ISSN 1062-8738, Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, 2009, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp. 416–418. © Allerton Press, Inc., 2009.Original Russian Text © V.I. Ermakov, V.P. Okhlopkov, Yu.I. Stozhkov, 2009, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Fizicheskaya, 2009, Vol. 73, No. 3, pp. 434–436.

416

Influence of Cosmic Rays and Cosmic Dust on the Atmosphere and Earth’s Climate

V. I. Ermakov

a

, V. P. Okhlopkov

b

, and Yu. I. Stozhkov

c

a

Central Aerologic Observatory, Rosgidromet, Dolgoprudnyi, Moscow Region, Russia

b

Skobel’tsyn Research Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow, 119992 Russia

c

Lebedev Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119991 Russia

e-mail: stozhkov@fian.fiandns.mipt.ru

Abstract

—The results of studying the cosmic ray fluxes in the Earth’s atmosphere and their influence on theatmospheric electricity, as well as the effect of cosmic dust entering the terrestrial atmosphere from the inter-planetary space on the Earth’s climate are briefly discussed. A forecast of the climate cooling in the forthcoming50 years is given.

DOI:

10.3103/S1062873809030411

INTRODUCTION

Fluxes of material particles keep coming from thespace interplanetary to the Earth’s atmosphere; theseare cosmic rays (CRs) and cosmic dust (particles withsizes from 0.001

µ

m to several tens or hundreds ofmicrometers). This paper shows that the main parame-ters of atmospheric electricity are related to cosmicrays, while the global cloudiness, albedo, and theEarth’s climate are associated with cosmic dust.

COSMIC RAYS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE ATMOSPHERE

CRs are the main source of atmospheric ionizationat altitudes from 0 to 60 km. They produce the so calledcolumnar ionization, at which ions and electrons aredistributed along the ionizing particle track. The trackthickness does not exceed 0.1 mm during the first~100

µ

s. In the course of time, ionized columns widen,thus providing total air ionization.

Owing to the air ionization, CRs play a key role inthe atmospheric electricity. They maintain the electricconductivity of the atmosphere in the altitude range of0–60 km. They are necessary for operation of the globalelectric current circuit and formation of ground nega-tive charge of ~6

×

10

5

C on the Earth’s surface.Ionizing the atmosphere, CRs play an important role

in the formation of thunderstorm clouds. They also par-ticipate (through columnar ionization) in the formationof stepwise and arrow-shaped lightning leaders. Linearlightning discharges occur mainly along ionized CRtracks.

Some results of studying CRs in the Earth’s atmo-sphere were reported in [1, 2]. The results of studyingthe role of CRs in the atmospheric electricity and phys-ics of thunderstorm clouds were presented in [3–5].

Thunderstorm clouds are an electric generator in theglobal electric current circuit. About 2000 thunder-storms occur simultaneously on the Earth. They feedthe global electric circuit with a current of ~2000 A.During the operation of the global electric current cir-cuit, the negative discharge accumulated on the Earth’ssurface by lightnings is partly neutralized by the posi-tive current from the atmosphere to the Earth’s surface.

A physical mechanism of the thunderstorm cloudformation, where CRs play a key role, was proposed in[5]. The development of a thunderstorm cloud is usu-ally divided into three stages: cumulus, growth (matu-rity), and dissipation. The cumulus stage is character-ized by the existence of powerful upstreams of ionizedwarm humid air and occurrence of first lightnings. Thelightnings run mainly along ionized CR tracks. Light-ning onsets initiate CR extensive air showers (EAS). Inthe maturity stage, the electric activity, upstreams, andthe cloud humidity increase, whereas in the dissipationstage air upstreams fade away, electric activitydecreases, and precipitation occurs.

COSMIC DUST IN THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE

In annual revolution around the Sun, the Earthpasses through a zodiacal dust cloud. The cloud is situ-ated between the Sun and the Mars orbit and is concen-trated in the ecliptic plane. Comets are main suppliersof the dust for this cloud. When approaching the Sun ata distance of less than 2 AU, they form gas tails, i.e.,become free of frozen coats consisting of dust and gas.The sunlight scattered at dust particles is called thezodiacal light.

During the Earth motion through the zodiacal cloud,the cosmic dust arrives (under the gravity) at the Earth’satmosphere. Large dust particles are destroyed in colli-sions with atmospheric atoms to form meteor tracks.

BULLETIN OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES: PHYSICS

Vol. 73

No. 3

2009

INFLUENCE OF COSMIC RAYS AND COSMIC DUST ON THE ATMOSPHERE 417

The cosmic dust entering the atmosphere graduallyprecipitates on the Earth’s surface. According to vari-ous observations, the amount of precipitated dust isfrom 4

×

10

2

to 10

4

tn/day.Cosmic dust particles contain in large amounts such

elements as iron, magnesium, sulfur, aluminum, cal-cium, and sodium. Dust particles containing Mg, S, andNa atoms are efficient condensation nuclei of the atmo-spheric water vapor. Cloud droplets are formed onthem.

The more cosmic dust arrives at the atmosphere, themore droplets are formed and the thicker cloud blanketof the Earth grows. Clouds dissipate solar radiationback into space. An increase in the amount of cosmicdust arriving at the atmosphere reduces the solar radia-tion flux on the Earth’s surface. As a result, the climategrows colder.

EFFECT OF COSMIC DUST ON THE EARTH’S CLIMATE

The amount of cosmic dust arriving at the Earth’satmosphere depends on the mutual position of the plan-ets whose gravitational fields influence the motion ofcomets. Depending on their disposition, the number ofcomets coming to a particular region of the zodiacalcloud across which the Earth’s orbit passes varies withtime; thus the periodicities observed in the planet dis-position should manifest themselves in the variations ofcosmic dust concentration and, correspondingly, in theEarth’s climate.

The periodicities in the disposition of planet pairscan be precisely calculated. To determine the time peri-odicities in the changes in the global climate of theEarth, we used the temperature data of the global net-work of meteorological stations for the period 1880–2007. A spectral analysis of these data showed them tohave a line spectrum with the following main periods:195.9, 64.5, 33.1, and 21.0 yr. They correspond to theperiods in the disposition of the following planet pairs:197.9 yr (Neptune–Pluto), 62.7 yr (Uranus–Pluto),33.4 yr (Saturn–Pluto), and 20.7 yr (Jupiter–Uranus).The discrepancies between periods calculated from thetemperature data and the data on planet pairs are 1–3%.

We used the periodicities found in the temperaturedata to forecast the Earth’s climate changes for thenearest 50 yr. The forecast is presented in Fig. 1, wherethe monthly mean temperature data of the global net-work of meteorological stations are depicted over aperiod of 1880–2007, and the smooth curve is the sumof the four noted spectral lines found in these data.These lines were summed taking into considerationtheir amplitudes, periods, and phases. The smoothcurve is extrapolated for ~50 years. It can be seen inFig. 1 that the global climate must grow colder in thenearest 50 years. This conclusion goes contrary to fore-casts of future anthropogenic warming of the climate,according to which the Earth is threatened by globalwarming.

Observations show that the warming ceased since1998 and the temperature rise stopped. Currently, slightglobal decrease in temperature is observed. Figure 2shows the climate changes that have occurred in the lastdecades. It can be seen that climate warming has ceasedin this time period. The effect of cosmic dust on theEarth’s climate was considered in [6–8].

CONCLUSIONS

The cosmic rays and cosmic dust arriving from theinterplanetary space at the Earth’s atmosphere affectnot only the atmospheric processes but also the wholelife on Earth. These factors affect both slow changes ofthe global climate of the Earth and short-time anoma-lous effects, primarily, thunderstorms (which alwaysaccompany hurricanes, gales, and typhoons).

In the nearest 50 years, the global climate shouldgrow colder rather than warmer, as the anthropogenichypothesis predicts.

To forecast changes in the weather and climate, it isexpedient to monitor meteor fluxes and zodiacal light.

0.8

1880 1920

∆

T

, °C

0.40

–0.4–0.8

1960 2000 2040

Years

Fig. 1.

Forecast of changes in the Earth’s climate for thenearest 50 years: monthly mean values of changes in theglobal near-surface temperature; smooth curve is the sum ofthe main four harmonics calculated up to 2050.

0.8

1980 1990

∆

T

, °C

0.4

0

2000 2010

Years

1985 1995 2005

0.6

0.2

Fig.2.

Variations in the monthly mean values of the globalnear-surface temperature in recent years. The smooth curvepresents the data approximated by a 150-point second-ordersliding polynomial.

418

BULLETIN OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES: PHYSICS

Vol. 73

No. 3

2009

ERMAKOV et al.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was supported in part by the RussianFoundation for Basic Research, project nos. 07-02-01019 and 08-02-10018k, and the program “NeutrinoPhysics” of the Presidium of the Russian Academy ofSciences.

REFERENCES

1. Charakhch’yan, A.N., Bazilevskaya, G.A., Stozh-kov,

Yu.I., and Charakhch’yan, T.N.,

Kosmicheskie luchiv stratosfere i okolozemnom prostranstve v period 19-goi 20-go tsiklov solnechnoi aktivnosti: Tr. FIAN

(CosmicRays in the Stratosphere and Near-Earth Space duringthe 19th and 20th Solar Activity Cycles: CollectedWorks of FIAN), Moscow: Nauka, 1976, vol. 88, p. 3.

2. Stozhkov, Yu.I., Svirzhevskii, N.S., Bazilevskaya, G.A.,et al.,

Arktika i Antarktika

(Arctic and AntarcticRegions), Moscow: Nauka, 2004, issue 3(37), p. 114.

3. Ermakov, V.I.,

Proc. 9th Int. Conf. on Atmospheric Elec-tricity,

St.-Petersburg, 1992, p. 485.4. Ermakov, V.I.,

Nauka Zhizn’

, 1993, no. 7, p. 92.5. Ermakov, V.I. and Stozhkov, Yu.I., Physics of Thunder-

storm clouds,

Preprint of FIAN

, Moscow, 2004, no. 2,p.

38; http://ellphi.lebedev/ru/66. Ermakov, V.I., Okhlopkov, V.P., and Stozhkov, Yu.I.,

Kratk. Soobshch. Fiz. FIAN

, 2006, no. 3, p. 41.7. Ermakov, V.I., Okhlopkov, V.P., and Stozhkov, Yu.I.,

Vestn.Mosk. Univ., Ser. 3: Fiz., Astron.,

2007, no. 5, p.

41;http://www.phys.msu.su/rus/research/vmuphys/archive/

8. Lambert, F., Delmonte, B., Petit, J.R., et al.,

Nature

,2008, vol. 452, issue 7187.