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Karakteristik af målgruppe og komparativ analyse af ... fileKarakteristik af målgruppe og komparativ analyse af udvalgte decentrale anlægskoncepter med store varmepumper Forberedelse

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Karakteristik af mlgruppe og komparativ analyse af udvalgte decentrale

anlgskoncepter med store varmepumper

Forberedelse af demonstrationsprogram for store el-drevne varmepumper

31. maj 2015

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Indholdsfortegnelse INDHOLDSFORTEGNELSE ......................................................................................................................... 2

NOMENKLATUR ............................................................................................................................................ 4

FORORD ........................................................................................................................................................... 5

1. KORT ORIENTERING OM PRINCIPPER, PLANER OG STATUS FOR STORE ELDREVNE VARMEPUMPER ............................................................................................................................................ 6

1.1 ELDREVNE VARMEPUMPER I ENERGISYSTEMET .................................................................................. 61.2 PLANER .............................................................................................................................................. 71.3 STATUS ............................................................................................................................................... 8

2. KARAKTERISTIK AF MLGRUPPEN ............................................................................................ 10

2.1 MLGRUPPER ................................................................................................................................... 102.2 TEKNISK KARAKTERISTIK ................................................................................................................. 102.3 PRISKARAKTERISTIK ........................................................................................................................ 142.4 OPSAMLING P TEKNISK OG KONOMISK KARAKTERISTIK ............................................................... 16

3. MODELANALYSER ............................................................................................................................. 17

3.1 REFERENCEANLG ........................................................................................................................... 173.2 OMSTILLINGSSTRATEGIER ................................................................................................................ 173.3 ANLGSKONCEPTER ........................................................................................................................ 193.4 DESIGNANALYSER ............................................................................................................................ 22

3.4.1 CHP referencen ........................................................................................................................... 223.4.2 CHP-HP-WW (klassisk lsning med spildvarme, mlgruppe A) ............................................ 263.4.3 CHP-BB referencen (fritvalgsvrk) og CHP-BB-HP-WW ......................................................... 293.4.4 Fuldlasttimer for varmepumpen .................................................................................................. 313.4.5 CHP-HP tekniske-CO2 emissioner ............................................................................................. 33

3.5 KOMPARATIV ANALYSE RANGORDNING AF ANLGSKONCEPTER ................................................... 343.5.1 Fossilt brndselsforbrug ............................................................................................................. 353.5.2 Tekniske CO2 emissioner ............................................................................................................ 363.5.3 Vindvenlighed .............................................................................................................................. 373.5.4 Vindvolumen - forbrug ................................................................................................................ 403.5.5 Vindvolumen produktion .......................................................................................................... 413.5.6 Selskabskonomi ......................................................................................................................... 42

3.6 SELSKABSKONOMISK TILSKUDSBEHOV .......................................................................................... 433.6.1 Mlgruppe A ................................................................................................................................ 433.6.2 Mlgruppe C (Fritvalgsvrker) .................................................................................................. 45

4. KONKLUSION OG DISKUSSION ...................................................................................................... 47

4.1 KARAKTERISTIK AF MLGRUPPE ...................................................................................................... 474.2 LSNINGSRUM: LEVETIDSFORLNGELSE ELLER SKROTNING, EKSTERN ELLER INTERN VARMEKILDE?474.3 SELSKABSKONOMI OG STTTENIVEAU ........................................................................................... 494.4 VINDVENLIGE VARMEPUMPER .......................................................................................................... 504.5 FRA KRAFTVARME TIL KRAFT-TIL-VARME ........................................................................................ 51

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APPENDIKS.................................................................................................................................................... 52

A 1. FORUDSTNINGER OG METODE ............................................................................................. 52

A 1.1 GENEREL MODELBESKRIVELSE ......................................................................................................... 52A 1.2 OVERORDNEDE FORUDSTNINGER OG METODE ............................................................................... 52A 1.3 VARMEGRUNDLAG ........................................................................................................................... 53A 1.4 TEKNISK-KONOMISKE ANLGSFORUDSTNINGER ......................................................................... 54A 1.5 SAMFUNDSKONOMISKE BRNDSELSPRISER SAMT CO2 KVOTEPRIS ............................................... 58A 1.6 ENERGISYSTEMET ............................................................................................................................ 59A 1.7 SAMFUNDSKONOMISK ELSPOT, NETTARIFFER, PSO ....................................................................... 62A 1.8 STATSFINANCIELLE AFGIFTER P BRNDSLER OG EL ....................................................................... 63A 1.9 GRUNDBELB ................................................................................................................................... 63

A 2. PRINCIPDIAGRAMMER FOR MODELANLG FRA COMPOSE ......................................... 64

A 2.1 CHP ................................................................................................................................................. 64A 2.2 CHP-BB ........................................................................................................................................... 64A 2.3 CHP-HP-WW, CHP-HP-GS, CHP-HP-AS ..................................................................................... 64A 2.4 CHP-BB-HP-WW, CHP-BB-HP-AS ............................................................................................... 65A 2.5 CHP-HP-FG .................................................................................................................................... 65A 2.6 CHP-HP-FG-CS .............................................................................................................................. 65A 2.7 CHP-SH-HP-CS .............................................................................................................................. 66A 2.8 BB-HP-GS ....................................................................................................................................... 66A 2.9 HP-WW-EB ..................................................................................................................................... 67A 2.10 SH-HP-EB-CS ............................................................................................................................. 67A 2.11 BB-OB ........................................................................................................................................ 67

A 3. YDERLIGERE DOKUMENTATION ............................................................................................. 68

A 4. REFERENCER .................................................................................................................................. 69

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Nomenklatur Symbol Beskrivelse AS Luft-kilde (Air Source) BB Biomassekedel (Biomass Boiler) CHP Kraftvarmeanlg (Combined Heat and Power) CO2 Naturligt CO2 klemiddel CS Koldt mellemlager til lagring af intern lavtemperatur-varmekilde, f.eks.

solvarme eller rggas (Cold Storage) DSV Demonstrationsprogram for Store Varmepumper EB Elkedel (Electric Boiler) FDR Selskabskonomisk diskonteringsrente (Financial Discount Rate) FG Rggaskling (Flue Gas) FL Finanslov Frozen System

El- og brndselspriser fastholdt p 2016 niveau, samt 2016 grundbelb, evt. investeringer annuiseres

GB Gaskedel (Gas Boiler) GS Jord-kilde (Ground Source) HP Varmepumpe (Heat Pump) ifm. i forbindelse med ift. i forhold til m/u med eller uden mht. med hensyn til MILP Mixed-Integer Linear Program

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