INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE International Workshop on Power Generation with Carbon Capture and Storage in India New

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

International Workshop on Power Generation with

Carbon Capture and Storagein India

New Delhi, 22-23 January 2008

International Energy Perspective,World Energy Outlook and the

Role of CCS

Dr. Antonio PflügerHead, Energy Technology Collaboration Division

International Energy Agency


Coal’s share of total primary energy supply and power generation, 2005

ref: IEA Coal Information 2007, IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2007 & IEA statistics

Global Electricity Generation by FuelGlobal Primary Energy Supply

64.1%1 735 MtoeChina

coal’s shareTPES

537 Mtoe

2 340 Mtoe5 548 Mtoe

11 435 Mtoe

38.4%India

23.7%USA20.4%OECD25.3%World

64.1%1 735 MtoeChina

coal’s shareTPES

537 Mtoe

2 340 Mtoe5 548 Mtoe

11 435 Mtoe

38.4%India


78.1%2 497 TWhChina

coal’s shareelec. gen.

699 TWh

4 268 TWh10 376 TWh18 235 TWh

68.7%India


78.1%2 497 TWhChina

coal’s shareelec. gen.

699 TWh

4 268 TWh10 376 TWh18 235 TWh

68.7%India



World hard coal reserves (and resources) in top 11 countries, 2005

Colombia7Gt

Russia147Gt

China96Gt

Poland8Gt

Ukraine16Gt

Kazakhstan28Gt

South Africa49Gt

Australia67Gt

India92Gt

USA219Gt

Brazil6Gt

100Gt resource+

100Gt proven reserve


Sectoral breakdown of India’s energy-related CO2 emissions (1971-2005)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Millio

n t

on

s o

f C

O2

Pow er and heat (includingautoproduction)

Other energy industries

Manufacturing industries andconstruction

Transport

Other sectors


World coal production and CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use

1971-2006

ref: IEA Coal Information 2007, IEA CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuel Combustion 1971-2004 & IEA estimates

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1971 1981 1991 2001

million tonnes

brown coal

ROW

India

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30GtCO2

global CO2

CO2 estimatesfor 2005 & 2006


IEA Ministerial ConclusionsMay 2007

We will promote clean coal and press ahead through the IEA and the CSLF with the full scale demonstration and early deployment of CCS, paying due regard to regulatory and safety issues.


G8 Summit in Heiligendamm 2007 Accelerating Development and Deployment of CCS

reinforcing (…) commitment made under the Gleneagles and St. Petersburg Plans of Action to support the initiatives taken by the IEA and CSLF

encouraging (…) governments to design mechanisms to stimulate the construction and operation of a growing number of large-scale demonstrations of sustainable fossil fuels technologies in commercial power generation

encouraging industry to consider the concept of capture ready when developing new fossil fuel power plant


“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our

shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas

emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing

energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction

with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“

“We will work to accelerate the development and commercialization of carbon capture and storage technology

G8 - Gleneagles Communiqué July 2005


Role of CCS in Mitigating CORole of CCS in Mitigating CO22 Emissions Emissions in 2050 – IEA’s 2006 ETP Map Scenarioin 2050 – IEA’s 2006 ETP Map Scenario

(Return to 2003 Emissions)(Return to 2003 Emissions)

CCS in all scenarios 20 – 28% emissions reduction compared to Basis scenario

© OECD/IEA - 2007

World Energy Outlook 2007Reference Scenario

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Conclusions

Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path

China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size - faster than expected

Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system

New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution but more is needed to achieve a CO2 stabilization of 450ppm

Next 10 years are criticalThe pace of capacity additions will be most rapid Technology will be “locked-in” for decadesGrowing tightness in oil & gas markets

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Reference Scenario:

World Primary Energy Demand

Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

billio

n to

nnes

of o

il equ

ivale

ntOther renewablesBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilCoal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

billio

n to

nnes

of o

il equ

ivale

ntOther renewablesBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilCoal

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

billio

n to

nnes

(Gt) Reference Scenario 42 Gt

27 Gt

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Reference Scenario:

India’s Primary Energy Demand by Fuel

Large increase in coal demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mto

e

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Reference Scenario:

Primary Energy Demand in Selected Countries

India becomes the third largest energy consuming nation in the world in 2030

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

India China Brazil Russia Japan United States

Mto

e20052030

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Reference Scenario:

World’s Top Five CO2 Emitters

2005 2015 2030

Gt rank Gt rank Gt rank

US 5.8 1 6.4 2 6.9 2

China 5.1 2 8.6 1 11.4 1

Russia 1.5 3 1.8 4 2.0 4

Japan 1.2 4 1.3 5 1.2 5

India 1.1 5 1.8 3 3.3 3

India becomes the world’s third-largest energy-related emitter of CO2 by 2015

© OECD/IEA - 2007

India’s per-capita emissions double by 2030, but remain well below OECD levels

Reference Scenario:

Per-Capita Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2030

2015

2005

tonnes of CO2 per person

OECD

Other developingcountries

India

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Coal remains the backbone of India’s power sector

Reference Scenario:

India’s Electricity Generation Mix

- 200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2005-2015 2015-2030

TWh

CoalOilGasNuclearHydroBiomassOther renewables

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Alternative Policy ScenarioKey Trends in India

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario, but they level off in the Alternative Policy Scenario

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

billio

n to

nnes

(Gt) Reference Scenario 42 Gt

Alternative Policy Scenario

34 Gt

19%

27 Gt

© OECD/IEA - 2007

New policies could cut energy demand by 17% in 2030 & boost the contribution of non-fossil fuels

Alternative Policy Scenario:

India’s Primary Energy Demand Compared with the Reference Scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Otherrenewables

Mto

e20052030 Reference Scenario2030 Alternative Policy Scenario

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Most of the 27% reduction in CO2 emissions comes from measures to improve energy efficiency


India’s CO2 Emissions Compared with the Reference Scenario

NuclearRenewables and biofuelsSwitching from coal to gas and improved efficiency on the supply sideEnd-use electricity-efficiency measuresEnd-use fuel-efficiency measures

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gt o

f CO

2 35%18%

5%

19%24%

Alternative Policy ScenarioReference Scenario

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Higher demand-side investment is more than outweighed by lower capital needs on the supply side, especially in the power sector


India’s Energy Investment

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Power generation

Transmission

Distribution

Oil

Coal

Gas

Demand-side investment

Net savings

billion dollars (2006)

Change in Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure Compared with the Reference Scenario, 2006-

2030

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Households spend a lot less on fuel, thanks mainly to more efficient cars & electrical appliances


India’s Annual Energy-Related Expenditure per Household

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Domestic needs Transport services

dolla

rs (2

006)

20052030 Reference Scenario2030 Alternative Policy Scenario

© OECD/IEA - 2007

Summing Up

India, like China, is one of the emerging giants of the world economy & international energy markets

India’s energy demand is set to rise sharply absent new policies

Imports of oil, gas & coal & emissions of CO2

and local pollutants are set to carry on risingConsequences for energy security & climate

change are alarmingChallenge for India, as for all countries, is to

achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system

Strong commitment needed to implement policies & create an attractive investment environment

© OECD/IEA - 2007

450 ppm Stabilisation Case

© OECD/IEA - 2007

CO2 Emissions 450ppm Stabilisation Case

By 2030, emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt, a reduction of 19 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gt o

f CO 2

CCS in industryCCS in power generationNuclearRenewablesSwitching from coal to gasEnd Use electricity efficiency

End Use fuel efficiency

Reference Scenario

450 Stabilisation Case27 Gt

42 Gt

23 Gt

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

© OECD/IEA - 2007

-5 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

TWh

Fossil CCS

Fossil fuel

Hydro

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossil fuel early retirement

450 ppm Stabilization Case -Electricity Generation

By 2030 28% of coal fired (310 GW – some 620 plants) and

13% of gas fired power production will be from plants with CCS

© OECD/IEA - 2007

3.22.0

0.6

2.1

2.94.2

0.6

1.2

1.5

0.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

ReferenceScenario

Alternative PolicyScenario

450 StabilisationCase

$ tri

llion

(200

6)

Nuclear

Renewables

Fossil fuels with CCS

Fossil fuels

WEO 2007 Cumulative Investmentsin Electricity Generation

CCS absorbs 1.5 trn US$ (20%) of total cumulative investments

(2006-2030) for power generation in 450ppm stabilisation case


IEA Draft Conclusions and Recommendations on CCS (1)

For achieving stabilization of CO2 concentration

in the atmosphere globally, CCS is part of

technology portfolios in current scenarios Demonstrating CO2 Capture and Storage and

Bridging the Financial Gap Commit at least 20 industrial size demonstration projects by

2010; start broad deployment by 2020

Taking Concerted International Action Build capacity, share information, create financial support Include CCS in the CDM in December 2008



Create a Value for CO2 for Commercializing CCS Governments should introduce appropriate

instruments, such as emissions trading or tax treatment by 2010

Establishing Legal and Regulatory Frameworks Needed by 2010, for safe, large-scale storage of CO2

Communicating with the Public Critical to CCS deployment Needs to be fostered, resources to be dedicated



Infrastructure Planning needs to be started when pilot projects

become operational. Transboundary effects need to be taken into account

Retrofit with CO2 Capture The IEA believes that any developer of a new fossil

fuel power station, considering the future value of investments, should have regard to what might be required for retrofit with CCS and should avoid steps that might make retrofit unnecessarily difficult. Some developers have adopted such product policies.

Monitoring and Assessment


Carbon Capture and Storage Current IEA DeliverablesReport on Capture-Ready Plants

(IEA GHG Programme - 2007)3 workshops on near term opportunitiesLegal Aspects of Storing CO2

(book, launched 22 June 2007)CO2 capture and storage: a key CO2

abatement option (book - early 2008)Input to key national and international

eventsRecommendations to the G8 in 2008


Ideas for the Way Forward

IEA willProvide further technology roadmapsAssess and monitor implementation Assist in facilitating implementationContribute to international activities

on legal and regulatory issues Conduct further analysis of potential

and scenarios taking into account current national programmes

Documents

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE International Workshop on Power Generation with Carbon Capture and Storage in India New