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Introduction to the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools
David AttawayRob Feuerstein
February 24–25, 2016 | Washington, DC
FedGIS Conference
Overview
• ArcGIS Desktop Addin --- FREE• Set of tools for…
- Raster-based querying- Mobility and proximity data creation- Temporal analysis
Predictive Analysis Tools
Agenda:
• Introduction for ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools (PA Tools)- Overview- Functionality / Demo
• Versatility / Architecture of PA Tools • Web Based Predictive Analysis Tools
- Overview- Functionality / Demo
• Questions and Answers• Closing
Capabilities
• Predict suitable locations, and travel routes• Extremely fast to accommodate iterative analysis• Auto-generate analysis based on historic data• Repeatable and shareable workflows• Easy to use
Predictive Analysis Tools
Homeland Security
Stopping Smugglers
Environmental Management
Preservation
Law Enforcement
Fighting Drug Production
GeoDesign
Urban Planning
Landscape Architecture
Sustainability
Defense and Intel
Finding Enemy Targets
Medical Geography & Health
Susceptibility
Weather
Modeling / Forecasting
VersatilityVersatilityPredictive Analysis Tools
Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life
Build Query(Query Editor)
AnalyzeResults
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Share Analysis
Final AnalysisMap
Define Question
Prepare Data(Geoprocessing,
Speed Model Builder)
Predictive Site Suitability
Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of Life
Perform Statistical Analysis
(Query Generator)
Build Query(Query Editor)
AnalyzeResults
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Share Analysis
Final AnalysisMap
Define Question
Prepare Data(Geoprocessing,
Speed Model Builder)
Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life
Build Query(Query Editor)
AnalyzeResults
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Final AnalysisMap
Define Question
Prepare Data(Geoprocessing,
Speed Model Builder)
Predictive Site Suitability
Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of LifePerform
Statistical Analysis
(QFIT)
Build Query(Query Editor)
AnalyzeResults
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Define Question
Prepare Data(Geoprocessing,
Speed Model Builder)
Predicting Drug Trafficking Locations and Movements
• Where will they likely have a farm site?• How quickly can they transport their product?• Use doctrinal knowledge to set movement constraints• Use past data to optimize searching for farms• Auto-generate search criteria• Find likely travel routes from the farms to the ocean
Demo Scenario
Rob Feuerstein & David Attaway
Predicting Drug Trafficking Locations and Movements
The Problem…
Drug Grow Analysis - 2013
• Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows
• Aspect• Land Ownership • Roads • Slope• Streams and Rivers • Trails • Vegetation Over Story• Vegetation Under Story• Water Bodies
Q-FIT
Drug Grow Analysis - 2013
• Distance from Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows: 10
• Slope Value (0-41): 8• Distance from Streams and Rivers : 10• Distance from Trails: 3 • Presence of Vegetation Over Story: 1• Presence of Vegetation Under Story: 1• Distance from Water Bodies: 3
Query Editor
Drug Grow Analysis - 2013Final Result
5 Lessons Learned - 2013
• Major transportation routes & major population areas• Imagery analysis revealed clusters of grows downstream from reservoirs • Special agent observed several grows in an area cleared by fire• Grows clusters appear on outer edges of the forest• Output needs to be continuous
Drug Grow Analysis - 2014
• Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows
• Slope• Streams and Rivers • Trails • Vegetation Over Story• Vegetation Under Story• Water Bodies
Query Generator
• Major Highways• Roads• Fire History• Artificial Streams and Rivers• Forest Boundary
Drug Grow Analysis - 2014
• Distance from Drug Grows- 100m - 10- 350M - 8
• Slope- 0-7.59 - 8- 7.6-17 - 7- 17-26.5 - 6- 26-41 - 5
• Water Bodies- 20-1600m - 5- 1600-3200m - 3
Query Editor• Vegetation Over Story
- MP, DP and PP - 7• Vegetation Under Story
- QC and QK - 2• Trails
- 200m - 7- 500m - 6- 800m - 5
• Streams - Artificial- 0-800m - 10- 801-1600m - 7
• Streams - Perennial- 300m - 10- 800m - 7
• Forest boundary- 0-200m - 10 - 201-800m - 7
• Highways -- 3200m - 8- 6400m - 6- 11200m - 4
• Roads - 1600m - 8- 4800m - 6- 9600m - 4
Drug Grow Analysis - 2014Final Result
2013 VS 2014Final Result
Road Map…
• Now- Version 1.3 is available on the Resource Center- Previous Versions 1.2 & 1.1 ( ArcMap 10.2.x) and Query Editor ( ArcMap 10.1)- Predictive Analysis Web 1.0.1 for Web AppBuilder 1.2
• Next (Coming Soon)- Predictive Analysis Web Tools version 1.2 w/ Query Generator
• Future / Ideas- More web capabilities- Desktop tool automation- Data Decay parameters- More…
Predictive Analysis Tools
Predictive Analysis Web Tools
• What they are…- JavaScript Widgets for the Query Editor / Query Inspector- Compatible with ArcGIS Web App Builder
• What they do…- Queries as fast as desktop version- Supports large data, and live services- Pre-defined queries for reuse and collaboration
• When they are available…- Stand alone version JUST RELEASED on the resource center- The next release of the Ops Server from Defense Solutions team
Predictive Analysis Tools
Rob Feuerstein
Predictive Analysis Web Application
Predictive Analysis Web 1.0.1 for Web AppBuilder 1.2 -http://www.esri.com/apps/products/download/index.cfm?fuseaction=download.main&downloadid=1832
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Networking ReceptionSmithsonian National Museum of the American IndianThursday, 6:30 p.m. – 9:30 p.m.Bus pickup on L Street
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GIS Solutions Expo, Hall AWednesday, 12:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.Welcome Social, 5:15 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.Thursday, 10:45 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.
• Exhibitors• Hands-on Learning Lab• Demo Theaters• Esri Showcase
