem nagned n

.nakrajaid

.5 natamagnep lisah atad sisilanagneM

.6 natamagnep lisah atad nakisaterpretnigneM

.7 em nad nalupmisek kiraneM naras nakirebm

.3 5 rilA margaiD irad ialum ,ini naropal nataubmep nanalajrep rula nakrabmaggnem rila margaiD

rila margaiD .naras nad nalupmisek nairebmep aggnih halasam nasumurep sesorp

iagabes halada ini naropal malad iakapid gnay tukireb

erehtxetruoY erehtxetruoY

natamagnep lisah atad nakisaterpretnigneM

natamagnep lisah atad naklupmugneM

rutaretil idutS

natamagnep lisah atad halogneM

halasam naksumureM

natamagnep lisah atad sisilanagneM

naras nakirebmem nad nalupmisek kiraneM

iaseleS

iaseleS

1.3 rabmaG nairtnA naropaL nataubmeP rilA margaiD

VI BAB

NAD SISILANA NASAHABMEP

1.4 nairtnA metsiS ledoM

ayniatnal paites nad iatnal 3 tapadret ini onrakeoS .nlJ kinortkelE onotraH iD

ikilimem retnuoC paites ,gnaraB retnuoc 2 ikilimem revres naitilenep imak aggnihes ,

id nairtna metsis itamagnem aynah imak retnuoc ledoM .ajas 3 iatnal adap gnarab

isaton nagned silutid tapad aynnairtna metsis I/I/2/M/M( nairtna metsis ledoM .)

I/I/2/M/M( nakkujnunem ) whab a isubirtsidreb naggnalep nossiop ratna utkaw nagned

isubirtsidreb nagnatadek laisnenopske isubirtsidreb nanayalep utkaw , laisnenopske ,

halmuj revres kaynabes 2 ( isalupop rebmus halmuj atres , tupni nairtna gnajnap nad )

( satabret kadit ayntafis etinifni ) 2 nairna susak malaD . revres awhab nakismusaid

paites revres aynah imak inisid aggnihes amas gnay nanayalep takgnit ikilimem

nakanuggnem revres aynsisilanagnem malad 1 . ad tubesret nairtna ledoM tap

tukireb iagabes nakrabmagid :

1.4 rabmaG ledoM kinortkelE onotraH gnaraB retnuoC id nairtnA metsiS

3 iatnaL hadnI ayajatreK

2.4 ijU laisnenopskE

surah nanayalep utkaw nad nagnatadek ratna utkaw ,nairtna susak sisilana adaP

tapad aggnihes nahurulesek atad ilikawem asib kutnu laisnenopske isubirtsidreb

nakanuggnem laisnenopske isubirtsid naijugneP .nairtna iroet nagned sisilanaid

.batinim ugnep malaD takgnit nakanuggnem ini laisnenopske isubirtsid naij

.)%5 = α( %59 naayacrepek

REVRES 2

NAIRTNA rebmuS

tupnI tuptuO

narauleK 1 REVRES

1.2.4 nagnatadeK ratna utkaW

,kadit uata laisnenopske isubirtsidreb nagnatadek ratna utkaw iuhategnem kutnU

nagned nakecegnep nakanugid tolp ytilibaborp nakanuggnem nagned , m batini .

nagnatadek ratna utkaw kutnu batinim nakanuggnem sisilana lisah ini tukireB

.nairtna metsis malad naggnalep

1001010,1

99

90807060504030

20

10

5

32

1

Waktu Antar Kedatangan

Perc

ent

Mean 6N 17AD 1,622P-Value 0,148

Exponential - 95% CIProbability Plot of Waktu Antar Kedatangan

2.4 rabmaG tolPytilibaborP utkaW K ratnA nagnatade naggnaleP

hadnI ayajatreK kinortkelE onotraH gnaraB retnuoC id 3 iatnaL

nakrasadreB tolp ytilibaborp 2.4 rabmag ialin iuhatekid tapad P- eulav 1.0 rasebes 84 α .

ialin aggnihes ,50.0 rasebes nakanug atik gnay P- eulav m 50.0 > tapad aka

utkaw awhab naklupmisid nairtna metsis id naggnalep nagnatadek ratna retnuoc

gnarab aH snenopske isubirtsidreb onotr .lai

2.2.4 utkaW nanayaleP

kutnU ana id tapad nairtna iroet nakanuggnem sisil surah aguj nanayalep ratna

nakapurem ini tukireB .laisnenopske isubirtsidreb tolp ytilibaborp utkaw irad

id naggnalep nanayalep retnuoc .onotraH gnarab

1001010,1

99

90807060504030

20

10

5

32

1

Waktu Pelayanan

Perc

ent

Mean 8,5N 10AD 0,456P-Value >0,250

Probability Plot of Waktu PelayananExponential - 95% CI

3.4 rabmaG tolP ytilibaborP nanayaleP utkaW gnaraB retnuoC id

3 iatnaL hadnI ayajatreK kinortkelE onotraH

3.4 rabmag adaP irad ialin tahilid tapad sataid P- eulav > rasebes aynalin gnay

es IC nakanuggnem patet imak nad ,052.0 aggnihes ,) 50.0 = α ( % 59 raseb

ialin naktabikagnem P- eulav 50.0 irad > nanayalep utkaw awhab naklupmisid tapaD .

id retnuoc isubirtsid ikilimem ini onrakeoS .nlJ id akinortkelE onotraH gnarab

.laisnenopske

3.4 nairtnA metsiS satilitU

�

𝝆

�

isroporp nakapurem metsis satilitU revres inayalem uata ajrekeb revres ialiN .

takgnit helo ) λ ( nagnatadek takgnit irad naigabmep irad tapadid metsis satilitu irad

.tukireb iagabes halada µ nad λirad ialiN .) µ ( nanayalep

irad helorepid λ ialiN

1

𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑟

𝑢𝑡𝑘𝑎𝑤

𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑛𝑎

𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑘.rasebes aynalin aggnihes ,

nagnatadek ratna utkaw latoT = 201 tinem

naggnalep halmuJ = 71 naggnalep

ataR - nagnatadek ratna utkaw atar =

201

71 = 6 naggnalep/tinem

λ ialin aggniheS =

1

6

�

0

,

7661 01 ~ tinem/naggnalep

maj/naggnalep

es utkaw malad ,aynitrA - gnatad gnay naggnalep atar atar maj irtnagnem kutnu

ileb akeem halet gnay gnarab naktapadnem es kaynab .gnaro 01

irad helorepid µ ialin nakgnadeS

1

𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑟

𝑢𝑡𝑘𝑎𝑤

𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑦𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑝.rasebes aynialin aggnihes ,

id nanayalep utkaw latoT revres 1 tinem 58 =

id inayalid gnay naggnalep halmuJ revres 1 naggnalep 01 =

ataR - id nanayalep utkaw atar revres 1 =

58

01 naggnalep/tinem 5.8 =

µ ialin aggniheS revres 1 =

1

8

.

5

�

0

,

6711 tinem/naggnalep 7 ~

maj/naggnalep

p aynitrA adap inayalid gnay naggnale retnuoc id gnarab revres maj paites 1 - ayn

bes .gnaro 7 kayna

:tukireb iagabes helorepid satilitu ialin aggniheS

807.06711.02

7661,0xs

awhab iuhatekid tapad tubesret atad irad tahiliD revres retnuoc adap gnarab

3 iatnal id akinortkelE onotraH nalibmagnep inayalem gnay ayabaruS ,hadnI ayajatreK

naggnalep helo ilebid halet gnay gnarab rasebes aynmetsis satilitu naktapadid 0.7 80 .

aneraK d asib akam 6,0 > awhab nakataki revres esatnesorp iaynupmem tubesret

aynajrek utkaw irad %07 rasebes kubis

4.4 saguteP satilibaborP / revreS ruggnagneM

retnuoc saguteP id gnarab onotraH hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelE ayabaruS , id

3 iatnal kutnu irtnagnem gnay naggnalep ada kadit akij aynah nad akij ruggnagnem

gnay gnarab libmagnem ileb akerem halet gutep aynidajret nanikgnumek aynraseB . sa

utiay ruggnagnem

𝑃

0

1

∑�

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7071,0044.37614.11

1

)807.0(1(!2)7614.1(

!1)7614.1(

!0)7614.1(

1210

oP

sagutep satilibaborp awhab naktapadid sataid nagnutihrep lisah iraD retnuoc

gnarab onotraH nI ayajatreK akinortkelE had ayabaruS , 3 iatnal id aumes ruggnagnem

rasebes 0. 71 70 .

.tukireb iagabes gnutihid ajrekeb revres sagutep 1 ada satilibaborp nakgnadeS

𝑃

1

� �

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7614

1

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.

7071 96038142.0 =

ialin helorepid tapad sataid nagnutihrep irad idaJ

𝑃

1 satilibaborp aynitra gnay

81452.0 rasebes metsis malad naggnalep 1 ada

halada ruggnaggnem gnay revres ada satilibaborp utnu nakgnadeS

𝑃

0

�

𝑃

1

� 96035214.0 = 96038142.0 + 7071.0

ayajatreK kinoortkelE onotraH id gnarab retnuoc sagutep satilibaporp idaJ

adnI rasebes ruggnagnem gnay ada 3 iatnal adap h 5214.0 .

5.4 ataR - naggnaleP halmuJ ataR

ataR - naggnalep halmuj atar irtnagnem gnay atar utiay ,aud idajnem igabid - atar

atar nad nairtna malad naggnalep halmuj - metsis malad naggnalep halmuj atar ,

sirabreb gnay naggnalep halmuj halada nairtna malad naggnalep halmuj aynduskam

halmuj halada nairtna metsis malad naggnalep halmuj nakgnades ,irtnagnem kutnu

.inayalid gnades gnay nad inayalid kuttnu irtnagnem gnades gnay naggnalep

1.5.4 ataR - aleP halmuJ atar nairtnA malad naggn

ataR - nairtna malad naggnalep halmuj atar

�

𝐿

𝑞

� nakanuggnem gnutihid tapad

.ini hawab id itrepes sumur

𝐿

𝑞

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1

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7071

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7614

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807

2

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0

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807

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2

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1

.

624 naggnalep 2 ~ naggnalep

tihid haleteS ialin naktapadid sitametam araces gnu

𝐿

𝑞 idaJ .2 ~ 624.1 rasebes

atar - atar halmuj kutnu irtnagnem gnay naggnalep halet gnay gnarab libmagnem

ileb akerem id retnuoc gnarab 3 iatnal ayabaruS ,hadnI ayajatreK kinortkelE onotraH

kaynabes 2 .naggnalep

2.5.4 ataR - nairtnA malad naggnaleP halmuJ atar

r kutnU ata - malad naggnalep halmuj atar metsis

�

𝐿

� nakanuggnem gnutihid tapad

.ini hawab id itrepes sumur

𝐿

�

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𝐿

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.

624

�

1

.

7614

�

2

.

2348

naggnalep 3 ~ naggnalep

adreB sataid nagnutihrep nakras akam , atar - atar uj halm metsis malad naggnalep

adap ileb akerem halet gnay gnarab nalibmagnep kaynabes halada 3 .naggnalep

id inayalid gnades gnay nad irtnagnem gnades gnay naggnalep halmuj aynduskaM

adap gnarab nalibmagnep nairtna malad retnuoc tkelE onotraH 3 iatnal gnarab akinor

.naggnalep 3 kaynabes

6.4 ataR - uggnuneM utkaW ataR

ataR - atar uggnunem utkaw atar utiay ,aud idajnem igabid - atar utkaw

uggnunem atar nad nairtna malad - atar uggnunem utkaw .metsis malad ataR - utkaw atar

atar aynduskam nairtna malad uggnunem - kutnu naggnalep nakulrepid gnay utkaw atar

halada metsis malad uggnunem utkaw nakgnades ,nanayalep tapadnem uggnunem

.inayalid iaseles aggnih nairna kusam ialum taas naggnalep nakanugid gnay utkaw

1.6.4 ataR - uggnuneM utkaWatar d mala A nairtn

ataR - atar uggnunem utkaw nairtna malad

�

𝑊

𝑞

� nakanuggnem gnutihid tapad

.ini hawab id itrepes sumur

𝑊

𝑞

�

𝐿

𝑞

𝜆

𝑊

𝑞

�

1

.

624

0

.

7661

�

8

.

955 tinem

aggniheS r ata - atar uggnunem utkaw naka gnay naggnalep aumes libmagnem

gnarab id retnuoc hadnI ayajatreK kinortkelE onotraH id 3 iatnal adap gnarab gnay

nairtna malad ileb akerem halet males halada a .tinem 955.8

2.6.4 ataR - uggnuneM utkaW atar d S mala metsi

ataR - atar uggnunem utkaw malad metsis

�

𝑊

� nakanuggnem gnutihid tapad

itrepes sumur .ini hawab id

𝑊

�

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𝑞

�

1

𝜇

𝑊

�

8

.

955

�

1

0

.

6711

�

71

.

950 tinem

adreB sataid nagnutihrep nakras atar akam , - atar malad uggnunem utkaw

naggnalep d ialum gnay gnarab tapadnem naggnalep iapmas nairtna kusam ira akerem

id ileb hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH ayabaruS , 950.71 amales tinem .

V BAB

NARAS NAD NALUPMISEK

1.5 nalupmiseK

ad natamagnep iraD nakukalid halet gnay sisilana n , nalupmisek naktapadid

:tukireb itrepes

.1 nairtna metsis malaD nalibmagnep gnarab naggnalep helo ilebid halet gnay id

hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH malada aynnairtna metsis ledom ,3 iatnal

/2/M/M( )I/I .

.2 lisah nakrasadreB natamagnep naggnalep nagnatadek ratna utkaw

ayabaruS ,hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH anerak laisnenopske isubirtsidreb

ialin p- eulav α > ) 841.0 ( isubirtsidreb aguj nanayalep utkaw nad ) 50.0 (

rasebes ialin nagned laisnenopske p- eulav .) 50.0 ( α > ) 052.0 > (

.3 satilitU sagutep / revres adap nairtna metsis id retnuoc gnarab onotraH

ayabaruS ,hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelE d 3 iatnal nagne revres 2 kaynabes utiay

0 rasebes . itrareb gnay ,7 whab a revres atar nad kubis tubesret - atar revres kubis

aynutkaw irad %07 rasebes .

.4 P sagutep satilibabor retnuoc gnarab hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelE onotraH ,

ayabaruS 3 iatnal ilebid halet gnay gnarab nalibmagnep inayalem gnay lo he

7071.0 rasebes halada naggnalep tubesret sagutep nakatakid asib ,aggniheS .

kubis ulales .

.5 ataR - halet gnay gnarab libmagnem kutnu irtnagnem gnay naggnalep halmuj atar

ileb akerem id retnuoc gnarab ,hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelE onotraH

ayabaruS 3 iatnal abes 1 kayn naggnalep 2 ~ 624. atar nad - naggnalep halmuj atar

kaynabes ini nairtnaadap inayalid gnades gnay nad irtnagnem gnades gnay

2 naggnalep 3 ~ 2348. .naggnalep

.6 R ata - gnarab libmagnem naka gnay naggnalep aumes uggnunem utkaw atar id

ad ileb akerem halet gnay nairtna mal retnuoc gnarab akinortkelE onotraH

ayabaruS ,hadnI ayajatreK 3 iatnal amales halada 955.8 nad tinem atar utkaw -

iaseles iapmas nairtna kusam irad ialum naggnalep nakhutubid gnay atar

sagutep helo inayalid hadnI ayajatreK akinortkelEonotraH kutnu ayabaruS ,

ileb akerem halet gnay gnarab libmagnem amales halada 950.71 tinem .

2.5 naraS

metsis utaus aynkiabes ,naggnalep adapek nanayalep naklamiskamem kutnU

ulrep nanayalep satilisaF .lamitpo gnay nanayalep satilisaf nakirebmem nanayalep

a nakahasuid iaynupmem metsis utaus alibapa anerak lamitpo irad gnaruk kadit rag

kadit gnay ilebmep aynada tabikareb naka akam lamitpo halmuj irad gnaruk satilisaf

et r .inayal

AKATSUP RATFAD

amahrI h .)1102(.inupmuM irS ,hisgninanteR nad isarepO tesiR nad iroeT(

.)isakilpA ayabaruS :SSERPSTI

)7891( ,naigaiS .P . ek nakateC ,ketkarP naD iroeT : lanoisarepO naitileneP -l. tibreneP

U :I atrakaJ

.8002 .minonA nairtnA iroeT .

:aidesreT isalumis/20/8002/moc.sserpdrow.selif.neoytsohg//:ptth -

fdp.nairtna .D seskai laggnat 3102 rebmeseD 6 .

NARIPMAL 1.1

)tinem( nanayaleP utkaW nad )tinem( nagnatadeK ratna utkaW amaL lebaT

.oN

utkaW

nagnatadeK

)lukuP(

utkaW

ratnA

nagnatadeK

)tineM(

inayaliD ialuM

)lukuP(

iaseleS

inayaliD

)lukuP(

utkaW

nanayaleP

)tineM(

03.71 lukup 5102 lirpA 72 ,nineS – 81 01.

1 83.71 - ( 83.71 1 revreS ) 55.71 71

2 84.71 9 ( 74.71 )2 revreS 55.71 3

3 45.71 7 ( 55.71 1 revreS ) 65.71 1

4 95.71 5 ( 95.71 )2 revreS 01.81 11

03.31 lukup 5102 lirpA 92 ,ubaR – 00.51

1 13.30 - 13. 14 ( revreS 1) 1 44.3 3

2 13. 33 3 13.4 ( 5 revreS 2) 13. 25 7

3 13. 93 6 13. 44 ( revreS 1) 65.31 21

4 13. 44 5 13. 35 ( revreS 2) 65.31 3

5 84.31 4 65.31 ( revreS 1) 70.41 11

6 25.31 4 65.31 ( revreS 2) 50.41 9

7 20.41 01 50.41 ( revreS 2) 22.41 71

8 70.41 5 70.41 ( revreS 1) 21.41 5

9 90.41 2 21.41 ( revreS 1) 31.41 1

01 91.41 01 91.41 ( revreS 1) 12.41 2

11 22.41 3 22.41 ( revreS 2) 72.41 5

12 32.41 1 32.41 ( revreS 1) 14.41 81

13 92.41 6 92.41 ( revreS 2) 54.41 61

41 34.41 41 34.41 ( revreS 1) 85.41 51

51 15.41 8 25.41 ( revreS 2) 65.41 4

NARIPMAL 2.1