Influence of temperature variations during a cold period on the conditions of life of the population in East Siberia

55

Influence of Temperature Variations During a Cold Period on the Conditions of Life of the Population in East Siberia

L. B. Bashalkhanova and E. V. MaksyutovaInstitute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia

e-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]

Received March 25, 2013

Abstract—On the territory of East Siberia, the positive deviations of mean monthly air temperatures from long-term annual mean air temperatures for the past 30 years (1981−2010) were caused by the shortening of the low-temperature periods. The largest decrease of the number of days with a daily mean temperature below −25 °C is recorded in the southern and middle parts of the macroregion under conditions of a moderate, strong and very strong discomfort. On the other hand, the resulting range of variation in the number of days with a mean daily temperature below −25 °C and the duration of the heating period remain within the long-term values. A slight rise in mean temperature for the heating period entails a marked reduction in degree-days.DOI: 10.1134/S1875372814010089Keywords: deviations of mean monthly air temperatures, number of days with low-temperature limits, duration of the heating period, discomfort of climate.

INTRODUCTIONThe Federal Law of RF “On the Subsistence

Minimum” [1], and other legal and regulatory documents [2, 3] provide for measures of social support in order to make up for the impact of the rigorous climate on human health, life and production activity. However, the system of social benefits still remains an issue of extended discussion [4, 5]. Furthermore, published evidence [6, 7] concerning the possible consequences of climate change is interpreted ambiguously. The studies reported by Rosgidromet (Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring) [7−9] show concern about the current and expected changes of climate. According to leading scientists [10, 11], positive temperature trends and growth rates as observed over the last several decades are due to the natural and well as anthropogenic factors.

FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEMThe climatic conditions of East Siberia have a

considerable effect on the human life. The conditions of rigorous winters with a long low-temperature period impose increasingly stringent requirements on the human life support system. As is known, air temperature is a critical factor that is responsible for a favorable (thermal comfort) or unfavorable (discomfort) impact on human body. The combined effect of a number of other factors (wind velocity, air humidity, disturbances of light regime, etc.) either enhances or attenuates the manifestation of comfort (discomfort) of climate. Taking into consideration the combined effect of the intensity and duration of the main meteorological

parameters on the human life, it was possible to determine the assessment limits for discomfort levels of the climate in East Siberia (moderate, strong, very strong, severe, and extremely severe) [5]. Also, the intensity of the parameters points to its significance, and the duration (the number of days) indicates the degree of enhancement of discomfort, and the measure of the necessary expenses connected with the life support system.

In the interests of scientific-practical support of a number of economic tasks, the commonest approach implies using the duration of mean daily temperatures below certain limits. First and foremost it is the period with the mean daily temperature below 8 ºC (the heating season), and the number of days with the mean daily temperature below −25 ºС, which serves as one of the limiting factors when assessing the recreation resources of a winter season [12] (overcooling of human body). It is known that the operating efficiency of machines and mechanisms can decrease substantially at low temperatures. It was established that the number of failures of machine elements made of carbon steels increases at the air temperature below −25 ºC, and the operation of some types of equipment ceases at −30 to −35 ºC. The number of days with the aforementioned limits, and also the periods with lower temperatures (below −40 and −45 ºC) affect human health, life and production activity. In this context, it is important to reveal significant (for the life of the population) air temperature changes of the cold period in East Siberia for the last several decades (1981−2010) and assess their influence on the predetermined assessment limits of a macroregion’s climate discomfort levels.

ISSN 1875-3728, Geography and Natural Resources, 2014, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 55-62. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2014.Original Russian Text © L.B. Bashalkhanova, E.V. Maksyutova, 2014, published in Geography and Natural Resources, 2014, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 82-90.

REGIONAL PROBLEMS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND NATURAL RESOURCES UTILIZATION

GEOGRAPHY AND NATURAL RESOURCES Vol. 35 No. 1 2014

56 BASHALKHANOVA, MAKSYUTOVA

INPUT DATA AND INVESTIGATIVE TECHNIQUES

We used, as input data, long-term reference data [13, 14] as well as meteorological observations of mean monthly and daily air temperatures for the period 1981−2010 from the climate archives maintained by the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydro-meteorological Information – World Data Center (VNIIGMI−WDC) [15]. Air temperature variations were analyzed for a cold period (October−April) which exhibits the most conspicuous rise in air temperature. The study used meteorological stations (31) located in areas of different climate discomfort.

The number of days with mean daily air temperatures below 8 and −25 ºC, and also the periods with lower temperatures (below −30, −35, −40, −45 ºC) were inferred from mean monthly air temperature data for the period from 1981 to 2010 using the method of histograms [16]. At some of the meteostations (Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk, Abakan, Severo-Yeniseisk, Orlik, and Verkhneimbatskoe), where the mean monthly air temperatures did not drop below −25 ºC, the number of such days was not possible to determine graphically. On the other hand, low-temperature periods were revealed using observations from the meteostations (Irkutsk, Kirensk, Lensk, Turukhansk, Vitim, Yakutsk, and Dudinka), based on analyzing daily data.

A characterization of daily-resolution air temperatures used the mean number of days with temperatures below −25 ºC. Variations in mean monthly air temperature, the number of days with temperatures below the prescribed limits and in degree-days were regarded as deviations of the period of the last several decades (1981−2010) from long-term values as reported in reference publications, covering the periods 1881−1960 [13] and 1881−1980 [14].

Within the period 1981−2010, the tendencies of change in the number of days with temperatures below −25 ºС and in mean monthly air temperatures were examined using the linear regression (trend). The regression coefficient b characterizes the rate of variation in the quantity under investigation. As the measure of significance of the trend, we used the reliability of approximation of the trend (R2), reflecting its contribution to the variance of the initial process. To assess the statistical significance of the variation used the 5% level at which the hypothesis of the absence of a trend is rejected.

RESULTSA principal formation factor for the discomfort level

is provided by air temperature. As opposed to long-term values, its mean values for the period 1981−2010 almost always showed a positive deviation (Table 1). It is evident from the table that the largest values of deviations are characteristics for the data before 1960. It is apparent that the dominant decrease in the deviations (above the dash) is due to the lengthening of the series of observations. Specialized investigations devoted

to the accuracy of climatic indicators [16] found that the period of air temperature averaging 50−70 years in length most closely reflects the cyclic character of the oscillations. In this case, however, it does not always happen that the decrease in the value of the deviations is clearly dependent on the lengthening of the series of observations.

Overall, the largest rise in winter temperatures on the territory of East Siberia is different both seasonally and spatially. The highest values of the deviations were recorded from December to February, peaking in February–March in the south of the macroregion, and in January–February in its northern part. Their smallest values, both positive and negative, are characteristic for the conditions of severe and extremely severe discomfort. For the past 30-year-long period, the southern part of the macroregion experienced the most conspicuous rise in winter temperatures, especially in depression landforms.

It is known that a rise in winter temperatures under conditions of East Siberia is, almost without exception, associated with the anticyclonic attenuation, an increase in wind velocity, and with the intrusion of air masses from the west and north-west. In his investigation into the variation of mean long-term air temperature, N.I. Sergeev [17] found that the most intense advection of heat (up to 4 ºC per day), and a significant rise in mean monthly temperatures across the southern part of East Siberia were taking place when the altitudinal baric field was directed along the meridian. Also, the northern areas of Krasnoyarsk krai, and the central and northern areas of the Sakha Republic (Yakutiya) were in the zone where the mean advection of heat was close to zero.

In depression landforms, especially in deeply dissected topographic forms, the powerful ground-level inversions did not decay. Because of cessation of cooling, short-lasting periods of warming did not contributed to a marked rise in mean monthly temperatures. For instance, the difference of mean temperatures between neighboring depressions (the Kyzyl and Tunka meteostations) was for different periods: 6.4 ºC [13]; 5.4 ºC [14], and 3.3 ºC (1980–2010). It is clear that for the period from 1980 to 2010 these spatial differences decreased, but the deviations of the January temperatures between the periods (see Table 1) were nearly by a factor of 2.5 higher for Kyzyl than for Tunka. A comparison of the deviations for different periods (see Table 1), coupled with a significant rise in mean monthly temperatures in the south of the macroregion (from 4.4 to 8.2 ºC for Kyzyl), the northern depressions (Oimyakon, and Verkhoyansk), and in the valleys (Olenek, Yakutsk, and Zhigansk), bear witness to a considerable deviation of the circulation processes from the mean ones.

Thus, N.N. Kononova [18], based on investigating the circulation mechanisms of the northern hemisphere, found that in the Siberian sector there occurred a zonal circulation epoch within 1981–2008. Furthermore, an important role was played by the groups of longitudinal

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INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING A COLD PERIOD

Table 1. Deviation of the mean monthly air temperature for 1981–2010 from long-term means [13, 14] in conditions of different climatic discomfort

MeteostationMonths

X XI XII I II III IVModerate discomfort

Irkutsk 1.31.3

2.83.2

3.13.4

2.83.1

3.73.9

3 3.3

1.51.5

Krasnoyarsk 0.40.3

1.62

2.63.3

1.63.1

2.63

1.82

0.40.2

Abakan – 0.2

– 2.1

– 2.9

– 2.8

– 3.2

– 3.7

– 1.2

Tunka 0.51

2.12.4

1.72.3

1.42

2.33.3

1.93.1

1 1.5

Strong discomfortKirensk 0.3

00.40.5

1.31.3

0.80.8

1.50.9

1.11.1

0.80.5

Severo-Yeniseisk 0.30.3

1.41.2

1.31.1

0.50.5

2.40.6

1.71.5

–0.2–3

Kyzyl 1.21.6

2.72.5

3.44.4

3.55.1

4.57

5 8.2

2.54.4

Erzin 1.51.6

2.13.7

2.83.1

2.63.9

3 3.5

2.63.8

2.93.8

Orlik 0.91.2

0.90.9

1.21.7

0.51

1.52.4

1.11.8

1 1.5

Very strong discomfortIgarka 0.2

0.40.81.2

0.81.8

1.21.7

0.80.1

2.12.1

–0.20.7

Turukhansk 0.70.5

1.21.4

2 2.3

1.81.7

0.70.2

1.81.9

0.70.7

Vitim 0.2 –0.2

1.31.7

1.11

0.41.2

3.31.9

2.22.1

1.41.5

Lensk –0.3–0.5

0.91.2

1.11.2

1.52.3

3.51.6

2.22.4

0.81.1

Verkhneimbatskoe 0.60.7

0.91.4

1.62

0.91.6

1.60.6

2.12.1

0.40.8

Yanov Stan – 0.8

– 1.4

– 2.4

– 0.9

– 0.2

– 2.6

– 1

Severe discomfortTura 0.1

0.71.92.1

0.81.4

1.61.8

2.20.6

1.81.7

0.41.3

Yakutsk 0.20.1

1.31

1.92.2

4 4.6

2.22.2

2.12.1

2.42.6

Oimyakon 0.8 –0.3

1.80.7

0.22

1.13.6

1.32.3

1.60.7

1.61.2

Zhigansk –0.6–0.9

0.80.3

0.61.6

1.52.7

1.61.1

1 1.1

0.91.1

Srednekolymsk 1.10.8

2 1.6

1.21.1

1.21.5

1.11.1

1.61.1

1.21.1

Mirnyi 0.20

1.10.8

0.61

1.41.9

2.70

0.61

1.40.7

Zyryanka 1.11.2

1.91.9

0.51.3

0.31.8

0.81.5

1.81.7

1 1.1



in the sum of the number of days with the mean daily temperature below were detected only at two stations: at Yakutsk, under severe discomfort, a decrease by 3.2 days for 10 years, and at Turukhansk under conditions of very severe discomfort, an increase by 5.2 days for 10 years, with the contributions from the trend equal to 0.12 and 0.13, respectivelyс (see figure). At the other stations, the variation in the number of days with the mean daily temperature below –25 ºC is statistically insignificant.

The spatial differences are more clearly pronounced in the variation in mean daily temperatures below –30, –35, –40, –45 ºС (Table 3). The identified decrease in the number of days with very low temperatures is reflected in the positive deviations of mean monthly temperatures (see Table 1), and tendencies for an increase in the mean annual temperature trend for the last several decades as pointed out in many publications [8, 9].

The duration of the heating season changed little. Its fluctuations of up to nine days in a year make up less than 4%. However, not only did a reduction in low-temperature period cause an increase in the values of mean monthly temperatures, but it also influenced the mean air temperature of the heating season. The product of the deviations of mean temperatures for the heating season by its duration shows a marked change in degree-days. Given the cyclic character of the variation in temperature regime, it is too premature to suggest a reduction in thermal energy expenditures for heating buildings in the south of the macroregion. Assessments of its annual variations having regard to changes in

northern and southern processes which appear to be responsible for the formation of the macroregion’s thermal regime.

A significant influence upon the spatial differences of the discomfort level can be exerted by a change in the number of days with low (below –25 ºC) temperatures, and by the duration of the heating season. A comparison of the respective mean values according to long-term data and for the period 1981–2010 reveals their different behavior for different discomfort levels (Table 2). The variations in the deviations have positive (increase) as well as negative (decrease) values. The largest decrease in the number of days with mean daily temperatures below –25 ºC corresponds to the southern and middle parts of the macroregion in conditions of moderate, strong and very strong discomfort. On the other hand, the identified range of variation is in general agreement with the predetermined limits of assessment of a corresponding climate discomfort level [5]. In Irkutsk, for example, from the long-term perspective [14], the number of days with mean daily air temperatures below –5 ºC was 19, averaging 8 for the period 1980–2010. The two values fall within the same range (0–20 days). For the northern territories there occurred a slight variation in this indicator with an increase in positive deviations under conditions of extremely severe discomfort.

Year-to-year variations in the sum of the number of days with mean daily temperatures below –25 ºC within the period 1981–2010 were considered for seven stations (Dudinka, Yakutsk, Turukhansk, Vitim, Lensk, Kirensk, and Irkutsk). Statistically significant variations

Note. Above the dash – deviation from values acc [14], below the dash – acc [13]. “–” – NA.

Table 1. (Contd).

MeteostationMonths

X XI XII I II III IVVerkhoyansk –0.9

–11.61.4

1.92.2

2.83.2

1.81.9

0.70.5

0.90.9

Olenek 0.80.4

3.73.1

3.13.8

5.25.2

4.84.2

3.94

1.81.8

Agata –0.10.1

0.70.8

0.72.2

1.41.9

1.7 –0.1

2 1.9

0 1.4

Extremely severe discomfortDudinka 0.3

0.10.60.9

0.51

1.11.1

0.3 –0.5

1.61.4

–0.10.4

Khatanga – 0.1

– 1.2

– 1.1

– 2.3

– –0.8

– 2

– 1.9

Volochanka 0.70.5

2 1.7

–0.30.5

1.31.9

–0.1–1

1.81.9

0.10.7

Tiksi – –0.5

– 0.5

– 1.4

– 3.1

– 1.7

– 0

– –0.2

Saskylakh –0.4–1.1

0 –0.1

–1.2–0.5

0.80.8

–0.6–0.7

0.70.7

0 –0.2

Deputatskii 0.2 –0.6

1.3 –0.4

1.22.7

2.22.4

1.43

1.10.2

1 1.1

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wind regime, the winter ventilation temperature and a number of other associated parameters would be of interest in governance decision-making. Deviations of degree-days on the northern territories are less clearly pronounced.

Next, we examine in greater detail the changes in seasonal variations in the number of days with the mean daily temperature (t) below –25 ºC and the mean monthly air temperature for 1981–2010 (Table 4).

At Dudinka, the seasonal variation in the number of days (t below –25 ºC) has the lowest values in January

(16.4). From year to year, in January this value varies from 2 to 28 days, with the standard deviation (σ) of 6.5. The study revealed no statistically significant trends for all months of the cold period.

At Yakutsk, abrupt changes are conspicuous in the seasonal variation in the number of days with t below –25 ºC. In general, a stay in the open air would be excluded from December through February and limited to two third of a month in November, and to one third of March. In January, year-to-year variations of this value are minor in nature (from 25 to 31 days) at σ =

Table 2. Deviation of the number of days with air temperature below definite limits and of degree-days for 1981–2010 from mean long-term values [13]

MeteostationDeviation of the number of days with temperature

Degree-daysbelow –25 ºC below 8 ºC

days % days % number %Moderate discomfort

Irkutsk –11 58 –7 3 738 34Tunka –10 21 –2 1 520 18

Strong discomfortKirensk –2 4 –6 2 669 21Kyzyl –10 13 –8 4 815 22Erzin –15 17 –3 1 295 8

Very strong discomfortIgarka 5 7 –8 3 64 2Turukhansk –6 10 –1 0 190 5Vitim –14 20 –4 2 404 12Lensk 5 9 –6 2 419 12Yanov Stan –27 31 –5 2 94 2

Severe discomfortTura 1 1 –6 2 474 10Yakutsk –7 6 –6 2 654 13Oimyakon –1 1 5 2 217 3Zhigansk 1 1 3 1 190 3Srednekolymsk 5 4 –1 0 363 6Mirnyi –6 7 –9 3 343 9Zyryanka 4 3 –2 1 423 8Verkhoyansk 3 2 4 1 193 3Olenek 0 0 –8 3 885 14Agata 17 17 –2 1 438 9

Extremely severe discomfortDudinka –3 4 –6 2 327 7Khatanga 9 8 –5 2 256 5Volochanka 11 12 6 2 227 4Tiksi 12 12 0 0 237 5Saskylakh 16 14 –4 1 20 0.4Deputatskii 0 0 4 1 262 4



1.5. Besides, November shows a steady tendency for a decrease in the number of days with t below –25 ºC at the rate of 2.7 days for 10 years, with the contribution from the trend equal to 0.22. A statistically significant increase in the number of days with t below –25 ºC occurs in December at the rate of 0.7 day for 10 years, with the contribution from the trend equal to 0.09.

Statistical characteristics of the number of days with t below –25 ºC, obtained at the meteostations located in conditions of very strong discomfort (Turukhansk, Vitim, and Lensk) are rather similar. However, the number of days with t below –25 ºC from December to February is smaller for Turukhansk. In general, for the season their duration smoothes out on account of the exceedances in the other months. In January, from year to year, the number of days with t below –25 ºC varies at Turukhansk from 3 to 28, with σ equal to 6.3,

at Vitim from 4 to 29 with σ = 6.9, and at Lensk from 1 to 30 with σ = 7.3.

Statistically significant trends are observed at Turukhansk in October, December and April. An increase in the number of days with t below –25 ºC by two days is recorded in December, with the contribution from the trend equal to 0.07, and a decrease by 0.3–0.5 day for 10 years is observed in October and April, with the contribution from the trend equal to 0.13 and 0.14, respectively. According to data from meteostation Vitim, statistically significant trends are recorded in December when the number of days with t below –25 ºC increases by 2.8 days for 10 years, with the contribution from the trend equal to 0.15. At Lensk, no statistically significant trends were detected for all months of the cold period.

At Kirensk, the number of days with t below –25 ºC

Table 3. Deviation of the number of days with mean daily air temperature in different ranges for 1981–2010 from mean long-term values [13]

MeteostationDeviation of the number of days with temperature

below –30 ºC below –35 ºC below –40 ºC below –45 ºCdays % days % days % days %

Dudinka –1 2 –2 7 –1 9 0 0Yakutsk –12 2 –17 22 –24 45 –20 69Oimyakon 0 0 3 3 –1 1 –7 12Verkhoyansk –1 1 –1 1 –8 9 –18 30Turukhansk –5 13 –4 18 –4 36 –2 50Vitim –8 17 –10 30 –12 50 –17 85Kirensk –3 8 –4 18 –3 27 –2 50Irkutsk –3 60 –2 85

Note. Printed in bold type are the stations for which the variation in the number of days was determined graphically.

Variation in the sum of the number of days with the mean daily air temperature below –25 °С at some stations for 1981–2010.Stations: (1) Turukhansk, (2) Yakutsk, (3) Irkutsk, (4) linear trend.

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increases in November–January from 6.4 to 16.5, decreasing gradually to 2.4 in March. In January, from year to year, this value varies from 4 to 27 days, with the standard deviation of 6.4. A statistically significant increase in the number of days with t below –25 ºC occurs in December at the rate of 3.1 days for 10 years, with the contribution from the trend equal to 0.19.

At Irkutsk, from November to February, there is a possibility of a decrease in mean daily temperature below –25 ºC, with the maximum of the number of days in January (3.7). Also, from year to year, the number of days varies from 0 to 14, with the standard deviation of 3.8. A statistically significant increase in the number of days with t below –25 ºC is recorded in February at the rate of 1 day for 10 years, with the contribution from the trend equal to 0.12.

The variations in mean monthly air temperature for the last several decades at each of the stations under consideration are characterized by an increase in October, and statistically significant values of about

1 °C for 10 years are recorded in conditions of extremely severe, severe and very strong discomfort.

In March and April, the tendencies are also positive but, in the main, statistically insignificant. In the other months of the cold period, the variations are oppositely directed. The southern part of the territory shows a significant decrease in air temperature in December at the rate of 0.8–2.6 °C for 10 years. This lends further support to the cyclic character of the air temperature variation. The mean monthly air temperature for the last several decades has been increasing for all months of the cold period at Yakutsk.

CONCLUSIONS

The identified characteristic properties of the formation of thermal regime on the territory of East Siberia for the last three decades (1981–2010) sufficiently thoroughly reflect the cyclic character of the atmospheric circulation. The largest positive

Table 4. Mean number of days with the air temperature below –25 ºС, rates of variation in the number of days with the temperature below –25 ºС, and the mean monthly air temperature for 1981–2010

MeteostationMonths

X XI XII I II III IVMean number of days with t below –25 ºС

Dudinka 1.1 10.2 14.7 16.4 14.8 11.9 3.9Yakutsk 0.3 18.9 29.6 30.4 26.0 8.5 0.0Turukhansk 0.4 8.3 13.9 14.7 11.7 4.7 0.6Vitim 0.0 7.1 16.0 18.0 12.3 3.0 0.0Lensk 0.1 9.0 17.9 18.9 13.5 2.2 0.0Kirensk 0.0 6.4 14.4 16.5 10.9 2.4 0.0Irkutsk 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.5 0.0 0.0

Rate of variation in the number of days with t below –25 ºC/10 yearsDudinka –0.1 –0.2 –0.2 0.9 1.6 –0.5 –1.1Yakutsk –2.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 –1.1Turukhansk –0.3 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 0.2 –0.5Vitim –0.06 –0.5 2.8 –0.1 –0.7 0.4Lensk –0.07 1.9 0.7 1.6 0.3Kirensk 0.5 3.1 0.7 –0.8 –0.3Irkutsk –0.009 0.2 0.3 1.0

Rate of variation in mean monthly air temperature (ºC/10 years)Dudinka 1.2 –0.7 –0.6 –0. 6 –1.5 0.2 0.9Yakutsk 0.9 1.6 0.5 1.3 0.08 0.8 0.8Turukhansk 1.0 –0.5 –1.3 –1.1 –1.3 0.6 0.9Vitim 0.3 0.4 0.4 –0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4Lensk 0.3 0.2 –2.1 –0.1 –0.4 0.2 0.4Kirensk 0.3 –0.1 –2.6 –0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4Irkutsk 0.4 0.3 –0.8 –0.7 0.2 0.4 0.4

Note. Printed in bold type are the statistically significant variations.



deviations of mean monthly temperatures from December to February bear witness to a frequent reversal of air masses, and to a reduction of the period of intense cooling of the underlying surface characteristic for the macroregion. A marked reduction in low-temperature periods contributes to a rise in mean monthly temperatures. This involves a certain rise in air temperature during the heating season, and a noticeable change in degree-days. Given the cyclic character of the variation in temperature regime, it is too premature to suggest a reduction in thermal energy expenditures for heating buildings in the south of the macroregion.

On the other hand, the temperature variations during the cold period had no substantial influence on the predetermined assessment limits for the climate discomfort levels of the macroregion. On the whole, the duration of the heating season remains within the limits of long-term values. The largest decrease in the number of days with the mean daily temperature below –25 ºC is recorded in the southern and middle parts of the macroregion in conditions of moderate, strong and very strong discomfort. The northern territories showed slight oscillations in this periodа, with an increase in positive deviations in conditions of extremely severe discomfort. The last three decades show a statistically significant decrease by 3.2 days for 10 years in conditions of severe discomfort at Yakutsk, and an increase by 5.2 days for 10 years in conditions of very strong discomfort at Turukhansk.

The anticipated decline in the degree of climate severity in connection with a certain decrease in the number of days with the mean daily temperature below –25 ºC can be made up by an increase in wind velocity which always accompanies the reversal of air masses. Besides, the identified range of variation in the number of days with t below –25 ºC occurs within the predetermined assessment limits for the corresponding level of climate discomfort.

Current climate fluctuations in the macroregion are among a number of important practical issues from the standpoint of their effects on the environment, the economic activities, and on the conditions of human life. Consideration for their cyclic changes will be useful for taking intra-regional managerial decisions.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work was done with financial support under

the project “Resource-climatic factors for sustainable development of regions of East Siberia” within the Program of the Earth Sciences Division of RAS (13.2).

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Documents

Influence of temperature variations during a cold period on the conditions of life of the population in East Siberia