PROSPECTIVE INDIAN DAMS ON INDUS RIVER-IMPACT ON

PAKISTAN

Prepared by: Muhammad Irfan Elahi

INTRODUCTION

Indus water basin system irrigates and supplies water to the lands of Pakistan and

Western India. Its major Tributaries include Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas Rivers.

Originating from Lake mansarovar in Tibat Plateu, it is largely fed by the snows and glaciers

of the Himalayas, Karakoram and the Hindu Kush ranges. The water streams of Shyok,

Shigar, Zanskar and Gilgit join Indus while passing through Ladakh and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Besides some tributaries like Chitral, Kabul, Gomal, Kurram river etc join Indus from the

western side.

1

The Indus river after travelling 3,180 Km falls in Arabian Sea close to Thatta. The Indus

River provides key water resources for the economy of Pakistan - especially the Breadbasket

of Punjab and Sindh province, which accounts for most of the nation's agricultural

production. After the independence the dispute arose between India and Pakistan after India

started manipulating water from eastern rivers, which was settled through Indus Water

Treaty, 1960. According to the accord, Indian right was established on three eastern rivers

namely Beas, Sutlej and Ravi and Pakistan had the control of three western rivers namely

1 Pakistan Indus Water Commission

Figure 1

Chenab, Jhelum and Indus. However, India has constructed a number of dams over western

rivers and continuing to do so. Recently, after the disputed Baghliar and Kishanganga dams

on Chenab and Jhelum, India has started the construction of Nimo Bazgo dam over Indus to

generate 40 MW of electricity. Although India is allowed to construct the dams according to

the treaty under certain conditions, yet this has caused a concern for the future water

availability to Pakistan. Pakistan has objected to the design of this dam and recently after

denial of India to change the design, Pakistan has decided to invoke the provision of

Arbitration. Besides this India has already constructed 10 projects on different tributaries of

Indus and plans to construct more on this river.

Research Question

In this backdrop the question is whether construction of dams over Indus river is expected to

create on impact over the water availability to Pakistan.

Indus Water Treaty 1960

The disputes on waters of the rivers which run within two are more countries is not an

unusual phenomenon. The upper riparian states claim absolute sovereignty due to territorial

jurisdiction, whereas the lower riparian states claim the sovereignty with regard to quantity

and quality of water, which is ultimately agreed as “restricted sovereignty”. Internationally

Helsinki Rules 1966 addressed this issue, which was superseded by the Berlin Rules on

Water Resources, in 20042. India is a middle riparian state for Indus River as it originally

comes out of Chinese territory and India has concerns over construction of dam near

Demchok Laddakh3. Similarly, the dispute over Indus Basin Water was resolved through

Indus Water Treaty, 1960 which envisaged as under:

a) Article II of the treaty authorizes unrestricted use of Eastern Rivers to India.

b) Pakistan is allowed limited Agriculture Use of 45,500 Acres from tributaries of

river Ravi namely Basantar, Bein, Tarnah and Ujh.

2 Dellapenna, Joseph W.. "The Berlin rules on water resources: the new paradigm for international water law". Universidade do Algarve. Through http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Rules_on_Water_Resources3 Journal of Defence Studies, Seng H. Sering, China building a Dam on the Indus near Laddakh,

According to Article III of the treaty Pakistan is allowed unrestricted use western rivers and

India was allowed limited uses, which are:

(a) Domestic Use (b) Non-Consumptive use(c) Agricultural Use (limited)(d) Generation of Hydro-electric Power(e) Storage Works (limited)4

Consequently, India has been constructing dams and hydro power units on the basis of run of

the rivers on all the western rivers, for non consumptive use. The following discussion will

clarify the extent of impact these dams are and will create on Pakistan.

Major Tributaries of Indus coming from Indian Territory

During the travel towards south, a number of tributaries join this mighty river. The tributaries

of Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas from Eastern side; Gomal, Kabul and Kurram etc

from the Western side and Chang Chen Mo River, Galwan River, Nubra River and The

Saltoro River from Northern side join during its course to Arabian Sea. From Indian held

Kashmir, the rivers of Shyok, Zanskar, Zora and Dras rivers contribute to Indus water besides

other sub tributaries where India has constructed small dams to generate electricity.

Indian Dams on Indus River

India had planned construction of 16 dams on Indus River out of which 10 are already

complete. A total of 10 projects stand completed and another 5 are planned over these water

tributaries shown in Fig 2.

4 The Indus Water Treaty 1960

The details of the projects over Indus River and its tributaries are listed as below5:

S.No Project Location Installed Capacity

Type Status

1. Kargil Suru River Ladakh, Indus Tributary

3.75 MW Weir Completed

2. Dras Dras River, Tributary of Indus 0.075 MW Weir Completed

3. Matayin Matayin Nallah, Sub Tributary of Indus River

0.12 MW Open Trench

Completed

4. Shaker Chicktan

Kinji Nala, Tributary of Indus 0.84 MW Trench Weir

Completed

5. Haftal I & II Haftal Nallah, Sub Tributary of Indus

2 MW Weir Completed

6. Hunder Nobra

Hunder Nallah, Sub Tributary of Indus

0.2x2=0.40 MW

Weir Completed

7. Sumoor Nobra

On Sumoor Nallah, a Sub Tributary of Indus River

0.10 MW Weir Completed

5 Pakistan Indus Water Commission

Figure 2

8. Khardung On Khardung Nallah, Tributary of Indus

0.30 MW Weir Completed

9. Bazgo On Bazgo Nallah, Sub Tributary of Indus

0.30 MW Weir Completed

10. Stakna Indus River Leh District 3.24 MW Open Trench

Completed

11. Chutak Suru River, Tributary of Indus River

44 MW Barrage Construction

12. Nimo Bazgo Indus River Main Alchi Town 45 MW Concrete Gravity

Construction

13. Dumkhar MHP

Dumkhar Nallah,a Tributary of Indus

0.50 MW Weir Construction

14. Marpachoo Sando Nallah, Tributary of Indus

3x.25=0.75 MW

Trench Weir

Construction

15 Dah Small HEP

Dah Nullah, tributary of Indus 2x3=6 MW Weir Construction

16 Hanu Small HEP

Hanu Nullah, tributary of Indus 2x2.5=5MW Weir Construction

The table indicates following points.

a) 14 out of 16 dams are of weir or open trench structure, which means no water storageb) Two dams have a structure which can hold the storage water.c) The hydroelectricity generation capacity of 14 dams indicate their smaller size

The dams mentioned in the above table are generally of the weir type, which is basically

constructed to create a fall for generation of electricity. Therefore, it is easy to conclude that

except Nimo Bazgo, rest of the projects do not have much of storage capacity. Pakistan has

lodged objections on the design of Nimo Bazgo Dam which was the published in the

newspapers recently.

Nimo Bazgo Dam

This is another disputed dam being constructed on river Indus and one of the two on which

the barrage structure has been constructed. Pakistan had objected on the height of gate which

has not been rectified by India and now Pakistan is moving to the arbitrator as per the

provisions of treaty. Pakistan has suggested that the gate height should be increased so that

the manipulative water availability to India should be at a minimum. Otherwise it will be easy

for them to create surges, i.e. holding water when it is needed and releasing it to create excess

of water in the river streams. Pakistan doesn’t want to give them this huge manipulative

capability. However, since India did not change the design and maintained the same height,

the matter was taken up by the Indus Water Commission and Pakistan is now invoking

arbitration clause. However, the construction is still going on. The salient features of the

Nimoo Bazgo dam are as follows:6

Location Village Alchi in Leh District of Jammu & Kashmir

Capacity 45 MW (3 X 15 MW)

Storage Capacity (Live) 44,000 AF*

Project Cost Rs.611.01 Crores (December 2005 Price Level)

Beneficiary States J&K

Year of Completion Schedule December 2010

The objection by Pakistan was not settled and now the matter is to be taken before the

arbitrator. In any case, the minimum water discharge during winters is around 1600 cusec in

6 National Hydroelectric Power Corporation, Govt. of India Enterprise http://www.nhpcindia.com/Projects/english/Scripts/Prj_Features.aspx?Vid=59*Data obtained from the submitted design by Indus Water Commission of India, through Pakistan Indus Water Commission

January, which translates into the maximum manipulative capacity of around 41612 acre feet7

of water, which will take 14 days to accumulate. Therefore, for 14 days India will be denied

of hydro power from this dam and even then this much water cannot cause floods in Indus.

Therefore, although the danger of any damage to Pakistan agriculture is minimum, yet this

violation on Indian part needs to be stopped by all means available under law.

Comparison with other Western Rivers

India has constructed dams over Chenab and Jhelum as well besides Indus. However, one

difference is that the dams over those two rivers are generally in the area where the river has

almost fully developed and large water flow is passing through them. Besides other

structures, India has constructed 3 major dams over Chenab where water can be stored. The

total capability of storage can impact Pakistan by denying supply of main Chenab for upto 7

days. The Nimoo Bazgo on the other hand can stop the supply of only one tributary, which

has an average flow of around 2100 cusec during winters8. More dams are being proposed on

Jhelum and Chenab rivers which might give the capability to India for manipulating the water

supply in the rivers at some critical juncture like sowing season and damage the crops.

Secondly, the surges if any introduced at Nimoo Bazgo can be controlled and tackled at

Tarbela and Jhelum at Mangla, but for Chenab there is no mitigating structure to control the

surges. Therefore, the impact of dams on Indus is negligible as compared to the dams on

Chenab or Jhelum. Pakistan has, however, raised the same objection as was raised on

Baghliar Dam on Chenab, in which the arbitrator had decided against Pakistan.S

Analysis of the water flows in the tributaries coming from India

To analyze the contribution of Indian tributaries to Indus river, the data of water flow at three

check points of WAPDA has been analyzed. The readings of water discharge through these

points are indicate9 that during the winter months from November to April 2011, the average

10,234 cusec, whereas the during summer months it was 72,903 cusec from both rivers. In

summer months, the water is in abundance i.e around 500,000 cusec at Kalabagh, whereas

during winters the water is scarce when the likely impact can be felt. The data from

Kharmong at Indus, Yugo at Shyok and Chekura at Indus downstream of Skardu is given

below:

7 Punjab Irrigation Department8 Indus Water Commissioner India report submitted along with design of Nimoo Bazgo dam.9 WAPDA Hydrological Department Reports submitted to Pakistan Indus Water Commission

Month Indus Kharmong Shyok Yugo Indus Kachura

Year 2011 2011 2011

December 4112 2417 10941

January 4187 1932 9003

February 4123 1922 9319

March 4477 1811 9445

April 5855 1663 9544

May 17704 6077 42370

June 44145 19721 75413

July 39286 36120 109720

August 37392 45282 114945

September 23012 28308 74677

October 11281 6700 20294

November 5140 3538 13153

The table indicates that average flows of water during winter are around 10,234 cusec

downstream of Skardu and from two major tributaries of India its around 6863 cusec.

TIME PERIOD INDUS KHAMONG

SHYOK AT YUGO INDUS KACHURA

FROM MAY TO OCT 28803 23701 72903

FROM NOV TO APRIL 4649 2214 10234

YEARLY AVERAGE 16726 12958 41569

a) Economic Analysis. The water coming from Indus irrigates lands of Punjab and

Sindh. The only two structures over Indus river in India which can store water are

Chutak and Nimoo Bazgo dams. The economic impact would be more if the water

from Indus tributary is diverted through these dams. Since they are constructed on

the run of the river, therefore, all the water is reaching Pakistan and not causing

any impact. The storage of water could be only at two sites and that too for the

limited period when the pond area is being filled. After that it will be run of the

river for future. The total live storage is 44,000 Acre Feet, which even if released

suddenly will not cause much damage due to low quantity of water and that too

will reach Pakistan after damaging Indian area. Indus has a short run in Indian

Territory and therefore, most of the water is contributed by tributaries in Pakistan.

Therefore, no economic impact is expected due to construction of these dams over

tributaries of Indus.

b) Political Analysis. A political sensitivity is attached to the water issues and both

Pakistani and Indian Governments are skeptical about these issues. India being an

upper riparian state has the advantage of initiating projects on western rivers as

YugoSkardu

Figure 3

Kachura

Kharmong

well, a few of which are being contested by Pakistan. The issues are also

highlighted because Pakistan has not been able to utilize its water and power

generation potentials fully. Due to this sensitivity, the governments take tough

stand and negotiations become more difficult as no one is ready to grant

concessions on any account and invariably previous issues including Nimoo

Bazgo will have to be settled by the third party. In Nimoo Bazgo case Pakistan

had delayed in completing the process for two years, i.e. from 2007 when the

objection was raised by Pakistan till 2009 when the matter was taken up again.10

c) Psychosocial Analysis. The scarcity of water and trust deficit between both the

countries has led people on both sides to believe that any action taken by the any

party will be disastrous to the other. This perception has been built due to past

experiences and now whatever the quantum of problem it raises the concern and

creates unrest particularly in the farmer’s community. This may be one of the

reasons that Nimoo Bazgo dam issue is being highlighted, although the experts

agree that it will not impact the water availability of Pakistan.

d) Legal Analysis. The Indus Water Treaty 1960 explains the methods of water

usage from the rivers of Indus Basin. According to that both countries are to agree

on the design and India is required to remove the objection. However, in Nimoo

Bazgo case Pakistan’s objection was rejected and now the legal course is being

taken. The objection is basically for increasing the height of gates so that usable

water which may be termed as manipulative water can be decreased.

e) Ecological. The waters from Indus river is not being stopped and therefore, no

impact on ecology of Pakistan is expected. However, in case of sudden release of

water by India, the damage can take place both in Indian and Pakistani area close

to river.

Conclusion

Prospective Indian dams on Indus River will not impact availability of Pakistan as all of them

have been constructed on run of river and 14 out of 16 planned dams do not have storage

facility. The water contributed to river is more from Pakistan than from Indian held Kashmir,

where the water flow is also meager. However, the objection by Pakistan is towards reducing

10 Pakistan Indus Water Commission

the Indian capability of live storage. The projects on other western rivers will have

substantive impact on Pakistan as compared to dams on Indus, as they have more storage

capacity and there is no dam on Chenab river to absorb surges.

Recommendation

Water shortage is being faced in both countries and it may aggravate further. There is every

likely hood that India will exploit its position of being in the upper riparian region. Pakistan

is required to curb this trend and keep it within such bounds that India doesn’t build up

structures to increase its storage capacity which can be manipulated. Therefore, following is

recommended.

a) The Ministry of Water and Power should engage competent lawyers to invoke the

jurisdiction of Arbitrator for settling the objection on design.

b) The engaged lawyer’s team should take up the task to clarify Article III of the

treaty which empowers India to construct structures for non consumptive use as in

this garb India keeps building its water storage capacity.

c) The public should be informed through media the correct perspective and affect of

Indian dams to satisfy the public and community that no discernable damage is

being done.

d) We may initiate projects of building up dams on Indus downstream Skardu, to

accommodate future surges if any, store water and generate energy. This may be

done through public and private partnership.