KEMENTERIAN PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL/ BADAN PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL

Keynote Speech

Integrating Population Dynamics into Urban Development Plans: Sustainable Cities, Human Mobility and International Migration

Deputy Minister for Population and Labor

Kementerian PPN/Bappenas

Tuesday, November 28th 2017

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Outline

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• Overview

• Challenges

• Policy responses

Overview: Urban Development

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Urban Population Significantly Rose between 1971-2015

4

20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000

0-4

10-14

20-14

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

Thousand

Female Male

1971

119.2 millions 55.1 years

14.6%

Total Population Life expectancy Urban population

Source: Census 1971 & 2010, Intercensal Survey 2015, Statistics Indonesia

237.6 millions 69.8 years

49.7%

20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Thousand

Female Male

2010

Total Population Life expectancy Urban population

255.1 millions 70.8 years

53.1%

20.000 10.000 0 10.000 20.000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Thousand

Female Male

2015

Total Population Life expectancy Urban population

• Indonesia has been experiencing population structural changes in the last few decades as a result of successful community-based family planning program in 1970s

• In 2015, Indonesia had the largest productive age group in the region • During the same period, urban population has increased as much as 7 (seven) times

Unequal Distribution of Urban Population Among Regions

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Urban population is

estimated to rise

from 53,1% in

2015 to 69,1% in

2035

In 2045, we project that development of economic centers will create more

urban and “more developed” rural outside

Java Island

135

247

237

264

727

817

1.037

1.263

1.188

1.339

15.478

0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000

Indonesia

Riau Islands

Lampung

NTT

Bali

East Java

Central Java

Banten

DIY

West Java

DKI Jakarta

Source: Statistics Indonesia (2017)

(per sq.km)

Urbans with highest population density are in Java island.

Projected Population per Island in 2045 Provinces with Highest Population Density in 2016

Source: UN Population Prospect 2010-2085

Source: Perhitungan Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2045, Bappenas (2017)

Large disparities of urban population between western and eastern part of Indonesia

Urban Agglomeration as an Engine of Economic Growth

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0,67%

1,21%

2,18%

2,24%

3,08%

6,55%

16,20%

19,15%

Sarbagita

Mamminasata

Kedungsepur

Mebidangro

Bandung Raya

Gerbangkertosusilo

DKI Jakarta

Jabodetabek

Contribution of Metropolitan Areas to GDP in 2015

More than 90% of the richest Indonesians reside in Jabodetabek, controlling more than 50% of financial wealth

All metropolitan areas have contributed more than one third of National GDP in 2015

Almost half of the urban contribution to the National GDP comes from DKI Jakarta

Source: Boston Consulting Group (2017)

Challenges

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Impact of Population Dynamics on Sustainable Development

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Source: Salim et al. (2015)

• Population structural changes in Indonesia have affected the characteristics of consumers & producers.

• Currently, with emerging number of working population, consumption pattern has evolved, for example more consumers goods, fuel for transportation, or even tourism demand.

• In the future, Indonesia also has to prepare for the ageing population, low fertility, low mortality, and more dynamic population mobility within and outside the country.

• Sustainable Development Goals is expected to lead the policy into more balance population growth and mobility.

Urban Development and Its Sustainability

9 Sources: BPS (2016), Ministry of Transportation (2016), JICA (2014)

Massive land conversion in urban areas

• Low density areas rapidly change into high

density areas.

• Farming land and open green areas are

converted into residential areas

Slow development of mass transportation in

urban areas

• Transformation of main transportation system

is not as fast as urban population growth

• Few cities with railway system and

interconnected transportation system

More population vs waste management system

Urban poverty and income inequality

More migration from rural areas due to climate

change

Drivers • Urbanization • Population growth • Climate change • Economic

development

Pressures • Natural resources

consumption • GHGs & CO2 emission • Energy • Raw materials (water, food) • Land expansion • Intensity of Disaster • Poverty & inequality

Outcomes • Lower quality and

environmental support • Energy, water and food

insecurity • Higher poverty incidences

and inequality • Increase in social conflict

and security threat • Higher risk & vulnerability • Threat to conservation

Responses Sustainable urbanization

Future Challenges

Access to Basic Services, 2016

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Access to drinking water: 92,44%

Access to Sanitation : 90,42%

(14% already included safe category according to the World Bank (2013))

Open defecation : 11.08% (28.8 million people)

Data Source : Susenas 2007-2016. Indonesia Statistics

In 2016, Jakarta still has

conventional type of

sewerage system

40,54% Households do not own house

Policy Responses

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Liveable Smart and Competitive Green and Resilient

City with Local Identity Integrated between Cities

and Regions

Transparent, Accountable and

Responsive Governance

Targets of Urban Development

Three Primary Aspects to Promote Livable Cities

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Economic

Social Development

Environment

• To promote growth for sustainable consumption and production in urban and rural areas • To promote decent jobs • To promote diversified jobs in rural areas • To strengthen connectivity between urban and rural areas

• To eradicate capability deprivation • To ensure access to higher quality education • To promote health & well-being, through universal health insurance coverage

• To promote the use of renewable energy • To provision of clean water • To enable pollution free air • To ensure access to healthy and affordable food • To improve waste management

Public Private Partnerships to Promote Sustainable Urban Development

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Provision of Basic Services, especially for the poorest 40% in urban areas

Subsiding construction of basic service facilities in slums area

Public – private partnerships in building the public areas to improve the sanitation system and access to drinking water

Increasing understanding on the importance of sanitation and healthy lifestyle

Build mass transportation based road, rail, and intermoda to increase public transport share in urban areas

Developing Mass-Rapid-Transportation, Light-Rail-Transit, and Bus-Way at the urban areas: Jakarta-Cibubur, Jakarta-Bekasi, Palembang,

Bandung, Surabaya

Increasing capacity of commuter system between cities

Developing inter-moda transportation system from the airport to

reduce congestion from and to the cities as well as to reduce fuel use

Improving the capacity and quality of urban rail-road network

Transforming to cleaner and more energy efficient public transportation

Transformation of metropolitan and big cities to SMART CITY for more efficient energy utilization and environmentally friendly infrastructure

Building smart city with six principles: Smart Governance, Smart Economy, Smart Mobility, Smart Environment, Smart People, and Smart Living

Strengthening public, private, and community partnerships to build soft and hard infrastructure in developing smart cities

Improving Productivity Human Resorces for More Innovations

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Improving technical skills and competence of working age population to adopt with new technology

Partnerships with industries to develop curriculum for the formal education, vocational, and training system

Establishing and/or adopting national or international standard of competencies in urban priority sectors

Partnerships with industries for mentoring program and entrepreuneur aprenticeships

Critical Link of Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development

Source: Salim et al. (2015)

Population Dynamics:

Demographic Dividend & Urbanization

Capacity Building & Knowledge Management

Productivity Growth

Sustainable Development

INNOVATIONS

• Sharing Economy

• Product development

• Smart local tourism

• Financial technology

Thank You

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