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ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee Current Installed Capacity Requirement/Required Reserves Calculation Methodology Workshop November 18, 2004 David Ehrlich ISO New England

ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation. NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee Current Installed Capacity Requirement/Required Reserves Calculation Methodology Workshop November 18, 2004 David Ehrlich ISO New England. Agenda. Actual and Weather Normalized Peaks - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

ISO-NE New EnglandLoad Forecast Presentation

NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee

Current Installed Capacity Requirement/Required Reserves Calculation

Methodology Workshop

November 18, 2004

David Ehrlich

ISO New England

Page 2: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

2

Agenda

• Actual and Weather Normalized Peaks

• ISO-NE Short-run Energy and Peak Forecast Methodology

• Forecast a Seasonal Peak Load Distribution– Based on Historical Weather Distributions– The 50/50 – Reference Case – Most Likely– Do Not Forecast the Actual Peak Day

• Summer Weather and Peak Load Distributions

• 2004 Weather Normal Summer Peak

• 4/04 CELT Summer Peak Load Distributions

Page 3: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

3

More Complete Documentation of ISO-NE Energy and

Peak Load Models and April 2004 CELT and RTEP04

Forecasts can be Found on the ISO-NE Website :

http://www.iso-ne.com/Historical_Data/forecast/

Page 4: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

4

ISO-NE New England Summer PeaksActual and Weather Normal

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

26000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Years

MW

Actual Weather Normal

Page 5: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

5

WTHI and Temperature at Time of ISO-NE Summer PeakSummer Peak Expected to Occur at 80.1

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Years

Weig

hte

d T

em

pera

ture

/Hu

mid

ity In

dex

& T

em

pr.

WTHI 80.1 Temperature 90

Page 6: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

6

ISO-NE Econometric Model of Quarterly Energy

Aggregate Quarterly to Annual

Energy = Number of Households * Energy per Household

Energy per Household =

Constant + DummyQ2 + DummyQ3 + DummyQ4 +

Coeff * Heating Degree Days +

Coeff * Cooling Degree Days +

Coeff * Real price of Electricity +

Coeff * Real Income per Household

Page 7: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

7

Coefficients: ISO-NE Short-run Quarterly Energy Model

Real Income per Household 0.036297Real Price of Electricity -0.051287Heating Degree Days 0.000493Cooling Degree Days 0.002673Dummy Quarter 2 0.353658Dummy Quarter 3 0.674909Dummy Quarter 4 0.184243Constant 1.958934R Square 0.91

Page 8: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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ISO-NE Econometric Model of Short-run Peak Load (Cooling Season May-Sep)

Typical Daily Peak by Month ( 1992-2004 Non-holiday Weekday Daily Peaks)

Create Weekly Distributions by Using Historical Weekly WTHI Distributions

Daily Peak =

Constant + Monday + Friday +

Coeff * CLI * (WTHI-55)**2 +

Coeff * CBLI * Base Year Energy

CLI: Cooling Load Index CBLI: Cooling Base Load IndexHistorical Weekly WTHI Distributions based on 37 Years (1963-1999)WTHI: Three Day Weighted Temperature/Humidity IndexTHI: .5*Temperature + .3*DewPoint + 15Weights: .59*Current + .29*Lag1 + .12*Lag2

Page 9: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

9

Coefficients : ISO-NE Econometric Model of Short-run Peak Load

May June July August September

Energy 1.64 1.62 1.53 1.61 1.71WTHI 5.81 7.85 8.66 8.65 6.60Monday 79.71 42.99 145.82 26.14 34.27Friday -38.62 -117.99 -0.75 -197.66 -157.12Constant -377.40 -170.00 423.27 -83.92 -656.63R Square 0.92 0.95 0.94 0.97 0.93

Page 10: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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Cooling Load Index Comparison: ISO-NECoefficients of Annual Regression of Summer Daily Peaks and WTHI

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

In

dexed

to

1992

Trend:4/05 Trend:4/04 Actual:4/04 Actual:4/05

Page 11: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

11

Cooling Base Load Index Comparison: ISO-NEConstants of Annual Regression of Summer Daily Peaks and WTHI

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

In

dexed

to

1992

Trend:4/05 Trend:4/04 Actual:4/04 Actual:4/05

Page 12: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

12

ISO-NE Summer Peak Load FactorsA Measure of Energy to Seasonal Peak or "Peakiness"

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

71

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Years

Lo

ad

Facto

rs

Actual Weather Normal

Page 13: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

13

SECTION I.8 - SummariesSeasonal Peak Load Forecast Distributions for

Peak Load Forecast at Milder Than Expected Peak Load Forecast at More Extreme Than Expected Weather

Summer (MW)2004 24660 24875 25080 25415 25735 26045 26315 26755 27305 277552005 25190 25415 25625 25970 26305 26625 26905 27365 27935 284002006 25445 25670 25885 26235 26570 26895 27180 27640 28220 286902007 25680 25910 26120 26475 26815 27145 27430 27900 28485 289602008 25940 26170 26385 26740 27085 27415 27705 28180 28770 292552009 26230 26465 26680 27045 27390 27725 28015 28495 29090 295802010 26565 26800 27025 27390 27740 28080 28375 28860 29460 299552011 26975 27220 27440 27815 28170 28515 28815 29305 29915 304102012 27340 27585 27810 28190 28550 28900 29200 29700 30315 308202013 27655 27905 28135 28515 28880 29235 29540 30045 30660 31170

WTHI (1) 78.8 79 79.3 79.7 80.1 80.5 80.8 81.4 82 82.5

Dry-Bulb Temperature (2) 88.5 88.9 89.2 89.9 90.4 91.2 92.2 92.9 94.2 95.4

Probability of Forecast Being 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 5%

Winter (MW)2004/05 21820 21960 22045 22160 22370 22545 22725 22880 23255 236102005/06 22065 22200 22290 22405 22615 22795 22975 23135 23510 238652006/07 22290 22430 22515 22630 22845 23030 23210 23370 23750 241102007/08 22540 22685 22770 22890 23105 23290 23475 23635 24020 243852008/09 22810 22955 23045 23160 23380 23570 23750 23920 24310 246752009/10 23100 23250 23340 23460 23680 23870 24060 24225 24620 249902010/11 23455 23600 23695 23815 24040 24230 24425 24595 24985 253602011/12 23845 23995 24090 24210 24440 24635 24830 25000 25400 257802012/13 24120 24270 24365 24490 24720 24920 25115 25290 25690 260702013/14 24370 24525 24620 24745 24980 25180 25380 25555 25960 26350

Dry-Bulb Temperature (3) 10.8 9.7 9.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 4.4 3.3 0.9 -1.3

The tables above show the distributions around the seasonal reference peak load forecast (50%). The distributions are based on historical weather data with the reference case as the most likely or expected weather of 80.1 New England WTHI in the summer and 6.8 New England dry-bulb temperature in the winter. The 2003 actual summer peak load of 24685 MW occurred at a New England WTHI of 79.5 and dry-bulb temperature of 89.5.

FOOTNOTES:

(1) WTHI - A 3-DAY WEIGHTED TEMPERATURE-HUMIDITY INDEX FOR 8 NEW ENGLAND WEATHER STATIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER VARIABLES SEE http:/www.iso-ne.com/historical_data/daily_monthly/summary_definitions.html.

(2) DRY-BULB TEMPERATURE SHOWN IN THE SUMMER SEASON ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. WTHI IS THE WEATHER VARIABLE USED IN PRODUCING THE SUMMER PEAK LOAD FORECAST.

(3) DRY-BULB TEMPERATURE IS A WEIGHTED VALUE FROM 8 NEW ENGLAND WEATHER STATIONS.

NEPOOL CELT REPORT - APRIL 2004

ReferenceForecast atExpectedWeather

Page 14: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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ISO-NE 2004 Summer WTHI at Time of Daily Peak LoadsJune - August Non Holiday Weekdays

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

JU

N:8

J

UN

:9

JU

N:1

0

JU

N:1

5

JU

N:1

6

JU

N:1

7

JU

N:1

8

JU

N:2

3

JU

N:2

4

JU

N:2

5

JU

N:3

0

JU

L:1

J

UL:2

J

UL:6

J

UL:7

J

UL:8

J

UL:9

J

UL:1

2

JU

L:1

4

JU

L:1

5

JU

L:1

6

JU

L:1

9

JU

L:2

0

JU

L:2

1

JU

L:2

2

JU

L:2

3

JU

L:2

6

JU

L:2

9

JU

L:3

0

AU

G:2

A

UG

:3

AU

G:4

A

UG

:5

AU

G:9

A

UG

:10

AU

G:1

1

AU

G:1

2

AU

G:1

3

AU

G:1

7

AU

G:1

8

AU

G:1

9

AU

G:2

0

AU

G:2

3

AU

G:2

5

AU

G:2

6

AU

G:2

7

AU

G:3

0

AU

G:3

1

Non Holiday Weekdays

WT

HI

Actual WTHI WTHI Peak Expected to Occur at (80.1)

Page 15: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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ISO-NE 2004 Summer Actual & Weather Adjusted Daily Peak LoadsJune - August Non Holiday Weekdays

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

27000

JU

N:8

J

UN

:9

JU

N:1

0

JU

N:1

5

JU

N:1

6

JU

N:1

7

JU

N:1

8

JU

N:2

3

JU

N:2

4

JU

N:2

5

JU

N:3

0

JU

L:1

J

UL:2

J

UL:6

J

UL:7

J

UL:8

J

UL:9

J

UL:1

2

JU

L:1

4

JU

L:1

5

JU

L:1

6

JU

L:1

9

JU

L:2

0

JU

L:2

1

JU

L:2

2

JU

L:2

3

JU

L:2

6

JU

L:2

9

JU

L:3

0

AU

G:2

A

UG

:3

AU

G:4

A

UG

:5

AU

G:9

A

UG

:10

AU

G:1

1

AU

G:1

2

AU

G:1

3

AU

G:1

7

AU

G:1

8

AU

G:1

9

AU

G:2

0

AU

G:2

3

AU

G:2

5

AU

G:2

6

AU

G:2

7

AU

G:3

0

AU

G:3

1

Non Holiday Weekdays

MW

Actual Peak Weather Adjusted Peak WeatherNormal 25770

Page 16: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

16

ISO-NE Distribution of 2004 Summer Weather Adjusted Daily PeaksMedian & Upper/Lower Bounds versus Weather Normal Summer Peak

24500

25000

25500

26000

26500

27000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45

June-August Non Holiday Weekdays (Sorted Low to High)

MW

Weather Adjusted Daily Median 25810 Upper Bound 26055

Low er Bound 25565 Weather Normal 25770

Page 17: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

17

WTHI at Time of ISO-NE Summer Peak - SortedSummer Peak Expected to Occur at 80.1

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Years

Weig

hte

d T

em

pera

ture

/Hu

mid

ity In

dex

WTHI 80.1

Page 18: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

18

ISO-NE New England Extreme Weather Distribution : Week 30 A Three Day Weighted Temperatur-Humidity Index

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

WT

HI

WTHI 50/50 90/10

Page 19: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

19

Extreme Weather Based Distribution of Daily Peak Loads ISO-NE New England Week 30 of 2004 (April 2004 CELT)

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

MW

Load 50/50 (25735MW) 90/10 (27305MW)

Page 20: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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ISO-NE New England Summer Peak Forecast ErrorOne Year Ahead Forecast / Average Error Under 1%

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year Forecast Was Done

Perc

en

t E

rro

r

Page 21: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

21

ISO-NE 2001 Summer Peak Forecast Distributionand Actual Peak

2365023840

23980

24390

2475024967

25180

22500

23000

23500

24000

24500

25000

25500

90.450/50

91.2 92.2 92.9 94.290/10

95.2Actual

95.4

Temperature

MW

Page 22: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

22

ISO-NE 2003/2004 Winter Peak Forecast Distributionand Actual Peak

22010

22190

2237022520

2290022817

23250

21500

22000

22500

23000

23500

6.8 50/50

5.6 4.4 3.3 0.9 90/10

-0.7 Actual

-1.3

Temperature

MW

Page 23: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

23

Weather Distribution Where the 50/50 Seasonal Peak OccursWinter:Temperature Summer:Temperature/Humidity

1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

81

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Weeks in Year

WT

HI / T

em

pr

NEW ENGLAND SOUTHERN NORTHERN

Page 24: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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MEANS OF DAILY PEAK ISO-NE Weather DISTRIBUTIONSWTHI for Cooling / Temperatrure for Heating

24

34

44

54

64

74

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Weeks of Year

WT

HI

1963-1999 1964-2000 1965-2001 1982-2001 1992-2001

Page 25: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

25

50/50 Weekly Peak ISO-NE Weather DistributionsWTHI for Cooling / Temperature for Heating

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Weeks of Year

WTHI

1963-1999 1964-2000 1965-2001 1982-2001 1992-2001

Page 26: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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Means : 4/04 ISO-NE 2004 Weekly Peak Load Distributions

16000

18000

20000

22000

Weeks

MW

Page 27: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

27

Standard Devations : 4/04 ISO-NE 2004 Weekly Peak Load Distributions

0

600

1200

1800

2400

Weeks

MW

Page 28: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

28

4/04 ISO-NE 2004 Weekly Peak Load DistributionsThe 10/90, 50/50, and 90/10 Seasonal Peak Deciles

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

26000

28000

10/90 50/50 90/10

Page 29: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

29

Skewness : 4/04 ISO-NE 2004 Weekly Peak Load Distributions

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Weeks

Page 30: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

30

3rd Cumulants : 4/04 ISO-NE 2004 Weekly Peak Load Distributions

0

1000000000

2000000000

3000000000

4000000000

5000000000

6000000000

7000000000

8000000000

Weeks

Page 31: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

31

ISO-NE New England Hourly Loads : 1995 and 2002As Percent of Annual Peak

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Hours in Year

Perc

en

t o

f P

eak

1995 2002

Page 32: ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

32

Questions ?