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La Niña Early warning – early action analysis for a potential La Niña in 2016 – 2017
Revised edition (August 2016)Update #2
La Niña Early warning – early action analysis for a potential La Niña in 2016 – 2017
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONSROME, 2016
Revised edition (August 2016) Update #2
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Global overview
What is La Niña?
Purpose of this reportThe aim of this report is to:(a) consolidateinformationonLaNiña’spotentialimpactsonagricultureandfoodsecurity,specificallyintheregionswhicharenowdealingwiththe consequencesofElNiño;and(b) provideearlyactionrecommendationsintheagriculturesectortoeitherreapthebeneficialoutcomesofLaNiña,orprevent,mitigateandprepareforits negativeeffects.
What is the current forecast for La Niña? CurrentforecastsindicatethattheonsetofaLaNiñaepisodemaystartbetweenAugustandOctober2016andthereisa55to60percentchancethatitwouldpersistuntilthebeginningof2017.ThetimingofaLaNiñaonsetiskeytodeterminehowitsconsequenceswillimpactonagriculture.
What are the main consequences of La Niña for agriculture and food security? ALaNiñaphenomenagenerallyaffectsthesameregionsthatareimpactedbyElNiño,withoppositeclimaticconsequences.Areaswhichexperienceddryconditions(below-averagerainfalland/orincreasedtemperature)duringElNiño,forinstance,tendtoreceiveabove-averagerainfallandinsomecasescoolertemperatures.
WhiletheclimaticphenomenonusuallypeaksinintensitybetweenOctoberandJanuary,changestoclimaticpatternsandtheirrelatedimpactsonfoodsecurityandagriculturecanhappenbothbeforeandafterthepeak.ItispossiblethatLaNiñacoulddevelopasearlyasAugust,inwhichcaseitmightalreadystartaffectingthegrowingseasonsinsomepartsoftheworldfromSeptember2016.
TheconsequencesofLaNiñaonagricultureandfoodsecuritycanbebothpositiveandnegative.Thepositiveeffectsderivefromtheincreasedlikelihoodofabove-averagerainfallwhichcouldimprovepastureandcropyields.Atthesametime,iftheabove-averagerainfallresultsinflooding,thenclearlytheresultsmaybenegativeasinthiscasethereisanincreasedincidenceofseedsbeingwashedaway,landslides,cropsdestroyedandlivestockmorbidityandmortality.SinceLaNiñawouldmostlikelyimpactregionsthathavealreadybeenaffectedbyElNiño,thefoodsecuritysituationcouldfurtherdeteriorateandprotractinto2018.Intheeventofa“positive”LaNiña,itisimportanttohighlightthattheactualfulleffectofabove-averagerainfallwillnotbefeltuntilthenextharvest–i.e.theendof2016(ifLaNiñacomesearly)orbymid-2017(ifLaNiñaoccurslater).
LaNiñaisthecoolingofseasurfacetemperaturesinthetropicalPacific,whichoccursroughlyeverythreetofiveyears,lastingfromsixto24months.Onaverage,halfofElNiñoeventsarefollowedbyaLaNiña,whichtypicallyaffectsglobalclimatepatternsintheoppositewayElNiñodoes.TheintensityoftheLaNiñaclimaticphenomenongenerallypeaksbetweenOctoberandJanuary.
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Historical La Niña trends
TheInstituteforClimateandSocietyatColombiaUniversityhasdevelopedatypologyofLaNiñaclimaticimpactsbasedonanalysisofLaNiñaeventsovertheyears.ThefollowingmapindicatesthetypicalimpactsofLaNiñaonthecontinent.
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1 Thegraphfocusesonlyonthegeneralpatternsofimpactonspecificregionswhicharefurtherdetailedbelow.TherowonLaNiñaprobabilityforecastisbasedontheofficialprobabilisticENSOforecastofCPC-IRI.Thedarker-bluecolourindicatesthelevelover50percentintheforecastforLaNiñaprobability,notitsstrength.ThegraphstopsatMay2017asdoestheofficialforecastinformation,yetconsequencesofLaNiñaonagriculturalseasonsmightendurefurther.ItshouldbenotedthatthelistofregionsaffectedisnotexhaustiveandthatearlyeffectsofLaNiñaaremarkedstartingfromSeptember2016,eventhoughhistoricallyLaNiñaconsequencescouldstartearlier.ThisisduetothecurrentstatusoftheforecastandthepotentialtimingofLaNiñaconsequences,explained in the page above.
Timeline of impact graph
The following diagram1illustratesapotentialtimelineofLaNiña-inducedimpactsacrossdifferentregionsbasedontheusualpatternobservedduringLaNiñayears.Itcanhelpguidetheappropriatetimingforearlyactionimplementation.Thisconsolidatedinformationissubjecttochangeasforecastsevolveandadditionalinformationbecomes available.
Continents and Regions
Feb-17Jan-17 Mar-17Aug-16 Oct-16Sep-16 Dec-16Nov-16
Timeline of potential La Niña impacts across the globe
Month
La Niña probability forecast
Above Average Rainfall
Above-average rainfall
Above-average Rainfall and Increase Cyclone
AFRICA: Southern Africa
AFRICA: East and Central Africa
AFRICA: Sahel (only in case of early onset)
AMERICA: Central America, Caribbean and northern South America
AMERICA: South America (Southern Brazil and Central Argentina)
ASIA: South and Southeast Asia(particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Papau New Guinea)
ASIA: Central Asia
Apr-17 May-17
Drier than Average conditions
Drier-than-average conditions
Drier-than-average conditions
Continents and Regions
Feb-17Jan-17 Mar-17Aug-16 Oct-16Sep-16 Dec-16Nov-16
Timeline of potential La Niña impacts across the globe
Month
La Niña probability forecast
Above Average Rainfall
Above-average rainfall
Above-average Rainfall and Increase Cyclone
AFRICA: Southern Africa
AFRICA: East and Central Africa
AFRICA: Sahel (only in case of early onset)
AMERICA: Central America, Caribbean and northern South America
AMERICA: South America (Southern Brazil and Central Argentina)
ASIA: South and Southeast Asia(particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Papau New Guinea)
ASIA: Central Asia
Apr-17 May-17
Drier than Average conditions
Drier-than-average conditions
Drier-than-average conditions
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AFRICA: Southern Africa region
Impact outlook
Increased flood and cyclone risk • InSouthern Africa,LaNiñaisgenerallyassociatedwithincreased
probability of above-average rainfall from around November to April, which corresponds to the main cropping season for most countries in the region.
Potential benefits• Enhancedrainfallcouldspeeduptheregenerationofpasturelandandlead
toabove-averagecropproductionforthesummerharvest.• PositiveeffectsofLaNiñaoncropproductionwouldonlybeabletoalleviate
thecurrenthighlevelsoffoodinsecurityfromFebruary2017onwards,when the main maize crop matures and is subsequently harvested.
Potential negative effects• Ifexcessive,precipitationwouldincreasetheriskoflocalizedflooding
which could wash away seeds, damage or destroy standing crops, increase livestock morbidity and mortality and damage infrastructure.
• There is also an increased likelihood of cyclones forming in the Mozambiquechannelwithassociatedpotentiallandfallandflooding.
Recommended early actionsFarmers and pastoralists in the region need to be supported in order to be able toreapthepotentialbenefitsofLaNiña.Thisshouldbedonethroughasetofindicativeearlyactionsasindicatedbelow.
Conversely,inordertoprepareforthenegativeconsequencesoflocalizedflood-ing, the following should be embedded into current response plans.
Feb-17Jan-17 Mar-17
Timeline of Poten�al La Niña Impacts across the GlobeMonthAbove Average Rainfall
Above Average Rainfall and Increase Cyclone
Sahel Region (only in case of early onset)
Central America, Caribbeanand northern Southern America
Southern America (Southern Brazil and Central Argen�na)
Southe-East Asia (par�cularly Indonesia,Malaysia, Philippines, PNG)
Central Asia
Aug OctSep-16 DecNov2016
Climate
EARe
com
men
da�o
ns
Flood/flashflood
preparedness to protectlivelihoods
Flood risk mapping and con�ngency plans, check dam construc�on and riverbank repairs
Community seed stores and distribu�on of short cycle crop varie�es for post flooding
Rainy season
Feb-17Jan-17 Mar-17Aug OctSep-16 DecNov
Timeline of Poten�al La Niña Impacts across the GlobeMonthAbove Average Rainfall
Above Average Rainfall and Increase Cyclone
Flood/flash floodpreparedness toprotect livelihoods
Central America, Caribbeanand northern Southern America
Southern America(Southern Brazil and Central Argen�na)
Southe-East Asia (par�cularly Indonesia,Malaysia, Philippines, PNG)
Central Asia
Check dam construc�on
Repair/support riverbanks
Community seed stores
Short-cycle crop varie�es for post flfloodsd
2016
Climate
Crop Calendar
EARe
com
men
da�o
ns Crop and vegetable produc�on
Livestock Livestock restocking
Vaccinac�on programme
Rainy season
Plan�ng
Fer�lizer and seeddistribu�on
Provision of supplementary feed and water
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AFRICA: East Africa, Central Africa and Sahel regions
Impact outlook
East and Central Africa: increased likelihood of above- and below- average rainfall • LocalizedareasofEastandCentralAfricaaremostlyaffectedbydrier-than-
normalconditionsduringLaNiñaevents,particularlyfromNovembertoMarch.ThiswouldoccurinregionsofEthiopia,SouthSudan,SomaliaandKenya.
• LocalizedfloodingcanalsooccurineasternAfrica,suchasnorthernEthiopia,centralandnorthernSudan.
Potential benefits• Above-average rainfall could bring relief to areas impacted by drought and
enhancerestorationofpastureandcropproduction.Potential negative effects: below-average rainfall• Below-averagerainfallordroughtinducedbyLaNiñainthelatterhalfof
thisyearwouldnegativelyaffectthesecondaryagriculturalseasoncropharvestedinFebruary–March.
• Dryconditionscouldworsenbodyconditionsandtriggerincreasedlivestockmigration,expandingthespreadoflivestockdiseases.
Potential negative effects: above-average rainfall • Insomeareas,above-averagerainfallcouldincreasetheriskoflocalized
floodingwithassociateddamagetocrops,livestockandinfrastructure.
Sahel: increased likelihood of above-average rainfallPotential benefits• AnearlyonsetofLaNiñawouldpotentiallybenefittheendofthecrop
seasonfortheSahelregion,sincethephenomenonbringsabove-averagerainfallfromJulytoSeptember.
Potential negative effects• Increasedriskoflocalizedfloodinganditsassociatedcropdamage,livestock
loss and displacement.• IncreasedriskofDesertLocustinfestationsduetoimprovedecological
conditionsinthesummerbreedingareasofnorthernSahel(July–October).
Early actions relevant for above-average rainfall conditions include:• mapoutareasvulnerabletofloodingandcommunicatelanduserisks;• advisepastoralistherdersabouttheriskoffloodinginmigratoryroutes
(PastoralistKnowledgeHubcouldbeused);• checkdamconstruction;• repair/supportriverbanks;and• supportconstructionofcommunityseedstores.
Early actions relevant for drier-than-average conditions include: • regularvaccinationprogramsconductedbeforeNovember/December,to
preventnegativeimpacts(vaccinatingdrought-weakenedanimals);• supplementary feeding for livestock to preserve livelihoods of highly vulnerable
pastoralists;• trackingandfollow-upofsituationofmigratoryroutesandadviceto
pastoralists;• supportwatersupplyforlivestockandcropsthroughrehabilitatingor
establishingnew/temporarywaterpoints;and• commercial destocking.
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AMERICA: Central, South America and the Caribbean regionsImpact outlook
Central America, the Caribbean and northern South America• LaNiñaintheseareasisassociatedwithlocalizedabove-average
precipitationfromJunetoMarchofthefollowingyear.
Potential benefits• AnearlyonsetofLaNiñamightbenefittheprimeraseasoncerealcropscurrently
beingplantedinareasoftheDryCorridorofCentralAmerica.InnorthernBrazil,LaNiñamightbenefitplantingandearlydevelopmentoffoodcrops.
Potential negative effectsLaNiñacanhavetwomainnegativeeffectsfortheregion:• Beanproductionmightbeaffected,ifLaNiñaestablishesitselfinSeptember
when the harvest occurs. The primera season is not the main bean productionseason,butitistheseasonfromwhichfarmersobtainseedsforthe following main postrera season (December to March). Excessive rainfall might impact the quality of seeds and result in important seed losses, given thesensitivityofbeanstohumidity.
• TheAtlantichurricaneseason(JuneNovember)increasesinactivityduringtheLaNiñaphenomenon.Forinstance,theextensivedamageinflictedin1998byHurricane“Mitch”toCentralAmericaandtheCaribbeanoccurredduringaLaNiñayear.
South America• InseveralotherpartsofSouthAmerica,anearlyonsetofLaNiñawould
bring drier-than-normal weather along coastal Ecuador and northwestern Peru,southernBrazil,Uruguay,ArgentinaandcentralChile.
Potential negative effects• DryconditionscouldaffectwheatandsoyacropsinsouthernBraziland
centralArgentina,whicharealsothemainproducingareas.• Lackofpasturewillaffectanimalbodyconditionsandgeneralhealthmaking
themmoresusceptibletodifferentdiseases,aswellasreduceproductionsuch as milk and wool.
• Lowgrasswillforceanimalstograzeclosetosoilandhenceinanthraxendemicareasincreasetheriskofinfection.
Early actions relevant for above-average rainfall in Central America, the Caribbean and northern South America include:• actnowtoensureharvestmonitoringsurveillanceissufficienttoallow
timelyresponsetodamagedprimeraharvestinAugust/September;• responsecouldincludeseedsupportinordertoensureadequateplanting
forthemainposteraseason;• immediate agricultural extension advice to be issued to farmers on seed
drying methods and storage before the bean primera harvest in August/September;
• immediatereviewofflooddefencecapacitiesinflood-proneareas–checkdamconstruction,repair/supportriverbanksandsupporttoconstructionofcommunityseedstoresasappropriate;and
• supportagriculturalextensionservicestoprepareadviceonadjustmentsoffertilizerandfungicideapplicationorearlyharvest.(Actualapplicabilityandtimingwilldependonmeteorologicalforecasts,precipitationrates,cropandplant growth stage).
Early actions relevant for drier-than-average conditions in South America include:• immediatepreparationforextensionadviceonplantingofearlymaturing
soybeansinSeptember/October;and• support water supply for livestock and crops through immediate review of
waterpointcoverageandrehabilitationorestablishmentasappropriateinAugust.
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ASIA & PACIFIC: Central, South, Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands regions
Impact outlook
South and Southeast Asia• InmuchofSouthandSoutheastAsia,LaNiñaincreasestheprobabilityof
heavierrainfall,especiallyduringtheendof2016andstartof2017.ThisisparticularlythecaseforIndonesia,BangladeshandMalaysia,andtheseeffectscouldextendtothePhilippines,PapuaNewGuinea,areasofthePacificandothercountriesintheregion.
Potential benefits• IfLaNiñasets-inearly(fromJulyonwards),enhancedrainfallcouldbenefit
cropdevelopmentofthe2016mainseasoncropsintheNorthernHemispherecountriesandthe2016secondarycropsintheSouthernHemisphere,bringingrelieftocurrentdrought-affectedareas.
Potential negative effects• Excessiverainscouldalsoincreasetheriskoffloodingforlow-lying
agricultural lands, produce extensive damage to standing crops, increase pest anddiseasesandheightenthepotentialforlandslides.
Central Asia• AcrossvariouscountriesofCentralAsia,LaNiñawouldbringdrier-than-
averageconditionsfromJanuarytoMay2017.
Pacific• ConsequenceswouldvarywidelyacrossthePacific.Oneofthemainpotential
benefitswouldbethereducedlikelihoodofhurricanesinthenortheastPacific.
Early actions relevant for above-average rainfall in South and Southeast Asia include:• advisefarmersonseeddryingmethodsandstorage;• checkdamconstructioninhighflood-proneareas,repairandsupport
riverbanksandestablishcommunityseedstoresinAugust;• supportagriculturalextensionservicestoprepareadviceonadjustments
offertilizerandfungicideapplicationorearlyplantingandharvesting.(Applicabilityandtimingwilldependonmeteorologicalforecasts,precipitationrates,cropandplantgrowthstages);
• providesubmergence-tolerantricevarietiesbasedonmeteorologicalforecasts(forfirst,secondorthirdricecroprespectivelytocountriesaffected);and
• intensify surveillance and monitoring of vector-borne diseases from Septemberonwards.
Early actions relevant for drier-than-average conditions in Central Asia include:• provideabioticstress-tolerantvarietiesforearlycropsandearlymaturing
crops(e.g.potato)inJanuaryfortheplantingseasoninFebruary/March(dependingonlocationandfarmingsystems);and
• strengthen community-based water management techniques from October to December.
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Sources of information
Thisanalysisconsolidatesinformationproducedmostlybythesesourcesandreferences:
• GlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystemonFoodandAgriculture(GIEWS)oftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations• InternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSociety(IRI),EarthInstitute,ColumbiaUniversity• NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),ClimatePredictionCentre• HironsL.andKlingamanN.;LaNiña2016/2017HistoricalImpactAnalysis,ReportproducedforEvidenceonDemandwiththeassistanceoftheUKDepartmentfor
InternationalDevelopment,February2016.• Inter-AgencyStandingCommittee,EarlyWarning,EarlyActionandReadinessReport,June–November2016• OfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs(OCHA),OverviewofImpact,ProjectedHumanitarianNeedsandResponse,June2016• FamineEarlyWarningSystemsNetwork(FEWSNET)• TheDesertLocustInformationService(DLIS)oftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations
www.fao.org/emergencies
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