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RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND SYSTEM SAFETY Reliability Engineering and System Safety is an international journal devoted to the development and application of methods for the enhancement of the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to achieve a balance between academic material and practical applications. The following topics are within the scope of the journal: methods for reliability and probabilistic safety assessment; model and para- meter uncertainties; aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, sensiti- vity analysis, data collection and analysis; engineering judgement and expert opinions; human reliability; test and maintenance policies; models for ageing and life extension; systems analysis of the impact of earthquakes, fires, tornadoes, winds, floods, etc.; codes, standards and safety criteria; operator decision support systems; software reliability; methods and applications of automatic fault detection and diagnosis; dynamic reliability; design and evaluation of man machine systems and human interfaces; design innovation for safety and reliability; safety culture; accident investigation and management. The journal does not normally publish articles that involve fuzzy sets and related non-probabilistic methods unless they contribute significantly to the solution of substantive problems related to the analysis of real systems. The journal will contain contributed material in the form of original research papers, review articles, industrial case studies, safety recommendations, and short communications. Editor-in-Chief C. GUEDES SOARES University of Lisbon, Instituto Superior Técnico Avenida Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal Fax: (+51)–21 847-4015 E-mail: [email protected] Editorial Board Tunc Aldemir The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA John Andrews University of Nottingham, Nottingham, England, UK Terje Aven University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway Tim Bedford Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland Christophe Berenguer Grenoble Institute of Technology, Grenoble, France Harold S. Blackman Boise State University Boise, ID, USA Emanuele Borgonovo Università Bocconi, Milano, Italy Marko Cepin University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia David W. Coit Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA Maxim Finkelstein University of the Free State Free State, South Africa Armen der Kiureghian University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA Seth Guikema Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore Kjell Hauskan University of Stavanger, Norway Jon C. Helton Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Per Hokstad SINTEF Industrial Management, Safety and Reliability, Trondheim, Norway Chris Johnson University of Glasgow, UK Renyan Jiang Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, Hunan 410114, China Vasiliy Krivtsov Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, MI, USA James H. Lambert University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA Bernt Leira Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway Maurice Lemaire Institut Français de Mécanique Avancée, Aubiere, France Nancy Leveson Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Gregory Levitin The Israel Electric Corp, Haifa, Israel Bev Littlewood City University London, London, UK Sankaran Mahadevan Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA Sebastian S. Martorell Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Valencia, Spain Rob Melchers The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia Mohammad Modarres University of Maryland, Maryland, MD, USA Toshio Nakagawa Aichi Institute of Technology, Toyota, Japan Mustapha Nourelfath Université Laval, Quebec (Quebec), Canada M.D. Pandey University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada I. A. Papazoglou Institute of Nuclear Technology and Radiation Protection, Greece Antoine B. Rauzy École Polytechnique, Palaiseau Cedex, France Claudio Rocco Universidad Central de Venezuela Francesca Saglietti University of Erlangen-Nuremberg Erlangen, Germany Philip Scarf University of Salford Manchester, United Kingdom Poong H. Seong Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), South Korea Rolf Skjong Det Norske Veritas, Norway Curtis Smith INL, Idaho Falls, ID, USA John D. Sorensen Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark Kishor S. Trivedi Duke University, Durham, NC, USA Jussi K. Vaurio Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Loviisa, Finland Wenbin Wang University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China Wei-Chang Yeh National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC Enrico Zio Ecole Centrale Paris-Supelec, Milan, Italy Ming J Zuo University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada 1 Deceased Founding Editor F. R. FARMER 1 Past Editor in Chief G. E. APOSTOLAKIS Associate Editors JOSEPH SALEH Georgia Institute of Technology, USA MIN XIE City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

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RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND SYSTEM SAFETY

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is an international journal devoted to the development and application of methods for the enhancement of the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to achieve a balance between academic material and practical applications.

The following topics are within the scope of the journal: methods for reliability and probabilistic safety assessment; model and para-meter uncertainties; aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, sensiti-vity analysis, data collection and analysis; engineering judgement

and expert opinions; human reliability; test and maintenance policies; models for ageing and life extension; systems analysis of the impact of earthquakes, fires, tornadoes, winds, floods, etc.; codes, standards and safety criteria; operator decision support systems; software reliability; methods and applications of automatic fault detection and diagnosis; dynamic reliability; design and evaluation of man machine systems and human interfaces; design innovation for safety and reliability; safety culture; accident investigation and management. The journal does not normally publish articles that involve fuzzy sets and related non-probabilistic methods unless they contribute significantly to the solution of substantive problems related to the analysis of real systems.

The journal will contain contributed material in the form of original research papers, review articles, industrial case studies, safety recommendations, and short communications.

Editor-in-ChiefC. GUEDES SOARES

University of Lisbon, Instituto Superior Técnico

Avenida Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, PortugalFax: (+51)–21 847-4015 E-mail: [email protected]

Editorial BoardTunc Aldemir

The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

John Andrews

University of Nottingham, Nottingham, England, UK

Terje Aven

University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway

Tim Bedford

Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland

Christophe Berenguer

Grenoble Institute of Technology, Grenoble, France

Harold S. Blackman

Boise State UniversityBoise, ID, USA

Emanuele Borgonovo

Università Bocconi, Milano, Italy

Marko Cepin

University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia

David W. Coit

Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA

Maxim Finkelstein

University of the Free StateFree State, South Africa

Armen der Kiureghian

University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA

Seth Guikema

Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore

Kjell Hauskan

University of Stavanger, Norway

Jon C. Helton

Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Per Hokstad

SINTEF Industrial Management, Safety and Reliability, Trondheim, Norway

Chris Johnson

University of Glasgow, UK

Renyan Jiang

Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, Hunan 410114, China

Vasiliy Krivtsov

Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, MI, USA

James H. Lambert

University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA

Bernt Leira

Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Maurice Lemaire

Institut Français de Mécanique Avancée, Aubiere, France

Nancy Leveson

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Gregory Levitin

The Israel Electric Corp, Haifa, Israel

Bev Littlewood

City University London, London, UK

Sankaran Mahadevan

Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA

Sebastian S. Martorell

Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Valencia, Spain

Rob Melchers

The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Mohammad Modarres

University of Maryland, Maryland, MD, USA

Toshio Nakagawa

Aichi Institute of Technology, Toyota, Japan

Mustapha Nourelfath

Université Laval, Quebec (Quebec), CanadaM.D. Pandey

University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada

I. A. Papazoglou

Institute of Nuclear Technology andRadiation Protection, GreeceAntoine B. Rauzy

École Polytechnique, Palaiseau Cedex, FranceClaudio Rocco

Universidad Central de VenezuelaFrancesca Saglietti

University of Erlangen-NurembergErlangen, GermanyPhilip Scarf

University of SalfordManchester, United KingdomPoong H. Seong

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), South KoreaRolf Skjong

Det Norske Veritas, NorwayCurtis Smith

INL, Idaho Falls, ID, USAJohn D. Sorensen

Aalborg University, Aalborg, DenmarkKishor S. Trivedi

Duke University, Durham, NC, USAJussi K. Vaurio

Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Loviisa, FinlandWenbin Wang

University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China

Wei-Chang Yeh

National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC

Enrico Zio

Ecole Centrale Paris-Supelec, Milan, Italy

Ming J Zuo

University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada

1Deceased

Founding EditorF. R. FARMER1

Past Editor in ChiefG. E. APOSTOLAKIS

Associate EditorsJOSEPH SALEH

Georgia Institute of Technology, USA

MIN XIECity University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong