12/7/2016 FOOTER GOES HERE 1

Indonesia Clean Energy Development (ICED II)

Jakarta, December 8, 2016

ICED II provides technical assistance to 166 clean energy projects pipeline (per June 2016):

• Capacity equivalent to 1,675 MW• Leveraged public and private

sector investment of US$ 3,328 Million

• Estimated GHG emission reduction equivalent to 4,462,824 Ton/year

• Access to modern energy for 16,810,794 people

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USAID-ICED II

Indonesia Clean Energy Development Program

ICED II is USAID funded program, launched in May 2015 and will run until 2020, to support the Government of Indonesia in clean energy development (policy framework & regulation, technical assistance, capacity building). This second phase is a continuation of ICED I program (2011 - 2015).

1. Potential of Solar PV Penetration into the Grid System

2. Case Study on Solar PV Curtailment

3. Learning Curve of Grid Integration (Low to High Penetration)

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Outline

a. National Rural Electrification Program: SHS, Centralized Solar

PV, On-Grid

b. PLN Solar PV Program: Stand-Alone, Hybrid System, Sehen

Program.

c. Remote Application: BTS, Water Pumping, Health Center, etc.

d. Feed-in Tariff & Quota of Solar PV Mechanism (Ministry Decree ESDM

No. 17 year 2013)

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Solar PV Development & Application in

Indonesia

Total installed Solar PV system in Indonesia up to 2015 is 80 MWp,

consist of 71 MWp Off-Grid system and 9 MWp On-Grid System.

(Sources EBTKE 2016)

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Remote & Small Applications

Base Transceiver System

Solar PV RooftopSolar PV Streetlight

Solar PV Boat-lighting

Water Pumping PUSKESMAS (Health Center)

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Utility and Large Scale

• The regulation targeted to install up to 140 MWp On-Grid system

distributed in 80 locations in 22 provinces.

• The results only 2 projects constructed (Kupang 5 MWp and

Gorontalo 2 MWp, and other 4 projects each 1 MWp just signed

PPA with PLN.

• The regulation is annulled in 2015 by the Supreme Court

(considered about the local content and contract timeline issue).

• ESDM just released the revision of the FIT of Solar PV for the 1st

batch under the Ministry Decree No 19 year 2016.

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Previous FIT and Quota of Solar PV Mechanism(Ministry Decree ESDM No. 17 year 2013)

• Targeted for the 1st batch to tendering total quota up to 250 MWpbase on “first come first served” using online application basis.

• Several limitations applied, such as max. 20 MWp for every bidder for quota each region above 100 MWp, or max. 20% for every bidder if the quota each region between 10 - 100 MWp. No limitation if quota each region below 10 MWp. Each developer limits only max. 3 quota regions for each batch, except no other bidder submit proposal & approved within time limit.

• Fixed price, no escalation, unnegotiable, FIT included grid interconnection facility, and no escrow account obligation. FIT range from 14.5 – 25 cUSD depend on region.

• Contract timeline 20 years after COD and can be extended.

• Only regulate grid-tied system, not mentioned option for hybrid system.

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The New FIT Solar PV

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The New FIT Solar PV of 1st Batch Quota

Region1st Batch Quota

(MWp)FIT Cent $

Java 150.0 14.5

Bali 5.0 16.0 Lampung 5.0 15.0 Jambi-Bengkulu-South Sumatera 10.0 15.0

Aceh 5.0 17.0

Sumatera North 25.0 16.0

Sumatera West 5.0 15.5

Riau and Riau Isle 4.0 17.0

Bangka Belitung 5.0 17.0 Kalimantan West 5.0 17.0 Kalimantan South-Central 4.0 16.0 Kalimantan East-North 3.0 16.5

Sulawesi North - Gorontalo - Central 5.0 17.0

Sulawesi South - Southeast - West 5.0 16.0

NTB 5.0 18.0

NTT 3.5 23.0

Maluku & North Maluku 3.0 23.0

Papua & West Papua 2.5 25.0

Total capacity of 1st Batch Quota 250.0

• In the Draft RUEN (National Energy Planning), the

development of Solar PV project is targeted to grow

from 80 MWp today to reach 8 GWp installed capacity

in 2025, and 45 GWp in 2050.

• The Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources

(MEMR) during the BCEF launched several initiatives

and one of them announced the target of 5 GWp Solar

PV development program, estimating US$ 7 billion

investment to be achieved in 2019.

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Targeted Capacity on Solar PV

The study aims to provide analysis on the potential penetration of Solar PV power generation into PLN grid systems to support the development and regulatory framework.

Methodology on Low Penetration Approach

• Large Grid System

15% * Sub-Station Peak Load * System Load Factor.

• Mini/Isolated Grid System

Option 1 without Hybrid control over diesel : 20% of Day-Time Average Load (DTAL) in a system (DTAL = peak load * load factor).

Option 2 with Hybrid control over rental diesel : 60% of rented diesel capacity.

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ICED Study on Solar PV Penetration

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Solar PV Penetration Level

Two types of RE from the grid perspective:

• Baseload support (hydro, geothermal, biomass, biogas, WtE).

• Variable load (solar PV & wind).

RE penetration based on participation in the generation mix:

Level : Requires:

– Low < 35% - Negative load, grid self balances

– Mid > 35% < 60% - Generation Active Dispatch controls

– High > 60 % - Smart grids & active load management

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Results of Solar PV Low-Penetration

On PLN Grids System

Total Solar PV Potential (Low Penetration Approach) for

Large Systems and Mini/Isolated Grids (in MWac)

Grid SystemsSolar PV (MWac) Hybrid System

15% DTAL 20% Dgen 60% Dgen Rent

Large Grids 3,840

Mini/Isolated Grids 214 656

Available capacity for Solar PV on each system shall be coordinated with PLN,

as there may be system changes that affect available capacity while the

regulatory and permitting processes take place.

DTAL = Day Time Average Load Ggen = Diesel Generator Dgen Rent = Diesel Generator Rental

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No Grid SystemsPotential Penetration

(MWac)15% * SubS.PL * LF

1 Sumbagut (Northern Sumatera) 307

2 Sumbagsel (Southern Sumatera) 291

3 Jamali (Java, Madura, Bali) 2,835

4 Kalbar (East Kalimantan) 35

5 Kalseltengtimra (South, Central,

East Kalimantan

125

6 Sulbagut (Northern Sulawesi) 52

7 Sulbagsel (Southern Sulawesi) 174

8 Lombok 21

Total 3,840

Solar PV Penetration Potential in Large Grids System (Based RUPTL 2015, data projection 2016)

MWac = Mega Watt AC SubS.PL = Sub-Station Peak Load LF = Load Factor

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No Grids System Solar PV (MWac)(DTAL * 20%)

Hybrid System(Dgen Rent * 60%)

1Sistem Timor (Kupang-Soe-

Kafemenanu-Atambua) 11.5 21.2

2 Waingapu - Waikabubak 1.6 3.9

3 Rote Ndao 0.4 1.2

4Sistem Flores 2015 (Labuan

Bajo-Ruteng-Bajawa) 5.5 15.9

5 Ende 1.2 4.7

6 Maumere 1.6 5.8

7 Labuan Larantuka 0.6 1.8

8 Labuan Adonara 0.3 2.0

9 Lembata 0.4 2.1

10 Kalabahi (Alor) 0.6 4.8

Total Capacity in MWac 23.8 63.4

Solar PV Penetration Potential in Mini/Isolated Grids System

Example in Nusa Tengara Timur (NTT) (Based RUPTL 2015, data projection 2016)

MWac = Mega Watt AC Dgen DTAL = Day Time Average Load Rent = Diesel Generator Rental

1. The estimation did not consider:

a. Available thermal capacity of the feeders or sub-stations to

connect the new Solar PV

b. Day Time Minimum Load

c. Land availability for Solar power plants

d. Costs of PLN systems improvements/upgrades

e. Potential constraint of transmission capacity

2. The study did not include the assessment necessary for

determining project viability at a connection point.

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Limitations of the Analysis

• Based in PLN regulation (Decision of the Board of Directors) No.

0357.K/DIR/2014 dated 22 July 2014, every renewable energy

power plant proposal connect to grid PLN should conducting

Interconnection Study.

• The regulation include the guidelines describe the application,

review, and approval procedures and technical requirements for

connection of renewable energy power plant to the distribution

systems of PLN.

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Grid Interconnection Aspect

Grid system Peak Load : 60 MWGrid system Day-time Load : 40 MWSolar PV install capacity : 5 MWpInterconnection Point : 20 kV

Solar PV penetration ratio compare to day-time load is 11%.

Technical Issue: the grid only could off-take the average maximumpower of 2.4 MWp from Solar PV. When PV operating in maximumcapacity of 5 MWp, the frequency fluctuation and load sheddinghappened. This mean that the grid normally could only off-take about6%of penetration ratio.

Finding: the timing of load response capability of the Kupang Grid iswithin minutes due to manual operation of the Dispatching System.This manual dispatching system could not cover the drop of extremeramp-down event that could happened in seconds.

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Case Study on Solar PV 5 MWp in Kupang

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Visualization of Intermittency on Solar PV & Wind

Source: TropiTechSolution, picture use for visualization only.

• Approach: to re-enable the load response capacity of the Diesel

Generating Plant and allow for automatic and sequential

dispatching of the generators according to grid load behavior,

that would facilitate the integration of solar PV and other variable

generation units into the weak grids.

• Several technical requirements need to be improve or change on

the diesel operational procedure so it can have load response

capability or follow the grid load variation induced by the solar PV

plant.

• This solution can be adopted in any mini/isolated grids in

Indonesia that currently operate in manual dispatching system.

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Kupang Grid Solution with installing a Basic

Dispatching Control System

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Simulation Case of Wind Impact in Southern Sulawesi Grid

Case 1:

Wind power supply drop maximum until 60 MW

Southern Sulawesi Grid condition in 2018:

- Peak load : 1500 MW

- Base load : 1200 MW

- Total of peaking power plant: 500 MW

Based on simulation, wind power ramp-

down rate only permitted until 60 MW.

The frequency relay operate at 49.2 Hz

(when the load shedding occur)

Simulation Result:

Frequency = 49,215 Hz

(System Normal)

Case 2:

Wind power supply drop higher than 60 MW

Simulation Result:

Frequency = 49,197 Hz

(Frequency relay operate)

Source: PLN 2016

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Variable RE (Solar PV & Wind) and Grid Integration

Evolutionary process

The actual penetration levels in many countries are the result of an evolutionary process, where recent adopters have incorporated the lessons learned by predecessors and the adaptation speed has increased exponentially.

• Germany started in mid 80’s, today they are above 60%.

• Other European countries followed in the 90’s and 2000’s.

• Latest adopters like Portugal, has achieved 104 %. Italy is above 70%.

• Sweden, Denmark & Norway are close to 100%.

• Other Countries are building over the past experience:

• Costa Rica is at 99%. Nicaragua is above 54%. Uruguay has achieved 95%.

• USA is growing at 1 MW each 10 minutes. China has installed 114 GW in 3 years. Kenya has reached 51%. Morocco is over 30%...and many more.

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Variable RE (Solar PV & Wind) and Grid Integration

Evolutionary process

Low Penetration.

Basic Controls & Dispatching.

Medium Penetration

Increased generation flexibility & advanced grid management.

High Penetration

Smart Grids. Real time load and generation management. User integration.

The Challenge of Grid Integration Evolution in

Indonesia

Micro & Mini grids. Basic Controls.

Mini grids with embedded flexible generation & advanced grid management.

Smart Grids.

The interconnection of advanced micro and mini grids with embedded generation and highly sophisticated management, also integrated the user.

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USAID ICED – Indonesia Clean Energy Development II

Implemented by Tetra Tech, Complex World, Clear Solutions™

Menara Jamsostek, North Tower 14th Floor, Jl. Gatot Subroto No.38,

Jakarta12710, INDONESIA

Main: +62 21 5296 2325 Fax: +62 21 5296 2326

www.iced.or.id

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Thank You