Japan’s future in space

Japan’s Consultative Committee on Long Term Policy was established within the Space Activities Commission to consider how the country’s space activities should proceed. The Committee was asked to take a long-term viewpoint, considering the rapid changes in both domestic and overseas space activities. This report is an edited version (and unofficial translation) of the Committee’s report, published in May 1987. It outlines the significance of space activities for Japan, considers how they have developed during this century, forecasts development after the year 2000, and presents proposals for the execution of Japan’s space development.

The Consultative Committee consi- dered the significance of space activi- ties in four areas.

Scientific explorution

Outer space is the object of human- kind’s dreams and romance. It is boundless as a subject for the pursuit of truth. The scientific exploration of outer space will elucidate the origin of space as well as of living organisms, and will lead to a new era in human culture.

Furthermore, the scientific observa- tion of the Earth from space is useful in discovering, exploring and under- standing phenomena on and around the Earth. It can contribute to solving the fundamental problems of the Earth and the existence of human-

kind.

Extension of human activities

According to the expansion of the domain of human activities, society has grown. Space is now a new fron- tier in the same way that a new

continent, ocean and atmosphere were. In the 21st century, the domain of human activities will be further

extended from the Earth to outer

space. namely, to the Moon and planets.

Contribution to society

The exploration and utilization of outer space must be a motive force to stimulate promotion of science and technology. And through these scien- tific and technological activities, hu- man society will be innovative and will grow to further new stages of human development.

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Communications, broadcasting and Earth observation satellites, which be- nefit from their position in outer space, enhance the so-called informa- tion society, deepen knowledge and understanding of global phenomena, and thus contribute to improving habi- tability as well as efficient use of resources on Earth.

Other space activities using space- unique environmental conditions, such as microgravity, high vacuum and low temperature. enable human beings to obtain new knowledge and to produce exotic materials which are unobtainable under Earth conditions. These activities will help create new industries based upon highly advanced

technology. Furthermore, outer space explora-

tion may provide resources and energy originating in the celestial sphere or

outer space.

Internationul cooperation

Space must be a common frontier shared by all humankind. Space activi- ties are recognized as the human challenge of the unknown, which re- quires breakthroughs in various scien- tific and technological fields. We will succeed, but only if human beings make joint efforts to do so. Therefore, international cooperation must be a key element for this success. Such challenges will contribute to establish- ment of a cooperative international

society.

Goals

The development and utilization of outer space is a new domain which

Japan will challenge as a member of international society. Such challenges contribute to the integration of Japan’s industrial structure into the international economy and thus will help to bring about a more comfort- able and affluent society for Japan, through progress in science and tech- nology and the improvement of land use. One of Japan’s missions will be to contribute with its own capability to the development of international space activities which will enhance the knowledge, culture and future possibi- lities for human beings.

Under these circumstances, Japan’s space development must proceed sole- ly for peaceful purposes, to build immediately the technological basis capable of executing autonomous space activities, and to extend interna- tional cooperation positively, in a manner suitable to Japan’s role as an

advanced country. From this viewpoint, Japan should

endeavour to behave as a core mem- ber in world space activities at the beginning of the 21st century.

Space activities in Japan

Based on the fundamental principles of developing and maintaining inde- pendent technology and of possessing the capability to promote space activi- ties freely, Japan’s space development will emphasize the following courses. At the same time, international coop- eration will be actively and positively

promoted.

0

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From now until the early half of the 1990s Japan will attempt to advance space science and pro- mote the development of the ETS-VI and H-II rocket, the fun- damental independent technolo- gy on large-scale satellites and launch vehicles which Japan needs. Furthermore, the develop- ment of space infrastructure which will become the basis of space activities such as the space station will begin, and JEM will

be developed. From the latter half of the 1990s to the early 21st century, the operation of the space station and the development and operation of

SPACE POLICY February 1988

operation of space infrastructure centring around it will be ex- tended. At the same time, space industries will endeavour to be- come self-supporting. Explora- tion of the Moon and planets will begin.

Evolution up to 2000

Promoting space science research. During this century, together with the execution of medium-scale missions once or twice a year, a large-scale mission with international cooperation will be conducted, in an attempt to make continuous progress in every field. International cooperation will be implemented, while maintaining the initiative in Japan.

Exploring resources and energy in space. Since space resources should be the common estate of humankind, it is necessary for Japan to pursue the possibility of space resource utiliza- tion, in consideration of the possibility of taking part in future development. In support of this, exploration of the Moon and planets will begin with the preparation of space infrastructure. Furthermore, in order to conduct space activities on a large scale, re- search and development on efficient utilization of solar energy (such as solar electricity generation) will be promoted. Fundamental studies will also be conducted on larger-scale solar energy utilization.

Development o f space infrastruc- ture. Promoting advances in space activities requires permanent facilities where humans can stay and conduct activities, facilities where advanced activities are practised, and trans- portation measures enabling easy ac- cess to these facilities. These are fundamentals to carrying out various advanced space activities in the future. Their development and deployment have characteristics similar to those of public works; they should thus be called space infrastructure.

Space infrastructure is fundamental- ly composed of the following:

• A permanently manned space sta- tion, various kinds of platforms and orbital manoeuvring vehicles, and orbital transfer vehicles.

• Transportation measures for per-

sons and cargoes; for example, a space plane. An information communication system such as intersatellite com- munications, and various sup- porting systems.

Japan must deploy such space infra- structure as a fundamental to future space activities. The infrastructure should be developed with the national government at the centre, but main- taining international cooperation, and promoting initial research suitable to progress and development of space activities.

Manned space activities. In outer space activities, it is important to develop unmanned systems such as robotics and artificial intelligence.

Manned space activities are also very important for progress in space since the human presence in the new frontier enables humankind to look far beyond the unknown. Human par- ticipation makes possible the smooth operation of various activities in space, the flexible and efficient re- sponse to unknown situations, and the

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acquisition of new knowledge. Japan will therefore start full-scale technolo- gical development of manned space activities. In this regard, Japan should take a lead in the world, with the principal theme of developing a safe and reliable system.

Programme. From now until the early half of the 1990s, the Japanese manned experiment module (JEM) in the international space station project will be developed. At the same time, the development and operation of SFU, the acquisition of manned sup- port technology by FMPT, the prepa- ration of training facilities for manned space systems, and the completion of support systems promoting space environment utilization will be accom- plished. Furthermore, precursor re- search and development of inter- satellite communications will be pro- moted. Independent development of the H-II rocket will be advanced, launch rockets including existing ones will be improved, and the completion and expansion of various reliable launch vehicles will be attempted. Japan will also promote precursor

F i g u r e 1. Japanese space activities in the 21 st century.

Data relay tracking Geostationary platform satellite

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Orbital transfer Polar orbiting platform vehicle

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SPACE POLICY February 1988 75

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research and development of a space plane.

In the latter half of the 1990s, the space station operation will com- mence. The development of various orbital manoeuvring service technolo- gies, the development and operation of a co-orbiting platform enabling long duration microgravity experiments, and the development of Japan's own polar-orbiting platform will be im- plemented. Materials will be trans- ported utilizing the H-II rocket and modifications of it. Research and de- velopment of a space plane will be promoted, and the flight of an ex- perimental space plane will be attemp- ted. Moreover, an information com- munications system employing a data relay satellite for intersatellite com- munications, and a departure-landing facility for space, will be completed.

In the beginning of the 21st century, the utilization of the space station will be extended, a manned platform will be developed and operated, and the space plane will be operated in its primary stage. Furthermore, a geosta- tionary platform and an orbital trans- fer vehicle to carry the platform from a low-Earth orbit to a geostationary orbit, and to recover it, will be de- veloped.

After 2000

Because of the extensive development of space activities in the 21st century and thereaf te r , h u m a n k i n d will approach the ultimate truth which it has dreamed of clarifying: the origin and evolution of space, the origin of life, and the existence of creatures in space. Moreover, because of develop- ments such as advanced space trans- portation measures, space plants and a Moon base or Mars base, a unified society in Earth-space will be realized, where all activities from social to individual ones will correlate to space. In the 21st century and thereafter, the history of humankind will change from the 'earth age' into the 'space age': a new era.

Corresponding to such a worldwide development of space activities, and aiming at the newly developing Japanese social economy and culture, as well as contributing to the develop- ment of humankind's history, Japan

will construct and operate its own space station in and after the 21st century, forming part of a community of international space stations. A large-scale space plant which will util- ize the space station as its base will be constructed and operated, while a low-cost transportation system will also be completed and placed in ser- vice. Moreover, exploration activities in space will be extended to, for example, the routine observation of space from space such as with an in-orbit astronomical observatory, the direct exploration of celestial bodies in the Solar System, and sample return missions.

Coupled with these activities, the space industry in Japan is expected to enter a rapid growth stage, through international cooperation.

Execution of policy

In promoting space development in Japan, it is necessary to attempt the consolidated execution of policies, considering the roles of both govern- ment and private enterprises. There are several fields which rely on private activities in addition to activities promoted by the government.

Space deve lopment has broad national significance for developing human culture, extending the domain of human activity, developing the economy, and contributing to interna- tional harmonization. It strengthens the very foundations of Japan. Furth- ermore, since space development re- quires large, long-term investments and at the same time carries great risk, it is not practical to rely on private activities. Therefore, as in other coun- tries, it is necessary for Japan to promote space development as a national project with governmental mlhatwes.

To promote space development and fulfil the responsibility to future gen- erations, it is necessary to secure funds from the entire nation, with the gov- ernment as the main source.

The funds required for space de- velopment may vary according to the progress in space developments, the international situation, and so on. It is necessary to allow for the worldwide extension and growth in space activi-

ties, such as the utilization of the space environment for microgravity, high vacuum, and so on. It is being re- quested that Japan also take up the challenge of new space development, in addition to continuing existing acti- vities. To meet such requirements, government funds for space science research, fundamental original tech- nology development, the development and deployment of space infrastruc- ture, and so on for 1986 to 2000 are estimated at about Y6000 billion. This investment will contribute to making adjustments to the economic structure of Japan which are desired interna- tionally such as the extension of domestic demand, securing a place of activity for excellent scientists, and so on. The investment will be returned to the nation in the future in the form of a contribution to the development of human culture, the strengthening of the foundations of Japan, and the enjoyment of the fruit of space activi- ties. Hence Japan should make the investment with understanding for fu- ture Japanese and world society. Efforts should also be made to secure required funds by flexible thinking on financial resources, such as utilizing various kinds of funds, in addition to the general budget.

Meanwhile, from now until 2000, the USA anticipates, in the report of the National Commission on Space, the expenditure of government funds to be about Y40 000 billion (about $250 billion) in total for the develop- ment of a civilian space programme. European countries presumably will invest government funds of about Y13 000 billion in total for the whole of Europe. The investment of Japan would be equivalent to about one- tenth of the total investment of other countries. Such an effort is to be expected, considering the internation- al responsibilities of Japan which covers 10% of the world economy.

The funds to be invested by private enterprise for space development and utilization during the same period are estimated at about ¥3000 billion. It is necessary to encourage private invest- ment by means of favourable tax measures, utilizing financial invest- ment and loans, and so on, and to endeavour to ensure effective use.

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