INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Transforming the Way We Use Energy Richard A. Bradley, PhD Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Transforming the Way We Use Energy

Richard A. Bradley, PhDHead, Energy Efficiency and

Environment DivisionInternational Energy Agency


CO2 emissions must approach zero for all stabilization levels, even for 1000ppm which is nearly 3

times current concentrations.

LONG-TERM MITIGATION OBJECTIVE

IPCC 2001

Source: Adapted from

Haroon S. Kheshgi


Other Objectives

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Tan

kers

0 10 20 30 40 50

OECD

Latin America

Transition economies

Other Asia

Africa

GDP per capita in thousand $(2000) using PPPs

2030 2002 1971

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

TPE

S -

toe

per

capi

ta

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1971

Mt o

f CO

2

Coal Oil Gas1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Energy Security Economic Growth

Bridging the Welfare GapEnvironmental Protection


Unconventional Liquids and Gases

40,000 PgC

Atmosphere 750 PgC

FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES

Coal

5,000 to 8,000 PgC

Oil 130 PgC

Gas 120 PgC

Vegetation 610 PgC

Atmosphere 790 PgC


Mitigation Policy & Technology

• Capital stock turnover—You don’t kill the “cash cow.” Thus, the margin for learning is the new capital stock market.

• Increasing marginal cost of rapid deployment.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Transport Links & Urban Development

Buildings Stock - Res/Comm

Power Stations

Refinery Processes

Elec. Trans, Telecom, Pipelines

Manufacturing Equip

Commercial HVAC

Commercial Vehc

Automobiles

Residential. HVAC

Res. Water Heaters

Household Appliances

Capital Stock Turnover RatesCapital Stock Turnover Rates

Source: Adapted from PNL/U of Maryland

Early market signals and technology R&D canwork together to assist the market transition – Policies

and R&D are inseparable!


Are We On Track?


Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

In 2030, CO2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mill

ion

tonn

es o

f C

O2

Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario


Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030

Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute more than half & renewables 20% of the reduction in

emissions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

49%

10%

8%

12%

21%

OECD

63%

1%

21%

15%

Transition economies

67%

7%

17%

4%5%

Developing countries

58%

World

End-use efficiency gains

7%

Fuel switching in end uses

5%

Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

10%

Increased nuclear in power generation

20%

Increased renewables in power generation


RD&D budget vs. Crude Oil Pricesall data are in 2004 real USD

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Conservation Fossil Fuels Renewable Energy Nuclear Fission

Nuclear Fusion Power & Storage technologies Other Real Crude Oil Prices

JAN 06


The Transition Challenges

Near term policy implementationEnergy efficiency

Technology Development and Rapid Diffusion

Institutional change


Actual Energy Use and Hypothetical Energy Use Without Intensity Reductions,

IEA-11

49 %

Exa

jou

les

Hypothetical Energy Use without Savings

Actual Energy Use

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Additional Energy Usewithout Intensity Declines =Energy Savings

Without 25 years of energy savings, energy consumption would have been almost 50% higher


Projected additional potential savings Projected additional potential savings by end-use for IEA-Europeby end-use for IEA-Europe

Projected additional potential savings Projected additional potential savings by end-use for IEA-Europeby end-use for IEA-Europe

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Other uses

Circulation pumps

PCs

Standby

Television

Dishwashing

Clothes-drying

Clothes-washing

Refrigeration

Lighting

Cooking

Water heating

Space cooling

Space heating

TWh/year


Key lighting findings: no-policies, Key lighting findings: no-policies, current-policies and LLCC-scenarioscurrent-policies and LLCC-scenarios

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Lig

hti

ng

ele

ctr

icit

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

No Policies

Current Policies

LLCC from 2008


Recommended illumination levels vary

Source: Market Research on the use of energy-efficient lighting in the commercial sector – C.Kofod et al


Lighting level acceptance – a moving variable?


Policy Challenges for the FuturePolicy Challenges for the Future Considerable potentials for improved energy

efficiency still exist, but… Energy efficiency potential has some of the

character of energy reserves. Public policy efforts are essential to:

Internalise the cost of environmental consequences in energy prices.

Adopt norms and standards.Stimulate the development of more

efficient technologies. Energy efficiency is not easy, nor glamorous –

IT’S THE SMALL THINGS THAT MATTER!


The G8 Gleneagles Plan of ActionThe G8 Gleneagles Plan of ActionIt builds the analytical foundation for targeting

market failures and applying the appropriate response – for mapping out the energy efficiency potential.Where are we using energy in industry and

how efficiently? – Assessment of energy performance experience.

What policies are in place? – a database on policies, codes and standards by major sector

How can we do better? – analysis and identification of best policy practice.

Brings major energy users together in a dialogue.

Documents

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Transforming the Way We Use Energy Richard A. Bradley, PhD Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment